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NFL DFS

Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Listen, I feel guilty for not recommending TJ Hockenson last week. Of course we all saw 93 points coming in that game, and I should have been all over it! I kid, of course, and congrats to all who had TJ. He truly broke the slate at TE. Now that we are in Week 5, our goal is to find the TJ this week (maybe it IS TJ). Let’s get right to it.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Maybe I’m just an old curmudgeon, but typing the word “Commanders” for an NFL team makes me feel like I’m playing an unlicensed version of Madden. Nevertheless, Thomas is a sneaky good play this week. Jahan Dotson seems very unlikely to play on Sunday, and Thomas should be one of the main beneficiaries.

After running routes on only about 76% of his snaps Weeks 1-2, Thomas ran a route on over 94% each of the last two weeks. He was targeted six times against Dallas on Sunday, but pulled in just five balls for 19 yards. It’s easy to blame Carson Wentz, who is undoubtedly the man staring back at you when you Google “QBs who are terrible in real life but fantasy relevant”.

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I’m fairly certain that Ertz has been in this article every week so far this season. I can’t imagine that changing, regardless of matchup, until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Check out where our guy Zach ranks among TE since Week 2.

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

The opportunities are there, and the only reason he saw a SLIGHT dip last week was the fact that the Cardinals weren’t playing from behind for once. I’ll be betting that they’ll be playing from behind again this week against the 4-0 Eagles.

If you’re into this sort of thing, we can call this one a revenge game for Ertz. This will be his first time facing his former team. The matchup isn’t great of course, but the volume should be elite once again.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Last week we discussed two TE who were facing each other, and this week our featured matchup is Goedert vs Ertz. Dallas has 16 targets over his last three games, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cardinals. They rank 30th in the NFL against TE, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game.

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

FanDuel and DraftKings were quick to make Hockenson the most expensive TE on the main slate, but this is again a slate missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, as his game last week should see his ownership skyrocket.

However, this is actually a pretty good spot for Hock. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing TE (5), and the Lions lead the NFL with 35 PPG. To me, playing or not playing Hock in tournaments comes down to the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. If both are out, you’ll need shares of him. If just Sun God sits, he’s viable as well.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Here’s an idea. Let’s ignore last week’s debacle (one catch for 25 yards on four targets) and take advantage of some recency bias. The perfect time to target a player at low ownership is immediately after they disappoint. The DFS world is less than pleased with Pitts, and for good reason. But hear me out.

Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on the IR, and Atlanta doesn’t truly have much experience in the backfield. The offense will be relying on their young duo of Pitts and Drake London against the Bucs.

Pitts only played 62% of the snaps last week, but had his highest rate of routes run on the season (92.3%). The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs in a game with a total around 49. This is the perfect game script for Pitts and company to post some fantasy goodness. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to opposing TE this season. One time, Kyle. Let’s run it back.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

This Thursday Night we have a matchup of two teams who are off to sluggish offensive starts. The Colts are averaging the least PPG in the entire league this season (14.3) and the Broncos aren’t far behind at 30th (16.5). Denver is listed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total sitting around 42 points. Last week, the Broncos lost Javonte Williams to a season-ending ACL tear. There will be added opportunities for other members of this offense. Let’s see if either offense can finally get things going.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Captain/MVP Plays

UPDATE: With Jonathan Taylor officially OUT, Nyheim Hines becomes an elite play in all formats. Matt Ryan gets a slight bump in upside with some perceived additional responsibility. Free Deon Jackson! He is still a low-floor play, but I’m looking forward to locking him into some lineups here. That said, the player you need to just LOCK on DraftKings is Philip Lindsay. He was just elevated from the practice squad, and costs $600 on DraftKings. Yes, $600. He should see a few opportunities at least, and is now a free square.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($16,500 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

The top option in this one for your MVP spot is the reigning NFL rushing leader from 2021. Taylor blew everyone away last season (he beat runner-up Nick Chubb by 552 yards!), and he may just do the same here.

Josh Jacobs just got finishing going beast-mode on this Denver defense. With Denver on only four days rest following that beating, Taylor could be in for a monster performance. The only issue? Taylor has yet to practice this week and may be a true game-time decision. If the Colts feel comfortable enough for him to play on a short week, you need to prioritize him in your lineups.

Denver allowed nearly 200 total yards (168 rushing, 30 receiving) to the Raiders on Sunday. Taylor may not be putting up big numbers thus far in 2022, but his volume is second to none. He has at least 21 touches in each game aside from the shutout loss to the Jaguars. If Taylor is unable to go, I will immediately turn my attention to…

Nyheim Hines, Colts ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

Hines has never been a high-volume guy, and is known more as a pass-catcher. But he may just be the lock of the century if Taylor sits. Denver allowed nearly 200 total yards (168 rushing, 30 receiving) to the Raiders RBs on Sunday. He only has eight carries on the season, but has been targeted 19 times. He could play an Austin Ekeler-type role in this one as the lead back. I wouldn’t expect him to see Taylor-esque volume, but someone is going to run all over this defense. Next man up.

Melvin Gordon III, Broncos ($13,200 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

The unfortunate injury to Javonte Williams jumps Gordon into the feature back role in Denver. Offensive coordinator Justin Outten said it himself. The Colts have been very solid defensively, but are middle of the pack against the run (22 fantasy points per game). Gordon saw just three carries and one target last week, and fumbled for the fourth time on the season.

While Gordon may be assumed to be the lead in this backfield, Mike Boone ($6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) saw 36% of the snaps against the Raiders. Call me crazy here, but I actually prefer Boone here. I don’t truly believe that Hackett and the Broncos have full trust in Gordon. Mike Boone has one game in his career with more than 13 carries. He went for 17/148/1.

Of course, that was one game, it was in 2019 AND Boone has hardly seen the field since. He has 78 career carries and has never lost a fumble. Gordon has put the ball on the turf four times in just 45 touches this season. I believe his leash will be shorter than many people think here, and Boone could pace the backfield.

FLEX/AnyFlex Plays

Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($9,400 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

One of the games, Sutton is going to put all his opportunities and routes run together and break out. He has been one of the most consistent performers at the WR position this season, posting DraftKings totals of 11.2, 22.7, 17.7, and 16.2. He has run a route on over 90% of his snaps, has seen 35 targets, and has produced 16 first downs.

Despite the fact that the Broncos seem allergic to the Red Zone, Sutton has paced the team with six targets inside the 20. With Javonte Williams out, I do expect the Broncos to pass at a higher rate than their season average of just under 58%. Sutton is the lead man for Russell Wilson, and has a high ceiling in this one.

Russell Wilson, Broncos ($10,400 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

Have you ever seen the movie “Weird Science”? A couple of nerds built their version of the perfect woman using a computer. Well, if those same nerds decided to make the least-likable QB ever to play the game, they would make Russell Wilson. While Wilson may be annoying and cringy in everything he does, he can still play at an elite level.

Denver’s offense has been a disaster this season, scoring 16, 16, 11, and 23 points. Wilson hasn’t been at his best, but did find the end zone three times last week. As I mentioned above, I expect Denver to be more aggressive in the pass game Thursday Night. Wilson could be a difference-maker in this one, but his price is prohibitive. I’ll help you find some value.

Alec Pierce, Colts ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)

Of course Michael Pittman ($10,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel) is a great play, but I’m not going to just list all the priciest plays on the slate. Pierce has only played in three games this season, but has had a snap count of at least 44% in all three.

He has 7/141 on 11 targets over the last two weeks. Matt Ryan has been looking his way, and his price is hard to pass up. This game could have playoff implications down the line, and both teams know they need this one.

Others to consider

Brandon McManus ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) is always a solid option, especially at home. The Broncos have had a TON of trouble finishing drives. If that trend continues, McManus could be a busy man.

This is ONLY a play if Taylor sits out, but Deon Jackson ($1,600 DraftKings) could have value in a plus matchup for dirt cheap.

A cheap play with a low floor but decent upside is Jelani Woods ($2,200 DraftKings). He scored twice in Week 3, then followed that up with 4.3 points in Week 4 (one target, one catch). The targets haven’t been there, but he is being active. He ran 11 routes each of the last two weeks after running just 10 total in Weeks 1-2.

For a few dart throws, give a look to KJ Hamler ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel).

If I choose to go with a defense in my lineups, it has to be the Broncos. I know I was trashing them earlier, but Matt Ryan also has five interceptions already this season. Not a priority play, but one worth a look.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 5

Joe DiCarlo 3 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

With 4 weeks in the books, we are beginning to pick up some steam into the season. We didn’t have too many clear paths at quarterback last week, but we kept our heads above water for the most part. Trubisky was a land mine that some of us, including myself, stepped on. Goff was gold though, and if you took Geno Smith who was in my Game by Game breakdown last week you hit the jackpot. In our projection model, we crunch the numbers for you to give the most accurate production per player, use the tools! This week is pretty it looks like we are in the same boat for a quarterback and pretty straightforward. Tag me @jdicarlo78 or anyone else in the crew at WinDaily in our expert chat on Discord for any help…let’s keep the ball rolling and break down our Week 5 QBs!

Let’s check out our NFL Week 5 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel)

You can’t miss picking up Allen, set him in your lineup and forget it. He’s match-up proof this season already surpassing 1,200 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and 2 on the ground. Not only are we getting him a little cheaper this week, but he gets a Pittsburgh T J Watt-less defense that allowed Zach Wilson the dub with over 20 fantasy points. Allen is by far the safest QB with the highest floor in DFS this season.

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)

The Jags kept Hurts under wraps but Philly still came out on top at home in Week 4. Kudos to former head coach Doug Pederson, but we still saved face with a 2x value on Jalen. In Arizona this week we should see another stand-out performance as the Cards rank at the bottom in passing yards allowed (23rd) and total defense (25th). Hurts is second-most expensive on the slate but one of the safest in Week 5.

Tom Brady ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel)

I never thought I’d see the day that Jared Goff would be more expensive than the GOAT in DFS yet in Week 5, here we are. Brady’s (385 PAYRD/3 TD) didn’t make the cut against Kansas City on Sunday night. Last week’s tough loss sets the stage for him and the Bucs to blow the doors off the Falcons at a discounted salary. Atlanta’s defense is bottom of the barrel across the board (25th PaYd/game DVOA) allowing over 25 points a game (27th). Brady is a no-brainer in all formats with his weapons (Evans and Godwin) back at full strength.

Carson Wentz ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel)

Wentz had his worst game of the season floating a 9 burger against Dallas’ insane pass rush in Week 4. So he won’t be on anyone’s radar in DFS this Sunday hosting Tennessee. The Titans ooze fantasy value out of their pores to opposing quarterbacks, allowing over 300 yards and 8 touchdown passes over the last 3 games. Forget the horror show you witnessed in Dallas last week and get Carson in a GPP this weekend.

Teddy Bridgewater ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel)

No Tua, no problem for Miami. Coach Mike McDaniel’s system is plug-and-play for the quarterback position and Teddy B will have the best receiver core for his career this week in East Rutherford. The Dolphins’ 9 year veteran is no gunslinger but can easily manage this offense and get to 3X value of his salary. New York will not be able to keep receivers Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle from running circles around them (27th in points allowed) and Bridgewater will reap the rewards on the Week 5 stat sheet. A GPP Miami stack is smelling good this weekend.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 5. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Hit me up in our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 always here to help fellas…. Let’s get this money!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Monday Night Football brings us another rematch, this time from the 2021 NFC Championship game. The Rams and 49ers have no shortage of history, and San Fransisco will undoubtedly be looking for revenge in this one. Prior to losing the NFC Championship to the Rams (which they should have won), the 49ers had won six straight in this series. We got our hands full in this one. Let’s find an edge and make some cash!

MVP/Captain Plays

Cooper Kupp, Rams ($18,000 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

Listen, Kupp is VERY expensive on this showdown slate. However, there isn’t a player on either roster who can match his ceiling. In his last two games against San Fransisco, he has posted the following lines:

11/122 (13 targets)

7/118/1 (7 targets)

Last week, we saw Kupp post a pedestrian 4/44/0 line on six targets, but he did score on a 20-yard rush. In Weeks 1-2, Kupp was putting up McDonald’s numbers (I hope you get the Ludacris reference) with 34.8 and 35.8 DraftKings points, respectively. Simply put, Kupp is the safest play and also the highest upside play on MNF. The only player I see as potentially coming close is…

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($15,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

The San Fransisco offense goes as Deebo Samuel goes. He has a great rapport with Jimmy Garoppolo, and has had success in this matchup recently. In two games against the Rams last season, Samuel posted totals of 133 scrimmage yards with two scores, then 140 yards with one score in the NFC Championship game.

His usage out of the backfield and in the passing game is elite, and the 49ers will need every bit of his production in this one. Expect Samuel to be a favorite target for Jimmy G in this one yet again. He has 15, 10, and 13 touches in three games this season, and the potential for more is there. He is the focal point of the offense and that won’t be changing tonight or any time soon. Deebo is a near must-play for this slate.

Tyler Higbee, Rams ($7,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Kupp or Deebo will likely be my main options for this one, but I’ll throw some shots at Higbee in the bonus spot. He scored three touchdowns in his last two games against San Fransisco, and his usage this season is elite. Only Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz are averaging more targets per game than Higbee thus far in 2022.

The 49ers have allowed only five catches to opposing TE over three games this season, but that doesn’t scare me off of Higbee. The Rams are a pass-first offense, and Higbee is the clear #2 behind Kupp. The 49ers will be scheming to take away Kupp (good luck), and I see Higbee being the beneficiary of a few extra looks tonight.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Matt Stafford, Rams ($10,600 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

The Rams offense throws the ball over 63% of the time thus far in 2022, up almost 4% from last season. Stafford will have a tough matchup here, but the numbers for the 49ers defense are slightly skewed. They have faced Justin Fields in a monsoon, Geno Smith, and the ghost of Russell Wilson thus far. Stafford is far from a must-play here, but if you are making multiple lineups, he needs to be in your pool.

Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

I’m not a big fan of Jimmy G in general, and the Rams have been tough on him over the years. If you remove one game in 2020 where Jimmy had 268 yards and three scores…things get pretty ugly. He has a 6/7 TD/INT against the Rams in five other matchups. What does this have to do with Aiyuk? Well, I’m fading Jimmy. He just doesn’t have the upside I’m looking for in this matchup. Aiyuk has seen eight targets in back to back weeks, and is priced perfectly in the middle tier. I’ll take a shot here on a decent floor and some sneaky upside. The Rams have actually allowed the MOST fantasy points to opposing WR so far this season. I don’t expect that to be the case all season, but Jalen Ramsey looks as bad as Twitter mobs pretend Eli Apple is…

Robbie Gould and Matt Gay

If this game stays close (and Vegas is betting that it will), the kickers could play a major role. It looks like nearly perfect weather, and both kickers are cheap and reliable. I lean more toward Gould than Gay, as I see the Rams as more likely to finish drives than the 49ers.

Values

A few others to consider are Jauan Jennings ($2,000 DraftKings), who has seen 11 targets this season. I’m not huge on this offense here outside of the top guys, but he is worth a look as a punt play.

Kyle Juszcyk is always a threat to steal some goal-line work or grab a screen pass and bowl over some defenders. He is only $1,000 on DraftKings.

I won’t talk you out of George Kittle. His matchup is actually a good bit better than it was last season with Von Miller now in Buffalo. However, only Cleveland and Chicago have run the ball LESS than the 49ers, and there is only so much to go around. I would rather prioritize Kupp and Samuel.

One last value play here is Ben Skowronek. He is coming off a solid 4/66 game against Arizona, and could provide some sneaky value here.

While there is no chance I’m fading Cooper Kupp, the 49ers defense has massive upside if we see Matthew Stafford on a bad day. He actually has a 4/5 TD/INT so far in 2022, and the 49ers won’t miss this time like they did in the NFC Championship game. If things break well for the 49ers, the defense could be among the highest scorers on the slate. Don’t be afraid to throw a lineup or two with them in the bonus spot tonight. It could pay off big.

I’m not excited about any one player in the run game here. I’ll take my rushing upside in the form of Mr. Deebo Samuel.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 4 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

We have ourselves a rematch of Super Bowl LV, and if I were a betting man (you all know I am) I’d be betting that Mahomes and company put up more than NINE points in this one. Tampa Bay is currently listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 46. Let’s find some angles to cash in on Sunday Night Football!

Captain/MVP Plays

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City ($17,100 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Mahomes is VERY expensive for this slate, but his upside is second to none in this game. Kansas City loves to utilize shovel passes, screens, and everything in between near the goal line. Mahomes could have his hands on every touchdown the Chiefs score in this one.

He is coming off of two pedestrian games against the Chargers and Colts, and he is far from a must play at this price. If you’re playing MME, you absolutely will want exposure to his ceiling, but he is not a priority for me at the bonus spot. Tampa Bay has allowed the 3rd-least fantasy PPG to opposing QB in 2022. This is a difficult matchup to say the least. I don’t need to sell you on Mahomes.

Tom Brady ($15,000 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel) is certainly in play here, and makes sense as a discount option off of Mahomes in this one. He has just three touchdown passes this season, but you can’t simply ignore the GOAT on any slate. I won’t be prioritizing either one of them, but you need some exposure to both if you are doing multiple lineups.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay ($15,600 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Fournette is my favorite play at the bonus spot for this one, and it isn’t particularly close. Kansas City has allowed only 206 rushing yards to opposing RB this season. Not a ringing endorsement? How about this one. Only two teams have allowed more than the 170 receiving yards that KC has allowed to opposing backs.

Lenny has played on 76, 87, and 91 percent of snaps this season, but his targets have increased each week.Last week against Green Bay we have to take with a grain of salt, as Tampa Bay was just decimated with injuries to their WR. That said, Fournette is as reliable a back as there is in the NFL right now, and his workload is secure. He has seen 23,28, and 18 touches/targets this season. Fournette’s role is solid, and with question marks surrounding Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, AND Russell Gage (who saw 13 targets last week) Lenny could be in for a huge workload again.

Injuries will play an enormous part on this Showdown slate, with multiple key players listed as true game-time decisions. Keep a close eye on the injury news leading up to this one, I’ll be in Discord (link above) chatting along with the rest of the team!

That said, I’ll be listing the other plays I’m focusing on (Captain/MVP status is subject to change), but plenty could change here as we move closer to Sunday Night. Stay tuned!

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay ($9,400 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

If the trio of Godwin, Jones, and Gage are all OUT for this one, Evans needs to be an absolute LOCK in your lineups. He is viable across the board anyway, but if he sees volume even close to what Gage saw against Green Bay, his upside is enormous.

He only has eight catches (11 targets) for 132/1 on the young season, but he also sat out the Green Bay game with a suspension. Tom Brady and the Bucs have actually been below NFL average with a 58.6% pass rate on offense, down from 66%+ in 2021. Last week? That number was 76%, highest in the NFL.

In my opinion, Evans is the most talented WR on this roster (Godwin is the only one close, and I’m betting he sits). Pairing the GOAT Tom Brady with a guy like Evans could pay off big in this one. Get yourself some shares, ESPECIALLY if any of the aforementioned WR sit this one out. Evans is 5th in YPRR (yards per route run), per PFF.

Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($10,800 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

I want some exposure to the Kansas City passing attack, but the matchup is brutal. The same isn’t true for Kelce. PFF has his matchup against primary defender Devin White listed as the second-best in Week 4 among TE. Kelce is averaging eight targets per game this season, and I’m expecting a monster performance. Mahomes is going to need to take advantage of the best matchup on the field. The likes of Juju Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Marques Valdes-Scantling could have some tough sledding here. Fire up Kelce, regardless of his price tag.

Others to Consider

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

Listen, it’s well-documented that I’m not a fan of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is just a decent runner, and most of his value is in red zone shovel passes and looks in the passing game. His stat line from last week was WILD. He had seven carries for ZERO yards, but caught five of five targets for 39 yards. He scored a touchdown despite his zero-yard performance.

In a matchup against a Bucs team that is allowing the lowest fantasy points per game to opposing RB, I want no part of CEH. McKinnon has actually out-snapped CEH each of the last two weeks. He only has a total of 15 carries this season and seven targets. That said, I want pieces of Evans and Kelce in this one, so we have to save money somewhere. McKinnon has a low floor, but his speed alone gives him upside. He is a viable punt option.

Tampa Bay Defense, ($3,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)

I said I want Kelce, and we need to consider exposure to Mahomes, regardless of matchup. That said, the Tampa Bay defense looks like an elite option for this slate. Kansas City has scored just 22 PPG over their last two matchups, and Tampa has allowed 3, 10, and 14 points in their first three games. Mahomes has shown a tendency to make mistakes over his last few games, and he will be under constant pressure in this one. I don’t see much chance of this one being a shootout, so the Tampa defense will make it into most, if not all of my lineups.

Kickers!

Harrison Butker is currently a game-time call for this one, but Ryan Succop is ready to go. If Butker can’t go, Matthew Wright seems to be the next man up. I think this game stays well under the total, so I want exposure to both sides of the kicking game. Fortunately for both teams, Hurricane Ian has spared this game, and the weather report at this time is pretty clear. Keep an eye on it just in case things get dicey.

Punt plays in this one include Jaelon Darden ($1,000 DraftKings). The injuries to the Tampa receiving core is well-documented by now, and Breshad Perriman is also doubtful. Darden has a true floor of zero, but could grab some snaps if the options are thin once again. He put up a 1/25 line last week. Rachaad White ($600 DraftKings) saw only six snaps last week, but we are looking for dart-throw upside, and White has it. If Fournette goes down for any reason, White could see some work. Plug and play sparingly to jam in some studs if you are going to be doing MME.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 4 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NOTE: Keep an eye on the weather forecasts. The majority of this article is built around Buffalo/Baltimore. There is a chance of higher winds and potential rain due to the Hurricane. I’ll do my best to update the article as we learn more, but be sure to tune into the livestream on Sunday morning for final updates.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

With Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson all on the main slate, I’m going to focus on lineups with significant upside (like any other GPP lineup) as we really need to ensure our lineups can compete with a Baltimore/Buffalo shootout. Personally, those three would be my first three clicks (and likely yours) in any format of DFS this weekend. There’s absolutely no shame in that at all, just ensure you get different elsewhere. Here is where I’ll be looking outside of the trio above:

Justin Herbert ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD)

With all the weather concerns and totals dropping in the more appealing games, the AETY Model is really pushing the value of for this Chargers passing attack and pace of play. Herbert is apparently healthy and still throwing the ball 40+ times a game. The Houston defense has been solid to start the season (ranking 7th in pass defense DVOA) but they have yet to play a competent air attack like they get this weekend with the Chargers. At 5% ownership, Justin Herbert certainly is worth rostering with the hopes his ceiling can match or surpass the Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts of the world.

Stacking Options: Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Austin Ekeler
Run-Back Options: Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce

Mitch Trubisky ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD)

It’s absolutely gross, but the AETY Model ranks Trubisky as the number one value quarterback on the slate and it’s hard to disagree at this price-tag. The Jets rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and are having quite a difficult time generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It’s not a sexy game by any means, but the line movements are trending in favor of the over and we very well may get a low-key, nasty shootout on a slate where there really isn’t much outside of Buffalo/Baltimore.

The thing I like about using Trubisky is what it opens up for the rest of your roster and this is the nut-leverage spot on the board using a QB against the one of the top projected defenses, in terms of ownership. If you’re using Trubisky, make sure you load up with the exposures you need to keep up with those using Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. There is really no need to double stack with Trubisky in NFL DFS GPP lineups as his ownership is already low enough.

Stacking Options: Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, Chase Claypool
Run-Back Options: Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall

Russell Wilson ($6,700 DK / $7,100 FD)

Yes, I know what you’re thinking… “How the hell can we even think about rostering Russell Wilson or anyone in this Denver passing attack?”. I get it, it’s scary as hell to want to invest in a buy-low opportunity with this offense, but a GPP should never feel comfortable. The Raiders’ defense is terrible and underperforming in all aspects of the game and they come into this matchup rather banged up across the secondary. The total in this game seems to continuously rise despite the majority of the public laying the under.

With weather concerns throughout the east cost and an absolutely ugly slate outside of BUF/BAL in general, I’m going to bite the bullet and trust the AETY Model that this is a prime get-right spot for Wilson and the Broncos in a dome.

Stacking Options: Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Davante Adams

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Nick Chubb ($7,900 DK / $9,200 FD)

Nick Chubb has been one of the few “top-tier” fantasy running backs that hasn’t been a disappointment to start the 2022 NFL season and he splits time! We loved this matchup against Atlanta (27th in run defense DVOA) last week with Rashaad Penny, now I’m sure you can imagine how much I love Chubb (outside of his price) in that very same matchup. The Cleveland Browns’ sole focus is to run the football and run the clock out behind this top-5 offensive line. If you can find a way to afford a 5% owned, Nick Chubb, you’re in a great spot to be different in your GPP lineups as the field pays down at running back once again this week.

Javonte Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

As long as Javonte Williams is floating around that 10% ownership mark, I’ll simply be pushing all-in on him this week. I wrote more on my appeal for Javonte Williams in the cash game article but let the double mention show you how much I love Williams in Week 4 NFL DFS lineups as a whole. Melvin Gordon is banged up with a neck injury and this is a prime spot on a shorter week for Denver to ride their young superstar.

Devin Singletary ($5,900 DK / $6,200 FD)

Hopefully you tuned into the livestream last week when Jason and I discussed the potential leverage that Devin Singletary possessed on the Sunday main slate. That call absolutely paid off as most of the Buffalo chalk died a slow death in all formats while Devin Singletary smashed the running back slate at a cheap price. The same situation arises this week. Everyone in the world is going to play Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs (for good reason), but if you get on the right side of variance, Devin Singletary is setup for another 3x NFL DFS GPP week at sub-5% ownership.

This game is going to shootout and rostering the lead back with a 65% or higher snap share over the past two weeks is an excellent way to get affordable exposure. Hell, just stack this game up (weather permitting)!

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Najee Harris, Rashaad Penny

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)

I don’t care what the price or ownership is, Stefon Diggs is the best wide receiver play on this slate and I’ll get as much exposure to him as I can. This Ravens’ secondary is bleeding production to any competent pass catcher, let alone a route-running star like Stefon Diggs. Get exposure to this game!

Davante Adams ($8,300 DK / $7,900 FD)

The price on FanDuel is criminal, but so is the ownership. Davante Adams under 10% owned is always significant GPP leverage, especially when he’s back home in the dome. Adams is the only player I’m interested in on the Raiders side of things in NFL DFS GPP lineups, especially in my Broncos stacks. While 30% of the field plays Josh Jacobs, pivot to the true fantasy stud on this team in Davante Adams.

Mike Williams ($7,000 DK / $7,200 FD)

Not many have the pure upside like Mike Williams possesses on a given week and not many of the size advantage to pair with it. Mike Williams has ~5 inches of an advantage on both Derek Stingley Jr. and Steven Nelson on the outside of this Houston defense and that is always something I’ll keep in mind when looking for upside wide receivers in a NFL DFS GPP lineup. If you can’t afford Mike Williams, Josh Palmer is in a great spot as well at a significant discount while Keenan Allen is OUT.

Courtland Sutton ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

Excellent price for the WR1 in one of my core stacks going up against a bad pass defense and banged up corners. Sutton has a significant size advantage across the board here (Nate Hobbs also moved outside in coverage) and has been peppered with targets and deep balls from Russell Wilson. If I’m banking on a Wilson comeback, I’m banking on the connection with Sutton to finally hit pay-dirt. Sutton is 4th in the NFL in Air Yards, which doesn’t equate to fantasy points, but it certainly can hint at a potential breakout. The big game is coming and I’ll put my chips on the table that this is the week.

Rashod Bateman ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Getting the point yet, lol? Getting affordable exposure or even a game stack of Buffalo/Baltimore game is the focus of my week. Bateman is never going to be a guy that gets it done with volume, but the Bills will play a good bit of man and I’m betting on Rashod Bateman absolutely cooking Dane Jackson for a deep ball or two throughout this shootout.

George Pickens ($3,800 DK / $5,100 FD)

Had to add some value to the article so we’ll go with the recent squeaky wheel in hopes he gets the grease. Pickens has made his frustrations with not getting the football well known… I believe the quote was “99% of the time, I’m open”. Like Bateman, Pickens will not get there by volume, but the big play ability is certainly well within reach. At this low of a price-tag, I’ll take the risk.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore, Allen Lazard

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Please review the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for my thoughts on the tight-end position. In addition, here is another player I’ll be looking at:

Robert Tonyan ($3,500 DK / $4,900 FD)

It appears the majority of the NFL DFS GPP community is going to pay down at tight-end and push the ownership towards the likes of Evan Engram and Pat Freiermuth (I do like Pat a bit), I’ll take the savings of the progressing Robert Tonyan. New England grades 25th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight-ends and we continue to see the snap share and target share for Tonyan to raise as he gets back to full strength. Call me crazy, but I’d rather play someone on the receiving end of Aaron Rodgers if I’m punting the tight-end position, but ONLY if you need to punt at tight-end.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 3-0! It’s always great to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 4! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate. Don’t miss on QB!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Same situation as last week the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. There are very few QBs on this slate who fit that narrative.

Josh Allen ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)

Do not overthink this one. Josh Allen is the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. The game total is currently sitting at 51 points (AETY likes the OVER) and the matchup against Baltimore’s secondary has AETY projecting the Allen and the Bills to surpass 300 yards passing. This game is going to go back and forth and you’re going to want a piece or two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.

Lamar Jackson ($8,300 DK / $8,800 FD)

He’s 100% superstar, half quarterback, half running back… he’s Lamar Jackson. If I’m not going with Josh Allen, I’ll be rostering Lamar Jackson. Simple as that. I need exposure to this game and I want the two most sure things at the QB position to start my cash game lineup.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Javonte Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

The highest I’m likely to go this week at the running back position in NFL DFS cash games is Javonte Williams. Williams is the clear lead-back in this offense in both terms of rushing attempts, targets, and routes ran. The only advantage Melvin Gordon currently has is red-zone carries and I’m quite confident those will start to go in favor of Javonte Williams in the very near future.

We’re getting one of the best pure running backs in football at a significant discount in a matchup against a banged up Raiders’ defense who are third in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed and 29th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. Javonte Williams will eat.

Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Take the freesquare and ride the ownership wave of Jamaal Williams in your cash lineups now that Swift is out. I’m fine with a GPP fade, but in cash, you’re likely playing Jamaal Williams.

Khalil Herbert ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

A bit pricey on FanDuel, but assuming David Montgomery is OUT, it will be wheels up for a massive Khalil Herbert workload against the 28th ranked run defense (DVOA) in the New York Giants.

Josh Jacobs ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Apparently, Josh Jacobs is going to be just as highly owned as Jamaal Williams this weekend so I’m 100% okay if you want to ride the chalk and use Josh Jacobs, but I really respect this Denver defense as a whole. At these prices, it’s hard to not lock in Jacobs in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. I’ll certainly look elsewhere in NFL DFS GPP builds.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

I was planning on keeping Penny to the GPP article, but with the way I’m building my cash game lineup (heavy BAL/BUF), I really need any savings that I can find. Despite Kenneth Walker’s activation, Penny has 20 carries to Walker’s 4. This RB1 job is Rashaad Penny’s until further notice and at this price, I’m all about it.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, James Conner, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)

If you’re playing Josh Allen, you’re already getting exposure to Stefon Diggs in your cash game lineups. If you’re going with Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs on the other side of that game is a must-play in cash. I’ve spoken enough about this game to go into further detail.

Drake London ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

Drake London is becoming an immediate impact, rookie wide receiver in the NFL as he paces the Falcons’ pass catchers with a damn-near 33% target share. The Browns secondary is okay (21st in pass defense DVOA) but they’re going to play a lot of zone defense. Against zone coverage, Drake London has out targeted all Falcon wide receivers by over three times the amount of the next guy (Olamide Zaccheaus). London is a pure WR1 priced like an upper-tier WR2.

Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)

Damn-near the exact same situation as London (opportunity and cost-wise) just with a significant worse quarterback. Against the Jets and their 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA), I like the odds of Diontae Johnson really coming alive here for fantasy players who were expecting much more production out of the Steelers star wide receiver. I do have a bit of pace concerns (41.5 point total), but if these two dumpster fire offenses can go back and forth against arguably worse defenses, Diontae Johnson will be a perfect fit to our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Brandin Cooks ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

Getting the theme of the wide receiver position this week? Underpriced WR1s. The AETY Model is expecting the Chargers to come out firing and force HOU into a pass-heavy offense and that simply bodes extremely well for Brandin Cooks. As long as J.C. Jackson is still banged up (better if he’s out… UPDATE: JC is IN), Brandin Cooks should walk backwards into the 2.5x floor we’re looking for in cash game lineups.

DJ Moore ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

The Panthers’ offense has been dreadful to start the year, but the Arizona Cardinals pass defense (29th in DVOA) is something we’ve been picking on every single week in 2022. We will not stop doing that now as DJ Moore will see a lot of Marco Wilson in man-coverage on Sunday afternoon. That is a recipe for fantasy and real-life success. DJ Moore has twice as many targets than any other player on the Panthers when facing man-coverage. It will likely be DJ Moore or Josh Palmer for my WR2 spot in cash.

Viable “Punt-Play” Salary Savers:

Again, with my love for the upper-tier studs this week, I’ll likely need some salary relief at the wide receiver position. Here’s who fits that mold and is AETY Model approved…

Elijah Moore ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Richie James ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
George Pickens ($3,800 DK / $5,100 FD)

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb (weekly St. Juste matchup), AJ Brown, Josh Palmer

Update: Ownership trending heavily towards CeeDee Lamb. I’m likely going to lock him in to play the chalk game with a clear WR1 with double-digit targets in every game this season, not to mention the weekly St. Juste spot.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

I’ll be locking in Mark Andrews in my cash game lineup, no way around it. He’s the clear TE1 on this slate and the AETY Model has him outscoring the next tight-end by over 5 points. As the field likely pays down at tight-end, I’ll be playing Mark Andrews and find my salary relief elsewhere. If you’re playing Lamar Jackson (we won’t stack in cash games), here is who I would consider:

Kyle Pitts ($5,000 DK / $6,100 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD)

*UPDATE: With the new weather concerns in BUF/BAL, I’m fine if you need to pay down at tight-end but lets stick to one of the above.

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
Khalil Herbert
Javonte Williams
CeeDee Lamb
Richie James Jr. (gross)

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 4 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We hit on some of the better RB’s in Week 3 as we identified 4 of the overall top 10 runners. Our best plays were Derek Henry, James Robinson and Dameon Peirce. But we continue to see value RB’s take the top of the leaderboard as Herbert, Patterson Jamal Williams, Devin Singletary and Rhamondre Stevenson all scored over 20 points while being under $6K on Draftkings. That will eventually change but it is something we are keeping an eye on and trying to see trends.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

As for my strategy this week, I will look to roster a Tier 1 RB in about 80% of my rosters this week. I will use combinations of Tier 2 and Tier 3 RB’s in around 20% of my lineups. I think we’re going to see a big week, similar to Week 1, out of some of the higher priced RB’s this week.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JONATHAN TAYLOR $8800 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

The Matt Ryan effect seems to be hampering Jonathan Taylor’s production. The fact that Ryan is immobile and lacks arm strength (at this age), teams are able to pack the box. Since the opening week, when he faced a horrific run defense in Houston, Taylor has just 125 yards on 30 carries and is averaging only 9.7 DK points per game. This week he gets to see a familiar foe in the Tennessee Titans. Last year he faced the Titans twice and had 26 carries and 134 yards and 1 TD.

However, Tennessee is 29th in yards allowed rushing this season at 145 yards per game. They’ve also allowed the 23rd most points to RB’s including Saquon’s big game in week 1. This might be the lowest salary we see for Taylor all year and I’m willing to spend up this week on someone who is guaranteed 20+ touches and facing a bottom of the league rushing defense.

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $8700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

CMac has been held out of practice the last two days because of a thigh injury. This is likely something that we’ll just have to deal with every week when assessing McCaffrey. However, if healthy this looks like a very promising spot for the Panthers RB as he faces the Cardinals who are 31st in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals also play with pace s they are 2nd in the NFL with 74 plays per game. Contrast that and we have the Panthers at 31st in the league at 54.3 plays per game. Most of that has been their opponents as well as their own inefficiencies. But I see that changing this week because of the weak Cardinals defense and their desire to play fast. Add in the fact that McCaffrey has played 84% of Carolina’s snaps this year and you have a potential smash play.

AUSTIN EKELER $7700 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

Is it finally a week for the Chargers running game to show up? They face the Houston Texans who have allowed a league leading 202.3 yards per game on the ground. Houston is coming off a week 3 performance where they allowed 237 yards rushing to the Bears. With Herbert dealing with rib cartilage issues, the Chargers should be focused on the ground game which gives Ekeler an added boost.

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8100 FanDuel

Barkley is about the only interesting part of the Giants as he has ripped off at least one explosive play in each game so far. The Giants failed to get in the redzone on MNF versus the Cowboys but Barkley still thrived with 126 total yards and a touchdown. This week he faces the Bears who are 22nd in defensive rushing DVOA and 31st in rushing yards allowed with 157 yards/game. Feed the beast and let’s watch Barkley put up another productive game.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NAJEE HARRIS $6700 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Najee Harris is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this year. But he’s added 10 receptions and 2 TD’s which has helped add value to his game. The good news for Harris this week is that he plays the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA in the New York Jets. While the Jets have been decent against the run this year that is mainly because teams have carved them up through the air. I believe Harris will be able to be effective in the run game and see 5+ targets making him a very good play this week.

JAMES ROBINSON $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

The Jags RB put up a huge game last week by rushing for over 100 yards and scoring a TD for the third straight week. The Eagles are 25th in rushing defense DVOA and 17th in yards allowed on the ground. After seeing the Eagles sack Carson Wentz 9 times last week, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson will look to be more balanced and keep the defensive line from pinning their ears back. Robinson should be a factor again this week and has solid value versus and Eagles team that has been susceptible to the run so far this season. He is a much better play on DK and a fringe play on FanDuel due to his salary.

JAMAL WILLIAMS $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

De’Andre Swift is trending towards being ruled out this week. If that happens, Williams will be an auto play for most and will see ownership in the 30% range. But that’s fine as he does have a great matchup versus the Seahawks who are tied for 31st in rushing yards allowed this season. Seattle allowed 179 rushing yards to Atlanta last week including 141 to Cordarrelle Patterson. Williams is in a prime position to put up a similar effort especially if he becomes the primary ball carrier this week.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

AJ DILLON $6000 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

AJ Dillon shares the backfield duties with Aaron Jones. But it’s close to a 50/50 split as their snap percentage and touches are:

Aaron Jones: 60.7% snap count / 32 carries / 8 receptions
AJ Dillon: 54% snap count / 40 carries / 8 receptions

I see a situation that is evenly split if not more weighted to Dillon. This week the Packers face the Patriots who are 29th in rushing defense DVOA. New England is coming off a game where they allowed 188 yards on the ground to Baltimore. And with this being the largest spread on the board this week, there is potential for it to be a ground game for the Packers in the 2nd half. So I’ll take the $1500 discount that Dillon has to Jones as I think this will be a breakout week for the 3rd year back out of Boston College.

DAMEON PIERCE $5600 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

The Texans rookie RB has seen his carries increase gradually each week as he hit a season high with 20 carries last week against Chicago. He has taken over the workload for Houston and is the clear bell cow for the Texans. This week Pierce faces the Chargers who just allowed over 100 yards on the ground to James Robinson. I think Pierce will continue to produce and have another big week against the Chargers. This is a great value spot to pay less than $6000 for an RB that is expected to get 20+ touches.

BONUS PICKS

I do like KHALIL HERBERT ($5700 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) against the Giants if David Montgomery is ruled out. Herbert had a great game last week once Montgomery went down as he ran for a career high 157 yards against the Texans. The Giants have the 28th ranked rushing defense according to DVOA which provides added value to Herbert if he is the primary ball carrier this week.

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.

Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 4 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JONATHAN TAYLOR $8800 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY $8700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

AUSTIN EKELER $7700 DraftKings $8400 FanDuel

SAQUON BARKLEY $8000 DraftKings $8100 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NAJEE HARRIS $6700 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

JAMES ROBINSON $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

JAMAL WILLIAMS $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

AJ DILLON $6000 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

AJ Dillon shares the backfield duties with Aaron Jones. But it’s close to a 50/50 split as their snap percentage and touches are:

Aaron Jones: 60.7% snap count / 32 carries / 8 receptions
AJ Dillon: 54% snap count / 40 carries / 8 receptions

DAMEON PIERCE $5600 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

For those of you who know me, you know I’m a Cincinnati Kid. I’ve grown up and lived in Ohio my whole life (minus a 2-year hiatus in California). Needless to say, my hometown team isn’t off to a very good start at 1-2. Miami comes into PayCor Stadium as a 4-point underdog on Thursday Night. This is going to be another fun one. Both teams are coming off of wins, with Miami holding off Buffalo in dramatic fashion to remain undefeated. Of course I want my Bengals to win, but ultimately my goal is to make money for you and for me on TNF. Let’s get right to it.

Captain/MVP Plays

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($14,400 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

Burrow is the highest-priced player on FanDuel, but is just the 4th-most expensive on DraftKings. Either way, he is a solid option across the board. Despite a disastrous first game against Pittsburgh (FIVE turnovers), Burrow has been a solid fantasy option.

The Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL through three weeks, allowing nearly 26 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. The Bengals are in near must-win territory, even in Week 4, and Burrow will be slinging it. He has 53, 36, and 36 pass attempts the first three weeks, and the Bengals will need all they can get from him in this one.

The running game for Cincinnati (more on that later) has been poor to say the least. I expect Burrow to approach 40 pass attempts again in this one, and has enormous upside. The Bengals still have the best receiving core in the NFL, and Miami is one of the only teams who are close.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins ($15,300 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Waddle is my preferred option over Tyreek Hill in this one. I always talk about taking a stand on showdown slates, and this is it for me on Thursday Night. Jaylen has been a target machine for Tua, and leads the team with 30 on the young season. Granted, 19 of those were in one game, but Waddle is the play here for me for several reasons.

The Bengals have elite safety play up top, and rarely give up big, chunk plays down the field. Waddle is a fantastic route runner, and will see plenty of looks in the short-medium passing game. This one has all the makings of a shootout, and Waddle will undoubtedly be a big part of that.

If you’re playing MME, of course you want exposure to Tyreek (although Eli Apple is his daddy). I’m more of a 1-3 lineup guy, and I’m leaning toward a fade in my lineups barring some late-breaking injury news.

JaMarr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($16,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

JaMarr has the opposite salary situation as Burrow this week, as he comes in as the most expensive on DraftKings, but just the 4th-most expensive salary on FanDuel. Only Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson have had more red zone targets than Chase (8). Even better? He has the highest snap percentage among all WR in 2022 at 95%. JaMarr WILL be on the field on nearly every play. His ceiling is easily the highest among all WR/RB/TE on this slate.

If you have watched Chase play at all over the last season plus, you don’t need to hear more. He is an elite athlete, has years of rapport with Burrow dating back to LSU, and is one of the fastest players in the game. He would be the craziest fade on this slate for me.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Options

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,200 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel

This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows me, but Tee is my dude. The guy has the strength and athleticism to be an elite player at the position, and he continues to show it. Last week, that toe tap was a thing of beauty (it was a TD, by the way), and his timing on catch point is second to none.

He has 11/164/1 in his last two games, and that isn’t including missing some time last week after taking a dirty shot to the head courtesy of Lamarcus Joyner. Tee is elite, and if this one becomes a shootout, you will need shares. He could certainly be used in the Captain spot, especially on DraftKings, where the salary opens up quite a bit due to his cheap tag.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Mostert is one of my favorite plays on this showdown slate. I am a huge proponent of process over results, and this is the perfect time to take advantage. Last week, Chase Edmonds rushed six times for 21 yards…and two touchdowns. Mostert still outsnapped Edmonds for the second straight week, and positive regression is coming.

DJ Reader may just be the best run-stopper in the NFL, and the Bengals just announced his lengthy absence. I believe Mostert is a significantly better runner than Edmonds, and this Bengals defense is suddenly vulnerable against the run. Mostert is significantly cheaper than Edmonds on both sites, and I’ll be taking full advantage. Tua Tagovailoa may not be 100% for this one, and there is an outside shot that he sits completely. Miami will look to establish the run and take advantage of Reader’s absence.

Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

Envision with me a scenario where the Bengals struggle to finish drives, the Miami defense plays well, and “Money Mac” takes full advantage. This is certainly a possible outcome here, but regardless of game flow, McPherson has legit 60+ range. He absolutely needs to be in most of your lineups for TNF. I may just click the “LOCK” button on Evan.

Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

This is a low-floor option, as Gesicki has seen 1,4, and 1 target over the first three games of 2022. However, the Bengals have given up the 4th-most yardage to opposing TE in 2022.

Samaje Perine ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Perine is clearly the backup to Joe Mixon, but on a short week, I’m expecting the Bengals to utilize Perine a bit more here. He saw a lot of late work against the Jets, Mixon is less than 100%, and has eight targets already this season. I hate his price tag, but his ownership should be very low.

I’m certainly not fading Tua here, but am also waiting for some news on his injury status. As mentioned above, he is less than 100%, and there is an outside shot he could sit. Teddy Bridgewater absolutely needs to be considered if things don’t go well for Tua and he draws the start.

You know who has scored in two straight games? River Cracraft. He has a literal floor of zero, but the TD potential is there, and he is just $2,400 on DraftKings. One last punt play for you here is Chris Evans ($1,000 DraftKings). I mentioned that I think the Bengals try to ease a workload on Mixon (who is a fade for me here), and Evans could see some work. He absolutely SHOULD, so let’s see if Zac Taylor does the right thing.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

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