PGA DFS Picks

The final major of the season is upon us and it will be at a course steeped in tradition at St. Andrews. The Open hasn’t been played here since 2015 so there isn’t much by way of recent course history, but we will have plenty to offer all week from the team to make sure you’re zeroed in on the right players. That includes our PGA Draftcast Tuesday night for opinions on all the golfers and @TeeOffSports famous course breakdown. As for me, I’ll be zeroed in on APP and PUTT with a particular emphasis on lag putting and wedge game. Be sure to be in our Discord leading up to the event for chats with all the experts and for all weather information. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks:

Jordan Spieth (10000) – Really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the RBC Heritage in March. Has great Open Championship experience and is coming off a T10 finish last week at the Scottish, but was in position to win on Sunday. Has the skill set and intelligence to navigate this course to a win.

Cameron Smith (9500) – Not a guy who typically sits atop models, but always manages to get the ball in the hole better than most. He put together a nice weekend at The Scottish to finish T10 although a lot of that was PUTT reliant. His periodic wayward OTT game shouldn’t penalize him too much, and even if it does, he makes up for it with APP and short game (which includes elite wedge game and lag putting along with Jordan Spieth).

Patrick Cantlay (9400) – Was hard to determine if the Sunday meltdown at The Travelers would seep into the next few tournaments, but it looks like its a distant memory for the robotic Patrick Cantlay. He finished 4th at the Scottish Open and gained across all metrics, with a particularly splendid APP and short game play (along with being a great lag putter). That’s the mix I want to see this week at The Open Championship.

Shane Lowry (9300) – The APP play and PUTT haven’t been quite as elite as we’re accustomed to with Lowry, but this feels like a good setup for him to bounce back across those metrics that he’s typically elite in. I like him potentially getting overlooked for once.

Louis Oosthuizen (8800) – Nothing to show for on the PGA Tour this year, but the form appears to be right as he has finished inside the Top 10 in his two LIV Tour events and in the BMW International Open. Certainly has the game to succeed here just like he did in 2015 and 2010.

Tony Finau (8400) – For some reason it always feels risky to trot out Finau, but the metrics tell a different story. He has been elite on APP and ARG and the PUTT seems to have turned a corner from a bad stretch earlier in the year. OTT isn’t bad either and all of this spells pretty great value for Tony. Likely a chalky option at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8000) – Short game can be a pretty big problem for Niemann, but I’m willing to take a chance on him because I think the upside is elite. Outside of a terrible tournament at The Travelers, he’s been managing solid finishing positions all season.

Max Homa (7900) – Max gets it done across every metric and made a charge toward the lead Sunday afternoon at the Scottish. A great price but likely one of the chalkier plays on the slate as the price tag is at least 600 short.

Seamus Power (7400) – He’s been excellent with the BS over his last four tournaments and has shown the ability to pop with the short game. Very good value at this price.

Patrick Reed (7300) – He’s made 8 of 9 PGA Tour cuts dating back to The Players. The finishing positions haven’t been great and the metrics don’t tell a great story either, but I think Reed’s got the game to compete at The Open.

Talor Gooch (7300) – Two Top 10s in his two LIV events juxtaposed with an MC at The U.S. Open. But Gooch has been pretty good all year, and that includes a 20th at The PGA Championship and a 14th at The Masters. Decent contrarian play here.

Ryan Fox (7100) – Last week’s 8500 becomes this week’s 7100 and it now feels like you’re getting Fox at a bargain price. He fought hard to make the cut last week and continues to make cuts. Plenty of upside here at this price.

Sahith Theegala (7100) – He’s really starting to put the entire game together as the BS and the short game have been really good in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. This is an up and coming star that doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the moment. I also like Woodland, Tringale and Wise in this range.

Chris Kirk (6800) – Kirk should be in the 7k range given his recent form. He’s been solid on APP and he can certainly get hot with the short game. He also happens to rate out very well with the wedges and lag putting.

Joohyung Kim (6500) – He’s a got a win and six Top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour and it appears that prowess has translated nicely onto the PGA Tour with a Top 20 at The Byron Nelson, 23rd at The U.S. Open and 3rd at The Scottish Open.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 55-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.

We’re already in the midst of another major as a full field descends upon Brookline Massachusetts for the U.S. Open. This major has an additional, if not ominous twist, as many LIV Tour players will be teeing it up among their ‘former’ PGA Tour colleagues. This will be a very tough test with a necessity to be good in all facets, but for me, I’m putting an extra emphasis on OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy) and ARG. We will get to the full model breakdown from @TeeOffSports on the PGA Draftcast on Tuesday night at 8:00, which will also feature special guest Geoff Fienberg! Make sure you tune in for all the DFS and outright plays. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Likely to be unpopular due to his perceived lack of ARG game and the fact that you can pay up or down for more attractive options. Feels like a good time for Rahm to pounce. As for ARG he’s historically been great in that department and it’s picked up over the last couple months for him. I’ll note that I don’t have an issue rostering Rory or Scottie up here. I don’t think either will be prohibitively popular.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He’s in great form, keeps it in the fairway and has been great ARG and on APP. He’s also not intimidated by US Open setups as indicated by his 7th place or better finishes over the last 5 US Opens. Xander is great in cash games but may be pivot material if the ownership gets too high.

Hideki Matsuyama (9100) – Revenge narrative in play after the odd DQ at The Memorial. Deki rates out well in almost all relevant categories and may see some lower ownership as he is Lowry and Zalatoris adjacent.

Shane Lowry (9000) – Certainly a great value but be cautious of his pedestrian US Open track record (granted, this is a different course but it’s still noteworthy). Lowry has been playing at an elite level all year and I don’t suspect that will change at The US Open, but if ownership is high I’ll pivot up to Deki or DJ or down to some of the great value in the 8k range.

Cameron Young (8800) – It’s really difficult to make a compelling argument against some of these young guns. Fact is, Young is great OTT, great ARG and good on APP. If he’s popular (and he likely will be) it’s a pretty easy pivot, but it’s worth noting him in case ownership is flat between the 9k and mid 8k range where there are a lot of popular options.

Billy Horschel (8600) – The 8k range is fruitful, but as usual, Billy probably will be on the outside looking in as far as popularity. His APP play isn’t pristine, but he’s been great ARG and he will keep in the fairway OTT. A nice pivot off some definite chalk in this area.

Daniel Berger (8400) – He was my favorite guy at The Memorial and he paid it off with a T5. He checks every box and has recently shown he can spike with the PUTT. He’s Top 20 ARG and Top 10 in fairways gained and APP. He also likely will have significantly less ownership than Matt Fitzpatrick (I think Fitz is fine for cash).

Mito Pereira (7800) – Another young gun that doesn’t seem to be phased by the moment. Over the last 36 rounds he’s 7th OTT, 10th APP, 31st ARG and 9th Fairways Gained. Nice recipe for outplaying his price tag. Another guy that will be popular so make sure you choose your chalk wisely and don’t be afraid to pivot in GPPs.

Sungjae Im (7600) – Another cash game lock who I may also pepper into some GPPs. He’s going to be very popular. He’s in good form and has the OTT, accuracy and ARG game to compete on Sunday.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – It will be interesting to see how much ownership Louis gets considering he hasn’t played much and he’s now LIV committed. If ownership is down I’m happy to pivot onto him (and perhaps off Sungjae in GPPs). He’ll keep in the fairway and the short game is elite.

Webb Simpson (7400) – Webb has been starting to hit the ball well again which is pretty good evidence he’s shaken off all his injuries and rust. His best finish this calendar year is the recent 20th at the PGA Championship and at 7400 I’d be just fine with that result.

Davis Riley (7300) – Another popular option better suited for cash games. It’s impossible to ignore what this guy has done over his last six tournaments (4th, 5th, 9th, 13th, 4th, 13th). The best part is he’s been doing it the ‘right way’ as he’s picking up plenty of strokes with the BS and the short game. I’d consider Sergio Garcia or Justin Rose in this range as a GPP pivot.

Si Woo Kim (7000) – His big issue is the PUTT but that’s not a big point of emphasis for me at Brookline. Si Woo will hit fairways and can navigate ARG. If he gets hot on APP he can be a factor at The US Open.

Brian Harman (7000) – I’m not a Harman guy, but at this price he’s worth considering. He’s excellent ARG and will keep in the fairway. I’ll take my chances with his lack of distance if I need to dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.

Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.