NFL Week 7 left us with more injuries and more questions. Could this be the week to stash Kyler Murray? Julia Papworth is here to break down ownership percentages and strategies for adding players to your team!
Make sure to keep it locked in every Tuesday for her gems and follow her on socials (@juliapapworth) for all her great content.
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.
The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.
Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.
The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.
Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited. Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.
Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.
Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.
DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.
DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with the second of two Monday night showdowns, and we’ll help you win big money in the final Week 6 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The Cowboys are favored in this game – largely because most of the skill position weapons that helped Dak Prescott put up gaudy numbers for the first few weeks will be available to Andy Dalton as well. But just as the Cowboys have struggled with injuries to their offensive line and the season-ending injury to Prescott, the Cards defense will also be without one of their best players in Chandler Jones (torn biceps).
The Cowboys have had a difficult time stopping anyone, so the task of containing Kyler Murray will be nearly impossible – making the second-year star the likely chalk as showdown captain. He and DeAndre Hopkins should have a field day against the porous Dallas secondary, though I expect production from all the Cards WRs in this one.
One of the keys for Dallas will be establishing the running game, which should mean 20+ carries for Ezekiel Elliott. The elite Cowboys RB is still a dangerous weapon as both a rusher and receiver, and the Cards have struggled against opposing RBs, who are averaging 106.8 rushing yards and 50.8 receiving yards per game in 2020. Standout defensive backs Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson may limit the effectiveness of the Dallas WR corps a bit, but the Cards’ front seven will have a tough time with Zeke.
This should be a relatively high-scoring game, and if I had to pick a Cowboys WR to spend up on, it would be CeeDee Lamb. The rookie WR already has 29-433-2 on 40 targets through five games, and he seems to get better every week.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Focus too much on the defenses. There’s certainly pick-six leverage in this matchup, but both units are banged up and there’s just no reason to believe either defense can be dominant.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Forget about Larry Fitzgerald. He saw seven targets last week and has yet to score a TD in 2020. This could be the week.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Another solid week of NFL DFS Cash Games for the Win Daily Team in Week Nine – the sample lineup from last week’s Checkdown crossed the pay-line yet again in DraftKings single entry cash games (180.61 DraftKings points)! Let’s get right back to it for the Week 10 Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.
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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates!
If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.
Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Ronald Jones
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Tyler Boyd
WR: Christian Kirk
TE: Mike Gesicki
FLEX: Christian McCaffrey
DST: Tennessee Titans
The DFS Fantasy Football Podcast features co-hosts Javi Prellezo (DFS Pro) and Brandon C. Williams discussing the Week 6 quarterback performances along with getting a look on the Week 7 plays to run with.
Week 7’s main slate will be thin on star talent. Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Tom Brady are among the quarterbacks playing prime-time games.
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Bills quarterback Josh Allen may not seem like an ideal Fantasy play, but he’s going against the Dolphins with a improved receiving corps that should offer more of Week 5 hero Duke Williams.
Daniel Jones can be an interesting play. The Giants QB gets to face the Cardinals, who are the worst defense in Fantasy when it comes to taking on quarterbacks. On the surface, he’s a major risk, but if TE Evan Engram returns, Jones has the makings of a punt play with value.
Other topics:
*Giants QB Daniel Jones is an interesting punt play.
*Gardner Minshew is an under the radar Cash Game option.
*Don’t buy too much into Russell Wilson this week, as the Ravens’ pass defense is much better than the numbers suggest.
*Do buy in to Lamar Jackson on the road against the Seahawks.
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Thank you for listening to the Fantasy Football Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
Perhaps the Week 7 DFS QB Picks will be more fruitful than last week, especially for those who got burned by Patrick Mahomes. There’s also us darned fools who underestimated Kirk Cousins (but didn’t call him a “weak link”), and for those who went with Jared Goff, well, we told ya.
As usual, the main slate’s the focus, so nuts to Chiefs-Broncos (Thursday night), Eagles-Cowboys (Sunday night) and Patriots-Jets (Monday night). The bye week also means no Browns, Buccaneers (Thank God), Panthers and Steelers.
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One could make a case of putting Ryan ahead of Watson, but Ryan isn’t remotely close to being the running threat that Watson is. Still, Ryan leads the league in both actual (2,011) and air (1,233) yards and will have a chance to light up a Rams defense that may not be up to the task of playing a track meet-style of contest that Atlanta will attempt to force.
The Rams are allowing 11.6 yards per catch, a total that could go higher now that Austin Hooper is a legit TE1 that can open the field for Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, two of the best run after the catch receivers in the game. Ryan is a still a value play, especially for someone attempting 43 passes per contest. You can’t be faulted for going with Ryan instead of Watson and using the savings elsewhere.
The Giants are 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, making this a solid play on the undervalued Murray. He’s progressed over the past two weeks, completing 68.1% of his passes while raising his rating from 78.8 to 109.1 in October. The O-line is showing considerable improvement, as Murray has been sacked just one in his last 69 attempts.
Murray is now in the Top 10 in air yards (eighth, 934) and if Christian Kirk returns soon, he’ll go higher. Momentum is on Murray’s side and he’s worth the play with his current value.
A bigger bargain than Murray, Minshew will be under the radar because of his tepid performance against a suspect Saints secondary last week. My only concern here is that with the Bengals ranked dead last in run defense, this could open the door for a monster afternoon for Leonard Fournette.
Minshew doesn’t do anything spectacular, yet he does have a 9-2 TD:INT margin and a lower bad throw completion rate (16.5%) than the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Joe Flacco. Even if he gets 25-28 attempts, he’ll be efficient enough to rack up points.
There’s plenty of work to make Allen Fantasy-viable on a consistent basis, but I like the fact he’s 27th in bad throw percentage at 14.1%. Allen is 12th in average depth of target at 8.7 and I’m enthused about the prospects of former CFL All-Star Duke Williams becoming more involved in the offense. The Dolphins are very QB-friendly, so take advantage of the one time Allen appears here.
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With each week, Jackson falls down the rankings in bad throw percentage, and that’s a good thing. The Seahawks allow 277.8 passing yards per contest, making Jackson’s 9.4 average depth per target more tempting to use. He finally had that game rushing against the Bengals, and while it’s too much (perhaps) to expect a similar effort, let’s be mindful of the fact that Seattle does allow 4.7 yards per carry.
Watson is on pace to account for 43 touchdowns, including 11 on the ground. That alone puts him in this category, but as good as he was in September, he’s downright lethal in October. He’s completed a staggering 77.3% of his passes with a 9.4 yards per attempt while accounting for eight scores (two rushing).
Sixth in average depth of target (9.6), Watson gets a Colts defense that 22 completions, 260 yards and two touchdowns per game. Indy must also be mindful that Watson averages 7.9 yards per scramble and that we haven’t seen a monster game from DeAndre Hopkins. Yet.
The fleas from the dog Goff had on Sunday will linger for some, but it’s indoors and the Falcons’ secondary has let Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray look Canton-worthy the past two weeks. Atlanta has the third-worst defense against QBs Fantasy-wise, and if Goff can survive the Falcons blitzing him to no end (opponents average more than 14 blitzes per game on him), he has a chance to rebound nicely.
To hell with ball control. Let Cousins fling the damn ball, because it’s working. He’s gone from an average of 7.4 yards per attempt in September to 11.4 YPA in his two October games while completing 78.6% of his passes. Cousins is now in the Top 10 in air yards per pass attempt (4.4) after languishing in the mid 3s last month. The Lions allow 291.6 passing yards per game but are limiting passers to 1.2 TD tosses per. He’ll get the yards but I also think he’ll get the TDs, especially if they get TE Kyle Rudolph back into the flow.
Unlike many, I’m not enamored with this matchup. Yes, the Ravens are 29th overall against the pass. However, they’re 10th overall in Fantasy because they don’t allow touchdowns. B-More is allowing a TD pass per game on average, and QBs are averaging a mere 7.3 yards on the ground. Wilson is going to miss TE Will Dissly (Achilles, done for 2019), especially near the red zone, so it’s going to come down to whether WRs Jaron Brown and DK.Metcalf can fill in from the 4-6 targets per game that were going to Dissly.
In a Sentence: Everything hinges on Davante Adams’ toe.
In a Sentence: For all the giddy feelings about the Texans following their win over the Chiefs, the defense is still 27th in Fantasy against opposing QBs.
In a Sentence: Only Jameis Winston has a better air yards per pass completion mark than Stafford’s 8.2.
In a Sentence: He’s second to Patrick Mahomes in passing yards after the catch (825).
In a Sentence: The Redskins allow 2.3 TD passes per game, and we have yet to see a monster game from Garoppolo….just sayin’.
In a Sentence: The Cardinals are the worst Fantasy defense against opposing QBs, making Jones an interesting punt who becomes very intriguing if Evan Engram is available.
In a Sentence: The Bears allow 0.8 TD passes per game; if Bridgewater is the answer here, I sure as hell don’t want to know the question.
In a Sentence: On average, Dalton is blitzed 16.1 times per game, which means you may need a spatula to scrape him off the field.
In a Sentence: I’d put good money that you’ll see Dwayne Haskins at some point.
In a Sentence: The Bills are one of three teams (Patriots, 49ers) allowing fewer than 10 Fantasy points per game against opposing passers, so good luck with that, Ryan.
A flashback at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/14 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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This just seems like a daily routine as David Jones almost added another victory under his belt. He ended up in third place and won $8,500. If you want to rack up some extra money and win some qualifiers and tournaments, you need to become a Gold member. Our Gold members have 24/7 access to our Slack channel where you can talk to all our DFS experts and pick their brains about your lineups. David can always be found in our NFL Slack Chat.
Dan Wehr had a solid choice as his value quarterback on the Gold NFL Cheatsheet with Kyler Murray. Murray had a great day as he went 27-of-37 passing for 340 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran 11 times for 32 yards while picking up the victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Now with two straight wins under his belt, this could be the type of performance we can expect for now on.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Kyler Murray looks like he is becoming comfortable as a NFL starting quarterback. He is starting to take over games and has back-to-back victories. Murray also became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 20 passes in his first six games. Next week the Cardinals head to New York to face the Giants, who have the 29th ranked defense in the NFL.
It was a battle of the pitching staffs in Houston last night in Game 2 of the ALCS between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. Carlos Correa had the biggest impact as he went 2-for-5 with a double, home run and a pair of RBI. One of those RBI was the walkoff shot you can see above. This was a game Houston needed as they tied the series as they head to New York. Expect Correa to move up in the order for their road games.
Here is a snippet from Dan Wehr, this time via the Daily Hot Shot. Stone had a backhanded goal in the third period against the Los Angeles Kings to up his season total to three for the year. Stone also led the team with five shots on goal during the game. Expect Stone to finish the year with around 60-65 points.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Mark Stone has been on fire as of late. He now has three goals in his last four games, including goals in back-to-back nights. He is averaging over three shots a game so expect the goal total to increase fast and often.
Week 6 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!
David also won back-to-back GPPs!
There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.
We have a handful of elite quarterbacks in elite spots this week. I don’t think you want to “punt” QB in Week Six NFL DFS.
Stud Quarterback: Matt Ryan ($8,000 FD,$6,400 DK)
My top guy this week has got to be Matt Ryan, who is going up against the terrible Arizona Cardinals pass defense. They have given up 12 touchdowns (2nd most in the NFL) through the air in the first five games. The ONLY thing the Atlanta Falcons have is an elite passing game. The Dirty Birds are ranked only behind Kansas City and the Rams in total pass offense. Ryan has 12 touchdowns (2nd in NFL) and over 300 yards in ALL five games. The Atlanta run game is non existent so Ryan will need to continue to push the ball down the field by airing it out to Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper.
It is also not wise to try and run against the Cardinals rush defense. They have surprisingly only given up two scores on the ground the entire season. Dan Quinn better attack what works against the Cardinals here if he wants to try and crawl out of that hot seat he is on with Arthur Blank. Ryan is 100% safe in cash games, and will be on my main lineup in GPPs. Lock him in with Hooper and whichever other wide receiver you can fit.
Stud Quarterback Pivots: Patrick Mahomes (should play, low ownership), Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson
Mid Quarterback: Kyler Murray ($7,700 FD, $6,500 DK)
The last two weeks the quarterback who played the Falcons has been on the Millionaire Maker team (Mariota and Watson). Marcus Mariota bounced back from an embarrassing zero touchdown game against the Jaguars to throw three touchdowns in ATL and last week Watson threw for five. Are we seeing a pattern here? Kyler’s bounce back game starts at 4:05 ET this Sunday. The Falcons have given up 12 receiving touchdowns this season. Murray has been about as constant (of a fantasy scorer) as you could hope for early in his rookie season. He is a dual threat QB who can score through the air or on the ground. The last two weeks he has run for a touchdown in both games. Last week he ran for 93 yards against Cincinnati and threw for 253. Murray’s upside versus this defense and price makes him a nice mid tier NFL DFS play this week.
Mid Quarterback Pivots: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson
I have zero interest in any cheaper quarterbacks.
Update: Kamara popped up with ankle issue at Thursdays practice. Bumping him down slightly. I am liking mid range RBs more and more this week.
Stud RB: Alvin Kamara ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK)
I am going with Alvin Kamara as my top high priced running back. Last week against the Bucs it was Teddy Bridgewater and Michael Thomas’ time to shine but against the Jags, the Saints should lean on their stud running back. The Jacksonville defense is giving up a league most 5.5 yards per carry and are tied for second most rushing touchdowns allowed (six). Kamara will obviously get his opportunities to run but also benefits by being targeted like the Saints WR2. You should always be looking to target players who get the ball in their hands the most on the offense and that is exactly what we have with Kamara. He is too talented to only have one rushing TD and one receiving TD on the year. I am calling for him to double that this week.
Stud Pivots: Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott
Mid RB: Chris Carson ($7,200 FD, $6,000 DK)
The Seahawks get the Browns on a short week after getting absolutely embarrassed on Monday Night Football. The Browns gave up three touchdowns to the running back against the 49ers. In the past two games Carson has gotten at least 22 carries and over 100 yards. He seems all but guaranteed to exceed value here. The Browns are far more susceptible on the ground than through the air. Carson should also get a few receiving targets. He caught a touchdown last game and one in the season opener. He has not run one in since game one but I think that changes here. He has multiple TD upside and should not be heavily owned in NFL DFS with so many options at running back. The ONLY thing that worries me is if Russell Wilson vultures a TD from him. If you play Carson, don’t do it on the same team as Wilson.
Mid Pivots: Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Leonard Fournette (I really like all three of these guys and rank them very close to Carson. Paying down for two cheaper running backs isn’t a bad strategy this week) Lev Bell on DraftKings.
Punt RB: Malcolm Brown, Joe Mixon (gets first TD), Chase Edmonds (If David Johnson is out) Kenyan Drake (DK)
Update: David Johnson looks like he is going to play. You can’t play Chase Edmonds if he is in.
Update: Todd Gurley looks like he is going to sit. Malcolm Brown will start and is min price. You have to get some share.
I listed more running backs than normal here, but there is a lot to like. I do not think you need to “dumpster dive”. Everyone above is listed in order of preference.
Stud WR: Julio Jones ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK)
Smash spot for Julio. I wrote up Matt Ryan as my top quarterback and this is his number one option. I really don’t see a way that Julio fails here. I think he easily surpasses 100 yards and gets targeted in the Red Zone whenever they are close. Julio’s brute strength makes him a touchdown threat anywhere on the field. He can run through defenders and once he gets going, no one will be able to catch him. I also don’t believe the Falcons will dial back on the passing game even if they are winning because they don’t have a running back, and absolutely have to win this game. Jones let us down last week, but I’ll let that scare everyone else off him, not me.
Stud Pivots: Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen
Mid WR: Will Fuller ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK)
Oh yes, I am going right back, and it is going to be glorious. If you think the Will Fuller faders were mad last week, wait until he gets in the end zone again this week. Everyone is going to say fade him because it is unsustainable, which three touchdowns is, but he is still only $6,600 on FanDuel!? He was targeted 16 times last week and caught 14! That is the Will Fuller I know. The Cheifs’ are going to be ready for this game, and I expect them to win, which means more passing for Watson and the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are ranked about mid tier in pass defense but that’s all about to change. They really don’t look good, plus they have not had much real competition. Here are the quarterbacks they have faced: Foles/Minshew, Carr, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford and Jacoby Brissett. DeShaun Watson is about to give this defense a run for it’s money, and I will take Fuller over Hopkins at a supreme discount in NFL DFS.
Mid WR Pivots: Michael Gallup (in my main lineup), Tyler Lockett, D.J. Chark (All very solid options)
Value WR: Larry Fitzgerald ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK)
A ridiculously low price, for a Hall of Fame receiver vs a terrible defense. The Atlanta Falcons are tied with the Cardinals and the Dolphins for the second most touchdowns given to wideouts. Receiving options against them are averaging 8.5 yards per catch. Larry Fitz knows he will be retiring soon however he is still way outperforming expectations. He seems like a guy who wants to get a couple more big games in before he throws in the towel and he knows how to pick them. I see him getting around 10 targets and a touchdown in this game. It also doesn’t hurt that the Cardinals running back, David Johnson, is questionable for the game. If he is out, bump up Fitz even further. At his price he is a phenomenal NFL DFS receiver to target.
WR Value Pivots: Calvin Ridley, Dede Westbrook, Christian Kirk (if he plays)
Update: WR Deep Value: Terry McLauin, KeeSean Johnson (don’t play if Kirk in), Marquise Goodwin, DeVante Parker
Update: Remove KeeSean Johnson if Kirk plays, removed Paul Richardson with Terry McLaurin in.
Tight End: Austin Hooper ($6,400 FD, $5,000 DK)
Duh. Against the Cardinals, in a potential shootout, and one of the league’s most productive tight ends to start the season. Easy number one, but will be highly owned. Still, I will have a lot of him and roster him on my main team. I have said it before, sometimes it is chalk because it is the best play. Don’t auto fade the best play in NFL DFS. Lock him in and figure out how to be different at other positions.
Tight End Pivots: George Kittle, Travis Kelce
I don’t think their is a big separation on NFL DFS defense this week. There is nothing I “love”. You do not have to pay all the way up for the Cowboys, but if you can fit them, they feel “safe”. I am not sure that “safe” wins GPP’s this week, but is will double you up in cash.
Order Updated
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Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.
Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.
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Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.
Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.
The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.
Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.
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Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.
Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.
He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.
As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.
Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.
Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.
Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.
Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.
Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.
Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?
Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.
Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.
Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.
Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.
Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).
Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.
The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.
Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.
Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.
Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.
At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.
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