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Matt Olson

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

9/16 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Rockie Mountain High

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

After another successful weekend, we’re back at it with more hitting picks for Monday’s slate. We only have seven games on this small schedule, though, and that should cause chaos with a Coors Field game overshadowing everything. With that in mind, let’s get into our 9/16 DFS Hitting stacks and hitting picks.

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9/16 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Colorado Rockies vs. Steven Matz

While Matz is a pretty good pitcher, this start in Colorado spells disaster. The reason for that is because he has to pitch in Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. The Rockies are regularly looking at implied run totals in the 6-7 range and that’s just the case here. What makes it even worse is the fact that Matz has been struggling mightily on the road this season. In fact, the southpaw has a 6.08 ERA and 1.56 WHIP outside of Citi Field, regularly getting blown up.

New York Mets vs. Antonio Senzatela

On the other end of the ball, we have to like the Mets too. They also have an implied run total north of six and it’s beneficial for anyone to hit in this ballpark. The ballpark boost paired with this matchup is a recipe for success, with Senzatela pitching to a 6.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season. This is a better offense than many people may think too, with N.Y. ranked 10^th in both wOBA and xwOBA.

Oakland A’s vs. Glenn Sparkman

The Athletics have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball this season, ranking seventh in wOBA and fifth in xwOBA. Those are terrific numbers despite hitting in a pitcher-friendly park, as they should have no problem continuing their success against a guy like Sparkman. The Kansas City righty is currently pitching to a 5.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. That’s why Oakland enters this matchup as a –315 favorite with the A’s projected for nearly six runs.

9/16 DFS Hitting Catcher

Yasmani Grandal, MIL vs. SD

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,200)

Grandal is always one of the first catchers that I consider for this article. Any guy who sits Top-5 at the position in OBP and OPS is definitely worth considering, particularly in such a good matchup. The Padres are sending out the oft-injured Garrett Richards for his first start of the season and that’s terrible news in a ballpark like this. The guy he should really worry about is Grandal, with the backstop generating a .479 OPS and .823 OPS against righties dating back to 2017. Those are actually lower than his season-long averages, with Grandal posting a .385 OBP and .871 OPS in nearly 500 at-bats this year.

9/16 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,700)

Olson is my favorite piece to this Oakland stack, as he’s one of the only guys who actually get the platoon advantage in his favor. So far this season, Olson has a .291 AVG, .385 OBP, .589 SLG and .974 OPS against right-handed pitching. That elite power is backed up by a .291 ISO for the season, which is simply one of the best power strokes in the game. He happens to be scorching right now too, hitting five homers over his last six games.

9/16 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Luiz Arraez, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,600)

It really doesn’t make any sense why this Arraez price remains so low. This dude has done nothing but rake since getting called up, which is evident by his .345 AVG and .861 OPS. He’s actually been even better against right-handers, amassing a .368 AVG, .502 SLG and .917 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That’s bad news for Reynaldo Lopez and his 5.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

9/16 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. NYM

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,700)

The Rockies bats are coming in hot and it’s easy to see why when you see that they have an implied run total approaching seven. Arenado is certainly a big part of that, as he’s fantastic at home and absolutely brilliant against left-handed pitching. In fact, Arenado has a .355 AVG, .663 SLG and 1.079 OPS at home this season and a .367 AVG, .448 OBP, .734 SLG and 1.182 OPS against lefties dating back to 2017.

9/16 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Trevor Story, COL vs. NYM

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,500)

The Arenado splits are truly amazing and it’s incredible just how close he and Story are in terms of success against lefties at home. Dating back to 2017. Story has a .315 AVG, .379 OBP, .625 SLG and 1.004 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. His numbers at home are just as good, accruing a .333 AVG, .401 OBP, .670 SLG and 1.071 OPS at Coors Field so far this year. That’s why these two are the best two-man stack of the day, particularly against a guy who struggles so badly on the road.

9/16 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Michael Conforto, NYM at COL

DK ($5,400) FD ($3,900)

We have to like the other team hitting in Coors Field, as any good hitter is in play at Coors. Conforto is more than that and he should have success against a guy with a 6.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. What it does is give Conforto the advantage from the left side, with the outfielder totaling a .383 OBP, .543 SLG and .926 OPS against right-handers this year.

Khris Davis, OAK vs. KC

DK ($3,700) FD ($3,200)

Don’t look now but Davis is starting to find the power stroke that has allowed him to lead the league in dingers dating back to 2016. That power potential is truly amazing, as Davis has an ISO in the .250-range in that four-year span. Getting to face someone like Sparkman is a good way to keep mashing baseballs and he should be right in the heart of this potent lineup. Over his last seven games. Davis has collected three homers and 10 RBI en route to a .411 OBP, .731 SLG and 1.145 OPS.

Ian Desmond, COL vs. NYM

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Desmond is the final piece to our Rockies stack and he’s really the only one who’s a great value. Like the rest of these righties, he’s made minced meat of lefties all season long. In fact, Desmond has a .291 AVG, .350 OBP, .588 SLG and .938 OPS against southpaws so far this season. His home splits are good too, with Desmond amassing a .291 AVG, .354 OBP, .535 SLG and .890 OPS at Coors Field so far this year.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: America Remembers

5 years ago

written by

To type the numbers 9/11 still causes waves of emotions 18 years after our nation endured one of the darkest days in its history.

I can still shut my eyes and remember how the day went for me in the Satellite Operations office of Fox Sports Net and how a long day of gut-wrenching emotions and visuals that still haunt me culminated in my sitting on the floor of my living room crying uncontrollably at 11:30 pm as the National Anthem was played in the backdrop of the names that were confirmed dead.

Obviously, choosing a winning DFS lineup is secondary to the importance of this date. At the same time, the heroism displayed on that warm Tuesday morning in New York City, Washington D.C. and over the skies of Pennsylvania is a strong reminder of how, as Americans, we persist.

Play Ball, and let’s chase the long green.

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9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Mitch Garver, MIN vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($3,200)

Garver capped his breakout season with his 30th home run of the season in Tuesday’s win over the Nationals. He now has four dingers in his last three games to go along with seven RBI. He’ll enter the day with a 30.5% HR/FB rate and even against Stephen Strasburg, I’d take Garver and his 46.2% hard contact rate. With a 47.7% fly ball rate and a start to September that has seen Garver’s OPS climb above 1.700, he’s a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play behind the plate (although he’ll likely serve as the DH).

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK at HOU

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,600)

Like Garver, Olson reached the 30-HR barrier on Tuesday, serving as the ring leader of the A’s 21-7 payback to the Astros. Olson swatted a pair of homers, drove in four runs and scored three times to pace what was a 25-hit assault. He’s been locked in of late, having recorded hits in nine of his last 11 games that includes five homers. As hard as Garver has hit the ball, Olson has been more pronounced with his swing, delivering hard contact at a 51.2% rate. You have to like the fact Olson is getting line drives at a solid rate (24.7%) while also driving the ball consistently (43.2% fly ball rate). Chances are good he’ll be facing a taxed Astros pitching staff, making him an even stronger option.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Ketel Marte, ARI at NYM

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,100)

One game after having a run of at least 21.20 FanDuel points in four of his previous five games, Marte got back on track with a pair of hits on Tuesday. Even with an 0-for-4 on Monday, Marte is hitting .481 (13-for-27) in his last eight games with three homers and 10 RBI. Although he hasn’t hit the Mets well this season, two of his seven hits resulted in slow trots around the bases. Good things indeed do happen when your Isolated Power improves by 90 points (.177 last season, .267 this year). Marte has nearly doubled his HR/FB%, standing currently at 20.4% after a 10.9% output in 2018. His .340 BABIP is yet another reason why he’s a solid 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks member.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY at DET

DK ($9,400), FD ($4,000)

With D.J. LeMahieu getting Tuesday off, Torres filled the leadoff role. He proceeded to show why he costs a grip at DraftKings by leading off with his 36th homer of the season, helping to give him his fourth of double-digit scoring at FanDuel in his last five games. Torres has a “modest” .815 OPS against lefties (the Tigers will start southpaw Matthew Boyd tonight) yet his road OPS hovers near .950. He has an OPS over 1.200 over the past week and should be able to maintain his 42% fly ball rate.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Hunter Dozier, KC at CWS

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,900)

Dozier has multi-hit games in five of his last seven outings and has hit the White Sox well this season. In 48 at-bats against the Pale Hose, Dozier has a .354 batting average with three homers and nine RBI. The ability to draw walks has been a factor in Dozier’s 2019, as he sports a 10.3% walk rate along with elevating his BABIP from .296 last season to .342 this year. His 44.1% fly ball rate plays well in hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Park, even against a red-hot hurler like Reynaldo Lopez, who gets the nod for Chicago tonight.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Austin Meadows, TB at TEX

DK ($5,200), FD ($3,900)

With four homers in his last six games, Meadows is putting the Rays on his young back and carrying them closer to the AL Wild Card with each swing. Tuesday marked the sixth time in the last nine games Meadows have produced at least 20 FanDuel points and is on a September tear that has him hitting .536 with eight of his 15 hits going for extra bases. The line drives Meadows hit in the minors are now becoming homers, evidenced by his 18.7% HR/FB rate. If the Rays peg him in the #2 spot, Meadows is a very strong 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks play, as his OPS is at 1.400 when hitting second.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,000)

A three-hit effort on Tuesday continued Acuna’s success against Phillies pitching this season, as he is now at .357 with three homers, 10 RBI and 18 runs scored against them. Acuna smokes the ball at a 44.8% hard contact rate, but he’s becoming a complete hitter. He’s reduced his pull rate and is more of an all-fields hitter who is at 24.8% in HR/FB rate despite hitting fly balls 37.7% of the time. Philadelphia pitcher Zach Eflin has been an easy mark for Braves hitters this season, allowing 12 earned runs in 5.2 innings, so count on Acuna to help the Atlanta bats as extended batting practice against Eflin.

9/11 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Wil Myers, SD vs. CHC

DK ($4,100), FD ($2,800)

Myers is looking to finish the season strong, stretching his hitting streak to 10 games on Tuesday night. Myers has added 21 points to his batting average since August 30 and is a bargain play at FanDuel. Keep that in mind as he has also been a solid hitter against lefties, producing an .898 OPS despite a .233 batting average. The recent run has helped boost his walk rate to 10.2% along with one of the few times this season Myers’ 48.3% hard contact rate is being put to good use.

9/11 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/11 Hitting Stack of the Day: Oakland A’s: The Astros will go with righty Jose Urquidy, so stack the Oakland lefty bats starting with Olson. Seth Brown ($3400 FanDuel) should be in the lineup as well. Jurickson Profar ($3900 DraftKings) is a solid stack option, but also keep righty bats Khris Davis (a cheap $2700 at FD) and Marcus Semien ($4600 DK) as options.

9/11 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: As previously mentioned, the Braves have hammered Eflin. Acuna is a lock, but Dansby Swanson ($2800 FD) is a value play. Brian McCann ($3500 DK)gets a favorable lefty/righty matchup as well. You have to like Josh Donaldson ($5100 DK) and Ozzie Albies ($3300 FD) among the buffet table of options.

9/11 Hitting Stack to Consider: Tampa Bay Rays: Texas starter Ariel Jurado has a 6.93 ERA in his last 10 appearances while hitters have teed off on him at a .320 clip and 1.60 WHIP. Meadows is front and center in a stack, with Avisail Garcia ($4300 DK) is a good 9/11 DFS Hitting Picks sleeper.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks and Picks: It’s Easy to Be Brave

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today we’ll be examining a fine 12-game Tuesday 9/3 DFS MLB slate (one without a super-obvious Coors Field game), looking to embrace the variance, find some compelling stacks to focus on in our lineup builds, and list some viable hitters in GPPs – as well as some additional plays that might be worth a punt or contrarian pivot.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

AtlantaBraves vs. Wilmer Font/T.J. Zeuch

The Braves have the highest implied total (6 runs) on the 12-game 7:05 slate, with the Dodgers close behind. Both Font and Zeuch (the proposed primary reliever who’ll be making his MLB debut) are RHPs — so it’s safe to stack the 1-5 hitters as there are no weak links in the bunch. Don’t overthink this one – the Braves have punished RHPs, are a better offense at home this season, and have plenty of value bats if you’re building a non-traditional stack.

LosAngeles Dodgers vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

The Dodgers have six hitters in their projected lineup with ISOmarks north of .200 against RHP, including some of the best xwOBA marks on the slate(Will Smith at .487 and Cody Bellinger at .446). Feel free to attack Chi Chi’sterrible splits against lefties regardless of the barely beneficial shift awayfrom Coors. Joc Pederson (who you will have to double check on because he leftMonday’s game after a leaping catch at the wall), Corey Seager, Bellinger, A.J.Pollock and Matt Beaty should be the core of this group.

ClevelandIndians vs. Dylan Cease

It’s been a few days, but the Indians bats came alive last night and knocked around Ross Detwiler, and the matchup against Dylan Cease shouldn’t offer too much resistance. Cease is vulnerable to both RHBs and lefties, so it doesn’t really matter which side of the plate your stacked players hit from – just make sure you’re building around a core of Francisco Lindor, Oscar Mercado and Carlos Santana. You have myriad options for additional power bats in the heart of the lineup and a bit further down (Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jakob Bauers), so it might be worth it to build some variety if you’re multi-entering in GPPs.

9/3 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Minnesota Twins at Rick Porcello

Boston Red Sox vs. Randy Dobnak

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matthew Strahm

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dereck Rodriguez

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sandy Alcantara

9/3 DFS Hitting Catcher

JasonCastro, MIN at BOS

DK ($3,700) FD($2,400)

We’re looking for some value at catcher given some of the prices of these bigger bats in the stacks we need to fit, and Castro is exactly the type of hitter we’re looking for – a sneaky option with ample power and plenty of bats surrounding him. If the Twins roll out Castro against Porcello, I’d be comfortable with the BvP data (5-for-13 with a HR) and overall against RHP (.476 xwOBA).

9/3 DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($5,100) FD($4,400)

You’re going to get Josh Bell at a very low ownership, and while the $5,100 price seems oppressive, the Pirates still sport a decent implied total and Bell (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) might fly under the radar in this slate. The Pirates aren’t the safest stack, but Bell stands out as an excellent one-off, especially if you’re steering clear of Freddie Freeman and looking for a more contrarian play.

9/3 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

KoltenWong, STL vs. SF

DK($4,300) FD ($3,100)

Wong is red-hot at the plate, with a seven-game hitting streak and a triple in three straight games (the record is five, by Chief Wilson in 1912). A streaky hitter who’s having an excellent second half (.381/.462/.545 in 42 games since the break), Wong’s got an affordable price tag and could be banging out some more extra base hits from that 2-slot against the Giants.

9/3 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

RafaelDevers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,400) FD($4,100)

Devers and the Red Sox are a formidable stack against just about anyopposing pitcher, but this is an especially tasty matchup with rookie Randy Dobnakon the mound for the Twins. Since Anthony Rendon and Alex Bregman aren’t in idealspots Tuesday, I’m rolling with Devers and his obscene metrics vs. RHP (.429xwOBA, .247 ISO). He’s never far from a run-producing spot and he’s got all theprotection he needs surrounded by the Boston sluggers.

9/3 DFS Hitting Shortstop

AdalbertoMondesi, KC vs. DET

DK ($5,200) FD($3,100)

Mondesiobviously missed being a part of the Royals lineup, because he went 4-for-5with two runs scored and three SB in the Royals’ 6-4 comeback win against theOrioles on Sunday. He’s facing a LHP in Daniel Norris on Tuesday and he’sclearly recovered from his shoulder injury – and while the price on DK issteep, he’s very affordable on FD.

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9/3 DFS Hitting Outfielders

MattJoyce, ATL vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD($2,400)

Joyceis a classic value GPP play because of his power potential and assault on RHP(.392 xwOBA). It’s also helpful that both the projected starter and primaryreliever are right handers – which could give him an extra AB or two before he mustface a lefty out of the bullpen or get pulled for a pinch hitter or defensivereplacement. In a search for some bargains to offset the rest of the Bravesstack, Joyce could be a key cog.

MaxKepler, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,300) FD($3,500)

MaxKepler is batting leadoff for one of the top stacks of the day, so he’s definitelya fly ball hitter to build around despite his steep price tag on DraftKings. He’scoming off a 2-for-5 day in a win over Detroit and is slashing .258/.339/.537with 36 home runs and 90 RBI over 127 games in 2019. He’s an excellent roadhitter (.266/.357/.548) and he’s a real bargain on FanDuel at just $3,500.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD($3,100)

It’s always a weather-dependent recommendation to use or fade batsin Wrigley, so make sure there’s not a stiff breeze blowing in before youcommit to Schwarber here. The enigmatic Schwarber does his best work at homevs. RHP (125 wRC+ in 2019, .250/.355/.545 slash), and while he’s not the besthitter in high leverage spots (65 wRC+), that’s a figure that’s bound toimprove. King Felix is not the pitcher he once was, and it’s a fine spot forlefty mashers against him.

Additional 9/3 DFS hitting options (by position):

C: Carson Kelly, Chris Herrmann (value)

1B: Anthony Rizzo, Matt Olson

2B: Brock Holt (value), Eduardo Escobar

3B: Matt Carpenter, Abraham Toro

SS: Corey Seager, Nick Ahmed

OF: Matt Beaty, Dexter Fowler, Nick Castellanos, Adam Jones. Franmil Reyes, Oscar Mercado

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/28 DFS Hitting Picks and Prop Plays: Story Telling

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Whenever we have games spread all throughout the day, I try my best to cater to every DFS player out there. What’s interesting here is that we only have three games during the day, so I’ll only offer up two plays from that slate. That should help DFS players who want to play both schedules and that’s our goal here at Win Daily Sports! So, let’s get into our 8/28 DFS Hitting picks!

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8/28 DFS Hitting Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,900)

Trying to pick a catcher is always the toughest part of this article but Chirinos is a nice value on this slate. The reason for that is because of his matchup, with the Astros facing Ryan Yarbrough. While the Tampa lefty has been brilliant this season, his 3.89 xFIP indicates that he has some negative regression headed his way. That’s huge for a guy like Chirinos, with the Astros backstop generating a .447 OBP and .982 OPS against southpaws so far this season.

8/28 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK at KC

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,500)

A power hitter like Olson becomes a great pick against a homer-prone pitcher like Jakob Junis. A 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from Junis is bad enough but his 58 dingers allowed since 2018 is one of the worst marks in baseball too. That’s got to light up Olson’s eyes, with the left-handed slugger posting a .511 SLG and .260 ISO since 2017. He’s been even better against right-handers in that span, tallying a .351 OBP, .543 SLG and .894 OPS against them. Olson is feeling it right now too, amassing a .382 OBP over his last 17 fixtures.

8/28 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Gleyber Torres, NYY at SEA

DK ($4,600) FD ($4,400)

Let’s kick off our day-slate recommendations with the hottest second baseman in the league. This dude has been absolutely ridiculous the last few weeks and it’s scary just how good this 22-year-old kid could be. Over his last 22 games, Torres has 13 homers en route to a .786 SLG and 1.126 OPS, with 10 of those dingers coming in his last 15 fixtures. Those fantastic numbers since the All-Star break have led to a breakout season with 33 dingers in total. Torres has a career .531 SLG and .869 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor too and we definitely have to consider him against a guy like Justus Sheffield.

8/28 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at CWS

DK ($5,500) FD ($3,900)

Sano is a favorite of mine and I’m just thrilled to see him hitting so well. A .579 SLG, .923 OPS, .378 wOBA and .332 ISO is obviously all career-highs, as it really shows just how powerful this dude is. His .250 career ISO is still a rather impressive mark and it’s clear that things are finally clicking for the big man. The reason we like him today is because he gets the platoon advantage against a terrible lefty. The Twins face Ross Detwiler, who’s got an unsightly 6.29 ERA and 1.72 WHIP dating back to 2015. That’s why Minnesota is projected for more than six runs, with Sano accumulating a .394 wOBA, .341 ISO, .612 SLG and .966 OPS against left-handers this season.

8/28 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Trevor Story, COL vs. BOS

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,300)

While this isn’t a great matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, Story is always in play at home against a lefty. Let’s start with his Coors Field numbers, with Story totaling a .326 AVG, .399 OBP, .683 SLG and 1.082 OPS at home this season. That’s pretty close to his numbers against lefties, with the shortstop posting a .383 OBP, .637 SLG and 1.020 OPS since the beginning of 2017. That means he’s hard t fade anytime he faces a lefty at home and Rodriguez surely has to be scared of Coors Field with the Rockies projected for more than six runs.

8/28 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS at COL

DK ($5,600) FD ($4,700)

How can this possibly go wrong? Arguably the best pure hitter in baseball hitting in Coors Field is a recipe for success, particularly someone as hot as Martinez. Over his last 48 games, J.D. is putting together a 349 .AVG .420 OBP, .646 SLG and 1.066 OPS. Those are actually not that far off of his season-long numbers and he should do some serious damage in a place like Coors Field. What we like here is that he gets to face Peter Lambert, who’s pitching to a 6.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season.

Aaron Judge, NYY at SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

We foreshadowed this a bit with our final sentence in the Torres write-up, as we love the Yankees on this slate. Any time they face a weak left-hander, all of the powerful righties are in play. Judge is just that, as he and the Bronx Bombers will oppose Sheffield and his 6.43 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. That’s truly frightening against a stud like Judge, who actually leads the league in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Those elite advanced statistics have been really shining recently, with Judge hitting four doubles and five homers over his last 14 games. Not to mention, he also has a .478 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.144 OPS against southpaws so far this season and is priced way too low on DK.

Franmil Reyes, CLE at DET

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

After a couple of stud outfielders, let’s give you a value play. Reyes is just that and it’s truly hard to understand why his price remains so low. We’re talking about a slugger with a .513 SLG and .271 ISO being priced around a bunch of minor leaguers. What makes it even more bizarre is that Reyes has four dingers over his last three games while knocking out six homers in total over his last 13 fixtures. That means the power stroke is strong right now, which is not a good thing for Jordan Zimmermann and his 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Aaron Civale Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Adam Plutko just struck out nine Tigers on Tuesday and I expect Civale to have a similar performance. The rookie is pitching to a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and gets to face a Detroit lineup who ranks last in runs scored, xwOBA and K rate.

MKF Record 30-22

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Stacks for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 12

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

Welcome back everyone! I know we have a few “new” guys on the Win Daily staff, as well as a few subscribers. I just wanted to welcome all of you. This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 13-game main slate.

**Please check back this afternoon between 5-6pm EST. Possible updates to lines once starting lineups are released.

New York Yankees

vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 7.10 Runs

The Yankees lost two games in a row going into the All-Star break and had only lost two in their previous 18. They are clearly the best team in baseball right now, boasting a 6.5 game lead on the Rays and 9.0 on the Red Sox. We all know how tricky the AL East can be after the break. These teams can close the gap rather quickly given their talents. Look for the Yankees to keep their foot on the gas and truck their way into the post season. Aaron Sanchez carries a 6.16 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 5.57 SIERA into tonight’s game. His splits are identical, holding .a 361 wOBA, .391 OBP, and .451 OBP on the year. Coming out of the break, The Yankees are slashing to a .364 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 126 WRC+. They are hitting well above their season averages.

Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Mike Leake (SEA): 5.60 Runs

Mike Leake hasn’t been awful this season, carrying a 4.32 ERA, 4.89 FIP, and 4.55 SIERA into tonight’s game. These +4.00 ERA stat lines seem more of the norm this season with the elevated scoring. Leake has identical splits, holding a .330 wOBA, .303 OBP, and .493 SLG through 114. innings pitched. He has the displeasure of facing an Angels team who hold the lowest strikeout rate in MLB. They average 6.87 strikeouts per game on the year. The Angels are slashing .to a 321 wOBA, .191 ISO, and .458 SLG to right handed pitching over a two week span coming out of the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Mike Trout ($4700 FD|$5300 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), and Justin Upton ($3500 FD|$3800 DK).

Milwaukee Brewers

vs. RHP Shaun Anderson (SFG): 5.60 Runs

Shaun Anderson heads into tonight’s matchup holding a 4.23 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 5.28 SIERA through 55 innings pitched. He has identical splits with a .320 wOBA, .331 OBP, and .417 SLG. I’m really hoping for a healthy Christian Yelich here tonight as he has been experiencing some lower back discomfort on and off this season. The Brewers come out of the break slashing to a .297 wOBA, .223 ISO, and .423 SLG to right handed pitching. The Brewers are only a half game back on the Cubs, who actively seem to be trying to hand the Brewers the division, but they have been having issues of their own. An unhealthy Yelich certainly does not give this lineup a ton of appeal. Look for the Brewers to get it together coming off the break.

Preferred DFS Stacks Build: Christian Yelich ($4800 FD|$5200 DK), Eric Thames ($3200 FD|$4800 DK), Yasmani Grandal ($3500 FD|$4900 DK), and Mike Moustakas ($3900 FD|$4700 DK) if you prefer a full stack on FD.

Honorable DFS Stacks Mentions

San Diego Padres vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (ATL): 4.30 Runs

Preferred Stack: Hunter Renfroe ($3000 FD|$4700 DK), Manny Machado ($3900 FD|$4100 DK), and Manuel Margot ($2600 FD|$3600 DK).

Oakland A’s vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 5.60 Runs

Preferred Stack: Matt Chapman ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Matt Olson ($3800 FD|$5100 DK), Mark Canha ($2800 FD|$4300 DK), and Ramon Laureano ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Robbie Ray (ARZ): 4.50 Runs

Preferred Stack: Paul Goldschmidt ($3200 FD|$3800 DK), Jose Martinez ($2800 FD|$3500 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($2900 FD|$3700 DK).

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Stack Report for Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 7

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide stacks that I recommend for today’s 11 game main slate. I’ve also included my favorite one-offs and value plays.

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. LHP Gregory Soto (DET): 6.30 Runs

The Red Sox come in with the highest implied run total on the slate today. I do not expect Soto to pitch more than an inning or two but once he comes out he has an awful bullpen behind him. The Red Sox are slashing a league best .382 wOBA, .216 ISO, and .920 OPS over the last two weeks. Greg Soto carries 8.06 ERA, 6.29 FIP, and 5.88 SIERA over a small sample of 22 innings pitched. He is atrocious to righties. They are slashing .415 wOBA, .632 SLG, and .391 OBP against him. The Red Sox have a lot of right handed power early in the lineup and Soto struggles there the most as indicated above. This makes guy’s like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez early on a priority. The bullpen should open things up for Rafael Devers to crack the slate open, although he also hits lefties well.

Preferred Stack: J.D. Martinez ($4000 FD|$4700 DK), Mookie Betts ($4200 FD|$4900 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5000 DK), and Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5600 DK).

Toronto Blue Jays Stack

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 5.95 Runs

Asher Wojciechowski has bounced around multiple farm systems since 2010 and has limited big show experience other than the 62 innings pitched he tossed for the Reds in 2017. Through his career, Wojciechowski carries 6.62 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and 4.25 SIERA. He surrenders 1.81 HR/9 over that same time span and typically gives up over 50% fly ball rate. The Blue Jays offense has hit extremely well against right handed pitching the last few weeks. They are slashing a massive .399 wOBA, .318 ISO, and 152 WRC+ in that time span. I like this lineup a lot more when Randal Grichuk is in it. He is currently projected to start but is nursing a back injury. Boost to Toronto if he plays today.

Preferred Stack: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3800 FD|$5500 DK), Cavan Biggio ($3800 FD|$4700 DK), Freddie Galvis $3400 FD|$4300 DK), Eric Sogard ($3400 FD|$4700 DK) and Justin Smoak ($3000 FD|$4100 DK) are my preferred plays. Danny Jansen ($2900 FD|$3800 DK) is okay for value but I typically won’t waste my utility spot on a catcher. Randal Grichuk ($3200 FD|$3800 DK) if he plays, if not Brandon Drury ($2500 FD|$3300 DK) is a decent value play.

Chicago Cubs Stack

vs. RHP Ivan Nova (CHW): 6.00 Runs

I’m going to jump on this Cubs train before it passes me by this weekend. This team has quietly hit very well to right handed pitching over the last two weeks, slashing .354 wOBA, .233 ISO, and .515 SLG. Ivan Nova carries 5.92 ERA, 5.43 FIP, and 5.06 SIERA into today’s matchup. Nova isn’t giving up a ton of fly balls, but he does have a .339 BABIP to compliment his 45% ground ball rate. His splits are awful and close to identical. He holds a .386 wOBA, .512 SLG, and .368 OBP on the season. Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, and Jason Heyward all sit in the top 45 hitters in the league with the best HR/FB ratio.

Preferred Stack: Jason Heyward ($3500 FD|$4800 DK), Kyle Schwarber ($3900 FD|$4300), Anthony Rizzo ($4300 FD|$4800 DK), Wilson Contreras ($3600 FD|$5300 DK), and Javier Baez ($4100|$5300). I have a ton of interest in Robel Garcia ($2000 FD|$2200 DK). He’s essentially a free square with the fantastic matchup and minimum pricing. Lock him in.

Honorable Mentions

Houston Astros Stack

vs. LHP Jose Saurez (LAA): 5.90 Runs

Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($3600 FD|$3900 DK), Alex Bregman ($4100 FD|$4700 DK), and Yordan Alvarez ($4200 FD|$4700 DK).

Baltimore Orioles Stack

vs. RHP Trent Thornton(TOR): 4.55 Runs

One-Offs and Value Plays

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting Picks for 6/26: Phill Ins and More

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

My DFS write-ups and Monkey Knife Fight picks have been doing some serious damage recently and we’re going to look to build off that momentum here. After going 2-0 on my MKF picks on Monday, I am now 13-6 over my last 19 picks. Check out Scott Engel for MKF Picks today.

Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. NYM

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,900)

The simple fact is, this is one of the three best hitting catchers in the game and he’s being priced outside the Top 10 at his position in DFS. This is a guy who’s finished either first or second at the catcher position for three straight years in traditional DFS scoring and it’s just a matter of time before he returns to that form. Facing Jason Vargas is a good way to start his inevitable run, with the Mets lefty pitching to a 5.30 xFIP this season. Realmuto is having a huge year with the platoon advantage in his favor too, posting an .864 OPS against left-handers.

First Base

Matt Olson, OAK at STL

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,200)

I always like to use Olson in DFS when he faces a weak righty and that alone makes this price hard to understand. We’re talking about a guy with a career .867 OPS and .528 SLG against right-handed pitching, as his .252 career ISO is quite the mark too. That’s absurd power potential from a player priced so cheaply and we love him against Adam Wainwright. Not only does Wainwright have a 4.72 ERA and 1.43 WHIP dating back to 2016, he’s also allowing left-handed hitters to post a .325 AVG, .582 SLG and .404 xwOBA against him this season.

Second Base

Max Muncy, LAD at ARI

DK ($5,000) FD ($3,800)

Muncy has been one of the best hitters in the Majors since last season and he’s always in play against a weak righty. Since joining the Dodgers, Muncy is posting a .393 OBP and .957 OPS against right-handed pitching. A career ISO approaching .300 shows just how potent of a bat this dude has too. Facing Taylor Clarke is simply the DFS icing on the cake, with the Arizona righty pitching to a 6.48 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. If you’re playing on DraftKings, you can’t overlook Jose Altuve at $4,100 either.

Third Base

Renato Nunez, BAL vs. SD

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Nunez has had a stellar year for the Orioles and it’s hard to understand why these DFS sites continue to disrespect him with these price tags. The slugging third baseman has absolutely obliterated left-handed pitching this season, to the tune of a .560 SLG and .884 OPS. That’s all you can ask for from someone priced so cheaply in DFS and he usually finds himself in the cleanup spot against a lefty. Matt Strahm’s 4.85 ERA and 1.27 WHIP make him a guy we don’t need to avoid either.

Shortstop

Jean Segura, PHI vs. NYM

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,600)

Segura was in my DFS article on Monday and he treated us with one of his best games of the season. That extended a rather impressive streak from Segura, entering this game in the midst of a six-game hitting streak. In that six-game span, Segura is hitting .346 while providing a 1.000 OPS. That hot stretch makes him particularly intriguing against the aforementioned Jason Vargas, with Segura posting a 1.050 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season.

Outfield

Shohei Ohtani, LAA vs. CIN

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,500)

It’s strange to see Ohtani outfield eligible on both sites but it’s quite the treat for us DFS players. The Japanese import has simply been one of the best players in baseball since joining the Majors last season. That’s evident by the fact that he currently ranks Top 20 in OPS and xwOBA in that span. What makes him really enticing today is that he gets the platoon advantage in his favor. In his career, Ohtani has a .604 SLG and .969 OPS against right-handed pitching. Tanner Roark is a guy we definitely want to exploit too, pitching to a 4.32 FIP and 1.32 WHIP so far this season. If you’re playing on DraftKings, go ahead and stack a $4,000 Justin Upton with Ohtani.

Joc Pederson, LAD at ARI

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,100)

When the Dodgers face a righty, Pederson automatically becomes one of the best DFS plays on the board. Not only does Pederson always lead off against right-handed pitching, he also does some serious damage out of that spot. That’s evident by his .598 SLG and .943 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. All 20 of his homers have actually come against righties and it’s hard to fade him against a guy like Clarke.

Franmil Reyes, SD at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,800)

This is yet another disrespectful DFS price tag, as Reyes is simply one of the best power hitters in the league. Not only does he rank Top 10 in exit velocity, his .371 xwOBA and .288 ISO speaks loudly too. That’s why he has 36 homers in just 494 career at-bats, which too is one of the best rates in baseball. While I expect Dylan Bundy to rack up the Ks in this game, his propensity to allow homers makes him a great target for someone like Reyes. Since 2017, Bundy has allowed 84 dingers, which happens to be the most in the Majors in that span.

5 years ago 0 comment

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