It is a very crowded last tonight and we get the return of Jacob deGrom, who has missed the entire season to this point but he will not make the article. DraftKings has priced him as if he hasn’t missed virtually any time so that’s going to be difficult to get there. Still, there are plenty of quality options among the 27 other pitchers to choose from in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/2 to find green screens!
We may not be able to play deGrom in his first game back but we can continue the trend of picking on the Buccos, and we can do it with an ace for the second straight game. In three of his past four games, he’s whiffed double-digit hitters and the last time he didn’t throw at least 100 pitches was June 15th. Burnes is flirting with 33% for the K rate and the trio of xFIP/FIP/ERA is all under 2.95 so there isn’t a whole lot to pick on for the surface numbers. Once we look at the splits, the left side is the weaker side against Burnes with a .234 wOBA, a 33.6% K rate, a 2.34 xFIP, and a 0.87 WHIP. The Pirates play a ton of lefties generally and they are 29th against the cutter and 16th against the curve. Those are the two most important pitches for Burnes as they both have a whiff rate of at least 31% and they have accounted for 112 strikeouts. There is really not that much of a comparison between Burnes and deGrom tonight, at least on paper.
He’s been on a tear lately and while the surface numbers on the season don’t look superb, he’s been pitching like that and his K rate has jumped over 30% in 34 innings pitched in July. The ERA was 3.18 but the wOBA allowed was only .262 and the xFIP was the best it has been all year at 2.79. It definitely helps that Darvish is at home too because he’s been two different pitchers, with San Diego being very friendly to him. He has a 1.94 ERA at home with a .223 wOBA allowed and a 0.76 WHIP along with a 26% K rate, and now you have the Colorado offense on the road against righties. They rank 27th in every offensive category and Darvish throws any pitch he wants at any point he wants. Burnes is sure to be the cash play, but Darvish is a very interesting GPP play.
I’m hesitant with McKenzie at this salary but the splits would tell us the D-Backs might be among the best matchups he could draw. He’s holding lefties to a .236 wOBA, a .158 average, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 29.2% K rate. With the D-Backs being super-lefty heavy, that’s a good start for him and they also drop to under 50% for the fly-ball rate, an accomplishment for McKenzie. I wish he’d throw the fastball less but Arizona is just 16th against that pitch and it does have 39 strikeouts. However, the curve has more at 47 and that has been far and away the best-performing pitch. It carries a 44.5% whiff rate and a .148 wOBA allowed, but he’s only throwing it 20.6% of the time. The good news is that the D-Backs are 28th against that one so this truly is an undeniable spot, even at a high salary.
Honorable Mention
Playing Kevin Gausman really depends on how many lineups you play because I don’t think I’d include him in a rotation in a 3-max setting. Since the start of June, his ERA is over 4.00 and the wOBA allowed is over .350 to go along with a K rate of around 25%. Sure, we can point out that the xFIP s under 3.50 so he’s been unlucky and the Rays’ offense is 20th or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA with a 24.7% K rate. Gausman has just seen wild swings in production so, in my view, I’d want at least 10-20 lineups to get some exposure because he absolutely has a ceiling.
There is a small part of me that says this ridiculous salary could be a trap. Strider scored 25 DK points against this Philly offense in the last start and his salary dropped $400 on DK. There’s just not an explanation for that. Now, my slight fear comes in from seeing the same offense twice in a row, because we know that can have a negative effect on the pitcher. It’s also a little concerning that he uses the fastball SO much at 69.1% but at the same time, it has 79 strikeouts, a 28.1% whiff rate, and a .260 wOBA allowed. At the end of the day, even with some warts, Strider is not priced anything close to correct with a 36.4% K rate as a starter to go along with a 2.58 xFIP and a .246 wOBA allowed. I’m still very in at this salary and neither side has a wOBA over .260 against him and both sides are over a 33.5% K rate.
The Houston pitching staff outside of Verlander has been a little tough to predict but Javier has a good shot at a strong start tonight with the Red Sox in a bit of a state of upheaval. Javier has a 3.67 xFIP which is just fine but his fly-ball rate of 58.5% will almost always keep that high. At least Javier brings a K rate of 33.6% to the table and last night’s Red Sox lineup had five righties. We want as many as we can get since Javier has a .260 wOBA, 41.6% K rate, and a 2.85 xFIP against that side of the plate. The biggest fear with him is he tries to strike everyone out, and it’s not hard to see Boston working the pitch count in a hurry. They are only 26th in walk rate but Javier can be tough to watch when his control isn’t that great.
Well, this is one way to test just how bad the Angels currently are. Irvin is honestly not playing that poorly lately with four of his past five starts scoring over 20 DK points and the overall profile isn’t terrible, although it doesn’t stand out either. He’s got to love the matchup as the Angels are 28th in wRC+ and OPS, 27th in wOBA and ISO, and 26th in OBP on the season to go with a K rate of 24.5%. Over the past 30 days, the K rate has jumped to 26.7% and Iron does have a K rate of 17%. I don’t love the fact his 3.07 ERA is so far apart from the 4.31 xFIP but he’s held both sides of the plate under a .290 wOBA. I wouldn’t say he has a standout pitch as no offering has a whiff rate over 27.5% and even then, his curve is only being used at 18.1%. Nothing jumps out but the Angels have been so putrid and Irving is very cheap given the recent performance and though 34 innings in July have produced a 1.85 ERA, a .187 wOBA allowed, and a 2.47 FIP. The 4.27 xFIP is obviously concerning but I’m willing to roll the dice here.
I won’t blame anyone if they pass on him but $6,800 is some kind of salary for Giolito. He seemed like he had figured something out prior to the break but he got hammered by Cleveland and then struggled in Colorado. Maybe I’m just being too stubborn with Giolito but in this house, we believe in the metrics and they are pretty kind to Giolito when we get below the surface. The one that really stands out s the xFIP of 3.75 compared to his 5.14 ERA and the .349 BABIP is killing him. That’s roughly .50 points higher than an average pitcher and his HR/FB rate of 16.1% is the highest it has been since 2017. The K rate has dipped but is still 25.8% and his fly-ball rate actually dropped from the 2021 season. His change and slider have really been the culprits as they both had wOBA’s allowed under .285 last year but they have spiked to over .365 this season. Kansas City is no higher than 15th against those two pitches but there is a risk here, needless to say. The Royals played five righties last night and that’s been the issue since they have a 2.17 HR/9, a 20.5% K rate, and a 5.75 FIP. If he’s chalk, I’ll be terrified but something has to give for Giolito…I think.
Honorable Mention
In a world where everything goes right, I don’t think we would see Noah Syndergaard score more points than Giolito. He also may not even make this starts as he’s been thrown around in trade rumors but if he does, he brings a 4.27 xFIP, an 18.9% K rate, and a 32.7% hard-hit rate to the table. The Oakland offense is in the bottom five in everything, but they can be pesky at times and Syndergaard can be had by stolen bases. He doesn’t hold runners on at all (don’t bet it until after the trade deadline, but Ramon Laureano and Seth Brown lead the team with 10 and seven swipes) but Oakland is also dead last in OBP. Syndergaard can work his way to over 15 DK points in this start to be sure.
Jacob deGrom – I simply can’t pay the highest salary on the slate for him when he’s not hit even 70 pitches in his rehab starts. The Mets are (rightfully) going to treat him with kid gloves and he’s simply too expensive for me.
Jameson Taillon – He’s another one that has been tougher to get right and his last four starts have two that are over 24 DK and two that have combined for 2.3 DK points. That’s….quite the roller coaster and I have a very difficult time clicking his name ahead of Strider since Strider has a K rate roughly 16% higher.
Adam Wainwright – I never get the guy right but we need to see the Cubs lineup that he’s facing. There are strong odds it will be weaker than it was in their last game, and Waino could take advantage. His xFIP is 3.82 and the K rate is 19.6% and the HR/9 is 0.95. It also doesn’t hurt that Yadier Molina is expected back tonight, so stay tuned on Waino.
Brewers
Mets
Padres (LHH especially)
Rangers/Orioles Game Stack
Dodgers
Braves
Astros
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and we have a solid 9-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. On the hill, we have one of my favorite pitchers to attack throwing against my favorite team. We know what’s about to go down.
Always make sure to read Adam’s Starting Rotation when setting your lineup. It’s hands down the best pitching article in the MLB DFS business.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
When I looked at today’s slate of games, I got a little teary-eyed. I saw that Patrick Corbin was facing off against my New York Mets. The Mets are surging while Patrick Corbin is struggling. Corbin couldn’t make it out of the first inning in his last outing vs. the Dodgers, giving up 6 ER in just two-thirds of an innings. This game was not an anomaly as he’s now struggled mightily in 4 straight games. Over his last 4 games, Corbin has given up 20 ER.
He’s going to have an extremely hard time taming the beast that is the Mets, winners of 6 straight games and now 27 games over .500. While the Mets have only been about league average vs. lefties this season, they have enough firepower in this lineup to do some damage against Corbin. With Corbin, we really want to focus on righties as they have a .521 slugging % and a .387 wOBA. That said, lefties aren’t too far behind as they still have a slugging % of .486 and a wOBA of .375.
Core: My core with the Mets tonight will be Pete Alonso and Starling Marte. Both of these guys have been by far the Mets’ best two hitters vs. southpaws. Aided by an insanely high BABIP of .419, Marte has the best numbers of any Mets player this year vs. lefties. He’s sporting a .557 slugging % and a .381 OBP. Corbin throws his sinker more than 45% of the time to righties. Marte has had a decent amount of success against these from lefties, with a .399 wOBA.
Now onto Pete Alonso. This is a match made in heaven for the Polar Bear. In a small sample size, Alonso has absolutely crushed lefty sinkers. He has a .750 ISO and a .663 wOBA. This has led to monster career numbers vs. Corbin, with 4 homers in 33 AB and a 1.276 OPS.
Secondary Pieces: My next two pieces here will be Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha. Brandon Nimmo has surprisingly been very solid vs. lefties this year. He’s actually tied for the team lead with 21 wRC. On the year he has an impressive .782 OPS vs. lefties. He’s coming into this one with hits in 6 of his last 7 games. He’s not a core to my Mets stack though as he’s quite expensive tonight, at $5.1k on DK. I also really love Mark Canha here.
Value: My two value pieces for the Mets will be two guys at the back of the order. J.D. Davis is someone that profiles really well against Corbin. He has a .468 wOBA vs. lefty sinkers and has a long history of crushing Corbin. In 35 AB, he has 4 homers and a 1.127 OPS. He’s also just $2.1k on DK tonight. He’ll make paying up for Alonso a little easier to stomach. Thomas Nido is also a cheapy getting the platoon advantage. He’s just $2.4k on DK and will be in a lineup that is expected to score a lot of runs tonight.
Since coming back from the IL, Nathan Eovaldi has now thrown 3 clunkers. He’s allowed 16 ER in just 13 innings of work. While some of that is exaggerated by a 9 ER outing vs. the Blue Jays, he’s still been giving up just a ton of contact while not striking many out. Tonight he’ll have to run into a solid Houston Astros lineup. Their lineup continues to be one of the top lineups in the game, having scored fourth most runs over the last week. They have very few holes for Eovaldi to try to take advantage and it will be a struggle for him from the get-go.
With Eovaldi, we’re going to have a slight lean to the righties. While the power numbers have been about equal for righties and lefties vs. Eovaldi, righties get on base way more and have hit for a higher average. That’s led to a wOBA nearly 50 points higher for righties.
Core: My core tonight for the Astros will be Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. Altuve is coming into this game playing some great baseball. He had a solid last couple of days against the Mariners, with 3 hits in 7 AB, a couple of walks, a couple of runs scored, and an RBI. He’s a solid spot to do some damage vs. Eovaldi tonight.
Bregman is another Astros primed for a big day. Over the last month, he’s been really solid vs. righties. He has a .255 ISO vs. them and a .366 wOBA. Before his 0-4 yesterday, he had been swinging a hot stick with hits in 4 straight and very full stat lines in all of them. If you had to pick between the core picks due to price, I’d lean to Bregman since he’s priced just a bit cheaper.
Secondary Pieces: While they aren’t in my core for the Astros tonight, they’re pretty close. Both Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should smash tonight. Alvarez is coming into this with 2 poor games in a row, but right before that, he had been crushing every pitcher he faced. Over the last month, Alvarez has a .500 ISO vs. righties and a .510 wOBA. He’s one of the best hitters in the game in a solid matchup.
Value: For value here, we can look to guys like Yuli Gurriel at $3.3k, Chas McCormick at $2.7k, or Martin Maldonado at $2.8k. These guys probably won’t get you guys in the teens in terms of points, but they’ll put together solid ABs and let you afford the expensive pieces.
While I think that there are better spots in MLB DFS for offense, like the Yankees in this game, I want to make sure to get in a stack that has nice value up and down the lineup and also in a solid spot. Domingo German has now made 2 starts this season, one really bad and one pretty good. With a matchup vs. a good Mariners lineup, I think he gets lit up as he did against the Astros. Throughout his career, German has been worse against lefties as they have a .456 slugging % and a .320 wOBA. This Mariners lineup has the potential to be 6 lefties deep tonight with Rodriguez on the IL.
Core and Value: With this stack, I’m going to use guys like Jesse Winker, Adam Frazier, J.P. Crawford, and Carlos Santana if you decided to fade Pete Alonso. All 4 guys are under $4k tonight, with Frazier and Santana being under $3k. Again, there are better spots for offense tonight, but we need value. These 4 guys will provide value in what I think is a solid matchup. German throws a ton of sinkers to lefties, more than 87% of the time. Against righty sinkers, Winker has solid numbers. He has a .358 ISO and a .446 wOBA. Crawford also has solid numbers, with a .397 wOBA.
Other Stacks I like tonight will be the Yankees vs. Marco Gonzales, Royals vs. Michael Kopech, and the Padres vs. Antonio Senzatela.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
There are 10 games in front of us for the afternoon and the top end is very appealing, including one pitcher who appears to be priced to the point where it feels like it’s going to be a trap. There are also a couple of punts that look like they could put up a big score so let’s get to it in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/31!
We’ll get to Shane O’Mac in a minute but it’s almost impossible to ignore Cease at home against the A’s with his strikeout upside. His K rate overall is up to 33.4% and the swinging-strike rate is 15.9%, and he backs that up with a 43.5% ground ball rate. Oakland remains in the bottom five of OPS, ISO, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ and the slider for Cease has a whiff rate of 47.5% on the season while Oakland is dead last against the slider. When I say dead last, I mean they have a FanGraphs rating of -53.7 and the Nationals are 29th and they are at -26.4. The A’s are last by a mile and the K rate s even higher for Cease at home at 36.5% with a 2.59 xFIP. This seems too easy.
Speaking of too easy, everyone s carving up the Pittsburgh lineup at this point and it’s not like Nola isn’t having an excellent year as it is. I’m going to take a stab and say Cease and Nola are going to be the cash pair on DK since we don’t have to jam in Coors bats and Nola follows up Falter and Suarez, who both had eight strikeouts a piece these past two games. Nola is much more accomplished than those two are and his K rate is 28% with a 2.97 xFIP, a 2.94 FIP, and an 11.8% swinging-strike rate. The Bucs typically play a lot of lefty hitters and that plays into the strength of Nola as they have a .260 wOBA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 3.30 FIP. Nola has also been better on the road with a 2.30 ERA and a 2.74 xFIP and Pittsburgh is a wildly easy target, especially when Nola is under $10,000.
Maybe manager Kevin Cash will allow Shane O’Mac to actually pitch in this game, after yanking him at 81 (!) pitches in the last game and it was possible for him to make it to the finish line. I was pretty happy to see the Rays immediately lose the lead after McClanahan left but we’re onto Sunday. Really, the biggest question is if he can get enough strikeouts to pay off the highest salary on the slate because Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball when facing a lefty pitcher over the course of the season. They are in the bottom four of OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ but the K rate is barely over 21%. Maybe it doesn’t matter because he’s rolled up 10 against the Blue Jays, 15 in back-to-back starts against the Yankees and nine against St. Louis. McClanahan is holding the right side to a .214 wOBA and a 36.4% K rate, so if he’s not going to be highly rostered, he’s an easy standout for a GPP target as it’s easy to see him scoring the most points any time he pitches.
Honorable Mention
It’s hard to say Max Fried has a very viable shot at matching the strikeout upside of the other three aces today and my lean is certainly going there. While Fried is an excellent pitcher, his K rate is barely over 23% and that’s a significant gap. Arizona helps with a 23% K rate and they are in the bottom 10 in all of our offensive categories, so Fried makes a lot of sense in a vacuum. It’s more of compared to his colleagues where he falls a little short.
The past two starts have been just average but Walker grabs a matchup against the Marlins and in the past 30 days, they are 26th in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS while they also rank 29th in ISO. It’s not helping that they are missing four of their most important hitters and Walker just got this offense for almost 27 DK points on the 10th of this month with seven strikeouts and seven shutout innings. He has a 3.78 xFIP, a 48.6% ground ball rate, and the K rate is fine at 19.5% but it tends to flash more in the easier matchups. Walker is also better against the right side of the plate with a .253 wOBA and a 1.01 WHIP but the K rate is higher against the left side, so a balanced lineup would actually be pretty nice.
It helps that Ashby found success in his past start but it also helps that Boston has fallen off a cliff in the past 30 days. When they’ve faced a lefty in that span, they are 22nd in OBP, 16th in OPS, 17th in wOBA, 19th in wRC+, and they have been striking out 27.1% of the time. Ashby has been pretty unlucky so far because his 4.38 EA is way over his 3.15 xFIP and his K rate is over a 27% rate. I still have concerns because his road splits have been rough, as are the metrics as a starter with a 4.49 FIP and a 4.84 ERA. His slider has a 40.5% whiff rate and a wOBA under .300 allowed so there is a path here, but the volatility has to be noted.
Honorable Mention
I wanted to write up Pablo Lopez but his name is swirling in rumors. If he starts, I’m willing to take some shots with him as he’s coming off an 11-strikeout masterpiece against the Reds and he has a 25.5% K rate, a 3.03 ERA, and a 3.44 xFIP. Let’s see how things go through the morning and figure it out from there.
Much like Ashby, this is a volatile pick but Lodolo has a strong matchup for him to show off his 30.5% K rate and just like Ashby, the 4.73 ERA is out of whack with the 3.40 xFIP. Lodolo has only pitched 32.1 innings and the BABIP has been a ridiculous .432 BABIP and that can’t sustain. Baltimore has a K rate over 25% and that is the third-highest this season against the left side and they are no higher than 19th in OPS, ISO, or wOBA on the season. Lodolo is likely using the sinker a little too much at 58.9% since it has a .401 wOBA allowed and his curve at least has a 51.5% whiff rate. The swinging-strike rate is just under 12% this year and the right side of the plate has a 3.33 xFIP and the BABIP climbs to .451. Things have to correct at some point and today could be the start of that situation.
Honorable Mention
I’ve not played him a whole lot but it’s tough to not at least consider Jordan Montgomery given the Royals on the other side here. Kansas City is no higher than 15th in any of our categories but they also have the lowest K rate in baseball at 18.1%. That’s pretty much why I would rather take a stab on Lodolo in this salary range because Montgomery is only at 20.2% himself to go along with a 3.63 xFIP, 3.50 ERA, and just a 1.08 WHIP.
Merrill Kelly – I almost always prefer him when he’s not $9,000 and even though he’s better when facing a righty with a 3.14 FIP, a 3.85 xFIP, and a 20.6% K rate, this is a tough matchup and I like four other aces more than him.
George Kirby – On a slate like this, I’m not exactly willing to go after the Astros here although Kirby has pitched very well through his 69.1 innings. The xFIP is 3.47, and the K rate is 22.7%, but the Astros are in the top 10 in all of our offensive categories with a K rate under 21%. That’s a tough road to go on today.
Reds
Brewers
Yankees
Mariners
Cardinals
Nationals
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We’ve got almost a full boat tonight with 13 games on tap and it’s not the deepest pitching slate we’ll ever have. It doesn’t help that we miss Sandy Alcantara because nobody wants to include the 6:40 games normally but we do have some top-shelf options. Let’s talk about them and the other pitchers we like in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 7/29 to find the green!
Cole wasn’t spectacular in his last start but for some reason, the Orioles have given him some issues this season. It hasn’t killed his overall profile with a 2.78 xFIP, a 3.09 ERA, a K rate over 32%, and a swinging-strike rate of 14.1%. His four-seam/slider combo has a whiff rate of at least 31.6% and has 130 of his 153 strikeouts on the season, while the Royals are 17th against the fastball. Cole has delighted in pitching in New York this season through 64.2 innings with a 2.09 ERA, a .235 wOBA allowed, a WHP of 0.80, and the K rate jumps up to 35.5%. Even the FIP/xFIP are below 2.30 and he’s just been a total stud at home. With the Royals no longer having their normal offense after trading Andrew Benintendi to the Yanks, it’s very easy to love Cole.
I’ve been pretty lukewarm on Verlander for the season and I do prefer Cole, but Verlander just keeps shoving almost every time he’s on the mound. His 1.86 ERA has certainly had some luck playing not it with a 3.34 xFIP and the fly-ball rate is over 40% as well. To be fair, the hard-hit rate is under 30% and the K rate is still over 26% so it’s not like he has no upside at all. This is going to be the sixth time he’s faced Seattle and he has thrown 34.2 innings against them this year with a total of 38 strikeouts and 10 earned runs. Six of those 10 runs came in one start so he’s pretty much smacked Seattle around this year and neither side of the plate is over a .260 wOBA and both whiff at least 24.4% of the time. Lastly, Seattle is 23rd against the slider and that’s been the best strikeout pitch for Verlander with 57 strikeouts and a 35.5% whiff rate so he’s well in play.
He’s made five starts since coming back from an injury and in four of them, he’s hit at least eight strikeouts, gone at least five innings, and even up five earned runs. In those four starts, his xFIP has not been higher than 2.86 and it seems like his rehab has solved whatever was plaguing him at the start of the season. Boston is down and out right now with the offense struggling and his K rate overall is up to 30.6% and the WHIP is down to 1.16. They’ve been playing five lefties lately and if they do again, that’s an advantage for Woodruff with a .244 wOBA, a 40.7% K rate, and a 1.53 FIP. His changeup is the weapon when he faces a lefty and it has a 56.4% whiff rate and the slider is the go-to against righties and that has a 44.2% whiff rate. It sets up the four-seam which has a .271 wOBA allowed and 46 strikeouts, leaving Woodruff as an excellent option.
He’s going to face quite a few lefties, which is not usually a good thing for Manoah since he has a .300 wOBA, a 17% K rate, and a 4.59 xFIP. However, this is the Detroit lineup we’re talking about and when they face righty pitching, they have the fifth-highest K rate at 24.3% and are dead last in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. I’m perfectly willing to go after Manoah here with the quality of hitters he’s facing and he’s in the 97th percentile of hard-hit rate. Of his 106 strikeouts, 83 have come from the four-seam and slider and every one of his pitches has a wOBA under .300. When he does get a righty, the K rate jumps over 29% and the WHIP is 0.71 so he is still a strong option against one of the weakest options around.
Given the fact that Perez is facing the Angels, I’m interested to play him even though his 3.72 xFIP doesn’t really match the 2.59 ERA. The xFIP isn’t something that I’m really wearing because Perez has to have some regression from his 6.4% HR/FB rate so far and he gets enough strikeouts at 20.8%. In the past 30 days, the Angels have been 27th or worse in all of our major categories and their K rate has been over 27% against lefty pitching. Perez has held the right side of the plate to a .289 wOBA, a 21.3% K rate, and a 3.33 FIP and his changeup has been excellent. The wOBA allowed is down to .242 and it has a 32.5% whiff rate, although his sinker and cutter both have more strikeouts. Until the Angels force me to stop, I’m going after them with pitching.
You kind of have to ride the lightning if you’re going to pitch Snell because the downside is always there, but he’s putting together some strong starts. He’s scored over 20 points against the Mets, Dodgers, and Giants in three of his past four starts and it’s really just his fastball that is causing him pain. It has allowed a .430 wOBA and a .319 average but his slider and curve (39% of the arsenal) are incredible. They are under a .185 wOBA allowed and they both have a whiff rate over 43% and it is scary to see Minnesota rank fifth against the fastball. We also know that Minnesota can disappear, so this is one of the most volatile picks on the board. He is striking out the right side 28.9% of the time and the FIP is only 3.54, so he’s had some bad luck as well this season.
Honorable Mention
I truly don’t mind Shane Bieber against the Rays but at his salary, I just feel like it’s not difficult to get to Manoah or honestly even Woodruff. Bieber has a 3.29 xFIP to go along with his 24.3% K rate and he hasn’t been super consistent this season. However, this Rays lineup is far away from what we expected this season so the clear path for him is there to succeed.
Am I nuts to keep on playing Cobb? Perhaps, but if we believe in the numbers for every other pitcher, we have little choice but to buy them for Cobb as well. I’ll not have any issues throwing his last start out the window since it was the Dodgers and his xFIP is 2.98 and the FIP is 2.94, wildly out of place against his 4.26 ERA. His K rate is fine at 22.8% to go along with the 6.8% walk rate and sooner than later, the .332 BABIP should come down a bit. The Cubs have the 12th highest K rate against righties this season and they are only 22nd in ISO although they can be pesky at points. This is a team that needs to continue to be monitored around the deadline but Cobb’s splitter and curve both have a whiff rate over 28%. The splitter is the biggest key for him with a wOBA of .245 and it has 30 strikeouts so he has potential, even if it’s been obscured through most of the season. We saw Alex Wood was very popular yesterday so that could carry over into today.
I can already tell that I might have an unhealthy amount of Lynn since he’s under $7,000, he gets the A’s offense that on the year is 29th or 30th in OPS, OBP, wRC+, wOBA, and they strike out 24% of the time. Lynn also has a 3.83 xFIP against a 6.43 ERA, which is far more palatable than anything else. His K rate is only 21.8% but he’s not typically this cheap either and plenty of metrics would say that he’s been seriously unlucky through his 42 innings. The velocity is down just a bit for him but at the same time, his four-seam is still getting a 37.8% whiff rate and only has allowed a .280 wOBA. Lynn has a solid ground ball rate at 42.4% and even the swinging-strike rate is 11.7%, just 0.3% lower than last season. Lefties are still a struggle with a .393 wOBA and only a 15.3% K rate but the A’s simply isn’t a very good offense. There is still a risk for Lynn but he is too cheap to ignore to at least have some lineups with him.
Kyle Wright – Arizona is boom or bust for an offense but they are super lefty-heavy and that’s the weaker side for Wright. With him sporting a .300 wOBA, a 3.77 xFIP, and a K rate of 24%, this isn’t the best spot for him. While he did grab eight strikeouts against the Angels, that’s the Angels and his K rate dropped so much from May moving forward.
Joe Ryan – He could prove me wrong against a very average Padres offense (for now, rumors were swirling about Juan Soto) and Ryan has a 2.89 ERA which looks great. Then you see the 4.63 xFIP and get worried, not to mention the K rate is only 22.3%. If there are a bunch of lefties for San Diego, that could hurt Ryan with a 15.9% K rate, a 5.57 xFIP, and a 4.61 FIP.
Jose Quintana/Bailey Falter – I sort of like both of these pitchers and we can start with Quintana. He’s been very solid for the Buccos this season with a 3.70 ERA and 3.77 xFIP with only a 0.65 HR/9 and a 45.1% ground ball rate to go along with a 20.7%. Philly has fallen back toward the middle of the pack in our offensive categories but they are still a talented offense. Also, Quintana has a .313 wOBA and only an 18.6% K rate when facing a righty so that’s a concern.
For Falter, I really wanted to attack the weakness the Pirates have against lefties. They are no higher than 18th in any of the categories we talk about and they whiff 26% of the time, and that has climbed lately. However, Falter sports a 4.93 xFIP across 33 innings so far this year with a 5.18 ERA and a 49% fly-ball rate. I may wind up using a couple of cheaper Pirates where I need them tonight.
Dodgers (chalk again)
Brewers
Cardinals
Braves
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rangers
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