Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No heavy rain in the forecast tonight, but there are a few light showers in the San Francisco area for Braves-Giants. Nothing that should keep us off the game.
Burnes is coming off an 8.0 IP, 14 K (and no-hit) masterpiece in Cleveland on Sept. 11 where he racked up 76 FD points. The only thing that gives me pause is the fact that after a 15 K game against this Cubs team on Aug. 11, he only recorded 3 Ks in his next outing versus the Cards. But that’s nitpicking. He’s the best arm of the slate with the highest floor and ceiling, and it’s not particularly close. Unless he gets lit up, he’s probably looking at a 40-point floor and 70-point upside again.
I think we probably need to find a way to fit Burnes into most of our GPP builds tonight as well, but McCullers in a home matchup against the Diamondbacks does offer some opportunity for salary relief with about 75-80% of the upside that the Milwaukee hurler does. The biggest knock against him tonight is the fact that Lance isn’t great against lefties, and Arizona (a high strikeout team for sure) could roll out up to seven against McCullers in this game. Still — there are not any really cheap options on this slate that don’t involve massive risk, so I think the best bet is still using a top arm and finding value in the bats.
Lynn is the only other pitcher on the slate with 65-70 points upside, but it’s ben a while since we’ve seen that kind of dominance out of the right-hander. The appeal here is the tasty matchup facing the Rangers, a small cost savings from Burnes and lower projected ownership, but I’m not sure that sacrificing the upside and floor is worth rolling him out in any more than one or two GPP lineups out of 10. McCullers and Lynn project for similar outcomes tonight.
It’ll be damn near impossible to afford the top bats (Jose Altuve at $4,200, Alex Bregman at $4,300 and Yordan Alvarez at $4,000) from Houston tonight in lineups that lock in Burnes, but if we grab some value bats from the bottom of this potent lineup, we can get a piece of this high projected run total (5.7) and still get exposure. I’m looking primarily at righty killers Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yuri Gurriel ($3,300) with Jose Siri ($2,700) and Jake Meyers ($2,400). Chas McCormick ($2,400) is obviously also an option if one of the other OF sits.
Attacking objectively bad sinkerballer Daulton Jeffries, who is starting for the A’s, is where we can find the necessary firepower to build a winning lineup. If we start out our FD builds with Burnes and sinker destroyer extraordinaire Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), we have $2,771 per remaining hitter left in salary. This leaves us with the value options in the aforementioned stack and guys like Brandon Marsh ($2,400), Darrin Fletcher ($2,600), Max Stassi ($2,400), Jared Walsh ($3,000) and Luis Rengifo ($2,300) — who hits sinkers particularly well, as Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.18 article.
If we’re grabbing some Angels, there’s no reason we can’t get some of the other side of this matchup as well, as the Athletics offer some excellent value options in their lineup facing lefty Jose Suarez. Those bargain bats include 2B/3B/UTIL eligible leadoff man Josh Harrison ($2,900), Chad Pinder ($2,200), Yan Gomes ($2,600) (or Sean Murphy at $2,100) and Khris Davis ($2,100). If there’s room for Mark Canha ($3,200), Starling Marte ($3,800) and Matt Olson ($4,200), that’s great — we could even mix and match and exclusively game stack OAK-LAA — avoiding the chalky Houston bats altogether in some of our GPPs.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.
Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Derby. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Derby contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000. Last week there was only 1 winner and that person walked away with $5,000!
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some homers
Matt Olson vs. Jordan Lyles
Olson is my top target for a home run tonight and that’s due to Jordan Lyles being one of my favorite pitchers to chase homers against. Lyles is someone that gives up a ton of fly balls. His fly ball rate over the past 30 days is sitting close to 50%. Anytime you put that many balls in the air you run a big risk of giving up homers.
Well, Lyles has done just that with 5 homers over his last 23 innings of work. Olson matches up very well in terms of pitch mix tonight. Lyles throws his fastball more than 50% of the time vs. lefties. Against fastballs this year Olson is slugging .546 to go along with a 54% hard hit rate. Look for Olson to hit one out of Globe Life Park tonight. Confidence Level – Very High
JT Realmuto vs. Garrett Richards
Here’s some righty on righty crime. Since sticky stuff gate Richards has been a different pitcher. Not in the good way. Over the past month since spider tack was taken away Richards has been giving up a hard hit rate of nearly 43% with a swing strike rate below 8%. So he’s giving up a ton of hard contact.
When you give up that much hard contact it’s only a matter of time before the ball leaves the park. Well against Richards, it has. He’s given up 6 homers in the past 21 innings. I’m siding with Realmuto in this match-up because he’s such an extreme fly ball hitter.
His fly ball rate over the past week is 63%. Pitch wise Realmuto also matches up very well. Richards is mostly throwing his 4 seamer these days. That is a pitch that Realmuto has been crushing this year. On the year he has a .638 slugging and a 65% hard hit rate. If Richards leaves one of those fastballs over the plate to Realmuto tonight, there’s no doubt the Green Monster won’t be able to hold it. Confidence Level – Highish
Rhys Hoskins vs. Garrett Richards
A lot of what I said for Realmuto also stands true for Richards. Hoskins is also an extreme fly ball hitter. Over the past week he’s at 61%. Hoskins is red hot over the past week too with 3 homers and a 1.462 OPS. I don’t see someone like that Richards being able to slow him down. Look for Hoskins to add to the home run total tonight against Richards. Confidence Level – High
Xander Bogaerts vs. Vincent Velasquez
When I attack Velasquez I like to attack him from the right side as he gives up a whole lot more power to them than he does lefties. Righties have a 48% fly ball rate against him this year and a .253 ISO. The two power righties from the Red Sox that automatically come to mind are JD Martinez and Xander Bogaerts. I’m siding with Bogaerts here because he lines up a bit better against Velasquez.
Velasquez is going to mostly throw his 4-seamer to righties as he throws it more than 50% of time to them. On the year Bogaerts has a .600 slugging percentage and a 54% hard hit rate to 4-seamers. His estimated slugging % is almost equal to slugging % so we know he’s performing as expected to it. Look for Bogaerts to take Velasquez deep tonight. Confidence Level – Medium
These are my top picks for home runs tonight. All 3 of these pitchers have shown the propensity to give up homers and that’s what we want to chase here.
Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
Weather is not a huge issue tonight (as much as it is for the day games), so let’s dive right in!
Kershaw is the only top MLB DFS arm we should really consider tonight, since there’s a $2,500 drop off to the next available SP (LAA RHP Alex Cobb at $8,500 — someone we can consider as a GPP pivot). Adam Strangis explains in the 7/3 Starting Rotation article why anchoring cash game lineups to Kershaw makes a lot of sense, and we can probably use the same rationale for single-entry GPP. Kershaw’s K rate is high enough that the elevated pricing on FD isn’t a dealbreaker, and the Nationals do have some K potential in their lineup.
The Indians aren’t pushovers, but Odorizzi has been pretty effective this season with and xFIP under 4.00 and a K rate over a batter an inning. Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and they rank just 21st against the fastball — Odorizzi’s number one pitch in both effectiveness and usage. He’s a slight favorite, has averaged over 30 FD per outing over his last four starts, and his price allows us to roster basically any hitters we want in the high total games in Coors Field and/or Oakland.
He’s a contrarian play because the price is still a little higher than we’d like to play on a slate where Odorizzi is much cheaper, but his upside is just as high. Cobb sports a 2.79 xFIP this season and the Orioles aren’t especially great at knocking around RHPs. There’s risk here, as we know this crew in Baltimore can manufacture a few runs with that potent top 4 — but if Cobb can get through that group a couple times without major incident, he’s got a great shot at eclipsing his 30 point FD projections and total of about 30 FD points. 40-45 FD points (helped by a QS and win) isn’t unrealistic,
This lineup is filled with lefty mashers, and it’s a group that really came alive in extra innings last night — something I believe they’ll carry over into tonight’s matchup. You really can’t go wrong with Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300), Tyler O’Neill ($4,000 – DTD, finger) and Harrison Bader ($3,200) as your power four, with Tommy Edman ($3,700) Dylan Carlson ($3,400), Yadier Molina ($3,500) and Paul DeJong ($3,800) as your main alternates. The Rockies are all in play as well — especially Trevor Story ($4,400) , C.J. Cron ($3,900) and a cheap Yonathan Daza ($3,100 — though it will be hard to stack the entire game.
The Giants were my value stack last night against the A’s, and while they did score 6 runs, they didn’t break the slate. Once again, they have enormous upside tonight with these hitters against “Journeyman Jake” Faria and his hittable ensemble of pitches: LaMonte Wade ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,500), Brandon Crawford ($3,000). There are some other bats to be considered (Steven Duggar at $2,800 and a very cheap Donovan Solano at $2,300), but I’m most interested in the above four for MLB DFS.
There’s a great deal of leverage in stacking this entire game and fading Coors hitters, but let’s start with the Athletics bats we like: Tony Kemp ($2,800), Matt Olson ($3,700), Jed Lowrie ($3,300) and Matt Chapman ($3,600). For Boston, the top hitters are J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500). Again — both sides are fine here, but the Athletics will be severely under-owned against a bad RHP, and that’s a spot I really like considering their above-average 104 wRC+ and .317 wOBA. The Sox do well against LHP (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+), but they’re priced a little higher.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s monster 14-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 4:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The weather concerns in this slate are sparse and minor, and we shouldn’t be concerned about any delays that could impact the pitchers we’re targeting today.
There’s definitely part of me who wants to roster Trevor Bauer, and the Dodgers RHP is certainly worth a look on DK at a discount, but on FD, Burnes makes the most sense as top dog, as he possesses the most strikeout upside on the slate. While some simulations actually have Bauer projected for a higher total tonight (even WinDaily’s model gives Bauer the slight value edge — likely due to the TEX team K rate of 26.8% vs. RHP), the new crackdown on foreign substances has had a detrimental effect on the K numbers of a few pitchers, “Tricky Trevor” included. Burnes, as Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 6/12 Starting Rotation article, is coming off a monster start where he racked up 13K and 70 FD points. He’s a top five MLB pitcher and FanDuel’s scoring allows him and his 18.5% swinging-strike rate (a metric that ranks behind only Jacob deGrom this season) the chance at 60+ each and every night he takes the mound. We’ll have to get a little creative with our hitting stacks to build something we can be confident with, but Burnes is a great option for cash games and I’ll be using him in some GPPs as well.
For the second straight week, Muskrat Joe takes our top value spot. He was serviceable in that role last week with a 10 K outing, but he did get knocked around a little bit to the tune of 9 hits and 3 ER — and the pedestrian 5.0 IP kept him from receiving the crucial quality start bonus we need from our SP. Adam and I both like him for today’s slate, and the fact that he’s kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP under 3.00 in this career year make me happy to recommend him against the Mets. who strike out at a team rate of 23.7%. Musgrove is carrying a career-high 34.2% K rate and limiting his free passes, and the Mets don’t have their usually lefty firepower without a few of their better offensive players. Joe’s unlucky 6/5 start still yielded 36 FD points, and this time he’s the same price and should eclipse the 40 mark.
I was actually a little giddy when I saw that Adam was on Taillon as a GPP value play today, because he’s one of the first options I considered when I thought “contrarian play” for this slate. Taillon is effective against right-handed bats and the Phillies (who have a bunch of them) strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB (26.4% — tied with MIA and MIL). I wouldn’t blame anyone for going a little safer with value options like TB LHP Rich Hill ($7,700 vs. BAL), but the Orioles relatively low K rate (20.2%) vs. LHP makes me think he lacks the same upside, value and leverage for GPPs. If we want to stack some of the best bats, we’ll need what Taillon offers in salary relief to get there.
AS of 11:11 a.m. EST, there’s no line yet on this game, but you’d have to imagine that the high-powered Braves offense is projected for 5+ runs against a 27-year-old rookie making just his second major-league start. Thompson’s minor-league metrics don’t jump off the page and the Braves have just too much firepower to worry about using them. Go with Ronald Acuna ($4,300), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Ozzie Albies ($3,400) and a still-discounted Austin Riley ($2,700) in a four-man stacks, swapping out Albies for value options (and righty mashers) William Contreras ($2,200) and Abraham Almonte ($2,100) if you need the salary savings to get four Braves in your build.
The Brewers have a bunch of risky but potent hitters in their lineup to go along with the consistently excellent bat of Christian Yelich ($3,800), including Avisail Garcia ($2,700), Omar Narvaez ($2,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), Luis Urias ($2,700) and Willy Adames ($2,200). Left-handed OF Jace Peterson is also an option at just $2,200. I’m particularly interested in four-man combos that prominently feature Narvaez, Yelich and Vogelbach as a three-man core, with Urias, Garcia, Peterson and Adames alternately making up the fourth Brewer bat. Giddyup!
Update: Luis Urias is sitting this one out.
The A’s are never all that popular as a team stack on big slates, and today they could be in for an offensive explosion against Jackson Kowar, who carries a 54.00 ERA after one career start — a rocky debut outing against the Angels on Monday. The usual suspects are in play here, from “Mashing” Matt Olson ($3,500) to leadoff hitter Mark Canha ($3,700) and a slew of low-priced options including Tony Kemp (just $2,000!), Jed Lowrie ($2,900) and Sean Murphy ($2,400). I’m also quite enamored with Seth Brown ($2,400) as a risk-reward value option, and I’ll be mixing and matching a few different four-man combinations of these six A’s hitters in my large-field GPP entries.
Update: Both Lowrie and Canha are not starting on Saturday.
Other stacking options: NYY RH bats vs. PHI RHP Vince Velazquez, CIN LH bats vs. COL RHP German Marquez
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No major weather concerns, but there’s a game in Coors with an 11.5 point total and two pitchers, one — LHP Kyle Freeland — with 7 BB in 8.0 IP so far this season and the other, visiting lefty SP Cole Irvin — with a .358 career road wOBA. It goes without saying to get exposure to this game, but we’ll give you some other options to consider.
It’s hard to click any other name at SP on FD, even though Kevin Gausman’s last four starts (averaging 52.5 FD points and 9 K per game) have the edge on deGrom’s last four (43.25 FD points and 8 K per game). The Mets ace costs just $300 more than Gausman and boasts a very silly 1.53 xFIP, compared to a still-impressive 3.07 for the Giants RHP. I’ll have shares of both, but deGrom is still deGOAT.
He’s much harder to trust than the big dogs, but Muskrat Joe (2.08 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 11.72 K/9 in 11 starts this season) is a dynamic pitcher who can break a slate. The salary savings allow you to get whatever Coors game stack you want, albeit with a much higher risk. There are definitely signs that regression is coming, as Musgrove’s .212 BABIP is a solid 80 percentage points lower than his career metric (.294), but I’m willing to ride out another start about this pesky DFS darling.
Gausman’s numbers are amazing this season, and as discussed earlier in the deGrom writeup, he’s on a helluva run with his K numbers. The Cubs strike out at a 25.2% team rate, a lot more than the Padres (21.1%), so I’m inclined to be overweight on Gausman in GPPs for the additional leverage, as deGrom should still earn more ownership. Again — pricing is pretty soft for some of the high-projected-total games, so the big spend SPs will make up about 90 percent of the ownership.
The A’s are a fine choice for top spot too, with Mark Canha ($4,200), Matt Chapman ($3,800), Matt Olson ($4,400)and Jed Lowrie ($3,600) being the obvious four-man stack at or near the top of the order. But they are pretty expensive, and they might be tough to fit in some cases with deGrom or Gausman up top. Canha is an impressive hitter who sees the ball well and makes for an amazing leadoff hitter in Coors, so I’ll haver some Colorado stacks that add on him as the primary one-off for OAK, and then find a three-man stack from another game for leverage. For the Rockies, I prefer C.J. Cron ($3,700), Charlie Blackmon ($3,900), Garrett Hampson ($3,300) and Joshua Fuentes ($3,400) against Irvin (who’s given up 24 hits over his last three starts), though there may be some other necessary value plays depending on who starts.
Rodriguez has been very “gettable” in his last three starts, and while the Yankees strike out a lot, Yankee Stadium is getting hot and humid and the wind is blowing out to right center today, aiding some of those power righty bats in the Bronx. There’s loads of value and upside in rostering a three or four-man Yankees stack tonight, with D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000), Aaron Judge ($3,600) and Gleyber Torres ($2,900) as my three favorite “spends” and Gio Urshela ($2,500), Gary Sanchez ($2,400) and Clint Frazier ($2,300) clocking in with serious bargain prices.
Kikuchi has been okay in 2021, but he hasn’t been missing as many bats in his last few starts, opening himself up for a possible letdown against the home team Angels and their parade of right-handed power bats, including Justin Upton ($3,000), Anthony Rendon ($3,200) and Taylor Ward. ($2,600) And there’s obviously Shohei Ohtani ($4,000), whose metrics against LHP are a bit down in ’21. But $2K punts Phil Gosselin ($2,000) and Juan Lagares ($2,000) are in play (if they play) tonight, as Gosselin boasts great numbers vs. LHP (.460 wOBA in 26 AB this season)
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.
I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.
The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.
Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.
The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)
The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.
It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Baseball is back and I’ve got five hitters for you to consider in large-field DK GPPs for 7/28 MLB DFS, where it pays to be fearless!
If I’m spending up at catcher today, it’s for Smith, who sports a.410 road wOBA in his career and has a lofty .322 career ISO in 206 plate appearances.He’s a reliable power source who stands a good shot at going deep in MinuteMaid Park. We can find Wilson Ramos (DK $3,700) a little further down the pricelist and the punt play is probably Sal Perez (DK $2,800). But with plenty ofvalue on this slate I’ll leaning toward spending for the most pop at catcher.
I love the Athletics’ lefty bats in this matchup, as Antonio Senzatelais a bit of a dumpster fire against LHBs – yielding a .394 wOBA and a walk rateover 11%. Olson is almost $1K cheaper than Pete Alonso ($DK $5,500) and has a decentcontact rate for a slugger. I’ll absolutely be rolling out shares of Alonso andMax Muncy (DK $4,000), and the latter comes at a big discount because the Astrosare starting lefty Framber Valdez – who, let’s be honest, may not last long inthis game.
Kike is available at 2B and any of the three outfield positions onDK, so there’s a great deal of flexibility in fitting him in your lineups.There’s always a chance he comes out of the game in the later innings, but whathe can do in just an at bat or two facing a southpaw is very intriguing. Thepricing is very soft on some of these Dodgers bats, and I’ll be taking advantage.I do have some love for dirt-cheap 2B/OF Whit Merrifield (DK $3,800), but I’llbe happy to use him in an OF spot along with the Royals OF I’ll get to in aminute, and 2B/3B David Fletcher (DK $3,200) is another interesting optionleading off for the Angels, especially with that bevy of sluggers following him(Trout, Rendon, Upton, Ohtani, Pujols).
The price on Bogaerts is way too low, so I’m not going to overthinkthis one and just use him as my main SS on DK. You can make a case for AmedRosario (DK $5,100) in GPPs that feature Mets stacks, but I’ll be putting mostof my eggs in Xander’s basket tonight. And aside from Adalberto Mondesi (DK $3,400),I’m just not seeing much upside in the value guys.
I almost included Soler in yesterday’s column but decided to give Yelich a shot, and he respond by going yard – even if it was his only hit of the game. The multi-hit games are coming, and tonight could be the first of many. Merrifield-Soler-Mondesi-Perez-Ryan O’Hearn-Maikel Franco is a fine 1-6 stack against Detroit SP Rony Garcia, and I’d be happy to run it back with some Tigers bats in a full game stack. Spend-up one-offs include Trout (DK $6,000) and the much more moderately-priced Joey Gallo ($4,100), and Mookie Betts is in a fine spot for Dodgers stacks.
NOTE: Pitching worked out great last night as I got plenty of value from Glasnow and Wacha, but tonight is a much tougher proposition. I’m currently interested in value option Patrick Sandoval ($6,600) and pairing him with a mix of higher-priced options like Kyle Gibson and possibly even Walker Buehler – pitch count and tough matchup notwithstanding.
I’m looking at the offense for the Royals-Tigers game, which s of post time didn’t have a line yet. I’ll take the 1-2 hitters for the Royals who were discussed in the column and Tigers leadoff hitter Niko Goodrum. 3x is risky, but these guys can easily rack up 17.5 fantasy points so you can get a big triple-up reward when you take down your Monkey Knife Fight bet.
Good luck!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Photo of Jorge Soler courtesy of Minda Haas Kuhlmann.
Either the Rays or Athletics will be planning out fall/winter vacations by the end of Wednesday’s AL Wild Card Game.
The 10/2 MLB DFS Showdown will help you get your share of the long green.
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Here’s how I’d play my lineup. In fact, it’s the same lineup I’ll post at FanDuel.
10/2 FanDuel Showdown Lineup
MVP (2X)
Matt Olson, 1B, OAK, $8,500 Salary
Olson has a track record against Rays starter Charlie Morton ($16,800). The slugger first sacker has four hits in 12 career at-bats versus Morton, including a homer along with drawing a pair of walks. Olson also has the momentum of a September that saw him produce a .938 OPS with nine homers, 23 RBI and 18 runs scored. I’m all-in on a hitter with a 50.3% hard contact rate.
All-Star (1.5X)
Austin Meadows, OF, TB, $9,500 Salary
More effective on the road, Meadows had a .966 OPS with 20 of his 33 homers coming outside Tampa Bay. Meadows also has a 42.9% fly ball rate that should play well with the wind projected toward right field. That also bodes well considering Meadows sports a 45.1% pull rate. He can easily be an MVP, yet Olson and his track record with Morton gives Olson the edge.
Utility
Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK, $7,000 Salary
Play the home field advantage with Laureano, who has a .904 OPS in Oakland. I also like that Laureano will provide the threat of a stolen base (13). He’s come a long, long way from the slow start in March/April along with putting together a 25.1% line drive rate on top of a 40% hard contact rate.
Laureano’s 25.6% strikeout rate is an obvious concern when facing a whiff machine like Morton, but in a Showdown scenario, all I’m counting on is one swing to change the complexion of the game.
Utility
Avisail Garcia, OF, TB, $6,000 Salary
Like Laureano, I’ll gamble on the power-speed combo of Garcia, who added 10 steals to go along with 20 homers. Garcia has hit the A’s well this season, coming into tonight with a .368 batting average and .425 OBP. The .455 slugging percentage is a mild disappointment, yet the ability to get on base consistently helps the cause for DFSers.
Garcia is a not a consistent fly ball hitter (31.6%), yet did boost his line drive rate from 17.4% in 2018 to 22.3% this season.
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Utility
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Rays, $4,000 Salary
Call this a calculated risk. There’s little to suggest Aguilar to be highly-used, but scenarios like this call for the unexpected bat to rise up and deliver. This is where Aguilar, who has a .714 OPS and managed just five hits in September (although two were homers).
Aguilar isn’t going to be cheated when he makes contact, bringing a 41.7% hard contact rate and a 41.7% medium contact rate.
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The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!
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With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.
We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.
The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.
Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.
New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.
Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.
My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.
With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.
Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.
Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.
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Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.
I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.
While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.
C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)
2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)
3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)
OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),
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