Well, I’ll be the first to say it. WHAT. A. WEEK. We carried on our hot streak, having already successfully tipped Ludvig Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational at 22/1 the week prior, with yet another outright winner! This time, it came on the DP World Tour with Jacques Kruyswijk winning the Magical Kenya Open at 66/1. Not only that, but we also had the golfer who placed 3rd, 4th, and 7th on our card! It was our most profitable week of the year, with full details in the tweet below. All this bodes incredibly well for this week’s preview of the Cognizant Classic, with it’s unique profile and a key comp course providing excellent guidance for this week’s event.
At the Mexico Open, our top selection Alex Smalley (30/1 with 8 places) looked the best candidate hitting the final round. On the front nine, he was just two shots off the lead and a potential to make a charge at the title. All came undone on the par 5 12th. After being greenside in two, a dreadful chip shot led to an untimely bogey. It really took the wind out of his sails, leading to another poor chip on the par 5 14th and a score of +4 on the 6 hole stretch.
Smalley wound up in 10th, just missing the place money at +600. Nicolai Hojgaard secured a full place finishing 8th at +800 along with a Top 20 at +240. Sigg and Highsmith also secured us Top 20s at +290 and +310 respectively.
PGA National Course Analysis
We begin the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour, as we preview PGA National the host course of the Cognizant Classic. This golf course has hosted the tournament since 2007 (formerly the Honda Classic) along with the Ryder Cup in 1983, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. In short, we have plenty of data to go off this week.
Firstly, the move from the West to East coast sees a change in grass type to Bermuda on the greens. As such, you may want to focus more on ball-striking metrics in recent tournaments and identify potential value leverage opportunities for players who generally putt better on this grass type. This will prevalent in upcoming Florida tournaments such as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, and the Valspar Championship.
Off the tee, premium is given to driving accuracy over distance. With water in play for 15 out of the 18 holes, trouble can be found readily if you aren’t dialed in with the driver. If you can have both accuracy and distance, this is of benefit. However, the key isn’t on bomb and gouge but, instead, restrained power.
Another key statistics at PGA National is SG: Approach. Particularly, we see a huge concentration of shots for SG: APP 150-200 yards. On average, nine approaches will occur from this small yardage bucket. When you consider that the three par 5s will often result in an approach shot of 200+, along with two par 3s over 200 yards, you gain an understanding of why this approach range is pivotal to finding success in the Cognizant Classic.
PGA National Course Comps
Over the years of the Cognizant Classic, we have seen a number of players who have found success in The Open Championship then play well in this preview to the Florida Swing. That may initially seem odd, as few aesthetic links can be found between tropical Florida and the commonly frigid conditions of a United Kingdom “summer”.
I believe the explanation here is two-fold. One, Florida often experiences higher than average wind speeds compared to common PGA Tour spots. This is commonly a factor at The Open (or British Open, if you insist). Secondly, PGA National asks similar questions in a different way. If you stray to far off the tee around PGA National, chances are you will find the water. Similarly, at The Open you will likely find either a pot bunker or extremely thick fescue grass and gorse bushes. Either way, this often results in a penalty of a stroke from an unplayable lie or inability to advance the ball.
Other good guides to PGA National can be found at the other Florida courses, particularly the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (accuracy and Bermuda greens) and TPC Sawgrass (accuracy, water hazards, similar approach metrics, and Bermuda greens).
On the Korn Ferry Tour, the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also played nearby and offers similar aesthetics. Benny An, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy, and Mark Hubbard connect these courses nicely.
This Open Championship Host has Undeniable Links to PGA National
Well, as promised, there is one particular golf which displays an extremely strong correlation to PGA National. And, of all places, it is a golf course in Scotland. That is the host of last year’s Open Championship, Royal Troon.
Firstly, we should discount the eventual Champion Golfer of the Year Xander Schauffele. He has only played at PGA National once. It was his first season on the PGA Tour in 2017 and arrived following four missed cut, a 60th, and 66th. Obviously, he developed into quite a different player to his sole appearance here.
The past three winners of The Open Championship when hosted at Royal Troon were Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, and Todd Hamilton. All three have also won at PGA National! Further, Todd Hamilton was arguably one of the biggest shocks in major championship history. He was priced at a whopping 500/1 to win the event. He only won one other PGA Tour tournament in his career. You guessed it, at PGA National.
Leaderboard Correlation Between PGA National and The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon
Looking at last year’s leaderboard from The Open Championship, here is a brief breakdown of the top finishers and their respective links to PGA National:
| Golfer | The 152nd Open Championship 2024 | PGA National Success |
| Xander Schauffele | 1st | Only played once in 2017, his debut season |
| Justin Rose | 2nd | 3 x Top 5s |
| Billy Horschel | 2nd | 5/8 recent starts 16th or better, including 3 x Top 10s |
| Thriston Lawrence | 4th | Never played |
| Russell Henley | 5th | Won (2014), 5 x Top 20s |
| Shane Lowry | 6th | Last 3 consecutive Top 5s (2-5-4) |
| Jon Rahm | 7th | Never played |
| Sungjae Im | 7th | Won (2020), 8th in 2021 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 7th | Never played |
| Matthew Jordan | 10th | Never played |
| Adam Scott | 10th | Won (2016), 5/6 recent starts 14th or better |
| Daniel Brown | 10th | Never played |
| Jason Day | 13th (22nd in 2016) | Only played once in 2008, his debut season |
| Alex Noren | 13th | 3/5 recent starts 9th or better |
| Byeong Hun An | 13th | 4/6 recent starts 21st or better, including a 4th and 5th |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 16th | 2nd in 2020, 5/6 made cuts |
| Collin Morikawa | 16th | Never played |
| John Catlin | 16th | Never played |
| Dean Burmester | 19th | Never played |
| Daniel Hillier | 19th | Never played |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 19th | Never played |
| Sepp Straka | 22nd | Won (2022), 5th in 2023 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 22nd | Never played |
| Padraig Harrington | 22nd | Won (2015) |
Essentially, the top 24 golfers had found success at PGA National if they had played it more than once. It is rare to see two courses with such strong correlation.
This extended to players with little form at other Open Championship venues. Even 2015 Honda Classic winner, Padraig Harrington, put together a solid week despite being aged 52!
We used this correlation to great effect at The 152nd Open Championship, resulting in our most profitable betting week of 2024 gaining +174.89 units.
Cognizant Classic Weather Preview
There looks to be little chance of a significant weather wave advantage developing at this year’s Cognizant Classic. There will likely be some overnight rain on Wednesday and, combined with lower gusts Thursday AM, should see those going off first on Thursday have the best of the day. This is especially pertinent for First Round Leader bets.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are all forecast to play very similar to each other. Prevailing winds should be sustained in high single digits. Gusts will average between 12-18 mph but will be consistent all day.
Cognizant Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips
Thank you for reading my Cognizant Classic preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.
Every week, our resident experts compete against YOU as part of Team Audience in a live PGA DFS draft. Rewatch this week’s episode of the PGA Draftcast below as we preview the Cognizant Classic from a DFS perspective.
You can watch the episode here
