The Palmetto Championship: Initial Picks

197

This week we have an awkwardly placed PGA Tour tournament on the opposite coast of next week’s U.S. Open major.  This leaves us with a Palmetto Championship that is not rich in talent, but make no mistake about it, the DFS payouts remain the same.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP with OTT coming in a little more important than normal (but not quite as important as APP).  I’ll also be keying in on second shot proximities of 175 and above among the rest of the APP proximities.  Finally, PUTT takes on a bit more importance as the greens will be fast and tricky.  Check us out tonight on the PGA Livestream for discussion of the picks below and much more.

Brooks Koepka (11100) – We will talk, at length, about “The Brooks narrative” on the Palmetto Championship PGA Livestream/Podcast.  I will be ignoring that narrative for the most part in the hopes of exploiting the huge talent gap.  Brooks is number 1 in my model.

Matt Fitzpatrick (10400) – I wouldn’t say Fitz is a “contrarian” play but he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the 10k and above range.  His APP numbers have been off, but it wouldn’t shock me if that starts to come around this week and he does check all of the other boxes for this course. 

Alex Noren (8900) – Last week’s Win Daily Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned and less than 7k) is all the way up to 8900 this week and is now a staggering 36-9 overall.  Last week we were ahead of the curve and this week the industry has caught up as indicated by the price.  He’s expensive but the all-around game is there and he’s Number 4 in my model.

Lucas Glover (8600) – He will be popular as his recent play is great and he’s one of the few that has actually played this Palmetto Championship course at Congaree.  With that said, his APP numbers have tailed off a bit as of the last 12 rounds so Glover is not a “go all-in” play, but he’s worth a look in some lineups.

Scott Stallings (8000) – Don’t look now but Stallings has made 5 cuts in a row.  Does that mean he definitely makes the cut this week at The Palmetto Championship?  Nope.  It does mean that he’s on a trajectory that is different from most of the 8k and below golfers in this field.  The upside may be limited, but the all-around consistency he’s shown over the last 20 rounds in field stronger than this one is intriguing. 

Vincent Whaley (7700) – Maintains one of the longest cut streaks on the PGA Tour and the SG metrics are starting to bear that out.  Put simply, this guy has been automatic and is consistently finishing among the Top 25.  In this field I expect nothing different.  Whaley will be a popular play this week so beware of ownership.  I should note that I also like Luke List in this range, but I think he is better as a Showdown play than a full tournament play this week.

Ben Martin (7600) – Martin is really making strides this year and is a guy that I expect to emerge in a field like this one.  His overall SG metrics are good other than some issues ARG, but he happens to be decent in the sand which is a point of emphasis this week.   He’s a suprising 12^th in my model.

Roger Sloan (7000) – There are a lot of places to pivot this week, especially in the low end range, and I think Sloan is a good example of that.  He will be low owned and I think he has the upside to make the cut and score some points.  The short game can get Sloan in trouble, but I’m more willing to take that type of short game risk on a low priced guy like Sloan.  A GPP play only.

Hank Lebioda (6900) – He is quickly becoming one of my sneaky guys as I’ve peppered him into plenty of lineups this year.  Hammerin’ Hank has been good OTT and great on APP over the last 24 rounds and he’s been even better over the last 12 rounds.  Short game may trip him up but I think he makes up for it with the ball striking.  Already clicked a 150 to 1 outright ticket on him because, why not, right?

Robby Shelton (6700) – The 6k range is tough sledding but I think Robby has enough hot streaks to make a difference in your GPP lineups.  It’s a risk for sure, but if you need to dip down this low I think it’s got some upside.  More on 6k players on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-9. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your lineups.