Tag:

Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 15

Gary Gustafson 3 years ago

written by Gary Gustafson

Welcome home Win Daily family and all NFL DFS fans! We have just a few weeks left of the NFL regular season before we get into the NFL playoffs and best of all we are just days away from the start of the NBA season!

As one of the lead NBA DFS analysts here at Win Daily, I am incredibly excited for this upcoming year with our expanded suite of tools, projections, cheat sheets, daily content and expert advice.

If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 14 Look Back

Before we dive into this week’s NFL DFS picks, we always want to take a quick look back at the winning tournament builds to understand what we can learn from them.

The Milly Maker last week, for the second week in a row used a double tight-end build and had minimal stacking/correlation – using just a Derek Carr/Nelson Algholor 1-2 Raiders punch to take home a solo ship!

Interestingly enough, this build had multiple RB/WR stacks with Derrick Henry/AJ Brown and David Montgomery/Allen Robinson which is a highly unique mini-stacking approach that would typically not have the optimal correlation but the pure upside of these plays was enough to win big!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 15 First Look:

As we do every single week, we always need to start at the top to understand where the slate-breaking stars sit in terms of price point and match-up, and this week it really begins with two key spots – 1) Derrick Henry ($9.5K) against a Lions defense ranking among the worst at stopping the run and 2) The Kansas City Chiefs passing attack led by Patrick Mahomes ($7,900), Tyreek Hill ($8.8K) and Travis Kelce ($8K).

The argument for Henry against Detroit this week is basically a cut and paste from whatever you could have said last week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up 30 DK points per game to opposing RB’s this season, which is the third worst mark in the NFL and we just watched the Titans stud RB rumble for 39 DK points on 215 yards and 2 TD’s.

There are only two teams in the NFL that are giving up more DK points per game to opposing RB’s than the Jacksonville Jaguars – Henry’s opponent in Week 15, the Detroit Lions, and his opponent from Week 6, the Houston Texans. In that Week 6 game, Henry rumbled for 212 yards and 2 TD’s on his way to 43.4 DK points.

So to recap – Henry has faced a bottom three rushing defense already twice this year, averaging just under 215 yards per game with 2 TD’s and 42 DK PPG. This week he gets to face the last rung of that triumvirate – and it is crazy to think that his price point still allows for profit.

Listen, I know $9.5K is expensive, but a 42 DK point game as outlined above gets you 4.4X on DK, and frankly, with as much value as we have once again, I see no reason to move off the best play on the slate. Henry was the best play last week and was “just” 26% owned in the DK Milly Maker – if that holds, I am happy to let 75% of the field chase me as King Henry breaks the slate once again.

The other high-end spot that has slate winning appeal is in arguably the best game of the week as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the New Orleans Saints.

It is not often you see a DFS offense this top-heavy, but you have the highest-priced player at three positions in the Chiefs offense with Mahomes, Tyreek and Kelce as the most expensive players at their respective positions once again. Waxing poetic about this offense in a dome against the Saints in a high total game seems silly – at this point we all know this offense is an amazing DFS building block – but maybe we take for granted just how freaking good they really are.

Over the last 6 weeks, this passing trio has combined for 539.62 DraftKings points which equates to 89.62 DK points per game. At a combined salary of $24.7K, their AVERAGE game the last six weeks would still return you 3.6X at their price points in Week 15 – meaning, there is still a lot of “meat left on the bone” – shoutout to my man Will Preister for this reference.

To put this another way, if the Chiefs stud trio sets your lineup at 90 DK points and you tack on Derrick Henry’s 40 DK points on layaway – you are are at 130 points and basically staring at the cash line with just those four studs alone.

Now, the counter – the $35K you spent to get them, leaves you with just $3K+ per player for the rest of your build so it means a Stars/Scrubs approach is your only path but it is once again more than viable.

Look back at last week as an example in the Milly Maker winner – the winning build had 4 players of their 9 man roster at $4.7K or lower – with the foursome of Algholor, Gesicki, Eifert and Dallas DST giving you an average cost of just $3.6K for nearly 50% of your roster.

Guys, I say it week in and week out – this year the Stars and Scrubs approach opens up for us as the week goes on EVERY SINGLE TIME. The winning builds capitalize on it every single week and this week with high upside stars to pay for, I am going to take the proven path once again!

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Finding the value

Writing this article early in the week, means that sometimes the perceived value we have will shift with it. The reality is, the value typically shifts right up to lock – look back at last week as the Jamison Crowder news that he would be active put a damper on everyone rushing to use the Jets punt WR’s – the value is volatile and what is value on Wednesday/Thursday sometimes gets forgotten about by the time we hit lock on Sunday afternoon.

What we do have though early in the week is “paths” – where we can start to cast a wide player pool of $3K-$4K options that make any top-heavy build work. Don’t believe me? Go scroll through the DK player pool and count the number of Q tags you see – I will wait.

Already this week we are getting news that will open up value paths for us – and remember not every value has to be a true punt. With Ronald Jones having finger surgery and now being placed on the COVID-19 list, it looks highly unlikely he will suit up for Tampa Bay which means we get Leonard Fournette ($4.5K) as the lead back against Atlanta, and right off the bat, we get ourselves a back with a 15-20 touch path who is game script proof with this role in the Tampa passing offense.

SUNDAY AM UPDATE: While much of the same first look logic applies as I wrote early in the week, the truth is – the value has changed and it has changed in a drastic way.

The single biggest news of the week was in New Orleans, as we got news that Drew Brees would return and Michael Thomas would be out. I know this is the value section but let’s be honest, Alvin Kamara is about $2K too cheap with this news and there is a reason he is going to be among the most popular plays.

This news also pushes multiple New Orleans pass catchers to the top of the value chain – Emmanuel Sanders, TreQuan Smith and Jared Cook who all sit in the glorious $3K-$4K range on DK.

When you step back and look at this slate from a high level, the elite game environments simply do not exist, in fact, we have only 3 of the 11 games on the Main Slate projected for 50+ points. This Kansas City-New Orleans game stands so far above the rest in my mind when it comes to high total, close spread, and the in-game Star power – and NOW we have all the correlated value to make it work? Yes, please.

I am stacking this game up, down, sideways, diagonally and backwards.

We started the week with the simple idea of stacking Kansas City AND Derrick Henry and now with all the Saints value, you can minimize your player pool almost entirely to this game and you are capturing all the angles of the best game environment of the day.

NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up

Find me an NFL DFS week and I will find you a reason to go Stars and Scrubs. Week 15 my friends is no different.

With the Saints news it becomes so easy to lock in Mahomes and Tyreek/Hill with the cheap skill players now on New Orleans. And you can do all of this while still getting the single best player on the slate in Derrick Henry.

Listen, playing this game will not be sneaky BUT it’s also not projecting as overwhelming chalk either which is why I think you can go well over the field and gain leverage.

At QB – Mahomes is just barely cracking double-digits as ownership is largely spread out among the position with guys like Lamar, Hurts and Kyler all in similar ownership ranges.

While the skill players like Tyreek/Kelce and Sanders are among the top 25-30 most popular plays – their ownership is not materially different than other similarly high-owned players.

As an example – Kelce is sitting between 15-20% ownership on DK but the “pivot” down to Mark Andrews remains popular between 10-15%, so how much are you really gaining playing the ownership game there?

Guys like TreQuan and Jared Cook are single digit owned, so where they feel like “easy” value, it doesn’t appear the masses are as sold on them. This is a spot I assumed would be chalk, and am happy to grab all the shares if others are not interested.

I am a big believer in planting a flag and simply letting the chips fall where they may and for me on this Sunday, I will be in the dome in New Orleans at 430 PM EST as I watch the late slate hammer determine my day!

Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.

This is where the value of Discord pays off when it comes to winning in DFS – you can spend your time having discussions around roster builds/paths leading up to Sunday rather than simply listing off every player in the pool and going “THOUGHTS?”

Let’s talk about the slate in Discord – listen into our shows on Sirius XM and last but not least – Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!

Jump in Discord today guys and gals and let’s figure out the best path to profit as we build our bankroll for the NFL weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

3 years ago 0 comment

Week 4 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Patriots at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The season continues with the first of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the last two Week 4 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 4 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $14,100, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill (DK $16,500, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Rex Burkhead (DK $10,500, FD $10,500)

Pricing is much softer this week and given the depressed pricing on the Patriots RBs and secondary receiving options (after Julian Edelman), it’s much easier to field a showdown lineup with Patrick Mahomes as captain.

I’m still very much interested in using RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and using him up top frees up even more salary to stack up Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce, or even WR Tyreek Hill.

The key to smashing this showdown will be which two Patriots offensive players you select, and there’s a few combos I have interest in. But we also need to get shares of Mecole Hardman and DeMarcus Robinson, who are both very affordable.

I also have plenty of interest in the Chiefs DST in this matchup, if for any other reason than this will not be your typical Bill Belichick-coached Patriots team, and the tight travel schedule and limited preparation could lead to more mistakes than we’ve become accustomed to. With Cam Newton (COVID-19) unavailable for Monday’s game, Brian Hoyer is the starting QB. And while his price is affordable, I don’t have a ton of interest in using him against the formidable Chiefs unit.

Both James White (who is playing but missed the last two weeks) and Julian Edelman (questionable, knee) are question marks, so the two best Patriots offensive players to target might be Rex Burkhead and N’Keal Harry. If Edelman is healthy, he’s probably worth using, and White (the definition of a boom-or-bust DFS play tonight) is a complete wild card with Sony Michel already ruled out and the Pats needing live bodies for their backfield.

Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use Patriots-heavy stacks over the Chiefs tonight. I just don’t see it working out given the events of the past few days.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Build a showdown lineup without at least three Chiefs players – it’s not the time to get cute.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Patrick Mahomes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Rex Burkhead
Chiefs DST
Brian Hoyer
Julian Edelman (questionable)
James White
Harrison Butker
N’Keal Harry
Mecole Hardman
Damiere Byrd
Sammy Watkins
DeMarcus Robinson
Darrel Williams
Ryan Izzo
Nick Folk

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 3 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Chiefs at Ravens

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $19,500, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Travis Kelce (DK $15,000, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)

Pricing is incredibly tight this week for the Monday night showdown, with both QBs over $16K on FanDuel, making it nearly impossible to fit both in without punting more than one spot. But because of Lamar Jackson’s ability to take over the game (and let’s face it – his team is the favorite to win tonight), we have to consider him for the MVP spot. It’s a lot more feasible on FD, but the move on DraftKings may be to find a low-owned CPT by picking one of the TEs (Travis Kelce is my favorite play) or a different Chiefs position player who might find a loophole in the Ravens defense to exploit. I may have one or two lineups with Patrick Mahomes as MVP, but I prefer Jackson.

The matchup for Mahomes is bad, and it’s not much better for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but at least the latter’s ability to rack up PPR points (full on DK, half on FD) makes him a worthy flex play in Ravens stacks that focus on Jackson and TE Mark Andrews.

Tyreek Hill’s speed makes him worthy of consideration, and if we’re fading Hill then we’ve got to have some shares of Mecole Hardman, who’s yet to really break out this season despite his ubiquitous big-play ability.

The strategy of starting two Ravens RBs like Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins is viable, but assuming they both score enough to warrant inclusion means we’re probably using Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game with them instead of Lamar.

Normally I’d ignore the kickers, but in a game that could see this many points, we have to consider that some of them will come via the legs of Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker.

Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play both defenses in this one.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though sub-$2K players on DraftKings (who may have some impact in possible game narratives) include Gus Edwards (Ravens blowout) and Darwin Thompson (Darrel Williams ankle issues).

Lamar Jackson
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes
Mark Andrews
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Tyreek Hill
Marquise Brown
Mark Ingram II
Justin Tucker
Harrison Butker
J.K. Dobbins
Mecole Hardman
Willie Snead IV
Ravens DST
Miles Boykin
DeMarcus Robinson
Gus Edwards
Darrel Williams
Chiefs DST
Sammy Watkins (questionable, neck)

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Texans at Chiefs

Antonio D'Arcangelis 4 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season kicks off with a Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s say I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP. At least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS: MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (DK $13,200, FD $12,000)

Lower-risk Contrarian #1: DeShaun Watson (DK $17,700, FD $15,000)

High-upside Contrarian #2: Will Fuller V (DK $12,000, FD $10,500)

High-risk Contrarian #3: Randall Cobb (DK $6,300, FD $8,500)

DK-only Punts: Chiefs DST ($5,100) and Darrel Williams ($2,700)

With the Chiefs listed as 9-10 point favorites with a 31.75 implied team total in the season opener, we’re going to see Mahomes as MVP in the vast majority of FD lineups and a healthy portion on DK. I’m calling the Chiefs rookie RB “CEH” to avoid too much typing, and I’m going to have a fair share of him at the top spot as well. He’s not a bad anchor if we want to build out with the Chiefs DST, Mahomes and a couple Texans.

The path to a low-owned lottery ticket with plenty of upside comes with a great deal of risk if we use Watson, but I’ll have at least one in five GPP lineups that uses this strategy. We’ve seen Watson have many an explosive second half with the Texans trailing by multiple scores and that’s just what could happen here if the Chiefs D does its job in the first half and relaxes with a two or three-score lead in the fourth quarter.

Fuller, when healthy (or simple active) is a dangerous man. He’s my favorite Texans player and another possible candidate. Whether Brandin Cooks sits or not, we can give Randall Cobb a huge bump, as he’s always capable of big plays out of the slot and a TD or two. Hint: DeShaun Watson loves throwing to the slot…

On DK, it might pair to have some shares of the Chiefs DST in the MVP slot if we’re looking to get three more Chiefs and one of the two Johnsons (David or Duke) with Fuller.

The largest unknown in this game is probably how the Chiefs will utilize their RBs (CEH, Darrel Williams, Darwin Thompson), so exploring some different combinations there will be key. I like Darrel Williams a lot because he’s the Chiefs’ top pass-blocking back and short-yardage guy – and he’ll see a handful of touches/targets with the possibility of 8-10 if he gets a “hot hand.” At just $2,700 (just $1,800 in a utility slot), he could be a gamebreaker if he hits his 15-20 point upside.

Week 1 NFL DFS: Utility options

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value:

Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce (questionable, knee)
Will Fuller
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Chiefs DST
David Johnson
Mecole Hardman
Duke Johnson
Darrel Williams
Harrison Butker
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Kenny Stills
Jordan Akins
Ka’imi’ Fairbairn
Brandin Cooks (questionable, quad)
Daniel Fells
Texans DST

Good luck this week and don’t hesitate to get in Discord and pepper our writers with any question you may have!

Image Courtesy of Smashdown Sports News

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation

On this Win Daily Show, we have @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation for the upcoming Fantasy Football Season.

Nick Bretwisch joins Michael Rasile to discuss the 2020 Fantasy Football Quarterback outlook. Through the lens of strength of schedule, past performances, and future projections, they breakdown the top 36 QBs that could potentially be drafted in your Fantasy Football draft.

In this show, we are discussing where we are targeting some of our favorite QBs, how late we are willing to go before drafting a QB, what 2QB league drafts might look like, and more.

Through the discuss Nick and Michael also look at what other options may be available on the board, especially in the beginning of your draft when Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are expected to be taken.

They dive deep into the QB class and talk about who some sleepers to the year can be, who is underrated, and who they are not interested in touching. Finding the right QB for your team can be hard, but with @StixPicks by your side, winning your Fantasy Football Championship will be much, much easier.

Listen to the episode below and don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review!

You can also listen to the 2020 QB Evaluation episode on these platforms below.
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

Make sure to follow Nick and Michael!
https://twitter.com/StixPicks
https://twitter.com/Michaelrasile1

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https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
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4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Championship Sunday DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for the Championship Sunday DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Championship Sunday DFS – Titans at Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: Kansas City -7.5 | Over/Under 51

The first thing about this game is the total movement from the open because the spread has stayed steady at 7.5. It started at 51 in total and is up to 53 since the lines were released. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 76 games with over/under lines between 52 and 54. In these games:

Over the line 37 times (48.7%).
Under the line 36 times (47.4%).
Pushed the line 3 times (3.9%).

Worth noting as well for the Titans they are playing their fourth-straight road game. History has not been kind to teams playing four consecutive road games and there is a reason why the regular-season schedule does not create situations where teams are forced to play four road games in a row.

Quarterbacks Championship Sunday DFS

It should come to no surprise that in games that the total exceeds 51 or more points Patrick Mahomes ($7,700/$9,500), puts on an absolute clinic. Before the divisional playoff game (when he scored 40-plus), Mahomes’ splits can be seen in the tweet below. He is clearly the best quarterback on the two-game slate, but that is why he is the most expensive. The Titans finished the regular season allowing the sixth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks to quarterbacks.

https://twitter.com/AlZeidenfeld/status/1214638346787377152

As for Ryan Tannehill ($5,500/$7,700), he has the tall task of going up versus the Chiefs defense that during the last four weeks of the season allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The best approach in deploying Tannehill on this slate would be to play him in lineups that do not feature the Titans being able to run the ball effectively and are forced to play catch-up versus the Chiefs offense. Tannehill back in Week 10 did score over 19 fantasy points when he completed just 13 passes. However, the home/road splits for Tannehill still are always concerning so on the road in an extremely tough environment I do not see myself rostering too much Tannehill considering Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,200/$7,600) is in a better spot and is cheaper on both sites.

The one thing to consider is Tannehill is he probably is the only quarterback that I would consider playing naked. Tannehill has averaged five rushing attempts per game over his last three starts. Also, the Chiefs will be without Juan Thornhill and likely pass-rusher Chris Jones which makes Tannehill much more appealing.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate the Chiefs ($3,100/$4,400) are the most expensive on DraftKings and second most expensive on FanDuel. They are worth paying up for in GPPs and could see suppressed ownership with Mahomes being heavily owned. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill could get sacked a ton – 31% of pressures on Tannehill result in sacks. That the highest rate among the league’s starters.

The Titans are dirt-cheap at $2,000 on DraftKings and honestly, for that reason, they become a viable option. Also, it only takes one turnover for their DST to be a factor and over the past two weeks, they have had a DST score. Most people avoid stacking their quarterback versus the DST they are playing, but in this case, it could make sense; play Mahomes and the Tennesse DST on DraftKings to save the salary.

Running Backs

Damien Williams ($7,000/$7,600) is the second-most expensive running back on the slate on DraftKings but is cheaper than Aaron Jones on FanDuel. W do not get the price discount this week with Williams but of all the Chiefs skill players, he has the most projectable role. Not to mention during the regular season the Titans allowed the third-most receptions to backs. He probably will not score three touchdowns again, but the Titans did allow the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs over the regular season. We have seen the Chiefs rely on Williams in the postseason in the past, so I am confident going back to him as the lead running back on the team with the highest implied team total (30.25).

As for Derrick Henry ($8,700/$9,800), well we all know the story of his production by now. I have faded Henry over the last few weeks and that was against even better run defenses in the Patriots and Ravens. The Chiefs allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to backs over the 2019 regular season. If the Titans are to win this game it will be on the shoulders or QUADs of Henry. You cannot full-on fade him in this spot, even at his price. Teams know they have to stop Henry and up to this point, nobody has been able to execute. In 2019 including the playoffs Henry vs stacked boxes ranks first in attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns.

https://twitter.com/nflnetwork/status/1217808777468092417

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

The Tennesse Titans are the worst team in the NFL this season versus 12 personnel, which according to SharpFootball Stats in that formation they are allowing 8.8 yards per attempt and a 57% success rate from passes in that formation. Kansas City ranks top five in terms of pass-rate from 12 personnel. This is consistent with the Titans’ defense being weak versus tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed. They allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and third-most receiving touchdowns during the regular season. So yes wheels are indeed up for Travis Kelce ($7,100/$7,800).

Blake Bell ($2,800/$4,000) also becomes an interesting punt play if Kelce is limited at all by his injury. Bell ran 15 routes last week and had two targets. As for the Tennessee tight ends, it’s extremely tough to trust any of them in this spot this week, but Jonnu Smith ($3,400/$5,600) could end up being a not only a value but a great leverage play if the two elite tight ends on the slate do not fire. Smith leads the NFL in yards after the catch per target per @Rotounderworld. He also leads the Titans in targets over the past two weeks.

https://twitter.com/DBro_FFB/status/1218542993130639365

As for the wide receiver position, Tyreek Hill ($7,200/$7,400) seemingly has the highest ceiling of any player on the slate. Hill sees time from the slot and Logan Ryan has been beaten badly by speed guys this season. Also, we saw the speedy Marquise Brown have a super productive day versus this secondary just one week ago. Last week I wanted to be overweight on Kelce, but I think this week is the week to be overweight on Hill. Hill is cheaper than Davante Adams ($7,900/$8,300) on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Via Arrowheadpride.com “The Titans have struggled to defend elite receiving weapons. The last time they saw one was in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints. Wide receiver Michael Thomas finished with 136 yards on 12 catches and a score. The week before, Tennessee allowed Texans’ Deandre Hopkins to rack up 119 yards on six receptions. The back half of their schedule did not feature many elite passing offenses — but they lost in the two matchups where they faced one after the Chiefs.”

As for the value receiver on the Chiefs, I am putting my stamp of approval on Mecole Hardman ($3,800/$4,900). Hardman does not see a ton of snaps, (just eight routes ran last week), but he had four targets. When he is on the field the Chiefs are looking for ways to get him the ball. The last time he played the Titans he scored a 63-yard touchdown. The NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed Hardman reached a top speed of 21.85 mph on his return last Saturday and said no NFL ball carrier has had more touches than topped 21.5 mph than Hardman. He is the target in GPPs, while in cash formats, I am fine going with Sammy Watkins ($4,600/$5,200).

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($5,200)/($6,800) will probably be a pretty popular option in GPPs, but the matchup is extremely tough. The Chiefs rank second-best versus the position during the regular season (only the Patriots were better). At his price, he is someone I am definitely looking to fade. I prefer both slot options for the Titans in receivers Tajae Sharpe ($3,100/$4,700) and Adam Humphries ($3,000/$5,000). If Humphries plays I favor him, and obviously if he misses I want to move to Sharpe. The biggest games that the Chiefs have allowed have primarily been to slot receivers.

Championship Sunday DFS – Packers @ 49ers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: San Francisco -7 | Over/Under 45

Quarterbacks, Defenses Championship Sunday DFS

In this game, the total has moved up from 45 to 46.5. The spread has bounced around anywhere between 6.5-7.5. Historically, since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 220 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6.5 to 8.5 points. In these games:

San Francisco won the game 165 times (75.0%).
Green Bay won the game 54 times (24.5%).
Green Bay did better against the spread, going 106-104-10 (50.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.3 points.

Aaron Rodgers ($6,100/$8,000) has been one of the most matchup dependent quarterbacks this season. Against a much healthier 49ers defense who has allowed the lowest yards per pass attempt this season overall (5.2) and at home (4.5), it is hard to confidently project a ceiling game from him. I think if you wanted to get contrarian at quarterback you roster Garoppolo. He is the cheapest QB on both sites and showed back in Week 12 versus the Packers he can be extremely efficient. He only completed 14 passes in that game, but still threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Assuming that this game is slightly more competitive than that first matchup, 300 yards and three touchdowns from Jimmy G is not that far out of reach. The 49ers averaged 30 passing attempts per game at home this season, and he has yet to hit that threshold over his last three contests.

I do also think that the Packers DST ($2,400/$4,000) is the safest pay-down option on both sites. They are a ton of playmakers across the Green Bay defense that include Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Kenny Clark. They all can cause stress to offenses. I am not trying to play the 49ers DST ($2,900/$4,600) especially on FanDuel where they are the most expensive. Green Bay was second in fewest giveaways per game in 2019.

Running Backs

After his big game last week the price on Tevin Coleman ($5,700/$6,500) has gone way back up. But keep in mind that his 22 carries were the highest of his career. The matchup is extremely juicy versus a terrible Packers’ run defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA during the regular season with the second-worst defensive line in the league, yielding 4.96 adjusted yards per attempt. Still, it is important to note that it was the touchdowns that elevated Coleman, while Raheem Mostert ($4,300/$5,800) still saw 12 carries.

Mostert’s price on DraftKings is very low making him a considerable cash game option. I would advise in GPPs to have some exposure to Matt Breida ($3,400/$5,000) because he has that rare big-play ability and if he makes the most of his touches hr could get the hot-hand approach from the head coach. The 49ers backfield is an ambiguous one for sure and cracking this case will surely lead to a big GPP win as we saw last week with Coleman’s performance.

There is not a lot of injury news when it comes to this slate specifically, but one thing to note is the Packers are coming in extremely healthy. The only players coming in questionable are fullback Danny Vitale and cornerback Tramon Williams. The return of Vitale could potentially be huge for running back Aaron Jones ($6,700/$7,800). The Packers this season have a 51% success rate when running from 21-personnel averaging 4.9 yards per attempt. I think if Vitale plays that could be a significant boost to the Packers rushing attack.

Also, it needs to be said that in the previous matchup where Jones was limited to just 38 yards on 13 carries, that was when DJ Jones was still playing for SF. He went on IR after Week 14. Weeks 15-17 the 49ers allowed a 58% success rate and 4.8 yards per carry from 12 personnel. With more tight ends and the potential for a fullback look for the Packers to go big to run the football to limit the 49ers’ pass rush.

Additionally, I think that leveraging the late-game swap with a guy like Jamaal Williams ($3,800/$4,800) will be extremely important. Williams scored 15 fantasy points the last time these two teams faced and he had a season-high eight targets and seven receptions in the passing game. Rodgers has made a note of how important chemistry is entering this playoff game and he does have a solid rapport with Williams. When targeting Williams Rodgers has a 129.4 passer rating with a 90% completion percentage. If the Packers are trailing in this game, as the spread would project we could see more Williams assist with pass protection and play more third-downs.

Tyler Ervin ($3,100/$4,700) is mostly a punt play but is returning kicks and punts for Green Bay so I like the GPP stack with the Packers DST. Ervin has 4.41 speed and it’s a college homecoming from the former San Jose State Spartan. The pre-snap motion could be integral to Matt LaFleur’s gameplan, and Ervin has become LaFleur’s go-to motion man over the past several weeks.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

One of the biggest weaknesses of the Green Bay defense is defending against passes in-between the numbers. According to Sharp Football Stats over the second half of the season, passes in-between the numbers had a 56% success rate. Outside the numbers drop down to 41%. On the season the 49ers throw between the numbers 64% of the time, which is the most in the NFL. Expect for the 49ers to expose this matchup with a bounce-back effort from George Kittle ($5,800)/($7,000). The last time played Green Bay he went for over 125 yards and a score. His price is way too low. Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900)/($5,500) is still leading the receiver group from the slot position so he would be the favorite 49ers receiver to target in this spot, but both Deebo Samuel ($5,500)/$6,300) and Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)/($5,400) also have seen decent work from the slot over the past two weeks.

There are definitely trust issues between the lower-end wide receivers for the Packers and the coaching staff. After Allen Lazard ($4,400/$5,100) left last week’s game you would have expected another receiver to take his place right? Nope, the Packers instead opted to use more 13 personnel with no wide receiver outside of Adams seeing more than one target. With Lazard off the injury report, all of these fringy sub-4k Green Bay receivers should be faded for the most part. Jake Kumerow ($3,200/$4,700) is dirt-cheap on DraftKings and ran the second-most routes of any receiver on the Packers.

Adams is not an absolute lock to smash coming off his best game of the season. The last time he came off a 30-point game he finished with just 11.1 fantasy points the next week. Adams had just 43 receiving yards the last time he played SF but salvaged the day with a touchdown. As I mentioned the Packers used more three-tight end sets so Jace Sternberger ($2,500)/($4,000) (season-high 36 snaps last week) possesses explosiveness and his 44% snap share was higher than Jimmy Graham and Robert Tonyan. Sternberger wears 87 so perhaps Rodgers thinks he is throwing to Jordy Nelson.

https://twitter.com/SeedsofJake/status/1216747273079656450

Image via Mike Morbeck

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Divisional Weekend DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Slate Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

adam.sardinha1@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by adam.sardinha1@gmail.com

Welcome to my preview for the Divisional Weekend DFS slate. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian plays for all four games this weekend. Are you ready for some playoff DFS action? All prices discussed are via DraftKings and FanDuel (DraftKings Price/FanDuel Price).

Divisional Weekend DFS – Minnesota at San Francisco – 4:35 PM EST Opening Line: 49ers -6 | Over/Under 45

The first thing about this game is the line movement from the open. It started at 45 in total and is up to 44 from Sunday. Via TeamRankings.com since the start of the 2014 NFL season, there have been 256 games where the closing line favored the home team by 6 to 8 points. In these games: The team like San Francisco won the game 184 times (71.9%). The team like Minnesota won the game 71 times (27.7%). The team like Minnesota did better against the spread, going 128-116-12 (52.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.5 points.

Quarterbacks

From a quick glance, these quarterbacks look like some of the least appealing on the slate. Kirk Cousins ($5,700/$7,600) will be facing off versus a vicious 49ers defensive front that is getting healthier. Cousins played well last week, but still only ended up with 13.58 fantasy points. So even if Cousins can duplicate is efforts from last week, that may not translate to fantasy success. Of the two quarterbacks, I prefer Jimmy Garroppolo ($5,600/$7,800) who is the cheaper quarterback on DraftKings but only as a target in larger-field GPPs. Minnesota is down a lot of cornerbacks and its weaknesses are in its secondary. The 49ers this season have averaged 7.9 yards per pass attempt which ranks second-best in the NFL.

Defenses

For defenses overall on this slate, the Vikings DST ($2,700/$3,700) seems like the safest pay-down option. They have scored at least eight fantasy points over six straight weeks. The 49ers DST ($3,000/$4,600) I would only play on DraftKings, as the clear-cut choice for best pay-up DST is Kansas City ($3,200/$4,200) on FanDuel.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000/$8,000) arguably is the best running back on the Divisional DFS Weekend slate especially on FanDuel where he is only the third-highest price running back. He is seeing and touching the ball too much to not have him as a core piece in your lineups. As for the 49ers backfield, Raheem Mostert ($5,800/$6,700) is the lead back, but with the other SF running backs healthy, I am sure they will cut into his production. I would prefer to use some more salary and pay up to get to Damien Williams ($6,000/$6,900) who should see more touches and is just $200 more on both sites. The Vikings defense is not good at defending running backs in the passing game, so on DraftKings, Matt Breida ($3,300/$5,000) is an interesting name to consider, because there is a chance they have been saving him for the playoffs.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

There’s no tougher matchup for George Kittle ($6,200/$7,400) than his spot this week. No team has been better other than the Green Bay Packers versus tight ends over the last four weeks of the season. We saw it last with Jared Cook as well who went just five receptions for 54 yards. That being said you need Kittle to smash in this spot, and at his price, it might just make more sense to have more exposure for Travis Kelce ($6,400)/$7,500).

For the Minnesota receivers, both have now popped up on the injury report which means I am limiting my exposure to Stefon Diggs ($5,600/$6,800). He has a brutal track record of underperforming in games where he was on the injury report leading up to that game. The 49ers are strong versus deep passes and Diggs lead the NFL in yards per reception this season. In most cases, I would rather just pay-down to get to either Deebo Samuel ($5,200/$6,100) or Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400/$5,700). Samuel is cheaper on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper on FanDuel. I like both of them in this spot versus the Minnesota secondary that is dealing with a ton of injuries. Samuel gets rushing attempts which is a plus, and Sanders is actually coming off his first bye week of the season! Remember he was traded to San Francisco after their bye week in Week 4, so he has played 17 straight weeks. He says he feels relieved and much better heading into this game after a lackluster final three-game stretch (eight receptions for 95 yards).

Adam Thielen ($6,200/$6,900) is still the receiver you want in Minnesota if he plays. Over the last four weeks, no team allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than the 49ers.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Titans @ Ravens – 8:15 PM EST Opening Line: Baltimore -10 | Over/Under 48

Quarterbacks, Defenses

The line on this game has just gone down since it opened at 48 down to 46.5. Not a sign that Vegas considers this game a shootout and it should not be considering both teams want to run the football which shortens the game. But for Lamar Jackson ($8,400)/$9,400) it does not really matter. Play him in cash games, and use him in GPPs in Divisional Weekend DFS. But with which Ravens player should you pair him with? Well, the Ravens DST ($3,600/$4,800) is also in a smash spot as the Titans have allowed 3.4 sacks per game the third-highest average in the NFL.

Running Backs

Mark Ingram has been labeled day-day and I am concerned that even after a two-week absence he is not ready to go. It has been reported that he will play but there is a strong chance that he could be limited in this game, which means Gus Edwards ($4,900/$5,400) would become a lock, especially on FanDuel. In Ingram’s absence in Week 17 behind back-up offensive lineman and RG3 at quarterback versus a great Steelers’ defense Edwards did work. He carried 21 times for 130 yards. If Ingram is active I love him in GPPs. The same goes for Justice Hill ($3,900/$4,800) on FanDuel. He is way too cheap over there.

Derrick Henry ($8,200)/($9,600) looks to be really popular in this spot coming off a massive game where absolutely dominated the New England Patriots. However, he is far from a lock for me because this game script is going to be harder to project the Titans playing with a lead. He is also very expensive on both sites, so I would not be touching him heavily on DraftKings. However, you must keep in mind that the Baltimore defense is weak through its run defense. At home this season the Ravens have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, which was worse than the Carolina Panthers. If the game script somehow goes in the Titans favor than Henry could rack up points quickly with a 25 touch workload looking very projectable. The Ravens can also be exposed versus heavier personnel packages. Versus 12-personnel Baltimore allowed a 48% success rate and 4.5 yards per attempt this season.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

I think Marquise Brown ($4,400)/$5,300) finds himself in a sweet spot on both sites. He is priced down significantly and has a massive upside that you usually cannot get from the receiver at his salary. He can help round out a GPP stack with Jackson. Also, cornerback Adoree Jackson will be returning for Tennesse but he has been dealing with a foot injury, while Brown has not been on the injury report at all this week. That despite being on it almost every week during the regular season. Mark Andrews ($5,600/$6,800) will also be good to go and the matchup is also great for him. The Titans allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends this season and allowed Ben Watson to be second on the Patriots in receptions and yards last week. Andrews is a great pivot off Kelce/Kittle.

On the side of the Titans A.J. Brown ($6,000)/($7,400) had been on absolute fire but was shut down last week. I am not looking to fade Brown this week, because the Titans should be forced to throw the ball more versus the Ravens. We also got a $1,400 discount on him on DraftKings down to 6K. On the season the Ravens allowed the third-most targets, seventh-most receptions, and sixth-most red-zone targets to receivers. The Ravens also ranked number one versus the tight end, so I am looking elsewhere for a cheap tight end than in this game.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Texans @ Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST Opening Line: New Orleans -8.0| Over/Under 49

Quarterbacks, Defenses

When we want to target games for DFS we look for games where the totals are moving up. This is the case here with Houston @ KC, where the line opened at 49 and has moved up to 51 with the Chiefs getting two more points in the process. They are now favored by ten. Patrick Mahomes ($7,500/$8,600) is a great option in cash and GPPs if you cannot afford to pay up for Jackson. Houston was the fourth-worst ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in 2019. That being said the more contrarian approach will be targeting the other QB Deshaun Watson ($6,700/$8,300). He is a nice late-swap pivot if your Mahomes lineups are not looking great after the first two games. I like the savings more on DrafKings than on FanDuel where you only shave off $300. I alluded to it earlier, but I also love the Chiefs DST ($3,200/$4,200) especially on FanDuel. Watson was sacked seven times last week and this season has been sacked an average of 3.3 times per game.

Running Back

You have to lock-in, Damien Williams. With his increased workload, and the salary he is too easy to jam into lineups. Houston on the season ranked fifth-worst versus the running back position and gave up the second-most receptions to the position.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,400/$7,500) is the clear-cut number one tight end option on the slate. The Texans over the last four weeks rank fourth-worst versus the position. Kelce has yet to see less than nine targets in five of his past six games. Darren Fells ($3,500/$5,200) should only be rostered if we see Jordan Akins miss again. Kansas City allowed the second-most targets to the tight end position over the 2019 season and ranked third in touchdowns at the position.

The Houston defense allows a ton of completions towards the middle of the field, but ranks fourth-best versus deep passes. However, Tyreek Hill ($7,600/$7,900) should see enough work in the slot versus Vernon Hargreaves who is one of the single-worst cornerbacks left in the NFL playoffs. Hill’s ceiling is too high to not have exposure and he should dominate. I do prioritize Kelce first in builds. I like Hill on FanDuel more where he is cheaper than DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400/$8,100). Not sure if I will be too heavy on Hopkins especially as Will Fuller ($5,000/$5,600) makes his probable return. I love Fuller in GPPs because the last time he played Kansas City he almost had three touchdowns but dropped them. Still, the plays were there, and I think in the playoffs he makes them this time around.

Divisional Weekend DFS – Seahawks @ Packers – 6:40 PM EST Opening Line: Green Bay -4.0| Over/Under 46

Quarterbacks, Defenses

Russell Wilson ($6,600)/($7,900) has struggled in his few games at Lambeau Field. Just three combined passing touchdowns and six interceptions in his three career games there. Overall versus Green Bay Wilson has never thrown for more than 225 yards or two passing touchdowns. So with the quarterbacks here I lean towards Aaron Rodgers ($6,500/$8,100) especially on DraftKings where is priced lower than Wilson. Rodgers is averaging over 20 DraftKings points per game at home this season. Green Bay is averaging over 260 passing yards per game at home this season (sixth-highest), with 1.8 passing touchdowns per game. I also think the Green Bay DST ($2,800/$4,400) is a very usable DST on DraftKings in the mid-range price. Seattle’s offensive line is really banged up. Packers ranked top-four in forced turnovers per game at home.

Running Back

Aaron Jones ($7,400/$8,200) is in a killer-spot here versus the Seahawks atrocious run defense. Over the last four weeks, they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and the most rushing touchdowns.

Pete Carroll also talked up getting more Marshawn Lynch ($4,800/$6,000) involved, which I think you need to get some exposure to especially because of Lynch’s workload near the goal line. Green Bay has allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game, so there is a three-touchdown game in Lynch’s outcomes that needs to be accounted for.

Wide Receivers, Tight Ends

Tyler Lockett ($6,600/$6,700) is cheaper than DK Metcalf ($6,800/$7,100) on both sites this week and I will surely be buying him at the discount. Lockett is still seeing targets; he had eight last week and not fewer than seven in the previous three.

For the value, I also love using guys like Allen Lazard ($4,500/$5,400) and Jimmy Graham ($3,300/$5,000). It’s a #revengegame for Graham and a great matchup. The Seahawks were the second-worst team versus the tight end this year only behind the Arizona Cardinals. Also, Graham is coming off his second-highest target total (seven) of the season. Speaking of targets that is also why I like Lazard. He has 17 targets in his last two games. The Seattle defense is overrated.

Image via Keith Allison

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 17 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Starting off with a bit of a wild card here. Sam Darnold has been looking improved in his last five games with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the fifth seed for the playoffs and this game means absolutely nothing but pride for them. They have already ruled Shaq Lawson out and Darnold played decent against the Bills Week One while dealing with mono. Expect a great performance at this price and pay up for other skill positions in your lineup.

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

The naysayers will say that Brady doesn’t perform well in South Florida but I would counter that with a look at this Miami Dolphins team. This is a great chance for the Patriots offense to get back in stride with a weaker opponent heading into a probable bye week. Tom Brady had one of his better statistical games against this Dolphins team with 264 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a nice performance at another relatively cheaper price than normal for the quarterback slot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over with just three interceptions this season. The Lions have surpassed the Arizona Cardinals as the worst passing defense in the NFL and have six interceptions, the lowest in the league. Aaron Rodgers should be a gunslinger in this game and be around 300 yards as well. No need to discount double-check this decision.

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

With the division title on the line in Week 17 in a primetime matchup, there are very few quarterbacks I would want outside of Russell Wilson. Coming off an all-around stinker against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks should come out on all cylinders against the 49ers. Yes, the numbers say the 49ers pass defense should limit him but the last three weeks do not look good for that defense.

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

He currently is listed as questionable with a back injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is under center on Sunday afternoon. Going up against a hungry Titans team still competing for a playoff opportunity, Watson will have the energy to compete instead of “taking the week off”. He played well in the matchup these two teams had earlier in the season and I expect very similar numbers out of him as well.

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Patrick Mahomes had a bit of a struggle at points in this season but last year’s MVP has been heating up in his last three games. He played against top-level defenses in that span and should be easier for him with the Chargers in town. With the opportunity of a potential bye still looming, expect Patrick Mahomes to showcase his abilities on Sunday.

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Jameis is on the injury report ahead of this game with a thumb and knee injury. This Atlanta team is completely different than the one Winston saw a month ago, with three consecutive victories and a team that will not be changing regimes in the offseason. Without some of his favorite targets on the field due to injury, expect a stinker from Jameis to end this season.

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Do not buy into last week’s offensive performance from Case Keenum once Dwayne Haskins was carted off. This Cowboys team is somehow still competing for the NFC East crown and need to win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. Keenum had back-to-back stinkers before being demoted to the backup and that’s more of what I expect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

The fact that he is facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England defense is the main reason why Fitzpatrick is on this list. With a New England victory, they clinch a Wild Card bye and that will motivate the defense. I don’t necessarily believe he will turn into FitzTragic here, but I’m not believing in the Miami offense either.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

Click Here to Play and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 317.5 passing yards.

You can read about each of these quarterbacks above but as a summary, Jameis Winston should struggle without his main weapons against the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand should have a 300 yard day with the Chargers looking to end their miserable 2019 season.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 15 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo, ATL vs SF

DK ($5,600) FD ($8,400)

He is coming off of one of his best games as a starting quarterback and the Falcons defense shouldn’t cause issues. Atlanta is allowing a 100.3 passer rating this season, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Garoppolo is playing with solid receivers that will create separation. With the 49ers still trying to win the NFC West, they should be ready while the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. Even with a backup center for the remainder of the season, Garoppolo should still have a solid game.

Tom Brady, NE @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

This should be the bounce-back week for the Patriots offense in general as they travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns so don’t expect the huge total from Brady. However, he doesn’t turn the ball over often and is a cheaper option on the slate. The Bengals allow 64 percent of passes to be completed so expect Brady’s accuracy to increase from where it has been the previous month. Expect a nice rebound game against a team poised to have the first pick in the NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers, CHI vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

This game is completely different than when these two teams met to open up the season. The Chicago Bears are dealing with injuries across the defense with Roquan Smith being placed on IR as well as Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan potentially missing this game. Aaron Rodgers should dominate a depleted defense and this Bears team has given up at least 275 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last three games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.3 percent of his passes this season and only threw two interceptions so far. Expect Rodgers to continue playing well and get closer to locking up the NFC North.

Week 15 Quarterback GPP Plays

Jameis Winston, TB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Winston had a great statistical game passing the ball last week against the Indianapolis Colts without Mike Evans. Evans is currently doubtful for this matchup as of this writing. Tampa ranks second in passing yards per game and the Lions allow the third-most passing yards in the league. I do not see a situation where Detroit can stop Jameis, all they can do is hope he coughs up the football multiple times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,700)

Not sure if I am pro-Baker or anti-Arizona this week. Baker should feast against this Arizona defense that is the worst at passing defense. They allow the most yards per game, touchdowns and best passer rating in the league. Baker is completing under 60 percent of his passes this season but this should be the return to last year’s version of Mayfield with a soft opposing defense. The Browns somehow have a chance to still make the playoffs and need this win, so expect Baker to come out with a lot of emotion.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ CAR

DK ($ 7,000) FD ($8,100)

Carolina is still trying to find out their identity as the season is reaching its end. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league with the second-most sacks. However, Carolina has two of their DE on the injury report. Expect Wilson to have his usual game as the running game will set him up for some big plays.

Week 15 Quarterback Fades

Mitch Trubisky, CHI @ GB

DK ($,6000) FD ($7,500)

The Packers are a different team at home than they are on the road. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions on the year and Tribusky is prone to mistakes. The Packers are trying to lock up this division and defeating the Bears could eliminate Chicago from the playoffs. Expect the Green Bay defense to lock down Tribusky and turn him back into a pumpkin.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ NE

DK ($4,900) FD ($7,000)

Bill Belichick will shut down Andy Dalton, plain and simple. Dalton has had a solid couple games since being renamed the starting quarterback but that was against the Jets and Browns. The Patriot defense struggles against speedy teams and the Bengals do not have much speed. Expect this to get ugly early and potentially see Dalton pulled late.

Josh Allen, BUF @ PIT

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Buffalo has two of their offensive tackles on the injury report, which is a little concerning. Pittsburgh’s passing defense is one of the best in football with the most sacks, fifth-least passing yards, and 18 interceptions. Allen has been good this year but the Bills offense has stuttered at times this season and against an elite defense is prone to do so again in primetime.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Jimmy Garoppolo over 270.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards.

Atlanta is allowing 258.2 passing yards per game and this is the time for Garoppolo to sling the football. Atlanta stops the run well so look for a large number of passing attempts and Jimmy G should finish with 300+ yards. San Francisco is coming off their worst pass-defending games in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. However, the Falcons do not have nearly the amount of weapons that the Saints did. The 49ers also rank first in pass defense this season so Matt Ryan should easily hit the under.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 14 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

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Week 14 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Aaron Rodgers, WAS vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,400)

Another week, another NFC East team with little-to-no chance to stop Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The Washington Redskins do not hold the ball enough and this smells like a dominant Packers performance where Aaron Rodgers shows why he is still one of the best passers in the league.

Delvin Hodges, PIT @ ARI

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,000)

Delvin Hodges has looked good in his limited action thus far this season. The Arizona Cardinals have been the worst against the pass as they have given up 307 yards and 31 touchdowns (both lead the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks are able to make big plays with 60 passes of at least 20 yards happening. Even with Juju Smith-Schuster looking like he won’t play, I can’t expect anything out of this Cardinal defense. Hodges isn’t going to dominate here, but he is a valuable option that won’t cost you.

Drew Brees, SF vs NO

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,700)

The first half of last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens has soured me a tiny bit off the 49ers. New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South and now it’s time for the Saints to try to capture a bye in the Wild Card round. San Francisco is one of the best against the passing game but it’s Drew Brees we are talking about. He’s one of the only quarterbacks I blindly follow no matter who is opposing Brees.

Week 14 Quarterback GPP Plays

Pat Mahomes, KC @ NE

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,400)

This one is the “hot take” choice because this one can burn you easily and the number one rule (Belichick eliminates your number one option). However, the one thing that the New England defense struggles with is speed and that was evident against the Ravens and Texans so far. The Chiefs are faster than either of those teams and Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship. Speed is the kryptonite this year and will take it until the Patriots show me otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, DET vs MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,200)

Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated this season with a 23:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In Week 7 when these two teams met, Cousins had one of his best games on the season. Detroit gives up the third-most passing yards per game and allowed 25 passing touchdowns through 12 games. With the weapons that Minnesota has offensively, expect a big game out of good ole’ Kirk Cousins.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,000)

The current runner-up to the MVP is definitely a solid quarterback option this week. Against the Rams in Week 5, Wilson torched them for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams don’t scare me as much as others that I am seeing. I don’t expect that type of performance but something in that ballpark wouldn’t be too eye-opening.

Week 14 Quarterback Fades

Gardner Minshew II, LAC vs JAX

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,600)

Minshew Mania is back as the Jaguars announced he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. However, it’s because of Nick Foles’ play and not because Minshew was the bright star off the bench. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the pass this season and should shut Minshew and the Jaguars passing game down this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,000)

After being viewed as the savior returning to the starting role and picking up Cincinnati’s first victory of the season, I don’t expect much from Dalton. The Bengals aren’t riding that emotional wave of Dalton’s return this week and the Browns are still in the Wild Card hunt. AJ Green will be out for this game as well. Cleveland is 6th in passing defense so don’t expect a lot from the Red Rifle.

Derek Carr, TEN vs OAK

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,000)

Derek Carr is coming off his worst game this season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders are struggling right now and have lost their identity. Carr has three consecutive games with at least one interception and I wouldn’t be shocked if he extended that streak. The Titans average just under an interception per game and should pick him off. They do not give up passing touchdowns or allow quarterbacks to get into a rhythm so don’t expect too much out of Derek Carr this week.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Jameis Winston under 310.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 286.5 passing yards.

Indianapolis allows 226.9 passing yards per game and should control the clock in this game. I see a couple of Winston turnovers costing him the opportunity to reach 311 yards or more. Matt Ryan won’t get the chance either as the Panthers have fired Ron Rivera and will probably be run-heavy with a short week with their interim coach. Chrisitan McCaffrey should dominate this game and not give Ryan a lot of time with the ball.

4 years ago 0 comment

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