DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
Home / Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes

Welcome to the inaugural edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props.  In this article, we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us. 

Not already a PrizePicks member?  Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100.  And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.   

Conference Championship Picks

Joe Burrow – 282.5 Passing Yards

One of the first things I look at when trying to find targetable props on PrizePicks is to see what some of the SportsBooks have these players at.  FanDuel currently has a line of 291.5 passing yards for Burrow.  We are essentially getting Burrow at a 9 yard discount on PrizePicks today.  This 282.5 yard prop is one that Burrow should have no trouble hitting today. 

He’s crushed this number 3 out of his last 4 games.  Last week vs. Tennessee he went for close to 350 yards. We also saw Josh Allen shred this defense in the fourth quarter.  While the addition of Tyrann Mathieu should help Chiefs secondary today, I’m still going to go with the Over on this one as I think this game turns into a shootout similar to last week.

Patrick Mahomes – 283.5 Passing Yards

What can’t Mahomes do at this point?  While Mahomes is a special quarterback during the regular season, what he does in the playoffs is on a whole different level.  So far in the 2022 playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 404 and 378 passing yards.  He’s on a mission and I just don’t see the Bengals secondary being able to slow him down. 

Although the Bengals were able to hold Tannehill to just 220 passing yards last weekend, they did give up over 300 yards to Derek Carr the weekend before in the Wild Card game.  If Carr can do it, I see no scenario where Mahomes doesn’t.  Look for Mahomes to crush his 283.5-yard prop.

Joe Mixon – 51.5 Rushing Yards

This is the one I’m least confident of if we’re being honest.  I’m going to side with the over, but I can definitely see a case where he is under this prop.  If the Bengals have any hope of winning today they’ll need to own the ground game and use up as much of the clock as possible.  This would lead to Mixon having a solid game on the ground. 

Mixon has hit this number 3 out of the last 5 weeks.  Last week he rushed for 54 yards.  In the 2 weeks he didn’t hit the number, he was still within a handful of yards of hitting.  I like the Over on this one but wouldn’t blame you for going Under.

Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 Receiving Yards

Chase continues to just dominate teams.  Will he be this week’s Gabriel Davis and shred the Chiefs secondary?  There’s a good chance of it.  If we look at what Chase has done over the last 5 weeks, it’s pretty incredible.  We can throw out the meaningless game against the Browns.  I

n the other 4 games he’s broken 200 yards once and 100 yards in the other 3 teams.  I love Burrow’s Over number today and a big part of it will due to the play of Chase.  PrizePicks is giving us an 84.5-yard prop today.  I’m confident in saying that Chase blows this away today. 

Travis Kelce – 70.5 Yards

While Tyreek Hill has the breakaway speed and big-play mantra, it’s Kelce who is the steady Eddie of the 2.  Kelce was targeted 9 times last week and caught 8 of them for 96 yards.  Where Kelce goes, Mahomes goes.  With Mahomes expected to have another monster playoff performance today, expect Kelce to be a big part of it.  Kelce has hit this number 3 of the last 5 weeks.  Look for him to make it 4 of 6 today.  I’m siding with the Over on this one too.

Make sure to read all of our other NFL articles here.

Good luck and hope to see some green screens today! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are set to host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills Sunday Evening in what should be a high-scoring affair. The winner of this game moves to within 2 wins of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

PrizePicks has set the bar extremely low for Mahomes with a .5 passing yard prop. It doesn’t take a seasoned veteran to know that this prop pick is an absolute given and one that we need to take full advantage of! This yardage is one that Mahomes can get in his sleep.

Who will be the pass-catcher that catches his first pass and gets him to the over on this prop? Will it be Tyreek Hill? Will it be Travis Kelce? Or will it be Byron Pringle?

Head on over to PrizePicks and Sign up today using promo code WINDAILY to not only take advantage of this incredible player prop, but you’ll also get a deposit bonus of up to $100 when making your first deposit.

Also make sure to check out all of our articles covering all the divisional round games here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 15 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week ...

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Tonight’s Thursday night match up should be one of the better TNF games of the year.  We have a battle between the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) and the team right behind them in the standings, the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5).  A win by the Chargers tonight and the two teams are tied In the standings.  A win by the Chiefs and they open up a commanding 2 game lead with just 3 to play.  This battle tonight brings us a matchup between 2 of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. 

Let’s dig in and see if the we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Justin Herbert – 289.5 Passing Yards – Less

On the year Justin Herbert has been brilliant.  The 23-year old QB has thrown for over 3,800 yards and after tonight should get to the 4,000 passing yard mark.  If we take a look at the 289 yards that Monkey Knight Fight has given us tonight, he’s gotten to that number 7 times this year.  In fact, all 7 of those times he threw for over 300 yards.

With that said, Chiefs defense has been playing much better of late.  They haven’t given up more than 270 yards passing since week 5 against the Bills and were able to hold Derek Carr under 265 twice during the last 4 weeks.  Yes, the same Derek Carr that is second to only Tom Brady for passing yards this season.  With the Chiefs secondary being tough of late, I’m going to go w/ the Less on this prop.  

Patrick Mahomes – 287.5 Passing Yards – More

In looking at the Chargers defense, they’ve been a little more inconsistent than the Chiefs.  Over the last 5 weeks the Chargers have given up more than 290 yards twice and both were to stand out quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow.  If we look at 2 of their better games during that 5 game stretch, they were against Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Glennon.  Not quite guys that jump out at you when you think upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks. 

In a game that should be closer than any game the Chiefs have had in a number of weeks my gut tells me that the game script will call for Mahomes to throw the ball a little more than he’s had to recently.  While the 287.5 yards that Monkey Knight Fight is giving us is high tonight, I do think that Mahomes gets there tonight.  I’m siding with the More on this one. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes (+2.5 passing yards)

I’ve highlighted in the More or Less section that I think only one of these quarterbacks hits their Monkey Knife Fight target tonight.  With that being Patrick Mahomes and both targets being very close, I’m siding with Mahomes on the Rapid Fire tonight.       

Tyreek Hill vs. Keenan Allen (+5.5 receiving yards)

With both quarterbacks expected to air it out tonight, this should be a fun matchup that Monkey Knife Fight has given us between Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen.  Both guys have been extremely solid this year.  Allen has 929 receiving yards through 12 games and Hill has 1,030 through 13.  So we know we have 2 guys that have sky’s the limit potential.  I’m going to side with Hill on this one tonight. 

I don’t think there is another player in the NFL with the upside that Hill has.  His game logs in the last couple of games look rough.  But those logs have more to do w/ game script than it does with Hill.  The Chiefs were winning convincingly in both of their recent games and the need just wasn’t there for Hill.  Tonight should be a closer matchup and Hill will be more of an active participant if the Chiefs have any hope of winning.  Monkey Knife Fight is giving Allen an extra 5.5 yards tonight but I don’t’ think it will matter.  I’m siding with Hill on this one. 

Good luck tonight and hope you cash!

Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candida...

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 43, Steelers -4.5

Yuck. That is all I have to say about this contest with the injury situation in Seattle. This will not be the prettiest game in the world but it should be a fun one to target for fantasy. Who would have thought that in 2021 we would be seeing Geno Smith starting a football game. I think the total is pretty spot on but I am not quite sold that a Seahawks team post legion of boom, without Chris Carson, and without Russell Wilson would only be 4.5 point dogs on a road game in Pittsburgh. One thing I am interested to see is the Steelers O-line and whether the league worst 2.3 seconds per throw will improve since this should be the easiest pass rush that the Steelers have faced to date. I do plan on taking a few shots on Big Ben in the event that he does get enough time to throw. I do not like the circumstances that he is dealing with but I am nowhere near as low on him as a QB as most others are. But that is the beauty of fantasy sports, we get to put some money on it and reap the rewards if we are correct.


Chalk: Najee Harris, $17,700:

The clear cut chalk in tonight’s game is Najee and I really do not think anyone will be within 5%. Najee as a rookie is already top three in the NFL in touches and leader in targets five weeks into the season and this game script is perfect for him to have a huge showing. If all goes to plan Najee will likely be the raw points leader when it is all said and done but there are a few options below that I think we can roll with to get a little different and get a little better value at captain in order to fit one extra “stud” in your build.

Pivot: Dionte Johnson, $14,700:

With no Juju tonight there are a handful of extra targets to go around tonight and even as bad as Big Ben looks this year Dionte’s big play ability and his 10-12 targets a game against this week Hawks D could be a points bonanza so as far as pivots go he is my main guy. My choice to go with Dionte over Claypool is simply due to the number of targets and I think Chase has slightly higher ownership as a captain so I am splitting the smallest of hairs here.

Contrarian #1: Chase Claypool, $13,200:

Chase is a beastly human being and he regularly turns 5 yard slants into 40 yard TD’s because of how strong he is. If you choose to roll with him as your captain over Dionte you are not going to see me complaining about it. My only concern as I noted above is that Dionte gets around double the targets as Claypool any given week but he can very easily turn 6 targets into 120 yards and 2 TD’s.

Contrarian #2: DK Metcalf, $15,000:

With Geno throwing the football I am in no way confident about the receiving corps of the Seahawks but if I had to choose one I am going to go for the bigger target with the inaccurate arm of Smith. Smith is going to make some terrible throws tonight but a physical talent like DK should be able to win a number of the 50/50 balls tonight and potentially convert them into big plays downfield. This will likely be the only time you will also see a players like DK in a showdown slate at sub 5% in the captain spot. Do not go overweight on this one as I have minimal confidence here but the leverage it provides is substantial if his talent can overcome the shortcomings at the QB position.

Contrarian#3: Ben Roethlisberger, $16,500:

Yes I know Ben has played like garbage this season but if we feel confident about Harris in the receiving game, Dionte Johnson, and Chase Claypool then it stands to reason that the person throwing the ball to them will have a good game as well. Ben has had the least amount of time to throw in the NFL (2.28 sec) so I am not 100% laying the blame at his feet just yet. This will be the weakest pass rush by far for the Steelers so if they can give been somewhere closer to 2.8 or maybe even 3 seconds that will give longer developing routes time to develop and maybe turn into some big plays for Ben. I know that everyone is quick to talk about his arm strength but when given the time I have seen him uncork several throws well over 50 yards this season and I do not think that anyone will be using him as a captain in tonight’s contest.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 Flex Plays:

  1. Najee Harris
  2. Dionte Johnson
  3. Chase Claypool
  4. DK Metcalf
  5. Tyler Lockett
  6. Ben Roethlisberger
  7. Alex Collins
  8. Gino Smith
  9. Gerald Everette
  10. Steelers D
  11. Pat Freiermuth
  12. Chris Boswell
  13. Jason Meyers
  14. Eric Ebron
  15. Freddie Swain
  16. Will Dissly
  17. Travis Homer

Kickers and defenses:

This is a Sunday night game where Kickers and at least one defense is in play. With Geno Smith at QB for the Seahawks the Steelers defense could have themselves a huge night. He has never been able to make good choices with heavy pressure in his face and the Hawks O-line is yet again one of the worst in the NFL. Both Jason Meyers and Chris Boswell should get scoring opportunities with long field goals as

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Seahawks at Steelers 10.17 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.

Vegas Script: Total: 56.5 Chiefs -3

This game needs no explanation. The two highest-scoring offenses in the league square off against one another in a 56.5 total game. The story as of late has been the defense of the Bills if you ask the pundits, but we all know the truth. They played the Steelers, Dolphins, Washington, and Houston. It is easy to look dominant against backup QBs and the worst O-Line in the NFL. That flat-out just will not happen tonight. But enough of that let us take a look at the most obvious captain’s picks of the year and see where we can find some value because this is honestly one of the hardest showdowns you could play in due to the number of elite options out there on both sides.


Chalk: Josh Allen $18,600:

It’s 1A versus 1B between Mahomes and Allen tonight and I think the ownership will play that out. The only reason that I am going with Allen as the main chalk is the higher rushing upside and touchdown equity. After back-to-back 40 point outings for the Bills it is hard to say what they and Allen will be able to do with a team that can actually keep up with them.

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes $18,000:

It is Patrick Mahomes, what else do you need to know? I know the the big networks were slobbering over the recent play of the Bills defense but they have playing 3 of 4 games against backups and the Steelers have the worst protection schemes in the NFL on the o-line outside of the Jags and Bears (with Nagy calling plays)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce, $13,800:

Kelce let a ton of people down last week so the difference between him and Hill is next to nothing, but we can take that recency bias and hopefully get ourselves the slightest of benefit with ownership. After Hill went off for 50 DK last week I will lean on Kelce attacking the Bill’s safety’s tonight and being my preferred contrarian play at captain in this contest.

Contrarian #2: Tyreek Hill

12 catches for 186 yards and 3 TDs. That is what the cheetah did to the Eagles last week. Can he do it again, absolutely? But as I mentioned above I am trying to split the finest of hairs and I think we can get Kelce at a few percent discount at captain over Hill. Like everyone else in this article for captain choices, his body of work speaks for itself.

Contrarian#3: Stefon Diggs :

The Odd man out if you want to get different is Diggs. He has only had one game of over 20 DK points and everyone is shooting for the moon tonight so I think he comes in as by far the lowest “stud” captain. Allen has been finding multiple receivers with guys like Davis, Sanders, and Beasley on the field as well as Dawson Knox, Zack Moss, and Devin Singletary playing nicely in the early going. But in big games, the big-name players are the ones who are supposed to take over and this is a perfect spot to get different and leverage against the four players I listed about.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10 Flex Plays:

  1. Emmanuel Sanders
  2. Zack Moss
  3. Dawson Knox
  4. Cole Beasley
  5. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  6. Mecole Hardman
  7. Demarcus Robinson
  8. Gabriel Davis
  9. Byron Pringle
  10. Harrison Butker
  11. Tyler Bass
  12. Josh Gordon
  13. Jody Fortson

Kickers and defenses:

I am fully fading both of these defenses tonight but with so many high-priced guys if you absolutely have to throw in a kicker to upgrade elsewhere it is an easy way to get a solid floor. Just understand that if you choose to go that route you are going to be limited in your upside with a kicker in this kind of game so make sure that the trade-off is worth it.

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bills at Chiefs 10.10. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

We’re bringing you NFL DFS analysis that breaks down the Super Bowl Showdown contests — helping you win big money in the big game!

Let’s start off by acknowledging that the Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites on the road against the best QB in NFL history, and that the chalkiest game script would make Tom Brady the most likely candidate to rack up the most points on either site – especially considering how much the Bucs spread the ball around to multiple receivers.

If the Chiefs jump out to any kind of lead in this road game, there’s a very good chance the Bucs will make a run – and there’s not much of a chance the Chiefs blow out Tampa Bay on their home turf.

There are some interesting pricing options we should observe – most notably the low DK price on Ronald Jones II and the relatively high tag for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on both sites. Neither of these guys should be written off. I’ll be mixing in hares of both backs considering their talents and the long time they’ve had to recover from injuries – not to mention the relatively low ownership they’ll garner despite soaring upside. I’m comfortable using both in 2/10 builds, and one or the other in three of the remaining eight. Darrel Williams may be the better Chiefs back to own assuming a Bucs win, since he’s the more prolific pass catcher of the two Chiefs backs (excluding Le’Veon Bell – who is expected to be available in an admittedly uncertain role).

Considering how bad the Chiefs run defense is, there’s even a chance that I play both Leonard Fournette and Jones in the one or two contrarian builds (out of ten) that DON’T feature Tom Brady – whose last Super Bowl performance (2018 season) was an unmitigated bust: 262-0-1 in a 13-3 win against a stalwart Rams defense. But this Chiefs defense is not the same animal as that Rams unit – and I’m fairly certain the Chiefs would prefer a 60+ point game total to a defensive battle.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, will have the most trouble stopping Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – both of whom offer mismatches for contrasting reasons – Kelce for his size and ability to manhandle smaller defenders in the middle of the field and in the red zone, and Hill for his blazing speed and the separation he gets in the open field. Both should be chalky, but paired with the right QB (it’s going to be very difficult to fit both Brady and Patrick Mahomes), either of these players has a good chance to post 25+ fantasy points.

Having the Bucs DST in a stack with Jones is probably the best contrarian RB/DST route we can go, and it leaves plenty of salary for working in Mahomes/Kelce or Mahomes/Hill.

There’s also some merit to playing the Bucs TEs (one or both of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate) in a stack with Brady – and it’s actually one of the ways to get both QBs in your lineup. This is assuming Mahomes does enough running and throwing himself to warrant consideration in a shootout at that obscene price tag. Gronk should be ready for a bigger workload in the biggest game he’s played since SB LIII, and Brate has five or more targets in three straight games. About one-quarter of the receiving yardage against the Chiefs came via the TE position this season, and Brate and Gronk’s usage in Week 12 against the Chiefs (Gronk ran 27 routes and caught 7-106-0 on eight targets; Brate saw six targets on 20 routes) fits that narrative. If Brady’s passing numbers soar, it’s very possible that him with WR/TE/TE could be the winning stack.

We’re not ignoring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and we’re certainly looking the way of Scotty Miller for his price – but unless we hear that Antonio Brown is 100 percent and prepping for a big role, I’m comfortable leaving him out of the equation this week. If he’s active, he’ll garner some minimal ownership, but he’s yet to make a huge impact on this Bucs team except as a distraction, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Evans and Godwin are way too expensive to play together along with Brady and the requisite Chiefs players.

Let’s talk briefly about defense/special teams. The pairings that work best for using a DST assume a defensive or special teams TD, so using one of the Bucs RBs with Jaydon Mickens (just $200 at FLEX on DK) and the Bucs DST could work. Conversely, the Chiefs DST could be paired with Mecole Hardman, who is $5,600 but offers some upside in the regular offense on end-arounds or quick-hitting catch-and-run plays that find him in space and galloping for greatness.

Let’s summarize and look at some Captain/MVP possibilities:

Super Bowl NFL DFS Captain/MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (DK $11,700, FD $12,500)

FD/DK Value: Ronald Jones II (DK $2,200 FLEX, FD $8,000), Darrel Williams (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $9,000). Scotty Miller (DK $3,400 FLEX, FD $6,500)

With these prices and scenarios in mind, let’s look at some of the possibilities on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – DraftKings

The 1.5x bonus is nice, but you’ve got to pay the piper for it. We’ve discussed Brady as the best possible captain choice and how you can make it work with Scotty Miller and TEs, but if you roll that way in a smattering of your MME builds you really have to alternate some Chiefs (CEH/Hill or CEH/Kelce).

This is also the only site we can utilize some of the DST touchdown stacks (with the kick returners), so bear that in mind.

It’s also the site where we can roll the dice on RoJo or play around with the idea of using the salary-saving Scotty Miller as captain. And since we have to fill six spots, kickers are a little more in play than they are on FD – where there are just five slots.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – FanDuel

While things are a little more straightforward on FD (higher minimum price, no defenses and flat cost for all positions) you have to get a little more creative to build a unique lineup. This makes single-entry tournaments even more attractive and means you can more comfortably roster a big-impact, large-volume skill position players who’s not a QB (I’m looking at all four RBs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you’re looking for a narrow player pool).

That said, I still prefer Tom Brady in the captain spot on FD. He’s got a lot of productive pass-catching weapons, he likes to spread it around, and he’s going to rack up points in about eight of the 10 narratives we’ve discussed.

I probably won’t be using kickers in my FD builds.

A couple more things:

  1. Pay attention to new WinDaily handicapper Mike North’s betting preview and any updates he makes.
  2. Check out Mike and Sia’s podcast breakdown.

Lastly — keep an eye out for injury updates and breaking news right up to lock for NFL DFS. A lot can happen the night before a Super Bowl, even during the time of COVID.

10:30 a.m. injury/news update

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) had been trending in the right direction and will suit up for Super Bowl LV. While his usage in the big game is a huge question mark, he probably won’t receive his normal complement of snaps and routes. Just because he’s active doesn’t mean he should be a staple of your builds, and he’s certainly not cash-viable. Chiefs C Daniel Kilgore (COVID-19 precautions) was also cleared for the Super Bowl after testing negative all week as a high-risk close contact — but that’s just context. Explosive but underutilized WR Demarcus Robinson has also been removed from the team’s COVID list and will be available.

Antonio Brown (knee) and Cameron Brate (back) are also active, which means the Bucs will be at full strength offensively despite Brown’s previous inactivity and Brate’s back injury he sustained in practice this week. I’m still hesitant to play Brown, and Brate’s DFS upside depends largely on snap count and red zone usage.

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

With the start of the NFL Playoffs, Collector’s Corner will take a look at what trading cards could see a bump based on their impending gridiron success. We’ll start with the AFC.

Note: Collector’s Corner will use my DFS-derived Cash/GPP/Punt terminology (introduced in part 2 of my NBA preview piece) to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

First Round Bye

Kansas City Chiefs

CashPatrick Mahomes rookie trading cards remain the most sought-after and expensive slabs on the market. There’s still some room for growth, and the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run. If you can’t afford the 2017 rookies, there are plenty of 2018-2020 products that still command high prices and are worth grabbing. And the second-year PSA 9s won’t break your bankroll.

GPPTyreek Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are probably the two players with the most growth potential on the Chiefs, as a 2016 Panini Prizm Silver (in a PSA 10) sold for just $375 in November, and the injury to Clyde Edwards-Helaire (and acquisition of Le’Veon Bell) slowed the hype train on the Chiefs rookie RB. I just bought a gorgeous SGC 10 of Hill’s Prizm Silver rookie for $275 – I like the SGC slabs better anyway and this could easily be a $450-500 trading card if he shines again in the playoffs.

PuntTravis Kelce is a great player, but tight end trading cards don’t typically command the prices that QBs, RBs and even WRS do. Excluding his beautiful 2013 National Treasures autos and RPAs, Kelce’s rookies are affordable and prime for more growth as collectors realize what a generational talent he is at the position and how he’s a near lock for HOF enshrinement in Canton.

Wild Card games

The Best: Bills, Ravens, Titans

Buffalo Bills

CashJosh Allen is the guy to collect right now, period. I’m buying up Prizms and Donruss Rated Rookies – as well as any and all parallels when I can – and I’ve already seen 50% growth in a die-cut 2018 Obsidian Cutting Edge rookie patch card (pictured below) I got for under $50 a couple of weeks ago. His 2018 Prizm trading cards are selling for outrageous prices, but I think as long as the Bills aren’t done, neither is that profit potential. I really like his Prizm Red, White and Blue rookie card, which can be found in retail cello packs from that year. 2018 products are still a solid buy, as we’ve got Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley in that class as well, and the prices dropped a bit with the Barkley injury and while Jackson struggled through some November chill.

GPPStefon Diggs and Devin Singletary have a few things going against them for maximum value. Diggs rookies are in Minnesota Vikings gear, and Singletary splits the backfield with Zack Moss – who’s a solid rookie buy that hasn’t seen much of a jump at all. I might pivot to cheaper low-numbered 2020 Diggs parallels instead of shelling out big bucks for his Vikings trading cards.

PuntGabriel Davis could have a solid career if he cuts down on the stupid penalties and continues to improve. There’s a lot to like about him and his cards are very affordable – but the Bills have lots of skill position players who could overshadow him.

Some of the Gabriel Davis cards I’ve collected this past year. He’s a physically gifted receiver in a good spot for production in Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens

CashLamar Jackson falls just behind Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and ahead of Baker Mayfield (more on him later). He’s almost a GPP buy because of the questions about his long-term viability, but I think there’s still plenty of growth potential. If the Ravens can pull off a couple of playoff wins and he plays well – we could see an immediate jump back to the where the prices were in 2019.

GPPJ.K. Dobbins is probably the best buy on the Ravens right now, and his cards remain cheap because he shares backfield duties with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram II. That won’t last, so get yourself one of his rookies.

Punt Patrick Queen and Devin Duvernay are cheap and while defensive players don’t fare all that well, standout Ravens ILBs have a legacy all their own. Duvernay has a lot of talent but needs some development before his cards do anything at all.

Tennessee Titans

CashDerrick Henry is a beast, and there’s a live eBay auction right now for a PSA 10 Gem Mint example of his 2016 Prizm Silver rookie. It’ll be interesting to see how high it goes, since the recent sold examples encompass a wide range from $450 to well over $600.

GPPRyan Tannehill and A.J. Brown trading cards have some juice, but they’d have a lot more if the Titans somehow went to the Super Bowl. Hey they came close last year!

Punt – I might invest in a few Darrynton Evans and Corey Davis (2017) rookie cards, but they are definitely punts that would need a few planets to align before they saw a discernible jump.

I’ve had this card since I pulled the redemption card in a 2017 Panini Phoenix hobby box that yielded terrible autos — but one awesome Rookie Rising parallel of Patrick Mahomes #d/49 that I sold raw (like a chump) a couple of years ago. If I only knew how high his cards would go in the ensuing two years…

The Rest: Colts, Browns, Steelers

Indianapolis Colts

Cash – I highly recommend buying up the Colts in team breaks for their talented rookies – led by Jonathan Taylor. Taylor’s trading cards are on the rise but still affordable – and there’s lots of excellent products to choose from (2020 Mosaic, Prizm Draft, Prizm and Phoenix are my favorites).

GPP Michael Pittman, Jr. has a great frame and a bright future in the NFL. We’ve seen flashes of what he’s capable of, but he’s lost a bit in the exceptional 2020 WR class.

Punt Jacob Eason base cards are dirt cheap – because his future is uncertain compared to the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and even QB-in-waiting Jordan Love. Other than being buried on the depth chart for the rest of 2020, the biggest knock on his future is his mobility. If he has elite upside, it’s more Peyton Manning than Patrick Mahomes, since he doesn’t operate well in the muddy pockets that characterize modern NFL football.

Cleveland Browns

Cash Baker Mayfield cards are selling for about one-quarter of what Josh Allen cards are commanding at the moment, which is pretty insane when you consider that both QBs have unlimited potential. Raw 2018 Prizm base rookies can be had for $15-20, and they’re hard to find in a PSA 10. If you see one of those for under $1K, buy it.

GPP Nick Chubb is a stud, and he’s part of that solid 2018 draft class. If I were a Browns fan, I’d be buying up all his stuff. I might just do it anyway.

This 1/1 NFL Shield card of Chubb is for sale on eBay.

Punt – I have a really sweet 2020 Harrison Bryant Prizm Draft Picks auto (numbered 6/25) for sale on eBay, and I get lowball offers for it all the time. I might just pull it off my listings if he shines in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cash – Some Ben Roethlisberger trading cards are quite expensive but base rookies still have some growth potential, especially if he can make another run at the Lombardi trophy. Sadly, I don’t think this team has the running game to get it done.

GPP JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are all decent buys, but their long-term value depends on the future of the QB position.

Punt Anthony McFarland, Jr. is my buy-low guy, and I don’t think he’s been given a fair shot at touches with the other Steelers RBs struggling so much this season. Maybe he’ll break out in 2021.

Stay tuned for Part 2 — the NFC!

0 comment
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

"*" indicates required fields

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.


    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    Update Required Flash plugin