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RBC Heritage: Initial Picks

There’s no off-season in golf, which means there are tournaments to be played immediately after the Super Bowl of golf.  This week we are at the RBC Heritage with a very talented field, especially when we consider that this is the week immediately after The Masters.  This week I am looking for accurate ball strikers in every phase.  Being long OTT isn’t a huge factor this week so I’ll weight APP over OTT and I’ll give a little bump upward to ARG as these greens are the 2nd smallest on the PGA Tour.  Tune into the PGA Livestream tonight for more on all the golfers in the field. And check out everything we have on the website as this week proceeds. Now, let’s get to the picks at the RBC Heritage.

Webb Simpson (10700) – Defending champ and RBC Heritage tournament sponsor has a great track record here and is a great course fit.  Adding to that his recent form is picking up and he gains strokes in all SG metrics.  Webb should feel at home here and a tournament takedown is in the cards.

Daniel Berger (10000) – Daniel Berger was a surprise miss cut along with DJ and Cantlay, but I think all three are playable this week.  As for how each of them played last week, Berger offers the least to be concerned with as he lost a lot of strokes with the putter.  Berger has been great on APP and is normally great with the putter so fire him up.

Paul Casey (9200) – Casey is a reasonable price this week and is in the Top 10 on Pete Dye courses dating back to January 2020 (19 measured rounds).  Add to that his game has been in great form, mostly due to ball striking and I think he’s a solid play at this price.

Abraham Ancer (8900) – Has been great T2G on Pete Dye courses and off Pete Dye courses.  Put simply, Ancer is a great ball striker and a good course fit which was evidenced by his 2nd place finish last year.  This is Ancer’s 4th tournament in a row, which includes Match Play, so there is a small concern with fatigue, but I’ll worry more about that if he plays next week.

Brian Harman (8700) – Hard to argue against rostering Harman as he has great course history and is playing the best golf of his career as of late.  He’s been gaining strokes OTT and APP at a great rate, particularly in the last 5 tournaments. 

Chris Kirk (7500) – If you look at Kirk over the last 36 rounds, he has been great in all SG metrics, and more specifically, falls within the top 30 in this field OTT, APP and ARG.  Not a big hitter and that shouldn’t hurt him this week. 

Kevin Streelman (7300) – This is the type of guy you may not take at most courses, but should be a good fit here.  He has been good on Pete Dye tracks and has very good course history here (outside of an MC in 2020).  Streelman, a short hitter, should be able to find the right parts of the fairway to set up his APP on a consistent basis.

Michael Thompson (7200) – Has played very well at the RBC Heritage, as evidenced by two Top 10’s in his last two outings, he certainly has the game to succeed here.  Further, a 34th last week at The Masters is nothing to ignore.

Lucas Glover (7100) – A very sneaky golfer who has been good on Pete Dye courses and who has been making almost every cut dating back to late last year.  Add to that he’s offered upside with a recent 4th place finish at Valero and a 5th place finish back in December at Mayakoba.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – A relatively short but accurate hitter with a fantastic APP game seems like a nice recipe for DFS and that’s what we have here with NeSmith.  Add to that he proposed to his wife on the 18th green and we have the metrics and the narrative to be high on NeSmith.

Doug Ghim (6900) – the average play as of late has mostly been a result of his terrible ARG and PUTT but the ball striking remains very good.  Being bad ARG may really hurt with the super small greens (2nd smallest on the PGA Tour) but I’m ok with having Ghim in a few lineups and hoping the short game bounces back.  I should note that Ghim does not have any course experience, so tread carefully on this upside play. I wouldn’t play Ghim in cash.

Tom Hoge (6400) – Maybe not the guy to lean on in a cash game or single entry tournament, but has the APP game to make some noise at RBC and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him finish inside the Top 25.  However, with Top 25 equity comes a similar amount of MC equity, but that’s what you pay for when you dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

Don’t forget to tune into the PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST on Tuesday and don’t forget to subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store. 

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