The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 1 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my TNF showdown article.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Lamar Jackson is far and away the most expensive (and highest-upside) player in this contest, but I think we’re going to need him in the MVP spot or one of the FLEX spots to cash. The Raiders defense is dealing with lots of turnover and communication/teamwork aspects of their unit could see some struggles in Week 1, especially against a playmaker like Jackson. He should be running a little more than usual with the makeshift backfield they’re employing, and all the new faces just getting into the Baltimore system.
Ravens notes: The most important players to roster will be Jackson, TE Mark Andrews, RB Ty’Son Williams (who could see an enormous Week 1 workload) and WR Marquise Brown, but we could see some of the newly acquired veterans (Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins stand out the most) or fringe offensive players like Devin Duvernay — or even rookie Tylan Wallace — play a role. I’m also very intersted in the Ravens DST and K Justin Tucker, since this one could be lower-scoring than if both these offenses ere at full strength.
Raiders notes: Josh Jacobs is questionable to play tonight, and the best possible offensive combo for the Raiders is likely Derek Carr/Darren Waller, with Waller being the best one-off if we overstack Ravens. We’re not getting enough of a discount on Kenyan Drake to focus too much on him, but he’s a GPP play given his ability to haul in reception and rack up the points that way — especially if Jacobs is unavailable. It’s interesting to see the less heralded WR Bryan Edwards with a salary higher than WR Henry Ruggs III, who is another possible playmaker. We also have to consider Hunter Renfrow and Willie Snead IV, but these WRS are all pretty risky plays.
Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use too many Raiders. I could see 3 BAL/3 LV working, but most of my builds will be 4 BAL/2 LV.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Ignore kickers and defenses. Both Tucker and the Ravens DST are in play, and Daniel Carlson could factor as well tonight.
Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 15 NFL DFS contests!
We should have a fun matchup in NFL DFS for Week 15 here on Thursday Night Football!
We’ve got myriad skill position injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s showdown, but thankfully neither QB carries an injury designation. Despite the Chargers being 3-point road dogs, Justin Herbert is the chalk at CPT and should be in most of the roster builds that get clicked in before lock. While we could argue there’s some reason to consider fading the gunslinger rookie (three consecutive games under 20 DK points), I’m much less excited about the prospect of rolling out Derek Carr in the top spot. Carr is coming off his two best fantasy performances of 2020, but I have some trust issues after his putrid performance in Week 12 @ATL.
Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are game-time decisions, and if they sit, I’ll definitely be pivoting more to Carr and TE Darren Waller as the core of my builds, mixing in shares of whomever gets the start at RB for the Chargers, be that Austin Ekeler (questionable but expected to play with a quad injury) or Kalen Ballage. Right now, it looks like Ekeler should be good to go, but Ballage would be an obscenely good value if he gets back the workhorse role he had in the weeks before Ekeler returned.
Chargers pass catchers to consider (if either or both of Allen and Williams are inactive) include TE Hunter Henry (a solid play in any event) WR Tyron Johnson – who finished Week 14 with 6-55-1 on seven targets from Herbert – and even Jalen Guyton, a downfield target who’s had 40 targets and a 21-377-3 receiving line this season. He’s a “final piece” type of plug in who could exploit the Raiders secondary issues.
We could also see more offensive snaps and a handful or targets for rookie K.J. Hill, who fellow former Ohio St. Buckeye Cris Carter said was a steal in the 2020 NFL draft.
The Raiders have placed Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 reserve list, so he’s unavailable for this showdown. That gives Nelson Agholor a slight bump and greatly increases the chances of a big game for Hunter Renfrow. Rookie WR Bryan Edwards, not targeted in Sunday’s loss to Indy and without a catch in the Jets game, might also be a factor. He and Zay Jones are fringe plays at best.
As for kickers and defenses, I trust Raiders K Dylan Carlson a lot more than Chargers K Michael Badgley, who hasn’t scored in the past two weeks. Carlson is even cheaper on DK. With three negative DK point performances in their last three games, the Raiders DST are more expensive and have a lot less to offer from a gamebreaking perspective than the Chargers DST. But if the Bolts are without their top two WRs, they have to be considered in the occasional GPP.
Injury Update: As of 1 p.m. EST, Ekeler is expected to play, Williams is doubtful, and Allen remains a true GTD.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Include Darren Waller somewhere. He’s the most involved player for both teams and is on the field for almost every Raiders offensive snap.
DON’T: Ignore the Chargers inactives – it’s going to have a huge effect on Herbert’s effectiveness and the players who impact this showdown.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Chalk: Drew Brees (DK $15,900, FD $16,000)
Pivot: Josh Jacobs (DK $14,400, FD $13,500)
Contrarian #1: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)
Contrarian #2: Emmanuel Sanders (DK $13,200, FD $10,000)
Contrarian #3: Darren Waller (DK $11,100, FD $11,500)
Predicting showdown ownership in NFL and NBA is always tricky, because of the last-minute adjustments that folks tend to make reacting to late-breaking news (I did it just last night in the Lakers game by removing Rajon Rondo from all my showdown lineups in the minutes before lock). But I have a feeling folks will be starting a lot of lineups with Drew Brees up top and filling the rest in with affordable options. It’s certainly a viable strategy this week given the softer pricing and absence of Michael Thomas (ankle), who’s already been ruled out.
I will likely be using Josh Jacobs at MVP in my builds, however, since he has the most guaranteed touches and what I feel is the most upside in this game as a true workhorse back. It’s not a contrarian play, but it’s a way to differentiate your lineups (especially on FanDuel) and get some built-in variance in a format that requires it.
This is a game the Raiders can win, especially if they dominate time of possession, and we don’t often see the Saints without their top WR and the threat of his 5-15 catches per game. If we start with Jacobs (rather than Brees or Alvin Kamara), it’s a lot easier to fit the main offensive cogs from both teams.
Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders and Darren Waller are also MVP options, but the odds are against them dominating the game enough to warrant more than some one-off builds.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Use Drew Brees as your MVP with no Saints position players and the Raiders DST.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Use players with almost no shot of seeing the field, regardless of their salary – though we can make the case for including more Saints positional punts given the injury to Thomas.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
We’ve arrived to the final “normal” week of the regular season. It will be normal in terms of starters who are expected to play and contribute. Week 17 will bring a whole new host of opportunities to cash due to second-teamers running the show, but this week I’ll discuss the injuries that will affect us this Saturday through Monday. Note that all of the following prices are from DraftKings. Let’s get into the DFS: Final Injury Report
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Dalvin Cook ($8,100)
In Week 16 it seems that Cook dislocated his shoulder. My tweet below will give a better description of what happened. The bottom line is that when this happens damage occurs to the labrum, which helps to hold the shoulder joint in place. Cook has damaged his labrum twice before so this is not a new injury, which counter-intuitively is an advantage. When a person has this kind of recurring instability issue, most of the damage is done after the first dislocation.
In fact, a study in 2018 found that 92% of NFL players who had a shoulder instability injury (subluxation or dislocation) were able to return that same season. Players who had a subluxation (i.e. shoulder dislocated partially but went back on its own) returned to play at a median at zero weeks. This means they didn’t miss any time. The players who had a complete dislocation (required some pushing and pulling to put back) were able to play at a median of three weeks. This means half of them came back before three weeks and half of them came back after three weeks. The downside? Almost half of these players (47%) re-injured the shoulder once they returned.
The question is this: will the Vikings put Cook out there knowing he’s at a major risk for a recurrence that will almost certainly land him on the IR? They can either risk-it-for-the-biscuit for a shot at clinching a playoff spot or allow Cook to heal up for a few weeks before the playoffs begin. A classic case of what “should” a team do versus what *will* a team do? Check back with me for updates on Cook’s practice report but even if he’s active I cannot imagine using Cook in cash games or tournaments due to his volatility.
Alexander Mattison ($5,400)
Next on DFS: Final Injury Report Mattison’s last carry in Week 14 happened with 2:08 left in the 4th quarter. He took a handoff to the right and was tackled with both his ankles in an awkward position. Although this is admittedly speculation, my hypotheses are this:
If all Mattison did was pick up a low ankle sprain to his left ankle, he could return to play this week with minimal concerns (relative to the other two types of injuries) so long as he gets in at least one full practice by Saturday. Even if Mattison is active without Cook, I’m not confident he’ll dominate the snaps and be healthy enough to produce with Mike Boone ($,900) chomping at the bit. The Vikings have shown they have no issues spreading the snaps around.
So what does this all mean? I’m only confident in using one Vikings running back under one specific set of circumstances: Mike Boone is both Mattison and Cook are active. Otherwise, the entire backfield is a fade in cash and tournaments
Update: There’s nothing new to report on the Vikings backfield other than confirmation of what was projected earlier this week: Alexander Mattison has a high ankle sprain, Dalvin Cook needs time off, and Mike Boone is a smash play and money saver this week. Obviously he’ll be big time chalk, so try sneaking in Ameer Abdullah into a few tournament lineups.
Dak Prescott ($6,400)
Prescott is dealing with finger sprains, a wrist sprain, and now apparently a shoulder issue. The Cowboys reported his MRI is “clean” but as we know from a year of injury reports from me, the MRI correlates very poorly with how an athlete feels. He could be in significant pain. Given the set of circumstances working against Dak with all of his injuries to the throwing shoulder, he’s a cash game fade for me. There’s no reason to take on the risk of re-injury to the shoulder this week. To make matters worse, Dak actually sat out of practice today while Cooper Rush took first-team reps. So, even if Dak is active, pivot to Carson Wentz ($5,800) in tournaments who has had no choice but to shoulder the offensive load for the Eagles in a crucial game to determine the NFC Least East.
Update: Dak was not listed on the final injury report but make no mistake about it, he’s injured. The A.C. joint injury he sustained takes at least a week to partially heal. There’s no plausible way he is 100% considering he missed an entire week of practice for the first time in his career. He is not a cash game play this week.
D.J. Chark ($6,300)
After rolling away(literally) from Week 14 in a walking boot and a scooter, it seems Chark has risen from the dead and is not running routes and cutting hard without restrictions. This is a head-scratcher to me as usual, a rolling scooter is a sign of the IR for players. Whatever the case may be monitoring his practice reports and only use him in cash if he can get in a full practice before Sunday.
Josh Jacobs ($6,700)
Last week I didn’t expect Jacobs to be active but he indeed was and took on a full workload. The result was that against a bottom two rushing defense and bottom five passing defense Jacobs totaled just 89 rushing yards on 24 attempts and two receptions for 20 yards. Now that he’s been officially ruled out for Week 16, it’s evident that I was a week early on Jacobs (read my breakdown on him from Week 15).
DeAndre Washington ($4,000) will be the chalk so, consider a pivot to Keenan Allen ($6,300) against these pathetic Raiders linebackers who won’t be able to slow him down out of the slot.
Update: Jacobs was officially ruled out early in the week, and Jalen Richard is a tournament play in a game the Raiders are seven point dogs in.
JuJu Smith Schuster
JuJu was finally a full participant in practice with no setbacks this week, which is only slightly encouraging given the long road he’s had since a presumed MCL/meniscus issue dating back to Week 11. You can fire him up in tournaments as a contrarian play.
Joe Mixon
Mixon had a setback early in the week with a calf issue as he went from full practice on Wednesday, to partial on Thursday and back to full on Friday. This calf issue is only mildly concerning and theoretically shouldn’t affect Mixon’s production. Just keep in mind the achilles is always at risk here but it appears he’s doing just fine.
Thanks for reading DFS: Final Injury Report. Check back later in the week with me for definitive injury fades/plays.
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Featured image courtesy of Keith Allison.
Wow. The days leading up to Week 14 kick off have been full of injury drama and news revelations. I’ll touch on the Dalvin Cook saga, Josh Jacobs’ shoulder, Evan Engram’s dance with the practice report (and DFS players’ hearts) and other players’ status in this DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Dalvin Cook ($8,700)
There is a good amount of confusion surrounding Cook’s situation, and many DFS players aren’t sure how to view him. It is a bit ridiculous that Cook suffered an injury severe enough to rule him out on Monday night, but is no longer on the practice report. Not only that but when the cameras panned to him and the trainers, it was evident Cook was having an emotional response to the injury indicating that it was extremely painful for him. My brief twitter conversation with Dr. Jesse Morse is below:
Situations like this are exactly why injury analysts are crucial. Below I’ll outline possible outcomes involving Cook and Alexander Mattison ($5,100).
Ultimately, this situation makes Cook a fade in cash, but at $5,100 Mattison warrants consideration in cash simply because any way you slice it, he’ll more than likely see an increased workload.
Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
Jacobs is not a cash option this week, period. He came out and admitted he has a fractured shoulder, which can help to explain his lack of passing game involvement if this has been a season-long injury. To make matters worse in DFS, he did not practice this week until a very limited session on Friday. He’s also a bit pricey against the middle of the road Titans and if the Raiders continue to give up points by the dozen, Jacobs can easily be game-scripted out. The only player I’m considering in this game is Ryan Tannehill ($7,300).
Le’Veon Bell ($7,300)
Bell missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, which is enough for me to completely fade him from a health perspective. We’ve been down this road with Tyler Lockett in Week 13 who followed the same pattern and saw a season-low in targets and snap share. Bell, if active, could be dealing with residual fatigue and dehydration that will cap his touches and production. Instead, I’m pivoting to the Miami passing game that has been on fire lately and is bolstered by the fact that star safety Jamal Adams has already been ruled out with an ankle injury.
The rest of the players in the DFS Injury Fades and Plays are tournament plays and only cash considerations for those who abide by the risk-it-biscuit ideology.
Darwin Thompson ($5,200)
Thompson is not a viable cash option but has a chance to be a slate breaker in tournaments. With the loss of Darrel Williams to the IR and Damien Williams still recovering from a ribs injury, Thompson vaults into the (basically) co-starter position alongside LeSean McCoy ($6,100). Given that the Chiefs signed perennial just-a-guy Spencer Ware, I expect Thompson to see enough work to warrant free square status this week against the Patriots.
David Njoku ($4,900)
Njoku should be completely healthy from a wrist fracture he suffered in Week Two and is a middle of the road option against the lowly Bengals defense this week. From a health perspective, he should be more than ready to go and given the injury should not have impacted his ability to aerobic conditioning, he could be another slate breaker at low ownership. The concern I have with Njoku is his quarterback, who has been a disappointment this year, to say the least. From a cash perspective, Njoku is still on my wait-and-see list, but I’ll be using him in tournaments this week given his opponent, projected ownership and low price tag.
Evan Engram
Engram (and Rhett Ellison) has officially been ruled out. Kaden Smith will be a chalky option against the Eagles in the showdown slates, but he’s a decent option considering the single-game slates are really more about ownership and being contrarian in different spots. Use Smith as a free square to differentiate yourself elsewhere. For example, Saquon Barkley could be low owned due to his recent lack of production. Stacking him with the ghost of the ghost of check down Eli Manning.
Thank you for reading my DFS Injury Fades and Plays for Week 14. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to find on Twitter or comment them down below. Good luck!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Photo courtesy of Ser Amantio di Nicola.
Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.
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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)
Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)
With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.
Greg Olsen ($4,900)
Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.
Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.
Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)
Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.
Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.
Dalvin Cook ($8,700)
If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.
Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.
With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.
Adam Thielen ($7,300)
It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.
Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.
Julio Jones ($7,800)
Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.
Austin Hooper ($6,600)
Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.
Tyler Lockett
Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:
After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.
Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.
Evan Engram
Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.
Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
A look back at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 12/2 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.
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With a couple of weeks before the World Fantasy Football Championship in Puerto Rico, Javy took down another tournament. This gives him five of the 80 spots in the WFFC. He isn’t the only Win Daily family member going as David Jones and Jason Mezrahi both have an entry. With seven of the 80 possible spots, Win Daily has a great chance to take the $1 million top prize. Good luck to the guys! If you want the ability to see how these three and the rest of our DFS experts are constructing their lineups, become a Premium member today!
David Jones took down another Showdown yesterday. I’ve lost track of how many he has won but it seems like a weekly occurrence.
As both guys had him as a value running back on the NFL DFS DraftKings Cheatsheet, Josh Jacobs was a good play on last night’s slate. Going up against the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium, Jacobs ran 17 times for 104 yards. Jacobs has been playing great in his first year in the NFL and is a solid choice any week this season.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Josh Jacobs is on his way to becoming AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. He hit the 1,000-yard mark early in the game and has five 100-yard rushing games this year. Expect Jacobs to continue dominating the ground game as the Raiders try to make a Wild Card spot.
Here is a snippet from the Sunday Night Positional Breakdown article from Brandon C. Williams. Bradley Beal had a strong night against the Clippers on the road as he went for 23 points, five rebounds, 11 assists, and two steals. He did not make a three-pointer and was just 7-of-19 from the field.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Beal has been an efficient scorer but has struggled shooting the past couple of games. He is one of the best players in the league with 28 points a night and 7.3 assists, which rank in the Top 11 in each category. With that type of production, expect a solid game every time Beal is on the court.
This is what Scott Engel had to say on his NFL DFS Values and Punt Plays From the King article. Jared Goff had a solid night against the Arizona Cardinals going 32-for-43 with 424 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This was his best game since facing the Cincinnati Bengals over a month ago.
Outlook for the rest of the season: This was exactly what the doctor ordered for Goff. The Rams had the passing game going early as Goff completed 74 percent of his passes. The only reason he stopped was due to the game getting out of hand. Expect solid games out of him for the rest of the regular season and make a run towards one of the NFC Wild Card spots.
We’ve got your NFL Week 13 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!
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DK ($10,500) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey scored another 30+ DK points last week and while the price came up on FD to $11K, he’s still affordable on both sites. At some point, you’d think the heavy volume would diminish, but it doesn’t. He’s a fine play at home versus Washington in Week 13.
DK ($7,400) FD ($7,600)
Barkley should be a featured weapon Sunday against the Packers (ina game that will be played in rainy weather) and should get a boatload ofcarriers and usage – the red zone included. Green Bay struggled to defend therun and while he’s far from the fantasy ceiling and floor of McCaffrey, he’s oneof the best cash game options we have, especially at the reduced price on FD.
DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)
Jones makes sense as a bargain cash gameplay on DK and has an excellent matchup in what should be a positive game script against the Giants. The weather could force the Packers to run the ball a lot more. I wouldn’t play both Barkley and Jones together, but both should get plenty of opportunities to produce.
Also consider:Le’Veon Bell, Jonathan Williams
DK ($6,900) FD ($7,700)
The shoulder injury has kept him limited again this week, but he’sstill a GPP option facing the league’s worst defense against RBs. No need to overthinkthis – if he’s active and not seriously limited, he’s worth using in GPPs.
DK ($7,600) FD ($8,600)
We’ll keep an eye on news about Henry (hamstring) over theweekend, but the questionable tag shouldn’t diminish our enthusiasm for him inGPPs – especially because he doesn’t have much competition for carries in theTitans offense. He’s got 347 rushing yards and four TDs over his last twogames.
DK ($5,400) FD ($5,800)
Jordan Howard could be back this week, but Miles Sanders stillmakes sense in GPPs. His speed and usage in all aspects of the Eagles offensecould see him flourish against a poor Miami defense. I wouldn’t recommend him incash games unless Howard is inactive, but he’s going to make many of my GPPbuilds regardless.
Also consider: Todd Gurley,Phillip Lindsay, Joe Mixon, Ronald Jones
DK ($7,300) FD($7,000)
It’s not a great matchup, but I’m also not convinced the Jags areready to get away from their current offensive style with Nick Foles undercenter. I expect them to try to grind out a win vs. the Bucs and do so with alot of shorter passes and plenty of involvement from Fournette.
DK ($5,700) FD ($6,700)
Melvin Gordon has typically struggled against the Broncos, so wecould see a few more touches and targets for Ekeler in Week 13. He’s a muchbetter play on DK with the full-point PPR, and the upside is still there becauseof his big-play capability.
Also consider: Nick Chubb, MarkIngram, Tevin Coleman
DK ($4,800) FD ($5,800)
McCoy and Darrell Williams will shoulder the load for the Chiefswith Damien Williams looking unlikely to suit up this week. I like McCoy alittle better, but Darrel Dubs is seven cheaper at $4,400 on DK.
DK ($4,500) FD($5,400)
Guice has a favorable matchup vs. the Panthers (ranked 30th againstRBs), and he should probably receive more touches than Adrian Peterson. Ownershipin GPPs should be down and we could see a breakthrough performance for theembattled young back this week.
Additional plays: Darrel Williams, Jalen Richard (if Jacobs is out or limited)
Goal: 56.5, Prize: 2x
Let’s go with both RBs and a WR for this matchup in the rain. Both Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones should see increased volume and Davante Adams if healthy) can round out our choices.
We’ve got your NFL Week 12 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win you some major green in huge GPPs!
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DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)
With at least 23 DK points in four straight games and averaging a massive 32.4 DK PPG, CMC is again top dog in all formats. I’m not going to bore you anymore with his resume at this point, and while the matchup is difficult compared to others he’s faced, it doesn’t freak me out enough to avoid him. Just lock the guy in and move on.
DK ($8,100) FD ($8,200)
If you can’t fit in McCaffrey in your cash lineups, thenshame on you. No, really, Chubb has some competition for touches now, but he’sanother back facing a poor opponent who could clean up this week and make his fantasyowners very happy. He’s hasn’t scored since Week 6, so he’s due.
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,300)
We nailed Kamara last week, and he was under 10 percent owned in large-field GPPs (9.58% in the DK Millionaire Maker). I’m smitten with how Kamara fits into the Saints offense and can break off enormous plays as opponents get distracted by the plodding style of Latavius Murray, the pass-catching ability of Michael Thomas and the multiple speed options (Ted Ginn, Taysom Hill) who complement Kamara’s soaring talent. He’s probably cash viable but is best deployed in GPPs.
DK ($7,400) FD ($8,000)
Jacobs is again nursing the same shoulder injury, but he’sa GPP darling this season, getting lots of work in all aspects of the Raiders’offense. Last week an underwhelming fantasy total, but he’s a better bet toreach paydirt in Week 12 and score 15-25 DK points.
DK ($6,900) FD ($8,400)
The Titans would like to win this division rivalry without throwing the ball a lot, as they grabbed a win over the Chiefs last week with Ryan Tannehill attempting fewer than 20 passes. Henry has a massive upside in this matchup and is one of the strongest runners in the game.
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,000)
The other side of the Titans-Jags game features Fournette, who last week was a bit of a disappointment. For Week 12, Fournette’s price is down on both sites and he’s almost a bargain on FD. He’s not a high-profile name and he could go under-owned in GPPs after drawing just 4-5 percent ownership last week.
DK ($5,900) FD ($6,700)
The Bengals are bad, but Mixon has 200 rushing yards and 45 carries over his last two games. He’s the focal point of this offense and the Steelers are a team in turmoil, so I’ll be locking this bell-cow into about 20-25 percent of my GPPs and hopefully staying ahead of the field.
Also consider: Le’Veon Bell, Jaylen Samuels, James White, David Montgomery
DK ($7,500) FD ($8,100)
This could get interesting. Ezekiel’s ownership was at 14.06% in the Millionaire Maker last week, and he reached 20 DK points, but this week against a much tougher opponent (the Patriots allow the fewest points to fantasy RBs), that ownership level should plummet, even though he still has plenty of upsides and the price has come way down. He could be a sneaky play in GPPs.
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,300)
The Bills’continued reliance on Frank Gore (11 rushing attempts last game) keepsSingletary from getting the 20 attempts he’ll likely need to break through intoGPP stardom, but the Broncos are average against the run and Singletary is atalented back with upside – and probably some relatively low ownership this week.
Also consider: Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson, Phillip Lindsay
DK ($5,000) FD ($5,600)
Sanders is a talented back and Jordan Howard hasn’t yet beencleared for contact. With the rookie getting the bulk of work out of the Phillybackfield and having such enormous upside based on his speed and shiftiness, I’lltake the chance against the Seahawks in some GPPs.
DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)
Michel is still just too cheap on DK and had 10 carries and four targets last week. I expect the Patriots to use him a little more this week against the Cowboys – who are more susceptible to straight-line power runners – making him a fine value play in Week 12.
DK ($4,800) FD ($5,700)
Cohen saw an uptick in usage last week and could get more workin Week 12. He’s scored receiving TDs in two straight and could make it a thirdagainst this dubious Giants defensive unit.
DK ($4,700) FD ($5,400)
Guice has an excellent matchup and big-play upside, so he’son my list for Week 12 GPP value plays. This team is still committed to giving AdrianPeterson touches, but Guice is cheaper and probably the better back.
DK ($4,400) FD ($5,500)
Ballage remains cheap, but his upside is limited,especially against an improving Browns defensive unit. But with Mark Waltondone with football for the foreseeable future, the volume could mean viability onDK.
Additional plays: Ronald Jones, J.D. McKissic, Latavius Murray
Goal: 78.5, Prize: 3x
Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara are my picks (two RBs and a WR) for notching the most fantasy points in this Week 12 matchup. Let’s go big for 3x since they all catch passes, they can all score multiple TDs and go over 150 total yards and offer monster upside.
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