NASCAR

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Ambetter 301 from Loudon, New Hampshire. Let me just start with this, you typically have to play the two sites (DK and FD) differently but in races like Sunday, you really need to pay attention to the scoring. On DraftKings, there are 210.7 dominator points available as opposed to just 30.1 on FanDuel. FanDuel gives you points for completing laps so you want to build around drivers who should finish on the lead lap.

Over the last three races at Loudon, 2021 was the only race where the laps led were spread out. In 2019 and 2020 two drivers in each race led the majority of the laps. In 2019, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin combined to lead 76.9% of laps, and in 2020 Hamlin and Brad Keselowski led an amazing 91.7% of the laps in that race. New Hamshire is a difficult track to pass on, so that is why we don’t see too many drivers leading laps in each race.

I want to build my lineups with at least 2 potential dominators on Sunday, three if I can fit them and it MAKES SENSE. There are a few drivers who could lead a large number of laps who offer place differential points so those drivers should be the third in your lineups. Stacking three drivers in the top 5-8 starting positions could really come back to hurt you. Luckily a few potential dominators had horrible qualifying laps which makes them viable as a third dominator.

Roster Construction:

As I mentioned above, dominators will be key in DK builds and you should start with 2 drivers who can lead laps. After that, there are some great mid-tier options that give you huge place differential upside. If you think you can comfortably fit three top-tier drivers in then do that, if not build balanced lineups with a 2-2-2 or 2-3-1 depending on the salary you have left.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier – Dominators

Kyle Busch ($11,000) – [Proj. Ownership: 34%]

Starting Position: 17th

Busch was arguably the fastest car in practice and just didn’t have a good qualifying lap so he will start in the middle of the pack. I have zero worries about this car and this play as Busch has been great at New Hampshire in his career and his practice numbers. Kyle is one of those drivers who I think can lead laps, and a lot of them, but be that third dominator in your builds because of his place differential upside. Even if Busch doesn’t lead 75+ laps he should be a top 5 or top 3 car and make value. In Saturday’s practice session, Busch was second fastest in single lap and 5-lap average but he was atop the charts in 10, 15, and 20-lap average. Busch is my favorite play and I will be overweight on him regardless of ownership projections.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,400) – [Proj. Ownership: 24%]

Starting Position: 1st

Truex is starting on the pole and he should be difficult to pass for the lead, at least before the first set of pit stops. In Saturday’s practice session, Truex did not show incredible speed, but he did say that he thought his car was close and it showed in qualifying. I am going to assume that the team made an adjustment before qualifying because the #19 was just barely a top 10 car, but in qualifying, they put up two of the three fastest laps. Truex is a potential winner on Sunday, but a top 5 with dominator points will do just fine for me.

Other Potential Dominators starting near the front:

• Chase Elliott ($10,300 – P2): Nobody in the sport is hotter than Elliott and it’s hard to doubt he will run well here. Elliott really likes his car in practice and in qualifying. Loudon is not one of Elliott’s best tracks, but he showed some good speed on Saturday and I will be taking some risk with the 9 car.
• William Byron ($9,400 – P6): Byron was fastest in single-lap speed and 5-lap average while being third best in 10-lap speeds. On Saturday, Byron got some seat time in the 88 car for JRM in the Xfinity Series and was running great until his engine blew up.

Ryan Blaney ($10,000) – [Proj. Ownership: 29%]

Starting Position: 11th

I already mentioned Blaney in Discord as a great play earlier this week and I have not changed my stance on him after P&Q. Not only has Blaney been great on this track type in 2022, but at New Hampshire Blaney has four finishes between 4th and 9th in his last five races here. But looking back at his 2022 stats on this track type nobody has been better, even though Blaney has yet to win a race. Blaney has the best overall speed ranking, has the best average finish (5th), and has led 283 laps along with 113 fastest laps. Blaney has some dominator potential on Sunday based on how much he has dominated this track type so far this season and I think his winless streak ends on Sunday as well.

Denny Hamlin ($10,600) – [Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 14th

Hamlin was not pleased with his car early in practice and after running in the high 20’s the team made an adjustment and Hamlin then proceeded to put up the 8th best lap. Hamlin is a three-time winner here at New Hampshire and should be an outside threat to win his third race this season on Sunday. If Hamlin can avoid the wrecking machine that is Ross Chastain, I don’t see a reason why Hamlin can’t be in contention for the win but he should be a top 8 car on Sunday no matter.

Other Options: Kyle Larson ($9,600 – P8) – SImilar to Elliott, hard to doubt the upside of Larson, especially at this salary. Ross Chastain ($9,800 – P18) – Chastain has great PD upside, but I don’t believe he has dominator potential. Christopher Bell ($9,100 – P5) – Bell has been dominant in every level of competition at this track and there is an outside chance he gets to victory lane on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Kevin Harvick ($8,800) – [Proj. Ownership: 18%]

Starting Position: 10th

Harvick is one of two drivers in this tier who has dominator upside, albeit low. New Hampshire has historically been one of Harvick’s best tracks including four wins here. Since the fall of 2016 race here, Harvick has won three times and has finished 6th or better seven times in eight races. In Saturday’s practice, Harvick top 10 in all speed categories.

Place Differential Plays:

With Harvick being the best option for potential dominator points I figured it would just make sense to rank the PD plays in this tier for you

• Chase Briscoe ($8,400 – P29) [PO% – 34%]: Briscoe was 3rd fastest in single-lap speed and 5-lap average and he was 2nd fastest in 10-lap average. Earlier this season, Briscoe won at Phoenix, he then finished 11th at Richmond, and last he was running great at Gateway (won the pole and led 27 laps) but then had a tire go down and ended up 24th.
• Austin Cindric ($7,600 – P28) [PO% – 27%]: Cindric has been quietly one of the best DFS plays over the last 5 races. In that time, Cindric has four top 10’s, has an average of +5.6 PD, and is averaging the 3rd most DKFP per race.
• Alex Bowman ($7,800 – P27) [PO% – 25%]: Bowman did not have amazing speed in practice but if he can be incident free on Sunday a top 15 is definitely in the cards. We know this team will speak with teammates about their speed and make adjustments during the race to find the speed they need.
• Erik Jones ($7,300 – P22) [PO% – 22%]: Jones showed some real speed in practice on Saturday with the 6th best 5-lap average. Of the PD plays in this tier, Jones should be the lowest owned and is a good GPP play in my eyes.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,200 – P3), Aric Almirola ($8,100 – P7), Bubba Wallace ($7,400 – P4), Daniel Suarez ($7,900 – P19)

Value Tier ($6.9K and under)

1. Chris Buescher ($6,100 – P16) – Buescher is a top 10 car in my eyes. He has been good at this track type in 2022 with a 10th at Phoenix and 15th at Richmond (He missed Gateway with COVID).
2. Austin Dillon ($6,300 – P30) – Dillon is going to be the chalky play in this tier on Sunday and is a lock for cash games. I can understand a fade in GPP’s, especially for a driver in this tier popping at 40% ownership. Dillon ran well at all three short flat tracks in 2022 so it can be expected he will be in the top 15 at day’s end.
3. Justin Haley ($5,900 – P25) – Haley is the pivot off Austin Dillon chalk in my opinion. Haley was faster than Dillon in practice and will come in at substantially lower ownership (over 20% less).
4. Ty Dillon ($5,400 – P35) – Ty Dillon had top 20 speed in practice but just had nothing in qualifying. Hopefully, he can run where he practiced and be a great PD play. Surprisingly, Dillon isn’t projecting at high ownership (>20%) so he could also be a pivot off big brother Austin.
5. Harrison Burton ($5,200 – P31) – Burton is at best a high teens driver on Sunday. Unless attrition is high in this race I don’t think Burton lives up to his practice speeds (13th 5-lap, 6th 10-lap, and 15-lap). Burton is a pretty safe play in my opinion for both GPP and in cash as well.
6. Corey Lajoie ($5,600 – P21) – Lajoie is super risky but we know this team has been good most weeks in 2022. While he hasn’t faired well at this track type, a top 20 would be a great DFS day for Lajoie.

Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Quaker State 400 from Atlanta Motor Speedway! Atlanta was reconfigured and repaved before the 2022 season and this will be the series’ second race here this year and the first time the NextGen car has been back to a track. Based on what we saw in the Xfinity Serie race on Saturday we may not need to play the PD game and may want to look for 1-2 dominators. It appeared that cars were unable to jump out and run the bottom in Saturday’s race so it could be a “follow the leader” type of race for the majority of Sunday afternoon. I still recommend building multiple lineups and if you can, max out a contest. For more info regarding the race in March check out my weekend preview.

Roster Construction:

Roster construction is kind of all over the place. Both practice and qualifying were rained out on Saturday so we haven’t seen the cars on track this weekend. With the potential for one or two drivers to lead the bulk of the laps, we need to identify who has the probability of doing that.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)

Denny Hamlin ($9,700)

Starting Position: 16th

Hamlin has been one of the most up and down drivers in 2022, but he is arguably the best superspeedway style driver in the Cup Series. In 2022, Hamlin has not had much luck at this race type, but he has been running much better of late and I expect him to push or be pushed, towards the front and come home with a top-five finish. I don’t think Hamlin has dominator potential, but at his salary and starting position, he doesn’t need those points to make value.

Chase Elliott ($10,500)

Starting Position: 1st

Now, if we want someone who could dominate this race, at least at the start, then Chase Elliott is your man. Not only has Elliott been great at this race type in 2022, but also he showed up in Atlanta with an amazing stache. Elliott has a series-best 7.7 average finish and is the only driver with three top 10’s in this race type in 2022. In the first Atlanta race this season, Elliott led 29 laps, had an 8.8 average running position, and finished 6th. If Elliott can avoid any potential carnage he will be near the front and competing for the win as the laps remaining countdown.

• Both Ross Chastain ($10,300 P3) and Ryan Blaney ($10,700 – P6) are contenders on Sunday and could also be potential dominators. I rank them 2 & 3 right behind Elliott as potential dominators and winners in this race.

Joey Logano ($9,600)

Starting Position: 17th

Logano is another driver who excels in draft-style racing and he also offers some of the best place differential upside in this tier. While Logano has not run well at superspeedway in 2022, he does own five career wins on this track type. Earlier this season, Logano finished 9th at Atlanta, and considering he was involved in a wreck on lap 145 that finish is extremely impressive.

Other Options: Kyle Busch ($9,900 – P19), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,100 – P9), Kyle Larson ($10,100 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Bubba Wallace ($8,700)

Starting Position: 32nd

Wallace is the best upside play on this entire slate. When it comes to this tack type, Bubba Wallace excels. With him being so expensive, I expect Wallace’s ownership to be even lower than usual, which is exactly what I want to see. Wallace’s only career win was at Talladega and he has finished top 2 in three of the last five superspeedway races and should have a top 10 car on Sunday. I expect to be overweight on Wallace on Sunday and I am not worried about that at all.

Kevin Harvick ($7,600)

Starting Position: 10th

Harvick doesn’t offer excellent place differential upside and is a much riskier play than Bubba Wallace, but the potential is there. Earlier this season in Atlanta, Harvick had a great day but didn’t have the finish he deserved. Harvick’s car was not to his liking early, but after some adjustments, he found his way to the front and ed 11 laps. Unfortunately, he got caught up when leader Ricky Stenhouse had a flat tire and collected Harvick when he spun. On Sunday, Harvick has top-5 upside and could steal his first win in two years.

Michael McDowell ($7,300)

Starting Position: 13th

McDowell is another driver who has had incredible success on this track type. Similar to Wallace, McDowell’s only career win has come at a superspeedway (2021 Daytona 500) and he has had continued success this season. McDowell has two top 10’s in three superspeedway races in 2022 and over his last ten races in 2022, he has an average finish of 11.4 which is the 4th best during that span. Of course, this is a potentially low-owned risky play, but in GPP’s that is what you want in your lineups.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,200 – P21), Christopher Bell ($8,500 – P15), Chris Buescher ($7,000 – P11), Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100 – P20)

Value Tier ($6.9K and under)

1. Austin Dillon ($6,900) – P26: Dillon is a solid superspeedway racer and I view him as a top 15 car.
2. Erik Jones ($6,700) – P25: Jones is an underrated superspeedway driver and could be a sneaky top 10 car on Sunday.
3. Brad Keselowski ($6,500) – P31: To be completely honest, I don’t want to play Keselowski, but he has some upside. Keselowski is a solid and experienced superspeedway driver with top 15 upside if attrition works in his favor.
4. Justin Haley ($6,300) – P24: Haley is a great superspeedway driver and has top 15 potential on Sunday. In three superspeedway races in 2022, Haley has finished 11th (Atlanta), 12th (Dega), and 23rd (Daytona – wrecked).
5. Noah Gragson ($5,800) – P29: Gragson is Haley’s teammate this weekend and he is also a good superspeedway driver. If he can keep his car on track this time, a top 20 is the upside for Gragson.
6. Corey Lajoie ($5,400) – P30: Lajoie always manages a good finish at superspeedways and if attrition is on his side he could have another solid top 10 on Sunday.
7. Harrison Burton ($5,500) – P27: Speaking of attrition, that is what it will take for Burton to have a positive PD day. I think a top 20 is in the cards and a top 15 with the positive attrition.

Check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to ensure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop preview for this weekend’s two races for Atlanta Motor Speedway. I should be calling this a review because I will be looking back at the Atlanta Xfinity and Cup Series races earlier this season. This will be the first time we get to see the NextGen car return to a track so it is essential to look back at what happened. There is nothing that says this race will go the same as it did in March, but it can’t hurt to look back and see what happened. This was the first time both series’ raced on the new Atlanta Motor Speedway which now races as a “superspeedway” track similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Atlanta did not disappoint when it came to cautions and cars wrecking out of the race. In the Xfinity race, we had 23 of 38 cars involved in some type of incident during seven cautions. All of the seven cautions came in the third stage as well, which was not the same in the Cup race. During the Cup Series race at Atlanta, there were eight cautions for incident but they were spread throughout the race. In total, 27 of 37 cars were involved in some way in the eight wrecks and twelve of those cars failed to finish the race.

Do we stack the back here?

Well, if these races finish as both did in the spring then stacking the back is not a bad option. We don’t need to go all the way to the back necessarily because only one car starting lower than 30th in each race finished in the top 15, Vargas – P32 finished 12th in the Xfinity race, and Lajoie – P33 finished 5th in the Cup. Looking at the DraftKings points for the Xfinity Series race, three drivers in the optimal started between 24th and 26th. At the same time, only one driver starting in the top 10 (Allmendinger P7) made the optimal. The Xfinity optimal left $5.3K on the table by the way.

In the Cup Series, it was very different. Only two drivers who started lower than 13th made the optimal lineup from that race, but even with that being the case we still had $2.9K on the table. As for Fanduel, all five drivers in their optimal were also in the DK optimal and there was $15,000 left over in salary.

In Conclusion…

As I said, there is nothing that says these races will be the same as there were back in March, but these trends all align with a typical Superspeedway race. I will be playing lineups similar to what I would build for Daytona or Talladega. Will it be the right play, we don’t know but I think that will most likely be the safest type of build.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Kwik Trip 250 from Road America! Road America is a road course (because you didn’t know that from the name) in Elkhart Lake, Wi that is a 4.048-mile, 14-turn road course and one of NASCAR’s fastest courses. This will be only the second time the Cup Series has raced here. In that race, Chase Elliott dominated leading 24 of 62 laps with no other driver leading more than 15. This race last season was a pretty clean race with only four cars not finishing the race and only 2 cautions for incident.

Roster Construction:

There are two drivers at the top (Larson and Elliott) that I think will dominate this race and I want to have one of them in all my lineups. I like the idea of pairing them with two drivers in the mid $10K or $9K range. I will discuss which ones I prefer below. If you want to get really different, I love building a full mid-tier lineup. There are some great plays in the high $7K to $8.9K range that you could also use and have Elliott or Larson as your only top-tier play. There are only about 3-4 real good plays in the value tier this week, this is why I want to live in the mid-tier.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)

Kyle Larson ($11,400 – P3) & Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P1)

Between these two drivers, Elliott is my preferred play and probably my favorite play on the slate. Similar to the Xfinity race on Saturday we aren’t hunting dominator points in this race so I won’t play these two together. Elliott has won seven road course races since 2018 (17 races) and has twelve top 5’s, and 14 top 10’s. In two road course races this season, Elliott has a 4th place finish at COTA and an 8th place finish at Sonoma. That eighth place is deceiving though because Elliott was fast and should have been a contender at the end, but he had a pit road penalty that derailed him.

As for Larson, he dominated the field for the majority of Saturday’s Xfinity race but was overtaken by Ty Gibbs on the last lap and finished 2nd. Last season at this race, Larson finished top 5 in both stages and had an average running position but spun after contact with Alex Bowman on lap 56 while running 4th and finished 16th. Larson is, in my opinion, a top 3 road course racer in the Cup Series and will be a contender on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney ($9,200)

Starting Position: 19th

Blaney is a top-tier road course driver that is typically overlooked in these types of races. In two road course races in 2022, Blaney has finished 6th both times and has the 2nd best average running position (8.7) and total speed ranking. Blaney didn’t show great speed in Saturday’s practice session, but he should contend for a top 10 easily. Last season at this race, Blaney had multiple on-track incidents that led him to a 20th place finish, but I am not putting much stock into that race and looking more at his 2022 road course statistics.

Ross Chastain ($10,300)

Starting Position: 12th

Chastain has become an elite road course driver over the years, and in 2022 you could make a case that he is the best right now. At COTA, Chastain came home with the win, and then at Sonoma, he finished seventh even after spinning late in the race. In the two races this season on this track type, Chastain has the best average finish (4th) and average running position (6.5) and he ranks 3rd best late in a run. Chastain was third in practice on Saturday and I expect a top 5 from Chastain on Sunday.

William Byron ($9,000)

Starting Position: 29th

Byron had a great car last year at this track and after starting on the pool he led 15 laps but had a misleading result. Byron was mired back in traffic after a bad pit stop and then went off track and that ruined his day. In that race, Byron was 9th fastest in overall speed and had the 4th best speed late in a run. In two road course races this season, Byron has finished 12th at COTA and 9th at Sonoma.

AJ Allmendinger ($9,100)

Starting Position: 21st

Allmendinger is a well-known road course expert, and should definitely be in contention on Sunday. Allmendinger is one of the top plays for cash games this week but I don’t think I will have an interest in GPP’s. While Allmendinger excels in the Xfinity Series on this track type, he seems to have issues in Cup cars. Last year at this race, Allmendinger was running well inside the top 10 but had an extended pit stop after stage 2 and finished 29th. I expect Dinger to be highly owned, and if he runs into trouble on Sunday those of us who fade him could hit big.

Other Options: Martin Truex Jr. ($9,600 – P15): Truex always runs well at road courses and is underpriced on Sunday. I don’t have him ranked higher because I expect him to carry some ownership at this starting position and salary. Kyle Busch ($10,800 – P13) – Busch will be scored from P13, but will start at the rear because of an engine change. I expect low ownership on Kyle, so he is plenty viable in GPP’s, but stay away in cash.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Austin Cindric ($8,500)

Starting Position: 5th

Cindric is a proven road course racing expert and could earn his second career win and second win of 2022 on Sunday. Only Larson and Cindric reached the top speed on the track in practice (107MPH) and Cindric was 4th fastest in single-lap speed. This season on road courses, Cindric is the fastest driver late in a run and 5th fastest in total speed rankings. Cindric has an average finish of 6.5 in the two races on this track type in 2022 with an 8th at COTA and then 5th at Sonoma.

Chase Briscoe ($8,300)

Starting Position: 2nd

Briscoe is another young gun who excels on road courses. In practice, Briscoe put down the fastest single lap time and said after practice that his car is fast and he is happy with it. Briscoe was great here at Road America in 2021 where he started 35th but finished 6th. We can expect Briscoe to have a negative place differential, but he should still be around the top 5 all day and easily make value at his low salary.

Daniel Suarez ($7,700)

Starting Position: 17th

Suarez is coming off a win at the last road course when the series was in Sonoma a few weeks ago. In that race, Suarez led 47 laps and was tied for the best total speed ranking in that race. Suarez had a car that could’ve finished top 5 at COTA but after leading 15 laps he had issues and finished 24th. Suarez should be a top 10 car on Sunday and offers some of the best PD upside for his price in this tier.

Other Options: Kevin Harvick ($8,100 – P28), Christopher Bell ($8,900 – P16), Tyler Reddick ($8,600 – P4), Erik Jones ($7,300 – P27)

Value Tier ($6.9K and under)

1. Justin Haley ($5,900) – P34: Haley has two finished in the teens at road courses in 2022, and if we can get that on Sunday he will be optimal. I expect Haley to be the highest-owned driver in this tier but he is good chalk for me.
2. Chris Buescher ($6,300) – P7: Nobody will play Buescher, and I am not sure why. If you look at his stats, Buescher is a good road course driver. In practice, Buescher was 6th fastest and earlier this season at Sonoma Buescher finished 2nd and was tied for the top total speed ranking.
3. Michael McDowell ($6,800) – P6: Another driver that will be low-owned is McDowell. Earlier this season, McDowell finished 3rd at Sonoma and had the third-best total speed ranking. I see McDowell as a top 10 car on Sunday with top 5 upside again.
4. Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P30: Dillon showed some great speed in practice and is a great piece to use with Haley in cash games or SE. This season on road courses has finishes of 20th and 23rd.
5. Austin Dillon ($6,200) – P20: Dillon has finished 10th and 11th at the two road course races in 2022. I think Dillon gets overlooked in favor of his brother and Haley for salary savings on Sunday and could be a good pivot off the chalk.
6. Cole Custer ($6,100) – P10: Custer has shown top 10 speed at road courses in 2022 (10th best total speed ranking). This play is risky but has the potential to pay off. Custer ran well in the Xfinity race on Saturday until his brakes failed with 2 laps left.
7. Josh Bilicki ($4,700) – P26: Bilicki is a good road course driver and it showed last season when he finished 23rd here. At Sonoma, Biliki had a rough day and finished 29th, but at COTA he was 22nd.
8. Joey Hand ($5,200) – P9: This is a VERY risky play, but I could see Hand being under 5% ownership. Hand’s car was fast in practice (7th fastest lap) and he kept it going in qualifying as well. If you’re making one lineup, go safe with Haley or Dillon, but if you are making multiple lineups then maybe throw Hand in one or two.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for Sunday’s Cup Series race, the Ally 400, from Nashville Superspeedway! Don’t let the name fool you this is not a superspeedway in the way Daytona or Talladega is. Nashville is a 1.33-mile concrete “short” track. This track is similar to Dover with a little sprinkle of Richmond and Martinsville. Nashville Superspeedway runs like a short flat track while having a concrete surface similar to that of Dover.

This will be only the second time the Cup Series has raced at Nashville Superspeedway and last season this race was completely and totally dominated by Kyle Larson. Can he do it again? We will have to wait and see, but Larson and the 5 car did look fast in practice and he should be a contender on Sunday. NASCAR did allow for an extended practice session on Friday night so the teams had more time on track than usual this week. Because of this, I am going to be putting a lot of stock in the practice times and speeds for this race.

Roster Construction:

There is one driver who is going to be the clear-cut chalk of the field, but he needs to be in your lineups. Outside of that, there are a variety of ways you can go in this race. With there being 210 dominator points available in this race, it will be key to get your dominators right. We saw Allgaier dominate the Xfinity race on Saturday and if you didn’t have him it was hard to cash. This race could be a little different because the chalk play is $11K, so we really can only afford one other dominator option. I am looking at this race as a potential stars and scrubs build type, but you can go the two top-tier route you can be balanced and that could work just as well.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators)

In case you didn’t already know, Kyle Busch ($11,000 – P36) is the chalk “must play” driver I was talking about in the open. Kyle spun and got into the wall in qualifying on Saturday and as a result, will start last. I hate when Kyle Busch is chalk, but unfortunately, there is no way around playing him, especially in single-entry and cash games. In his last ten races, Busch has five top 5’s and eight top 10’s. I don’t know if we can expect much in the way of dominator points from Busch but his place differential upside can easily help him clear value. Busch was top 3 in all practice metrics on Friday.

Kyle Larson ($11,000)

Starting Position: 3rd

Larson was fast and in the top four in every speed metric in practice on Friday and looks to have an exceptionally fast Chevy. Last season, Larson led a race-high 264 laps and was practically untouchable on the track. I don’t think we see that from the 5 team on Sunday, but I do see a top 5 finish and a high dominator potential from Larson. Playing the Kyle’s together might not be a popular build type because of their salaries but at the end of the day, they could be the two highest-scoring drivers. We have some good value in the low $7K to high $6K range that makes this build type work for us so don’t feel scared to go there.

Ross Chastain ($10,500)

Starting Position: 7th

If you don’t trust Kyle Larson, and I can totally see why you wouldn’t, then Ross Chastain might be the best pivot off of him. Chastain’s car seemed to improve throughout the practice session on Friday and of the seven drivers who made 20 consecutive laps, nobody was faster than Chastain. In that session, Chastain was also top five in 5-lap and 10-lap average. Starting from the 7th spot gives Chastain some better PD upside compared to Larson, but I do rank his dominator potential a little lower. That being said, Chastain did finish 2nd to Larson here in 2021 and I would not be surprised if Chastain improves that position on Sunday.

William Byron ($9,900)

Starting Position: 13th

Byron is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma in the 2022 season. We just can’t figure him out, some weeks he looks dominant, and then others he is just another car out for a Sunday drive. But maybe there’s a key? Byron was one of the best cars in this race last season. In that race, Byron started at the back (unapproved adjustments) and drove himself right through the field to finish 3rd. In Friday’s practice session, Byron was fast as well posting top 10 speed rankings in 5,10, and 15-lap average. For me, Byron is a top-five car. Could we see a repeat of the top finishers from last season in this race, well the fourth-place driver from 2021 was pretty fast too on Friday, but more on him later.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700)

Starting Position: 10th

Truex announced that he will be back in the 19 car for the 2023 season. I am sure that decision was weighing heavy on him and he must be relieved to have that ordeal over with. After practice on Friday, Truex also said that he really liked his car and it might be the best car he has had in a practice session all season. In that session, Truex was 12th in 5-lap average but made a big jump in the longer run metrics to 7th best in 10-lap and 5th in 15-lap averages. This season Truex was great at Dover and had top two speed at the end of the race until he was wrecked on the last lap running in third. Also in that race, Truex was the fastest driver late in a run which is great for Nashville because I expect some long green flag runs here.

Other options: Denny Hamlin ($10200 – P1) – Denny has dominator potential early in this race but I think Larson and Chastain may be just a little better. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P4) –Elliott is another driver with dominator potential and could end up in victory lane. Last year Elliott was fast at this track but came home a disappointing 13th and then was dq’d for loose lug nuts and scored as 39th. Christopher Bell ($9,100 – P9) – Bell was top ten in both 5 and 10-lap average in practice and was 9th here in 2021.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier

Aric Almirola ($7,500)

Starting Position: 11th

Remember earlier I mentioned that I’d have more on the fourth-place driver from 2021 in this race, well here he is, Aric Almirola. In this race last season, Almirola started on the pole and finished 4th and it was a great overall race for the 10 car. Almirola finished 4th, had the 3rd best speed ranking, was 4th best late in a run, and had an average running position of 6.4. This is a track type that Almirola typically excels at and Sunday should be no different. Almirola won’t dominate this race and probably isn’t even a top 5 upside driver, but for his salary, a low teens finish will suffice. I also think Almirola could sneak in a top 10 finish (+120 on DK is a nice number if you wanted to take that bet).

Alex Bowman ($8,700)

Starting Position: 12th

Bowman is a top 10 to top 15 car on a weekly basis. He doesn’t really do much to show up on the “highlight” reel but he is Mr. Consistent in 2022. Since Las Vegas, where he won, Bowman has only finished lower than 16th one time, at Darlington where he wrecked along with everyone else. When it comes to a DFS aspect he is consistently making value and going completely overlooked. Bowman was 15th in 10-lap average on Friday and 10th in 15-lap, I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside in attrition goes in his favor.

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100)

Starting Position: 25th

Stenhouse is a driver who is hard to play in DFS because of volatility and I hate writing him up for that reason. More often than not he makes me look bad, but I will give it another go on Sunday. Stenhouse was not one of the fastest cars in practice and he qualified right about where he ranked. My belief in Stenhouse comes from his recent history on this track type. Last season at this race, Stenhouse finished top 10 in both stages, had a 6.3 average running position, and was 6th at the end of the day. This season at Dover, another concrete track, Stenhouse finished 2nd. There is obviously plenty of risk with this play, but if we want to pay all the way up to the top tier, we need to find some value.

Other Options: Kurt Busch ($8,300 – P19) – Busch showed some decent speed on Friday, but he will need to be faster to make value. I think Kurt can be a top 10 car if he works with his teammate and sees what made them so fast. Chase Briscoe ($8,100 – P28) – Briscoe was a top 15 car in practice but had a poor qualifying run. Last season here he was a top 10 car, but lost his brakes late and got into the wall. There is some big upside in this car, but he will be popular. Austin Dillon ($7,000 – P20) – Dillon has been pretty consistent since the series was at COTA. In his last eleven races, Austin Dillon has five top 10’s and has finished 15th or better in eight. I view Dillon as a top 15 car on Sunday.

I won’t talk you off most of the mid-tier this week but I decided that the six listed above are the best options.

NASCAR DFS: Value Rankings

1. Bubba Wallace ($6,500) – P30: Wallace is another driver that can be volatile but this week I am confident in the 23 team. Nobody was better in practice than Wallace. In Friday’s session, Wallace was 2nd in 5-lap, 1st in 10 and 15-lap, and 3rd in 20-lap average. I think Wallace will be higher owned than he usually is, but not to the extent a different driver in this position would be.
2. Todd Gilliland ($5,100) – P33: We need value and I view Gilliland as the best in this price range. On this track type in 2022, Gilliland has an average finish on 22nd and finished 28th at Dover. There isn’t much correlation from his Truck Series run in 2021 (2nd) to his potential Cup run on Sunday but I do think the knowledge of running well here in another series can’t hurt Gilliland.
3. Brad Keselowski ($6,600) – P27: Keselowski was slow on Friday and did not qualify well either. I don’t love playing Keselowski and will probably have minimal exposure to him. This season he did show some flashes at this track type so there is that. Keselowski is a good pivot off of Wallace for those who don’t trust him.
4. Ty Dillon ($5,500) – P29: Dillon has been a mid-20’s driver most of the season and I expect the same from him on Sunday. At this track type in 2022, Dillon has finished between 22nd and 27th in every race. The bottom of the value tier is weak once again so we have to make do with what we have.
5. Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P18: McDowell is usually good at finishing close to where his practice numbers are and he was a top 20 driver on Friday. I expect McDowell’s ownership to be extremely low so he could make for a great high-risk-high-reward type GPP play in large-field tournaments.
6. Cole Custer ($6,300) – P17: Custer is similar to McDowell wherein he is not a big upside play but could get you there if he just stays the course. Last season here, Custer was a mid-teens car but had a tire cut down and that ended his race.
7. BJ McLeod ($4,600) – P35: McLeod will be the slowest car on the track, he will get lapped, and he will not show any upside early in this race. Then there will be a wreck or two and a couple of cars will be out of the race and all of a sudden McLeod will be in 31st place and make value when the checkers fly.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/).

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022. Check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)