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PGA DFS Picks

Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Tom Kim Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks — We are all aboard the Tom Kim train at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

The PGA Tour returns to what almost feels like “regularly scheduled programming” with a third elevated event in just four tournaments. Of course, we should still appreciate that these fields are anything from the norm experienced in previous seasons. 44 of the worlds top 50 golfers will descend on the always tricky Bay Hill Club & Lodge. It is a venue comparable to a US Open setup and with the same caliber field to boot. An interesting backdrop as we dissect the selections for our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks.

Despite being an “off” week for the stars of the Tour, the Honda Classic provided a highly entertaining tournament. In contrast, the fact that the LIV Golf opening tournament at Mayakoba barely made a blip on the radar is telling. LIV will be shocked their Saturday ratings only hit 0.2 (here), which was some 5 times lower than at the Honda Classic. The simple fact is viewers want not just stars, but a reason and purpose for them to win and not just their paycheck. Undoubtedly, Chris Kirk’s victory in the playoff win over Eric Cole provided all the narratives for the week.

Our 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

We hope our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks are as well received as last year. At this event in 2022, we went agonizingly close with three of our six selections all looking likely title charges. Viktor Hovland (16/1), Gary Woodland (80/1), and Lucas Herbert (200/1) all presented likely winners during the tournament. They eventually finished 2nd, 5th, and 7th respectively. Woodland was actually the most likely, until finding a bunker and a double bogey on the 17th followed by another bogey down the last.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7696AUCkrIo

Gary Woodland reviews a tough finish to his 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational title tilt

That stumble allowed Scottie Scheffler to surprisingly snatch victory. Let’s hope our 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks produce more of the same with some better fortune.

Course Analysis

It is first essential to note that Bay Hill Club & Lodge possesses some of the highest correlation of prior course form to success on the PGA Tour. Only Augusta National and TPC Scottsdale hold a higher correlation. This unique and difficult test does have a few nuances which identify this and should guide our thinking entering our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.

You will hear a lot on driving distance being a predictive factor this week. This, however, does require a little more scrutiny than simply accepting that fact on face value. The true reasoning for this is not simply that a bomb and gouge approach will work here for our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. Rather, the extremely juicy 3in Ryegrass rough requires some strength to escape.

The distance off the tee also comes into play with the disproportionate number of approach shots that will occur from over 200 yards. Notably, the par 3s play as the longest on the regular PGA Tour stops. Simply, those longer hitters will be holding more loft in their hand for those long iron shots when approaching these firm and glassy fast greens.

Fairways are decently wide with an average width of 33 yards at the 300 yard mark and 39 yards at the 325 mark. Green complexes are also very large at an average of 7,500 sq ft. SG: PUTT is highly correlated to success here. This is predominantly due to where you are on the greens matters above simply GIR, as well as the lengthened approach shots into many holes.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks – Key Metrics

For our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, this all leads to a profile of heavy emphasis on approach. Driving distance is a bonus, but my key is finding value by honing into the 200+ yard approach metrics. SG: PUTT receives a boost given the inclement weather and large green complexes. SG: ATG is minimized due to thick rough surrounding the greens meaning the natural variation of lies mitigates those with excellent pitching ability.

Course Comps

As previously mentioned, course history should form a large part in your Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. There are another few courses which can guide our thinking. Do take a look at round 4 from last year’s tournament. That round suffered significant winds, which we expect to see here on both Friday and Saturday.

As mentioned, the US Open like setup should mean the majority of those venues can provide guidance. Host of the PGA Championship last year was Southern Hills, which has similar metrics with the added benefit of being a wind affected event. TPC Scottsdale also shows similarities to here. That occurs both on long approach play but also reasonably large fairways with significant penalty if straying too far. Trump National Doral is a fantastic guide for anyone whose form goes back that far.

Weather

Already well canvassed across many tipsters, it does look that a firm weather edge is forming. Friday afternoon in particular looks to feature some significant winds with gusts reaching over 35 mph. These high winds are then expected to remain through the 3rd round before easing slightly Sunday. A Thursday PM/Friday AM stack looks to be the play.

As always, this does come with risks. There is a chance that this particular front will arrive earlier than expected. This could result in any advantage being negated, and missed opportunities in the other half of the field. However, I always like to take an aggressive approach in these situations. We have tangible data to action here. And the closer we have got to tee time, the certainty of the Friday weather remaining exclusively in the afternoon has also increased.

https://www.windy.com/28.465/-81.510?27.913,-81.510,8,m:esBadTk

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Xander Schauffele
2.5pts E/W $23.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tyrrell Hatton
2pts E/W $36.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Tom Kim
2pts E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Gary Woodland
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.20

Patrick Rodgers
0.5pts E/W $176.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.00

Will Gordon
0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds) *available at 350/1 or longer without the places
3pts Top 20 $8.50

Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks Favourite

With Chris Kirk becoming the umpteenth golfer to win a week or two after featuring in our selections, I’m happy to take Xander here again to headline our Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks. Last time in our tips was at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, where he was just one shot off the lead heading into the final 9. A cold putter saw 6 of 9 putts missing by 25in or less. He finished just one shot outside the places for us. And not without some controversy too.

https://twitter.com/Top100Rick/status/1624793261545070593?s=20

Over the past two years, Xander ranks out 2nd of all PGA Tour players with over 300 measured approach shots 200+ yards. He sits only behind Sungjae Im. I prefer Xander for a couple reasons.

First, there are couple of par 4s here under 400 yards where Xander’s much better approach from 50-100 yards will come at an advantage. Secondly, Xander’s approach play of late has been nothing short of incredible.

Schauffele arrives here after four consecutive tournaments gaining 4+ strokes on approach. Over the last three months, Schauffele also tops the list for SG: APP in this field. He has never finished worse than 14th at a US Open, with 5/6 of those finishes an incredible 7th or better. And in his sole appearance at Bay Hill, he gained +6.5 strokes putting.

Tyrrell Hatton

Past champion Tyrrell Hatton was somewhat disappointing for us when selected last time at the Genesis Invitational. I’m willing to forgive him and go back to him here on a track obviously suited to his game. The real difficulty for Hatton last time out came simply not getting his entire game firing at the same time.

Thursday he was 14th SG: PUTT and 23rd SG: ATG, but 115th SG: APP and 91st SG: OTT.
Friday he was 27th SG: APP and 9th for SG: OTT, but 95th for SG: PUTT and 93rd SG: ATG.
Saturday he was 3rd SG: OTT, 5th SG: ATG, and 15th SG: PUTT yet 67th SG: APP.
Sunday he was 3rd SG: APP, but 46th SG: OTT, 39th SG: ATG, and 66th SG: PUTT.

You can see where I am going with this; he really just needs to put this all together at the same time and he can win. For SG: APP on shots 200+ yards, he sits 4th on the PGA Tour since 1 January 2023.

We saw shades of this at the correlated WM Phoenix Open, when finishing 6th in the elevated field. He gained a massive +6.72 SG: APP at that event and also holds a 15th in his only other appearance. Where course history matters most here, he sits 4th in this field for any golfer who has played 6 rounds or more.

I also love that last year he was one of only four golfers to shoot under par in a very windy final round. Complimenting that is a strong performance at a very windy Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, which is a Rolex Series event on the DP World Tour. With wind again a factor this year, he looks a great fit on a course he loves at a reasonable price.

Tom Kim

It is easy to come up with all manner of superlatives to describe this talented 20 year old. And, equally, easy to forget how young he still is given all he has already achieved in the sport. To snag him back at a price of 50/1 is great value, especially when you consider he is shorter odds than that at all 4 majors this year.

The only reason I can think why bookmakers rate him 30% less likely to win this event than a major is driving distance. However, even this is a tenuous position. Masters typically rewards driving distance as does the US Open. Further, the main interest for me with distance comes from the approach play.

Tom Kim sits in the Top 10 of this field for SG: APP over the last 12 months. He also sits 5th on the PGA Tour over the last 2 years for SG: APP over 200+ yards. He holds onto 5th if we look at the same metric since 1 January 2023.

Given he is plenty long in this field for me, the fact he is significantly positive for driving accuracy is another big tick. Keeping on the short grass will be a big advantage here if hitting approach shots from distance. We all know what he can do with the putter, including during the Presidents Cup hosted at Quail Hollow which features similar greens to here.

Gary Woodland – Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Value

As mentioned in the preamble, Woodland really should have won this tournament for us last year. Holding a one stroke lead with two holes to play, a double bogey-bogey finish in the wind was a disappointing end to an overall valiant effort.

Woodland’s approach play looks to be back to its best of late. He arrives here ranked 5th for SG: APP over the last 30 days. This includes gaining an insane +10.48 SG: APP in his last tournament. That sat only behind winner Jon Rahm and Luke List, with a substantial distance to the pack. To secure him here again at 80/1, as we did last year, seems a steal for a golfer whose two most recent victories have come at the correlated US Open and WM Phoenix Open.

The issue for Woodland, as it is in most cases, will come down to the putter. The fact he has gained strokes putting here in 4/5 of his most recent appearances makes this one of the better spots for him.

Patrick Rodgers

We enter the somewhat speculative plays, but hopefully with sufficient equity in the top finishes markets to justify a couple of flyers here. Rodgers heads those picks. Data Golf currently have Rodgers ranked as 59th in the world versus an OWGR of 140th. Disparities like that often have a way of eventually correcting themselves, and it could well be here.

Rodgers has a decent record at Bay Hill, making 6/7 cuts and finishing 7th in 2018. Correlated form includes 14th, 16th, and 17th at TPC Scottsdale and a perfect record of made cuts in the US Open.

Patrick Rodgers arrives here hitting his long irons well, sitting in the Top 10 on the PGA Tour for SG: APP 200+ yards since 1 January 2023. He has plenty of driving distance and consistently gains strokes both ATG and putting. This includes gaining SG: Putt in 6/7 appearances here.

Rodgers was T11 in round 4 scoring here in 2022, which was played in those torrid windy conditions. Recent correlated form of 14th at the WM Phoenix Open elevated event suggests the 175/1 price is simply too long.

Will Gordon

Finally, we round out this week’s selections with another dive down the board to Will Gordon. The PGA Tour returnee had a stellar amateur career and holds some good correlating form on Florida tracks particularly from the Korn Ferry Tour.

Gordon has gained strokes on approach and driving accuracy in four straight events. He sits 30th for SG: APP and 40th for SG: PUTT in this field over the last 30 days. But it is again the long iron performance which holds the most appeal. Gordon currently sits 17th on the PGA Tour over the last 12 months for SG: APP over 200+ yards. Having gained on the field for driving distance at every event since March 2022, he does so without often compromising driving accuracy so ticks the SG: OTT box in a big way.

His sole appearance here came in 2021 during his first full season. It was a tough year for him in general, so the 49th finish should be read in the light of coming during a weak period of form. Rather, I’ll focus on the positive that he gained +4.00 SG: PUTT during the tournament to sit 12th in that metric. Arriving here with much improved approach play and undoubtedly a more rounded player, he is worth a gamble at huge odds.

For an article with insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

Golf Betting 101: How To Pick More Winning Golfers

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting — Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WinDailySports

Make sure you SUBSCRIBE and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

This is the only show where the audience draft a team live to go against the experts! It is essential viewing to hear our thoughts and favourite plays, as well as the iconic first-round leader picks and Spencer’s famous super in-depth course breakdowns.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

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Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy

Meteorology

When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!

Agronomy

You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.

Summary

There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

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2 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Be sure to check out my Bettor Golf and PGA DraftCast episodes over here at WinDaily!

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – My initial lean on Monday was to exclude Rory McIlroy from my player pool, but with Justin Thomas’ ownership surging and the reduction in price that we do have with the entire top section of the board, I will pivot over to the Irishman – who likely will go off as one of the five highest owned golfers on the slate. To me, this is a spot where being neutral to McIlroy is my preferred choice versus trying to get overweight since my model doesn’t necessarily love his profile from top-to-bottom, but the total driving and par-five scoring might be enough for him to tear this venue apart.

Jon Rahm ($10,300) – Jon Rahm flashed the form we had become accustomed to for years at the St. Jude – gaining eight strokes with his ball-striking, and while the short game has been problematic for far too long this season, we see the Spaniard’s baseline putting increase from 31st in this field when given a random track to 13th on Bent. If the putter is actually heating up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the former top-ranked player in the world walks out of the BMW Championship victorious.

Other Thoughts – Justin Thomas ($10,100) – At the end of the day, it just came down to McIlroy and Thomas being too close in ownership to ignore the rest of the intangibles. I do like how Thomas sets up for the track, but there were options I preferred over him when push came to shove.

$9,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($9,800) – Is Scottie Scheffler’s inability to putt recently ideal? Of course not. But I am more focused on this $9,800 price tag that is baking in many of those concerns upfront. The number one player in the world has the exact makeup I am looking for in a golfer that can use his distance to hit it into wide-open areas of the rough and then find success out of the thicker stuff with his irons – a category where he ranks second in the field when I recalculated the information.

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – The ownership is steadily rising, which means he isn’t as great of a play Wednesday afternoon as he was on Monday morning, but he is one of the safer golfers for cash because of the no-cut nature and recent form, and he is also in GPP consideration since he would need to be pushing around 18% to be classified as a ‘negative value’ in my model. I am not going massively overweight, but he will be in my pool.

Viktor Hovland ($9,200) – I am looking for golfers that have a potential recipe that can enter the mix if certain facets of their games get hot, and Viktor Hovland brings both the total driving and iron proximity to the table if we see this track play into the 20-under par range.

Sungjae Im ($9,100) – It is worth noting that Sungjae Im is a favorite over Collin Morikawa at a few sharper books in the space, and while my model doesn’t necessarily see a massive difference between the two parties, it does view him as a golfer that is trending in the right direction from both a ball-striking and a results perspective.

Other Thoughts: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,500) did make my official player pool. The ownership is low enough to take a shot, and even if my model struggles to find his upside during most weeks, the floor is there on a player I am clearly too low on from a statistical perspective. I still can’t figure out how Fitzpatrick produces weekly, but he does always seem to find success.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Young ($8,900) – I thought this situation was extremely similar to what we saw with Will Zalatoris last week. Sure, I don’t love that the public is all over a golfer with actual red flags if we want to get nitpicky, but I will trust my model, which places Young first overall.

Shane Lowry ($8,700) – The recent form is trending in the wrong direction, but I cannot ignore the first-place total in weighted tee-to-green. Similar to what I am doing with Jordan Spieth, I am taking a shot on Lowry’s potential.

Corey Conners ($8,300) – I can’t say the overhaul of Corey Conners plays from me haven’t been working, but I also can’t declare anyone has been overly impressed by his 28th, 21st and 28th place finishes, respectively. I believe Conners busts through at some point with a top-10 showing because the stats look too strong across the board, and the venue does seem strong for him, especially since he has been such a robust Bentgrass performer in the past.

Other Thoughts: Jordan Spieth ($8,800) – Stixpicks has talked me into playing Jordan Spieth.

$7,000 Range

Russell Henley ($7,800) – It has been settled. Russell Henley might be the worst putter on tour. I don’t know when and how that happened because there was a time that I once trusted him with a flat stick in his hand, but since everyone knows that about him at this point, it is providing us an opening to roster the American at sub-10 percent. I do like how Henley tends to spike when he gains strokes with the putter, so let’s hope for the best there and trust the ball-striking metrics that help rank him fifth in weighted tee-to-green expectation.

Davis Riley ($7,500) – Riley ranks 14th in this field for birdie or better percentage, and he also propels to seventh overall in weighted total driving – thanks to his combination of distance and accuracy off the tee.

Keith Mitchell ($7,400) – My numbers were neutral on Mitchell, but when I added in some of the totals from the sharper books into my mix, it did propel him into a playable option in all markets.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,400) – Taylor Pendrith -110 over J.T. Poston was one of my bigger head-to-head plays of the week in the betting market.

Keegan Bradley ($7,200) – The long-term metrics outweigh this recent downswing that we have seen from Bradley.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Harold Varner III $6,900, Emiliano Grillo $6,600, Wyndham Clark $6,500, Sebastian Munoz $6,500, Alex Smalley $6,100, Luke List $6,000

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: FedEx St. Jude Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my two podcasts over at Win Daily: Bettor Golf & PGA DraftCast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – We will see where lineups end up going with how I want to allocate ownership in certain spots, but Rory McIlroy is one of three golfers up top that I want to find a way to back this week on DraftKings. The Irishman enters the contest having produced five straight top-19 finishes since the Memorial a few months back, and while I do have some concerns with how the putting splits will transfer over to Bermuda since it has historically been his worst surface, we have seen players win this title in the past by excelling with their ball-striking and losing strokes on the greens.

Scottie Scheffler ($10,800) – I think Scheffler wins this event because of his ball-striking and ability to scramble from out of the rough. That is a combination that is going to suit TPC Southwind perfectly.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) – It will be hard to play more than three options up top for me with how aggressively I want to get to Scottie Scheffler, but it was a tough decision between Cantlay and Xander. I decided to roll with Cantlay because I do believe it will create slightly more leverage than the current ownership is inferring, but there wasn’t much of an edge either way.

Other Thoughts – I am completely out on Justin Thomas and Cameron Smith.

$9,000 Range

Will Zalatoris ($9,500) – Zalatoris and Scheffler will be the two golfers that will push 40%+ for me in my builds.

Jordan Spieth ($9,100) – Spieth’s increase on Bermuda is notable with the flat stick, gaining the second-most of anyone in this field in his expected output.

Viktor Hovland ($9,000) – I wasn’t planning on backing Viktor Hovland this week, but if I believe there is general ease in getting up and down from off the green, Hovland is one of the top candidates to receive a boost in production. The volatility is there for him to miss the cut, but I don’t see much difference between him and Morikawa from an upside perspective.

Other Thoughts: As always seems to be the case with Fitzpatrick, he never quite makes my player pool when push comes to shove, and I decided to go overly aggressive on Zalatoris, which meant Finau was left on the side. It is hard to find much about Tony to dislike if we remove his ownrship.

$8,000 Range

Collin Morikawa ($8,700) -Morikawa ranks first in my model for good drive percentage on difficult-to-hit fairways, and he is also sixth in weighted proximity.

Sungjae Im ($8,500) – The long-term metrics show a correctly priced golfer, but the more recent stuff is pushing Sungjae Im into this zone that places him as a top-five fit for TPC Southwind. As everyone knows by now, I prefer the long-term metrics, but the Bermuda upgrade that Sungjae will receive + the numbers firing on all cylinders does have me drinking the Kool-Aid that there is a chance he walks out of Memphis with his blue suede shoes.

Shane Lowry ($8,300) – The offshore market doesn’t seem to care much for Shane Lowry, but it is hard to ignore his top-10 totals for weighted proximity, ball-striking, weighted par-four scoring and weighted tee-to-green.

Other Thoughts: I can’t take the chalk in every situation, so I will find myself lower on Joohyung Kim and Sam Burns than consensus.

$7,000 Range

Corey Conners ($7,600) – Conners is a perfect stylistic fit for TPC Southwind, as he ranks inside the top-10 in this field for good drive % on difficult-to-hit fairways, GIR percentage, ball striking and strokes gained off the tee.

Adam Scott ($7,500) – A GPP leverage target, Scott grades as one of the better pivots, even if he is correctly priced.

Keegan Bradley ($7,500) – If you only look at Keegan Bradley from a statistical sense, he is one of the better values in the field. Sure, the form and course history does matter, but he is worth a flier in GPP contests.

Harold Varner III ($7,400) – Nobody burns me as frequently as Harold Varner III. I’d be cautious in my exposure.

Adam Hadwin ($7,300) – I don’t know what the upside is for the week, but I do like the leverage.

Brian Harman ($7,200) – A 71st-place showing has made everyone jump off of Brian Harman, who is just a week removed from being the sharpest play on the board at the Wyndham.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Rickie Fowler $6,400, Mark Hubbard $6,900, Lucas Glover $6,300, Matthew NeSmith $6,500, Stewart Cink $6,600, Lee Hodges $6,400, Russell Knox $6,500, C.T. Pan $6,400 – I tried to list as many options as I could to go with a Scheffler/Zalatoris stack. Some of the routes are safer than others.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Wyndham Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

We had Kenny Kim on this week’s PGA DraftCast + a short episode of Bettor Golf where Nick and I ran through the entire board for DFS and betting.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Sungjae Im ($10,500) – Sungjae’s form has quietly come back around, as we have seen him average 3.58 shots with his irons and 3.85 with his driver over his last four tournaments with stats present. A significant result might be around the corner, and the presence of Bermuda greens has been the surface where he has found his best success in the past.

Other Considerations – You can make a strong argument for anyone in this range, but with Sungjae pushing 20% as of Wednesday afternoon, I likely will stick my flag in the sand for him and find myself aggressively overweight on the golfer that I think is most likely to win this event.

$9,000 Range

Russell Henley ($9,800) – It is hard to go against my model’s number one golfer for upside. I don’t love the ownership, but the potential is there for him to win this event, which is noteworthy enough to keep him in the pool, especially in single-entry type builds that feature reduced-sized fields.

Corey Conners ($9,600) – The top-ranked golfer in my model for scoring at easy courses, Conners’ ball-striking is perfectly equipped for a test such as Sedgefield.

Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400) – Hatton is a favorite in all his head-to-head matchups at the credible offshore books. I don’t love the price tag, but you are able to create some leverage if you are willing to play him at 15%+ in your MME contests. I would avoid him in other game types.

Other Considerations: Adam Scott ($9,200) and Harold Varner III ($9,000). If you can’t tell already, the entire 9k+ range is worth consideration, but I am picking and choosing my spots with the highlighted players since 1. we can’t play everyone and 2. chalk is condensing in all the same zones.

$8,000 Range

Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,400) – Bezuidenhout ranks seventh in this field in proximity between 150-175 yards, and while you can say that is a wonky statistic that doesn’t tell the entire picture, the total driving and putting should be viewed as reminiscent of past winners at the track.

Brian Harman ($8,300) – One of the sharper movers at the offshore books, Harman is the only golfer in this field that ranks inside the top 20 in my model for weighted par-four scoring, overall weighted scoring, weighted total driving and fast Bermuda + three-putt percentage.

Aaron Wise ($8,100) – Nick said it best on Bettor Golf, “Wise is playing the best golf of his career and is priced next to players beneath him in stature.” In fairness, I paraphrased the hell out of that quote, so much so that it probably shouldn’t have been in quotations, but the overall outline of that sentiment rings true.

Other Thoughts: My model loves Joohyung Kim ($8,600), and he is my preferred of the two Kim’s next to each other, but I will find myself neutral because of the hefty ownership.

$7,000 Range

Mark Hubbard ($7,900) – Hubbard’s most significant deterrent during most events is his lack of distance, but the ability to club down at Sedgefield should give him a boost so he can take advantage of his seventh-place mark in weighted proximity – a total that is 31 spots better than his expected production at a random course.

Jason Day ($7,800) – Yes, I am the king of maintaining the bit weekly for Webb Simpson and Jason Day, but the weighted proximity is improved for Day to mimic Sedgefield – not to mention the shortened layout and Donald Ross design should fit right into his wheelhouse.

Kevin Streelman ($7,600) – Streelman cracks the top-10 of my model when running it for purely upside, which is enough for me to warrant him in GPP contests.

Adam Svensson ($7,500) – As much as I want to fade the chalk, my model likes him too much to ignore.

Alex Smalley ($7,500) – Smalley jumps from 70th to 18th when moving my metrics from ‘driving accuracy’ into ‘good drive percentage.’ That means he has found success in the past when clubbing down, and even if the ownership is trickling up, I like the potential he brings to the table.

Brendon Todd ($7,500) – I worry a little about the irons here for Todd, as he has lost in his past three starts, but this is one of those catch-22 spots where the approach metrics are almost always bad, and the production only gets worse at venues where he can’t take advantage of his accuracy. Thankfully, the second part of that situation will be negated at Sedgefield, with Todd grading third in my model for weighted total driving

C.T. Pan ($7,400) – Pan’s short game went in reverse during his outing in Detroit. Let’s not overreact to one missed cut.

Harris English ($7,300) – Reduced ownership on a golfer that has produced three top-39 finishes at this course over his past three attempts. I know the current form is worrisome, but English is a GPP-only target that does have upside.

Russell Knox ($7,200) – I am not sure I have ever gotten Russell Knox correct, but first in GIR percentage and fifth in overall ball-striking should suit him well at this week’s course.

Andrew Putnam ($7,000) – Putnam’s off-the-tee metrics are 59 spots better over his last 24 rounds compared to his two-year running data, and he ranks fourth in this field for weighted par-four scoring.

Michael Thompson ($7,000) – Three top-26 finishes in a row for Thompson, who has the game to find success at a driving accuracy contest.

Additional Thoughts: You can view my model for additional thoughts!

$6,000 Range

Justin Lower $6,700, Zach Johnson $6,600

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to Bettor Golf and PGA DraftCast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) – Cantlay ranks first in the field for par-five birdie or better percentage and is also the top golfer for overall birdie or better. With over 40 players an event reaching double-digit totals, expect the American to use that strength to his advantage, and he also grades as the fourth-rated putter in this field to mimic the track.

Will Zalatoris ($10,400) – Is a birdie fest the best venue for Will Zalatoris? Maybe not. But the American does grade as the top player in the field for expected opportunities created, which means if the putter can be marginally above his baseline expectation, there is a chance he runs away with the title. I am willing to bet on that upside at a reduced ownership percentage.

Other Considerations – I have no issues going back to Tony Finau at ($10,600), although I am out on Cameron Young.

$9,000 Range

Max Homa ($9,900) – Homa’s ability to create opportunities and make the putts places him third in this field – not to mention the par-five scoring is also inside the top-15.

Cameron Davis ($9,700) – I don’t care for the ownership, but I love the statistical profile. Davis has a legit chance to compete on the first page of the leaderboard again.

Other Targets: Adam Scott ($9,300)

$8,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($8,400) – I am always interested in golfers at sub-10 percent ownership who possess top-10 equity in the $8,000 range.

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Just consider me a broken record at this point. Simpson’s statistical makeup is too good to continue this poor run. The breakout will happen before long.

Other Thoughts: Russell Henley ($8,200) – GPP-Only. Mark Hubbard ($8,000).

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,900) – Kim is always intriguing when he is trending around five percent because of his upside. You would be taking a shot on some of the unknown, but we have gotten extremely positive returns in the past when doing that with him.

Chris Kirk ($7,800) – The offshore market loves Chris Kirk.

Joohyung Kim ($7,600) – The price remains similar from last week’s 3M Open, but the ownership will be cut in half.

C.T. Pan ($7,300) – The ball-striking has started to pick up for Pan, who has gained with his irons in 10 of his last 12 and off the tee in seven of nine.

Rickie Fowler ($7,300) – Fowler graded as a positive value in all iterations of my model.

Michael Gligic ($7,000) – There are some concerns with how the long-term metrics compare to the recent form for Gligic, which always means the ground underneath him could sink at any moment, but his top-40 statistical rank over a two-year sample size is good enough for me to trust that the floor is higher than you might expect.

Austin Smotherman ($7,000) – Smotherman improves 26 spots in expected putting on this particular green complex – something that could help since he is one of the best ball-strikers in the field.

Additional Thoughts: Chris Gotterup ($7,400) – I have no issues with the ownership. You will have to make a decision on how aggressive you want to get. Stewart Cink ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Lucas Glover $6,900, John Huh $6,800, Kelly Kraft $6,700, Matt Wallace $6,700, Justin Lower $6,600, Andrew Novak $6,400, Aaron Baddeley $6,200, Seung-Yul Noh $6,000

*** Noh is my favorite dart throw on the board

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

There is no Bettor Golf Podcast this week, but here is the link to the PGA DraftCast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Sungjae Im ($10,000) – You can’t go wrong with anyone in this range, but Sungjae Im would be my preferred choice since I think we ultimately receive the lowest ownership on him. Sometimes it is just a numbers game when there are only seven players priced above $9,000, but there is a reason all three golfers in this section rank inside the top three of my model for upside.

Other Considerations – Tony Finau $10,500, Hideki Matsuyama $10,300

$9,000 Range

Maverick McNealy ($9,300) – Bentgrass courses that allow birdie-making opportunities has always been where McNealy has thrived, and the pieces feel like they might finally be coming together for him to spring his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Other Targets: I am okay with the idea of finding myself underweight to everyone else. A start of McNealy as your first man in or one of the big-three + McNealy is my ideal roster construction at the 3M.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($8,800) – Cameron Tringale feels like one of the better pivots on the board because of his reduction in ownership compared to the rest of the range.

Martin Laird ($8,200) – My intrigue around Laird is coming because of his inflated price tag that has reduced his ownership percentage.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Davis ($8,900) – I don’t love the ownership, but there are ways to be aggressive playing him.

$7,000 Range

Ryan Palmer($7,900) – Palmer ranks sixth in my model at TPC courses and is also second on short par-fours – a range he will get five times at some of the more accessible locations at the track.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,600) – The stats always look better than the finishes, but it is a venue like TPC Twin Cities that could allow Grillo to shine.

Austin Smotherman ($7,400) – Smotherman is the number one ball-striker in my model when I recalculated the metrics to mimic the course.

Troy Merritt ($7,400) – The hometown narrative is starting to catch some steam, which I could do without, but the upside metrics are percolating through the page.

Joohyung Kim ($7,300) – Kim is 28/1 to win the event. That has to count for something when every other golfer priced next to him is between 80-100/1.

Danny Lee ($7,200) – Lee is always a bad shot away from potentially withdrawing, but sub-five percent is low enough to bet on the upside.

Tyler Duncan ($7,100) – Duncan grades inside the top-10 of this field in weighted ball-striking and weighted par-four scoring.

Tom Hoge ($7,100) – The classic case of recent form versus long-term metrics. I don’t love the current ownership projection, but Hoge’s upside is probably higher than anyone else in this section if the pieces do come together.

Callum Tarren ($7,000) – Tarren is top-25 in this field for birdie or better and opportunities gained, and the recent putting surge puts him in a position where he only needs a few pieces to come together to land a top-end result.

Nate Lashley ($7,000) – Lashley ranks first in my model for par-four scoring in this field.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,000) – There is little to no floor for Bramlett, but the potential is there for a golfer that will struggle to exceed two or three percent in popularity

Additional Thoughts: You can use my model to find any plays you might like. This section is massive.

$6,000 Range

Justin Lower $6,900, Satoshi Kodaira $6,700, Kevin Chappell $6,600, Jim Knous $6,500, Seung Yul Noh $6,300

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Open Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – Rory McIlroy has averaged 8.26 shots with his ball-striking over his past five tournaments and enters the week as the second-ranked golfer in my model for weighted current form over the last 10 weeks. As you might expect, Xander Schauffele tops that list.

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) – We have multiple routes we can go when trying to get contrarian, but I will pinpoint in on Scottie Scheffler as my preferred target when trying to get unique up top. We are seeing Jon Rahm grade as the top non-Rory golfer on the board at most offshore shops, but I will trust my numbers with both being extremely close. It is worth noting that Spieth is a massive dog to most competitors.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – If pricing had come out after the Scottish Open, I don’t think it is outlandish to say Schauffele could have been the second man on the salary scale.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) – The perception of bad form in majors tends to hurt Patrick Cantlay in these spots when it comes to his price and ownership. Thankfully for us, those are beneficial things we can take advantage of from a DFS perspective, and there aren’t too many better values you will find on the board at his projected 10% going rate.

Dustin Johnson ($9,200) – The high-end metrics from Dustin Johnson are phenomenal, as we see him rank first in weighted tee-to-green, fourth in par-four scoring, second in total driving and fourth in weighted proximity

Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,500) is in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Offshore markets love Tommy Fleetwood, and he is one only four players in the $8,000 range to grade as a positive value for me compared to his price. My next mention would be the other top-end choice, but the reduction we get in ownership from Fleetwood to Finau probably makes him a better DFS target when directly comparing. For what it is worth, Fleetwood is a marginal favorite over Dustin Johnson in head-to-head matchups.

Tony Finau ($8,400) – Finau will likely be one of the two or three highest owned players, but the price is right, and the safety should be there after he has provided five top-27 finishes at the Open during his last five attempts.

Other Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($8,300) – Nothing but a GPP contrarian dart throw.

$7,000 Range

Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott’s ability to putt from off the surface should generate a massive boost in potential. Offshore markets are not in love with him when looking directly at head-to-head battles, but the outright totals have been ticking in the sharp direction.

Webb Simpson ($7,600) – I maintain my belief that the results for Webb Simpson. The American ranks 10th in this field when it comes to three-putt avoidance on these slow, systematic tests, and we also get top-five outputs in windy conditions and my reweighed par-four scoring.

Tiger Woods ($7,500) – The days where Tiger Woods can win at a standard Par 72 probably are long behind us, but these quirky tests that enhance par-four scoring and reduce par-five performances can still be conducive for him to find success.

Paul Casey ($7,500) – Enjoy the best minute splice of PGA DraftCast history.

Russell Henley ($7,200) – If Augusta is a comp course to St. Andrews, Henley should be right at home. The weighted proximity places him inside the top-10 of this field, and the driving accuracy should create extra rollout.

Thomas Pieters ($7,200) – Distance + short iron play was not a category that I merged together, but Pieters graded 12th in this field from those two factors.

Additional Thoughts: Marc Leishman ($7,700), Abraham Ancer ($7,600), Sergio Garcia ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($6,900), Kevin Kisner ($6,900), Stewart Cink ($6,800), Guido Migliozzi ($6,800), Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Wyndham Clark ($6,600), Phil Mickelson ($6,600), Zach Johnson ($6,500), Keita Nakajima ($6,200)

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Open Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 3 years ago

written by Sia

The final major of the season is upon us and it will be at a course steeped in tradition at St. Andrews. The Open hasn’t been played here since 2015 so there isn’t much by way of recent course history, but we will have plenty to offer all week from the team to make sure you’re zeroed in on the right players. That includes our PGA Draftcast Tuesday night for opinions on all the golfers and @TeeOffSports famous course breakdown. As for me, I’ll be zeroed in on APP and PUTT with a particular emphasis on lag putting and wedge game. Be sure to be in our Discord leading up to the event for chats with all the experts and for all weather information. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks:

Jordan Spieth (10000) – Really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the RBC Heritage in March. Has great Open Championship experience and is coming off a T10 finish last week at the Scottish, but was in position to win on Sunday. Has the skill set and intelligence to navigate this course to a win.

Cameron Smith (9500) – Not a guy who typically sits atop models, but always manages to get the ball in the hole better than most. He put together a nice weekend at The Scottish to finish T10 although a lot of that was PUTT reliant. His periodic wayward OTT game shouldn’t penalize him too much, and even if it does, he makes up for it with APP and short game (which includes elite wedge game and lag putting along with Jordan Spieth).

Patrick Cantlay (9400) – Was hard to determine if the Sunday meltdown at The Travelers would seep into the next few tournaments, but it looks like its a distant memory for the robotic Patrick Cantlay. He finished 4th at the Scottish Open and gained across all metrics, with a particularly splendid APP and short game play (along with being a great lag putter). That’s the mix I want to see this week at The Open Championship.

Shane Lowry (9300) – The APP play and PUTT haven’t been quite as elite as we’re accustomed to with Lowry, but this feels like a good setup for him to bounce back across those metrics that he’s typically elite in. I like him potentially getting overlooked for once.

Louis Oosthuizen (8800) – Nothing to show for on the PGA Tour this year, but the form appears to be right as he has finished inside the Top 10 in his two LIV Tour events and in the BMW International Open. Certainly has the game to succeed here just like he did in 2015 and 2010.

Tony Finau (8400) – For some reason it always feels risky to trot out Finau, but the metrics tell a different story. He has been elite on APP and ARG and the PUTT seems to have turned a corner from a bad stretch earlier in the year. OTT isn’t bad either and all of this spells pretty great value for Tony. Likely a chalky option at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8000) – Short game can be a pretty big problem for Niemann, but I’m willing to take a chance on him because I think the upside is elite. Outside of a terrible tournament at The Travelers, he’s been managing solid finishing positions all season.

Max Homa (7900) – Max gets it done across every metric and made a charge toward the lead Sunday afternoon at the Scottish. A great price but likely one of the chalkier plays on the slate as the price tag is at least 600 short.

Seamus Power (7400) – He’s been excellent with the BS over his last four tournaments and has shown the ability to pop with the short game. Very good value at this price.

Patrick Reed (7300) – He’s made 8 of 9 PGA Tour cuts dating back to The Players. The finishing positions haven’t been great and the metrics don’t tell a great story either, but I think Reed’s got the game to compete at The Open.

Talor Gooch (7300) – Two Top 10s in his two LIV events juxtaposed with an MC at The U.S. Open. But Gooch has been pretty good all year, and that includes a 20th at The PGA Championship and a 14th at The Masters. Decent contrarian play here.

Ryan Fox (7100) – Last week’s 8500 becomes this week’s 7100 and it now feels like you’re getting Fox at a bargain price. He fought hard to make the cut last week and continues to make cuts. Plenty of upside here at this price.

Sahith Theegala (7100) – He’s really starting to put the entire game together as the BS and the short game have been really good in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. This is an up and coming star that doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the moment. I also like Woodland, Tringale and Wise in this range.

Chris Kirk (6800) – Kirk should be in the 7k range given his recent form. He’s been solid on APP and he can certainly get hot with the short game. He also happens to rate out very well with the wedges and lag putting.

Joohyung Kim (6500) – He’s a got a win and six Top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour and it appears that prowess has translated nicely onto the PGA Tour with a Top 20 at The Byron Nelson, 23rd at The U.S. Open and 3rd at The Scottish Open.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 55-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Scottish Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,000) – Rahm leads the field when it comes to GIR percentage, total driving and strokes gained in the wind and is one of only two players in the 10k range to grade as a positive value against ownership (Scheffler is the other).

Other Considerations – Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I don’t think you can go wrong with Scheffler, Rahm or Thomas, although Thomas does have the most volatility and highest ownership from the trio. For that reason, Rahm and Scheffler are my preferred targets.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – Decisions will have to be made in GPP contests, but Xander Schauffele might be the safest player on the board.

Will Zalatoris ($9,300) – Rumors are that the course is going to play more challenging than usual, which is perfect for a golfer like Will Zalatoris

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) – Matsuyama ranks top-five in ball-striking and is also the best leverage option I have of any golfer $9,000 or higher.

Other Targets: Sam Burns ($9,200), Cam Smith ($9,100) are both in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($8,700) – The ownership is not matching Sungjae Im’s potential. I’ll take the leverage that is presenting itself.

Other Thoughts: I will have Joaquin Niemann ($8,600) and Corey Conners ($8,300) in the player pool, but I am out on most other targets in this territory when talking about GPP builds.

$7,000 Range

Justin Rose ($7,900) – I’ve lessened some on my appeal for Justin Rose as the week has gone on, but the upside is there, and the ownership looks great.

Brian Harman ($7,700) – Harman is one of the better values on the board and should provide safety for the price.

Marc Leishman ($7,600) – GPP-only. Super volatile. I wouldn’t play him for more than six or seven percent if mass-entering builds.

Chris Kirk ($7,400) – Kirk has gained with his driver in 15 consecutive starts

Gary Woodland ($7,300) – Woodland is quickly becoming one of my favorite targets on the board.

Jason Kokrak ($7,300) – Like Marc Leishman, consider this a volatile pick that does have top-10 equity. If choosing between the two, I prefer Kokrak.

Luke List ($7,200) – List gained over 13 shots ball-striking during his past start. The slower greens might help his usually poor putting stroke.

Additional Thoughts: Keith Mitchell ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500), Aaron Rai ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,400), Cameron Tringale ($7,200), Harris English ($7,100), Si Woo Kim ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Matt Wallace ($6,700), Alex Smalley ($6,600), Wyndham Clark ($6,500), Garrick Higgo ($6,500), Guido Migliozzi ($6,300)

3 years ago 0 comments

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