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Mike Evans

Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Bears

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $11,100, FD

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $15,000, FD $14,000) $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Allen Robinson (DK $15,900, FD $11,500)

The chalk – and what should probably be HEAVY chalk – is Tom Brady, in part because he’s Tom Brady and he’s the GOAT, and also because the Bucs are lacking their top WR in Chris Godwin (out), Mike Evans is questionable and Scotty Miller is on the probable side of questionable, the plan being Evans will test his ankle in pre-game workouts to determine if he plays.

If he spreads it around and the Bucs attack what has been a relatively solid pass Bears defense through the air, he’ll still accrue enough points to justify having him as CPT. I think he makes more sense from a GPP perspective as a flex, but in cash games we can almost guarantee he’ll find his way to the top in most of the builds.

My favorite pivot might just be Ronald Jones – though we know he’s a risky GPP play given his history of highly dynamic fantasy scoring. The Bucs will most certainly give him touches, and they’ve been more creative with their offense since Brady came aboard. I’m less interested in targeting one particular Bucs WR given the injuries, but they’re certainly all viable flex plays.

Nick Foles is certainly a risk as well but could be the contrarian play that breaks the slate. Unlike Brady’s he’s got a stable of talented, capable and healthy pass catchers in WR Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and TE Jimmy Graham, and the Bears have been using David Montgomery is little bit in the passing game. If there’s a piece of the Bucs defense I don’t trust, it’s the secondary, but their front seven is one of the best in football.

As usual, we could see kickers come into play if drives are stymied as they get into the red zone tonight, but there’s no need to use them in the top spot. Fitting the main stars isn’t all that difficult given the softer pricing for this showdown.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to take a bunch of Bears against this tough Bucs defense. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll have builds that toss in the occasional Bucs DST as a flex, but the trio of Foles/Graham/Robinson has as much upside as Brady/Gronk/Evans given the injuries plaguing the Bucs.

DO: Consider Mike Evans if he’s active. Even at 80% he’s an excellent red zone target that Brady loves.

DON’T: Be afraid to leave money on the table. Low-cost options like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and even Montgomery have high-enough upside that they could have a bigger impact the higher salary guys you could squeeze in in certain builds.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Tom Brady
Ronald Jones
Nick Foles
Allen Robinson
Mike Evans (if active)
Jimmy Graham
Scotty Miller
Anthony Miller
David Montgomery
Cameron Brate
Ryan Succop
Bucs DST
Rob Gronkowski
Cairo Santos
K’Shawn Vaughn
Cordarrelle Patterson
Darnell Mooney (questionable)
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Bears DST
Javon Wims

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 14 Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. We have a limited slate as three games on Thanksgiving with quality receivers make DFS interesting. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 14 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

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Week 14 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Stefon Diggs, DET vs MIN

DK ($7,600) FD ($8,000)

Diggs is coming off a relatively quiet game on Monday against the Seahawks. He had seven catches for 143 yards when these two teams met earlier in this season. With the expectation that Adam Theilen will be playing and drawing the attention of the defense, expect a big game from Diggs.

Jamison Crowder, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($5,300) FD ($6,000)

It didn’t work last week since I was one week early on Crowder. The entire Jets offense didn’t do much but this is different. This is their revenge game against the Dolphins and Crowder had a solid game five weeks ago. Crowder went for eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. The combination of a revenge factor, weak corners, and a tanking team makes Jamison Crowder an appealing option to me.

Week 14 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

James Washington, PIT @ ARI

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,700)

Arizona is the worst team at stopping the passing attack and with Juju Smith-Schuster dealing with a concussion, James Washington will be the biggest target. Last week, Washington had four catches for 111 yards and a touchdown. I have no reason to use that as a baseline for him this upcoming week. Ducky Hodges needs to look for Washington and find out if Arizona will make an adjustment.

Mike Evans, TB @ JAX

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)

Loading up on the best receiver on the slate not facing an elite defense. The Indianapolis Colts are struggling as they sit third in their division and are looking up for a playoff spot. Evans has the speed to beat Indy’s secondary and has proved it this season with the second-most receiving yards this season. Expect a 100-yard game with a touchdown out of him.

Week 14 Wide Receiver Fades

Marquise Brown, BAL @ BUF

DK ($4,700) FD ($5,500)

The weather conditions in this game will be a concern for me. Brown is the number one receiver for the Ravens this season. Buffalo is playing with house money and is coming off a huge win on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys. Giving the Bills an extended week of preparation, weather issues and Bills feeling they have something to prove makes me back off of Marquise Brown this week.

DJ Moore, CAR @ ATL

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,100)

This one is simple to me as the Carolina Panthers are dealing with a lot of changes as Ron Rivera was fired mid-week. That alone shakes up an entire gameplan and means Christian McCaffrey will get a lot of burns this week as the Panthers figure out what’s next. I’m fading any receiver from the Panthers this week.

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs and Jamison Crowder combine for over 22.5 receptions.

All three of these players have been featured in this article so check out why each of them should do well. I expect each receiver to get at least seven catches and that would get them to 21 total. Evans should get double-digit receptions and that would surpass the goal.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 13 Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

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If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 13 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Chris Godwin, TB @ JAX

DK ($7,700) FD ($8,200)

Chris Godwin is behind just Michael Thomas for receiving yards this season. Godwin has the ability to beat a defense with his nine touchdown receptions on the year as well. He’s coming off a great game where he had 184 yards and two touchdowns. I think Jameis Winston will have enough time to deliver some passes to his receivers against Jacksonville so expect Godwin to have a solid game.

Jamison Crowder, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($5,600) FD ($6,300)

This might come as a shock but I think Crowder has a real chance of being a big-time player in this game. He leads the Jets in almost every important receiving category outside of touchdowns. Going up against a Cincinnati Bengals team that has the best interest in losing this game to almost guarantee the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, Crowder should have a big day. Expect around seven targets and 65 yards with a touchdown.

Week 13 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Cooper Kupp, LAR @ ARI

DK ($7,100) FD ($7,800)

Arizona is the worst team at stopping the passing attack and Cooper Kupp is the most productive receiver for the Rams. This has the chance to be a huge game for Kupp after two duds. His price isn’t too high and will have lineups focused on him and Jared Goff. Expect around seven catches and possibly a trip to the end zone.

Mike Evans, TB @ JAX

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)

Loading up on the two best wide receivers that Tampa has to offer. Mike Thomas, Godwin and Evans are the only receivers with at least 1,000 receiving yards so one of the two Bucs receivers should have a great game. Jacksonville doesn’t have the secondary to stop both guys so one will have a solid game. Evans just needs to have a few more receptions than he has the past few weeks.

Week 13 Wide Receiver Fades

DeAndre Hopkins, NE vs HOU

DK ($7,600) FD ($8,300)

DeAndre Hopkins is a Top Five wide receiver in the NFL but I am not going against one of the NFL laws: Bill Belichick eliminates the opposing number one option. Hopkins is just that and for that reason alone, I am fading Hopkins this week.

Jarvis Landry

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,400)

The Cleveland Browns are heading into an emotional game for Pittsburgh as this is their retribution for what happened a few weeks ago between these teams. Especially with this game being in Pittsburgh and the possibility of Odell Beckham being limited makes Landry not as huge of an option as he should be. Pittsburgh also has a solid passing defense as they give up just 217.2 yards a game.

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Chris Godwin, Davante Adams and Mike Evans over 2.5 touchdowns

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a huge passing offense and going up against Jacksonville, I believe Jameis Winston will be good enough to throw at least one touchdown to either Godwin or Evans. Davante Adams is currently injured with a toe injury but I expect he will play against the Giants. Aaron Rodgers will almost guarantee a touchdown to Adams as the Giants don’t have enough to stop him. He did just grab his first touchdown of the season last week so they can build on that.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 12 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

written by

Week 12 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($8,200 FD)

I feel safe with Russell Wilson this week. He is the only viable dual-threat quarterback with a positive matchup this Sunday. Wilson is one of the frontrunners for MVP and he will have another chance to impress against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. He, of course, can also scramble and keep the offense alive by running downfield and hopefully getting into the end zone. I think he is being overlooked. I will take him as my top spend up in NFL DFS this week.

Stud Pivot: Matt Ryan – He should have to throw it a lot here. It is difficult to run on the Tampa defensive front and the Falcons are down to their third string RB.

Stud Pivot 2: Drew Brees

Mid QB: Carson Wentz ($7,300 FD)

Another guy that is going under the radar in a potential shootout. We love his tight ends this week and he should finally have a healthy core of wide receivers. Miles Sanders is getting worked into the offense more and he too can catch passes. He is a very sneaky Mid-tier NFL DFS quarterback.

Mid QB pivots in Order: Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill (if you play any of these mid-tier guys you need to pair him with a WR or TE on the same team)

Running Backs

Stud Running Back: Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 FD)

I am not worried about any matchup for CMC. He is a better play on DK because of the PPR structure but if you can fit him on FanDuel you won’t regret it.

Stud RB: Alvin Kamara ($8,300 FD)

He gets one of my favorite rush defenses to pick on in the Carolina Panthers. They have given up five more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the league. My concerns are he is very chalky and “splitting” carries with Lat Murray which scares me. However, Kamara is far superior in the passing game which makes him more elite on DraftKings. I will have my fair share of Karma on both sites but not be going over 50% on him. I will also have some pivot teams with Latavius Murray in large GPP contests.

Stud Pivots in Order: Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley

Mid RB: Jaylen Samuels ($6,900 FD)

If JuJu and Johnson are out Samuels will not only be the probable starter at RB, he will also be treated as a WR2. He goes against the Bengals who have given up the second-most touchdowns to the running backs this season. With the Steelers so thin on offense Samuels should see plenty of opportunity on Sunday to exceed his NFL DFS salary. I like him better on DraftKings because of his pass-catching ability.

Pivots: Bo Scarbrough (next best option in the tier, not loving it though)

Value RB: Latavius Murray, Kareem Hunt, Derrius Guice

Note: Nick Chubb has a great matchup against the Dolphins, he can certainly have a breakout game, but so can OBJ, or Landry, or Hunt. Trying to pin down which Brown to go with is difficult if not impossible. It seems safe to say you want a least one of these guys in your lineup Sunday. I am going to have some Chubb lines and a few Kareem Hunt at his cheap price and wait for a garbage-time touchdown. Hunt will be in a few of my milli maker lines, not my main/cash or single entries.

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Mike Evans ($8,000 FD)

I am taking a stand on Mike Evans this week. He is my favorite high priced receiver with price and ownership factored in. He goes against the Falcons, who everyone suddenly wants to quit targeting. I know they have looked good the past two weeks but I think there are other reasons besides they have just suddenly become elite. The Saints overlooked them after a bye and we all saw Kyle Allen crumble against them last week. Was that poor QB play or good defense? Mike Evan has traditionally gone off against the Falcons and I know he is getting double-digit targets here. I am going with him at what I expect to be low NFL DFS ownership.

Stud Pivots: Julio Jones, Michael Thomas (both great options), Julian Edelman (DraftKings)

Mid WR: DK Metcalf ($6,700 FD)

Tyler Lockett will probably play, but he isn’t going to be 100%. The Seahawks are going to need to lean on their next best receiver against a poor Earles defense. Metcalf is the 7th highest targeted wideout in the red zone this season. He will be on my main NFL DFS lineup and I am going to do my best to pair him up with Russell Wilson.

Mid WR Pivots: OBJ, Calvin Ridley, Jamison Crowder

Value WR: Terry McLaurin, Russell Gage, James Washington (if JuJu and Johnson out), Josh Gordon (if Lockett isn’t 100%)

Tight End

Ryan Griffin ($5,600 FD)

I have been on him for weeks and everyone is finally catching up. Griffin is in another smash spot this week against the 30th ranked Oakland Raiders. He has four touchdowns in five weeks. He is still cheap enough to let you fit your stud backs and receivers.

Tight End Pivots: Zach Ertz, Jacob Hollister, Dallas Goedert, Ben Watson

Defense

Steelers
Saints
Bills
Punt: Redskins

I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 12 Wide Receiver DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The slate of wide receivers is incredible as we are approaching teams clinching playoff spots. There are some spots where you can afford some expensive receivers and some cheaper options with a good upside. Let’s dive into the best wideouts for Cash Games, GPP and who you should avoid with our Week 12 Wide Receiver DFS Picks.

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If you’d like to see more of my DFS work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 12 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Michael Thomas, CAR vs NO

DK ($9,200) FD ($9,300)

Michael Thomas is leading the league in targets, receptions, receiving yards per game and receiving yards. The Panthers do not have any defensive backs that can stop him. Expect another big game from Michael Thomas with double-digit targets and around 100 yards and possibly a touchdown or two.

D.K. Metcalf, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,700)

Recently, Metcalf has shown what he is able to do with a 100-yard game against the Buccaneers. Going up against a depleted secondary of the Philadelphia Eagles could be a blessing for Metcalf as he can get around five catches for 80 yards and a touchdown. Russell Wilson will have a nice game and Metcalf will be the main reason why.

Week 12 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Jarvis Landry, MIA vs CLE

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,900)

This should be the game where Jarvis Landry and Baker Mayfield have a huge game together. Going up against the tanking Miami Dolphins helps as they allow 12.6 yards a catch and haven given up 42 plays of at least 20 yards. Landry will get the second cornerback and should tear it up more than OBJ will.

Mike Evans, TB @ ATL

DK ($7,300) FD ($8,000)

Evans is averaging just under 100 yards a game and is second in receiving yards this season. He also has seven touchdowns and could increase that total against a subpar Atlanta defense. Atlanta gives up 276 yards per game through the air and Mike Evans could benefit the most from that. Who do they have that can stop Mike Evans?

Week 12 Wide Receiver Fades

Amari Cooper, DAL @ NE

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,700)

Amari Cooper is Top Five in receiving yards and yards per game. However, he is dealing with the New England Patriots’ defense. Let alone that, Bill Belichick takes away an opponent’s best DFS option and that would be Cooper. New England allows just 152.6 yards a game through the air and will gameplan against Amari Cooper. Cooper will definitely take a hit in production and force the Cowboys to figure out something else.

Allen Robinson, NYG vs CHI

DK ($6,500) FD ($7,500)

Allen Robinson is going to have an okay game against a less-than-stellar Giants defense. This is not about his skill not being there, instead of who is throwing him the ball. I don’t trust Mitchell Trubisky at all and with the Giants coming off their bye week, expect the gameplan to be to shut down Robinson in the passing game.

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas and Mike Evans over 25.5 receptions

Michael Thomas should go out and get eight catches with most of the targets heading his way. Jarvis Landry should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins, who are actively trying to lose, will have their second-best corner on him. Mike Evans should get around seven catches as well against the Atlanta Falcons in a huge passing game. If Landry can get early confidence with Baker Mayfield, this should be a lock.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 11 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

written by

Week 11 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,600 FD)

Lamar Jackson looks unstoppable right now. The dual threat QB has the safest NFL DFS floor on the slate. He faces the 24th ranked defense (against the QB) in what should be a high scoring game. He is averaging 98 yards rushing in his last four games. He has ran for five touchdowns in the same time frame. Those are stud RB numbers. Not only is he running, he is also throwing the ball 15-20 times per game. The Houston Texans are ranked 31st against the pass. This all adds up to Jackson being another fantastic spend up at quarterback this week. Faders are going to not have a good time.

Stud Pivots: Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott

I really want to pay up at QB this week.

Value QB: Josh Allen ($7,800 FD)

Josh Allen has a history of owning the Dolphins. He too is a dual threat QB going against a poor defense in Miami. In the past two games he has run for three touchdowns and thrown for 426 yards. I like the upside he again presents in NFL DFS this week. Look for him to get another 60 yards on the ground, 200+ through the air and hit John Brown for a touchdown, or two.

Value QB pivot: Derek Carr

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 FD)

Clear number one guy. Just get him in your lineup or regret it immediately at 1:01 PM EST on 11/17.

Stud Pivots: Ezekiel Elliott

Mid RB: Josh Jacobs ($8,000 FD)

The Bengals are the easiest team to run on in the NFL. They have given up a league worst 173 yards per game. Wow. They are also tied for the second most touchdowns given up on the season with 12. Josh Jacobs is a dual threat RB who is playing the bell cow role for Oakland. In three of his last five games he has gone over 100 yards. He has five touchdowns in the same time frame. He carries a questionable tag by his name right now but he is almost certain to play. If he plays the full 60 minutes he gets in the end zone at least once and has another 100 yards on the ground.

Pivots: Le’Veon Bell

Value RB Brian Hill ($5,900)

We are going to keep targeting the Panthers rush defense in NFL DFS. Last week they gave up three touchdowns to Aaron Jones, the week before two to Derick Henry and the week before that three to Tevin Coleman. In total, they have given up 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. That is five more than the next worst team! Brain Hill is going to step in for the injured Devonte Freeman and get around 20 touches and a couple targets through the air. Last week he caught one in the end zone and this week he is going to run one.

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Michael Thomas ($8,700 FD)

If you can find a way to afford him, he is your number one guy. Every week Thomas keeps producing. He has double digit targets in every game except two this year. He has yet to have a game without double digit FD points and it is Week 11. Tampa is one of the three best teams to target with wide receivers (Arizona and Oakland are the other two). They have given up the third most touchdowns through the air (22) and are allowing 298 yards per game. Thomas is a fail proof WR1 this week.

Stud Pivots: Julian Edelman, Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper

Mid WR: DJ Moore ($6,000 FD)

The Carolina Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. The Falcons were able to somehow keep the Saints out of the end zone last week which is not what NFL DFS players were expecting. It would appear the Falcons made some improvements during their bye week, but I am not buying it. They just do not have the personel to turn the corner so quick. I am chalking up that Saints loss to “not respecting the opponent” in a game the Falcons were most likely treating like a Super Bowl against their rivals. The Dirty Birds have still give up 19 receiving TD’s this season, and that is including a bye week and last Sunday’s miracle. DJ Moore has averaged 10 targets a game the last month. In that time span he has over 12 FD points in every game except one. This is all without a single touchdown. He has as good of a chance as he is going to get this season to snap the no TD streak. I love him at the price.

Mid WR Pivots in Order: John Brown, Jamison Crowder, Curtis Samuel, Tyrell Williams, Zach Pascal

Value WR: Calvin Ridley ($5,500 FD)

He is just one of those guys who is constantly underpriced for his ceiling. There is no Austin Hooper and no Devonte Freeman this week which means even more opportunity than usual for Ridley.

Value Pivot: Deebo Samuel ($5,600 FD) He will get a huge boost if Emmanuel Sanders misses, I am not interested in him if Sanders plays.

Value Pivot: Phillip Dorsett ($5,300 FD) An uber sneaky WR Punt this week when everyone is focused on Sanu. Dorsett has a nice connection with Brady and is way underpriced going against the 25th worst NFL DFS pass defense.

Tight End

Ryan Dwelley ($4,900 FD)

George Kittle is out and his backup Ryan Dwelley gets the best matchup on the board for one of the cheapest prices. If you are new here, my rule is pretty simple, target the Arizona Cardinals with tight ends. They are ranked 32nd in NFL DFS and have given up a touchdown virtually every week to the position. The 49ers are also likely without Emmanuel Sanders opening up even more opportunity for Dwelley to match or exceed his season best seven targets last game.

Tight End Pivots: Mark Andrews, Jared Cook, Ryan Griffin

Defense (order updated)

49ers
Patriots
Bills
Oakland
Jets

I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 11 Wide Receiver DFS Picks: Thomas & Friends Pt. 2

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Our Week 9 article was nearly perfect, so it was going to be hard to live up to that in Week 10. While Michael Thomas and DeVante Adams predictably did well, we got disappointing games from most of our GPP options. That’s going to happen every once in a while, and I feel much better about this week’s slate of games. With that in mind, let’s get into our Week 11 wide receiver DFS picks.

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If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

Week 11 Wide Receiver Cash Game Plays

Michael Thomas, NO at TB

DK ($9,900) FD ($9,000)

Thomas was our most successful pick last week and it’s impossible to fade this guy at this point. We’re talking about a dude who’s scored at least 16.4 DK points in every game this season while leading all wide receivers with 25.2 fantasy points per game. That’s downright ridiculous production and an even more unbelievable floor. The reason for that is because of his targets and catch rate. Not only does he lead the league with 11.1 targets per game, but he also leads the NFL with an 83 percent catch rate. That has to be terrifying for a Buccaneers secondary who’s surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Don’t fade MT in cash games!

Mike Evans, TB vs. NO

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,200)

On the other side of the ball, we have to love Evans. This guy has been a Top-3 wide receiver since he was dealing with an illness the first two weeks and it’s clear that he’s the one making corners sick now. Since Week 3, Evans has collected 48 catches for 835 yards and seven TDs on 76 targets. Those are all Top-5 at his position and it’s obvious at this point that he’s the superior option to Chris Godwin. This should be a high-scoring game when looking at the 52-point total and Evans 233 receiving yards against this team last season indicates that he likes the matchup too.

Week 11 Wide Receiver GPP Plays

Marquise Brown, BAL vs. HOU

DK ($5,600) FD ($5,600)

Downtown Brown is literally the definition of a GPP wide receiver. While he’s been missing some games due to injury recently, he looked fully healthy in Week 10. That’s what we’re aiming for with a speedster like this, finishing that game with four catches for 80 yards and a TD. The usage numbers are definitely there too, with Brown attaining 26 percent of his team’s air yards and 18.3 percent of his team’s targets. That’s big news against a Houston secondary who owns a 28^th OPRK against opposing WRs this season. This might be one of the few times that Baltimore won’t be running at will with a big lead too, as we’re looking at a game with a 3.5-point spread and 50-point total.

Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,200) FD ($5,900)

It’s so crazy that these DFS sites continue to price Boyd so low. He currently ranks eighth among all wide receivers in total targets, while collecting a 26 percent team target share and 30 percent of his team’s air yards. Those are some of the best marks in football and his 57 catches for 598 yards aren’t shabby either. That monstrous workload is very enticing in a matchup like this, with the Raiders surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to WRs. In addition, Cincy should have to throw the ball a lot, entering this matchup as a 10.5-point underdog.

Dede Westbrook, JAX at IND

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,400)

Westbrook has been dealing with some injuries over recent weeks and it’s lowered his price to numbers that we can’t pass up. Before getting injured in Week 8, Westbrook averaged 8.6 targets over his previous five games. That led to him averaging five catches for 70 yards per game. That’s really all we can ask for from such a cheap player and we haven’t even discussed the implementation of Nick Foles into the lineup. Foles absolutely loves Westbrook and he actually peppered him with over half of the team’s targets in the preseason when both guys were on the field.

Week 11 Wide Receiver Punt Plays

Auden Tate, CIN at OAK

DK ($4,200) FD ($5,300)

This is another case of a player seeing way too many targets to be priced this cheaply. Not only has Tate received at least six targets in seven-straight games, but he’s also averaging 8.3 targets per game in that span. That’s led to him providing 26 percent of his team’s air yards and those rates are way too high for a player in this price range. While the production hasn’t necessarily been there, it could be against a Raiders secondary who surrenders the third-most passing yards in the NFL in addition to the most fantasy points to WRs.

Ted Ginn Jr. NO at TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($5,200)

Ginn is the punt play of all punt plays. He was actually a favorite of many people last week but we’re going to capitalize on that disappointment and use him here at much lower ownership. All the things that made him a good play last week go for this week. Ginn gets to face a Tampa defense who’s surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL while owning a 31^st OPRK against opposing wide receivers. That tasty matchup is extremely enticing for this passing game, as we anticipate Drew Brees having a monster day. If he does, Ginn could land one of those deep balls, as his 55 receptions of 20+ yards and 19 catches of 40+ yards since 2013 are some of the best marks in the NFL.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Hopkins, Thomas, and Jones Over 23.5 Receptions

These are arguably the three-best WRs in the NFL, with two of the leading the league in receptions. I expect two of these guys to get 10 catches, which would mean we only need four from the last one.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS Week 10 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

written by

Week 10 in the NFL is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,600 FD)

Smash spot for Lamar Jackson, who is coming off yet another impressive showing against the New England Patriots on Monday night. He can run on the Bengals or throw on them. Either one works. I have two hesitations. The first is it’s a short week for Baltimore. This might not be a big deal at all. In fact it could help the game stay a little closer with one less day of prep. The larger concern is that the Bengals are starting their rookie QB and he could turn it over a few times. If the Ravens defense is scoring that means Lamar isn’t. Even with those concerns Lamar has a very high floor and very high ceiling. He could put up 30 points here and no one would be surprised. If you play Lamar you are hoping the Bengals find a way to keep this one close.

Stud Pivots: Drew Brees

Value Quarterback: Jameis Winston ($7,900 FD)

The Cardinals have given up a league high 24 touchdowns to wide receivers the season. They now have Patrick Peterson back but he can’t cover everyone. Winston possesses the most lethal duo of wide receivers the past month in the NFL. Every week Mike Evans or Chris Godwin goes crazy. Winston has at least one touchdown in every game this season and if he isn’t completely off his game he should thrive once again here. O.J. Howard will be back this week and he also has Cameron Brate at TE to throw to. Although the secret is out, we still like to target the Cardinals TE coverage. Winston should easily get over 300 yards here and a minimum two touchdowns.

Value QB Pivots: Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($9,700 FD)

I don’t think we need much explanation here. Every time you don’t play CMC you regret it. He is the entire offense. He runs, he catches and he gets in the end zone. Green Bay has the 27th worst defense against fantasy running backs. Easy play. Lock.

Stud Pivots: Saquon Barkley

Mid RB: Aaron Jones ($7,600 FD)

Target the Carolina Panthers with running backs. They have given up a league high 14 rushing touchdowns on the year. The next worse team (Seattle) has give up 12. I targeted them last week with Derrick Henry and the week before when Tevin Coleman had a career game. Jones has two touchdown upside here and I would be shocked if he didn’t get 100 all-purpose yards and at least one touchdown. Don’t let him burning you last week get you off him here. Let all the scared money fade him.

Pivots: Devin Singletary

Update Note: Connor is out again. Love Jaylen Samuels this week, more on DK.

Note: Don’t play Kareem Hunt on FanDuel. We are better than that. On DK ok maybe..he is cheap, but I have almost no interest as of now.

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Michael Thomas ($8,700 FD)

Drew Brees is back and should feed Thomas against the rival Atlanta Falcons who can not figure out how to stop the bleeding. They are bad defensively and the Saints should win the game rather easily. Thomas has not been targeted under 10 times since September 29th. He is priced as the highest wide receiver because he is the most likely to tear the slate apart. The Falcons have been prepping on how to stop him for two weeks but that doesn’t scare me off at all. There is going to be nothing they can do except hope they can keep up on offense. Thomas has over 100 yards in three of his last four game and three touchdowns in the same time frame. His lowest fantasy outing this entire season is 13.9 FanDuel points. It doesn’t get much safer.

Stud Pivots: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp

Mid WR: Odell Beckham Jr ($6,900 FD)

Come on, this is way too cheap for OBJ. I know he hasn’t performed as a fantasy WR1 this season but the skill set is undeniable. Baker looks pretty terrible but even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. The Bills defense looks good on paper but let’t not forget their very easy schedule so far. OBJ has not gotten a touchdown in six consecutive games so I will bet he snaps the streak here. The last time he played in New York he went for 161 and a touchdown. This is a boom or bust play. I like all the guys listed below if you don’t want to live dangerously….

Mid WR Pivots: Robert Woods, Golden Tate (if Shepard out)

Value WR: Christian Kirk ($5,700 FD)

He goes against the Tampa Bay defense that is ranked 32nd against defending the pass. Kirk is healthy now and is Murray’s deep threat. He had a poor game last week against the top ranked San Fransisco defense and the Cardinals only attempted 24 passes. That should change this week. This looks like a high scoring game that should stay close and Murray will finally get that deep ball he has been looking for with Kirk.

Value WR Pivots: Parker (like more than Kirk now),Zach Pascal, Josh Reynolds

Tight End

Gerald Everett ($5,700 FD)

With Cooks not playing Everett is going to be Jared Goff’s third best option to throw too on the field. He has a nice matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who struggle to cover the tight end. In the past month Everett has been targeted 10 or more times in half of the games. The Steelers recently acquired Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is turning out to be everything they hoped and more. His presence will limit Goff’s comfort with throwing it to his receivers down the field, which in turn will allow more checkdowns for Everett. I am willing to take him as my top tight end with price and upside considered.

Tight End Pivots: Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Ryan Griffin

Defense (order updated)

Ravens
Colts
Bills
Saints
Lions

Punt: Dolphins

I will tweet out when there are updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

MONKEYKNIFEFIGHT.COM PICK – Play this Pick here and get 100 percent bonus!

This one is so easy. Winston and Murray both have great matchups against the opposing defenses. Winston regularly throws over 300 and Murray now has a healthy receiving core and the newly acquired Kenyan Drake to throw too. Making a bigger bet than usual on this one.

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi and BCW take a look ahead at Week 10 and the potential impact players to consider. The two also discuss how to handle teams with a pair of top end WRs while resetting two age-old questions that includes a WKRP in Cincinnati take.

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NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

The NFL DFS Week 10 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW looks at how the changing weather will impact DFS usage, especially at QB and WR. The focus then goes to Week 10, where injuries across the board at RB makes the use of Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey vital. Next, the pair look at QBs who have sleeper potential along with the ones to avoid. Finally, the duo focuses on WRs and TEs and point out a number of solid plays.

Thank you for listening to the NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms.

5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Eight

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Week Seven was another fun and profitable week. I was really hoping for Davante Adams to return to action so I could use the Packers as my main stack, but as you saw in last week's Stick's Stacks, I was only going to go overweight on Rodgers and the Packers if Adams was in. Although I was way more u...

5 years ago 0 comments

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