Gary Gustafson 
Welcome home Win Daily family and all NFL DFS fans! We have just a few weeks left of the NFL regular season before we get into the NFL playoffs and best of all we are just days away from the start of the NBA season!
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NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 14 Look Back
Before we dive into this week’s NFL DFS picks, we always want to take a quick look back at the winning tournament builds to understand what we can learn from them.
The Milly Maker last week, for the second week in a row used a double tight-end build and had minimal stacking/correlation – using just a Derek Carr/Nelson Algholor 1-2 Raiders punch to take home a solo ship!
Interestingly enough, this build had multiple RB/WR stacks with Derrick Henry/AJ Brown and David Montgomery/Allen Robinson which is a highly unique mini-stacking approach that would typically not have the optimal correlation but the pure upside of these plays was enough to win big!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Week 15 First Look:
As we do every single week, we always need to start at the top to understand where the slate-breaking stars sit in terms of price point and match-up, and this week it really begins with two key spots – 1) Derrick Henry ($9.5K) against a Lions defense ranking among the worst at stopping the run and 2) The Kansas City Chiefs passing attack led by Patrick Mahomes ($7,900), Tyreek Hill ($8.8K) and Travis Kelce ($8K).
The argument for Henry against Detroit this week is basically a cut and paste from whatever you could have said last week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up 30 DK points per game to opposing RB’s this season, which is the third worst mark in the NFL and we just watched the Titans stud RB rumble for 39 DK points on 215 yards and 2 TD’s.
There are only two teams in the NFL that are giving up more DK points per game to opposing RB’s than the Jacksonville Jaguars – Henry’s opponent in Week 15, the Detroit Lions, and his opponent from Week 6, the Houston Texans. In that Week 6 game, Henry rumbled for 212 yards and 2 TD’s on his way to 43.4 DK points.
So to recap – Henry has faced a bottom three rushing defense already twice this year, averaging just under 215 yards per game with 2 TD’s and 42 DK PPG. This week he gets to face the last rung of that triumvirate – and it is crazy to think that his price point still allows for profit.
Listen, I know $9.5K is expensive, but a 42 DK point game as outlined above gets you 4.4X on DK, and frankly, with as much value as we have once again, I see no reason to move off the best play on the slate. Henry was the best play last week and was “just” 26% owned in the DK Milly Maker – if that holds, I am happy to let 75% of the field chase me as King Henry breaks the slate once again.
The other high-end spot that has slate winning appeal is in arguably the best game of the week as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the New Orleans Saints.
It is not often you see a DFS offense this top-heavy, but you have the highest-priced player at three positions in the Chiefs offense with Mahomes, Tyreek and Kelce as the most expensive players at their respective positions once again. Waxing poetic about this offense in a dome against the Saints in a high total game seems silly – at this point we all know this offense is an amazing DFS building block – but maybe we take for granted just how freaking good they really are.
Over the last 6 weeks, this passing trio has combined for 539.62 DraftKings points which equates to 89.62 DK points per game. At a combined salary of $24.7K, their AVERAGE game the last six weeks would still return you 3.6X at their price points in Week 15 – meaning, there is still a lot of “meat left on the bone” – shoutout to my man Will Preister for this reference.
To put this another way, if the Chiefs stud trio sets your lineup at 90 DK points and you tack on Derrick Henry’s 40 DK points on layaway – you are are at 130 points and basically staring at the cash line with just those four studs alone.
Now, the counter – the $35K you spent to get them, leaves you with just $3K+ per player for the rest of your build so it means a Stars/Scrubs approach is your only path but it is once again more than viable.
Look back at last week as an example in the Milly Maker winner – the winning build had 4 players of their 9 man roster at $4.7K or lower – with the foursome of Algholor, Gesicki, Eifert and Dallas DST giving you an average cost of just $3.6K for nearly 50% of your roster.
Guys, I say it week in and week out – this year the Stars and Scrubs approach opens up for us as the week goes on EVERY SINGLE TIME. The winning builds capitalize on it every single week and this week with high upside stars to pay for, I am going to take the proven path once again!
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Finding the value
Writing this article early in the week, means that sometimes the perceived value we have will shift with it. The reality is, the value typically shifts right up to lock – look back at last week as the Jamison Crowder news that he would be active put a damper on everyone rushing to use the Jets punt WR’s – the value is volatile and what is value on Wednesday/Thursday sometimes gets forgotten about by the time we hit lock on Sunday afternoon.
What we do have though early in the week is “paths” – where we can start to cast a wide player pool of $3K-$4K options that make any top-heavy build work. Don’t believe me? Go scroll through the DK player pool and count the number of Q tags you see – I will wait.
Already this week we are getting news that will open up value paths for us – and remember not every value has to be a true punt. With Ronald Jones having finger surgery and now being placed on the COVID-19 list, it looks highly unlikely he will suit up for Tampa Bay which means we get Leonard Fournette ($4.5K) as the lead back against Atlanta, and right off the bat, we get ourselves a back with a 15-20 touch path who is game script proof with this role in the Tampa passing offense.
SUNDAY AM UPDATE: While much of the same first look logic applies as I wrote early in the week, the truth is – the value has changed and it has changed in a drastic way.
The single biggest news of the week was in New Orleans, as we got news that Drew Brees would return and Michael Thomas would be out. I know this is the value section but let’s be honest, Alvin Kamara is about $2K too cheap with this news and there is a reason he is going to be among the most popular plays.
This news also pushes multiple New Orleans pass catchers to the top of the value chain – Emmanuel Sanders, TreQuan Smith and Jared Cook who all sit in the glorious $3K-$4K range on DK.
When you step back and look at this slate from a high level, the elite game environments simply do not exist, in fact, we have only 3 of the 11 games on the Main Slate projected for 50+ points. This Kansas City-New Orleans game stands so far above the rest in my mind when it comes to high total, close spread, and the in-game Star power – and NOW we have all the correlated value to make it work? Yes, please.
I am stacking this game up, down, sideways, diagonally and backwards.
We started the week with the simple idea of stacking Kansas City AND Derrick Henry and now with all the Saints value, you can minimize your player pool almost entirely to this game and you are capturing all the angles of the best game environment of the day.
NFL DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Find me an NFL DFS week and I will find you a reason to go Stars and Scrubs. Week 15 my friends is no different.
With the Saints news it becomes so easy to lock in Mahomes and Tyreek/Hill with the cheap skill players now on New Orleans. And you can do all of this while still getting the single best player on the slate in Derrick Henry.
Listen, playing this game will not be sneaky BUT it’s also not projecting as overwhelming chalk either which is why I think you can go well over the field and gain leverage.
At QB – Mahomes is just barely cracking double-digits as ownership is largely spread out among the position with guys like Lamar, Hurts and Kyler all in similar ownership ranges.
While the skill players like Tyreek/Kelce and Sanders are among the top 25-30 most popular plays – their ownership is not materially different than other similarly high-owned players.
As an example – Kelce is sitting between 15-20% ownership on DK but the “pivot” down to Mark Andrews remains popular between 10-15%, so how much are you really gaining playing the ownership game there?
Guys like TreQuan and Jared Cook are single digit owned, so where they feel like “easy” value, it doesn’t appear the masses are as sold on them. This is a spot I assumed would be chalk, and am happy to grab all the shares if others are not interested.
I am a big believer in planting a flag and simply letting the chips fall where they may and for me on this Sunday, I will be in the dome in New Orleans at 430 PM EST as I watch the late slate hammer determine my day!
Stay locked into the news and make sure you join our Discord – we will talk plays and roster construction leading up to lock and I promise – you won’t want to miss it. We have a free 7 day trial – no risk – just join.
This is where the value of Discord pays off when it comes to winning in DFS – you can spend your time having discussions around roster builds/paths leading up to Sunday rather than simply listing off every player in the pool and going “THOUGHTS?”
Let’s talk about the slate in Discord – listen into our shows on Sirius XM and last but not least – Make sure you are following the Win Daily crew this weekend – as we have all your NFL Content and a FREE Livestream on Sunday!
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