There is a six-game slate this afternoon and we’re kicking things off early with a 1:05 p.m. start. We’ve got some interesting options today and we also get the first start Luis Castillo makes for the Mariners after being dealt from the Reds. Let’s talk about him and everyone else in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/3 to find green screens!
He got smacked in one inning last start but that was it, which is really weird. With Cole, we always know he can get hit by some odd teams but we also know the upside and that’s even more important on a short slate. His xFIP is just 2.72 but the ERA is 3.30 and the K rate is 32.5% but it comes up further at home to 35.6%. Even better is when he faces lefties because it jumps to over 40% when he’s at home and if the Mariners play the same lineup as last night, they had seven lefties. Seattle is 10th against the fastball but is missing important players from their offense and Cole’s fastball has a 31.6% whiff rate even though it makes up about 50% of his pitches. If he gets as many lefties as we suspect, I’m very much in on Cole today and would be over the field.
In a small twist, Castillo just faced the Yankees on July 14th and he was excellent with seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. That makes three straight games he’s hit eight and he just hit 11 on June 28th. His K rate is up to 25.8% to go with a 2.86 ERA, a 3.38 xFIP, a 47.1% ground ball rate, and an 11.7% swinging-strike rate. That all looks strong to go against a team like the Yankees and then Castillo adds in a .246 wOBA, a 27.5% K rate, and a 2.64 FIP against the right side of the plate. That’s why we liked him the first time around when he faced the Yanks and his four-seam has just been unreal this season. It’s actually down a smidge for velocity but it also has a 38.5% whiff rate, a .203 wOBA, and 45 strikeouts. I suppose there could be some jitters with a new team but he is very interesting in this spot, even with the potential risk.
I feel a little less sure about Bieber, even though he’s learned to live with his somewhat diminished velocity. He’s averaging 91 mph after sitting at 92.8 mph last year for his fastball and the whiff rate has followed, dropping from 22.8% in 2021 to just 14.7% this season. Still, his slider is generating a 40.9% whiff rate, and just as important today, his curve has a 38.8% whiff rate. The slider has more strikeouts at 51 but the curve has 39 and the slider is thrown double the amount of time with the exception of facing lefties. His curve is the main pitch when facing lefties followed by the fastball and cutter. That’s a big reason why his wOBA against the left side is .254 and the K rate jumps to 27.3%, the WHIP is 1.00, and the xFIP is 3.10. With the number of lefties he’ll face, we have to be interested in Bieber today.
It’s another great matchup for Perez as the Orioles have the third-highest K rate against lefty pitching at 25.4%. When they are making contact, they are 24th in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and don’t climb past 18th in any category. Perez has been dodging a 3.68 xFIP with his 2.52 ERA all season and while that’s not ideal, it’s not surprising when he only has a 6.2% HR/FB rate. That will likely go up in the second half but the Orioles got the wind taken out of their sails yesterday as the Orioles were sellers at the deadline. On top of that, Perez has a 20.9% K rate and has generated a 52.4% ground ball rate. That’s a good thing because Baltimore has the fourth-highest fly-ball rate against lefties, one avenue of success for them. His sinker and cutter have totaled 77 strikeouts and the changeup has a whiff rate of 33.6% so he’s got the arsenal and even the right side of the plate is not over a .285 wOBA, a 0.62 HR/9, or a 3.26 FIP. He just gets outs.
His past two starts have been overwhelming, with 22 strikeouts, one earned run, 13 innings, and just three walks. There really isn’t anything in the pitch mix that would unlock anything on the surface, so I’m not really sure we should change what we think about Singer overall. Now, his profile really isn’t that bad with a 3.22 xFIP, a 26.6% K rate, and a 46.8% ground ball rate. That all gets even better against righties with a .277 wOBA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 2.98 xFIP and he should face plenty of righties with the White Sox. They have been mostly horrid against righty pitching this year and they bottom out as low as 29th in ISO. His slider has a 39.2% whiff rate and 50 strikeouts and the White Sox are 26th when facing that pitch. This is a pretty good spot for Singer and the salary is super affordable, despite scoring 32.5 and 34 DK points in his past two starts.
On the surface, it looks like another really rough start for Lynn but it was basically just one bad inning, just like Cole last Friday. Lynn matched a season-high in strikeouts at eight and his xFIP coming out of the start was 2.38, making it three straight starts that he’s had an xFIP under 3.10 despite giving up a total of 10 runs. The Royals should have five lefties in the lineup, and that’s a concern since Lynn has a .395 wOBA against that side of the plate. The xFIP is 4.52 against that side but the Royals also only have one lefty with a wOBA over .300 and the highest ISO is MJ Melendez at .184. We’ve been saying that Lynn isn’t this bad and he has scored at least 17 DK in each of the past two games. That would be great at this salary and I’ll bet he’s popular again to some extent.
On a shorter slate, we have to take some chances in places and in GPP ONLY, Bradish checks the box. He scored 18 points in his last spot and has been talented the entire time he’s been in the majors. Where that really shows up in his metrics is the lefties, as he has a 27.2% K rate, a 1.34 WHIP (the .339 BABIP isn’t helping), a 3.70 FIP, and a 2.95 xFIP. The Rangers played six lefties last night and should do it again, leaning into exactly what Bradish should do well. His slider/change/curve all have a whiff rate over 26% of the time and if Lynn is chalky, this could be the pivot that makes you different.
Astros
Guardians
Twins
Tigers (LHH)
Rangers
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s the day after the trade deadline and we’ll see some newly made lineups today for the first time. We’ll also see guys like Luis Castillo making their debuts in new cities vs. powerhouse teams. We also have a split MLB DFS slate of games today, with a 6-game slate starting at 1 pm EST and another starting at 7 pm EST. This article will be tailored around the 1 pm slate. We’ll be posting notes for the last slate in discord later so make sure to hop on in there.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
If you looked at just the ERA for Tyler Alexander over the last month, you’d see someone that you think is a solid pitcher. Over the last month, Alexander has pitched to a 2.4 ERA. His xFIP tells us a very different story, sitting at a paltry 5.29. With the amount of contact that Alexander gives up and the type of contact that Alexander gives up, you have to expect some regression. I think it comes today at the hands of the Minnesota Twins.
Alexander is giving up a nearly 86% contact rate over the last month, with a 34% hard-hit rate and a 40% flyball rate. Again, you can only rely on a low BABIP for so long. At some point, all of that hard contact is going to fall and teams are going to score runs in droves. The Twins should be able to do that today. With Alexander, we want to prioritize getting the righties of Minnesota into this lineup. Against righties, Alexander has a 5.02 FIP and a 5.26 xFIP. Both are significantly higher than against lefties.
Core: My Twins’ core will revolve around Jose Miranda and Carlos Correa. Even with his 0-4 last night, Miranda has been hot over the last couple of weeks. He had hit safely in 7 of his previous 8 games before last night’s dud. Over that stretch, he had 2 homers and multiple 3-hit games. Against righties, over the last month, he’s been solid, with a .476 ISO and a .469 wOBA. Miranda is extremely affordable today at just $3.7K on DK.
Correa is also in a smash spot today. Alexander throws his cutter to righties about 40% of the time. Over the last several seasons, Correa has a .500 ISO and a .580 wOBA against lefty cutters. He too is very reasonably priced at $4.5k today.
Secondary Pieces: Other pieces that I’ll look to get into this stack this afternoon will be Jorge Polanco, Gio Urshela, Luis Arraez, and Gary Sanchez. My favorite of this bunch will be Urshela and Arraez. Urshela has had a decent year against lefties, with an 11wRC and a .264 average. Over the last month, he has a wOBA of .326 vs. them. While Arraez won’t get the platoon advantage here, he will at some point in the game. He’s made it through 4 innings just twice all year.
At some point, Arraez will face a righty today and will do some damage for us. Gary Sanchez is set for a strong day too today. After struggling to start the year vs. lefties, he’s starting to show some strength against them. Over the last month, he has a .397 wOBA vs. them with a .300 ISO.
Value: Should Kyle Garlick come back today, I’ll look to get him into my stacks. He’s been arguably their best and most consistent hitter against lefties. And he’ll only cost us $3k on DK.
With how poorly Brayan Bello has pitched so far in the Majors, I expect the Astros to be the chalk MLB DFS stack of the day. Through 4 starts so far in the bigs, Bello has pitched to an 8.82 ERA and a 4.73 xFIP. He’s yet to give up a homer, so this is the type of stack that you want to go full bore. I’m saying this because he has a massive 2.27 WHIP through his 4 starts. He puts just a ton of runners on and you’ll want to take full advantage of that by going full stack here.
His 6.06 BB/9 over the last month is by far the highest of any pitcher on the hill this afternoon. If the Astros can show some patience at the plate today, they’ll explode for a ton of runs. Bello has been pretty awful against both sides of the plate so far in his career, so I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits.
Core: My Astros core will always start with Yordan Alvarez. He is a top 10 hitter in the game and has more raw power than most. Against righties over the last month, Alvarez has a .471 ISO and a .487 wOBA. He’s in a little bit of a funk right now, but he did hit a double last night and is primed for a breakout game against Bello today.
Another piece I really like here is going to be Kyle Tucker. Over the last month, Tucker has a .351 wOBA vs. righties. He too is a little cold right now, but part of his struggles have been a string of bad luck. He has just a .095 BABIP over the last week, with just 2 K’s. He’s putting the ball in play, he’s just finding gloves every time. Those balls will drop eventually.
Secondary Pieces: Other pieces I like in this stack are going to be Jose Altuve, Trey Mancini, and Yuli Gurriel. Gurriel has been very strong over the last week, with 9 hits in 25 AB. He’s coming into this afternoon’s tilt riding a 7-game hitting streak. Gurriel has been their most consistent hitter of late and is an affordable $3.5k today. While he’s expensive, Altuve is always in play. He sets the tone for this offense and even though they didn’t score much last night, Altuve still set the tone with 2 hits and the lone run scored.
Value: The one potential value piece for this lineup as of now is Jake Meyers at the minimum DK price of $2k. Doing a wrap-around stack of 9-3 gets you Meyers, Altuve, Mancini, and Alvarez. And it will only cost an average of $4.3k.
The 2022 version of Lance Lynn has not been pretty. Through 9 starts, Lynn is on pace to have by far the worst year of his career. Has father time finally caught up to the 35-year-old? It’s quite possible. While the xFIP is considerably lower than his ERA, a lot of that is due to his ability to still occasionally strike some hitters out. That said, he’s been making way too many mistakes and those mistakes have been turning into home runs. His HR/9 of 1.89 is significantly higher than his career average of .89.
While this isn’t a powerhouse lineup, they are young and hungry now and can on occasion put up a big number. On the year, Lynn has been pretty bad vs. lefties. They have a .560 slugging % vs. him and a .320 batting average.
Core: Even though we’re going to want lefties in this matchup vs. Lynn, I’m starting my Royals build with Salvador Perez. Since coming off the IL, he’s been light’s out and has accounted for the majority of their recent offense. He has hits in 4 of the 5 games, with 3 homers and 4 extra-base hits. Over the 5 games, he also has 10 RBI. He’s their offense and will be a lock in my Royals stack.
Another piece to my core is going to be MJ Melendez. Melendez has also been one of the better hitters in this lineup. Over his last 21 AB, he has 6 hits and has also walked 4 times.
Value Pieces: After my core, we can jump right to some value pieces, and the Royals will have plenty of it. Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, and Kyle Isbel are all minimum priced and will make for decent punts. My favorite of the 3 will be Pasquantino. Pasquantino has hits in 5 of his last 6 games and has reached base in 8 straight games. He’s just $2.1k on DK and will hit in the middle of this lineup with the platoon advantage.
Other MLB DFS stacks I like this afternoon will be the Red Sox vs. Jose Urquidy, Rangers vs. Kyle Bradish, and the Orioles vs. Martin Perez. A full game stack of the Rangers/Orioles game is in play.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It is a very crowded last tonight and we get the return of Jacob deGrom, who has missed the entire season to this point but he will not make the article. DraftKings has priced him as if he hasn’t missed virtually any time so that’s going to be difficult to get there. Still, there are plenty of quality options among the 27 other pitchers to choose from in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/2 to find green screens!
We may not be able to play deGrom in his first game back but we can continue the trend of picking on the Buccos, and we can do it with an ace for the second straight game. In three of his past four games, he’s whiffed double-digit hitters and the last time he didn’t throw at least 100 pitches was June 15th. Burnes is flirting with 33% for the K rate and the trio of xFIP/FIP/ERA is all under 2.95 so there isn’t a whole lot to pick on for the surface numbers. Once we look at the splits, the left side is the weaker side against Burnes with a .234 wOBA, a 33.6% K rate, a 2.34 xFIP, and a 0.87 WHIP. The Pirates play a ton of lefties generally and they are 29th against the cutter and 16th against the curve. Those are the two most important pitches for Burnes as they both have a whiff rate of at least 31% and they have accounted for 112 strikeouts. There is really not that much of a comparison between Burnes and deGrom tonight, at least on paper.
He’s been on a tear lately and while the surface numbers on the season don’t look superb, he’s been pitching like that and his K rate has jumped over 30% in 34 innings pitched in July. The ERA was 3.18 but the wOBA allowed was only .262 and the xFIP was the best it has been all year at 2.79. It definitely helps that Darvish is at home too because he’s been two different pitchers, with San Diego being very friendly to him. He has a 1.94 ERA at home with a .223 wOBA allowed and a 0.76 WHIP along with a 26% K rate, and now you have the Colorado offense on the road against righties. They rank 27th in every offensive category and Darvish throws any pitch he wants at any point he wants. Burnes is sure to be the cash play, but Darvish is a very interesting GPP play.
I’m hesitant with McKenzie at this salary but the splits would tell us the D-Backs might be among the best matchups he could draw. He’s holding lefties to a .236 wOBA, a .158 average, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 29.2% K rate. With the D-Backs being super-lefty heavy, that’s a good start for him and they also drop to under 50% for the fly-ball rate, an accomplishment for McKenzie. I wish he’d throw the fastball less but Arizona is just 16th against that pitch and it does have 39 strikeouts. However, the curve has more at 47 and that has been far and away the best-performing pitch. It carries a 44.5% whiff rate and a .148 wOBA allowed, but he’s only throwing it 20.6% of the time. The good news is that the D-Backs are 28th against that one so this truly is an undeniable spot, even at a high salary.
Honorable Mention
Playing Kevin Gausman really depends on how many lineups you play because I don’t think I’d include him in a rotation in a 3-max setting. Since the start of June, his ERA is over 4.00 and the wOBA allowed is over .350 to go along with a K rate of around 25%. Sure, we can point out that the xFIP s under 3.50 so he’s been unlucky and the Rays’ offense is 20th or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA with a 24.7% K rate. Gausman has just seen wild swings in production so, in my view, I’d want at least 10-20 lineups to get some exposure because he absolutely has a ceiling.
There is a small part of me that says this ridiculous salary could be a trap. Strider scored 25 DK points against this Philly offense in the last start and his salary dropped $400 on DK. There’s just not an explanation for that. Now, my slight fear comes in from seeing the same offense twice in a row, because we know that can have a negative effect on the pitcher. It’s also a little concerning that he uses the fastball SO much at 69.1% but at the same time, it has 79 strikeouts, a 28.1% whiff rate, and a .260 wOBA allowed. At the end of the day, even with some warts, Strider is not priced anything close to correct with a 36.4% K rate as a starter to go along with a 2.58 xFIP and a .246 wOBA allowed. I’m still very in at this salary and neither side has a wOBA over .260 against him and both sides are over a 33.5% K rate.
The Houston pitching staff outside of Verlander has been a little tough to predict but Javier has a good shot at a strong start tonight with the Red Sox in a bit of a state of upheaval. Javier has a 3.67 xFIP which is just fine but his fly-ball rate of 58.5% will almost always keep that high. At least Javier brings a K rate of 33.6% to the table and last night’s Red Sox lineup had five righties. We want as many as we can get since Javier has a .260 wOBA, 41.6% K rate, and a 2.85 xFIP against that side of the plate. The biggest fear with him is he tries to strike everyone out, and it’s not hard to see Boston working the pitch count in a hurry. They are only 26th in walk rate but Javier can be tough to watch when his control isn’t that great.
Well, this is one way to test just how bad the Angels currently are. Irvin is honestly not playing that poorly lately with four of his past five starts scoring over 20 DK points and the overall profile isn’t terrible, although it doesn’t stand out either. He’s got to love the matchup as the Angels are 28th in wRC+ and OPS, 27th in wOBA and ISO, and 26th in OBP on the season to go with a K rate of 24.5%. Over the past 30 days, the K rate has jumped to 26.7% and Iron does have a K rate of 17%. I don’t love the fact his 3.07 ERA is so far apart from the 4.31 xFIP but he’s held both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA. I wouldn’t say he has a standout pitch as no offering has a whiff rate over 27.5% and even then, his curve is only being used at 18.1%. Nothing jumps out but the Angels have been so putrid and Irving is very cheap given the recent performance and though 34 innings in July have produced a 1.85 ERA, a .187 wOBA allowed, and a 2.47 FIP. The 4.27 xFIP is obviously concerning but I’m willing to roll the dice here.
I won’t blame anyone if they pass on him but $6,800 is some kind of salary for Giolito. He seemed like he had figured something out prior to the break but he got hammered by Cleveland and then struggled in Colorado. Maybe I’m just being too stubborn with Giolito but in this house, we believe in the metrics and they are pretty kind to Giolito when we get below the surface. The one that really stands out s the xFIP of 3.75 compared to his 5.14 ERA and the .349 BABIP is killing him. That’s roughly .50 points higher than an average pitcher and his HR/FB rate of 16.1% is the highest it has been since 2017. The K rate has dipped but is still 25.8% and his fly-ball rate actually dropped from the 2021 season. His change and slider have really been the culprits as they both had wOBA’s allowed under .285 last year but they have spiked to over .365 this season. Kansas City is no higher than 15th against those two pitches but there is a risk here, needless to say. The Royals played five righties last night and that’s been the issue since they have a 2.17 HR/9, a 20.5% K rate, and a 5.75 FIP. If he’s chalk, I’ll be terrified but something has to give for Giolito…I think.
Honorable Mention
In a world where everything goes right, I don’t think we would see Noah Syndergaard score more points than Giolito. He also may not even make this starts as he’s been thrown around in trade rumors but if he does, he brings a 4.27 xFIP, an 18.9% K rate, and a 32.7% hard-hit rate to the table. The Oakland offense is in the bottom five in everything, but they can be pesky at times and Syndergaard can be had by stolen bases. He doesn’t hold runners on at all (don’t bet it until after the trade deadline, but Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown lead the team with 10 and seven swipes) but Oakland is also dead last in OBP. Syndergaard can work his way to over 15 DK points in this start to be sure.
Jacob deGrom – I simply can’t pay the highest salary on the slate for him when he’s not hit even 70 pitches in his rehab starts. The Mets are (rightfully) going to treat him with kid gloves and he’s simply too expensive for me.
Jameson Taillon – He’s another one that has been tougher to get right and his last four starts have two that are over 24 DK and two that have combined for 2.3 DK points. That’s….quite the roller coaster and I have a very difficult time clicking his name ahead of Strider since Strider has a K rate roughly 16% higher.
Adam Wainwright – I never get the guy right but we need to see the Cubs lineup that he’s facing. There are strong odds it will be weaker than it was in their last game, and Waino could take advantage. His xFIP is 3.82 and the K rate is 19.6% and the HR/9 is 0.95. It also doesn’t hurt that Yadier Molina is expected back tonight, so stay tuned on Waino.
Brewers
Mets
Padres (LHH especially)
Rangers/Orioles Game Stack
Dodgers
Braves
Astros
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and we have a solid 9-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. On the hill, we have one of my favorite pitchers to attack throwing against my favorite team. We know what’s about to go down.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
When I looked at today’s slate of games, I got a little teary-eyed. I saw that Patrick Corbin was facing off against my New York Mets. The Mets are surging while Patrick Corbin is struggling. Corbin couldn’t make it out of the first inning in his last outing vs. the Dodgers, giving up 6 ER in just two-thirds of an innings. This game was not an anomaly as he’s now struggled mightily in 4 straight games. Over his last 4 games, Corbin has given up 20 ER.
He’s going to have an extremely hard time taming the beast that is the Mets, winners of 6 straight games and now 27 games over .500. While the Mets have only been about league average vs. lefties this season, they have enough firepower in this lineup to do some damage against Corbin. With Corbin, we really want to focus on righties as they have a .521 slugging % and a .387 wOBA. That said, lefties aren’t too far behind as they still have a slugging % of .486 and a wOBA of .375.
Core: My core with the Mets tonight will be Pete Alonso and Starling Marte. Both of these guys have been by far the Mets’ best two hitters vs. southpaws. Aided by an insanely high BABIP of .419, Marte has the best numbers of any Mets player this year vs. lefties. He’s sporting a .557 slugging % and a .381 OBP. Corbin throws his sinker more than 45% of the time to righties. Marte has had a decent amount of success against these from lefties, with a .399 wOBA.
Now onto Pete Alonso. This is a match made in heaven for the Polar Bear. In a small sample size, Alonso has absolutely crushed lefty sinkers. He has a .750 ISO and a .663 wOBA. This has led to monster career numbers vs. Corbin, with 4 homers in 33 AB and a 1.276 OPS.
Secondary Pieces: My next two pieces here will be Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha. Brandon Nimmo has surprisingly been very solid vs. lefties this year. He’s actually tied for the team lead with 21 wRC. On the year he has an impressive .782 OPS vs. lefties. He’s coming into this one with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He’s not a core to my Mets stack though as he’s quite expensive tonight, at $5.1k on DK. I also really love Mark Canha here.
Value: My two value pieces for the Mets will be two guys at the back of the order. J.D. Davis is someone that profiles really well against Corbin. He has a .468 wOBA vs. lefty sinkers and has a long history of crushing Corbin. In 35 AB, he has 4 homers and a 1.127 OPS. He’s also just $2.1k on DK tonight. He’ll make paying up for Alonso a little easier to stomach. Thomas Nido is also a cheapy getting the platoon advantage. He’s just $2.4k on DK and will be in a lineup that is expected to score a lot of runs tonight.
Since coming back from the IL, Nathan Eovaldi has now thrown 3 clunkers. He’s allowed 16 ER in just 13 innings of work. While some of that is exaggerated by a 9 ER outing vs. the Blue Jays, he’s still been giving up just a ton of contact while not striking many out. Tonight he’ll have to run into a solid Houston Astros lineup. Their lineup continues to be one of the top lineups in the game, having scored fourth most runs over the last week. They have very few holes for Eovaldi to try to take advantage and it will be a struggle for him from the get-go.
With Eovaldi, we’re going to have a slight lean to the righties. While the power numbers have been about equal for righties and lefties vs. Eovaldi, righties get on base way more and have hit for a higher average. That’s led to a wOBA nearly 50 points higher for righties.
Core: My core tonight for the Astros will be Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Altuve is coming into this game playing some great baseball. He had a solid last couple of days against the Mariners, with 3 hits in 7 AB, a couple of walks, a couple of runs scored, and an RBI. He’s a solid spot to do some damage vs. Eovaldi tonight.
Bregman is another Astros primed for a big day. Over the last month, he’s been really solid vs. righties. He has a .255 ISO vs. them and a .366 wOBA. Before his 0-4 yesterday, he had been swinging a hot stick with hits in 4 straight and very full stat lines in all of them. If you had to pick between the core picks due to price, I’d lean to Bregman since he’s priced just a bit cheaper.
Secondary Pieces: While they aren’t in my core for the Astros tonight, they’re pretty close. Both Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should smash tonight. Alvarez is coming into this with 2 poor games in a row, but right before that, he had been crushing every pitcher he faced. Over the last month, Alvarez has a .500 ISO vs. righties and a .510 wOBA. He’s one of the best hitters in the game in a solid matchup.
Value: For value here, we can look to guys like Yuli Gurriel at $3.3k, Chas McCormick at $2.7k, or Martin Maldonado at $2.8k. These guys probably won’t get you guys in the teens in terms of points, but they’ll put together solid ABs and let you afford the expensive pieces.
While I think that there are better spots in MLB DFS for offense, like the Yankees in this game, I want to make sure to get in a stack that has nice value up and down the lineup and also in a solid spot. Domingo German has now made 2 starts this season, one really bad and one pretty good. With a matchup vs. a good Mariners lineup, I think he gets lit up as he did against the Astros. Throughout his career, German has been worse against lefties as they have a .456 slugging % and a .320 wOBA. This Mariners lineup has the potential to be 6 lefties deep tonight with Rodriguez on the IL.
Core and Value: With this stack, I’m going to use guys like Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford, and Carlos Santana if you decided to fade Pete Alonso. All 4 guys are under $4k tonight, with Frazier and Santana being under $3k. Again, there are better spots for offense tonight, but we need value. These 4 guys will provide value in what I think is a solid matchup. German throws a ton of sinkers to lefties, more than 87% of the time. Against righty sinkers, Winker has solid numbers. He has a .358 ISO and a .446 wOBA. Crawford also has solid numbers, with a .397 wOBA.
Other Stacks I like tonight will be the Yankees vs. Marco Gonzales, Royals vs. Michael Kopech, and the Padres vs. Antonio Senzatela.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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There are 10 games in front of us for the afternoon and the top end is very appealing, including one pitcher who appears to be priced to the point where it feels like it’s going to be a trap. There are also a couple of punts that look like they could put up a big score so let’s get to it in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/31!
We’ll get to Shane O’Mac in a minute but it’s almost impossible to ignore Cease at home against the A’s with his strikeout upside. His K rate overall is up to 33.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 15.9%, and he backs that up with a 43.5% ground ball rate. Oakland remains in the bottom five of OPS, ISO, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ and the slider for Cease has a whiff rate of 47.5% on the season while Oakland is dead last against the slider. When I say dead last, I mean they have a FanGraphs rating of -53.7 and the Nationals are 29th and they are at -26.4. The A’s are last by a mile and the K rate s even higher for Cease at home at 36.5% with a 2.59 xFIP. This seems too easy.
Speaking of too easy, everyone s carving up the Pittsburgh lineup at this point and it’s not like Nola isn’t having an excellent year as it is. I’m going to take a stab and say Cease and Nola are going to be the cash pair on DK since we don’t have to jam in Coors bats and Nola follows up Falter and Suarez, who both had eight strikeouts a piece these past two games. Nola is much more accomplished than those two are and his K rate is 28% with a 2.97 xFIP, a 2.94 FIP, and an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. The Bucs typically play a lot of lefty hitters and that plays into the strength of Nola as they have a .260 wOBA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 3.30 FIP. Nola has also been better on the road with a 2.30 ERA and a 2.74 xFIP and Pittsburgh is a wildly easy target, especially when Nola is under $10,000.
Maybe manager Kevin Cash will allow Shane O’Mac to actually pitch in this game, after yanking him at 81 (!) pitches in the last game and it was possible for him to make it to the finish line. I was pretty happy to see the Rays immediately lose the lead after McClanahan left but we’re onto Sunday. Really, the biggest question is if he can get enough strikeouts to pay off the highest salary on the slate because Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball when facing a lefty pitcher over the course of the season. They are in the bottom four of OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ but the K rate is barely over 21%. Maybe it doesn’t matter because he’s rolled up 10 against the Blue Jays, 15 in back-to-back starts against the Yankees and nine against St. Louis. McClanahan is holding the right side to a .214 wOBA and a 36.4% K rate, so if he’s not going to be highly rostered, he’s an easy standout for a GPP target as it’s easy to see him scoring the most points any time he pitches.
Honorable Mention
It’s hard to say Max Fried has a very viable shot at matching the strikeout upside of the other three aces today and my lean is certainly going there. While Fried is an excellent pitcher, his K rate is barely over 23% and that’s a significant gap. Arizona helps with a 23% K rate and they are in the bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories, so Fried makes a lot of sense in a vacuum. It’s more of compared to his colleagues where he falls a little short.
The past two starts have been just average but Walker grabs a matchup against the Marlins and in the past 30 days, they are 26th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS while they also rank 29th in ISO. It’s not helping that they are missing four of their most important hitters and Walker just got this offense for almost 27 DK points on the 10th of this month with seven strikeouts and seven shutout innings. He has a 3.78 xFIP, a 48.6% ground ball rate, and the K rate is fine at 19.5% but it tends to flash more in the easier matchups. Walker is also better against the right side of the plate with a .253 wOBA and a 1.01 WHIP but the K rate is higher against the left side, so a balanced lineup would actually be pretty nice.
It helps that Ashby found success in his past start but it also helps that Boston has fallen off a cliff in the past 30 days. When they’ve faced a lefty in that span, they are 22nd in OBP, 16th in OPS, 17th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, and they have been striking out 27.1% of the time. Ashby has been pretty unlucky so far because his 4.38 EA is way over his 3.15 xFIP and his K rate is over a 27% rate. I still have concerns because his road splits have been rough, as are the metrics as a starter with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.84 ERA. His slider has a 40.5% whiff rate and a wOBA under .300 allowed so there is a path here, but the volatility has to be noted.
Honorable Mention
I wanted to write up Pablo Lopez but his name is swirling in rumors. If he starts, I’m willing to take some shots with him as he’s coming off an 11-strikeout masterpiece against the Reds and he has a 25.5% K rate, a 3.03 ERA, and a 3.44 xFIP. Let’s see how things go through the morning and figure it out from there.
Much like Ashby, this is a volatile pick but Lodolo has a strong matchup for him to show off his 30.5% K rate and just like Ashby, the 4.73 ERA is out of whack with the 3.40 xFIP. Lodolo has only pitched 32.1 innings and the BABIP has been a ridiculous .432 BABIP and that can’t sustain. Baltimore has a K rate over 25% and that is the third-highest this season against the left side and they are no higher than 19th in OPS, ISO, or wOBA on the season. Lodolo is likely using the sinker a little too much at 58.9% since it has a .401 wOBA allowed and his curve at least has a 51.5% whiff rate. The swinging-strike rate is just under 12% this year and the right side of the plate has a 3.33 xFIP and the BABIP climbs to .451. Things have to correct at some point and today could be the start of that situation.
Honorable Mention
I’ve not played him a whole lot but it’s tough to not at least consider Jordan Montgomery given the Royals on the other side here. Kansas City is no higher than 15th in any of our categories but they also have the lowest K rate in baseball at 18.1%. That’s pretty much why I would rather take a stab on Lodolo in this salary range because Montgomery is only at 20.2% himself to go along with a 3.63 xFIP, 3.50 ERA, and just a 1.08 WHIP.
Merrill Kelly – I almost always prefer him when he’s not $9,000 and even though he’s better when facing a righty with a 3.14 FIP, a 3.85 xFIP, and a 20.6% K rate, this is a tough matchup and I like four other aces more than him.
George Kirby – On a slate like this, I’m not exactly willing to go after the Astros here although Kirby has pitched very well through his 69.1 innings. The xFIP is 3.47, and the K rate is 22.7%, but the Astros are in the top 10 in all of our offensive categories with a K rate under 21%. That’s a tough road to go on today.
Reds
Brewers
Yankees
Mariners
Cardinals
Nationals
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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