Welcome to Monday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Monday and that means we have somewhat of a shortened slate. Tonight we are blessed with a 7-game slate of MLB DFS. We have a handful of top pitchers on this slate. We also have a handful of pitchers that stacking against is a usual play. It’s shaping up to be a small but solid slate.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
James Paxton vs. Minnesota Twins
Oft-injured James Paxton is finally healthy again and boy is he pitching well. Over the last month, Paxton has just been phenomenal. He’s pitched to an ERA of just over 3.4, but what’s most important is that he’s been racking up the strikeouts. Over that same period, Paxton has a nearly 34% k rate. There’s no one on this slate that has the K upside that he’s been showing.
What helps is that he’ll be facing a Twins lineup that has struggled mightily vs. southpaws this season. The Twins have a 28% k rate vs. lefties this season wOBA under .300. This all sets up extremely well for Paxton to continue his stretch of really solid pitching. He’s reached at least 20 DK points in 5 of his 6 starts this season. He should add to that number tonight. He’s also still under $10k.
Merrill Kelly vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Another pitcher under $10k tonight that’s in a really solid spot is Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gets a strong matchup tonight vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. This has been a strike-out-happy team all season. Against righties this season, the Brewers have a 25% strikeout rate. They’ve also done little in the way of damage as well as they have an OPS under .700 and a wOBA just a shade over .300.
Kelly for his part has pitched extremely well this season. We have to go all the way back to April 6 to find an outing where he was in single-digit DK points. Over his last 5 starts, he’s been over 15 DK points in all. With how well he’s been pitching, he should be able to navigate this lineup with relative ease tonight.
Other pitchers that I like tonight will be Hunter Brown vs. the all too disappointing Mets and Corbin Burnes vs. Arizona Diamondbacks. Personally, I’ll be sticking with the Paxton/Kelly combo in all my lineups.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Cincinnati Reds vs. Austin Gomber
The pick on Austin Gomber show heads to Cincinnati tonight. We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather on this one but if it plays, it’s an absolute smash spot for the Reds. Austin Gomber has been horrific this season. He boasts an ERA over 7 and if we dial that back to just the past 30 days, it balloons to nearly 8.5. Over his past 30 days, Gomber has allowed 7 homers and 10 barrels in just 22 innings of work. Hitters have a 46% hard-hit rate vs. him.
He’s not fooling anyone currently and until he figures it out on the mound, we’ll want to attack him at any chance we get. I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. Both sides of the plate have been crushing. Surprisingly though, lefties have been battering him a smidge more as they have a .447 wOBA vs. him and a .333 ISO. All hands on deck here.
I’m going to start my Reds stack with Matt McLain and Spencer Steer. Both guys have crushed lefties this season. In 34 plate appearances, McLain has a .456 wOBA and a .294 ISO. The youngster is going to be the heart and soul of this team going forward for a long time to come and I’m going to make sure he’s in my lineup tonight.
Steer has also been really solid, with a .363 wOBA and a .250 ISO. Steer also brings in the element of stolen bases for us as he’s up to 6 on the year. He homered yesterday and with how bad Gomber has been, a homer in back-to-back games is not out of the question. Other bats to include here are going to be anyone that makes the lineup. I’m all in on this lineup as long as this game plays.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Drew Smyly
Up until about a few weeks ago, Drew Smyly had actually been a serviceable pitcher. He was limiting teams to only a run or 2 each game. That has changed over the last few outings. He’s not gone 4 straight games with allowing at least 3 opponents to score. In his last outing against this same Pirates team, Smyly gave up 5 ER on 3 homers.
He’s back to his old bad ways of pitching and we’ll want to take advantage of that. Like Gomber, I’m going not going to be overly worried about splits. Smyly too has been worse against lefties so they’ll stay in play. That said, I’m going to focus more on the righties here.
The two bats I want here first are going to be Connor Joe and Rodolfo Castro. Both guys have been far and away the best hitters in this lineup vs. lefties. Joe has a .441 wOBA and Castro has a .457. Both guys also have ISO’s over .300 against southpaws this season. If we look at pitch selection, Smyly throws his sinker more than 40% of the time vs. righties. Both guys also crush lefty sinkers.
Another bat in this lineup that crushes lefty sinkers is Carlos Santana. Santana has a .438 wOBA vs. them over the past few years. He’s also coming into this one as the Pirates’ best hitter over the last week. He’s 7 for 23 over the last week with 2 bombs and a .929 OPS. Other bats I like here will be Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Only Joe, Castro, and Santana are priorities here for me though.
Other stacks I like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Bido and the Astros vs. Max Scherzer. Scherzer has been a huge disappointment and is coming off an embarrassing out vs. the Yankees.
MLB DFS Summary
My favorite stack in the Reds tonight carries some weather risk. There’s a potential for a PPD there, but if they play, they have a ton of upside. This has the makings for an odd slate tonight. A handful of pitchers carry modest risk of blowing up, but can also dominate the team they playing.
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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