Valspar Championship: Initial Picks

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The PGA Tour is back in Florida for one last time in 2021 and the field will be given a true test at the Valspar Championship. The Valspar is a tough course that will hurt you if you’re not in the fairway and will test all parts of your game. This week I’m focusing on APP, Driving Accuracy and ARG more than the the other metrics. As for APP, I’m taking a hard look at proximities between 175-200 and 200+ as a lot of shots will come from that range. Tune into our Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on all the golfers in this field.

Dustin Johnson (11200) – I don’t love the elite range this week, but I do like the fact that DJ will likely float under the radar at the Valspar Championship as he has been unimpressive over the last couple of months.  In spite of his recent struggles, over the last 36 rounds he still rates out 5^th in my model.

Corey Conners (9600) – Will fit nicely into your cash games, but likely to garner some high ownership so be mindful of that in your GPP’s.  Conners has been striking the ball better than everyone on tour and the short game is really coming around.  He rates out very high in my model as expected.

Tyrrell Hatton (9400) – Hatton is starting to come around but he has been plagued by inconsistency.  With that said, he’s inside the Top 10 in my model and is excellent in the notable proximity ranges (long iron play).  He is a big risk ARG and that could hurt him here, unless he’s striping those irons like he has been.  I’m willing to take the leap in GPP’s.

Russell Henley (9000) – I’m looking for guys who keep it in the fairway, are great on APP and are good on APP from long distances.  Henley checks all the boxes and rates out very high on my model.  A good price here and a solid cash and GPP play.

Justin Rose (8800) – I’m a bit surprised I’m writing Rose up as I haven’t rostered him in years.  It’s pretty clear the game is coming around and he’s gained strokes in a significant manner in three tournaments in a row.  There’s no reason to believe his game won’t translate well to the tough test at the Valspar Championship so I’m happy to roster him this week in GPP’s, but I’ll stay away in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (8400) – Certainly seems like a low price for Tringale considering that his ball striking has been great all year.  Part of the reason for this low price is his terrible history at this tournament (missed all three cuts the last three times he’s played here), but I’m willing to overlook that and hope the ball striking stays in good order.

Denny McCarthy (7500) – I think Denny is a solid GPP play this week as you may be catching him early while his ball striking game begins to rise.  The putter has always been his strong suit but the ball striking has made a bit of a comeback after a terrible stretch a few months back.  He finished 9^th here last year and recent form has been great.

Lucas Glover (7400) – He will need to find a hot putter to contend on Sunday, but outside of his struggles with the flat stick, he has been good.  His APP stats this year are good, but not great, but he looks like a player on the rise so I’ll ride the wave.

Rory Sabbatini (7100) – His stats don’t necessarily provide a beautiful picture, but he’s a smart and plotting player that should fit well on this course.  If history is any indication, you are getting value with Rory here as he’s finished 18^th and 5^th in his last two efforts at the Valspar Championship.

Kyle Stanley (6800) – Rates out 30^th in my model and checks most of the boxes, particularly on APP.  The big issue with Stanley will always be the putter.  To be clear, he’s a horrible putter, but he is actually on his best putting surface at the Valspar Championship (Bermuda) so if there were a time to take a chance on putter regression with Stanley, it’s here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

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