MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/04/2021

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Welcome to the first Sunday of the 2021 baseball season. For those celebrating Easter, Happy Easter! For those celebrating Passover, we made it!

The focus today will be on Fanduel’s main slate which cuts off right before the Dodgers/Rockies game. So yes, we have a non Coors main slate to look forward to.

Today’s slate is void of aces. In looking at pitching, there’s no definitive path to success. There are a couple of pitchers that are ‘pretty good’, but not entirely safe. Then there are pitchers that are going to be high risk/high reward. I’m going high risk/high reward today. I’m feeling frisky!

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The ‘Aces’

The first pitcher I’m looking at today comes with some risk. Ian Anderson ($9k) faces off against a tough Phillies lineup. Anderson pitched to a 1.95 ERA last year which was a run and a half better than his xFIP. Although a 3.45 xFIP is good, you can’t expect to Anderson to perform as well as he did last year. He did have a k/9 of 11.41, which of all the pitchers going today would rank numero uno. 3 factors have me leaning towards Anderson. a 52.5% GB rate, a 27.5% FB rate, and a 25.90% hard hit rate last year. Those numbers combined can help and did help him limit damage. Not the safest play, but I am a fan.

The next pitcher I’m looking at is Michael Pineda ($7.3K). You know exactly what you’re getting with Pineda at this point in his career. Someone that’s going to limit damage, but not rack up a bunch of k’s. Pineda only threw 26 innings last year. In that short sample he kept hitters to a 23.2% hard hit rate and he did it by getting them to chase with a chase rate of 39%. He had a k rate 8.44/9 so there’s limited upside. But on a day where there just isn’t much in the way of pitching, sometimes you have to play it safe. This Brewers lineup is not the same lineup it was a couple of years ago. After Yelich, there just isn’t much.

The final pitcher I’m going to recommend is Tarik Skubal ($6k). Here’s my high risk/high reward play. Last season he pitched to a 10.41 k/9. He did this by throwing gas last year. This off-season he added some new pitches to his repertoire. He is a fly ball pitcher so be a little cautious. He had a 54% fb rate last year. With that being said though, the Indians lineup is watered down. You have Ramirez and then not much.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Of the 8 games in today’s main slate, 3 have an implied total greater than 5. One of those teams I’m going to eliminate from my thought process as I just don’t see the Red Sox being able to do that much damage. Their lineup just isn’t very good and we have seen what Means and Harvey did to them the last couple of days. This could very well bight me as Bruce Zimmermann was brutal last year. But until the Red Sox can prove they can hit, I’m staying clear.

The first team I’m looking to stack today are the Royals. Jordan Lyles was horrific last year. He pitched to a 5.92 xFIP and had a swinging strike rate of 6.7%. He doesn’t miss many bats. I’m going 1-3 here, maybe 1-5 depending on how the lineup shakes out today. Merrifield ($4k), Benintendi ($2.9k), and Santana ($3.3k). Do keep an eye on the lineup though as Benintendi did leave the game early yesterday.

The next spot is the good ole Bronx. The Blue Jays are giving TJ Zeuch a spot start today. Although he is predominantly a ground ball pitcher, he doesn’t miss many at bats. He’s got low k stuff. Not missing many at bats is normally a recipe for disaster against a tough lineup like the Yankees. Judge ($4k), Hicks ($3.2K), Stanton ($3.8K), and Torres ($3.8k) is where I’m leaning with this stack.

My final stack recommendation is the Cardinals. Jeff Hoffman was bad last year. He pitched to a 5.39 xFIP. He had a FB rate of almost 39%. And a hard hit rate of almost 43%. Feel confident in rolling with Arenado ($3.8k) and Goldschmidt ($4k). Both have career woba’s of over .368 against right handed pitching. Cardinals fans are going to have a great summer with these 2.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

Keep an eye on Wrigley. There’s currently no line on the game and that could be due to the winds. If it’s blowing out, load em up. If it’s blowing in, consider looking towards Zach Davies as one of your pitchers.

While I think every slate is fun, this slate has the makings of a super fun slate. This is a slate where offense will reign supreme.

Good luck and hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards!