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Mike Evans as the Most Explosive WR on the Board to Dominate DFS Lineups this weekend!

Jason Mezrahi, Dave Gloeckner & Tony Cutillo
written by Jason Mezrahi, Dave Gloeckner & Tony Cutillo

Can #mikeevans be the Top WR on this week’s #DFS slate? Join Jason, Dave, and Judge Jigsaw to hear all their favorite plays for playoff weekend!

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NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 7 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

We are now more than third of the way through the 2022 NFL season and what a weird season it’s been so far.  The Buccaneers are a mess while the Giants are up to 6-1.  Matt Ryan has officially been benched while PJ Walker is thriving.   

There were some big injuries this past weekend, none more impactful than Breece Hall going down with an ACL tear.  That led the Jets to trading for James Robinson last night.  Will we finally see the capabilities of the running back on a more consistent basis?  Maybe, maybe not!

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

The base line stats for Mike Evans were pretty impressive this weekend.  He led the league in targets with 15 and caught 9 of them for 96 yards.  It was the one pass that he didn’t catch that all Buccaneers fan will remember though.  He dropped a perfect pass from Brady in the first quarter that would have went for a TD. 

That play could have drastically changed the outcome of this one.  Evans’ 15 targets and 9 catches were season-highs.  The Bucs will have a short turnaround as they face an equally disappointing Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. 

After sitting out in Week 6 with an injury, the Chris Olave show continued in Week 7 with an impressive game.  Olave had just his second 100 yard receiving game of his career thanks to a career-high 14 targets.  The Saints rookie is putting together an impressive first season.  He also ran a career high 49 routes, 10 more than he had run in any game this season.  Up next for the Saints will be a matchup with the Raiders, a team that has been about league average vs. Wide Receivers. 

There was no rust involved with DeAndre Hopkins.  After sitting out the first 6 weeks with a suspension, Hopkins returned this week to 14 targets.  He was able to turn those 14 targets into 10 catches and 103 receiving yards.  The only thing he did wrong in this game was that he failed to find the End Zone.  The Hopkins show will continue in Week 8 with a favorable matchup vs. the Minnesota Vikings.

Running Back Targets

The Austin Ekeler cheat code has been released.  For the third time in the last 4 weeks, Ekeler had a multiple touchdown game.  This week he had one on the ground and one through the air.  His 12 targets led all running backs this week, as did his 12 receptions.   Yes, he caught every ball thrown his way.  He’ll be tutoring Mike Evans on the proper way to catch a ball.  Ekeler is on an epic run right now.  The only thing that will be able to slow him down will be the bye that his team has in week 8.

Running back Aaron Jones did the majority of his damage this weekend in the air and not on the ground.  Jones had the second most targets of any running back this week with 10.  He was able to coral 9 of those passes into 53 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.  The 10 targets and 9 catches were by far the most he’s had all season.  He’ll have to do more though if the Packers ever expect to win another game.  He’ll get that chance in Week 8 vs. Buffalo, an extremely tough matchup.   

Tight End Targets

This was a weird week for tight ends as not a single tight end was targeted more than 9 times.  We typically have a few in double digits, not this week though.  The star of the show this week for tight ends was George Kittle of the 49ers.  He had 9 targets and was able to catch 6 of them for 98 yards and 1 TD.  This was by Kittles’ best performance of the year.  He’ll look to keep up the momentum in Week 8 vs. the Rams, a team coming off a bye in Week 7.

Quarterback Target Share

Of Davis Mills 40 passes this weekend, more than 40% of them went to his running backs.  Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead combined for 13 of the passes that Mills threw. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum we have Tom Brady.  Brady threw the ball 48 times this weekend, with 75% of them going to his receivers.  28 of those passes went to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  While Evans finished with 96 yards, he’ll probably be losing some sleep over that one that he dropped in the first quarter. 

Running Back Touches

The workload for Derrick Henry continues to increase week after week.  After bottoming out in Week 2 with just 13 carries, Derrick Henry reached 30 for the first time this season.  He turned those 30 carries into a season high 128 yards.  We are seeing the return of the work horse we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the last few years.  Week 8 will be a matchup vs. a Texans team that has given up the fourth most rushing yards in the league. 

Can anyone, and I mean anyone stop the New York Giants?  After being a joke for the last few years, the Giants are now 6-1.  That has mostly been due to the performance of their former first round pick Saquon Barkley.  For the second consecutive week, Barkley rushed more than 20 times.  His 24 carries in Week 7 were the second most he’s had this season and he reached 100 yards rushing for the third time this year.  A healthy Barkley is good for the NFL and the Giants. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

What a weird offensive scheme the Ravens went out with this week.  Gus Edwards made his return after tearing his ACL prior to the 2021 season.  That led the Ravens to go with a run dominant offense.  They ran the ball more on more than 70% of their plays this weekend.  Normal target monster Mark Andrews saw just 2 targets and Lamar Jackson threw the ball just 16 times. 

Conversely, we have the Los Angeles Chargers.  The ran a pass heavy offense this weekend, with nearly 80% of their plays being through the air.  Just Herbert ended up with 51 passes to their 15 runs.  That’s what the game calls for though when you’re down most of the game but quite a bit.

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 7 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 7 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

We are now more than third of the way through the 2022 NFL season and what a weird season it’s been so far.  The Buccaneers are a mess while the Giants are up to 6-1.  Matt Ryan has officially been benched while PJ Walker is thriving.   

There were some big injuries this past weekend, none more impactful than Breece Hall going down with an ACL tear.  That led the Jets to trading for James Robinson last night.  Will we finally see the capabilities of the running back on a more consistent basis?  Maybe, maybe not!

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

The base line stats for Mike Evans were pretty impressive this weekend.  He led the league in targets with 15 and caught 9 of them for 96 yards.  It was the one pass that he didn’t catch that all Buccaneers fan will remember though.  He dropped a perfect pass from Brady in the first quarter that would have went for a TD. 

That play could have drastically changed the outcome of this one.  Evans’ 15 targets and 9 catches were season-highs.  The Bucs will have a short turnaround as they face an equally disappointing Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. 

After sitting out in Week 6 with an injury, the Chris Olave show continued in Week 7 with an impressive game.  Olave had just his second 100 yard receiving game of his career thanks to a career-high 14 targets.  The Saints rookie is putting together an impressive first season.  He also ran a career high 49 routes, 10 more than he had run in any game this season.  Up next for the Saints will be a matchup with the Raiders, a team that has been about league average vs. Wide Receivers. 

There was no rust involved with DeAndre Hopkins.  After sitting out the first 6 weeks with a suspension, Hopkins returned this week to 14 targets.  He was able to turn those 14 targets into 10 catches and 103 receiving yards.  The only thing he did wrong in this game was that he failed to find the End Zone.  The Hopkins show will continue in Week 8 with a favorable matchup vs. the Minnesota Vikings.

Running Back Targets

The Austin Ekeler cheat code has been released.  For the third time in the last 4 weeks, Ekeler had a multiple touchdown game.  This week he had one on the ground and one through the air.  His 12 targets led all running backs this week, as did his 12 receptions.   Yes, he caught every ball thrown his way.  He’ll be tutoring Mike Evans on the proper way to catch a ball.  Ekeler is on an epic run right now.  The only thing that will be able to slow him down will be the bye that his team has in week 8.

Running back Aaron Jones did the majority of his damage this weekend in the air and not on the ground.  Jones had the second most targets of any running back this week with 10.  He was able to coral 9 of those passes into 53 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.  The 10 targets and 9 catches were by far the most he’s had all season.  He’ll have to do more though if the Packers ever expect to win another game.  He’ll get that chance in Week 8 vs. Buffalo, an extremely tough matchup.   

Tight End Targets

This was a weird week for tight ends as not a single tight end was targeted more than 9 times.  We typically have a few in double digits, not this week though.  The star of the show this week for tight ends was George Kittle of the 49ers.  He had 9 targets and was able to catch 6 of them for 98 yards and 1 TD.  This was by Kittles’ best performance of the year.  He’ll look to keep up the momentum in Week 8 vs. the Rams, a team coming off a bye in Week 7.

Quarterback Target Share

Of Davis Mills 40 passes this weekend, more than 40% of them went to his running backs.  Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead combined for 13 of the passes that Mills threw. 

On the opposite end of the spectrum we have Tom Brady.  Brady threw the ball 48 times this weekend, with 75% of them going to his receivers.  28 of those passes went to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.  While Evans finished with 96 yards, he’ll probably be losing some sleep over that one that he dropped in the first quarter. 

Running Back Touches

The workload for Derrick Henry continues to increase week after week.  After bottoming out in Week 2 with just 13 carries, Derrick Henry reached 30 for the first time this season.  He turned those 30 carries into a season high 128 yards.  We are seeing the return of the work horse we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the last few years.  Week 8 will be a matchup vs. a Texans team that has given up the fourth most rushing yards in the league. 

Can anyone, and I mean anyone stop the New York Giants?  After being a joke for the last few years, the Giants are now 6-1.  That has mostly been due to the performance of their former first round pick Saquon Barkley.  For the second consecutive week, Barkley rushed more than 20 times.  His 24 carries in Week 7 were the second most he’s had this season and he reached 100 yards rushing for the third time this year.  A healthy Barkley is good for the NFL and the Giants. 

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

What a weird offensive scheme the Ravens went out with this week.  Gus Edwards made his return after tearing his ACL prior to the 2021 season.  That led the Ravens to go with a run dominant offense.  They ran the ball more on more than 70% of their plays this weekend.  Normal target monster Mark Andrews saw just 2 targets and Lamar Jackson threw the ball just 16 times. 

Conversely, we have the Los Angeles Chargers.  The ran a pass heavy offense this weekend, with nearly 80% of their plays being through the air.  Just Herbert ended up with 51 passes to their 15 runs.  That’s what the game calls for though when you’re down most of the game but quite a bit.

Make sure to check out all of our NFL articles here.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Week 6 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bucs at Eagles

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 6 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.Let’s get to the game!Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Bucs

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Mike Evans
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Ronald Jones
  6. Chris Godwin
  7. Michael Gallup
  8. Ezekiel Elliott
  9. Amari Cooper
  10.  Bucs DST
  11.  Antonio Brown
  12.  Leonard Fournette
  13.  Rob Gronkowski
  14.  Blake Jarwin
  15.  Giovani Bernard
  16.  Tony Pollard
  17.  O.J. Howard
  18.  Ryan Succop
  19.  Greg Zuerlein
  20.  Cowboys DST
  21.  Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 4th of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

I am going to be honest, I do not enjoy having to parse through the Bucs offense in any way shape or form. The 2020 Super Bowl Champions just have a wealth of talent to choose from and Tom Brady is the single best QB of all time when it comes to finding the open target wherever it may be. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard. Do you see why this is a nightmare from a fantasy perspective?

Defensively the Buccaneers have been a consistent top three against the run and pass for several years now with Todd Bowles at the helm and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change. Up front they have, Ndamukong Suh, Vea Vita, an Will Gholston, Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White at linebacker, and Jamel Dean, Antione Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead in the secondary. If you guys spot a gap in their defense please tell me, I could use the help.

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

In order to be better at drafting your fantasy teams it is key to recognize your biases and I have a clear bias against Evans. Every year I target him he has underperformed against his ADP and every year I stay clear he does not. This may be the first year that bias will not play a roll for me. I just happen to be telling folks to let the Bucs be someone elses headache. In 2020 he had 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over half of those yards (517 of them) and 31 of those 70 grabs came in only four games. That inconsistency will only be worse with Antonio Brown fully involved in the offense and Chris Godwin not dealing with a finger injury.

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Godwin is one of the top two or three slot receivers in the game right now and even hampered with injuries through most of the year he finished 2020 with 840 yards and seven touchdowns. If he played for anyone else he would be a top 25 overall selection but he suffers the same issues as the rest of the Bucs offense. There is too much depth. He only exceeded 100 yards once through the entire season and that was week 16 against the Falcons secondary that was largely practice squad players and some guys who were signed from the local flag football team in Atlanta.

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Tom Brady is likely going to be my only target on this entire team unless we have some ADP changes. Figuring out out which guy will have a big year of the 8 options is nearly impossible so just do yourself a favor and pick the guy who is throwing the ball. You know who Tom Brady is and you either think he can still play and you draft him. Or, you think father time will catch up and you do not. It is really that simple.

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

If you were to force me to pick a running back for the Bucs RoJo would be my choice. You are not going to get any kind of tangible ADP discount, I just think he is a better back. His yards per carry was over a full yard better than Fournette (5.1 compared to 3.8) and both Fournette and Jones are decent receivers out of the backfield. The downside (apart from depth) is that Bruce Arians will bench Jones for entire games out of nowhere because he missed a block or was late to a practice. It is so bad and so random it feels personal. In 2019 during one of Winston’s multiple five turnover games, he missed a read. Winston got a pass while Jones was almost completely removed from the offense and chastised publicly. I am just going to pass unless it is best ball.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

The one thing that we kind of had some consistency on with the Bucs backfield in 2020 was that Fournette was going to get more work than Jones in passing down situations. That is no longer a given. Brady went out and personally recruited Giovanni Bernard in the offseason to presumably fill the “James White” role. If you did not know any better you would assume that it was Bill Belichick who was the main driver of the maddening three and four running back by committee backfields. This is actually a preference that Brady shares wholeheartedly and he has gone out of his way to recreate this in Tampa. This is a nightmare of a backfield now so have fun pulling out your hair if you get in on it.

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

If you were to tell me that I HAD to draft a receiver from this Bucs squad this season the only one I would feel remotely comfortable with at their current ADP is AB. With a full offseason under his belt with Tampa and a quiet-ish offseason in what feels like an eternity for him, he is the only Buc who I think has a chance to exceed their value. in only four starts last year the seven-time pro bowl receiver caught 45 of his 62 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception were about two yards less than his career average (10.7 in 2020 compared to 13.3 over his career) but I think that has more to do with him getting familiar with the offense and getting himself into game shape. Year two with the Bucs should have a full playbook available to him and plenty of opportunities to exceed 1,000 yards and catch anywhere between 6-8 touchdowns. For a player that you can get as your fourth wide receiver in the 10th round he is the one receiver on the Bucs roster you can afford to take a shot on.

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

I do not want this to be misinterpreted so let me be clear, I am not saying they are in the same league right now but how many people are aware that Gronk and Kelce are only six months apart in terms of age? How about how he only has one more season under his belt? Sure, injuries have slowed him down but these two guys were neck and neck for years in terms of fantasy stat lines. He played a full 16 games last year and caught 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns (that’s TE 8 in PPR) and you can get him 13-14 rounds later. If you want to completely punt the position and load up on running backs and receivers or you are in a Tight End premium league there are plenty of worse options to go with.

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

I am not going any further and I am going to be brief. Bernard should only be drafted in the absolute deepest of PPR leagues as a final depth piece and even then I think I could find better options. Brady specifically wanted him to be on the team, he is sure-handed as his history in Cincy would suggest, and Brady needs a competent blocker in the backfield during passing down situations going into his age 44 season. ADP seems steep but I have drafted in a ton of best ball drafts and I personally have not seen in drafted in any of them so I am thinking the 182 climbs closer to 190-200 as we get closer to week one.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

This preview is probably the single most challenging one that I will have through all 32 teams. The Bucs are extremely deep to the point of absurdity, they have a quarterback who may be the best ever at spreading the ball around, and to top it all off they have a defense that can shut opposing teams down making the need to even score points an unnecessary luxury some weeks. When it comes to drafting your fantasy teams you want to aim for clear situations with narrow player pools and while the depth chart is “clear”, there is no wider player pool in the NFL. If you are drafting these guys I wish you the best of luck, because it is going to be a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Super Bowl Showdown Spectacular: Chiefs at Bucs

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re bringing you NFL DFS analysis that breaks down the Super Bowl Showdown contests — helping you win big money in the big game!

Let’s start off by acknowledging that the Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites on the road against the best QB in NFL history, and that the chalkiest game script would make Tom Brady the most likely candidate to rack up the most points on either site – especially considering how much the Bucs spread the ball around to multiple receivers.

If the Chiefs jump out to any kind of lead in this road game, there’s a very good chance the Bucs will make a run – and there’s not much of a chance the Chiefs blow out Tampa Bay on their home turf.

There are some interesting pricing options we should observe – most notably the low DK price on Ronald Jones II and the relatively high tag for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on both sites. Neither of these guys should be written off. I’ll be mixing in hares of both backs considering their talents and the long time they’ve had to recover from injuries – not to mention the relatively low ownership they’ll garner despite soaring upside. I’m comfortable using both in 2/10 builds, and one or the other in three of the remaining eight. Darrel Williams may be the better Chiefs back to own assuming a Bucs win, since he’s the more prolific pass catcher of the two Chiefs backs (excluding Le’Veon Bell – who is expected to be available in an admittedly uncertain role).

Considering how bad the Chiefs run defense is, there’s even a chance that I play both Leonard Fournette and Jones in the one or two contrarian builds (out of ten) that DON’T feature Tom Brady – whose last Super Bowl performance (2018 season) was an unmitigated bust: 262-0-1 in a 13-3 win against a stalwart Rams defense. But this Chiefs defense is not the same animal as that Rams unit – and I’m fairly certain the Chiefs would prefer a 60+ point game total to a defensive battle.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, will have the most trouble stopping Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – both of whom offer mismatches for contrasting reasons – Kelce for his size and ability to manhandle smaller defenders in the middle of the field and in the red zone, and Hill for his blazing speed and the separation he gets in the open field. Both should be chalky, but paired with the right QB (it’s going to be very difficult to fit both Brady and Patrick Mahomes), either of these players has a good chance to post 25+ fantasy points.

Having the Bucs DST in a stack with Jones is probably the best contrarian RB/DST route we can go, and it leaves plenty of salary for working in Mahomes/Kelce or Mahomes/Hill.

There’s also some merit to playing the Bucs TEs (one or both of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate) in a stack with Brady – and it’s actually one of the ways to get both QBs in your lineup. This is assuming Mahomes does enough running and throwing himself to warrant consideration in a shootout at that obscene price tag. Gronk should be ready for a bigger workload in the biggest game he’s played since SB LIII, and Brate has five or more targets in three straight games. About one-quarter of the receiving yardage against the Chiefs came via the TE position this season, and Brate and Gronk’s usage in Week 12 against the Chiefs (Gronk ran 27 routes and caught 7-106-0 on eight targets; Brate saw six targets on 20 routes) fits that narrative. If Brady’s passing numbers soar, it’s very possible that him with WR/TE/TE could be the winning stack.

We’re not ignoring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and we’re certainly looking the way of Scotty Miller for his price – but unless we hear that Antonio Brown is 100 percent and prepping for a big role, I’m comfortable leaving him out of the equation this week. If he’s active, he’ll garner some minimal ownership, but he’s yet to make a huge impact on this Bucs team except as a distraction, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Evans and Godwin are way too expensive to play together along with Brady and the requisite Chiefs players.

Let’s talk briefly about defense/special teams. The pairings that work best for using a DST assume a defensive or special teams TD, so using one of the Bucs RBs with Jaydon Mickens (just $200 at FLEX on DK) and the Bucs DST could work. Conversely, the Chiefs DST could be paired with Mecole Hardman, who is $5,600 but offers some upside in the regular offense on end-arounds or quick-hitting catch-and-run plays that find him in space and galloping for greatness.

Let’s summarize and look at some Captain/MVP possibilities:

Super Bowl NFL DFS Captain/MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (DK $11,700, FD $12,500)

FD/DK Value: Ronald Jones II (DK $2,200 FLEX, FD $8,000), Darrel Williams (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $9,000). Scotty Miller (DK $3,400 FLEX, FD $6,500)

With these prices and scenarios in mind, let’s look at some of the possibilities on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – DraftKings

The 1.5x bonus is nice, but you’ve got to pay the piper for it. We’ve discussed Brady as the best possible captain choice and how you can make it work with Scotty Miller and TEs, but if you roll that way in a smattering of your MME builds you really have to alternate some Chiefs (CEH/Hill or CEH/Kelce).

This is also the only site we can utilize some of the DST touchdown stacks (with the kick returners), so bear that in mind.

It’s also the site where we can roll the dice on RoJo or play around with the idea of using the salary-saving Scotty Miller as captain. And since we have to fill six spots, kickers are a little more in play than they are on FD – where there are just five slots.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – FanDuel

While things are a little more straightforward on FD (higher minimum price, no defenses and flat cost for all positions) you have to get a little more creative to build a unique lineup. This makes single-entry tournaments even more attractive and means you can more comfortably roster a big-impact, large-volume skill position players who’s not a QB (I’m looking at all four RBs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you’re looking for a narrow player pool).

That said, I still prefer Tom Brady in the captain spot on FD. He’s got a lot of productive pass-catching weapons, he likes to spread it around, and he’s going to rack up points in about eight of the 10 narratives we’ve discussed.

I probably won’t be using kickers in my FD builds.

A couple more things:

  1. Pay attention to new WinDaily handicapper Mike North’s betting preview and any updates he makes.
  2. Check out Mike and Sia’s podcast breakdown.

Lastly — keep an eye out for injury updates and breaking news right up to lock for NFL DFS. A lot can happen the night before a Super Bowl, even during the time of COVID.

10:30 a.m. injury/news update

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) had been trending in the right direction and will suit up for Super Bowl LV. While his usage in the big game is a huge question mark, he probably won’t receive his normal complement of snaps and routes. Just because he’s active doesn’t mean he should be a staple of your builds, and he’s certainly not cash-viable. Chiefs C Daniel Kilgore (COVID-19 precautions) was also cleared for the Super Bowl after testing negative all week as a high-risk close contact — but that’s just context. Explosive but underutilized WR Demarcus Robinson has also been removed from the team’s COVID list and will be available.

Antonio Brown (knee) and Cameron Brate (back) are also active, which means the Bucs will be at full strength offensively despite Brown’s previous inactivity and Brate’s back injury he sustained in practice this week. I’m still hesitant to play Brown, and Brate’s DFS upside depends largely on snap count and red zone usage.

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Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – NFC Trading Cards

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.

Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.

GPP – Davante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.

What a cool-looking card — and not too expensive!

Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.

If you look closely, you can see some minor edge issues that could prevent this card from grading a Gem Mint 10.

New Orleans Saints

Cash – Drew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.

GPP – Alvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.

The 2017 Donruss set is filled with big rookies, including Kamara, Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.

Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cash – Tom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.

Is this Brady rookie card worth $250K in a PSA 10? There are only seven graded that high on the PSA registry.

GPP – Ronald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.

Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.

Los Angeles Rams

Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.

GPP – Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.

Punt – Van Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf

GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson

Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas

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Daily Fantasy SportsNFL

Week 11 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Rams at Bucs

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones II (DK $13,200, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Jared Goff (DK $14,700, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (DK $12,300, FD $12,500)

DK Punts: Leonard Fournette ($6,600) or Tyler Higbee ($7,200)

DK Contrarian Punt: Rams DST ($4,500)

While there are viable showdown builds that feature Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Tom Brady will be the chalk at captain on Monday night, largely because he spreads the ball around quite a bit. Evans was targeted a season-high 11 times last week, while Godwin has yet to receive fewer than six targets in any game he’s suited up for this season. Embattled egomaniac and HOA member Antonio Brown was targeted eight times last week in his second game with the team, so he’s another WR who could make an impact.

The Rams DST could be the best contrarian punt option to directly challenge the “Tom Brady smashes in typical fashion” narrative, since we’ve seen a disruptive Aaron Donald and this unit post double-digit DK point totals in four of the last six games.

Jared Goff is certainly an option as well, but the three-headed Rams rushing attack presents a difficult situation to parse for fantasy purposes. Goal line work that typically goes to a healthy Darrell Henderson, Jr. was handled by Malcolm Brown (two rushing TDs on six carries) in Week 10, and Cam Akers finally saw some work between the 20s with 10 carries and a modest 38 rushing yards. The Bucs stingy run defense also complicates the deployment of Rams RBs – but it also helps to reduce their ownership, so picking the right one (just like picking the right Bucs pass-catcher) could be the key to smashing the slate.

On the Bucs side, we’ve got two explosive RBs, with Ronald Jones II the clear RB1 and Leonard Fournette acting as a change-of-pace runner and an elevated role in passing down work. It doesn’t matter which back you use – you could even use both – but whatever back you choose should reflect the obvious correlation plays for both teams.

As for the other Rams position players, I usually lean more heavily toward Robert Woods for his possession attributes and larger snap share, but Cooper Kupp and his elevated price could make him the preferred option in GPPs this week. I’m also interested in Tyler Higbee, as frequently targeting the Rams TE it could be a way for Goff to neutralize the pass rush.

And speaking of TEs, the Bucs have two good ones in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, both of whom receive red zone targets and make for more affordable options.

It’s a week where an expertly constructed single-entry lineup could see tons of success, but multiple entries are the way to go if you’re hell-bent on coming close to finding the golden ratio of showdown perfection and taking down a huge GPP.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to get a little different with your builds. Tom Brady will be massive chalk on FD, and last night’s winning lineup didn’t have Patrick Mahomes (90% owned) or Tyreek Hill (21.5 FD points), even though both had solid games.

DO: Follow a narrative that makes sense. If you’re committed to a rare Brady bust, feel free to get the Rams DST in there.

DON’T: Forget about Bucs kicker Ryan Succop – who’s had double digit totals in four of his last six games.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ronald Jones II
  3. Jared Goff
  4. Robert Woods
  5. Chris Godwin
  6. Cooper Kupp
  7. Mike Evans
  8. Antonio Brown
  9. Leonard Fournette
  10. Darrell Henderson, Jr.
  11. Josh Reynolds
  12. Rob Gronkowski
  13. Tyler Higbee
  14. Malcolm Brown
  15. Ryan Succop
  16. Bucs DST
  17. Cameron Brate
  18. Rams DST
  19. Gerald Everett
  20. Cam Akers
  21. Matt Gay
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Daily Fantasy SportsNFL

Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Giants

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)

Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.

One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.

But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.

If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.

For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,

Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.

Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.

DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.

DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ronald Jones
  3. Mike Evans
  4. Daniel Jones
  5. Darius Slayton
  6. Rob Gronkowski
  7. Scotty Miller
  8. Evan Engram
  9. Leonard Fournette
  10. Sterling Shepard
  11. Tyler Johnson
  12. Wayne Gallman
  13. Bucs DST
  14. Justin Watson
  15. Cameron Brate
  16. Dion Lewis
  17. Ryan Succop
  18. Golden Tate
  19. Graham Gano
  20. Giants DST
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