jason mezrahi 
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 3 NFL DFS contests!
Week 3 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Lamar Jackson (DK $19,500, FD $16,500)
Pivot: Travis Kelce (DK $15,000, FD $13,000)
Contrarian #1: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)
Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews (DK $12,000, FD $12,000)
Pricing is incredibly tight this week for the Monday night showdown, with both QBs over $16K on FanDuel, making it nearly impossible to fit both in without punting more than one spot. But because of Lamar Jackson’s ability to take over the game (and let’s face it – his team is the favorite to win tonight), we have to consider him for the MVP spot. It’s a lot more feasible on FD, but the move on DraftKings may be to find a low-owned CPT by picking one of the TEs (Travis Kelce is my favorite play) or a different Chiefs position player who might find a loophole in the Ravens defense to exploit. I may have one or two lineups with Patrick Mahomes as MVP, but I prefer Jackson.
The matchup for Mahomes is bad, and it’s not much better for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but at least the latter’s ability to rack up PPR points (full on DK, half on FD) makes him a worthy flex play in Ravens stacks that focus on Jackson and TE Mark Andrews.
Tyreek Hill’s speed makes him worthy of consideration, and if we’re fading Hill then we’ve got to have some shares of Mecole Hardman, who’s yet to really break out this season despite his ubiquitous big-play ability.
The strategy of starting two Ravens RBs like Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins is viable, but assuming they both score enough to warrant inclusion means we’re probably using Mahomes and the Chiefs passing game with them instead of Lamar.
Normally I’d ignore the kickers, but in a game that could see this many points, we have to consider that some of them will come via the legs of Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker.
Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Play both defenses in this one.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though sub-$2K players on DraftKings (who may have some impact in possible game narratives) include Gus Edwards (Ravens blowout) and Darwin Thompson (Darrel Williams ankle issues).
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
- Lamar Jackson
- Travis Kelce
- Patrick Mahomes
- Mark Andrews
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Tyreek Hill
- Marquise Brown
- Mark Ingram II
- Justin Tucker
- Harrison Butker
- J.K. Dobbins
- Mecole Hardman
- Willie Snead IV
- Ravens DST
- Miles Boykin
- DeMarcus Robinson
- Gus Edwards
- Darrel Williams
- Chiefs DST
- Sammy Watkins (questionable, neck)
