Tag:

golf betting tips

2023 Farmers Insurance Open: All You Need To Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Farmers Insurance Open hosted at Torrey Pines — The imposing Torrey Pines provides a formidable test this week

Jon Rahm continued his absolute dominance in the world of golf at The American Express. Making it 4 wins from 6 starts across the globe is a rare feat. I note his somewhat snarky comments about still not ranked number 1 as understandable. Fortunately for him, this is a golf course built for him going against our 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks.

The simple fact is, he is unbackable at current pricing. This is a golfer in such great form, but at such a short price, we just have to live with the fact that he may win and if he does then fair play to him. He would rightly have earned that World Number 1 title that he obviously covets. In our favour is a volatile weather forecast and an extremely tough test of golf that bites at every corner.

Course Analysis & Comp Courses

Torrey Pines plays host this week in another tournament where course rotation comes into play. The course is certainly iconic, however presenting a stern challenge. Notably, the course is long and the rough is thick. The comments from Director of Agronomy for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, Devin Cullen, in the greenkeeper notes make for interesting reading:

“Following the holiday season, frequent rain events hit the property. We have seen years with precipitation totals much higher than what we are seeing, but it is the frequency and consistency that these storms have hit that has given the property little time to dry down. With a few rain events still projected between now and tournament, I’m expecting the course to play longer and thicker than it already does. Should be fun.”

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/torrey-pines-kikuyu-rough-instruction

The rough is indeed thicker this week at 3.5in. It is also Kikuyu, which is sticky and thick, and found in many South African courses. It can snare the hosel of the club, turn your iron over, and suddenly see your ball flying left. Driving distance will be a premium, but expect accuracy to also be a factor here. There will also be a disproportionate long iron shots on this course. With the higher than typical rainfall, the course may play longer and that could also become a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

The North Course provides some mild relief, with golfers playing one of their first two rounds around there. However, the three rounds on the South Course should keep overall scoring low. We can expect a winning total in the range of -10 to -15 for the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open. Comparable courses would be Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Weather

To add to the test, there does appear to be some stern breezes in store for the players. Particularly in the 2nd round on Thursday afternoon, when gusts may reach up to 35 mph. The 2023 Farmers Insurance Open should provide entertaining viewing!

There are two arguments to be made here. One, the North Course is significantly easier. It may be best to be on the easier course in higher winds. However, the South Course can very easily produce a score of 78 without too much difficulty.

Contrarily, the North Course provides a path to victory. It is one round that allows for some lower scoring, which has been chronicled by several past winners going low on the North Course and then holding on for survival at the South Course.

I then to favour being on the easier course on the tougher day. The South Course is brutal at the best of times, and it may become near unplayable in these winds. Regardless, I want players starting as early as possible on Thursday morning. This should allow at least 9 holes in mild to moderate winds until the higher gusts arrive from 1pm onwards.

https://www.windy.com/32.897/-117.245?32.370,-117.245,8,m:ezYacTK

2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Suggested Staking

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite
2.5pts E/W $31.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Keegan Bradley
1pt E/W $67.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Alex Smalley
1pt E/W $81.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.80

Brendan Steele
1pts E/W $141.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.25

Beau Hossler
0.5pts E/W $161.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $5.75
3pts Top 40 $2.88

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value
0.5pts E/W 226.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)
1pt Top 20 $6.00
3pts Top 40 $3.10

Golfer Profiles

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Favourite

Taylor Montgomery headlined our selections last week, and little has changed to damper the enthusiasm. He was sitting in 2nd after the first round, nearly securing a first round leader. With just three holes to play in the tournament, he was just one shot off the lead. The 16th was a good scoring chance and he failed to make birdie, meaning he had to attack the pin at the island green 17th. However, that need to take an aggressive approach led to finding the water and ended his chances.

But, the fact is, he once again put himself in a position to win. That has been a common occurrence for him ever since starting his PGA Tour rookie season. He now arrives at an event he has an emotional connection, and form, with. Montgomery received a sponsor exemption for the Farmers Insurance Open and duly finished 11th at what was his second ever PGA Tour start.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sJXs53JHw

On paper, this is also a test that should suit. He has plenty of power off the tee to handle the length of course. It is also inevitable that with the winds forecast all players will miss some greens here. His excellent putting will come in handy in those situations. It also helps going out 2nd on the North Course for the windy Thursday weather. We do have a shortening in his price here, but he also faces a weaker field, and arrives in excellent form to secure his maiden PGA Tour victory.

Keegan Bradley

I have Bradley as one of the better value plays on the board, where his elite long iron play could become a factor at this track. Bradley has 6 Top 25 finishes at this event, including a 4th and a 5th. Bradley secures a 9:20am tee time on the North Course Thursday AM.

Adding to the appeal is that Bradley is long and straight off the tee. He ranks 20th for SG: OTT and 18th for SG: APP in this field. A number of those ranked lower in pricing may also struggle at a test which proves time and again that distance is a huge asset here. With the changes to the course and wind in play, that may be even more of a factor at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open.

Alex Smalley

Smalley is another golfer who shares the trifecta of driving distance, driving accuracy, and approach play. Those key ball striking attributes will be in hot demand on a stern test such as Torrey Pines. In the key approach distances, Smalley ranked 36th from 175-200 yards and 19th from 200+ yards in 2022.

Of the rounds where we had strokes gained data last week, Smalley averaged +3.41 SG: APP per round to lead the field. Whether he can get the putter rolling is always the question with Smalley. But, I am happy to take that risk given he has previously gained on Poa Annua greens. He also tees off in the first group on Thursday morning on the easier North Course, hopefully avoiding the worst of the weather.

Brendan Steele

Brendan Steele shares some similarity of that trifecta with Smalley. He ranked 12th from 175-200 yards and 79th from 200+ yards in 2022. He also arrives here having gained +2.78 SG: APP per round to be 2nd in the field for that metric at The American Express. And he consistently gains on the field for driving distance and accuracy.

Steele, much like last year’s winner Luke List, profiles as a golfer with some of the best ball-striking on tour and perhaps the worst putting. What does give me confidence here is he has a surprisingly excellent history putting at Torrey Pines. He has gained strokes putting in 8/11 appearances here, and one of the occasions he lost putting he lost just -0.15 strokes per round to basically be at field average.

That is a big anomaly, but one with enough data to be actionable. He does find himself on the South Course for the Thursday, but the metrics are just too good to ignore. We will need to hope he goes low at North Course day one and then holds on in the winds from there.

Beau Hossler

Beau Hossler, much like Montgomery, featured in our analysis last week and did enough to justify us continuing to follow him again. Along with elite driving distance, Hossler possess excellent putting and around the green stats. That could come in handy at a tournament where missing greens will be likely in the winds on offer this week.

Hossler sat 3rd last week after 2nd round last week before fading over the weekend. That was for the two rounds on the Pete Dye course, which was the course I would have been most worried about for him in that rotation. Torrey Pines has a much lower number of fairways hit, which plays in Hossler’s favour as he can gain an advantage with his driving distance.

Jhonattan Vegas – Your 2023 Farmers Insurance Open Best Value

Jhonattan Vegas ranks as the best value on the board for me this week. The American Express was his first professional appearance since planned surgery, so shaking off some of the rust was always going to be a given. He shot a +1 in the 1st round to effectively take himself out of contention. He followed up with a 6-under round on the tougher Pete Dye setup and gained +2.09 SG: APP followed by a 3-under 3rd round.

He returns to a course where he finished 3rd on debut and his 4th ever PGA Tour start. He has since added an 11th and 18th. An 8th at Quail Hollow adds some other nice corresponding form. Vegas gains majority of his strokes on approach at over 150+ yards and gains on both driving distance and approach often. He also has a good history putting at this course, enough to suggest he is mispriced given his time away from the game.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship — Adrian Meronk can secure a 3rd DP World Tour victory in Abu Dhabi

DP World Tour is back baby! After an epic 2022, the DP World Tour starts off with a bang at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. This is a Rolex Series event, one of just 5 such events in the year, which consists of some of the biggest tournaments on the calendar. That means inflated prize pools, additional ranking points, and a star-studded field from all over the globe.

We hit a massive 16 outright winners in 2022 and returned an ROI of +24% for the DP World Tour. Rating above a 20% ROI places our tips within the best tipsters on the market. The DP World Tour continues to offer an amazing value from both a betting and DFS stand-point.

The PGA Tour is becoming extremely saturated in terms of content with sharper players in DFS and keen eyes of bookmakers ensuring markets are tight. The DP World Tour still has plenty of softer spots and represents some of the best value available in golf. Let’s get into it!

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Course Analysis and Comp Courses

This will be the second year at Yas Links. This is worth noting, as prior course form before 2022 can be discounted. Last week’s Hero Cup tournament was also at former host Abu Dhabi GC. However, having some links to prior Middle East form is never a bad thing, as it is important to have comfort on these unique sturdier grass types and sandy soils.

Yas Links is a Kyle Phillips design. Although not sharing all the hallmarks of a true links course, the general concept and style of play is there. Ultra exposed to the elements with no protection from trees, tussock grass with uneven edges on bunkers, and undulating fairways and greens greet players this week.

It is worth noting that the 2nd round of last year’s tournament featured extremely high winds. It is well worth deep-diving (this is @deepdivegolf of course) a few of your favourite players performances at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship last year. If their performance was somewhat hindered following a bad 2nd round but they played well otherwise, that is worthy of some attention this week.

Comp Courses

There is very good correlation between other Kyle Phillips designed courses and the leaderboard from last year. This architect was involved in the remodelling of the famous Valderrama amongst an impressive portfolio of elite course design.

Most notably, the Qatar Masters is another Middle Eastern links-style course designed by Kyle Phillips. It should be a key guide entering this week. Kingsbarns, part of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, is another Phillips design. This tournament is also simply a great indicator of links form.

Bernadus, host of the Dutch Open, also displays strong links here (pun intended). This is another atypical course which has links style features although not in your traditional setting. Verdura GC presents another exposed links coastal course by Kyle Phillips. Finally, The Grove was host of the 2016 British Masters.

General links courses you can use for reference include Himmerland, Hillside Golf Club, and the Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews. Emirates GC provides another high profile Rolex series event, with a Middle East course just an hour away played at the same time of year.

Weather

There does look to be a tangible weather edge in play this week. The Middle East coastal courses suffer from very predictable onshore breeze, which arrives off the Persian Gulf nearly every afternoon around 2pm. This is something I am well aware of, having lived in Dubai for 8 years. Playing golf, I would often find myself struggling into the wind in the afternoon.

This week, Thursday actually looks to be windy all day. If anything, the wind looks to settle a little as the day goes on. Friday morning present some of the best conditions for the week before the consistent onshore breeze arrives in the afternoon. At such an exposed course like Yas Links, this can make a huge difference to the course’s scoring. As such, I am playing a Thursday PM/Friday AM stack almost exclusively.

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Adrian Meronk
2.5pts E/W $34.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Eddie Pepperell
1pt E/W $76.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Alexander Bjork
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.33

Justin Harding
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Richard Mansell
1pt E/W $81.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Ewen Ferguson
1pt E/W $91.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

Maximillian Kieffer
1pt E/W $111.00 (8 places, 1.5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.50

Golfer Profiles

Adrian Meronk – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Favourite

Of those at the top of the board, several own legitimate claims to this title. Both Hatton and Noren possess the best chances to my eye. However, at odds of 11/1 and 18/1 it is hard to see any real value within those numbers. Ryan Fox always has to be in consideration, and even more so that his Alfred Dunhill Links Championship victory included a round at Kingsbarns.

So we end up just outside the top of the card with Adrian Meronk. Meronk finally had his breakthrough year in 2022. He won his debut DP World Tour title at the prestigious Irish Open. He then solidified the year by winning the Australian Open on a links style course played in the Melbourne sand-belt. Although a weaker field, he defeated Min Woo Lee, Lucas Herbert, and Adam Scott enroute to victory.

Meronk was well in contention at the 2022 Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship before a mysterious WD. It has never been revealed the exact reason for the withdrawal, but he finished 4th the next week in Dubai so there is speculation this was COVID related. The strokes gained data indicates he was gaining across the board and he was sitting at -4, with eventual winning total being -10. An opening round containing 7 birdies is particularly eye catching.

https://twitter.com/AdrianMeronk/status/1614898124832604160?s=20&t=KpYGJm8wwWbBgzbR6KjG6g

Meronk is a resident of Dubai and complimenting the 4th place Dubai Desert Classic finish was a 7th at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. Further, he was well in contention at the Kyle Phillips designed Qatar Masters and Dutch Open, where he finished 3rd in both.

It is hard to see any presenting stronger credentials than Meronk, so he presents great value at the 33/1 on offer here.

Eddie Pepperell

I have grown slowly on Pepperell this week. However, the more I have looked at his claims the more I like the 75/1 on offer.

Pepperell has excellent form on Phillips designs. He is a winner at the Qatar Masters, alongside a 4th there in 2015. He also holds a 14th in his sole appearance at Bernadus Golf as well as at Verdura and has finished in the top 30 in 4 of his last 5 appearances at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Other links form is easy to come by. A 2nd and 11th at Hillside, a 4th and 18th at Himmerland, and a 2nd and 16th at the Torrance Course are the most notable. Sitting on the right side of the weather draw only adds more to his credentials as that edge solidifies.

Alexander Bjork – Your Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Best Value

Alexander Bjork, like Pepperell, possesses the same abilities of accurate driving and excellent putting. That is always a recipe for success on links courses, so it is little surprise that his links form is obvious.

Bjork finished 20th here last year. He has played the Qatar Masters 3 times in his early career, making the cut on all three occasions with a best finish of 19th. He also finished 7th at Bernardus last year, 6th and 18th at Himmerland, and 20th at Hillside.

The other factor is Bjork’s excellent performances at neighbouring Dubai. His runner-up finish at the season ending DP World Tour Championship is the most eye-catching, finishing alongside Matthew Fitzpatrick and behind Collin Morikawa. He also holds a 12th and 17th in his other two starts on that course and a 6th and 20th at the Dubai Desert Classic for good measure.

Justin Harding

Reading the incoming form of now LIV Golf players is basically impossible. We get no stroke gained data at those events, at tournaments that didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website when the tour first started.

What we rely on here for Harding is his prior and correlated form. Harding finished an admirable 25th here last year, an even par 2nd round in the high winds proving difficult to overcome. Harding is another Qatar Masters winner, champion there in 2019 alongside a 5th last year in his two appearances. A 9th in his sole appearance at Bernadus sits alongside an impressive record at the Dubai Desert Classic of 7-37-27-4.

I’m also conscious these LIV golfers need to take advantage of their rare opportunities to earn OWGR points. This is an elevated Rolex Series event and carries some decent ranking points. Given there is currently a temproary stay on their ban from the DP World Tour, taking advantage of weeks such as this is vital for players like Harding.

Richard Mansell

Mansell began his 2nd year on the DP World Tour in fine fashion, with his first 3 top 5s on the main European tour. A record of 9th and 6th playing Bernardus is a good indication leading into this week.

Additionally, Mansell was leader throughout much of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in 2022. In that title chase, he opened with a 66 at the Kyle Phillips designed Kingsbarns which included 7 birdies and just one bogey. He eventually finished 7th following a poor final round at St Andrews.

He will be better for that experience in a season that saw him improve greatly throughout the year. A maiden DP World Tour victory is certainly possible in 2023, and he possesses the upside to see that victory occur at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship this week.

Ewen Ferguson

It was an outstanding display from Ewen Ferguson in 2022. Having advanced through the Challenge Tour in 2019 to earn his card, he unfortunately lost this after an indifferent 2020. He earned his DP World Tour card back immediately in a 2021 season where he finished in the Top 5 in 23% of his starts. This included a start on the main tour at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where he finished 17th.

Having returned to the Tour proper, he proceeded to secure his maiden victory. Of course, this was at the 2022 Qatar Masters. That was a windy tournament on Sunday with another of our tips Adrian Meronk well in contention. He also managed a 2nd at the links course at Himmerland for good measure. Ferguson then went on to secure his 2nd victory shortly thereafter, again on a links style course in Ireland at the ISPS Handa World Invitiational.

Another great season beckons for Ferguson, and I expect to see him contend at some of these Rolex Series events as a potential future Ryder Cup player.

Maximillian Kieffer

Kieffer represents a positive EV bet this week following securing his maiden victory in 2022. Kieffer has long possessed the ball-striking required to win, but he has never met this with a spike putting week at the same event his irons are firing. He finally achieved this at the 2022 Czech Masters, in a very windy tournament.

Much like Mansell, Kieffer shot a 66 at Kingsbarns last year with 7 birdies and a sole bogey on the card. He has a 14th at the Qatar Masters as well as a 14th and 15th at Bernardus. All are Kyle Phillips designed.

A record in Abu Dhabi of 16-12-MC-22 were all at the other Abu Dhabi course, but at least are complimentary to being comfortable in the area. He also managed a 17th at the Dubai Desert Classic in his debut DP World Tour season, has a 17th at the AVIV Dubai Championship, and a 9th in 2022 at the Ras Al Khaimah Classic just an hour drive away.

Kieffer finished the season strong with an 8th in the star-studded Nedbank Golf Challenge and an 11th in Dubai at the season ending DP World Tour Championship. That should fill him with confidence arriving here this week and places him as one of the best value on the board this week.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2023 American Express Preview: All you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Taylor Montgomery can secure his maiden PGA Tour victory at the 2023 American Express golf tournament this week

What a start to 2023 we have had! Starting the Sentry Tournament of Champions, we tipped winner Rahm in-play as well as a top 3 finish from Max Homa. We certainly carried on that hot streak at the Sony Open! Long may that continue this week at the 2023 American Express.

Our Sony Open best value play was David Lipsky, who finished 4th, tipped at 150/1 and just 3% owned for DFS purposes. Lipsky was a great chance to win, leading the tournament throughout the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds. Andrew Putnam also finished 4th with an outstanding putting performance.

Across these tournaments, that means we are already +65.7 points and have an ROI of 131.4%! Will we finish at that figure by the end of the year? No. Being over 20% ROI across both tours last season already places our picks within the top echelon of the best tipsters on the market. However, it is certainly a lovely figure to read!

Especially considering how difficult these first few events of the year can be, with little to indicate what golfers may have improved (or regressed) over the past two months. And it doesn’t get any easier this week as course rotation season and the 2023 American Express golf tournament, which has built a reputation for throwing up some of the longest odds for winners in previous seasons. Let’s get into it.

2023 American Express Course Analysis and Comp Courses

The 2023 American Express utilises a three course rotation. La Quinta, Nicklaus Stadium Course, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course have featured has hosts at this tournament since 2016. One round is played at each course, before a 54 hole cut is made and a final round played at the Pete Dye course.

La Quinta presents as the easiest test of the three. Driving distance is not as much a factor here as the other two courses. That is mainly due to the ridiculously short nature of a few of these holes. There are just two par 4s over 450 yards, sitting at a mediocre 454 and 469 yards. The four par 5s are all under 547 yards and should be reachable in two for the vast majority of the field. Essentially, expect low scoring and a wedge then putt birdie-fest.

Driving distance does become a factor at the other two courses for the 2023 American Express. With three rounds played across these courses, this is worthy of consideration. Certainly, we shouldn’t expect golfers to be ripping driver on every hole. But, having access to extra distance is certainly beneficial in spots this week. This is especially true on the par 5s, which are vital for scoring, and some drivable par 4s.

Around the green play will also become a factor at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. Most notably, and with greatest hilarity, on the 18th hole bunker:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-TU5SDd3OI

Key factors to consider at the 2023 American Express

The ideal combination for golfers is driving distance, approach play with wedges or long irons for the par 5s, and putting. I’m not factoring in SG: ATG in any great amounts, but it is a nice addition to have

Course history can be discounted slightly this week. Of course, prior course history is always nice to have. It is worth noting, though, that this tournament has shown as one of the lowest correlations between prior course form as a predictive factor for success. Therefore, if a golfer has missed a few cuts here, I’m not too disturbed in what is an extremely volatile tournament.

What does warrant some consideration is that this is a Pro-Am for the first three rounds. Some golfers do just inherently struggle at these events, which result in slower pace of play due to being paired with amateurs. It is worth considering prior performance at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and Farmers Insurance Open for the 2023 American Express. This combines both the Pro-Am element, but are also two other tournaments in the California region. Further, they also have Bermuda overseeded with Poa Annua on their greens so should be a reasonable guide for potential putting performance.

Weather

There is certainly a chance of a weather edge developing at a tournament such as this. However, actually determining who will benefit is very difficult.

All golfers will tee off within a two hour window across the three courses on offer. Most likely this would be that playing one a particular course on a particular day may yield an advantage.

Thursday morning looks the calmest conditions of the week and Friday looks to have the highest winds of the first three days. My best guess would be starting on La Quinta is preferable. This should allow golfers to take advantage of the easiest course. It also has the added benefit of meaning golfers will play the Pete Dye Stadium Course twice in a row, on both Saturday and final round Sunday.

My second favourite would be facing the sterner test of the Pete Dye Stadium Course in the calm Thursday conditions. This would then see the easiest course La Quinta on the Friday.

For those starting on the Nicklaus Stadium Course Thursday, they would then end up on the toughest Pete Dye Stadium Course on Friday. This would be my least favoured rotation of the three. Again, this is mostly speculation and we will only know the true answer after the conclusion of the tournament.

2023 American Express tee-times can be found here: https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/the-american-express/tee-times.html

2023 American Express Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Taylor Montgomery
2.5pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Aaron Wise
2pts E/W $46.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Jason Day
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.00

Wyndham Clark
1pt E/W $71.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $4.50

Dean Burmester
1pt E/W $111.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.25

Beau Hossler
0.5pt E/W $251.00 (8 places, 1.5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $7.50

Golfer Profiles

Taylor Montgomery – Your 2023 American Express favourite

In his rookie season, Taylor Montgomery has announced himself in a big way. In 8 starts, Montgomery has already finished in the top 15 on 7 occasions.

This success has come on a huge variety of courses and that should hold him in excellent stead for the course rotation this week. Whether the course be long, short, wide, or narrow: Taylor Montgomery has found a way to get to the top end of the leaderboard.

We should have probably predicted such a preeminent arrival given his consistency on the Korn Ferry Tour. Since January 2022, Montgomery has played 26 professional tournaments and finished in the top 15 in 20 of them. He actually began that run at a PGA Tour event. Montgomery received a sponsor exemption for the Farmers Insurance Open and duly finished 11th. It was his second ever PGA Tour start.

Another California based Pro-Am, being held at a similar time of year, and having the same greens should prove useful as a guide this week. A 3rd at the Fortinet Championship, played at Silverado Resort & Spa in the Napa Valley, also doesn’t hurt. Having already found his feet on tour immediately, he arrives at a desert course where this UNLV product and Nevada native should find instant comfort.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-sJXs53JHw

Montgomery possess plenty of strength to attack those par 5s and drivable par 4s. At the Farmers, he was reaching the 621 yard par 5 in two and he has had another year gaining distance.

For a golfer possessing that power, he has also established himself as a golfer with a remarkable short-game. He ranks as the 2nd in this field for SG: Putting over the last 6 months and is handy around the greens to boot. That combination will hopefully again see him in contention come Sunday.

Aaron Wise

The well-rounded game of Aaron Wise should suit at the 2023 American Express, in an area just an hour away from where he first learned the game.

Raised in neighbouring Riverside CA, it is unlikely Wise would have dreamed he would be playing so close to home ranked as the 35th best golfer in the world. Everything in Wise’s 2022 season suggests he could finish much higher than that rank by year end.

It seems the biggest factor putting people off Wise this week is that he has missed three cuts here. However, we know that prior course form is not a great factor at this event.

And it is hard to suggest that Wise has an absolute distaste for this setup. Wise finished 34th here on debut, before joining the Korn Ferry Tour, and followed up with a 17th the year after. Further, he holds a 15th at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and finishes of a 2nd, 18th, and 9th at Quail Hollow which should have some correlation to two of the three courses here.

Wise’s meteoric rise comes off tangible improvements both with his approach play as well as the putter. He possess plenty of distance off the tee and sits within the top 15 in this field for both SG: ATG and SG: PUTT over the last three months. In a year where he possesses an outside touch of making a Ryder Cup debut, a strong start to the season at the 2023 American Express would be a great starting point.

Jason Day

Towards the end of the 2022 season, Jason Day really began to show signs of resurgence. The fall was great from the lofty heights of World Number 1 in 2017 to a lowly 175th in September 2022.

That was tempered somewhat by two victories in 2018. Notably, they came at Quail Hollow and a 2nd time winning the Farmers Insurance Open, an event he also holds 5 Top 20s. He has also finished 11th or better in 8 of his last 10 appearances at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, so he should have no trouble with the rotational Pro-Am format.

All of those performances should be good indicators here, at an event he has played just once. That appearance was last year and saw a made cut, a 75 in his 2nd round preventing him finishing any higher up on a condensed leaderboard.

What that tournament did provide were the first inklings that his game may be beginning to return. He finished 3rd at the Farmers the very next week. Throughout the year, his approach play began to return in what is one of the best indicators for Day’s performances.

He now arrives at the 2023 American Express sitting 17th for SG: Total and 6th for SG: APP over the last 6 months. Included in those stats is an 8th place at the Shriners Children’s Open on another desert resort course. It is inevitable he will end up in contention again soon should this upward trajectory continue, and it may well be this week.

Wyndham Clark

Wyndham Clark is another golf I have earmarked for a potentially big year in 2023. Based on SG metrics, Data Golf currently rank Clark as 63rd in the world versus a current OWGR of 160th. That is always an indicator of a player “overdue” for a strong performance.

Clark’s aggression and distance are excellent assets to have in the arsenal. He has also displayed the ability to show restraint when needed. This includes in his most recent sighting when 10th at the RSM Classic. The fact this is then matched with proven ability both ATG and with the putter and some much improved iron play towards the end of 2022 shows promising signs.

Given that, it is little surprise that Clark achieved his first ever PGA Tour Top 20 here in 2019. He has since followed that up with a 13th in last year’s iteration. Arriving here as a golfer on the improve, I hold high hopes for his chances this week.

Dean Burmester

Dean Burmester presents great value this week at triple figure odds, when fair pricing would have him more in the 95/1 range.

2022 was a big year for Burmy. He finished 10th at the Scottish Open and 11th at the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews, two of the strongest fields of the year. Burmester then earnt his PGA Tour card, finishing in the top 5 in 2 of the 3 Korn Ferry Tour playoff events. He then announced himself on the PGA Tour by immediately finishing 4th.

The 56th ranked golfer in the world has extreme power off the tee. He combines that with excellent touch around the greens and the ability to spike with both his irons and putter. He arrives here ranking 28th SG: Total, 27th SG: OTT, and 2nd for SG: ATG. His result this week will come down to his iron play continuing to improve and getting hot with the putter. It’s something he has managed to do previously in 9 professional victories of his career thus far.

Beau Hossler – Your 2023 American Express best value

Raised in Orange County CA, Beau Hossler presents as the best value on the board this week.

Hossler had a 3rd at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has finished 9th at the Farmers in 2020. He did manage to finish 20th in this tournament in 2018 during his rookie PGA Tour season. Since then, he has struggled to match all elements of his game at the right time here. He has gained as many as 8 strokes putting and 10 strokes on approach on this course.

That volatility can be somewhat expected at an event coming directly after the Christmas break played across multiple courses. The simple fact that he has shown he can spike with both is what interests me here.

He arrives here ranking 1st for SG: Putt over the last 3 months and 7th in that same metric over 12 months. Ranking 44th for SG: ATG could also prove an asset on the Pete Dye Stadium Course rounds. Those abilities, alongside his excellent driving distance, is a perfect combination for low scoring. Should we marry them all together, he could surprise a few with a ceiling performance at the 2023 American Express.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2023 Sony Open Preview: Everything you need to know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips Russell Henley — Russell Henley can secure another victory at the 2023 Sony Open

Ladies and gentlemen, we are back in Hawaii for the second week of the PGA Tour season for 2023 and the first full field event for the year! Bring back the cut sweat and deep-dives! This is your 2023 Sony Open Preview.

A great start to the year for us at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. We tipped the winner Jon Rahm live in-play in the WinDaily Discord. Rahm was standing in the fairway on the par 5 15th with just 157 yards in for his second shot. For Rahm, that is just a pitching wedge and was a great opportunity for a birdie if not an eagle. Morikawa meanwhile had found the bunker on 14. He had also seen his once 9 shot lead crumble into just 3 shots. We saw value at the $9.50 on offer. Rahm indeed made eagle, Morikawa made birdie, and we cash 5 units @ $9.50.

We also cash in a Top 5 on Max Homa with 1 unit @ $7.60. Tipped at 33/1 pre-tournament, Homa made a sluggish start. Two rounds of 3-under 70 saw him languishing in the bottom third of the field. However, a 10-under 63 followed by a 7-under 66 saw him jump into 3rd place.

This week, the tour hops over to Honolulu for the Sony Open. This historic event has attracted a reasonably strong field headlined by Sungjae I’m, Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth, and rising prodigy Tom Kim. Let’s get into it!

2023 Sony Open Course Analysis

Waialae Country Club plays host this week in a substantially different test to what golfers faced last week. Whereas Planatation presented wide open fairways with non-existent rough, Waialae presents a narrow and tricky course.

Multiple doglegs and narrow fairways and overhanging trees which must be avoided to open up access to the greens. It should come as no surprise that driving accuracy is at a premium. In fact, this course ranks within the top 5 where driving accuracy is a predictive factor.

It is also worth noting that the rough has been allowed to grow out to 3 inches from just 2.25 inches last year. That may not sound overly imposing but bear in mind we are dealing with Bermuda grass here. Bermuda rough can really grab onto the club face as well as produce flyer lies. In fact, 3 inches is the longest the tour allows Bermuda rough. Only two other tournaments last year had 3-inch Bermuda rough, the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. You want to put even more emphasis on driving accuracy this week compared to previous iterations of the tournament.

Alongside driving accuracy, SG: ATG is a far more predictive factor than at other courses. Precisely why this may be is somewhat a mystery. Most likely is that Hawaiian tradewinds are one of the main defences to this course. The other being that when puns are tucked away on these relatively large greens getting up and down becomes a premium.

Comparison Courses and 2023 Sony Open Course Form

We are somewhat fortunate this week. It can be really tricky to predict what golfers are playing well after the New Year break. Many have not played competitively since the RSM Classic some 55 days ago.

To our benefit, Waialae has the 2nd highest correlation between prior performance and future success. The only course more correlated is Augusta National. This is perhaps highlighted best by the fact that in 2013 Russell Henley was the first debutant to win this event since its inception in 1965. You want to heavily consider prior form at this course over any recent performances.

There are also heavy correlations between El Cameleon and Waialae Country Club. In 15 iterations of the Mayakoba Championship, 6 have also won the Sony Open. Henley was the most recent to affirm this link. He completed this double with his recent victory in November complimenting the aforementioned win here in 2013. Further, he was runner-up when just missing out to Matsuyama in a play-off here last year.

Other courses with correlation are the RBC Heritage and Sea Island Golf Club. Both are coastal course with wind exposure. They are also positional golf courses, where finding the short grass is further emphasised with wanting to find the correct side of the fairway. There are also tentative links with Colonial Country Club.

Weather for the 2023 Sony Open

A slight advantage looks to have developed for those playing Thursday PM/Friday AM this week.

High winds were experienced on course on Wednesday. Thursday morning now looks likely to suffer from those high winds. This is looking to settle from 1pm onwards, with Friday morning also looking calmer than Friday afternoon.

I have the current advantage at approximately 0.5 strokes on average. As such, this should not be the sole factor in your decision making. However, if you’re struggling to decide between two golfers, you should favour the golfer teeing it up Thursday afternoon.

2023 Sony Open Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Russell Henley

2.5pts E/W $26.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds)

Andrew Putnam

1pt E/W $51.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.30

Denny McCarthy

1pt E/W $61.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $3.60

Aaron Rai

1pt E/W $101.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $5.00

David Lipsky

1pt E/W $151.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pts Top 20 $6.00

David Lingmerth

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
2pts Top 40 $3.00

Zac Blair

0.5pts E/W $191.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 40 $3.60

Kazuki Higa

0.5pts E/W $301.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
1pt Top 20 $7.00
4pts Top 40 $3.40

Golfer Profiles

Russell Henley – Your 2023 Sony Open favourite

Given the above, it should be no surprise that Henley headlines our tips. Henley has extremely strong links to Waialae. Prior course form including a win and a somewhat disappointing runner-up finish in the 2022 playoff. The November 6th victory should fill him with confidence arriving at a course that he has previously played so well at.

I’m not a huge fan of trends, but for what it is worth 5 of the last 6 winners of this event have competed the week prior at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. This is somewhat unsurprising, has by its own definition the Sentry comprises some of the best players on tour. More noteworthy for me was that Henley finished in the Top 5 for SG: APP last week and 3rd for Driving Accuracy. That ball-striking in a high-class field is too difficult to ignore.

You can read more of Henley’s love for Waialae in this recent interview here.

As always with Henley, the result will come down to his putter. Anything at field average or better should see him towards the top of the leaderboard for the 2023 Sony Open.

Andrew Putnam

Putnam enjoyed a solid finish to 2022. He followed up of 5th and 23rd in the first two Fed Ex Cup Playoff events with a 12th in Las Vegas and a 2nd in a high quality ZOZO Championship field (an event that last year’s Sony Open winner Matsuyama won in the 2022 season).

Putnam holds a 2nd here from 2019, so ticks the prior course form box. He arrives here a much-improved golfer to 3 years ago.

Denny McCarthy

Having opened at odds of 45/1, Denny has drifted to 60/1. Seemingly, this is only due to money flowing to players like Harman, Poston, and Kuchar near him in the market.

The highly regarded putter is also very accurate off the tee. A recent 6th place at the Bermuda Championship hints at correlated tropical and exposed course form. He holds a 15th at the Mayakoba last year, a 10th and 8th at the RSM Classic, and 13th at the RBC Heritage.

Denny’s approach game has been his weakest aspect since joining the PGA Tour in 2018. 2022 was his first year where his SG: APP was at PGA Tour average. His start to 2023 has seen him gain on approach across his first 7 events and suggests an improving golfer that may go well at the 2023 Sony Open.

Aaron Rai

The talented Englishman has yet to make much of a mark since hopping the ditch to join the PGA Tour. Rai began his debut DP World Tour season with two victories and nine Top 20 finishes. He followed this up with further wins in 2019 and 2020. You would have to think he would be nearing double digit wins had he remained on the easier DP World Tour. However, with a Top 10 finish on the PGA Tour often surpassing the winner’s prize in European events, you can understand the decision.

Rai’s game does continue to show signs of improvement. He has been above PGA Tour average for SG: APP for the last three seasons. Most importantly, he is now also gaining with the putter and in SG: ATG. He has gained in Driving Accuracy on the Tour average at a rate of double digits at most seasons he has played.

A 15th at Mayakoba in 2022 and a 16th at the RSM Classic are further links to here. A 2022 missed cut at his sole appearance here can be somewhat forgiven by the fact it is so hard to tell where a player’s game is at following the off-season. The credentials and profile are there, and at triple figure odds present value for a golfer who should be priced at 80/1 or shorter.

David Lipsky – Your 2023 Sony Open best value

Lipsky presents as one of the best values on the board in my models, currently available at 150/1 when his fair pricing should be in the realm of just 100/1.

A 2022 missed cut can again be somewhat forgiven considering it was his 6th missed cut in a row during a terrible stretch of form. He has been much improved of late with a 22nd at Houston Open and a Top 10 finish at the Mayakoba in November. A 6th at the Mexico Open and 7th at the Corales Puntacana further highlight positive tropical course form.

Lipsky gains on driving accuracy, approach, and ATG in an ideal recipe for this venue. His performance, much like Henley, will come down to his performance with the putter this week.

David Lingmerth

Lingmerth makes his first appearance here since 2017, at a course he finished 13th in 2016. He risked losing his tour card towards the end of last year, where a comprehensive victory in the Korn Ferry Tour playoff event could well stoke the fire.

A 5th at Colonial provides an indication heading into the Sony Open. Further, a fantastic 8th place at the Mayakoba in November and a 10th at the RSM Classic confirm an obvious choice to tee it up this week. The afternoon tee-time Thursday is a further positive for a golfer available at 200/1.

Zac Blair

Having opened at a extremely overpriced 300/1, Blair continues to present value as an outside chance at the 200/1 still on offer.

Blair suffered a long-time away from the game with an injury in 2020. He resumed on the Korn Ferry Tour in July last year, and immediately arrived back with 5 consecutive top 35 finishes and a 12th at the Fortinet Championship.

Prior to the injury, Blair had a 14th at Mayakoba in 2020, 10th in 2016, and 23rd in 2015. He also holds a 3rd and 6th placed finish around Waialae in 2015 and 2016. Now back to full health, he is worth a flyer at long odds for what would be an emotional comeback victory.

Kazuki Higa

Finally, we wind up our picks with the up-and-coming Japanese star Kazuki Higa. Higa won a notable four times on the Japan Golf Tour in 2022. He already proved last year he can jump across to the higher tours, when he played the BMW International Open and immediately finished 10th.

The most recent of those four victories was also the most impressive. The Dunlop Phoenix Tournament always attracts a talented international field. When winning the 2022 event, Higa defeated some big names. That included this week’s favourite Tom Kim, LIV Golf rumoured recruit Mito Pereira, World Ranked top 50 Scott Vincent, Aaron Wise, and Corey Conners.

Higa looks destined to advance to the PGA Tour or DP World Tour shortly. A high finish this week would go a long way to accelerating that progression and at 300/1 he is well worth consideration.

For an article with insights into my golf analysis process, check this link here: https://windailysports.com/golf-betting-101/

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

Golf Betting 101: How To Pick More Winning Golfers

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting — Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WinDailySports

Make sure you SUBSCRIBE and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

This is the only show where the audience draft a team live to go against the experts! It is essential viewing to hear our thoughts and favourite plays, as well as the iconic first-round leader picks and Spencer’s famous super in-depth course breakdowns.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

https://discord.com/invite/windaily

Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy

Meteorology

When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!

Agronomy

You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.

Summary

There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

If you’ve made it this far through the article, are you curious about giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

Access via this special promo link here: https://windailysports.com/sign-up/deep-dive-golf/?ref=31

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA Sports Betting

Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Your Essential Guide to PGA Daily Fantasy Golf

Golf season is back baby! Whether you are a Golf DFS rookie or a seasoned veteran just looking for that little extra edge; welcome. These are our Golf DFS Top 5 Tips to make this your winning season.

2022 was a year full of surprises. From all the LIV Golf drama to some new stars emerging. The 2023 golf season promises to be one of the best yet! We expect to see a large amount of golf interest this year.

With the majority of tournaments spanning 4 days, Golf DFS gives you some of the best value for your entertainment. And there remains a massive opportunity in golf DFS right now!

It is fair to say that NFL, MLB, and NBA markets have reached saturation. Players are the most educated they have ever been, resources and data are readily available, and the markets are sharp. Finding an edge over your competition is extremely difficult. Although golf DFS is heading in that direction, there remains gaps.

And that is where YOU can take advantage.

What makes Golf DFS so difficult?

Navigating your first season of Golf DFS can be confusing!

With fields often surpassing 140+ golfers, the majority of DFS players are simply not going to put the time and effort in required doing a full in-depth analysis of all possible options.

There is a new course every week, which will change the best golfer profile to look for in your players.

It is also a sport heavily affected by weather, perhaps more so than in any other sport.

And with somewhat complicated analytics with data that can be difficult to find, that represents opportunity. Hence, we have given you our Golf DFS Top 5 Tips to get you started!

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

WinDaily Sports YouTube Channel & PGA Draftcast

https://www.youtube.com/@WinDailySports

Make sure you are SUBSCRIBED and have the NOTIFICATION BELL turned on for our YouTube channel! We run our popular PGA Draftcast show for every tournament at 9pm EST Tuesdays prior to the tournament.

WinDaily Sports Discord Channel

https://discord.com/invite/windaily

Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and pivots to plays to help you craft the perfect line-up every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf DFS Website Articles

https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-golf/

Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth analysis and picks for the tournament. I particularly see edges in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles can be found on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Golf DFS Top 5 Tips

Tip 1: Making the Cut is Key in Golf DFS

If you are new to golf, most tournaments will have a cut after the 2nd round in which roughly half the field will take no further part in the tournament. Obviously, you want as many of your players to be making the cut to ensure you are making the most of your point scoring potential.

For cash games and smaller GPP contests, you will want to look for safer players who are more likely to make the cut. You are much better placed to have majority of your players that play all 4 rounds and finish in the middle of the pack than 2 players finish in the top ten but the rest miss the cut entirely.

For large GPP tournaments, you want to look for upside. Looking for players who are a little more volatile may not be a bad thing, especially with heavy prize weightings to the top spots in the tournament. This is where Steven’s fantastic projections come into play, allowing you to find positions to leverage your line-up against the rest of the pack. You will want to look for players likely to make the cut, but also with more upside to finish towards the top of the leaderboard.

Tip 2: Compare Bookmaker Odds to Golf DFS Pricing

Bookmakers are in the business of analysing and projecting likely outcomes of tournaments. It is their job to reduce risk and provide as accurate as possible prediction of who has the most win equity any given week. Chances are, if you are a casual player then they are absolutely doing far more in-depth analysis than you. Use this to your advantage.

You can often find situations where a bookmaker may have a golfer priced as a much better chance to win a tournament than his DFS pricing suggests. For example, we recently identified an opportunity where a regular PGA Tour golfer qualified for entry into a DP World Tour event in Monday qualifying. Typically, these golfers are priced cheaply having needed to win a qualifying tournament to gain entry. As the PGA Tour is typically a lot stronger than DP World Tour fields, the golfer was priced in the top 30 most likely to win the tournament. However, DFS markets priced him as a typical Monday qualifier at just $6,700 and in the bottom 20% in the field. He finished 13th in the tournament and provided huge leverage for your line-up.

The above is an extreme example but provides an illustration of the potential edge that can be gained in looking at odds and comparing to DFS markets. You want to identify situations where there is a significant difference between a bookmakers implied win probability and DFS pricing.

Tip 3: Meteorology and Agronomy

First, check the weather! It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few DFS players will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Tee-times are typically grouped between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time.

If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

I use a variety of different resources to provide the best weather forecasting possible in the lead-up to a tournament. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord in the 24 hours prior to tournament start for the most accurate information available and to give yourself an edge!

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate than other options on the market. We use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can.

Tip 4: Course Analysis, Course Form, and Incoming Form

Each week, the PGA Tour and DP World Tour will move to a different location and hence a different course. Unlike in any other sport, where the field of play remains generally the same, golf courses by their very nature are designed to be completely different to others. You won’t want to play the exact same golfers every single week.

Course Analysis

Some courses will favour a “bomb and gouge” approach. Typically, they will feature wide open fairways with little penalty for straying too wide. This will favour longer drivers, who can then give themselves a shorter (and easier) 2nd shot given their extra distance off the tee.

Other trickier courses with tight fairways and smaller greens will favour a more accurate player who will keep the ball in play and avoid dropped shots. To maximise your golf DFS score, a completely different golfer profile may be required from one week to the next.

Firmer courses will often favour a player with a higher ball flight. They can land the ball softly on the green to allow a shorter putt. Tree-lined fairways to protect from the wind can add to this advantage. Exposed courses may favour players with a lower ball flight that can keep their shot low and away from the higher winds.

Links courses (typically, but not exclusively, found in the UK & Ireland) offer another challenge on their own. These ultra-exposed coastal courses require a unique set of skills. These undulating courses often experience high weather variance, have firmer greens with little rough surrounding, and deep bunkers as protection. You do find a number of links-course specialist. They may present little incoming form but then perform extremely well when returning to a link course.

Course Form

Course form does matter. It may seem self-evident that a player who has played well on a certain course previously may do so again. Many courses have proven to have a high correlation between prior success as a predictive factor of future success.

However, this comes with a word of caution. Some courses display little correlation between prior course form and future success. This can be for a variety of reasons. For example, trickier courses with lots of penalty areas will provide volatility. Simple luck and the bounce of a ball can have a significant effect on outcomes. Low scoring and easier courses may mean that simply whoever putted best that week was able to finish higher on the leaderboard. The experts in the WinDaily team are here to help you identify when course form matters most.

Incoming Form and Golf DFS

Incoming form also plays a factor. If you can find a golf with excellent course form and who has played well recently, this is obviously beneficial. It will likely also come with a high priced golfer with plenty of ownership.

This also comes with many caveats. Many golf DFS players will fall victim to recency bias. They will believe how a player played last week is a sure-fire method to predict how they will play this week. Yet, the next tournament may be played on a completely different style of course. Also, the manner of scoring matters, which is where strokes gained data comes into play.

Tip 5: Using Stokes Gained Metrics

I will provide a more detailed analysis of Strokes Gained data in my Golf Betting Tips & Advice article. But, in short, Strokes Gained is the start of a change in the statistical analysis of golf akin to that which changed the face of baseball.

Previously, using golf DFS stats were somewhat archaic and did not provide an accurate measure of future success. For example, take Greens in Regulation, which is a percentage of greens a golfer manages to hit compared to par and assuming two putts (i.e. a Par 3 in one approach shot, a Par 4 in two approach shots, and a Par 5 in 3 approach shots or less).

This provides a little less information than we may want. Two golfers sharing 70% Greens in Regulation may have hit the same number of greens. However, Golfer A was on average 20’ away from the pin. Golfer B was on average 35’ away from the pin. Obviously, Golfer A has shorter putts and had better approach play.

What is Strokes Gained?

Strokes gained data flips this narrative on its head. We can now accurately identify just how golfers achieved their given scores. Stokes gained provides a breakdown of how a golfer performed compared to the field and where precisely their advantage came from.

Let’s take a basic application of this concept with an example of a golfer who has a putt from 20’. A player in the field may take on average 1.5 putts to get the ball in the hole. The golfer makes the putt, and he has therefore gained +0.5 stokes putting compared to the field.

Below are the most used Strokes Gained metrics:

Strokes Gained Total (SG: TOT)

The total number of strokes gained compared to the field. This will perfectly resemble the leaderboard. E.g. a golfer shoots 65, field average was 70, their stokes gained total would be +5.00.

Strokes Gained Off The Tee (SG: OTT)

The total number of shots gained from all tee shots on par 4s and par 5s. This covers all shots made with drivers and woods (occasionally irons) off the tee.

Strokes Gained Approach (SG: APP)

The total number of strokes gained from all tee shots on par 3s and all shots further than 30 yards from the green on par 4s and par 5s. Essentially, all strokes gained from iron shots.

Strokes Gained Around The Green (SG: ATG)

The total number of strokes gained from all shots within 30 yards of the green without being on the green. Covers chips and bunker shots.

Strokes Gained Putting (SG: PUTT)

The total number of strokes gained for all shots on the greens.

Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG: T2G)

The total number of strokes gained to the field for all shots excluding putting. This can prove useful given that putting is the most volatile and unpredictable metric.

Strokes Gained Ball-Striking (SG: BS)

All strokes gained from both SG: OTT and SG: APP combined.

Using Strokes Gained for Golf DFS

Using the above analytics, we can use this to assist us in identifying golfers that fit a particular profile which may prove successful on any given course.

In general, statistics such as SG: OTT and SG: APP tend to be “stickier”. A golfer who has made improvement in the two ball-striking categories is more likely to be able to maintain those improvements.

This ties in with the above caution about incoming form. Say a golfer finished in the top 20 the prior week. However, he gained a huge number of his strokes compared to the field with the putter that week. We would not necessarily see this as a strong predictor of future success. Putting is volatile and very difficult to foresee when improvements may happen on any given week. This is not a hard and fast rule, as there are undoubtedly better putters than others. But we are here to assist you in identifying the difference.

Summary

Golf provides a hugely entertaining way to play DFS, providing great value for money once you’ve entered a contest. There are massive opportunities available for those who are willing to put the effort in. But, as you can see above, there are a huge number of factors which come in making these decisions.

With large fields to choose from, there are countless hours of research required with many possible combinations and choices to be made every week. It can be overwhelming when you start! We are here to help by doing the hard yards for you and make it easy.

If you’ve made it this far through the article, why not considering giving WinDaily a go? Join now with a no obligation 1-month free trial so you can test out the website and services available. If you decide to keep the product, it is the best value on the market at just $5.99 for access to ALL sports.

Access this promo link here: https://windailysports.com/sign-up/deep-dive-golf/?ref=31

Want another free article? Check out our “Golf Betting 101: How To Select More Winning Golfers” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

win golf DFS — Get that winning feeling from your golf DFS line-ups with WinDaily Sports!

2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

Hero World Challenge – Every Golfer Ranked

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The Hero World Challenge always provides an intriguing event to cover. On one hand, we have near on the top 20 players in the world all competing in the same event. Hopefully, this provides a tasty entrée of what is to come in 2023 where the newly elevated events promise to present frequent opportunities for the best players in the world to compete in the same week.

On the other, from a betting perspective the Hero World Challenge presents some qualms. Often, inefficiencies in betting markets occur further down the board in larger fields. Basically, correctly pricing who is the 30th most likely to win in the field becomes infinitely more difficult. That presents us opportunities. In a small field like this, the market looks fairly efficient with few holes and a decent bookmaker edge.

As such, I likely favour a lean towards DFS this week rather than betting markets. Further, I will also prefer head-to-head and cash game plays for DFS. Given the condensed field, you will need to select the optimal lineup to be taking out most tournaments and then likely sharing with multiple others in larger events. Also, do expect a volatile week overall. Particularly Friday will be subject to some extremely high winds where scoring will be very tough.

https://www.windy.com/25.012/-77.503?24.443,-77.503,8,m:emQadZY

I have taken the liberty, given this rare opportunity, to provide a short breakdown of every player in the field and give them an indicative rating out of 10 on my enthusiasm based on their current odds. Along with this, my standard suggested staking is provided. As always, I list every option I personally take myself for you.

Hero World Challenge – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

5pts E/W Tony Finau $10.00 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
2.5pts E/W Matthew Fitzpatrick $15.00 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
2.5pts E/W Tommy Fleetwood $26.00 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
5pts E/W Max Homa $19.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)

Player Profiles

Note: Ratings given are based on “value for money” not win probability i.e. how best do the current odds on offer best reflect the player’s actual win probability.

Jon Rahm 6.5/10

Quite possibly playing the best golf in the world right now. Arrives here as deserving favourite based not just on his incoming form but also a record of a win and 2nd in his two appearances here. Unfortunately, his odds are simply too short at $6.00 in this quality of field to justify backing. It is close, but I have fair odds for him at $8.00 and this makes it a losing play despite the obvious credentials. No qualms if you decide to lead him out as the frontrunner in your DFS lineups.

Scottie Scheffler 4/10

Has some how managed to scrounge a 9th and 3rd in his last two events despite consistently losing with the putter of late. That is a worry, especially at a event where winning scores have often been at -18 or less. His approach play remains elite, although that too is currently below his usual lofty long-term averages.

Tony Finau 9/10

Makes the betting card at $10.00 each-way with 4 places at 1/4 odds. Finau has been a completely different beast since securing 3 wins in the last 7 starts. The wins have, of course, been in fields with less quality fields than here and this is tougher. He has not lost strokes with the putter since June suggesting he is full of confidence. Holding a 2nd place here suggests he is at least comfortable on this track, as does his inaugural PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open back in 2016. That should be at least correlated with a prior victory on a windy and exposed island course, as well as similar yardages and metrics to seen here. He has developed into a different golfer in the last 6 months to when he won that.

Xander Schauffele 6/10

Another with a recent change in narrative from perennial nearly man to winning 3 tournaments in quick succession in 2022. I do like the way Schauffele’s long-iron performance is likely to be of benefit on this track, where a disproportionate number of shots are going to be over 200+ yards. The difficulty comes with his odds in betting markets and that he is likely to be highly owned in DFS as a safe option. Not sure he possesses the same upside that others do in this extremely star-studded field, where he has only ever finished mid-pack.

Justin Thomas 2/10

I’m not sure where they put the real Justin Thomas, but this isn’t him. On a dreadful run with the putter and his usually elite iron play has been anything but that, even losing strokes on approach to the field in his last outing. Has not gained significantly on approach since June. An easy fade for me.

Sungjae Im 8/10

I was close on Sungjae making the card this week and will be playing him in DFS. The driver is both long and accurate, both requisites for success here. His long irons are truly elite and he ranks as 2nd in the world in the last 2 years for shots over 200+ yards. Losing strokes on approach last time out was ultimately what prevented me pulling the trigger by the slimmest of margins.

Matthew Fitzpatrick 8.5/10

Sneaking onto the card just ahead of Sungjae was Fitzpatrick. Having added some much needed distance in 2022, leading to his breakthrough major victory, he remains an extremely accurate driver of the golf ball. That is important around this track and one of the highest correlating factors to success here. 5th two weeks ago in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship against some of the best in the world, although that field was lacking depth past the top 10-15 players. Played decent enough here in 2021 when arriving off a 64th and 30th. In much better form now on a track that should suit his accuracy and excellent short game.

Collin Morikawa 6.5/10

Will have every motivation to win here and prevent 2022 becoming his first calendar year without a victory as a professional. The accuracy off the tee is a positive, as is the fact his approach play is well on the improve. The putter continues to worry, as does the price being cut from 20s into 17s making this a smidge too short for me.

Viktor Hovland 5/10

Ended 2021 and started 2022 with 3 victories in short succession but has faded a bit since then. One of those of course came here, and he will be motivated to put in a decent showing and defend his title. The short game remains a concern, as does the high winds predicted which will mean some missed greens. Has the talent, but not sure the recent form suggests he will be able to retain the trophy.

Cameron Young 4/10

Plenty of distance off the tee but the accuracy may be an issue here, particularly with the forecast winds. Highly volatile and oodles of ability after what has been a very impressive rookie season in 2022. But has not had a top 10 since July, and not sure he turns up in this field with one here.

Tom Kim 7.5/10

Probably prefer Tom Kim in betting markets, as in DFS he is very obviously mispriced and likely to be extremely high ownership. He should probably form part of your core in head-to-head and cash lines, but should probably be avoided in GPPs. Quietly finished 4th two weeks ago on the Japan Golf Tour, in one of the top events on their tour. It was an event won by the talented Kazuki Higa (watch that name) and Mito Pereira in 2nd. Excited to see what 2023 holds for this ultra-talented 20-year-old.

Tommy Fleetwood 8.5/10

Having recently suffered the sad passing of his mother in July this year, it was clear this was troubling Fleetwood as he has made a real resurgence since. On offer at Bet365 with boosted odds of $26.00 (4 places) is extremely generous for a renowned iron player particularly in high winds. Finished 3rd here in his sole appearance and arrives on the back of a 4th-Win-5th all in decent fields. Sign me up.

Jordan Spieth 3/10

I have Spieth as one of the worst plays on the board on my models. This is likely a little drastic, as the windy conditions should actually somewhat favour him, and he holds decent enough performances here including a 3rd and 4th. Both of those came in his peak when he was winning majors for fun. He arrives here in pretty average form on a course he has his most recent finishes being 16th and 20th in a 20-man field.

Sam Burns 4/10

Undoubtedly has upside on a course where he finished 3rd in his sole appearance here to date. Withdrew in his last outing after an horrific performance both on the greens and with the irons. That is unlikely to happen again but he is a little too risky for me.

Shane Lowry 8/10

Another who I was extremely close to pushing the button on. I’m not sure what Lowry needs to do to earn the respect of bookmakers and the Draftkings pricing team, but I am likely going to keep taking advantage of those positions when I can. Excellent long-irons, great touch around the greens, adept in windy conditions, and has had a great year.

Max Homa 9.5/10

The most mispriced golfer on the board in my models, Homa represents great value for money this week. He is 3rd in this field for SG: Total in the last 3 months (16 rounds) and only drops to 7th when looking at a 6-month window. Building a bit of a reputation for playing well in trickier conditions, with wins at Fortinet Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship. Combined also with windy performances with 13th at The Players and 17th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Also, has a 7th and 19th on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Bahamas. I love the upside and the price on offer. I have taken him with 8 places here, but you can get him as high as $28.00 if looking at pure outright markets.

Corey Conners 6.5/10

I do have Conners slightly overpriced at current offerings of $34.00. 11th two weeks ago on the aforementioned Japan Golf Tour tournament in a strong field, I like the combination of accuracy and long-iron approach play we get from Conners. Unfortunately, this just is such a tough field that Conners name on top of this leaderboard would be the equivalent of Jim Herman winning in 2023. Could get a sneaky top 10, but not sure he has the ability to get the win here.

Billy Horschel 7/10

Quietly in a run of decent form, another that I believe is best in betting markets as it seems he will likely be a popular play in DFS. His lack of distance off the tee is offset by his excellent wedge play and 2nd this year at Arnold Palmer in the wind is another tick. Again, others are preferred but he does hold some appeal.

Sepp Straka 2/10

Despite the dreadful form Straka arrives in, it is (sadly) likely still an upgrade following the injury withdrawl from Tiger Woods. Has missed his last 3 cuts in weak fields and best finish of 45th in his last 5. Then the tournament prior to that, he was 2nd in typical Sepp Straka fashion. Go figure.

Kevin Kisner 1/10

Lacks distance off the tee, has a best finish of 20th since June, and positive short game won’t save the other inadequacies in his game against this field.

2 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In a rare spectacle for golf fans this week we will be treated to players from the DP World Tour, PGA Tour, and the outcasts of LIV Golf all teeing it up at the same venue. Given a temporary stay being granted at the Scottish Open pending full trial, the DP World Tour have conceded allowing players who have sufficient OWGR points to qualify be allowed to play. This is written with sufficient bitterness. Many of those golfers have never bothered to play a DP World Tour event prior.

Whether this provides any additional motivation is hard to tell. On the one hand, players who have remained loyal to the structure of golf will doing their utmost to prevent a difficult to advertise LIV Golf victor. In contrast, this week provides an extremely rare opportunity for the dozen or so LIV Golf players to earn some OWGR points. All in all, I would say this factor ends up even.

It does, however, provide an intriguing backdrop leading into the DP World Tour’s marquee event. Alongside the season ending DP World Tour Championship, this often produces the strongest field of the year. And with no other notable golf tournaments being played this week, the entire golfing world’s eyes will be fixated upon Surrey.

Who should you bet at the BMW PGA Championship? This is your weekly DP World Tour deep-dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and your BMW PGA Championship golf betting tips.

Last Week Recap

Another promising week for our tips, who put themselves close enough to contention although eventually never threatening the lead. Daan Huizing was the pick of the bunch. Tipped at 100/1 he closed with the joint low round of the week of 62 (-9). He returned a Top 8 partial place payout at $20 ($5.25 after dead-heat deductions) and a Top 20 at $6.50.

Jack Senior also cashed a Top 20 ticket at $4.50 ($3.38 after dead-heat deductions). A further three players (Olesen, Coetzee, and Kawamura) all finished agonisingly close in 22nd, just one shot outside a Top 20. As always, it was great to have so many players close to the top of the leaderboard. It is only a matter of time before another gets over the line come Sunday.

Made in Himmerland tips were posted here as well as in Discord: https://windailysports.com/made-in-himmerland-golf-betting-tips-your-dp-world-tour-deep-dive/?ref=31

Course Analysis

Wentworth Club plays host this week, as it has at all BMW PGA Championship events since 1984. Obviously, this means we have copious amounts of data at our fingertips. However, it is worth noting a couple of caveats to this. First, the course underwent some significant renovations in 2016. This saw many greens completely redesigned and a shift to bentgrass surfaces. Secondly, the tournament shifted from May to the current September slot in 2019.

The 7,267-yard par 72 does provide a sterner test than recent winning scores perhaps suggest. Two of those victories, by Willett and Hatton, also came several shots better than the chasing pack. This tree-lined course provides a test of all facets of the game. It is worth noting this is a significant change to the mainly links style courses we have seen lately on the DP World Tour.

Accurate driving and ability to shape the ball off the tee is imperative. The course has never really been overpowered yet, and placement on these severely sloping fairways is always a great place to start.

Greens are small and often multi-tiered requiring pinpoint iron play. Guarded by multiple deep bunkers, reports are that the grass area around the greens have been shaved shorter this year so may prove slightly less penal. Recent wet weather should be offset on greens by the sub-air system installed during aforementioned renovations. Rather uniquely, the course finishes with back-to-back par 5s which can provide for a riveting finish.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXqOmnqGo28

The best starting point is to find excellent iron players who also are driving accuracy positive. A modicum of scrambling may be required. A bonus is positive performances on other bentgrass surfaces.

Weather Forecast

Weather does look to be a potential factor this week. This is made somewhat more difficult by all groups going off the first tee, taking advantage of the longer daylight hours in the UK at this time of year. Make sure you are specifically checking each players tee-times. AM/PM waves can be slightly more difficult to identify this week.

Thursday AM should provide the best conditions of the first two days. Light prevailing winds of 5-8mph alongside gusts of 10-15 mph is mild on a tree-lined course. There may also be some benefit from rain the previous day and light rain overnight. Winds should begin picking up from midday with prevailing winds of 11-14mph and gusts at 25-29mph. This should provide the most difficult conditions of the first two days.

Friday AM should again start calm at 5-10mph prevailing winds and 9-14mph gusts. Inclement weather will arrive slightly earlier from 10am, with prevailing winds of 10-12mph and gusts of 19-22mph. Rain and possible thunderstorms are also expected in the vicinity for Friday PM. Any delay to play should see much better conditions on Saturday morning. Weather is predicted to be calm for the weekend.

I am targeting two windows of weather this week. Those teeing off their first-round before 9am on Thursday should enjoy the best conditions of the opening rounds. They then go off in the Friday PM which looks comparatively calmer, with possibility of thunderstorm delays also a positive. The other window is 10:50am-12pm Thursday tee-times. They should have some calm conditions to start their rounds but then go off first thing on Friday AM.

https://www.windy.com/51.399/-0.592?51.375,-0.592,12,m:e4Oaf8b

Comp Courses

Wentworth Club
Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Emirates Golf Club
Golfclub Munchen Eichenried
Montgomerie Maxx Royal
Mount Juliet Estate

BMW PGA Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Shane Lowry
– 3pts E/W $17.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)

Branden Grace
– 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.30 (Bet365)

Jordan Smith
– 1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $3.75 (Bet365)

Fabrizio Zanotti
– 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 2pts Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Antoine Rozner
– 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)

Sami Valimaki
– 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (William Hill, 8 places, 1/5 odds)
– 3pts Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Justin Walters
– 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (Bet365, 6 places, 1/4 odds)
– 3pts Top 30 $4.75 (Bet365)

Player Profiles

Shane Lowry

The top players all earn their odds and are rightfully priced where they are in the pecking order of chances this week. You don’t need me to tell you that McIlroy, Rahm, and Fitzpatrick are justified favourites. If you do, we have bigger problems to talk about.

I start my betting card with Shane Lowry, who will be looking to stake his Ryder Cup claims in the first week of points becoming available. Lowry’s approach play has been phenomenal. He sits 3rd for SG: Approach for both the last 3 months and 12 months in this field.

Lowry successfully navigated the requisite tough driving when finishing 2nd at the Honda Classic earlier this year. He was last seen in Europe finishing 9th at another tree-lined course (Mount Juliet Estate) that demands accurate driving. In that week, he scrambled just to make the cut after a very poor first round and finishing with 4 consecutive birdies in his 2nd round. It again underlines the level he can perform at when dropping to DP World Tour level that he managed to finish with a top 10.

Further, his performances here have been excellent. With 6 top-15 finishes prior to renovations and the shift to the September dates, Lowry has turned up for 11-13-17 in the last three renditions at Wentworth. There is plenty of other comp course form at Emirates Golf Club, Golfclub Munchen Eichenried, and Montgomerie Maxx Royal.

Arguably, he arrives after what has been his best year on the PGA Tour despite not having a win to his name. A 12th last time out at the BMW Championship was a welcome return to form. He was very unlucky to miss out by one place to the Tour Championship.

8:45am tee-time Thursday suits perfectly to take advantage of those conditions. At 17/1 I have him slightly over valued, where a fair price should be 13/1.

Branden Grace

It galls me to have to finally relent and put a LIV golfer up as part of my tips. Unfortunately, Grace’s credentials prove too tough to pass over at the generous odds that are on offer.

Since moving to LIV, Grace has finished 3-W-13-12. What that is actually worth is tough to judge, however a noticeable jump in driving accuracy of late is noteworthy from what limited stats we get from those events. His other recent appearance was a 24th at the Scottish Open in a world class field.

Grace has an excellent record at Wentworth, with 4 finishes of 11th or better here. Notably, he has not played as well here in the latest renditions. This is somewhat offset when comparing the incoming form there, where a multitude missed cuts and a best prior finish of 30th meaning he was arriving in some fairly average form.

The 12pm Thursday tee-time may prove tough on the first day, but if he is able to stay in touch he is greeted with an early start Friday to compensate. The perceived improvement in ball striking from driving accuracy stats are complimented by his proven scrambling ability and above average putting.

Jordan Smith

I’m tipping an Englishman with my next pick, with 7 of the last 13 winners being locals. With 13/17 of his tournaments this year resulting in a top 25 finish, it is easy to imagine Smith’s name towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

At his best, Smith is long and accurate off the tee and excels with his iron play. The difference between a top 25 and a top 5 for him often comes down to the flatstick. However, I am happy to embrace that volatility and hope to catch him on a spike week at a course where he has finished 13th and 24th with far worse incoming form.

At comp courses this year Smith has a 9th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 21st at the British Masters, and 8th at the BMW International Open. He has also finished 3rd there before, on another course demanding excellent iron play and where we saw renowned ball striker Victor Perez victorious this year. Ranked 13th this year in the DP World Tour rankings, Smith has a genuine shot at making a Ryder Cup team if he continues this upward trajectory.

Fabrizio Zanotti

The last time we tipped Zanotti was at the Irish Open, where he duly finished 4th around the similar tree-lined course of Mount Juliet Estate. As always with the Paraguayan, the difference to victory came with the putter. Since then, Zanotti has mainly played links tournaments which is certainly not a typical strength. As such, his recent finishes of 16th and 12th should actually be read under a more positive lens as his excellent iron play continues to impress.

Alongside that 4th, Zanotti also finished 8th at The Belfry during the British Masters and 18th at the Dubai Desert Classic. The Emirates Golf Club bentgrass greens prove analogous to here, and he managed to gain more than 7 strokes putting to the field in his best putting performance of the year.

Accuracy off the tee and SG: Approach is always a great starting point around Wentworth. This proved to be the case last year, when Zanotti finished 20th when arriving in pretty average form. 11:10am tee-time on Thursday should allow 9 holes under reasonable conditions, followed by 7am Friday under much calmer skies. If he can combine the elite ball-striking with prior bentgrass putting performances, the 80/1 on offer could prove extreme value.

Antoine Rozner

In terms of great ball-strikers, Rozner also holds significant appeal having gained strokes on approach in his last 8 tournaments. This includes being the best player in this field on approach over the last 30 days and 15th for SG: T2G over the last 3 months. That is a lot of value for a 110/1 golfer.

Those recent performances leads to incoming form of 13th and 4th arriving here. That is far better than the 52nd he arrived with on debut here last year, hence easily forgiven. Instead there is appeal from the 13th at the Irish Open, 15th at the BMW International, and 9th last year at the Emirates (where he gained multiple strokes putting).

The excellent approach play is complimented by gaining a massive 20% on the field for driving accuracy when last seen. That suggest his ball-striking is right at its peaks of late, and anything like a mediocre putting performance could see him go very close to the title. 7:50am Thursday tee-time only adds to the appeal for the talented Frenchman whose game is on the rise.

Sami Valimaki

Having just turned 24 years old, we are still finding out exactly where Valimaki’s game is heading. What we do know is this talented young golfer won multiple times at lower levels and won near immediately upon reaching the DP World Tour. In that debut season, he also managed a 13th here in 2020 in his first look at the track when just 21 years old.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1234107065431400449?s=20&t=ar9yZv9aNcec0WsCBf9GTg

Valimaki has never displayed much links form in his first few seasons. So, much akin to Zanotti, recent results of 16th at the Cazoo Classic and 24th at the stacked field of the Scottish Open should be read positively. Complimenting this is the 4th place earlier this year at the BMW International Open in what is always a decently strong field for the DP World Tour.

An excellent putter, Valimaki has now gained for driving accuracy in his last 4 tournaments and gained on approach in 3/4. He sists 28th in this field for SG: T2G over the last 3 months and 7th for SG: Putting. Again, this represents great value at 200/1 and the 7:50am Thursday tee-time holds similar appeals.

Justin Walters

Finally, South African golfer Justin Walters rounds out the picks this week at a speculative play at 250/1. Walters arrived after finishing 4th for SG: Approach when finishing 8th at the Made in Himmerland. That included a week where he was even on the putting surface, typically the weakest part of his game and promising given the true bentgrass greens on course.

Again, not being renowned as a links player should add credence to that recent 8th and a 22nd the start prior. There was a gap of nearly 6 weeks between those tournaments, so the big spike in approach is enough to speculate he may have found some ground in that break.

At comp courses, Walters finished 3rd this year at the British Masters (where he also holds a 2nd) and 20th at the Irish Open when arriving off a missed cut. A prior finish of 10th around the Montgomerie Maxx Royal also holds some correlating form to this track. The 11am start Thursday means he should have 9 holes in calmer weather, followed by being in the 2nd group out on Friday morning. Coupled with improved driving accuracy in his last two appearances, there is enough to speculate that 250/1 could be overs and a realistic chance at some place money on offer.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

2022 BMW Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a start to the FedEx Cup playoffs! The FedEx St Jude Championship delivered an epic finish for golf fans alongside some massive profits for us. Having had multiple 2nd and 3rd place golfers in each of the three prior weeks, we saw one of our tips convert with a huge win with Will Zalatoris at 29/1.

We also had Collin Morikawa come home for 5th and a place money cash, who will be left ruing missing putts of 4ft and 6ft in his last 4 holes. And, perhaps ironically, our best return per $ spent came from Trey Mullinax who was tipped at a whopping 250/1 and duly finished 5th. To cap a fantastic week, we also tipped Ewen Ferguson to win on the DP World Tour and complete a rare trans-Atlantic double.

Wilmington Country Club plays host this week, in what is not only the first professional golf tournament hosted here but in fact the first PGA Tour event in the state of Delaware. Home course of President Joe Biden, the course is immaculately kept with a grand clubhouse sure to provide a picturesque backdrop to the tournament this week.

The stakes are high with the field cut to just the top 70. Not only does the Tour Championship provide lucrative pay checks to the top 30 and eventual FedEx Champion, but also entry to the Majors in 2023. Who should you bet at the BMW Championship? Here is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

Wilmington Country Club is being played as the South course, although it is in fact played as a modified order. The course is a lengthy 7,534 yards par-71. A lot of this yardage falls into the par 5s measuring 582, 634, and 649 yards. It is worth noting the 634-yard 12th also has water short and therefore will take an extremely brave player to go for the green.

Further, three par 4s play over 490 yards and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards. On a typical PGA Tour course players will hit on average four approach shots over 200 yards, where we expect 7 shots to fall into that long iron range here. Two par 4s are less than 400 yards, with the 16th likely to play with forward tees for at least two rounds and be drivable. Doglegs feature in both directions and the ability to move the ball with ease is a prerequisite here.

Fairways are relatively narrow and the rough shifts from 2.5in bermudagrass last week to 4in bluegrass here. Although rough is longer in length, bluegrass tends to be a little less penal and more predictable than bermudgrass. I suspect power will be an essential element to success this week. This will come into play not just in driving distance, but the ability to move the ball forward sometimes substantial distances if finding the rough.

Greens revert to bentgrass here and are almost comically large at 8,100 sq ft. Surpassed only by the Plantation Course as host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, those are some of the largest greens seen on tour. They will play relatively fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and display some of the signature undulating nature seen in other Robert Trent Jones designs.

Comp Courses and Key Metrics

Patrick Cantlay in his press conference stated: “This golf course is definitely just like last year, extremely distance biased. You’ve got to hit it as far as you can and hit a lot of fairways.” Best recipe according to him is topping the field for driving distance, but noted fairways a little narrower than Caves Valley, and then a hot putting week. He stated greens are very true, “all about finding the right line and if you hit a solid putt, it will go in”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H03kfzv_QEs

Alongside last year’s host Caves Valley, the course profiles very similar to Quail Hollow both visually and in terms of the setup of the course itself. Trump National Doral also holds some comparable features, alongside a similar scorecard and length.

The 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic all features courses with bluegrass rough and larger than average bentgrass greens. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational feature as comparisons with relatively lengthy setups combined with some of the larger greens on tour.

The key metrics I am looking for this week are driving distance, performance on approach over 200 yards, and approach putt performance. The latter accounts for the fact lag putting will play a factor for all players at some point of the tournaments. I suspect a winning score of -16 to -18 may do the trick on what on first appearance presents a slightly more penal test than previous iterations of this event.

Weather Forecast

With a condensed field and all players starting off the first tee, the weather plays less of a factor here than in other weeks. Decent enough rain in the lead-up will prevent the course getting too firm. I expect some light rain Wednesday evening, Friday evening, and during the morning on Saturday as well.

The winds appear calmest first thing in the morning before building throughout the day. The wind does not look significantly penal though, peaking at 8-10mph prevailing with gusts of 15-20mph in the afternoons.

https://www.windy.com/39.794/-75.597?39.313,-75.597,8,m:eLuad3b

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Headliners

– Rory McIlroy 4pt E/W $13.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Scottie Scheffler 2pt E/W $21.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Joaquin Niemann 1pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Joaquin Niemann 2pt Top 10 $4.50 (TAB)

Sleepers

– Cameron Davis 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Cameron Davis 3pt Top 10 $6.00 (TAB)

– Keith Mitchell 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Keith Mitchell 2pt Top 20 $3.88 (TAB)

– Taylor Pendrith 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Taylor Pendrith 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Trey Mullinax 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (William Hill)

– Sebastian Munoz 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Sebastian Munoz 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Player Profiles – Headliners

Rory McIlroy

I’ll start by saying it is incredibly rare for me to find value at the top end of the board. This week we do for a couple of reasons, and hence just three players make the headline picks here. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy, who provides a compelling case. I’m surprised we find Rory at 13/1 when it would be unsurprising were he priced at high single figures in a smaller 70-man field.

Alongside 4th at the similar Caves Valley course, Rory has won three times at Quail Hollow alongside a runner-up finish and 9 Top 10s there. The missed cut last week holds little concern for me. Firstly, he is perhaps the best driver in the world (alongside Rahm) and lost strokes off the tee for the first time since March 2021.

I don’t expect that happens again, especially given a course last week that was not necessarily 100% suitable. Secondly, by his own admission he did not touch his golf clubs since The Open Championship and indulged in some unhealthy eating. Shaking off that rust, he still gained on approach to the field, marking 9 tournaments in a row doing so. In the prior 8 events, he has finished no worse than 19th and finished 8th or better in all 4 Majors.

Rory has won 5 FedEx Cup playoff events, beaten only by Dustin Johnson (6) and joined by Tiger Woods (4) as the only golfers with more than 2 FedEx Cup wins. He is also a two-time FedEx Cup champion. A late charge, at a course which should suit his game perfectly, would not surprise in what has been an exceptional year.

Scottie Scheffler

It was a close-run thing for the second spot in, with Scheffler just edging Rahm for value. I have a fair price on Scheffler at 15/1 in this field, so to snatch him at 21/1 is excellent value where Rahm is substantially shorter.

Missing the cut on the number last week, most of his lost strokes came from the putter with his worst putting performance since January 2021. We know how volatile a stat putting can be and starting the tournament missing 4ft and 8ft putts led to some understandable frustration. In fact, Scheffler lost -4.65 strokes putting in that first round but gained +0.76 strokes in his 2nd round in a much-improved putting performance.

Scheffler also beats Rahm in a few key metrics for me. He is 70th on tour this season for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 71st for approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 3rd for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.

Having gained strokes OTT in all but one tournament this year, Scheffler also has gained on approach in his prior 13 tournaments (discount The Players under an extremely windy draw bias). Considering he spent much of his 2nd round chasing the cutline at a penal approach course to smaller greens, a quick rebound can be expected here. Having spent 23 weeks as the FedEx Cup leader, he will have the added motivation having lost that spot following Will Zalatoris’ victory last week.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the most impressive performances of the season came with Niemann decimating Riviera on his way to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Already regarded amongst the game’s elite, the supremely talented Chilean is still just 23 years old. A strong performance this week would be more than just reward for a great season.

Last week, Niemann lost strokes in his first round before finding some incredible form with his irons. Gaining +2.90, +2.11, and +1.38 on approach for the next three rounds saw him finish third in that metric for the week. This followed gaining on approach in 5/6 of his recent tournaments (4 of those by 4 strokes or more) and complimented by gaining OTT in all tournaments this year. Notably, he has gained on the field for accuracy in 2 of his last three suggesting his ball-striking is peaking at the perfect time.

That prodigious distance will come in handy here, with sitting 6th on tour this season for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards another pointer. 3rd, 29th, and 31st at this tournament point to a level of comfort at the end of the calendar and all came in earlier seasons whilst still developing to the player we find today.

Player Profiles – Sleepers

Cameron Davis

Cam Davis arrives here off the back of 5 finishes of 16th or better. He has gained on approach at every event since the Phoenix Open back in February 2022 and gained OTT in 9/10 most recent tournaments.

Plenty long off the tee and with his irons, Davis is also quietly a decent putter and gains on the field majority of appearances (15/19 tournaments in 2022). Bentgrass also tends to be his best putting surface. Davis sits 38th on tour for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 42nd for birdie or better percentage 200+ yards.

Davis is currently 52nd in FedEx Cup rankings and realistically needs a top 5 finish to make next week’s Tour Championship. The talented 27-year-old is certainly arriving in great form to try and mark his first appearance in the season ending tournament with a strong showing here.

Keith Mitchell

Another who is plenty long off the tee, Mitchell arrives after 4 consecutive finishes of 32nd or better and having gained on approach for 5 straight appearances. He has also gained for driving accuracy substantially in his last 2 events, again pointing to some strong fundamentals to his game of late.

Mitchell has some elite form at the comparable Quail Hollow with 3rd, 8th, and 34th (in his rookie year) for his appearances there. Mitchel is 18th on tour for par 3 scoring 200-225 yards and 41st for approach proximity and 45th birdie or better percentage at 200+ yards. Sitting 38th in the rankings, he is in a great excellent position for an inaugural appearance at the Tour Championship.

Taylor Pendrith

In an excellent rookie season, Taylor Pendrith has performed admirably well since stepping up to the PGA Tour despite a significant rib injury in March. Pendrith halted a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 13th or better last week, in a performance which reads on paper worse than it perhaps was. The majority of his strokes were lost with the putter but he was at field average for approach.

In that recent run of high-end finishes was a 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, when losing to a hot-form Tony Finau. That was an improved putting performance, gaining +4.48 strokes putting, and came on bentgrass greens as we see here this week. 26th on tour this year for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards could see a perfect fit here.

Having gained off the tee at every tournament in 2022, Pendrith is able to maintain his extremely long distance whilst remaining accurate. It is a rare combination that could be extremely valuable this week at triple figure odds on offer.

Trey Mullinax

Having delivered for us so beautifully last week, it is hard to resist returning to Mullinax. I tipped him last week at 250/1, so being cut to 125/1 is not drastic given a 5th place and the field nearly halving here.

In that performance, he gained +6.04 strokes approach to sit 7th in the field alongside 4th for SG: T2G. Losing -1.83 strokes putting in the 4th round was what put paid to his chances, with even an average day on the greens likely to have seen him go even closer to victory.

It is somewhat understandable for a player finding himself in that position for the first time at the pointy end of the season. Mullinax has gained strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments. Notably, he is 3rd on tour for approach putt performance meaning these larger bentgrass greens hold less of a concern for me here.

Another top 20 would not surprise and, sitting 41st in FedEx Cup rankings, would see him qualify for next week’s finale. It would cap a remarkable 5 weeks. Following being informed 2 months ago that his father, who was diagnosed was stage 4 cancer, was now cancer-free it would make an emotional realisation of this long hitter’s potential.

Sebastian Munoz

Finally, I will end with a somewhat speculative play on Sebastian Munoz at big odds. Munoz has a reasonably strong record in previous BMW Championships, with 29th last year complimenting an 8th place in 2020 where he made the Tour Championship in his second year on tour.

Munoz had a massive spike on approach last week, having lost on approach in his two prior tournaments to pop when gaining +5.00 strokes. This was his best approach week since the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he finished 3rd having been the first-round leader. It was accompanied by a big jump in driving accuracy, where he does usually excel but the 15% gain was substantial. A return to bentgrass greens holds appeal for a sharp return to form here.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2022 FedEx St Jude Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In an eventful week for golf in what has been an eventful year, the PGA Tour moves from the regular season to our final event with a cutline in the 2021-2022 season. The FedEx Cup playoffs is now a truncated three tournament race to further increased purses and the field is obviously stacked.

Another week at the Wyndham Championship where he had the leader throughout the first few rounds, before we wound up with the runner-up. In this case, we had Sungjae Im at 16/1 and John Huh on the card. At 175/1, the Huh place money was actually better odds than those available on Tom Kim for a historic and decisive victory.

Three consecutive weeks with our picks firmly in contention, it is only a matter of time for one of our golfers to convert for our 10th outright in 2022. Who should you bet for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather predictions, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

It is worth noting immediately that although TPC Southwind has featured on the PGA Tour since 1989, the name of the tournament has changed over the years. It is best to view history for the course rather than tournament name and also noting the event featured significantly more difficult fields when it became a WGC event in 2019. This will be the first iteration as the opening event of the play-offs and it remains to be seen how the course superintendents intend to prepare the course.

The course is a long 7,243 yards par-70 when, for perspective, we would regard 7,400 a fairly average length for a par-72. Fairways are on the narrow side and water features in abundance on the course. Rough is 2.5in bermudagrass which sounds short but we only need to look to last week to remember bermuda is more penal than other varietals and will produce flyers.

Greens feature bermudagrass and are extremely small at just 4,300 sq ft on average. With smaller greens, less reliance on putting statistics and a bump in around the green preference is obvious. A short look at those with course history tells us ball-striking, particularly approach and driving accuracy, is the key to success. Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Aaron Rai are excellent iron players and give a flavour to the ideal profile.

Relatively unique to TPC Southwind is the zoysiagrass fairways. This rare and sturdy grass is used infrequently and typically only in drier climes as it requires less water. Being a stronger grass it does have some unique characteristics. Golfers have commented that balls can sometimes be “teed” up, and other times settle down a little to produce surprise flyers. A winning score is likely to be in the -12 to -15 range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OehJ__lbGBk

Comp Courses

The only other regular tour events with zoysia are TPC Craig Ranch (2021 and 2022 host of AT&T Byron Nelson) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship host). Bellerive Country Club, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, also features zoysia fairways. It is worth noting Brooks Koepka won both that event and the 2019 FedEx St Jude Invitational here. A shame he couldn’t be here this week.

Weather Forecast

The lead in to this event has seen a lack of rain in the past few months with July one of the hottest on record. The course was likely to play extremely firm and fast. Golfers will be grateful that today (Wednesday) the course has received a decent amount of rain. More rain (albeit light drizzle) is expected Thursday.

Winds are expected to be light all week, with single digit prevailing winds and gusts only in the teens. There does not appear to be any weather draw to play.

Thursday morning may provide the softest conditions following Wednesday’s rain, it is not predicted to be a significant enough edge to play.

https://www.windy.com/35.054/-89.779?34.981,-81.969,6,m:eDAadFx

FedEx St Jude Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Will Zalatoris 2pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.25 (Bet365)

– Collin Morikawa 2pt E/W $34.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.50 (Bet365)

– Russell Henley 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– 1pt Top 20 $3.30 (TAB)

– Corey Conners 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

– Aaron Wise 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.60 (Bet365)

– Scott Stallings 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365 10 places 1/7 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)

– Troy Merritt 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $13.00 (TAB)
– 2pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

– Tom Hoge 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 40 $3.75 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Will Zalatoris

Elite ball-striking with less emphasis on putting screams Zalatoris. Gaining on approach in 17/18 strokeplay tournaments this year is obvious for even the casual fan. There are a few other indicators that jump out for me this week.

Zalatoris typically loses a little for driving accuracy on the field. He has gained on the field in his last two events and improved his approach play concurrently, suggesting positive improvements in his ball-striking. Rightly his putting has been regarded has his weakest aspect. However, this year he has gained multiple strokes putting at all US based majors this year suggesting that when the pressure is on he can lift his game. Anything above field average putting should see Zalatoris in the top 10.

Performances of 20th and 21st over the last two weeks in weaker fields is a positive for me. Neither of those courses are necessarily the best fits for him, and to see him still playing well in mediocre PGA Tour events suggests a peak for playoffs is on the cards. Especially at an event he finished 8th in last year when returning from injury and not at 100%.

Finally, Zalatoris fired his caddy mid-tournament last week. We often see a change in a player’s team result in immediate results. His caddy is his short-game coach Josh Gregory, and I can think of no one better to be on the bag. Zalatoris spoke of the benefit having Josh assist with reading putts and may just be what is needed for a win this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc3uWDSNYq4

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa arrives off the back of two missed cuts and may fly under the radar this week. I immediately note that this was at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, with unique bunkering and greens meaning this poses little concern to me. I rather focus on the fact he remains one of the best iron players on Tour, gaining over 5 strokes on approach when last sighted.

His most recent performance in mainland USA was a 5th at the US Open, which is complimented by a 5th at The Masters as well. We know Morikawa can lift for these big events and the fundamentals of his game are solid for this test with long accurate driving and precise irons.

We have previously seen him play well at end of the year, winning the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2021 to claim both the title and the Race to Dubai.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHIDF7avNQw

He also held a 10th there in 2020 and a 6th in 2020 at the Tour Championship, which features zoysiagrass fairways, in his first full year on tour. Morikawa will be acutely aware this is first year he has not had a win by this point. Motivation will be plentiful and a strong performance would not surprise to boost his current 22nd position on the FedEx Cup rankings.

Russell Henley

Another who profiles perfectly for TPC Southwind, Henley arrives off the back of a 10th and 5th place finish. He has hit his straps in both approach and driving accuracy, leading the field last week in approach suggesting he is peaking at the perfect time.

Henley has a 12th and 3rd in his two Tour Championship appearances on the zoysia fairways of East Lake to compliment a 7th here. Henley has a history of playing well in the first playoff event, having been first-round leader at the 2020 and 2017 Northern Trust. The question with Henley is always the putter. Noting 2/3 of his victories have come on bermudagrass provides some positive guidance, as does the Honda Classic win on a water filled course where accuracy is paramount.

Corey Conners

Sitting 29th on the FedEx Cup standings, Conners will be focused on two strong performances to ensure he makes the Tour Championship field.

A similar profile to Morikawa, Conners consistently gains on the field for driving accuracy and approach which is the precise metrics we are focused on this week. Where he lacks his the putting and around the green, but it is worth noting he has a tendency to perform better on smaller greens.

A notable example would be Harbour Town, where he form of 21-4-12 in his last three appearances. Providing an opportunity to shake off the cobwebs, the 21st last week was his first appearance in 3 weeks for a golfer where I have a fair price of 55/1.

Aaron Wise

Another who has a positive expected value in my models, the renowned iron play of Wise holds appeal on a course which should suit.

Although his first appearance on this track, Wise has a history of playing well in the opening playoff event with three made cuts from three attempts including a 5th. In his first tune up in three weeks, Wise managed a 13th at the Wyndham Championship despite not having his best week on approach. Where he did gain was on driving accuracy and putting, so any regression to his above average approach play will hold appeal here.

Scott Stallings

Entering in excellent form, Stallings arrives with 4 consecutive top 13 finishes. He is on offer at triple figures despite this, on a track he has excellent history. Stallings has 6/8 made cuts here, including a runner up. He enters in much better form than the majority of those instances, with the majority coming off missed cuts and finishes worse than 40th place.

Stallings has now gained on approach in 5 consecutive events and seen a spike in his driving accuracy for his last three weeks. The ball-striking has been excellent, and he arrives to a course he has gained on and around the greens on multiple occasions. Zoysiagrass form also adds to the credentials, with 25th and 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch in both the PGA Tour events held there thus far.

Troy Merritt

Sitting 62nd in the FedEx Cup rankings, Troy Merritt needs a good week here to ensure he can continue in the playoffs. He arrives here having gained multiple strokes on approach for three consecutive weeks and a big spike in driving accuracy.

Merritt has volatility with the putter, which is a positive. It provides upside at these odds, as the ability to spike with the putter when combined with the ball-striking suggest a serious run at the top is possible. The opportunity comes at a track where he has already finished 12th and 2nd, complimented by a 7th at TPC Craig Ranch this year.

Tom Hoge

Although the 160s I got on Hoge on opening are no longer available, he is highlighted here for transparency. He may still be available for Top 20 opportunities as well as a lower DFS play.

Hoge led the field in approach on last appearance when gaining more than 10 strokes on the field with his irons. He has now gained for three consecutive weeks on approach, and 4/5 for driving accuracy. He holds a best finish of 12th here and finished with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch this year. With an inaugural victory coming at Pebble Beach, as well as a return of his excellent approach play, this event may come at the perfect time for him.

Trey Mullinax

Finally, a speculative play on Mullinax seems in order. Mullinax won just 4 weeks ago and has now gained on approach in three consecutive weeks. He returns to a course where he has finished 6th and 18th in bigger (albeit weaker) fields. Both of those finishes came after a string of missed cuts, so arriving here in much better form holds sufficient appeal at big odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts