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Max Scherzer

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Tuesday – 6/22

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a really big 14 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

After a bunch of underwhelming pitching slates over the past week, boy do we have a packed house with solid pitching today. With MLB starting to check for substances yesterday, we’ll need to start keeping an eye on regression from some pitchers.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Max Scherzer ($10.8K) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – We’ll need to monitor Scherzer’s status before the game, but all signs point to him pitching tonight after throwing a successful bullpen session this weekend. If he does pitch, he’s my top pitcher tonight as he gets a great match-up against the Phillies and we’d be getting him at his cheapest price since early April.

Max has been his dominant self this year with a 3.30 xFIP and an elite 35% K rate. With the Phillies, we’re getting a team that has struggled against righties this year. They’re striking out a lot with a 25% K rate and a wOBA south of .300.

While they Phillies have had a lot of injuries this season that have brought their numbers down, they’ve also shown even when healthy they can strike out a ton. This is a good spot for us to attack today with Scherzer and he’s only the third most expensive pitcher.

Freddy Peralta ($9.5k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Anytime that I can get a pitcher less than 10k that has the strikeout potential of Peralta I’m going to jump at the chance to grab him. On the year Peralta is sporting a 37% K rate. While he has seen that come back down to earth over the past 30 days to the tune of 30%, 30% is still nothing to sneeze at and is in the elite range.

He’s getting to face a team that has been far better against lefties than it has righties. Against righties this year the Dbacks are striking out nearly 25% of the time and not producing much else with just a .129 ISO and .288 wOBA. He faced this very same team just a couple of weeks ago and struck out 9 in only 7 IP. While anything can happen in the game of baseball, this is a good match-up tonight for Peralta.

Zack Wheeler ($11.4k) vs. Washington Nationals – He’s the most expensive of the bunch, but he’s also been arguably the best of the bunch. Wheeler has been lights out this year. He has a 2.98 xFIP and near 33% K rate. While the Nationals don’t K much to righties, there’s some potential today for Wheeler when we dive into pitch mix.

To lefties, he throws his slider almost 33% of the time. Schwarber, Soto, and Bell all have whiff rates of 30% or greater to this pitch. If his slider is on, he’s got a real shot at K’ing a bunch of guys tonight. Look for Wheeler to continue to his dominance tonight.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Oakland Athletics vs. Taylor Hearn/Jordan Lyles – Rangers will be using Hearn as the opener today and then will most likely go to Lyles. Hearn hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings all year so I’m going base my write up on Lyles.

Lyles has been dreadful this year. No other way to put it. He has a near 5 xFIP and is giving up a 47% hard hit rate. Lyles has been pretty bad to both sides of the plate so we don’t really need to be overly concerned with platoon splits.

He throws his FB more than 50% of the time to lefties. From the left side I want to focus on both Tony Kemp ($2.2k) and Matt Olson ($4k). Kemp is still way too cheap for his recent productivity and should be an anchor to your lineup tonight. On the right hand side I like both Chapman ($3k) and Murphy ($2.4k). Murphy has excellent numbers against sliders and that’s what Lyles throws most of the time to righties.

Seattle Mariners vs. Kyle Freeland – This says more about the match-up than it does about the Mariners. On the year, Freeland has an xFIP of 7.09. You read that right. I should preface that with saying his sample size isn’t the biggest as he only pitched in 5 games this year. What he’s done in those 5 games though is pretty remarkable.

In his last 3 outings, with 2 outside of Coors, he’s given up 18 runs in only 12 innings of work. Freeland has also given up 14 barrels in his last 20 innings of work. For some reason the Rockies are giving him a long leash in each outing. I hope that trend continues tonight.

My stack of the Mariners tonight will focus on the heart of the lineup. Haniger ($3.3k), Seager ($2.9k), France ($3.5k), and Moore ($2.4k) are all primed to have good nights.

Chicago White Sox vs. Tyler Anderson – I wish the hitting environment were better tonight as the game is in PNC Park and it’s supposed to be in the mid 60’s all game, but Anderson more than makes up for a lack of perfect hitting conditions.

White Sox have come back down to earth a bit after their scorching start vs. lefties. That said, they’re still one of the best teams in the league against left handed pitching with a 123 wRC+ and a .183 ISO. Anderson has really struggled against right handed hitters this year with a .234 ISO and a 40% hard hit rate and fly ball rate. Lucky for us the White Sox will throw out a predominantly right handed lineup.

Anderson ($3.3k), Engle ($2.4k), Abreu ($3.2k), Vaughn ($2.2k), and Grandal ($2.7k) are all cheap or very reasonable considering the match-up and how well they hit left handed pitching. Abreu and Grandal are my favorites as they both crush left handed change ups (one of Anderson’s favorite pitches to righties).

I could have really kept going in terms of hitting spots. With the lean toward expensive pitching tonight I wanted to provide stacks that are cheap to reasonably priced and in great spots against bad pitching.

If you decide to fade all the high priced/high strike out arms tonight, going with a team like the Houston Astros could yield great results as the match-up against Lopez is as pretty as they get. The one must from the Astros I’d go with is Alvarez ($3.8k). Lopez is a sinker ball pitcher and Alvarez has a .268 ISO and 55% hard hit rate against right handed sinkers.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

We haven’t had a slate like this in terms of pitching in a while. It will be interesting to see which guys struggle tonight in terms of not being able to use the foreign substances anymore.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green tonight!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Thursday – 06/10

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have 2 slates of MLB DFS to navigate through on Fanduel. An early 4 game slate and a main 6 game slate.

For today I’m going to do an overview of the early slate and then provide the normal 3 aces and 3 bats for the main slate. Pitching is somewhat underwhelming on both slates today. We do however have some great hitting environments, especially on the main slate.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Early Slate

My lean here with pitching is Zach Wheeler ($11.5k) vs. Atlanta Braves. Wheeler has been dominant this year. An argument could be made that he’s been one of the top pitchers in the game this season. Over the past 30 days he has a near 38% K rate and a .216 xFIP.

The match-up is a bit daunting as he’s facing a strong Braves lineup. Braves can be had though as evidenced by Eflin’s 7 K performance last night. If Eflin can do it, so can Wheeler.

The other pitcher I’m considering here is Julio Urias ($10.8K) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates. Pirates are a mess and aren’t doing much against lefties this year with an ISO of .125. While they don’t K as much as I’d like, Urias still has a 30% K rate over the past 30 days and I think he’ll still get some K’s in this matchup.

For bats my top stack outside of the chalk Dodgers will be the Milwaukee Brewers. I like attacking Castillo when I can. I think this is a spot we can exploit. Castillo is giving up a ton of base runners this year and some power. My focus here will be the lefties. Daniel Vogelbach ($2.4k), Christian Yelich ($4k), and Omar Narvaez ($2.5k) all match-up well to Castillo’s pitch mix.

I’m also looking to the Detroit Tigers vs. Justus Sheffield. Sheffield on the year has a 5.29 xFIP. That’s bad. While he does give up a lot of ground balls, he also gives up a ton of hard contact, especially to righties. I hope Eric Haase ($3k) is back in the lineup today because he matches up really well as he has crushed sinkers this year. Jonathan Schoop ($3k) will also be a main target here.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Aces

Max Scherzer ($11k) vs. San Francisco Giants – I should preface this with there’s a ton of weather concern in this game. If it plays without any concerns Mad Max will be my top arm.

On the year Scherzer has a 36% K rate and a 3.25 xFIP. His K rate is the top on the slate. While the Giants offense has been pretty good of late, they are still striking out at a near 27% clip vs. righties on the year. Scherzer is the clear cut favorite on the night.

Trevor Rogers ($10.1k) vs. Colorado Rockies – Rogers has come back down to a earth bit over the past 30 days. On the year, his K rate his 30%. If we dial that back to the past 30 days it’s hovering around 25%. So there’s been a bit of regression with his strikeouts. He’s had some tough match-ups in there though so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Today he gets to face off against a Rockies team that struggles away from home. I like the chances of Rogers returning to his early season form and rebounding with a 50 burger tonight.

Mike Minor ($8.2k) vs. Oakland Athletics – My builds will be tailored around the first two guys I mentioned. I am however a bit intrigued by Minor. Outside of his outing vs. the Twins, Minor has been pretty good over the past 30 days.

Since early May, Minor has a 3.56 xFIP and a 29% K rate. Those marks plus just a 29% hard hit rate have enabled him to put together a string of really solid starts. While I don’t normally like to target pitchers against the A’s, I do think this is a good match-up for Minor.

His main secondary pitch is his slider. If we look at the projected lineup for the A’s tonight, they all have whiff rates over 20% with many of them being over 30%. Not a safe pick, but if you have a strong risk appetite Minor may be your guy tonight.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Bats

New York Yankees vs. J.A. Happ – Happ is one of my favorite punching bags. Yes, we’ve seen the Yankees struggle at times vs. lefties. Matz dominated them just a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight will be a different story. Happ is just a gas can at this point in his career. He has a 5.83 xFIP, a 47% FB rate, and a near 38% hard hit rate on the year. He’s giving up big numbers consistently. In 4 of his last 5 outings he’s given up 9 ER, 6 ER, 4 ER, and 5 ER.

With the Yankees tonight we need to focus on the right side of the plate. Happ is giving up far worse numbers to righties than lefties. While this season has been a struggle for the Yankees against lefties, if we look at a larger body of work we can see that guys like Giancarlo Stanton ($3.6k), Aaron Judge ($4.3k), Gleyber Torres ($3.4k), and Gary Sanchez ($2.7k) all have had serious power numbers vs. lefties. They’ll be my targets tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dallas Keuchel – Yes, Keuchel is an extreme groundball pitcher. To righties it’s at 61%. That’s a whole lot of groundballs. That said, he’s also someone that is susceptible to the long ball. He’s given up 6 in his last 27 innings of work.

The Blue Jays have a ton of guys that do well against left handed sinkers. Guerrero ($4.4k) and Hernandez ($3k) both have ISO’s over .250 in a decent sized sample. Bichette ($3.5k) is another guy that has had success against Keuchel’s pitch mix. While the Yankees are my favorite stack, the Blue Jays aren’t far behind.

Miami Marlins vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez – Another one of my favorite punching bags is our dear old friend Chi Chi. Gonzalez is someone that is going to meet up with regression.

Over his last 30 days Gonzalez has just a 3.2 ERA. Not bad right? Well his xFIP is 4.86. He’s skating by with some luck. He’s giving up a ton of contact with just a 5% whiff rate and a 41% hard hit rate. At some point, those hard hit balls are going to fall and the damage is going to happen.

While the Marlins lineup is nothing to get overly worried about, they do have some guys that have some pop and with Gonzales not missing many bats I’m not as worried about their high strikeouts. Chisholm ($3.3k), Marte ($4.2k), Aguilar ($3.6k), and Dickerson ($2.4k) are all fine targets here as Gonzalez is bad vs. both lefties and righties.

MLB DFS: The Main Slate Wrapup

Pitching tonight will be centered around the likes of Rogers and Scherzer. With the Washington game at risk w/ weather, Rogers may be heavily owned so going to someone like Minor may be needed tonight. Yankees will be chalk but the match-up is just so good. It may leave the Blue Jays under-owned in a very good match-up.

Good luck today and tonight and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday, 5/30

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a smaller than usual 9 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

The east coast is still dealing with some rain so we’ll need to keep an eye on some spots today, including the Mil/Was which has the potential to be a pitcher’s duel. We have some good spots for hitting today, as well as a couple of aces on the hill.

Let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lucas Giolito ($10k) vs. Baltimore Orioles – White Sox are one of the heaviest favorites on the board today so we have a good chance at the 6 point win bonus with Gio. Giolito this season has been a model of inconsistency. At times he’s shown flashes of brilliance with his 11k performance against the Twins. This was after he got pummeled by the Royals for 5 ER in 6 IP.

My lean to Gio as my top pitcher today is he gets to face off against the Orioles. The Orioles present a nice match-up as they have struggled against righties this season. While their K rate is about average at near 25%, they have not hit for power with just a .140 ISO and .644 OPS. Gio has upside in this match-up. I think we can count on 7 IP and 7 K’s from him today while not allowing much damage.

Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Milwaukee Brewers – Mad Max has the highest K rate of any pitcher on today’s main slate at 35.6%. He’s still one of the top pitchers in the game. Today he gets to throw against a team that has a 26.4% K rate to his handedness. They’ve also had limited power vs. righties with a .143 ISO and .637 OPS to righties. This all sets up nicely for Scherzer to have one of his better games on the year.

Kyle Freeland ($6.8k) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Freeland is making his second start of the year. Although he faced a pretty depleted lineup against the Mets in his first outing, he was still pretty good. He struck out 5 through 4 and only gave up 4 hits.

He gets to face off against a team today that hasn’t been able to do much damage to lefties. They have just a .633 OPS and .127 ISO. Although their K rate is on the lower side, my hope at his price point today is that we can get him through 6 to get the QS bonus while also K’ing 6. That would get us to the mid 30 FD points if he only gives up a couple of runs. Against this Pirates offense, that’s very doable.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Chicago White Sox vs. Keegan Akin – Any time the White Sox play against a lefty I’m going to automatically consider them. They have just insane numbers vs. lefties this season. A slate leading 131 wRC+, wOBA at .358, and a .826 OPS. They do damage to lefties and they do it often.

Akin today is making his first start of the season. He’s pitched briefly out of the pen, but if we go to a larger body of work for him we see that he’s very susceptible to righties and the White Sox have lots of them. In his brief career he’s given up a 48% fly ball rate and 44% hard hit rate to righties.

I’m hopeful that the Yankees will be the more popular choice today so that we can get the White Sox at a lower ownership %. The guys I’m targeting in this one will be Yoan Moncada ($3.5k), Jose Abreu ($4k), Yermin Mercedes ($2.8k), and Andrew Vaugh ($2.5k).

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jake Arrieta – Some of our discord members should really like this pick. Arrieta is really in the twilight of his career. This season has not been kind to him and you have to wonder if after this season he decides to call it a career.

He’s pitching to a 4.75 xFIP, giving up a ton of hard contact at 39% and not missing many bats with a whiff rate of just 8%. In the Reds he’s going to have a tough match-up. Reds on the season have a .758 OPS and .179 ISO to righties.

The top 4 in the Reds lineup all have a lot of success against the sinker which is Arrieta’s main pitch. Eugenio Suarez ($3.1k), Jesse Winker ($4.1k), Nick Castellanos ($4.2k), and Tyler Naquin ($2.8k) all should do well today.

New York Yankees vs. Tarik Skubal – Yes, Skubal has 2 very good outings in a row. He’s K’d 9 in each game. He also faced two poor offenses in the Indians and Mariners.

Skubal should come back down to earth today against the Yankees. The Yankees are just a far superior lineup than he’s faced recently. On the season, the Yankees have a .709 OPS and .310 wOBA to lefties. They also got Stanton back the other day who really solidifies this lineup.

Yankees are going to popular today. Do you trust the Skubal recency bias and hope the chalk misses? Or do you eat the chalk and hope that Skubal comes back down to earth?

I didn’t write them up but the Minnesota/Kansas City game should have some fireworks. The two pitchers have combined to give up 16 homers in 90 innings of work. I would not be surprised if this game was the highest scoring game of the slate.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

Remember to keep an eye on the east coast weather today. Games in Boston and DC should have some weather, with the Bos game being the riskiest. As always, keep an extra eye on your Sunday lineups as getaway day normally means some of your veterans/catchers tend to sit. This should be a fun slate with lots of offense.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 05/02

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Sunday Funday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a nice sized 10 game main slate on Fanduel and that’s what we’ll focus on today.

We have a healthy amount of pitching options today, some priced a little higher than I’d like. Bats, well those are a plentiful today!

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s slates!

MLB DFS: The Aces

On the slate we have some pitches that are really priced up, but in pretty good spots.

Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Miami Marlins – I’d be lying if I said this spot gave me the warm and fuzzies. Mad Max struggled in his last outing. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt though as the game was played in Dunedin and that park is a hitter’s paradise. His two games prior were…excellent.

He’s facing a Miami squad today that really struggles vs. righties. They have a 26% k rate and a very low ISO and wOBA. All signs point to a nice rebound start for Scherzer. While the high hard hit rate does have me a bit concerned, he’s still only allowing a 68% contact rate which is one of the lowest marks for the pitchers going today.

Corey Kluber ($7.3k) vs. Detriot Tigers – Okay, this one may make you throw up in your mouth a bit. It’s ok if you do. These are GPP plays, not cash plays. Kluber looked much better in his last start vs. the O’s. It was his first QS of the season. It was also the first time this year he didn’t face a solid offense.

Guess what? He doesn’t face a one today either. He gets to take on the lowly Tigers (sorry Tigers fans.) Tigers are striking out more than 28% of the time when facing righties and have an extremely low wOBA of .281. Kluber is my cheap pick today if I’m fading the high priced arms. He only needs to get you through 5-6 innings with a handful of strikeouts to bring back value. With the matchup, I don’t see why he can’t do that today. He’s Kluber in 2021 so it’s not 100% safe, but I like my chances with him today.

Christian Javier ($9.4k) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – I normally don’t make it a habit of targeting the Rays with a pitcher. But with Javier on the mound today, I feel I need to. Javier has been pitching lights out this season. It’s now been a calendar month since he’s allowed a runner to score. His K rate of nearly 33% is one of the best marks of pitchers going today.

His number that impresses me the most though is his hard hit rate. He’s only allowing a 24.4% hard hit rate. That’s insanely low. In 20 IP this season, he’s only allowed 4 barrels. That too is great. The Rays have been mediocre against righties this season with an above age k rate and below average ISO and wOBA. All signs point to Javier continuing with his strong momentum.

Two other pitchers that should be considered today are Corbin Burnes ($11.1k) and Lucas Giolito ($10.6k). Both are elite, but caution surrounds both. Burnes is facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Gio hasn’t been great in his last 2 starts.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. Folty – Folty has not been good this year. His ERA and xFIP closely align so all signs point to us getting what we expect out of him. Folty has given up 8 homers already this season, and we’re only just now entering May. The two guys that stand out first to me are Alex Verdugo ($3.2k) and Rafael Devers ($3.7k). Folty throws his sinker more than 26% of the time to lefties. Both guys have wOBA’s over .440 against this pitch. Add in JD Martinez ($4.2k) and Xander Bogaerts ($3.3k) to complete the 2-5 stack. This is a very affordable stack today and one that should pay dividends.

Houston Astros vs. Rich over the Hill – Sorry about that. Hill was splendid in his last outing. That outing to me was the anomaly and not the norm. He faced a team that was k’ing quite a bit to lefties.

Today, he doesn’t have that going for him. Astros for the season are only k’ing 18% of the time to lefties. Like Folty, Hill is giving up a ton of homers this season. 5 to be exact through only one month of work. Up and down the lineup, the Astros have guys that rake against lefties. Hill’s bread and butter pitch is his CB. Guys like Alex Bregman ($3.7K) and Yulieski Gurriel ($3.4k) have had great success against this pitch from lefties.

New York Yankees vs. Jose Urena – Yankee bats are really heating up. They’ve really taken advantage of the Tigers pitching. I don’t see any reason for that trend to stop today. Urena is a high contact pitcher, and a high hard contact pitcher. My one lane of caution with him is that he’s also a groundball pitcher. His goundball to flyball splits are extremely. 59% to 18%.

What does this mean? Yankees will have to score runs the old fashioned way. Put guys on, knock them home. Keep the carousel going. They scored 6 runs with no homers yesterday. No reason they can’t do something like that again today. Urena is a sinker ball pitcher. Stanton ($3.8k), Judge ($3.9k), Urshela ($2.9k), and Odor ($2.9k) all have cxwOBA’s over .400 against this pitch. Love this spot for the Yankees, not so much for Urena.

There’s a ton of offense to be had today. Atlanta Braves against Stripling and Minnesota Twins against Keller are also two more lineups I really like today.

MLB DFS: The Wrap Up

This has the makings of a great slate with tons of scoring. In my opinion, the key today will be picking the right pitchers as there are a healthy amount of offenses that should see success. Outside of some rain in Minnesota, weather looks perfect for this Sunday of baseball.

4 years ago 0 comments

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/27 (Fanduel Main Slate)

Joel Bartilotta 4 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Aces and Bases. Today we have a massive 13 game main slate of MLB DFS on Fanduel to navigate through.

The slate today has a couple of different paths you can take. You can pay up for pitching and piece together a stack and some value pieces. Or you can pay down a bit for pitching and load up on some offenses prime for success.

I’m normally a single line up person but because of the way the slate is today, I feel the need to build 2 lineups. One with a priced up pitcher, one with a low priced pitcher. My goal today will be to give you options for both.

With that being said, let’s dig in to today’s MLB DFS slate!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Lucas Giolito ($10.6k) vs. Detroit Tigers – This is your premier matchup on the day. Giolito is the second biggest favorite on the board today. He faces a Tigers lineup that has struggled against righties (they’ve actually just struggled as a whole this year). As a team they have a 27% k rate vs. righties this season and a wOBA south of .300. This sets up beautifully for Gio today.

Gio did struggle in his last outing against a surprisingly potent Red Sox offense, but that was an outlier and look for a nice bounce back today. On the season, he has a 32% k rate which is in line w/ his career numbers and a 15% whiff rate. He’s also really been able to limit hard contact. In 18 IP this season, he’s only given up 4 barrels. If paying up for pitching today, he’s going to be my guy.

Max Scherzer ($12k) vs. Toronto Blue Jays – I don’t make it a habit of picking on the Blue Jays lineup. Up and down the lineup they have solid hitters. But they’re right handed heavy and they face one of the top pitchers of our generation today. Since 2019, Max has a K rate of 37% vs. righties, while also inducing more soft contact than he does to lefties. I wish he was a little bit cheaper due to the match-up, but it’s a match-up he should do well in.

Jose Quintana ($6.7k) vs. Texas Rangers – Although it may look like there is some recency bias since Quintana dominated the Rangers last week, it’s actually due to the fact that the Rangers really struggle against lefties. I don’t expect another 8 k’s from Quintana tonight. 5-6 is probably more realistic for his skill set.

Rangers just can’t put good wood on Lefties. Although they had 7 hits against Keuchel the other night, 5 were singles and it was a relatively easy night for him. For the season the Rangers have a .109 iso against lefties. Of all the teams playing today ,that’s the worst ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher. They also have a .271 wOBA vs. lefties, which again, is the worst wOBA vs. their opponents handedness. At only 6.7K, it won’t take much for Quintana to exceed his value

Chris Paddack ($7.7k) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Paddack came up with a lot of fanfare in 2019. He battled Alonso for the ROY award, rightfully losing to the polar bear. Although he’s taken a little step back over the last 2 years, he’s starting to round into form. Two starts ago he was able to get the pitch count up to 99 pitches. There was a drop off last start but that was due to this team letting him down with poor defense. What stood out to me the most was that he came away w/ a season high of 7k’s.

This is purely a hunch play. Diamondbacks will probably throw out a mostly lefty lineup tonight. The main secondary pitch that Paddack throws to lefties is his changeup, 33% of the time. Only Kole Calhoun has a cxWOBA over .300 to this pitch from righties. For the season, the Diamondbacks have been mediocre against righties. Not a safe play, but possibly a fun play.

MLB DFS: The Bats

Boston Red Sox vs. David Peterson – This has the makings of a short outing for Peterson. Peterson isn’t a bad pitcher by any means. His xFIP is a full 4 runs lower than his ERA. He just doesn’t match up well w/ the Red Sox. This is a lineup that is setup to be successful vs. lefties. As a team, they have a .343 wOBA and a .186 ISO this season. If we go back to 2019, we’re looking at a .380 wOBA and a .264 ISO.

Peterson’s main pitch to hitters is the sinker, 41% to lefties and 28% to righties. Let’s look at some numbers since 2016 to the pitch. JD Martinez ($4.2k) .400 ISO, Xander Bogaerts ($3.7k) .211 ISO, Rafael Devers ($3.6k) .222 ISO, and Hunter Renfroe ($2.4k) .233 ISO. Vegas currently has the Red Sox at a 3.89 IRT. I think that’s wrong. Very Wrong.

New York Mets vs. Garrett Richards – I will not stack the Mets again… Eh, I’m doing it. Richards has a 6.25 xFIP this season. That’s a borderline DFA area. Here’s why I’m looking this way today. I tend to focus a bit more research on the pitcher’s main secondary pitch. Richards’ is the slider. This is a pitch the Mets’ lineup has had a ton of success against.

Brandon Nimmo ($3k), Francisco Lindor ($3.2k), Dominic Smith ($3k), Pete Alonso ($3.9k), and Michael Conforto ($2.9k) all have ISO’s north of .240 and cxWOBA’s north of .390. Outside of Alonso, all of these guys are super affordable. Especially Conforto who is really heating up. Conforto is a super streaky hitter who when he’s hot, he gets really hot.

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales – The Astros are finally fully healthy. Jose Altuve ($3.5k) is back after a bout with Covid. Here’s another lineup that is set up to do really well against lefties. For the season, they have a low K rate of 18% and a .342 wOBA vs. lefties. With Gonzales not missing any bats this year (8% whiff rate), I really like this spot for the Astros. The guys I want to prioritize here are Altuve,Alex Bregman ($3.8k), Yulieski Gurriel ($3.2k), and Martin Maldonado ($2.1k). All have had success against Gonzales’ main pitch which is the sinker. Don’t be afraid to start your stack with Maldonado in the 9 hole.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Corey Kluber – This is my bonus cheap stack of the day. Kluber just isn’t the same pitcher as he used to be. His 5.9 xFIP is one of the worst on the slate. He’s been struggling to keep guys off the bases as evidenced by his near 2 WHIP. The Orioles should be able to put up a bunch of runs tonight against Kluber. If you’re paying up for pitching, this is a lineup that has some guys that can put up points and save you some money. Cedric Mullins ($2.9k) has multi-hit games in 3 of his last 4 and he’s cheap.

MLB DFS Aces and Bases Wrap Up

This has the makings of an extremely fun slate. Lots of different paths can you take, and whichever path you take I hope it ends up with you cashing.

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Sports Betting

Three StriKes for Thursday July 23

Adam Strangis 5 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Three StriKes for Thursday July 23

Welcome into the inaugural edition of Three StriKes!! I’m super pumped to be bringing this article to the WinDaily team this season and looking forward to winning some money. We’re looking at my three favorite strikeout props, hence the Three StriKes for Thursday July 23. If you’re interested in learning a bit more of the process, I do have an intro right here.

With Thursday being a short slate, we’ll talk about the top three pitchers on the slate but I’m not sure I’ll be betting three tonight. If I do, it will likely go down to a quarter unit instead of a normal half unit in some cases and will be noted as such. Also, I will always put at least a quarter unit on a parlay of all three bets. When we get all three right, we may as well make it worth it.

StriKe One – Gerrit Cole

The very first pitcher ever written up for Three StriKes is near and dear to my heart, Gerrit Cole. As a point of reference, almost all of my betting will be done on DraftKings Sportsbook as that’s the most convenient for me personally. So when talking about the lines, they’ll be as accurate as they can at the time of writing for that site. Cole has opened up at 7.5 strikeouts at -155. While the return might not be great, this is an easy over in my eyes.

First off, he threw 87 pitches in his most recent tune up so workload isn’t a concern. Secondly, only seven of his 33 starts last year produced under eight strikeouts. That’s a very comfortable rate and the Nationals whiffed 21% of the time last year against righty pithing. Losing Anthony Rendon won’t help that mark. We have the preeminent strikeout pitcher from 2019 and his line isn’t even the highest in his own game.

Bet – Over 7.5 K’s

StriKe Two – Max Scherzer

This one is a little tougher and whichever way we bet is going to be just a quarter unit for Three StriKes for Thursday. This would be a line I might normally skip on a bigger slate but let’s have some fun.

Scherzer is set at 8.5 K’s and there are arguments for either side. Here’s the good news for Scherzer and one of the main reasons I lean to the over – he was dominant to RHH in 2019 and there’s a projected seven of them for the Yankees. Mad Max whiffed RHH at a 38.6% clip and held them down to a 0.65 HR/9. He also gave up just a .193 average, 1.62 FIP and a 2.22 xFIP.

Additionally, the Yankees did strikeout at a 23.1% clip last year to RHP. That was virtually without Giancarlo Stanton, who whiffed 31.1% of the time in 2018 (he missed almost all of 2019). What Scherzer comes down to is if he can keep the ball in the yard against this powerful Yankees lineup.

New York against RHH raked for power, ranking third in ISO at .218 and OPS at .820. For all of Stanton’s flaws, he also helps in this category. My view is Scherzer gives up a couple runs, but can control this RHH heavy lineup. I just won’t put a ton on it.

Bet – Small wager on Over 8.5 K’s

StriKe Three – Clayton Kershaw

Just because there’s only two games doesn’t mean we can’t have Three StriKes for Thursday! Kershaw does not currently have a K prop set yet. This will be a normal occurrence because I will be writing the night before, but that’s ok. We’ll discuss some of the stats and we’ll set a line that we feel comfortable with and go from there.

In 2019, Kershaw threw his fastball and slider for a combined 83.1% of his pitches. That’s a fantastic match against the Giants pitch data from 2019, as they ranked 28th vs the fastball and 24th vs the slider. That’s a strong checkmark for Kershaw and his 26.8% K rate from last season. He also has thrown 90 pitches in sim games, so we can feel comfortable with the workload.

There are a couple small drawbacks for Kershaw in this matchup. For one, his HR/9 last year jumped to 1.41. That’s easily the highest of his career so it was technically never easier to tag Kershaw for a bomb. The flip side to that is the Giants only had a .142 ISO, so it remains to be seen if they can take advantage of the long ball.

The other small knock is the Giants were not a big strikeout team against LHP at 23%. That was dead average at 16th among the league, so it wasn’t a glaring weakness. Still, this is not a lineup that should scare you at all. I’m hoping for a 5.5 K prop, but it’s likelier to be 6.5 K’s.

Bet – 5.5 is an easier over, I’m likely to still hit Over 6.5

Parlay – Cole and Kershaw over as Kershaw came in at my preferred 5.5

Thank you for reading as always. Feel free to tweet me @bucn4life with any and all questions, check out the MLB and Betting page on WinDailySports.com and let’s chat in the WinDaily Discord as well!

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/30 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a historic Game 7 of the World Series on tap, and our 10/30 DFS picks for MLB are geared to win you green in GPPs and take down cash games!

I hope you’ve enjoyed my MLB writeups this season, and make sure you check me out on Twitter and read my NFL and PGA musings at Win Daily Sports!

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10/30 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 7 – HoustonAstros at Washington Nationals, 8:08 p.m. EST

The Astros are favored by a half-run and projected implied totalsput them at about 4.25-4.5 runs, with the Nats around 3.75-4 runs. The last fewgames have eclipsed the projected total, so we can expect Game 7 to do thesame. It should be an exciting finish to a fun season of MLB action!

10/30 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Game 7 willfeature Zack Greinke (DK$15,600/$10,400) on normal rest versus MaxScherzer (DK $16,800/$11,200), who was scratched from his Game 5 starts withdebilitating back and neck spasms, got a cortisone shot and will be on the bumpto start Game 7. High drama, folks.

Greinke haspitched adequately in the last two series against potent offenses, whichcertainly elevates those performances on a degree of difficulty level but doesn’tnecessarily inspire confidence for fantasy usefulness at his current price. TheNats hitters looked pretty locked in during the later innings last night, and I’mnot interested in forcing either of these pitchers into my lineups today –though we could see 4-5 innings with enough Ks to warrant consideration atlower exposure.

Scherzer saidhe felt “good” throwing yesterday and actually loosened up in the bullpen for aspell toward the end of Game 6 – looking every bit the part and successfully sellingthe idea that the C-shot worked. I’ll be buying a few shares in Nats-heavybuilds.

In a winner-take-all Game 7 with nothing but glory and defeat the remainingdestinies for tomorrow, we could see quick hooks for either pitcher if the stuffisn’t there after the first several batters. These bullpens aren’t as deep assome of their previous playoff counterparts, but they have a bevy of arms that couldbe forced into duty if something goes awry. There’s some equity in fading thestarters altogether and stacking bats and the right bullpen arm – which for meshould be a closer since they could be expected to throw two innings inhigh-stakes moments.

Final thoughts about pitching:

It scares me to see Greinke’s fly ball rate at 38.9 this postseason,especially with his HR/FB rate at 23.8 percent.
Scherzer will NOT want to exit this game, so expect him to challengehitters early to keep his pitch count down, except for Alex Bregman, who hewill probably walk if he can get away with it.
Patrick Corbin may pitch in this game, but his price is too oppressivefor what will be limited work. I’m not going to get cute.
We haven’t seen Houston closer Roberto Osuna since Game 3 five daysago, so he’s somebody who we could focus on at just $4K.

Let’s get to the hitters.

10/30 DFS Hitters

Jose Altuve is my favorite hitter on Houston and will be in about 90 percent of my builds. Beyond that it’s Yuri Gurriel, George Springer and Michael Brantley, in that order. I wouldn’t fault you for starting Bregman (who with the price drop they are just DARING you to plug in), Yordan Alvarez or one of the cheap outfielders or catchers (likely Robinson Chirinos but Martin Maldonado has dingers in him too).

For the Nats, I’m counting on the Astros quieting Soto – who shouldhave the highest ownership among the Washington bats, and focusing on ticked-offtable-setter Trea Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera and his wealth of experience facingGreinke (18-for-40 career with six walks and just three strikeouts), and anothervalue bat or two. Again – I wouldn’t say boo about the decision to build aroundAnthony Rendon after his late-inning blast and cold-as-ice trot around the basepaths,and Adam Eaton is very hot at the plate this series.

10/30 DFS WashingtonNationals bats

Trea Turner (DK$13,200/$8,800)

Turner gotblanked in Game 5, we went back to the well, and he went 2-for-5 with a doubleand got robbed of a third hit on one of the worst calls in World Series history,and that includes the called third strike on Victor Robles in Game 5 that was fiveor six inches off the plate. Turner will be out for blood in Game 7 and he cando plenty of damage without blowing the game open, so this play is still congruentwith my “Houston wins” narrative.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,100/$7,400)

Eaton homered last night to tie up Game 6 at 2-2,and he’s had a solid series (.333/.440/.619 with two HR and four RBI) despite goinghitless in games 4 and 5. I love his spot in the order and he makes for a completelyreasonable play at a fair price.

Spotlight Value: AsdrubalCabrera (DK $9,900/$6,600)

Cabrera has loadsof experience and has been awfully quiet – too quiet – this series and duringhis long postseason career. In 28 October games, he’s hit just two homers andtwo doubles across 104 ABs. His price has dropped yet again, and his last hitwas in Game 3. He’s long overdue for a key hit in a big spot, and since I’mleaning Houston, I’ll need to find some value with my Nats’ exposure.

More 10/30 DFS options:Anthony Rendon (DK $14,400/$9,600), Victor Robles (DK $10,200/$6,800), JuanSoto (DK $14,100/$9,400), whoever catches at whatever price.

10/30 DFS Houston Astrosbats

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is my favorite play in cash games and I’ll be using him inseveral GPP entries. The postseason resume, the ability to hit just about anypitch thrown to him and his utility and aggressiveness on the basepaths makehim the top play for the Astros, though Gurriel (power) and Springer (all-aroundleadoff hitter extraordinaire) are close behind.

Yuri Gurriel (DK $10,500/$7,000)

I’d include Gurriel as my spotlight value, but I wanted to move him up to make sure you see how much I like him in this game. He mashes right-handed pitching, but opposing managers do not bother to try and exploit the reverse splits by throwing lefties in to face him (because he’s still a 112 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019 with a .242 ISO). I love him here, in this park, facing whomever is on the hill for the Nats at any point in the game. Is it to much that I ask him to hit two dingers tonight?

George Springer (DK$14,400/$9,600)

Springer has 27 DK points in two of the World Series games,and averages over 8 DK PPG in the other four – which includes and 0-for-5 blankin Game 2. He’s essential in Houston builds and isn’t too expensive to fit in hitter-onlyShowdown lineups.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($10,800/$7,200)

Brantley is still too cheap and I have a soft spot for his dadMickey, who is from a neighboring town. But my analysis here is far from justanecdotal; Brantley was hitless in game 5 and 6 and is without a HR this series,two things that have helped to keep his price down despite his eight-hit tallyin the first four games against Washington. It’s hard to say if this capablecontact hitter will break through with a home run tonight, but his .191 ISO in2019 was the highest of his career, and he was a slightly better hitter at home(140 wRC+ in Minute Maid vs. 127 on the road).

More 10/30 DFS options: Alex Bregman (DK $12,600/$8,400), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick (DK $6,000/$4,000), Robinson Chirinos ($7,500/$5,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #1 (Main narrative – Houston win)

CPT – J. Altuve ($13,800)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,800)

UTIL – T, Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,000)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – R.Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2 (Balanced& low-scoring w/ Gurriel 3-R HR)

CPT – Y. Gurriel ($10,500)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,200)

UTIL – Z. Greinke ($10,400)

UTIL – A. Cabrera ($6,600)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Osuna ($4,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (Natswin a score-fest, Doolittle closes)

CPT – A. Cabrera ($9,900)

UTIL – T. Turner ($8,800)

UTIL – A. Rendon ($9,600)

UTIL – J. Altuve ($9,200)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,400)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

10/30 DFS Hitters forFD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Altuve ($8,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – Cabrera ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2

MVP (2x) – Gurriel ($6,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – Gomes ($4,000)

UTIL – Eaton ($6,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #3

MVP (2x) – Turner ($7,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($8,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($6,000)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

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HR Challenge — Pick the Players that will get the most Home Runs

Goal: 0.50, Prize: 2x — Yuri Gurriel, George Springer, Jose Altuve

I think the Nats pitchers will avoid Alex Bregman, but one of these Houston hitters will end up hitting a bomb in Game 7. Minute Maid Park treats right-handed hitters especially well and these guys could easily punch a couple out of the yard.

6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/27 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

jason mezrahi 6 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re on to pivotal Game 5 of the World Series, and our 10/27 DFS picks for MLB give you the picks to win big in some GPPs and dominate cash games!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

10/27 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:07 p.m. EST)

Thegame: World Series Game 5 – Houston Astros at Washington Nationals, 8:07 p.m.EST

The projected implied totals again have the Astros – who justevened this series up at two games apiece – as slight favorites, with the Nats at3.0 to 3.5 and Houston coming in between 3.5 runs and 4.0. The total is around7, so we should probably utilize some SP here.

10/27 DFS SP Strategy andGame Notes

Iprovided us with a bunch of pre-gamenotes on this matchup ahead of Game 1, and we’re right back where westarted. Checkthat piece out for more info on GerritCole (DK $16,800/$11,200) who is firmly in play because of his reducedprice, his sustained ability to throw a gem and pile up the Ks.

While Max Scherzer (DK $15,900/$10,600) was the better pitcher in Game 1, or at least finished with better numbers (5 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 20.5 DK FP), I’m committed to Cole here, as I think the Astros are going to take all three of these games in Washington and head back to Houston to close it out in six (just like my Yankees did in 1996!). UPDATE: Max Scherzer SCRATCHED due to back spasms. Joe Ross (DK $9,000/$6,000) getting the start and worth a look as a low-cost GPP mix in.

With therecency of Scherzer’s last start and the Astros hitters a good bunch at making adjustments(especially Alex Bregman, who finally broke through last night much to ourdelight), I think there’s an opportunity to mix in some lineups with Cole atUTIL and an Astros 1-4 hitter in the top spot.

About two outof 10 of my GPP lineups will have Scherer, and five or six out of 10 willroster Cole.

Let’s talkabout hitters we like.

10/27 DFS Hitters

The three Astros I like best tonight are George Springer, Alex Bregmanand Michael Brantley – with some shares of Jose Altuve and Yuri Gurriel. For Washington,it’s going to be Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Trea Turner, with shares of Ryan Zimmermanand Victor Robles.

10/27 DFS Washington Nationals bats

Juan Soto (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Game 1 heromakes for the smartest allocation of funds for Nats bats, and he’s the mosteffective left-handed bat on the team and a bona fide star in the making. Workhim into at least half of your Nats-focused builds.

Trea Turner (DK $13,500/$9,000)

Turner’s power-speed combo is a pathway to fantasy points against atough opponent, and you can count on a stolen base if he gets aboard early. He’sstill waiting to break out in this series and I could see a 2-for-5 game withan XBH and a steal.

Adam Eaton (DK $11,700/$7,800)

Eaton went hitless last night, his first postseason game without ahit since October 9 facing the Dodgers, when he still finished with a run. Hehad two hits in Game 1.

Spotlight Value: Victor Robles (DK $10,500/$7,000) and RyanZimmerman (DK $9,600/$6,400)

We’re rolling with Robles and Zimmerman, who are both $7K or under as a UTIL, and either could be a pathway top both Cole and Scherzer if you’re counting on a pitchers’ duel. These two and Turner probably make the most sense as low-price captain options if you like the Nats and don’t want to spend up for Soto.

Other 10/27 DFS options: AnthonyRendon (DK $15,000/$10,000), Asdrubal Cabrera (DK $10,200/$6,800). If he plays:Kurt Suzuki ($8,700/$5,800)

10/27DFS Houston Astros bats

George Springer (DK $14,400/$9,600)

Springer had a monster Game 1 and looks ready to continuepestering Nats’ pitching at the top of the Houston lineup. It’s been one gameoff, one game on for him this WS, and today he should be on.

Alex Bregman (DK $13,200/$8,800)

He’s no longer cheaper than Adam Eaton, but he’s cheaper. And he’sstill less expensive than Turner, Springer and Altuve and in a much better spotto drive in runs and connect on a long ball. The ineffectiveness againstScherer ion Game 1 gives me some pause, but not enough to not use him in mycore Houston builds.

Jose Altuve (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Altuve is always a good play, and he’s be part of my Houstonbuilds where I use a closer. He’s still just the fourth most expensive hitterand has the most impressive postseason resume.

Spotlight Value: MichaelBrantley ($12,000/$8,000)

Brantley had three more hits last night and his price only came upto $8K for the utility spot. He’s not as cheap as he was, but he’s got a goodtrack record against Scherzer and if he can stay ahead in counts could may theNats pay.

Other 10/27 DFS options: YuriGurriel (DK $10,800/$7,200), Carlos Correa (DK $11,400/$7,600), Josh Reddick(DK $7,200/$4,800), Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000)

Sample DKGPP lineup #1 (Houston-heavy w/ Cole)

CPT – A. Bregman ($13,200)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200

UTIL – J. Soto ($9,400)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – R. Osuna (3,000)

Sample DK GPP lineup #2(Balanced w/value up top)

CPT – V. Robles ($10,500)

UTIL – G. Cole ($11,200)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – M. Maldonado ($4,000)

UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($7,200)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,400)

Sample DK GPP lineup #3 (w/Scherzer and Nats closer)

CPT – R. Zimmerman ($9,600)

UTIL – M. Scherzer ($10,600)

UTIL – S. Doolittle ($3,800)

UTIL – M. Brantley ($8,000)

UTIL – T. Turner ($9,000)

UTIL – A. Bregman ($8,800)

10/27 DFS Hitters for FD Single-game

You know the routine – no pitchers to consider so we can have somefun with the hitters!

Sample FD GPP lineup #1(Astros-dominant)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($7,500)

All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)

UTIL – G. Springer ($9,500)

UTIL – R. Zimmerman ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Reddick ($4,500)

Sample FD GPP lineup #2 (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($7,500)

UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

UTIL – Eaton ($7,000)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

Sample FD lineup (Nats-heavy)

MVP (2x) – Soto ($9,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – Turner ($7,500)

UTIL – H. Kendrick ($4,500)

UTIL – Robles ($5,500)

UTIL – Brantley ($7,000)

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Cole Under 8.5, Scherzer Under 7.5 — 3x Buy In

I have Cole at 7-8 Ks and Scherzer at 6-7, so that put both under for 3x! We did good last night with the Bregman HR, so lets keep it up!!

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6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/22 DFS MLB: World Series Showdown and Prop Picks

StixPicks 6 years ago

written by StixPicks

The World Series gets underway tonight in Houston, and we’ve got your 10/22 DFS picks for MLB at Win Daily Sports. Lets win some green!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

10/22 DFS MLB: DK Showdown(8:08 p.m. EST)

The game: World Series Game 1 – Washington Nationals at HoustonAstros, 8:08 p.m. EST

10/22 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Rostering Houston starter Gerrit Cole in the Captain slot is a major priority. Cole started his career in the NL with the Pirates, and these Nats hitters are collectively slashing .227/.265/.340 against him in 97 total AB.

Batters from either side of the plate were below a .250wOBA & xwOBA against Cole this season. His home wOBA, in a hitters’ parkwas just .229. He issued just 19 walks at home compared to 174 Ks for acompletely ridiculous 9.16 K/BB ratio.

Cole has a 0.40 ERA with 32 Ks in 22.2 IP this postseason.He struck out 326 batters over 212.1 IP and cruised to a 20-5 record with a0.89 WHIP and 2.48 xFIP. His lefty-righty splits (2.43 xFIP vs. LHBs and 2.52xFIP vs. RHBs) don’t show any pronounced differences.

Scherzer is fine to pair with Cole in cash games, though wemight try to mix things up a bit in GPPs – as fading Scherzer and picking the rightHouston bats could work.

Morenotes:

Offensively, both teams are capable, but Houston has the edge – since they get more offense from the entire order and have a .355 team wOBA and 125 wRC+. The Nats came in at .336 xOBA and 102 wRC+.
The game total opened at just 6.5, with some Vegas books offering 7, and The Astros range from -190 to -210 favorites – putting the implied totals at 3.5 to 4 for the Astros and about 3.0 for Washington.
This should be a game without a lot of offense, so in GPPs, we’re essentially looking for home run power from unlikely sources – with catchers and bench players possibly playing an important role.
Stay tuned to the starting lineups – we could get some value from the bottom of both orders.

10/22 DFS Hitters

It’s going to be toughto find the right bats for the 10/22 DFS Showdown, but I have all the confidencein the world we can do it. The pricingis reasonable for a couple Houston bats I’m high on, and there’s a relativelycheap Nats’ hitter that provides the kind of upside we’re looking for in the difficultmatchup against Cole.

10/22 DFS Washington Nationalsbats

AnthonyRendon (DK $14,100/$9,400)

The Nats’ third baseman is the best hitter on the team, posting a1.013 OPS in the 2019 regular season. He had at least one hit in every game of thepostseason except Game 1 of the NLDS and provides the most general upside ofany hitter in the Nats lineup. I won’t be 100%, but I’ll have plenty ofexposure in the balanced lineups I build.

TreaTurner (DK $13,200/$8,800)

If Turner can get onbase, which he’s shown a knack for doing (career-high .353 OBP in 2019), he canget something going. Solving Cole won’t be easy, but the Yankees managed to getnine baserunners (4 hits, 5 BB) versus Cole in Game 3. Turner has power, speedand the patience to get aboard (he’s also drawn three walks in this postseason)against anyone.

JuanSoto (DK $12,600/$8,400)

The junk-grabbing shuffle he’s doing against certain pitchers is pretty hilarious, and it even has its own Twitter page, but it’s testament to the confidence this young hitter flaunts at the dish. He’s hit a couple big homers this postseason and finished the 2019 regular season with a .394 wOBA – a number that jumps to .414 versus RHPs. Soto won’t be intimidated by Cole and stands as good a shot as any to take him deep, so I’ll be including him on my short list of Nats hitters that have what can be considered a “favorable” matchup – favorable being a relative term against a stud like Cole.

SpotlightValue: Matt Adams (DK $6,900/$4,600)

Adams will should see ABs for the Nationals – he’s 4-for-17 career off Cole with a HR and 5 Ks. He and Michael Taylor (1-for-6, HR, 2 Ks) are the only Nats hitters to have taken Cole deep. If he starts, Adams is my free square. He’s had a rough September/October, and has just three plate appearances in the 2019 postseason, but he’s had more ABs against Cole than anyone else except Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s also got a history of some October clout on his resume.

Otheroptions: Howie Kendrick (DK $11,400/$7,600), Adam Eaton (DK $8,100/$5,400),Victor Robles (DK $7,800/$5,200), Kurt Suzuki (DK $7,500/$5,000), MichaelTaylor (DK $6,600/$4,400)

10/22 DFS Houston Astros bats

AlexBregman (DK $13,800/$9,200)

Bregman’s bat was pretty quiet during the Yankees series, but I expect it to come alive in the World Series for two reasons: First, the Nationals pitchers – Scherzer especially – will challenge the AL MVP candidate a lot more than New York did. Secondly, Bregman only hit one homer in the postseason (against the Rays), but he’s carrying a .435 OBP through 11 games this October and sporting a wRC+ of 139 during that span. That tells me there’s nothing wrong with his plate approach or his bat.

CarlosCorrea (DK $10,200/$6,800)

The value we’re gettingon Correa is worth noting, as is the fact that he popped a couple homers in theALCS. The last couple days have offered him a chance to rest his ailing back,and as I mentioned before, the Nats pitchers are going to challenge Houstonhitters in ways that the Yankees didn’t have to – based on their elite bullpen.We forget about him because Houston is so loaded with talent, but Correa has a114 wRC+ in 181 postseason plate appearances, and he’s a 25-year-old in the primeof his career.

JoseAltuve (DK $14,100/$9,600)

The Game 6 hero is riding a wave into the World Series and should draw considerable ownership based on his game-winning efforts against the Bronx Bombers. He’s capable of filling up the state sheet with runs, hits and SBs, not to mention the occasional two-run walk-off homer. Pricing is more than fair and I’ll have some shares, but my ownership on Bregman and Correa might be a little higher.

Spotlight Value: Michael Brantley (DK $8,400/$5,600)

TheDK pricing algorithm seems to giving way too much credence to Brantley’spostseason numbers, which are admittedly weak from a career standpoint(.224/.293/.269 slash in 75 plate appearances). He’s carrying a respectable .340OBP this October despite struggling against a slew of excellent Yankees pitchers,but he’s done quite well in a pretty large BvP sample against Scherzer,slashing .341/.367/.636 in 44 career ABs with eight doubles and a HR. The restof the Astros have faced Mad Max 11 times or fewer, but Brantley feels like thefree square on Houston, especially bating out of the 3-hole. He’s my favoritevalue bat in the Showdown.

Other10/22 DFS options: Yuri Gurriel (DK $9,000/$6,000), George Springer (DK $13,500/$9,000),Martin Maldonado ($6,000/$4,000), Yordan Alvarez ($10,800/$7,200), Josh Reddick(DK $6,600/$4,400)

SampleDK Lineup (Houston-heavy: Cole as CPT with no Scherzer)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman (9,200)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – A. Eaton ($5,400)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

SampleDK Lineup (Balanced: Cole as CPT with Scherzer at UTIL)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – Y. Gurriel ($6,000)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – M. Taylor ($4,400)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with both SP and Houston closer included)

CPT – G. Cole ($18,000)
UTIL – M. Scherzer ($11,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Brantley ($5,600)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)
UTIL – R. Osuna ($3,000)

SampleDK lineup (Astros-heavy with Brantley at CPT and no Scherzer – GPP)

CPT – M. Brantley ($8,400)
UTIL – G. Cole ($12,000)
UTIL – A. Bregman ($9,200)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,400)
UTIL – C. Correa ($6,800)
UTIL – M. Adams ($4,600)

10/22 DFS Hitters for FDSingle-game

Here we can just load upon Astros hitter and pick or (or two, in some cases) Nats hitters to meetrequirements and/or get a little bit squirrely.

SampleFD lineup #1

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Brantley ($7,000)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Turner ($7,000)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup #2 ($0 left)

MVP (2x) – Bregman ($8,500)
All-Star (1.5x) – Altuve ($9,500)
UTIL – Correa ($7,500)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)
UTIL – Adams ($4,000)

SampleFD lineup (Balanced)

MVP (2x) – Brantley ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bregman ($8,500)
UTIL – Soto ($8,000)
UTIL – Kendrick ($6,000)
UTIL – Gurriel ($5,500)

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Total Home Runs — Goal: 1.50, Prize: 4x

Bregman, Brantley and Soto

I like these three for their matchups, though Brantley is a bit of a wild card. You can take the easy money with a 2x win if one of these guys goes deep, or count on two dingers to get 4x. Good luck!

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6 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate & Showdown Picks

6 years ago

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The 10/12 DFS MLB Two-Game Slate is about the Nationals seeking to move one step closer to really loving Life After Bryce (WAS @ STL, 4:08 ET, FS1) while Act 1 of Clash of the Titans goes down in H-Town (NYY @ HOU, 8:08 ET, FOX).

Showdown and Hitting picks follow, and I’m pretty sure we won’t forget the four starting hurlers in question.

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10/12 DFS Showdown: WAS @ STL

MVP/Captain (2X)

Trea Turner, SS, WAS (DK $14700, FD $9500)

Runs will be at a premium today, so I’ll go with the one player capable of creating runs on his own. Four of Turner’s eight postseason hits are for extra bases, and I feel today’s the day he becomes aggressive on the basepaths.

All-Star (1.5X)

Adam Eaton, OF, WAS (DK $7600, FD $7000)

Eaton has a great track record against Cards starter Adam Wainright, having recorded a .545 batting average (6-for-11) with a homer and a 1.455 OPS. Yes, he’s scuffling thus far in the postseason (.167 batting average, .560 OPS), but the thought of hitting Wainright is the wake-up call his bat needs.

Utility

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS (DK $7000, FD $6500)

Like Eaton, Zimmerman has a strong record against Wainright. In 34 career at-bats, Zimmerman has hit .353 with a pair of homers and a 1.048 OPS. He’s facing Wainright at a time where Zimmerman has five hits in his last three games while showing there’s still some pop left in his bat with a homer and a double among his hits.

Utility

Tommy Edman, 3B, STL (DK $9000, FD $7000)

You’re going to be hard-pressed to find anyone in the Cards lineup with success against Max Scherzer, but Edman — albeit a brief sample — is an exception, having gone 2-for-3 with a homer off the Nats ace. He was hitless in Game 1 yet had four hits in the previous two games. Edman is more dominant at home, where he’s posted a .959 OPS with four homers and 26 runs scored at Busch Stadium.

Utility

Yadier Molina, C, STL (DK $4400, FD $5000)

I’ve had a decent rate of success with catchers in the postseason, so consider Molina a roll of the dice. Molina is hitting just .130 thus far in the playoffs but there’s a feeling he can pay off here this afternoon. Sometimes, you have to play a hunch, and at this low a salary, I’ll take my chances.

10/12 DFS Showdown: NYY @ HOU

MVP/Captain (2X)

George Springer, OF, HOU (DK $15,000, FD $8000)

One of a handful of Astros who have hit well against Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka, Springer has two homers and a 1.126 OPS in 14 at-bats against him. He also had three hits in Games 4 and 5 in the ALDS, a good sign that his postseason woes have moved past. Springer has a .931 OPS at home and a .998 OPS versus righties. Run with him tonight.

All-Star

D.J. LeMahieu, 3B, NYY (DK $9600, FD $7500)

LeMahieu knows a thing or two about Astros starter Zack Greinke, having faced him 58 times as a member of the Rockies while Greinke was bouncing around the National League. He’s hit Greinke with a .293 average with a homer among his six extra base hits against him. LeMahieu has tagged Astros pitching with a .429/.480/.905 with a pair of dingers and six runs scored.

Utility

Gleyber Torres, 2B, NYY (DK $8200, FD $6500)

Youth be damned, Torres hit a sizzling .417 in the ALDS with four of his five hits going for extra bases. He hasn’t fared well against the Astros this season (.708 OPS) but does have a pair of homers against them. He’d be my early choice for ALCS MVP. Clip and save that last sentence.

Utility

Yuli Gurriel 1B, HOU (DK $7800, FD $5500)

One of the most impressive LDS facts was Gurriel not striking out in 19 at-bats. He’s lethal at Minute Maid Park, where he’s gone .311/.351/.615 with 19 homers. While he owns just one hit in eight at-bats against Tanaka, Gurriel has the look of a silent assassin waiting to strike big time for us DFSers.

Utility

Carlos Correa, SS, HOU (DK $8000, FD $7000)

C-Squared has struggled in the postseason, but the sight of facing Tanaka should make his bat happy. Correa has two homers and an 1.108 OPS in 15 at-bats against Tanaka. He thrives at home (1.034 OPS) and is the one overdue bat in the Astros’ lineup that could change the complexion of this series if he gets hot.

10/6 DFS Pitching Picks

1) Max Scherzer, WAS @ STL (DK $10,200, FD $11,400)

The easy lay-up among today’s pitchers, I really don’t have to explain why, but here goes: 12.69 K/9, 1.72 BB/9 and an 0.94 HR/9. We’re done here.

2) Zack Greinke, HOU vs. NYY (DK $7,500, FD $8,700)

There’s reason to be hesitant about Greinke after he was lit up for three homers by the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. His season total of 0.91 HR/9 suggests it was a blip on the radar, along with his 36.2% hard contact rate.

3) Adam Wainwright, STL vs. WAS (DK $6,100, FD $8,000)

A solid September has carried into October for Wainwright, who has an ERA of 3.06 at home since the start of the 2015 season. There’s risk with a hurler who has allowed opponents to record a .286 batting average against him since the All-Star break, but Wainwright’s postseason experience will help attract users.

4) Masahiro Tanaka (DK $7,300, FD $8,000)

Tanaka has a 2.25 ERA against the Astros this season, yet it was the only time he saw them. I’m not sure I’d want to risk him, even with the friendly salary.

10/12 DFS Hitters

10/12 DFS C: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. NYY (DK $3600, FD $2500)

Plug him into the eighth spot, A.J. Hinch. After all, Chirinos does have an .887 OPS with nine homers when placed there.

10/12 DFS 1B: Ryan Zimmerman, WAS at STL (DK $3700, FD $3000)

Going strictly on the track record he has against Adam Wainwright. He’ll be a value play that allows you spend big elsewhere.

10/12 DFS 2B: Jose Altuve, HOU vs. NYY (DK $4700, FD $4300)

Crushed it with a 1.281 OPS in the ALDS. Increased hard contact rate makes Altuve a dangerous presence. If you’re looking at an Astros stack, make sure Altuve is in it.

10/12 DFS 3B: Alex Bregman, HOU vs. NYY (DK $5100, FD $4100)

Damned if his 17.2% walk rate and 12% strikeout rate isn’t the most impressive things of the 2019 season. That 44.7% hard contact rate is lethal.

10/12 DFS SS: Carlos Correa, HOU vs. NYY (DK $4100, FD $3700)

Career-best .289 Isolated Power falls under the radar due to his injuries. Correa also had a career-high 36.9% fly ball rate and a scary good 25.6 HR/FB rate.

10/12 DFS OF: Aaron Judge, NYY at HOU (DK $9000, FD $8500)

Somewhat quiet in the ALDS, Judge had four hits in 10 at-bats in Minute Maid Park. He’s another overdue bat that will pay off.

10/12 DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS at STL

He’s homered twice in the postseason despite a tepid .259 batting average.

10/12 DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. WAS

Friday night aside, Ozuna has mashed it in the postseason, going .360/.407/.727.

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6 years ago 0 comments

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