In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!
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Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.
Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.
Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman
Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) – MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.
Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.
Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.
J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.
Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.
Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.
Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)
C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) – There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.
Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.
Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.
Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.
Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.
More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)
Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.
Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.
Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.
Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman
We’ve got another no-cut event to cover in our PGA DFS contests for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and our picks will help you green up those screens!
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Collin Morikawa (DK $11,000) – I’ll chalk up last week’s podium no-show to a bad putting week and the leveled playing field of a gettable Olympic course. This week, he’s on faster putting surfaces that seem to help better ball strikers and guys who flourish at majors, and he’ll rely on his game’s all-around brilliance over four days to contend for a WGC title. In this week’s must-see breakdown, Joel talks a little bit about how to pick your top-tier PGA DFS guys and how this is a week where the cream will rise to the top – favoring players like Morikawa.
Brooks Koepka (DK $10,600) – Koepka is one of a few golfers who play well at TPC Southwind and could walk away with the trophy this week, so we’ll have to mix in some shares of him in GPPs. I’m never too keen on using him in cash games, but this could be the week that I deploy him there and in a small- and large-field single-entry GPP contests banking on a top 5 finish – something he’s done a lot here. He’s already notched a win (2019), a T2 (2020) and a T2 in 2016 before TPC Southwind was a WGC event – and his form is solid with T4-T5-T6 in his last three tournaments.
Dustin Johnson (DK $10,200) – With lots of ownership going to Koepka, DJ makes for a cheaper pivot in GPPs and certainly has the right skill set to get it done at TPC Southwind. My usual worries about putting are alleviated in the switch to the faster Bermuda greens, since it’s a little easier for him to compete with the better, more aggressive putters when he doesn’t have to worry about slamming in ten-footers.
Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, he’s a course horse and a fan of these putting surfaces, which – let’s be honest – has been the most glaring issue with JT’s game over the past few tournaments. Both he and JT are guys who like to get the line right and give it a good roll, and that’s rewarded here – as opposed to the bumps and bounces of Bentgrass and “pop-it-in” Poa. He’s another bargain PGA DFS GPP pivot given his upside, though there’s moderate risk if he doesn’t see many putts go in in the first two days.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,600) – Louis is on quite the heater, notching four second-place finishes in his last eight starts worldwide, including a solo second at the U.S. Open and T2 at the PGA Championship. He also finished T3 at the Open Championship and he likes this course – with T20-T6 in his two trips to Memphis. He’s a solid putter on any surface and this may be the best he’s hit the ball in his celebrated career.
Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (cash)
Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger has taken advantage of this venue in his four appearances at TPC Southwind, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic twice and sharing runner-up honors in the WGC last year. He’s among the better PGA DFS values in the field when we consider form, course history and his superiority in target golf. Berger is a solid play in all formats and has winning upside despite the insanely strong field.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $8,800) – I’ll be rooting hard for Matty Fitz to get his first PGA Tour victory this week, and this golf course is a good place for that to happen. The English standout seems to thrive at this venue and on courses with similarly small Bermuda greens. With four guaranteed days for him to get hot and make some birdies, he should climb the leaderboard and be in contention come Sunday.
Webb Simpson (DK $8,500) – We have to like this price point for Simpson, who has struggled in 2021 but should benefit from a no-cut event on a Bermuda greens and a recent T19 at the Open Championship. He finished second here in 2019 and T12 in 2020, so it’s as good a place as any for him to get back in the swing of things.
Abraham Ancer (DK $8,300) – Ancer could be downright dangerous this week, as he finished T14 at the Olympics and has logged six top 10s among 15 official top 25s this season. He also plays well at WGC events, notching top 20s in his last six appearances in dating back to the 2019 WGC Match Play. I love getting him for all four rounds and seeing just how hot he can get with his pin-seeking approaches.
Corey Conners (DK $8,100) – Conners isn’t the best putter in the world and there’s always the risk of three-jacks on greens this fast – but he undoubtedly has the T2G chops to avoid the ubiquitous water trouble that threatens both tee balls and approach shot at TPC Southwind. I’d consider him a decent cog in balanced PGA DFS GPP builds but a longshot to win.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $8,000) – His ball-striking may still be along way from the days when he earned the “Fairway Jesus” sobriquet, but his T16 finish among some excellent competitors at the Olympics and fondness for the switch to Bermuda could mean good things for him in Memphis this week. I’m nowhere near “all-in” status with Tommy, but a low score on one of the first couple days could help propel him to a top 10 finish this week, so I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.
Will Zalatoris (DK $7,900) – Zalatoris is a relatively high-risk GPP wildcard this week, since there’s really no telling if his back is okay after the withdrawal at the Open Championship, and he hasn’t played this course before. Regardless, he’s a talented ball striker and he’s got four days (if his body holds up) to navigate the hazards and hard-to-hit greens at TPC Southwind. I’d steer clear in cash games and single-entry, but ownership should be low and I’m fine using him in 5-10% of GPPs.
Sungjae Im (DK $7,700) – I love Sungjae on Bermuda greens and I’m not deterred by the hectic schedule that had him competing for a medal in Tokyo just last week. He could be a super sneaky GPP play and possibly a solid staple for single-entry if you’re buying into his upside at this affordable price.
Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English
Brian Harman (DK $7,500) – Harman had been getting it done prior to his WD (undisclosed) at the 3M Open after tying for 19th at the Open Championship, earning top 20 finishes in four of his last five starts dating back to the Charles Schwab Challenge. Other than a missed cut at the PGA, his game has flourished in major championships and the tougher-field events in 2021.
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,300) – I like having Sergio on Bermuda for four days, since he’s got the ball-striking prowess to excel at TPC Southwind and avoid some of the water than could swallow up less experienced players. Since a T20 at Colonial, he’s notched four straight top 20s and finished T25 at the 3M Open, so he’s worth a look in all formats at this bargain price.
Billy Horschel (DK $7,100) –It’s been a spell since I’ve considered Horschel, probably because he has only played four tournaments since the start of June, and he wasn’t a PGA DFS factor in any of them (67th at the Memorial, a disappointing MC at U.S. Open, T54 at Scottish Open and T53 at Royal St. George’s). TPC Southwind, on the other hand, favors his game and has historically ben a get-right spot for the native Floridian, who favors Bermuda over the surfaces we’ve seen recently on tour. He’s a fine risk-reward GPP play this week.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Value like this is sometimes difficult to find in no-cut events, but Poulter offers plenty of upside considering all the factors of pricing and performance in the focus stat categories. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid the big numbers, he’ll be a solid value over four days in Memphis, where he finished in eighth place in 2019 but faltered (T69) in 2020. Whether you need to include a guy like Poulter depends a lot on your roster construction, but I have a feeling I might end up using him a bit.
Kevin Kisner (DK $6,800) – TPC Southwind, on a cursory glance, really seems like another good spot for Kisner to post a Top 20 or better finish. The venue features small Bermuda greens and plenty of doglegs, making it comparable to venues where he’s done some of his best work on the PGA Tour (including Copperhead and Harbour Town). He’s finished T25 and T27 the past two years, and any improvement on that should work for the builds that include “Lil’ Kis” and his positive putting pedigree this year.
Phil Mickelson (DK $6,600) – Getting Phil at $6,600 is just too good to pass up given his record at TPC Southwind and familiarity with the venue. Sure, he may flake out and start three-putting or miss a bunch of fairways and be playing catch-up after a couple days, but he’s good enough to post a low number early and let his talents carry him the rest of the way. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I’m not forcing him into my builds as he’s more of a “last piece” flier.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $6,600) – Like Phil, this lefty has the overall game to flourish at this venue, even if he lacks the course history/experience to be a no-brainer value play. Bobby Mac is a risk since he finished T59 in the 2020 WGC-FedEx (his first and only try), but a string of solid finishes in 2021 may have given him added confidence heading back to Memphis this year.
More value golfers to consider: Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose (GPP), Matthew Wolff (GPP), Cameron Champ (GPP)
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,500) – Let’s start by referring to what Sia said in his Initial Picks article, where he touted Palmer as “the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event” because of his form and the inherent risk you assume with the possibility of the dreaded “two days and done.” If he can post good scores in one or two rounds, that might be enough to return value in stars-and-scrubs builds.
Stewart Cink (DK $6,500) – It’s nice to see other WinDaily writers on the same punts as me, although that could mean elevated ownership, and some of our leverage could “Cink” if we invest a bit too much in good ol’ Stewie Kablooie this week. This is where I’ll stop having anything more than 15% ownership in my tournament entries and keep the remaining suggestions to one or two entries out of 20 in the big field GPPs.
Additional GPP punts: Kevin Na, Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Matt Jones, Jim Herman
This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.
Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.
Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.
Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.
Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.
Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer
Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.
Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.
Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.
Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.
Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.
More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)
Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.
Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.
Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).
Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim
The Win Daily team has content galore this week, including this edition of PGA DFS picks to help you dominate your contests at the Rocket Mortgage Classic!
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,400) – He’s the defending champion, largely on the performance of his putter, so we must consider Bryson this week, especially in cash games. And despite some poor course management choices and subsequent meltdowns, he’s still made 10 straight cut and should be in the conversation come Sunday.
Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Given the fact that he’s missed two cuts in his last five tourneys, we can’t say Simpson’s form is great, but he does have a couple Top 15s in there (T12 at the Masters and T9 at the RBC Heritage). Strangely enough, three of the last four appearances he’s made have been at majors. That tells me he likes playing here, and his T8 last year in Detroit piques my interest even more.
Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Willie Z used to make a lot of hay on courses like this on the Korn Ferry Tour, even if his PGA identity has been more of a “tough course” grinder. He’s not cheap this week, but he’s clearly among the top five in the talent category that’s heading to Detroit. I’m most worried about his putting, so I’ll limit my ownership to GPPs.
Jason Kokrak (DK $9,500) – Kokrak should be popular even at this elevated price, but his game should translate well to this course, where he finished T29 in 2019 before his career added the maiden victory and follow-up win at the 2021 Charles Schwab, played at Colonial. This venue comps well to that course, he’s number one on Sia’s model, and I’ll be overweight on the field regardless of ownership.
Also consider: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama
Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – He’s off the DFS radar, for the most part, and that’s when I like to give him a shot in GPPs. But the price is entirely too much for cash game builds and he may fare well as a sneaky Top 10 bet.
Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Again – I can’t trust Wolff in cash games and will steer clear in single-entry, but the leverage and upside in large field GPPs should warrant some exposure to this dynamic but risky play. Joel likes him in GPPs and that’s enough for me.
Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500) – Kisner finished third last year and his coming off a T5 at the Travelers, an event where he wasn’t much part of the DFS conversation in the leadup. Aside from that, he hasn’t been very successful in 2021, though the courses have played tough and he prefers venues like this where he can make some birdies.
Max Homa (DK $8,400) – Homa – who is a combined +28 in his last four missed cuts – is not getting the love he deserves this week because of the form, even if he’s been a popular topic in the WinDaily golf writers’ message thread. I know that Isaiah is intrigued by Homa this week and I’m on board too.
Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – I’m interested in seeing what Higgo can do at a birdie fest considering he shot 66-63-64-64 in his win at the Canary Islands Championship in May on the EURO tour. Higgo is long, he’s a good putter, and he’s a bargain at this price – so he really stood out to me in this range – just like he did for Sia in his Initial Picks.
Doc Redman (DK $7,900) – Redman has a T21 here in 2020 and notched a solo second in 2019, so he’s clearly a course horse. Normally considered a volatile performer and high-risk/big-reward type of play, Redman has made five straight cuts and could be trending up toward another Top 10.
Maverick McNealy (DK $7,700) – I love McNealy and his ability to make birdies in bunches, and his T8 last season in Detroit is encouraging for another Top 20 finish. He finished T4 at the last birdie-forward event (RBC Heritage), and when he goes low, he goes really low. A fine play in all formats and one of favorites for “low round” bets.
Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – I missed out on Straka and his T10 last week and will probably never recover from that – it’s like how I’ll feel if I fade Matthew Fitzpatrick the week of his first PGA Tour win. I’ll have some minimal shares just so I don’t have that feeling again.
Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim (GPP), Lucas Glover (GPP), Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, Lanto Griffin
Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin is solid T2G, and while I have a hard time seeing him post crazy low scores and reaching the -20 that might be necessary to win, he’s got the chops to finish in the Top 20.
Mark Hubbard (DK $7,300) – Don’t look now, but Hubbard has made five straight cuts and is playing really good golf, his T13 last week being his best finish since his T12 at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s still a little risky for cash games, but he’s fine for GPPs and could be a bargain single-entry if you’re willing to assume a little extra risk.
Brian Stuard (DK $7,000) – Stuard is a couple years removed form his T5 finish here in what was a very weak field, but he notched a T30 in 2020 in Detroit as well and is among the best bargains in this $7K range for his brilliant putting and ability to make birdies in bunches.
Nate Lashley (DK $6,900) – Lashley is a former Rocket Mortgage champion (he won in 2019) but the form is somewhat concerning. I’ll limit my exposure to low-cost, large-field GPPs. He’s easy to root for and should make the cut this week.
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – If Rodgers could get in the habit of putting together four rounds of his A game, he’d be one of the best golfers on tour, but his one-day brilliance is usually bracketed by a stinker or two. He’s in the conversation for first-day leader, but I’ll steer clear in most formats.
Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – Norlander has made three cuts in his last five tournaments, which for him is a hot streak. I’m banking on another solid finish this week and he makes sense for the last piece in some GPP lineups.
More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power, Pat Perez (GPP), Danny Willett, Tom Lewis, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Richy Werenski, Cameron Champ (GPP), Danny Lee (GPP)
Adam Schenk (DK $6,500) – I won’t be dabbling too much in the $6,500 and under range this week, but Schenk checks a few boxes and could spike a Top 35 finish if he manages to make the cut – which he’s done in seven of his last 10 events.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,200) – Ventura is a hard nut to crack, because the ball-striking falls well behind the putter and there’s usually something in the course history I like (T21 here in 2020). This course sets up much better for him, and if the putter does its thing he could finally notch a Top 25, which he hasn’t done in a normal PGA tour event sine his T6 at Sanderson Farms.
Additional GPP punts: Jimmy Walker, J.J. Spaun, Ted Potter, Austin Cook
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a monster payday at the Palmetto Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – While DJ has not played his best golf lately, he’s a South Carolina guy on a course down near the Cackalacka/Georgia border, he’s playing a new course with coastal/links characteristics that he seems to prefer, and he’s the most talented golfer in the field (with Brooks Koepka a close second). His SG:APP and SG:OTT numbers are still in the Top 30 on the tour and he’s No. 13 in SG: T2G. If DJ can keep the putter going on what should be a fast course, there’s no reason he can’t lap the field and run away with this tournament.
Brooks Koepka (DK $11,100) – Koepka seems to be recovered from most of his knee woes and is having a great time playfully feuding with Bryson DeChambeau, but I still can’t trust him at this price in cash games. He’s totally fine for GPPs, but without too many quality value options below the $7K mark (don’t worry – we’ve got a couple in there for you), he might not make as many rosters as you’d anticipate with such a dramatic difference in ability between the top two and the rest of the field. I’d steer clear of overexposure with him, but he’ll be mixed into a few of my GPP lineups for sure.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $10,400) – It’s going to be tough to find anybody we feel safe rostering in the $9K to $10K range, but Fitzpatrick makes for a fine GPP play on a course where he should feel at home despite the lack of history. He likes these putting surfaces and these speeds, and he’s one of several English golfers who should be in contention this week. His SG: OTT and putting numbers are excellent, and like Joel and Sia, I feel like there’s progression coming in his SG: APP metrics.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,500) – Fleetwood is a risky play this week, and he’s not a guy I’d normally consider given his current mediocre form. His best 2021 result so far is a T5 at the WGC Match Play event, with his best stroke play finish a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With no PGA tour victories to his credit in his young career, he shouldn’t be too popular. That said, he’s going to win on the PGA Tour eventually (just like Fitzpatrick will), and a weak field event on a links-style course like this could be the breakthrough.
Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English (GPP)
Ian Poulter (DK $9,200) – Sharps are loving Poulter’s recent form and while he’s proven to be maddeningly inconsistent from week-to-week in the past, there’s not a lot of competition in this range. The fourth English golfer I’ve mentioned (and that doesn’t even count the guy actually named English), he’s the best in that group with the putter (7th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting) and riding a hot streak heading into an unknown venue – a good sign when we don’t have a lot of data to work from.
Patton Kizzire (DK $9,100) – I don’t mind paying a premium for Kizzire on a course where he should play really well. I love playing the big galoot on courses with wider fairways where he doesn’t have as much trouble keeping it in the short stuff, and he’s made significant improvements in his approach game to match his elite putting metrics. I’ll be overweight on Kizzire in all formats and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.
Lucas Glover (DK $8,600) – He’ll likely be chalky, as the former Clemson Tiger is actually one of Congaree’s “Professional Ambassadors” – and someone with intimate knowledge of the course and its pitfalls. This course is also seemingly tailor-made to fit his strengths. The price is okay and for that reason, I’ll likely be ahead of the field in GPPs and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.
Harold Varner (DK $8,500) – Once again, I’m with Sia in hating when Varner gets chalky, because that’s precisely when he seems to disappoint. Still, he’s from SC and shouldn’t have too many problems scoring well at Congaree. His T2 at the RBC Heritage points to an ability to notch a top 5 when his game comes together, and the price seems fair considering his upside in a field of this lesser quality.
Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,400) –He’s not the best ball-striker (or even a good one), but Sneds is a putting demon and the pressure could be off a bit with his driver since it’ll be easier for him to hit fairways. The tour veteran has made every cut since the Players Championship (with three Top 20s), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him threatening the lead this weekend. He’s always a bit risky, but that risk is mitigated a bit at Congaree.
Martin Laird (DK $7,800) – Laird isn’t a super exciting play, but he grades out well for this golf course (at least for what we think we know about this golf course) and he’s made seven of his last eight cuts. The wily Scot was T23 at the PGA Championship, and has a solid all-around game T2G, but does struggle with the putter. That might not be as much of a problem on these fast surfaces and green complexes. He’s worth a look in GPPs.
Vincent Whaley (DK $7,700) – Whaley makes sense in all PGA DFS formats, and he’s one of the safer plays once we get under $8K. Since a missed cut at the Waste Management Open, Whaley has put together a pretty impressive string of made cuts (T50-T15-T36-T28-T34-T29-T26-T26-T20). While he didn’t appear at either of 2021’s major championships, he’s not tanking anybody’s PGA DFS lineups at this price point if he continues to grind out Sunday paychecks for himself.
Ben Martin (DK $7,600) – Martin has sloughed off the nagging back problems that stymied his career in 2017-18, when he was forced to take a leave of absence from the PGA Tour, and he’s another Clemson alum from South Carolina who’s seen a resurgence in 2021. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage but has posted four top 35 finishes (including a T11 at the Wells Fargo and a T9 at the Corales Puntacana) among his last five tour starts.
Also consider: Garrick Higgo, Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner, Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Scott Stallings (Cash) Luke List (GPP), Pat Perez (GPP), Sepp Straka, Rory Sabbatini
Bo Hoag (DK $7,500) – Hoag missed six straight cuts in March and April before squeezing into the weekend at the birdie-forward AT&T Byron Nelson and finishing T13 at the Memorial last week. Still – that’s a good trend going into a golf course that plays to his strengths and where there are no sure things. That uncertainty should keep the masses off him at this elevated price, and he’s a perfectly sound risk-reward upside play at the Palmetto Championship.
Bronson Burgoon (DK $7,200) – I love deploying Burgoon on venues that could turn into birdie fests, and he’s a bigger hitter who may have been waiting to play this course, since his last start was a T13 at the Byron Nelson. He’s got plenty of PGA DFS bust potential as well, but the looming latent boom is what I’m focusing on, as he’ll come in at low ownership and be a fine value play in GPPs.
Joseph Bramlett (DK $7,100) – Bramlett collected the second top 10 of his PGA Tour career at the Byron Nelson, racking up 20 total birdies and two eagles. He’s probably not safe for cash games or single-entry, but I love the value in large-field GPPs and I’ll be coming in around 20% ownership in my 20-max entries.
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,900) – Hammerin’ Hank checks a lot of the SG:APP boxes this week and fared well (T13) at the Byron Nelson, his most PGA Tour recent appearance. His last two starts before that yielded a T13 (Valspar) and a T51 (Wells Fargo), but he’s a volatile golfer who might be hard to trust in single-entry. Sia likes the sneakiness and I don’t disagree; I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field and 20-max GPPs, though.
John Pak (DK $6,900) – The 22-year-old Pak is playing in his first event as a pro, and it’s a debut where the field doesn’t have any advantage in terms of course history. That puts him squarely on my radar as a solid unknown bargain GPP play and a guy I’ll have lots of exposure to. He’s got plenty of game and the college accolades that go along with it, and we’ve seen players of his pedigree make the switch to professional golf without much of a learning curve. Giddyup.
Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – Hadley is an excellent putter who takes advantage of scoring opportunities – which really interests me at this price point. He’s had his struggles in 2021 but seems like a poor man’s Snedeker who can get hot with the flastick and get in the mix. At such a huge discount on a venue where he could easily find his game and make a run on the weekend, I’m buying.
More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power (GPP), Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski, Jason Dufner, Scott Piercy, Tom Lewis, Henrik Norlander, Roger Sloan, Cole Hammer, Chez Reavie, Will Gordon
Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,500) – The $6,500 and under range at a weak-field event is usually bad, but this group doesn’t have a whole lot of upside. Baddeley, however, with his solid putter and grinder mindset, seems like a viable punt play. Nobody down here is worth more than 5-10% exposure in GPPs, but I’m hitching my wagon to the Aussie as one of the guys I’ll use at that limited rate.
Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – Once again, I’ll include Ventura considering just how good he is with the putter, a factor that could weigh more heavily this week on a course that not too many of these guys have played. I’ll stay south of 10% in my GPP exposure, but I do like his upside this week.
Additional GPP punts: Hudson Swafford, Brian Gay, Chris Baker, Bo Van Pelt, William McGirt
We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!
Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!
Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.
Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau
Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.
Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.
Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.
Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.
Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.
Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch
Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.
Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.
Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.
Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.
Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.
Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.
Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.
More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)
Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.
Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.
Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.
Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.
Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.
Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.
Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)
Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.
Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.
Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.
Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.
Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.
Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.
Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.
Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.
Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.
Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)
Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.
Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.
Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.
Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.
Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.
Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.
Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.
More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)
Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.
Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.
Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.
Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.
Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee
In this PGA DFS picks column, we’re looking for all the right team at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and helping you navigate this team event!
Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,700) – I doubt these golfers will find much trouble off the tee and they look like the best combo of ball-striking and ability to capitalize on opportunities. Cantlay hasn’t played well recently, but in a team event, it’s easy to throw that out and look at the fact that both of these players are in the OWGR Top 10, and have the most combined talent in the field.
John Rahm/Ryan Palmer (DK $11,700) – They mastered this format last year, and Ryan Palmer lines up as a good proximity golfer from outside 200 yards (he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour). Combine their past success with Rahm’s overall talent and ability and you could have another winning combo in New Orleans. They’re a solid play in all formats.
Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (DK $11,100) – These two were President’s Cup teammates and they both play the same ball – which is a bonus when they get to alternate stroke team play. Smith has shown an affinity for Pete Dye course and ranks fifth in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana, where he was a part of the winning team in 2017 alongside Jonas Blixt. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities every day for this team, which has a shot at winning.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa/Matthew Wolff (GPP)
Scottie Scheffler/Bubba Watson (DK $10,900) – I have no doubts about the team chemistry with these two birdie-makers, and while Watson has struggled in recent weeks, he’s a team player who seems to be more at ease when he’s outside his head. Scheffler’s ability to provide ample scoring opportunities will be a welcome sight for Bubba.
Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett (DK $10,300) – The English pair complement each other’s games quite well, with Hatton’s ball-striking and Willett’s putting possibly providing a winning combination of skill sets. I may not be overweight on the field if they get popular, but I’ll have shares.
Chris Kirk/Brendan Todd (DK $10,100) – A team that might end up making my single entry GPP lineups, Kirk/Todd (we can call them the UGA connection as former Georgia Bulldogs) should make the cut and give us some possible upside if they can get hot with the putters. They’ll be in play on these holes and we know Todd likes the small Bermuda greens and these types of “short-game forward” setups.
Max Homa/Talor Gooch (DK $9,900) – Both players can make birdies in bunches and that’s a good thing in team play. It’ll be easier to avoid big numbers that plague these golfers occasionally, and the sub-$10K tag is alluring in such a tight pricing format. The team fares well in combined models and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.
Victor Hovland/Kristoffer Ventura (DK $9,700) – They played together at Oklahoma State and a quick review of the metrics indicates another complementary pairing here. Hovland ranks at or near the top of the field in SG:OTT, Opps Gained and BoB%, while Ventura is one of the better putters on tour, ranking well overall and on Bermuda. This could be a sneaky team.
Also consider: Tony Finau/Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel/Sam Burns
Brendan Steele/Keegan Bradley (DK $9,300) – Steele is the better putter and longer driver, and Bradley the better ball-striker, and Steele had a Top 10 at this event in 2018. It’s not an exciting team, but one that might be lingering come Sunday and make a run at a Top 5.
Thomas Pieters/Tom Lewis (DK $9,200) –Another EURO connection that combines experience and form (Pieters) with birdie-making and motivation (Lewis). Lewis wants his PGA Tour card and Pieters is motivated in his own right – looking for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. Sia had them in his initial picks and I’m firmly aboard this pairing as well.
Lucas Glover/Chez Reavie (DK $8,800) – I’m most worried about this group’s putting statistics, which lag far behind the ball-striking metrics, but that tends to get mitigated a bit in team events, when two heads are usually better than one of reading putts and bouncing back from the bad holes.
Jason Kokrak/Pat Perez (DK $8,300) – Both of these golfers are PGA Tour “nice guys” who have had mixed results in 2020-21, with Perez hitting a bit of a plateau and Kokrak breaking through with his first PGA Tour win in October. If DK gave out points for good vibes, they’d be priced even higher, but I’m loving the discount in the value range.
Cameron Tringale/Roberto Castro (DK $8,000) – Tringale, who’s had a solid 2020-21 season, is third on my model and while Roberto Castro struggles with consistent play, he’s No. 18 in the field for SG:APP at this golf course. I’m liking the price and upside, but it’s risky in single-entry GPP.
More value golfers to consider: Louis Oosthuizen/Charl Schwartzel, Erik van Rooyen/Wyndham Clark, Kevin Kisner/Scott Brown, Doug Ghim/Justin Suh
Matthew NeSmith/Chase Seiffert (DK $7,500) – This team will be very chalky, and they seem to be mispriced considering the talent level. They’re on a bit of a pricing island and seem to be one of the only exciting options between $7-8K.
Richy Werenski/Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – I’m glad that Joel brought these two (and Michael Thompson/Will Gordon) up in the Breakdown. Both teams caught my eye looking for cheap options that have upside, and I like the ability of Werenski/Uihlein to make a bunch of birdies in best ball and outperform their affordable salary.
Scott Piercy/Ashkay Bhatia (DK $6,900) – It’s kind of an off-the-wall play considering the differing general makeup of these two golfers, but they could surprise some folks in the first couple of days, when they seem to play their best golf. The opportunities should be there, and Piercy won with Horschel in 2018, so they’re worth a look in GPPs.
Bo Hoag/Wes Roach (DK $6,300) – It’s a dart throw for sure,because neither of these players is known for their consistency, but Hoag projects well for this golf course on the mixed model (No. 36 overall) and Roach ranks No. 22 in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana.
Additional GPP punts: Michael Thompson/Will Gordon (GPP), Sepp Straka/Josh Teator, Tom Hoge/Beau Hossler (GPP), Roger Sloan/Aaron Baddeley, James Hahn/Martin Trainer
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links and helping you find some winning teams!
Dustin Johnson (DK $11,600) – DJ is a South Carolina-born golfer who went to college in Myrtle Beach (Coastal Carolina), but this isn’t his type of golf course. Still – even though he’s fared poorly here in the past and doesn’t look too appealing on my model (No. 16), he can’t be completely ignored. The missed cut at the Masters and his relatively poor course history should keep him from higher ownership, so I might take a shot in some GPPs.
Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Simpson is the defending champion at Harbour Town and the chalkiest golfer on the board this week, but I don’t think I can endorse a full fade because he’s just so good on the greens – and his course history is quite impressive (no worse than T16 in his last four appearances here). He was T12 at the Masters last week and is a solid bet for a top 10 at the RBC – he just might not be necessary to roster in GPPs if he doesn’t crack the Top 5.
Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – His approach play is second-to-none on tour, he managed to keep it together for a T18 at Augusta last week, and he most recently won in February at the WGC-Workday. Morikawa is projected to be the third-highest owned golfer this week and while there is some merit to a fade considering his T64 finish here during a stretch of poor play in 2020, he’s No. 7 overall on my model and a tough player to get away from in PGS DFS when you consider the metric data.
Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger is No. 2 overall on my model and his ownership should come in well under Simpson’s – making him a fine single-entry and large-field GPP alterative. He’s only played here twice, but finished T33 in 2019 and T3 in 2020 – so it’s clear he likes the venue and the course layout. Berger doesn’t handle al the Pete Dye courses as well as he does this one, but I’m seriously considering him to be the “spend up” golfer in my core of single-entry builds.
Also consider: Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Cameron Smith (GPP), Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton (Cash)
Paul Casey (DK $9,200) – His last performance of note at the RBC Heritage was way back in 2014, when he finished T18, and since then he’s had a couple of missed cuts (2016 & 2018). But my mixed model (fourth overall) and the course layout are pointing in his direction this week, especially considering his SG:APP numbers in recent play. Course history hounds might stay away, but there’s a chance he garners ownership because of name recognition and recency bias.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,100) – The guy calls this his “favorite place in the world” and he really wants this to be the event where he gets his first win – if not at a major. I really like Fitzpatrick’s chances at bouncing back from his T34 at the Masters with another top 10 finish this week, as he’s shown improvement at this venue over the past few years and has two Top 15s in his last three tries here. He’s a great putter and despite some occasionally shaky approach play from 175-200, ranks 17th in my model, just behind DJ. I won’t be all-in on ownership, but I’ll be slightly ahead of the field, probably around 20-25%.
Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900) – Ancer ranks No. 6 overall on my model this week and finished solo second here in 2020, just one stroke behind Simpson. Both will be chalky, but he comes at a huge discount from the defending champion and offers almost as much upside with his solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches. If there’s an area where he can’t match Webb, it’s on the greens.
Shane Lowry (DK $8,500) – The Irishman is Stick’s pick to win the event and I couldn’t have been more elated when he announced that during the breakdown video – especially after he lauded Hideki Matsuyama last week before the Japanese sensation won the Masters. Lowry is No. 21 overall on my model, has been striking the ball very well lately, and has a T3 here in 2019. His ownership isn’t expected to surpass 10%, and there’s plenty of upside here compared to most of the other players in the mid range.
Harris English (DK $8,400) – English had a rough patch of two MCs at the Farmers and Waste Management, and a final round 80 at the WGC-Workday put him near the caboose of the no-cut event in solo 66th place. But before that he had some solid finishes, and since the WGC event he’s finished T26 (API at Bay Hill) and T21 (Masters). This is a guy you want to jump on as he starts rounding into form.
Si Woo Kim (DK $7,900) – I loved him last week at the Masters and he rewarded me with a T12 – a solid finish for his price and ownership level. My concern this week is that he might get a little too popular on the heels of that performance, as he’s still priced under $8K and his name is fresh in the minds of the leaderboard watchers. But if we’re choosing between him and Charley Hoffman (also just under $8K and projected for a similar ownership percentage), I’ll take Si Woo all day.
Russell Henley (DK $7,900) – The breakdown boys danced around the topic of Henley, but I’ll take my stand regardless of his spotty course history (his last two tries here are MCs), largely because he fares extremely well in my mixed model (third overall). Another knock on Henley from a DFS perspective is an inflated ownership projection that currently puts him as the ninth most popular play in the field.
Also consider: Corey Conners (Cash), Tommy Fleetwood (GPP), Brian Harman, Kevin Na (GPP), Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Brandon Grace, Ian Poulter
Chris Kirk (DK $7,500) – We have a general consensus among the WinDaily writers that Kirk looks like a fine play for most formats this week in DFS, though his ownership seems to be creeping up as folks ogle his string of made cuts since the Waste Management and his three Top 10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He’s okay for single-entry and cash games and I’ll have shares right around 10-15% in my GPP builds.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – Munoz is a solid shotmaker and he’s coming off a somewhat disappointing week at Augusta, where he placed T40 after a T9 finish at the Valero Open. I’d probably steer clear in cash games, but he’s fine for large-field GPPs and should stay below the 5% ownership threshold. I’ll be giving him a look, even if I prefer the discount offered by the next couple of guys on this list.
Kevin Streelman (DK $7,300) – If course history matters here (and it does), then we have to consider Streelman, who has a couple of top ten finishes in his last three appearances on Hilton Head Island. He’s a great value for all formats and Sia even staked his claim that Streelman will be the first round leader at long odds (66-1). The tour veteran is 20th overall in my model and he’ll be a staple of my GPP lineups.
Michael Thompson (DK $7,200) – Thompson isn’t nearly as safe as Streelman in this range, but he’s tenth overall in my model and does offer upside – despite a relatively high projected ownership for a guy with his brand of spotty play. His popularity can be explained by three straight made cuts (including a T34 at the Masters last week) as well as a sparkling course history that includes top ten finishes in his last two appearances.
J.T. Poston (DK $7,100) – He’s firmly in play as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play, and both Joel and Nick like him this week too – probably because he’s finished T8 and T6 in his last two runs here. I never like going too hard on Poston, but he’s definitely in play this qweek.
Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – He’s got the “site of his marriage proposal” narrative going this week, and he’s No. 11 overall in my model. He’s a great play in all formats and on my short list for single-entry GPP consideration. He may not have the upside of Poston or Thompson, but a breakthrough is still very possible.
Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – The breakdown touched on how NeSmith might be the better play in cash games, but Ghim could be a fine PGA DFS play in this range for large-field GPPs. The youngster is a first-timer at the RBC Heritage, but he’s made 12 of his last 16 cuts and hits awesome approach shots.
More value golfers to consider: Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Davis (GPP), Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Harold Varner III, Ryan Moore (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Russell Knox (GPP), Kyle Stanley (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chez Reavie, Jim Furyk
Patton Kizzire (DK $6,500) – I had a very productive PGA DFS run using Kizzire in GPPs in the 2020-21 transition in December-January, and he’s been okay if nor great since, with a T9 at the Valero ranking as his best finish since his T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s a longer hitter sprays it around a bit off the tee and doesn’t typically light the world on fire on shorter courses, but Kizzire is a verified putting demon who can get hot with the flat stick and make a boatload of birdies.
Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – I usually finish up my article as I’m listening to the breakdown, and I’m very glad that Sia mentioned him as a possibly mispriced golfer in the value/punt range. Hoge is a solid T2G golfer who hits good approaches 175-200 (No. 11 in the field), and he’s a decent putter with the ability to finish in the Top 10. I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field GPPs.
Scott Piercy (DK $6,300) – Piercy gets inclusion here based on his T3 finish here in 2019 and T16 in 2018, but his form in 2021 has not been great. Perhaps something clicks this week at the site of a venue where he’s had success and he can revisit some of the Top 20 form he flashed in October-November of 2020. He’s a large-field GPP play (maybe one or two lineups out of 20) with some Top 20 upside this week, but don’t go overboard.
Additional GPP punts: Tom Lewis, Jason Dufner, Chesson Hadley, Danny Lee, Bo Hoag, Tyler Duncan
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