Tag:

Patrick Mahomes

DFS: Injury Updates- Fades/Plays

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

As the season marches on injuries begin to pile on. At this point, no player is completely healthy making the injury landscape a deep shade of gray. Luckily, I’m here to help you wade through the waters of uncertainty with the DFS Injury Update- Fades and Plays. Keep in mind that all of the following prices are pulled from DraftKings.

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Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)

I won’t bury the lead and start with the player everybody is asking about: “Patty” Mahomes. From a DFS perspective, it’s tough to fade Mahomes at all- cash or tournaments- but coming off an instability injury like a dislocation makes me nervous about a re-injury. The flip side of this argument is that Mahomes is unlike any talent we’ve every seen, and the literature says that his relative risk of re-dislocation, though elevated, is still not likely. Additionally, what he might lack in mobility, he more than makes up for with his ~~cannon~~ arm. So, the net injury perspective of these arguments is that I would consider using Mahomes in his first week back as leverage against the majority of people who would normally play him but won’t this week due to the injury. Don’t go over board with your shares in cash games, but the Chiefs’ running game is non-existent and if the offensive line can protect long enough for a few deep shots down the field, count me in.

Jacoby Brissett ($6,000)

Brissett sprained his MCL last week against the Steelers, but has continued practicing this week in a limited capacity. The MCL is responsible for stabilizing the knee and preventing it from caving and rotating inward during planting and cutting. I’m not concerned about Brissett dropping back and passing, but I am worried about his side to side mobility in the pocket. He’s also at a relatively elevated risk for re-injury to that ligament. All in all, Brissett is a fade for me altogether as I can see this being a big game for Marlon Mack ($7,000) and the running game. This will help to protect Brissett from contact and run down the clock on a terrible Miami defense.

Update: Jacoby Brissett has was unexpectedly been ruled out. I think this has less to do with Brissett’s injury and more to do with the Colts’ confidence in beating the Dolphins.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1193216576633348097?s=20

Marquise Brown ($5,100)

Next up on the DFS Injury Update- Fades and Plays is Marquise Brown, who has been dealing with nagging injuries all year. It’s concerning to me that even after a bye week, he re-aggravated an ankle injury. If you combine his limited practice participation on Friday with the fact that he has only scored more than ten DraftKing points once since Week Two, this makes Brown a fade for me in cash. I might consider him in a handful of tournaments given they play the last-place Bengals. This might be a bounce-back game for Mark Andrews ($5,200) from a passing game perspective.

George Kittle ($6,700)

Kittle is dealing with a knee and ankle injury that is compounded by an ongoing groin issue. As of today, San Francisco has not released his practice participation but at this point, he is considered questionable. Very questionable. It’s an absolute bummer, but Kittle is a fade for me on the Monday night slates even if he is active as there are simply too many moving parts to his injury situation to comfortably use him. The good news for those playing this slate is that Emmanuel Sanders is only $100 more expensive and will likely absorb the targets Kittle would normally see in a game that could easily smash the over of 46.

Updated List

In case you haven’t heard, Matthew Stafford ($6,400) will not play today due to a back injury. Jeff Driskel ($4,100) is a complete hail mary and not worth using in tournaments as a journeyman backup who has not made a single professional start since entering the league in 2016.

Amari Cooper ($7,200)

The Cowboys hadn’t given much insight on Cooper’s injury this week until the practice report revealed his limited participation. Cooper went from a limited practice, to sitting, then back to a limited practice again on Friday. If you remember, Cooper had a thigh contusion a couple of weeks back, and this very well could be the same injury. They’re painful to play through and stubborn to heal. Additionally, Cooper’s day was saved last week by a late touchdown catch and run in a game where he otherwise had just three receptions on 35 yards. Is this lingering injury holding him back? The up and down nature of this injury makes Cooper a volatile play this week, but may raise the ceiling of one Michael Gallup ($6,300). I’m not using Cooper in cash games this week and would consider Gallup in tournaments.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

To say JuJu has been a disappointment this year is less of an indictment on him, and more a reflection of the Steelers as a whole. When “Big Ben” went down in Week Two that offense entered a state of disarray and JuJu has arguably taken the biggest hit in terms of production. To make matters worse, JuJu popped on the injury report on Friday with a foot injury. This foot injury caused him to be on the DFS Injury Update in previous weeks. All things considered, JuJu is a complete fade for me this week.

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Update- Fades and Plays. If you have any more injury questions make sure to follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc and check back with me here for updates.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Merson.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Brandon C. Williams 4 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi and BCW take a look ahead at Week 10 and the potential impact players to consider. The two also discuss how to handle teams with a pair of top end WRs while resetting two age-old questions that includes a WKRP in Cincinnati take.

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NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

The NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW looks at how the changing weather will impact DFS usage, especially at QB and WR. The focus then goes to Week 10, where injuries across the board at RB makes the use of Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey vital. Next, the pair look at QBs who have sleeper potential along with the ones to avoid. Finally, the duo focuses on WRs and TEs and point out a number of solid plays.

Thank you for listening to the NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Start/Sit Injury Projection – Play or Fade?

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Eight is in the books, so let’s move on to the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. In this week’s article I’ll discuss a few players who could make their return from injuries in Week Nine as well as a few others who are planning to play through the bumps and bruises. I’ll also discuss whether or not these players can perform well enough from an injury perspective or fade them. I’ll start with the Thursday night game.

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David Johnson

I’ll start with the elephant in the room. What’s going on with David Johnson? Well, if we knew exactly what the deal is, we wouldn’t have to rely on Kingsbury for information. The coach has proven to have quite the poker face in terms of injuries. For example, Christian Kirk, who was a “game-time” decision last week, performed extremely well and did not appear to be limited. What we do know is that D.J.’s injury is related to his ankle, which generally means it’s either a lateral sprain, or of the high ankle variety. It’s not uncommon for players to suffer lateral ankle sprains, try to play too quickly, and re-injure themselves. Conversely, a high ankle sprain typically would not allow a player to come back after one week as DJ did in Week Seven. So, what does all of this mean? If D.J. is dealing with a re-aggravated lateral ankle sprain, the Thursday turn around simply might be too quick of a turnaround. Even if he’s active, I don’t want to use him in any Showdown slates as the 49ers defense is as stout as they come. Fade him.

Matt Breida

Unbelievably, this is Breida’s first appearance on the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. It seems that he always misses at least one quarter of every game due to injury. However he rarely is in danger of missing time. On Sunday he was forced out of action due to an ankle injury, and I’m concerned about the exact mechanism of injury. I tweeted about it here. Long story short, I think Breida may be dealing with a high ankle sprain, which depending on severity can hold him out for several weeks. I would not plan on having Breida in any lineups, but even if he suits up, I’m sitting him.

Patrick Mahomes

No. Not yet.

Davante Adams

Week Nine marks 38 days since we’ve seen Adams on a football field. That’s about five weeks, so there is a high probability he plays against the Chargers seeing as grade II turf toe injuries take four to six weeks to heal. Check back with me as the week progresses because this would be the game to use the Packers’ target hog at $7,100 on DraftKings. If he’s active, I have no concerns of re-injury for Adams. Lock. Smash. Cash.

Marquise Brown

“Hollywood” is another player who I suspect is dealing with a high ankle injury. The reason for that thought is due to the fact that he has not played in three weeks, and is now planning on a Week Nine return. Regardless of the past, I’m not afraid to use Brown in tournaments as it relates to injury. However, I am extremely hesitant to play him against the New England Patriots defense.

Dede Westbrook

I’m nervous about Westbrook’s availability in Week Nine. The immediate thought when players are dealing with shoulder and neck injuries is nerve root irritation. The spinal nerves exit all throughout the spine, and the ones from the neck go directly to the shoulder and upper back. When nerves are irritated they can cause shoulder and neck pain, numbness and tingling, and tend to give that “asleep” feeling all the way down to the hand. Now, this is speculation on my end, but that type of injury is definitely within the realm of possibilities. If he’s active, I’m sitting Westbrook.

James Conner

Conner has an AC joint sprain. That means the ligament connecting the outside portion of his clavicle bone and the tip of his shoulder bone was damaged to some extent. These injuries can be minor or cost players up to four weeks of action. Check back with me as we’re not sure of the severity quite yet, but if he manages to suit up, there is a risk that he re-injures the joint. I’m staying away in cash and would consider Jaylen Samuels in tournaments instead. Sit Conner.

Adam Thielen

Say it with me class: grade I and II hamstring strains can cost players one to three weeks of missed time. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times. Thielen’s chances of playing are better than last week, but I’m not convinced he’s ready yet. Check back with me to read about his practice participation and the reports out of Minnesota. If he practices, I wouldn’t hesitate to use him against the Chiefs who can’t seem to cover running backs or slot receivers.

Thanks for reading the DFS Start/Sit Injury Projection. Make sure to check back here for updates as they come.

Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Week Seven Injury Report: Mahomes, Barkley and More

5 years ago

written by

Week Seven is upon us and the impending return of some key players is yet again in play. Last week hopefully you took my advice and beat the crowd to using Tyreek Hill while avoiding Alvin Kamara. In this iteration of the DFS Week Seven Injury Report I’ll once again touch on several players and their respective injuries.

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DeSean Jackson

In the middle of last week Jackson’s injury on the report changed from “groin” to “abdomen” which was unexpected but makes some sense. A muscle injury like Jackson’s can involve any of the muscles that attach to the pelvis from the leg or abdomen. Typically these can take anywhere from four to six weeks to heal, so I do not expect Jackson to play this week, but check with me again later this week. If he made some quick improvements over the weekend, I may be wrong.

Update: Jackson did not practice on Wednesday and in my estimation still seems a week or two away from returning. This abdomen injury is much more serious than the Eagles want to admit. Check back later this week to confirm he has not made unexpected improvements.

Patrick Mahomes

This one is driving me a bit batty as the general public has come together and decided as a unit that Mahomes’ ankle is damaged. The bottom line is that it was not taped on Sunday, his lateral mobility looked excellent, and he said himself after the game that it was not re-injured. Is the ankle bothering him some? It very well could be, but he is the exception to the rule when it comes to injury (as he is for most other things). His arm strength is so incredible that he does not need to step into his throws onto that ankle to be accurate. In fact, he’s made his mark in the league for more than a year now by doing exactly the opposite.The guy has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game this year and in Week Four Rushed for 54 yards. What else do you want from him to prove that he’s healthy? Confidently use in in the Showdown slates this Thursday as this offense continues to hum despite two consecutive losses.

Update: Talking heads continue to make a mess of Mahomes’ health. I suppose there aren’t enough news stories to fill all of the hours in a day. Below is a thread with former Chiefs Physical Therapist and Athletic Trainer, Aaron Borgmann. He and I remain in lock step on the severity (or lack thereof) of Mahomes’ injury. Most importantly, Monday’s estimated practice report listed Mahomes as a full participant. If Mahomes does not perform well tonight, it will not be because of a “bad ankle”.

https://twitter.com/RehabAllStar/status/1184819802520596484?s=20

Saquon Barkley

Week Seven marks Barkley’s first legitimate chance at playing on Sunday, as he hits the four week mark since his high ankle sprain. He’ll still have to practice in full at least once this week for me to be confident in his recovery, but if he suits up, expect the Saquon we all know and love. Don’t worry about re-injury.

Update: Barkley was a full participant in practice on Wednesday. I have no reservations about firing him up this week.

Evan Engram

Engram sprained his MCL in Week Five and was not able to play against the Patriots in Week Six. Typically these injuries take anywhere from one to three weeks to heal, but it all depends on his ability to stabilize the knee while cutting and running. If I report that Engram is able to practice this week, he has a shot at playing on Sunday.

Update: Barkley’s teammate also practiced in full on Wednesday. The only reservation I have on Engram is his history of MCL sprains. Given his specific circumstances, I would not be shocked if a re-injury occurs. However, he’s a fine play this week given the matchup.

Josh Gordon

According to the Patriots, Gordon avoided serious injury to his knee on Thursday, but was unable to return. This tells us quite a bit about the pain he was experiencing, as you would think he would do all he can to bolster that constantly thinning receiving corps. As such, I wouldn’t expect Gordon to suit up this week if we’re treating this as a traditional MCL sprain.

Update: The Patriots notoriously give reporters and writers alike headaches with their secretive style as it relates to team related issues. As a result, injuries are especially difficult to project. However, it is of note that Gordon did not practice on Tuesday. I’m not optimistic he plays this week.

Davante Adams

Next on the DFS Week Seven Injury Report is Davante Adams. Adams’ injury is much worse than the Packers let on a few weeks ago. Adams himself came out recently and told the media that there is ligament damage to his toe on MRI, automatically staging it as a grade II. A grade II turf toe problem can take anywhere from three to six weeks to heal, and with the Packers sitting pretty with only one loss this season, I don’t expect them to rush Adams back just 24 days after the sprain. Unless he practices in full this week, don’t expect Adams back until Week Eight at the earliest.

Update: Adams continues to be sidelined. Do not expect him back until Week Eight at the earliest.

Amari Cooper

Cooper suffered a thigh contusion on Sunday and did not return to the game. To make matters worse the contusion is of his quadriceps, which are responsible for extending the knee and bending the hip. Well, receivers need to do these motions repeatedly with no pain or limitations, which is exactly what a contusion causes. Contusions are much more painful than they are given credit for and I would not be surprised if Cooper misses Week Seven. Check back with me on his practice reports to confirm this.

Update: Cooper was out of practice Wednesday and I would not expect him to play this week.

Mid Week Additions

Todd Gurley and Malcom Brown

Gurley was not at practice again on Wednesday. Given his absence and the report of a contusion to the knee, I would not expect him to play this week unless he manages to get in at least a limited a practice this week. His teammate, Malcom Brown, missed practice on Wednesday, so check back with me later this week for further details. It may finally be Darrell Henderson SZN.

Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling

With a quick turnaround, Allison may not clear the concussion protocol before Sunday. That leaves his teammate, Valdes-Scantling as the lone starter remaining available if he is able to give it a go after a knee and ankle injury on Monday night. MVS returned in the fourth quarter for a big play, so that gives me guarded optimism he’ll suit up Sunday despite missing practice on Thursday.

That will do it for the DFS Week Seven Injury Report. Make sure to check back in with me as updates begin to roll in today and as always, follow me on Twitter @FFStudentDoc.

Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS Fantasy Football Podcast: QB Picks and Waiver Wire with DFS Pro Javi and BCW

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The DFS Fantasy Football Podcast features co-hosts Javi Prellezo (DFS Pro) and Brandon C. Williams discussing the Week 6 quarterback performances along with getting a look on the Week 7 plays to run with.

Week 7’s main slate will be thin on star talent. Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Tom Brady are among the quarterbacks playing prime-time games.

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Fantasy Football Podcast: Seriously, Josh Allen is a Week 7 play worth considering

Bills quarterback Josh Allen may not seem like an ideal Fantasy play, but he’s going against the Dolphins with a improved receiving corps that should offer more of Week 5 hero Duke Williams.

Daniel Jones can be an interesting play. The Giants QB gets to face the Cardinals, who are the worst defense in Fantasy when it comes to taking on quarterbacks. On the surface, he’s a major risk, but if TE Evan Engram returns, Jones has the makings of a punt play with value.

DFS: Week Six Injury Watch

Edwin Porras 5 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Fortunately, Week Five didn’t bring any severe injuries for skill players across the NFL. However, we are continuing to monitor a couple of the same players with a few new additions and updates. I’ll dive into the DFS Week Six Injury Watch so you can gain an edge against the competition and cash in big this week.

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Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes had his ankle rolled up on by one of his linemen on Sunday and was clearly in pain for the rest of the game. He’s been battling that same ankle sprain most of the season now and we have to start wondering if the injury is contributing to the Chiefs’ below average performances. He’ll no doubt be active this week, but check back with me to ensure his practice participation does not begin to move in the wrong direction.

Davante Adams

As I’ve mentioned before, the average missed time for a grade II turf toe injury is approximately four weeks. Given the information the Packers have offered, tissue healing times, and the statistical data available, all signs point to a healthy and active Adams in Week Six. Check back with me later in the week to verify this.

David Johnson

On Sunday Kliff Kinsbury said D.J. played through a “bad back” (whatever that means). Check back with me later this week as I’ll try to gather some more context on this mysterious back ailment.

Tyreek Hill

Hill’s first true opportunity at suiting up will come on the heels of the Chiefs’ first loss. He’ll have to take contact, report minimal pain, and obviously have no setbacks before this is a possibility. Check back with me later this week to see a breakdown of his practice participation.

Hunter Henry

The Chargers never placed Henry on the IR following his tibial plateau fracture. Sunday marks Four weeks since the injury and speculative reports about a Week Six return are already surfacing as Henry has not been officially ruled out. I am skeptical Henry will be active.

Brandin Cooks

Cooks suffered another concussion in Week Five against the Seahawks. The good news is that he’ll have 10 days to clear the protocol. The bad news is that Cooks has a history of concussions, so that extra time might end up being a wash. Check back with me on Cooks’ status for Week Six.

Updates and Additions:

Christian McCaffrey

CMC took quite the tumble on his way to the endzone on Sunday and was ruled out in the fourth quarter after landing in a similar manner. He sat out of practice on Wednesday and now faces a cross-continental flight. This makes me moderately nervous for his participation and performance in London. The worst case scenario here is that he fractured a lumbar vertebrate in his back (unlikely). The best case scenario is that he bruised his tailbone. I want to emphasize that this is speculation based on the video, so check back with me later in the week.

That will do it for the Week Six Injury Watch. Follow me on Twitter here and check this article for mid week injury updates.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Image via Keith Allison

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 6 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.

Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,400)

Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.

Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA at CLE

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.

Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU at KC

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.

3) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. PHI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.

5) Gardner Minshew, JAC vs. NO

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.

Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.

6) Andy Dalton, CIN at BAL

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.

Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.

7) Carson Wentz, PHI at MIN

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.

Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?

8) Jared Goff, LAR vs. SF

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.

Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.

9) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.

Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.

10) Dak Prescott, DAL at NYJ

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).

Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.

Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Josh Rosen, MIA vs. WAS

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)

The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CIN

DK ($6,900), FD ($8,000)

Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, NO at JAC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at DEN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,500)

Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.

5) Joe Flacco, DEN vs. TEN

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,600)

At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast: Week 6 QBs and Waiver Wire

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast, co-hosted by Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis, looks at the best quarterback plays of Week 6 along with a look at the Waiver Wire.

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PODCAST: Brandon and Antonio look at the best QB options for Week 6.

The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast answers why Matt Ryan a better Cash Game Play than either Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson and how the Eagles-Vikings game can be fool’s gold for both Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.

Seriously, Josh Rosen has Week 6 Fantasy value. Why it might be time to stop buying into Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense. The podcast concludes with a look at the top players available on the Week 6 Waiver Wire.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 5 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

Phil Naessens 5 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Week 5 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($8,000 FD)

I am expecting a lot of fireworks in this game. The Atlanta Falcons have looked terrible and they have had a relatively easy schedule. Watson is a dual threat QB, which I love. He has rushed for one touchdown in three of his four games. He has thrown for three touchdowns in two games and zero touchdowns in two games. The Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal for the season and should be more susceptible to the long ball here. Watson missed both Hopkins and Fuller on wide open deep shots last week and this week I expect him to be more accurate. Hopkins is currently ranked ninth in the NFL in receptions and 14th in targets in 2019. Will Fuller has not had his breakout game yet, but this is the week (more on him below)! If both Hop and Fuller get in the end zone I would not be surprised. Out of the Top Five DFS NFL quarterbacks, he will be my top guy.

Stud Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott

Mid Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($7,700 FD)

The Falcons are in desperation mode and I expect them to come out on Sunday and force the pass (because that is the only thing they have going for their offense). Matty Ice faces a Houston Texans team that is ranked 21st overall in total pass defense. They have given up 1,036 yards in the air and five touchdowns in four games. Ryan has seven touchdowns on the season and the second most yards in the NFL (1,250) in the first four games. Last week he scored 15.68 FD points, and that was without a single touchdown. There is a ton of pressure coming from the Falcons’ front office (and fans) right now and I am looking for an offensive “bounce-back”. Pair him with Julio, Ridley and/or Hooper and let’s hope the Birds all but abandon the lackluster run game and hang with the Texans. The Falcons and Matt Ryan are one of my favorite NFL DFS stacks this week.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Tom Brady ($7,600 FD) Either him or the running backs are going to break out vs the TERRIBLE Redskins.

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,100 FD)

He comes in as the overall most expensive player in the NFL DFS pool this week but he has earned it. If the Panthers are going to have a chance to win, it is pretty much on this guy’s back. He is getting more opportunities than anyone in the league right now. With Cam going down, Riverboat Ron is leaning even more on CMC. He has 367 all-purpose yards the past two games. He should get easily over 20 carries and be treated like a WR1. The Jags have been middle of the road when it comes to rush defense, but they have only played two teams with legit running threats (Titans and Broncos). CMC is certainly their toughest competition to date. I will take him over the Jags rush D any day.

Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook Very high on him as well, Ezekiel Elliot

Mid RB: David Johnson ($6,800 FD)

The Bengals are the sixth worst team against the run so far this year. They have given up 575 yards and five touchdowns. In the passing game goes, Cincy has given up 973 yards and eight passing touchdowns, which is the seventh worst in the NFL. David Johnson is going to have the opportunity to run and catch passes here. The last two games D.J. has been targeted an astounding 20 times through the air for 117 yards and one touchdown. Johnson has not been a top tier RB this year, but he has not been bad, contrary to popular belief. His price keeps dropping and he has over 15 FD points in three of his four games. That will work. At only $6,800 he makes a great NFL DFS play for me this week against a bad (like always) Bengals team.

Mid Pivot: Sony Michel

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,200 FD)

Matt Ryan should force feed arguably the league’s top receiver. A lot of the reasons I wrote for Ryan stand true for “Jet” Jones. The Falcons should just focus on what they are good at, the passing game. Jones already has four touchdowns, which is tied for first in the NFL. He has two games over 100 yards so far and should be in store for another one here. He averages 13.8 yards per catch and has 23 receptions on the season. He is my favorite NFL DFS receiver in Week Five.

Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Michael Thomas

Mid WR: Tyler Boyd (6,700 FD)

John Ross is doubtful this week, which should funnel more passes towards Tyler Boyd. In the first three games he was targeted over 10 times in each (and that was with John Ross going nuclear). The Arizona Cardinals have given up the second most touchdowns to pass catchers this year (10) and the ninth most yards (1,084). On a week when Tyler Eifert is going to be chalk, I really like the position pivot to Boyd (or using both). Last season Boyd scored far more touchdowns at home (six home, one away), and this was with A.J. Green on the field half of the time. Boyd gets in the end zone this week at a great NFL DFS price.

Mid WR Pivots: Alshon Jeffrey, Josh Gordon

Update: Removed Edelman, added MVS and Tate

Value WR: Will Fuller ($5,700 FD)

I am going back to Fuller this week one last time. His price is just too cheap and he gets a nice matchup at home against the Atlanta Falcons (mentioned under Watson). You don’t get points for air yards, but Will Fuller is 12th amongst wide receivers so far this year. Watson will look at Hopkins first, as he should, but the next most trusted guy is Fuller. It also helps that Kenny Stills is dealing with a hamstring injury and may not play. The Falcons have given up seven TDs to wide receivers so far, and I am thinking they give up a handful more this week.

WR Value Pivots: D.J. Chark, Calvin Ridley

Tight End

Tight End: Tyler Eifert ($4,600 FD)

The Cardinals are terrible against the tight end. Every single week the TE scores at least one touchdown. Tyler Eifert is going to be very popular in NFL DFS because of this, but targeting the Cards has worked every week so I am not going to get off it here. He is wayyy too cheap to not use him in a lineup or two.

Tight End Pivots: Austin Hooper, Zach Ertz

Update: Evan Engram

Defense

Patriots
Titans

Update: Removed Oakland Punt. Just pay up for Pats

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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