Week 15 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Chargers at Raiders

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 15 NFL DFS contests!

Week 15 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

We should have a fun matchup in NFL DFS for Week 15 here on Thursday Night Football!

Chalk: Justin Herbert (DK $17,700, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Darren Waller (DK $14,100, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #1: Derek Carr (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Austin Ekeler (DK $15,600, FD $13,500)

FD/DK Value: Josh Jacobs (DK $8,800 FLEX, FD $13,000)

DK Punts: Hunter Henry ($5,800 FLEX) and Kalen Ballage ($2,400 FLEX if Ekeler OUT)

We’ve got myriad skill position injuries to monitor ahead of tonight’s showdown, but thankfully neither QB carries an injury designation. Despite the Chargers being 3-point road dogs, Justin Herbert is the chalk at CPT and should be in most of the roster builds that get clicked in before lock. While we could argue there’s some reason to consider fading the gunslinger rookie (three consecutive games under 20 DK points), I’m much less excited about the prospect of rolling out Derek Carr in the top spot. Carr is coming off his two best fantasy performances of 2020, but I have some trust issues after his putrid performance in Week 12 @ATL.

Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are game-time decisions, and if they sit, I’ll definitely be pivoting more to Carr and TE Darren Waller as the core of my builds, mixing in shares of whomever gets the start at RB for the Chargers, be that Austin Ekeler (questionable but expected to play with a quad injury) or Kalen Ballage. Right now, it looks like Ekeler should be good to go, but Ballage would be an obscenely good value if he gets back the workhorse role he had in the weeks before Ekeler returned.

Chargers pass catchers to consider (if either or both of Allen and Williams are inactive) include TE Hunter Henry (a solid play in any event) WR Tyron Johnson – who finished Week 14 with 6-55-1 on seven targets from Herbert – and even Jalen Guyton, a downfield target who’s had 40 targets and a 21-377-3 receiving line this season. He’s a “final piece” type of plug in who could exploit the Raiders secondary issues.

We could also see more offensive snaps and a handful or targets for rookie K.J. Hill, who fellow former Ohio St. Buckeye Cris Carter said was a steal in the 2020 NFL draft.

The Raiders have placed Henry Ruggs III on the COVID-19 reserve list, so he’s unavailable for this showdown. That gives Nelson Agholor a slight bump and greatly increases the chances of a big game for Hunter Renfrow. Rookie WR Bryan Edwards, not targeted in Sunday’s loss to Indy and without a catch in the Jets game, might also be a factor. He and Zay Jones are fringe plays at best.

As for kickers and defenses, I trust Raiders K Dylan Carlson a lot more than Chargers K Michael Badgley, who hasn’t scored in the past two weeks. Carlson is even cheaper on DK. With three negative DK point performances in their last three games, the Raiders DST are more expensive and have a lot less to offer from a gamebreaking perspective than the Chargers DST. But if the Bolts are without their top two WRs, they have to be considered in the occasional GPP.

Injury Update: As of 1 p.m. EST, Ekeler is expected to play, Williams is doubtful, and Allen remains a true GTD.

Week 15 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Include Darren Waller somewhere. He’s the most involved player for both teams and is on the field for almost every Raiders offensive snap.

DON’T: Ignore the Chargers inactives – it’s going to have a huge effect on Herbert’s effectiveness and the players who impact this showdown.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Justin Herbert
2. Darren Waller
3. Derek Carr
4. Austin Ekeler (if active)
5. Josh Jacobs
6. Keenan Allen (questionable, GTD)
7. Nelson Agholor
8. Hunter Henry
9. Mike Williams (questionable, GTD)
10. Tyron Johnson (bump if Keenan Allen sits)
11. Hunter Renfrow
12. Dylan Carlson
13. Jalen Guyton (bump if Mike Williams sits)
14. Kalen Ballage (huge bump if Ekeler sits)
15. Chargers DST
16. Justin Jackson
17. Devontae Booker
18. Raiders DST
19. Foster Moreau
20. Zay Jones
21. Bryan Edwards
22. K.J. Hill (bump if Allen/Williams sit)
23. Michael Badgley
24. Donald Parham
25. Jason Witten