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DraftKings Showdown

NFL DFS Week 14 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

written by Jared Contestabile

At the beginning of the 2022 season, this game looked like it would be a great matchup. Instead, we have the 5-7 Raiders who are fighting for their playoff lives. On the other side, we see the results of a team selling its future for one playoff run. The Rams have been hit with injuries, but have also taken a nosedive with some poor front office decisions. I hope it was worth it! The Raiders are favored by six in this one, with a total around 44.5 points. Let’s get into it!

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Captain/MVP Plays

Davante Adams, Raiders ($19,200 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel)

Man, Davante is pricy here, but I don’t care. It is very difficult to argue that he hasn’t been the top WR in the NFL recently. Check out these stats:

8-177-2 (12 targets) – 40.7 DraftKings points

7-74 (11) – 14.4 DraftKings

7-141-2 (13) – 36.1 DraftKings

9-126-1 (14) – 30.6 DraftKings

10-146-2 (17) – 39.6 DraftKings

He will see Jalen Ramsey in this one, but that doesn’t scare me at all. Ramsey just got cooked for a game-winner by DK Metcalf in the final minute last week. He still ranks among the elite, per PFF, but I’ll side with Adams every time. The Raiders went from being in line for the #2 pick a few weeks back to still having hope for the postseason. I expect another big game from Davante, and I cannot even fathom a fade.

Cam Akers, Rams ($11,700 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

With no Cooper Kupp, I have very little confidence in most players on this team. Even less so now that they signed Baker Mayfield. Regardless, Akers saw 18 touches last week, and parlayed that into 60 yards and a pair of scores. We all know the Raiders issues with opposing RB, as they rank 30th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed.

The Rams’ QB situation is an absolute mess right now. Matt Stafford is on the IR, John Wolford is banged up, and we may see Bryce Perkins and Baker Mayfield as the only healthy options. W-O-O-F. I expect a heavy dose of Akers in this one, as the Rams look to alleviate pressure from whichever replacement-level QB they throw under center in this one.

Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($18,600 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

If you’re not going the Davante route in this one, Jacobs makes the most sense as a pivot in the bonus spot. He has been a machine himself of late, totaling 160, 303 (yes, 303), and 150 scrimmage yards in his last three games.

He has been a limited participant in practice all week, but I’m not overly concerned. Monitor the situation as we get closer to the game on Thursday, but there doesn’t seem to be major concern that he will sit out.

The Rams have been decent against the run, but Jacobs is a man on a mission right now. I don’t think anyone wants to face this offense in its current form. If the Raiders can recover from a 2-7 start to make the playoffs, they could be a force to be reckoned with. Jacobs looks like an elite play once again. VOLUME IS KING!

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Derek Carr, Raiders ($10,200 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

The Raiders’ rise from the cellar has directly coincided with better play from Mr. Carr. He has been solid of late, and makes for a great pairing with Adams in this one. He has attempted 36 or more passes in four of his last five games, and 30+ in all five.

The Rams are 24th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB, and the Raiders are on a roll right now. They have plenty to play for still, and the Rams do not. Carr has an 11/3 TD/INT over that same five-game span, and has a solid floor with a bit of upside here. Fire him up!

Tutu Atwell, Rams ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

The Rams’ leader in targets last week was none other than Tutu Atwell. Now, five targets isn’t exactly an elite level, but opportunity is all we need. Even better, he saw four rushing attempts as well. None of these Rams players seem to have a ton of upside, but we play with the options we have. I love Atwell here due to his ability to stretch the field. Doesn’t hurt that his price tag is dirt cheap also.

Foster Moreau, Raiders ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

Over the last four weeks, only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more fantasy points to TE than the Rams. Moreau has had a roller-coaster of a season, and hasn’t quite lived up to expectations with Darren Waller on the shelf. A good amount of that is due to the breakouts by Adams and Jacobs, so his ceiling is capped. Regardless, he has still found ways to be productive. He has two games in his last four with 12+ DraftKings points.

Other Options

The Raiders defense looks like a decent option here. With the potential that we see Mayfield or Perkins under center, Maxx Crosby and company are licking their chops.

Daniel Carlson remains one of the best kickers in the NFL. Although he has missed a kick in three straight games, he has still posted double-digit scores in each game. Matt Gay is 18/19 on the season…the Rams haven’t given him a ton of opportunities, but he has been solid when his number is called.

I’m not expecting the Rams to have a ton of success throwing the football, but Van Jefferson is always a threat to make a big play. He’s priced a bit higher than I like here, but the upside exists.

I’d rather go with Brandon Powell, who is just $2,400 on DraftKings. He saw seven touches last week, and took on a similar hybrid role to Atwell. With both Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson on IR, SOMEONE has to catch the ball, right? RIGHT?

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 13 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Tom Brady and Tampa Bay host their kryptonite on MNF with the New Orleans saints coming to town. Brady has had a hell of a time against this defense since his arrival in the NFC South. Regardless, the 5-6 Buccaneers are listed as 3.5-points favorites with a total of just 41 points. Let’s cash in on MNF showdown!

Captain/MVP Plays

Chris Olave, Saints ($12,600 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

The Saints will need to make plays down the field if they are going to stay competitive in this one. Miraculously, they still have a window to win the South, but this win would be an absolute must if they are going to have a shot. Regardless, Olave has been a revelation for the Saints this season, especially with Michael Thomas out for the season.

Olave saw 13 targets in the first meeting, and hauled in five passes for 80 yards. He has caught 10 of 15 targets over the last two weeks for 164 yards and a score. I’m not expecting a ton of offense in this one overall, but I’m banking on Olave being busy all night long.

Chris Godwin, Bucs ($15,900 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

I’m not overly excited about paying top salary for Godwin on DraftKings, but he is the 6th-highest priced player on FanDuel. He has kept Tom Brady and the offense alive the last two weeks, catching 18 of 21 targets for 181 yards and a pair of scores.

Fellow wideout Mike Evans has done very little with his opportunities of late. The offense overall has been a travesty recently, so I’m rolling with Godwin again. His volume is elite here, and Brady will need every bit of yardage he can get out of his favorite target.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Leonard Fournette, Bucs ($7,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

Lenny may not be 100% coming into this one, but he is expected to suit up. Both defenses have been solid against the run, and both rushing attacks have struggled. That said, Fournette’s work in the passing game puts him firmly in play here for me. He will undoubtedly cede some work to Rachaad White, but White wasted an opportunity to seize the job.

The Bucs absolutely need this win, and I’m expecting Brady and company to stick with what they know works. I’m willing to be dead wrong here, but I’m expecting Fournette to see more work than White.

Taysom Hill, Saints ($6,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Tread lightly here, because I never seem to get Taysom right. However, we all know how well Andy Dalton performs under the bright lights of Primetime. Hill has seen 15 carries and attempted four passes over the last two weeks. He is reasonably priced, and I’m considering a full fade of Alvin Kamara here. Kamara has been remarkably inconsistent, and his usage in the passing game hasn’t paid off. Factor in his salary, and I’m all aboard the Hill train.

Kickers!

Like I mentioned above, I don’t expect this one to be high-scoring, and Vegas agrees. This is a perfect storm for both Willie Lutz and Ryan Succop. The weather looks to be tame in this one, and stay nice and warm down in Tampa. I will be forcing in some legs over arms for this showdown slate.

Other Options

Mike Evans always has elite upside, and now his enemy #1 Marshon Lattimore seems unlikely to play. Brady needs every break he can get in his old age, and his absence would be huge (monitor this leading up to lock). I still prefer Godwin, but Evans could pay off nicely for those who focus on his recent lackluster performances.

Adam Trautman is in play here with Juwan Johnson on the shelf. He is a solid play at near minimum on DraftKings ($1,200). His floor is low, of course, but the risk is almost non-existent.

Rachaad White could be a solid play here as well. The Saints are tough against the run, and he will be splitting work with Fournette. That said, he has 100+ yards in each of his last two games, so he is building some momentum.

If you’re a believer in Brady’s struggles against the Saints (0 or 1 TD in three of his last four vs the Saints), then you need to grab a few shares of the Saints defense. They have had their ups and downs, but may just have a mental arrogance about them in this one.

Julio Jones has 18 targets over his last four games. I like him as a low-mid range option here with a decent floor.

Rashid Shaheed always seems to show out on showdown slates, and he is dirt cheap here. At $1,400 on DraftKings, I’ll take a shot on a trick play or two going for big yardage.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 13 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

The Colts squandered a golden opportunity to keep their playoff hopes within a reasonable distance in their loss to the Steelers. A trip to Irving, Texas won’t make that path any easier either. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Colts have a 3% chance to see the postseason in 2022. Regardless, if this game matters to anyone, it’s the Cowboys. Dallas is sitting pretty as we move toward the playoffs, but there is a lot more upside to be had. The Eagles have been an unstoppable force. The ‘Boys are favored by 10.5 with a total of 44.5. Let’s get into it.

Captain/MVP Plays

Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($12,300 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

FREE TONY P! FREE TONY P! The Cowboys are back, and that mean Tony Pollard is back on showdown. He continues to see massive volume despite the timeshare with Ezekiel Elliott. He has 20, 21, and 25 touches the last three games, and should see similar volume here again.

The Colts rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB, and you all know Tony P is the GOAT. Even if you’re a Zeke believer for some reason, Tony’s volume is too elite to ignore. Expect him to be one of the focal points of the offense yet again.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($15,000 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

Mr. Workhorse is back in the house, and is going to need a huge game to keep the Colts in this one. He has seen 23+ touches in each of the last three games. The Colts’ passing game has been a bigger embarrassment this season than Kanye West’s mouth. They will need to rely on their stud throughout this one to have even a prayer in this one.

His lack of pass-catching upside is the only thing that holds him back from having the highest upside on the slate. That said, he has seen 10 targets over that same three-game span so he isn’t invisible to Matt Ryan. Also working in his favor is the fact that the Cowboys have an ELITE pass rush, and Ryan will be hurried constantly in this one. I expect Taylor to be the beneficiary of a few panic-stricken throws from the Colts’ aging QB.

Cowboys D/ST ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Yes, you read that correctly. I’m ALL OVER the Cowboys defense in this one. Matt Ryan should not be starting at QB in the NFL right now. I know the Sam Ehlinger was terrible in his short stint, but Matt Ryan has been arguably worse.

For my money, the Cowboys have been the best defensive unit in the NFL this season. This is an extremely hard matchup for a Colts team that has struggled to keep Ryan upright. Ryan made it well into the SECOND QUARTER before he completed a pass to his own team against the Steelers. That unit isn’t on this level. I expect Ryan to be absolutely brutalized by Micah Parsons and company. I’m all over the Cowboys D/ST train here. ALL ABOARD!

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys ($7,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

I may not like the guy or love his skillset, and he certainly ain’t no Tony Pollard. Regardless, I always preach volume, and “Zeke” continues to eat. Since his return from injury, he has seen 33 touches in two games, and parlayed those opportunities into 142 yards and three touchdowns.

This will undoubtedly be a sickening situation for fantasy players again, but that won’t be changing any time soon. Let’s just make peace with it, ok? Zeke continues to get fed and do that stupid spoon celebration. We might as well make some money off it, right? RIGHT?

Dalton Schultz, Cowboys ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Over the last month, Schultz has been among the most consistent TE in the NFL. He has posted DraftKings totals of 13.4, 17.4, 5.2, and 19.1 points over that time frame. The Colts are middle-of-the-pack against opposing TE (17th), but have been much tougher on WR (1st).

Schultz makes sense as a solid floor, decent upside play on this slate. And he is cheap, cheap, cheap.

Michael Pittman, Jr., Colts ($9,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

I’m not overly interested in the Colts offense in this one, but once again volume plays a factor. Not only is Pittman seeing elite volume (11 targets last week), but he has the elite skills to convert those targets into points. He has also been remarkably consistent despite the inconsistencies of this offense. He has double-digit DraftKings points in all but two games this season, with 19+ on three occasions.

Other Options

CeeDee Lamb deserves some of your attention in this one. The Colts have allowed the LEAST number of fantasy points to opposing WR, but Lamb isn’t just any WR. He is among the elite, even early in his young career. The Cowboys have focused more on the run of late (57% last week, 50% over the last three), but Lamb is the clear alpha dog in this offense out wide.

Both Brett Maher and Chase McLaughlin are in play here, but C-Mac has missed a kick in three straight games. Maher is the much safer option, and will likely see more opportunities with the Colts bound to struggle on offense.

I’m not into chasing points with Jelani Woods here. He is banged-up coming into this one, and Kylen Granson is expected back as well. He could be productive, but likely won’t see a high volume of snaps either way.

I’m willing to give a look to Parris Campbell in this one as well. Like I mentioned above, I don’t expect Ryan to have much time to throw. That said, he will be looking to get the ball out quick. That could benefit Campbell in this one.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

We kick off December with a fantastic game on TNF. The Bills and Patriots are both jockeying for position in the AFC playoff picture, not to mention the AFC East. This one has massive playoff implications, and I can’t wait to watch it. The Bills are short 3.5-point favorites with a total of 43.5. Let’s get to work on this one!

Captain/MVP Plays

Mac Jones, Patriots ($14,100 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Listen, if you’ve read my content, you know I’m not a big Mac Jones fan. Well, Thursday night “Mr. Jones and me” both just wanna be big, big stars. He wants to take down Josh Allen and the Bills, and I’m looking to take down a GPP. Let me explain.

If I asked you right now how many teams had been worse than the Bills against the pass over the last two weeks, would you guess more than one? Only Detroit (55.70 fantasy points per game) has been worse than the Bills. Over the last two games, the Bills have served up five scores and nearly 400 yards to opposing receivers. What does this have to do with Mac Jones, a quarterback? Well I’m glad you asked.

Mac Jones is coming off his best game as a pro (28-39, 382 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT), and the Bills will be without Von Miller once again. This is a vulnerable unit right now, and with Jones and company playing at home, this is the perfect storm for another Mac attack. He may or may not become one of my favorites if he takes care of business in this one.

Isaiah McKenzie, Bills ($10,200 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

Mixing it up a bit more, but absolutely love this. Obviously these two teams have a long history against one another. However, the recent history has shown the Bills simply massacring their rivals from Foxboro. One of the key pieces in their regular season win last year was McKenzie. He also is coming off one of the best games of his life on Thanksgiving (6-96-1 and 2-7 on the ground. He has become a vital part of this offense, and I think he’s a solid pivot play at the bonus spot.

The Pats have done well against Stefon Diggs…and pretty much nobody else…in recent matchups. McKenzie has seen success in this matchup, going off for 11-125-1 against New England last December. I think he’s a very solid play across the board as well.

Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($15,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

The easy thing to do here would be to talk about Josh Allen, but I don’t like to take the easy route. Allen has embarrassed the Patriots like Phil Dunphy embarrasses his kids. Constantly. Enough about Allen. If you don’t know what he can do, you’ve come to the wrong place.

Enter Stevenson. Not only has he been an absolutely elite option to have on any season-long fantasy team, but he has been dominant IRL (as the kids say). He has taken on an Austin Ekeler-type role, and there isn’t a more coveted role among RB for fantasy purposes.

Over the last five games, Rhamondre Stevenson has thirty-eight targets. Yes, 38. Putting that in perspective, that’s more than Chris Olave, DJ Moore, AJ Brown…and many more. Add that on top of the nicely-packed fantasy gift that is sixty-four carries, and it’s almost too much to handle. Stevenson is a legitimate #1 fantasy option on any team right now. Now he draws a Bills team missing its top defender. I feel right now the way I feel when I see a new Arby’s commercial. Hungry and ready to eat. So let’s eat. Get yourself some Rhamondre!

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Dawson Knox, Bills ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

If perfection exists on the elite level of sport, I’ve only seen it twice in my life. The 2013-14 Spurs against the Heat in the NBA Finals and the 2021 Bills vs. Patriots in the playoffs. Knox was a huge part of that. In fact, he scored the first two touchdowns, and ended up with a monstrous 5-89-2 line.

If you’ve been reading my Tight End article, you’ve seen me mention the Patriots propensity to allow scores to opposing TE. Only the Cardinals have allowed more TD than the eight served up by Belichick’s squad. In fact, New England has only given up six touchdowns to wide receivers all season…

Devin Singletary, Bills ($7,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

I admittedly don’t love Singetary in this spot, but at his DraftKings price, he is hard to ignore. You can build a very nice, balanced lineup with Singletary over there. I respect the Patriots run defense a TON, but I also know that their priority will be taking away Diggs and the passing game.

He has 14, 20, and 15 touches the last three weeks, and although his work in the passing game leaves plenty to be desired, he is in play here. He makes for a solid filler option with a high floor and low ceiling.

Nelson Agholor, Patriots ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)

It looks like Jakobi Meyers will suit up for this one, but may be less than 100% with a shoulder injury. Agholor took on a huge role last week in the Turkey Day shootout against the Vikings. He hauled in six of eight targets for 65 yards and a tuddy. Regardless of the status of Jakobi, I like Agholor here in a game script that could heighten the need for passing.

Other Options

I’m taking my stand here, and more than willing to take the the “L”. I’m fading Stefon Diggs. He is very pricey, and dollar for dollar, I much prefer Stevenson. Of course you will want and need Josh Allen shares, regardless of his elbow situation. His goal-line prowess alone raise his floor to enormous heights. Plus, you know, he kinda owns these guys.

Tyler Bass is one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL, and to steal a quote from the great Ludacris, he’s been putting up “McDonald’s numbers”. Nick Folk is a volume kicker as well in an offense that struggles to finish drives. Don’t be shocked if the kickers are among the highest scorers in this one. I don’t mind the idea of throwing them each into a bonus spot if you’re doing MME.

Hunter Henry is coming off what seems like his first productive game in years, and he’s in play against a suddenly beatable Bills defense.

If you’re looking for the deepest discount plays on DraftKings, I don’t mind Kendrick Bourne or Jonnu Smith, but both are very game-script dependent. They are priced accordingly, so tread lightly. The floor they each possess is the same as yours or mine in this one.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Two teams that aren’t exactly in great shape this season face off on Monday Night Football. The Colts are sitting as 2.5-point favorites with a total sitting just under 40 points. I certainly don’t expect the fireworks we saw last night in this one. Neither team has a reliable offense, and both defenses are capable of making plays. Let’s find ourselves an edge in this one!

Captain/MVP Plays

Michael Pittman, Colts ($15,300 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Not only are the Steelers dead last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR, but it’s by a decent margin. Pittsburgh is serving up nearly 43 fantasy points per game, while no other team is over 40. Pittman is still the clear #1 in this offense, and is in a great spot.

Now that the Sam Ehlinger experiment is well behind us, having a capable arm in Matt Ryan under center bodes well for Pittman and company. He has seen at least 6 targets in every game this season, and is averaging eight per game over his last five. The major downfall for Pittman here is that he inexplicably has only found the end zone ONE time this season. I’m expecting that number to change after MNF.

Najee Harris, Steelers ($14,100 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

The Colts have been decent against the run this season, ranking right in the middle of the NFL in fantasy points allowed. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: volume is king. The Steelers have finally wised up enough to give Najee more looks, and that bodes well for him in this one.

Harris has averaged 22 touches per game over the last two weeks, and has seen an increase in targets as well. Excluding the Saints game (0 catches on 1 target…thanks a lot Matt Canada), Najee has averaged over five targets per game in the last month.

Kenny Pickett hasn’t thrown for more than one score in a game yet this season, and has more than twice as many INT than TD (8-3). I have very little faith in him against a solid defense in a less than ideal matchup. I’ll roll with Najee. Jaylen Warren is also OUT for this one, which only solidifies Harris as a bellcow here.

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($17,100 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

You knew it was coming. Speaking of volume, a healthy Taylor sees elite volume that is second to none. He has averaged 25 touches per game over his last two, totaling 257 yards and a pair of scores. That seems pretty, pretty good. The Steelers are 19th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs.

They are coming off a game where they got cooked by backup Samaje Perine to the tune of 30+ fantasy points, including three scores. While Perine did most of his damage in the passing game, this is far from an elite run-stopping unit.

Expect Taylor to be heavily utilized early and often in this one, as the Colts look to control the clock and pace.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

George Pickens, Steelers ($7,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

While Kenny Pickett has been ultimately pretty terrible thus far in his young career, he has built a solid rapport with his fellow rookie Pickens. Pickens showed his true colors last week with a late dirty hit at the end of the game. He then followed it up by talking about how great he was. The kid has a lot to learn as far as humility goes, but he has shown himself capable of making big plays.

He has scored in back-to-back weeks, one on the ground and one through the air. Aside from the Philadelphia game where he put up a donut, he has posted 18.1, 14.5, and 18.3 points in his last four games.

Parris Campbell, Colts ($6,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Speaking of Colts receivers, Campbell has made his presence known of late. His floor remains very low, but he has proven to be one of Matt Ryan’s favorites. He has seen nearly 10 targets per game in Ryan’s last four starts.

I do expect this game to be more run-heavy, but Parris needs to be on your radar in what looks to be a solid matchup.

Pat Freiermuth, Steelers ($6,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Another Steeler player who has been solid, albeit unspectacular this season is Freiermuth. He is coming off a great game against the Bengals where he posted 8-79 on 12 targets. While this game script makes it seem very unlikely that he will see that sort of volume again, he is a safety blanket for the young Pickett.

In nine games this season, he has posted 75+ yards in four of them. He doesn’t have a massive ceiling by any means, but his floor is solid.

Other Options

Mo Alie-Cox played 62% of the snaps last week, with 38% going to Kylen Granson. Granson is now listed as doubtful for this one, which could lead to more opportunities for “MAC”. His floor may still be actual zero, but the opportunities could follow. Jelani Woods could see an increase in snaps as well.

Chase McLaughlin has been solid this season, and is a solid play here, especially at home. He is 11/13 at home on the season. Matthew Wright is still kicking for the Steelers with Chris Boswell on the IR. He was 3/3 last week, and with the Steelers not finishing drives well…he is in play here also.

The Colts defense is the side I’m looking at in this one. I’ve mentioned Pickett and his turnover issues, and the Colts just simply do not give up big scores. They held the Chiefs and Eagles each to 17 points. I see them being a solid option on MNF.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 11 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Justin Elick 2 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Monday Night Football brings us another matchup with a large spread. The 49ers are currently favored by 10 in Arizona against the Cardinals. The home team has major injury concerns for this one. Zach Ertz is OUT for the season, and both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are limping into this one at less than 100%. Keep an eye on the status of those key players for this one as the day progresses. Let’s cash in tonight!

Captain/MVP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,100 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

I’m hoping that ownership comes off McCaffrey a bit in this one after Elijah Mitchell stormed back into a major role in the offense. I am a big fan of both here (more on Mitchell in a bit), but McCaffrey still possesses one of the highest ceilings of any player in the NFL.

He totaled 18 touches last week against the Chargers, totaling 77 yards and a score. Not exactly mind-blowing numbers, but the volume will remain elite. This isn’t quite the matchup that we saw last week, but Arizona still ranks 20th in the NFL, allowing more than 23 fantasy points per game to opposing RB.

My main hesitation with CMC would be a potential blowout. If Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins both sit this one out, it could get ugly. That said, CMC is an elite talent with a great role in this offense. You’ll want exposure to him in this one.

Rondale Moore, Cardinals ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Regardless of the status of Hopkins or Murray, I’m all aboard the Moore train. He is coming off one of his best games of the season, and the Cardinals will need all the help they can get in this one. Even if Colt McCoy suits up in place of Murray again, Moore is in a good spot.

The 49ers are 2nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB, but middle of the pack against WR. Moore is a solid option across the board, and should be low owned in the bonus spot.

George Kittle, 49ers ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Kittle was a non-factor last week against the Chargers, but draws a dream matchup here against the Cardinals. You know from the Tight End article each week that we continue to pick on Arizona with TEs, and this is a smash spot for Kittle.

The Cardinals remain the worst in the NFL against opposing TE, allowing nearly 21 fantasy points per game. Fire him up! His DraftKings salary is far too low also…

Other Options

I work in management for a major retailer, so I’m cutting it a bit close on time with the holiday week. Here’s a quick breakdown of some more options I’m going after for MNF.

It’s DEFENSE MONDAY! The 49ers defense has elite upside each week, and being listed as a big favorite only helps matters. Regardless of who is under center, the 49er defense is in play here for me.

Elijah Mitchell is another option you need to be invested in for the showdown slate. His salary isn’t the stone minimum it was last week, but his role was ELITE. If the 49ers roll through this matchup as Vegas expects, then Mitchell could once again see 15+ touches. This isn’t the cake matchup it was last week, but you need to have some shares of Mitchell here.

James Conner isn’t in a particularly good spot, but with Eno Benjamin out of town now, he should continue to see a few extra looks in the passing game. He had 24 touches last week. This game script likely won’t dictate him seeing 20+ carries, he will be heavily involved once again.

Colt McCoy/Kyler Murray are both in play here depending on who suits up. I’m not dying to play McCoy, but I see the validity in playing either with Arizona likely to be behind for much of the contest.

Jauan Jennings had himself another solid game last week, and is a viable dart throw here. AJ Green found the end zone last week, and could see a few extra looks if Hopkins doesn’t suit up. His floor is very low, but he is cheap!

Both kickers are solid options here. Kickers have continued to post good numbers on showdown slates, so I’d advise some exposure here!

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 11 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

If you’re sick of seeing the Chargers and Chiefs in showdown slates, you’re just going to have to get over it. These two playoff contenders are facing off yet again, and the first matchup was a blast. The Chargers did what they do and blew a late lead. They led 17-7 in the 3rd quarter before serving up 20 straight points to Patrick Mahomes and company. There may or may not have been some controversial calls, but it’s the NFL. What do you expect? Let’s find ways to take down a big one on this Sunday Night Football showdown slate!

Captain/MVP Plays

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($15,600 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

Wildly enough, Herbert is the 4th-most expensive player on both sites for the showdown slate. Taking nothing away from the likes of Austin Ekeler, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce, but this is a great spot.

Kansas City is 28th in the NFL, allowing nearly 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WR. Herbert may be getting Keenan Allen AND Mike Williams back for this one. If both are out again, Herbert takes a bump down.If all all systems are “GO” on both WR, Herbert has a huge ceiling here.

In the Week 2 matchup, Herbert threw for 334 yards and a trio of scores with one interception. Allen also sat that one out. Kansas City is a healthy 5.5-point favorite on the road here, so game script will likely dictate a high volume of passes once again. The Chargers have thrown the ball on a whopping 71% of plays over the last three weeks, easily the highest mark in the NFL. You all know what this kid can do. I’m prioritizing him here, especially if he gets one or both of his weapons back.

Kadarius Toney, Chiefs ($12,000 DraftKings, ($8,500 FanDuel)

Can you imagine what the ownership would be on Toney if this game were on the main slate? JuJu Smith-Schuster is OUT. Mecole Hardman is OUT. Toney had six touches last week, turning his opportunities into 90 yards and a score. He’s going to be wildly popular here, and for good reason. I can’t fathom a fade here, and he will be in 100% of my lineups. I don’t see this as the spot to get different on this slate.

Marques Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

One swerve I like here off a popular Toney is MVS. Like I said, I’ll still be rostering Toney, but putting MVS in the bonus spot opens up a world of opportunities. He played on 84% of the offensive snaps last week, and KC didn’t need a whole lot out of their wideouts. That may not be the case this week. The total of 51.5 points is easily the highest on the slate…and is the ONLY one on this slate.

Last week we saw a rare occurrence for Kansas City. They threw the ball on only 56% of their offensive plays. They saw a matchup they liked, and they exploited it (more on that in a bit). I don’t see the team prioritizing the run here, even in a prime matchup. I expect the Chargers to put up points, and MVS will undoubtedly see some looks down the field at a bargain bin price.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, Chargers

There is a lot up in the air about this one, mainly with these two key players for the Charger offense. Continue to monitor this situation, but let’s assume that both play. If that’s the case, I want Williams here. With Allen still dealing with a hamstring injury, that’s a road I won’t be traveling on much. Williams also carries a much higher ceiling. If just Allen plays, he is a fine option, but I see him more as a cash game guy than a GPP-winner. The risk is real with aging WR and hamstring injuries.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($11,400 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Some may say Mahomes is the best ever. Log in to Twitter (while you still can) for any amount of time, and Mahomes will be compared to every QB in the history of the game. One thing we do know is that Mahomes is magic. There are things this guy makes look so effortless that you almost take it for granted.

Enough about what he HAS done, let’s talk about what he WILL do. A win here likely makes the AFC West a forgone conclusion for Kansas City. That would leave the Chiefs at 8-2 and the Chargers at 5-5, essentially four games back when you factor in the tiebreaker. Please believe we will get the best that Mahomes has to offer.

That said, I think this is a prime spot for the Chargers to compete. Mahomes will get his fantasy points like he always does, but if the Chargers come into this one with healthier offensive weapons…watch out. Mahomes has a ceiling that is second to none over the course of a season. Call me crazy, but I like Herbert’s ceiling here juuuuust a bit more.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs ($6,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

I know what you’re thinking. I just got finished telling you that I think last week’s run-heavy approach was an aberration. That can remain true while Pacheco hits value. If for some crazy reason you are unaware, this Charger run defense is a travesty. They have allowed nearly 1500 total yards (rushing and receiving) and 13 touchdowns to opposing backs this season.

Pacheco has been efficient when given volume, but is almost non-existent in the passing game. He is another player that doesn’t have huge upside, but will likely see double-digit touches. If he finds the end zone, he could pay off nicely here.

Other Options

Jerick McKinnon is the complete opposite of Pacheco. He has 12 catches on 16 targets over the last two weeks, and has totaled just over 100 yards over that span. He may once again be heavily involved, especially with the Chiefs’ injury issues at WR.

I’ll never talk you out of playing Travis Kelce, and he is among the best plays on the slate. He didn’t do much against this team in Week 2 (10.1 DraftKings points, lowest of the season), but that matters little. He caught 17 of 24 targets for 195 yards and a pair of scores against them last season. Kelce has unmatched upside among the skill players.

Gerald Everett is in a good spot here. The Chiefs are 25th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE over the last month. He went for 6-71 on 10 targets in the first meeting. He could have had a touchdown too (it went the other way), but we will leave that one alone…

Cameron “Dicker the Kicker” Dicker is still perfect on FG attempts this season. We won’t see a more fun matchup of kicker names than him against Harrison “ButtKicker” Butker. Both are very solid plays here.

Looking into the value bin, I see a few options I like. Noah Gray has 5-75-1 over his last two games and is dirt cheap.

My favorite cheap play that I’m REALLY hoping goes unnoticed is Justin Watson. He is just $1,400 on DraftKings, and played on 73% of the offensive snaps last week. He has eight targets over the last three weeks. Insert the “interested eyes” emoji here. LOOK!

Taking a flier on Skyy Moore seems like a waste, but he is just $600 on DraftKings. He played just 24% of the snaps last week despite the injuries. He won’t be on the field much, but he SHOULD be involved? I’m not forcing him in anywhere, but he’s a low-risk option at that salary if you want to jam in some studs.

Austin Ekeler always has slate-breaking upside. He has been very inefficient as a runner, posting more than 4 YPC only twice this season (Browns and Texans…duh). He has 12+ targets in three of his last four, but I’d expect that number to drop if Williams and Allen return here.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 11 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Thursday Night Football in Week 11 brings us a battle between two team with playoff aspirations. The Titans (somehow) come into this one at 6-3, despite not scoring more than 24 points in a single game. The Packers are riding high off their comeback win against Dallas, but sit at 4-6 and outside the playoff picture. The Packers’ 31 points against the Cowboys was a higher number than their TOTAL from their previous two games (26). There is plenty to see here in this one. Let’s get started.

Captain/MVP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($15,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

I don’t have the numbers in front of me. I’d be willing to wager that Rodgers hasn’t often been anything but the highest-salaried player on a showdown slate more often than not. Am I back in on Rodgers? Hell no. I was even tweeting about him needing to hang up the ol’ proverbial cleats during Sunday’s game.

That matters little here. The Titans are the fakest “good” team in the NFL. Year in and year out. Phenomenal coaching (and Derrick Henry) have carried this franchise for the last few years. They rank 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB, and were just picked apart by Patrick Mahomes two games ago.

Rodgers isn’t in Mahomes’ class anymore, but in this spot, he needs to be on your radar. He looked like vintage Rodgers at times late in the Cowboys game. He is still going to make some head-scratching decisions (it’s the vaccines and ayahuasca), but his upside here is big. Like as big as his ego (well, almost).

Stats, shmats. I believe in Rodgers more here than I have all season. I’m destined for disappointment.

Derrick Henry, Titans ($17,400 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

“King” Henry takes the field in a great spot. By the way, why is he called “king”? King of the AFC South? Let’s not get carried away bragging about being “king” of the NFL equivalent of the MAC. Enough about nicknames.

Only the Houston Texans (who are on a historically bad pace) have allowed more rushing yards than the Packers’ 1248 this season. Henry had one of his worst games of the season last week against the Broncos, totaling just 53 rushing yards on 19 carries. One major difference between TNF and that game. The Broncos actually PLAY defense (but not offense…ZING!).

The Titans have scored either 17 or 19 points in each of their last four games. Their offensive upside is equivalent to a turtle’s vertical leap. However, the Titans go as Henry goes. The rest of the offense is sporadic, and quite honestly, just sucks.

Henry has seen less than 20 touches in a grand total of two games this season. We know one thing for certain. Volume is king. It remains to be seen if Henry is truly the “king” of anything. Stay tuned.

Christian Watson, Packers ($11,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

You hungry? Can I interest you in some nice chalk? Watson was the consensus top waiver priority in season-long leagues this week, and will be popular in this showdown. While it makes sense to play angles, look for low-owned plays, etc…I’m not convinced you can fade Watson here.

The entire sports world knows that he is coming off of a 4-107-3 line (eight targets) against Dallas. If you think a touchdown on 75% of your catches is sustainable, I have a nice condo to sell you on Atlantis. Right next door to Tupac and Elvis Presley (they are still alive!). However, what may actually BE sustainable is a good rapport with one of the best to ever do it (Rodgers).

The Titans pass-funnel defense will lead to plenty of good looks for the Packers wideouts. With Romeo Doubs OUT, there is even more to go Watson’s way. Did I mention the fake-good Titans are 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR? It’s quite elementary, my dear Watson (fan). Get this man into your showdown lineups.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Robert Tonyan, Packers ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

One last dig at the Titans, ok? They are also an embarrassment against the TE position. They rank 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the position. Who is worse, you ask? Who cares? This is a showdown slate. Tonyan has a low floor (he had ONE target last week), but this is a matchup-dependent play.

Tonyan should be back to his normal complement of 4+ targets in a plus matchup here. I’m not big on the running game here. Gimme all the passing targets for old man Rodgers.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans ($6,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

At least Ryan Tannehill is back! That’s a phrase I never thought I’d utter in my lifetime. You all saw (and read) about what happened with Malik Willis under center. Tannehill is not a very good QB, but he can post garbage, empty stats with the best of them.

Robert Woods has to be hating himself for his move to Tennessee. 24/7 country music AND an offense that pretends like WR don’t exist? He may as well have stayed in Los Angeles. At least he could enjoy some scenery while being ignored by an aging QB.

Enough about Woods. Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off a performance that more than doubled his production on the year (5-119-2). One was a trick play with a blown coverage, but nevertheless. Someone has to make plays in this passing game, and I’m much more a believer in NWI than anyone else. I’m not excited about it. But if I’m choosing here, it’s NWI over Woods.

Packers D/ST ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

You know what time it is. DEFENSE THURSDAY! I mentioned that the Packers are relegation-level against the run. It’s a different story against the pass. The Packers are allowing only 13 DraftKings points per game to opposing QB. Sounds good, right? Well, it’s SO good that Ryan Tannehill is also AVERAGING 13 DraftKings points per game.

Tannehill is incapable of carrying a team with his arm. The Packers will look to force him to put the ball in the air. I’m guessing it won’t end well. Sign me up for a Packers defensive score in this one.

Other Options

If you have to roster a Packers RB (I think it will be a good idea late when the Pack are up big), the answer is Aaron Jones. AJ Dillon has just one touchdown on the season, and we all know his lack of pass-catching upside.

The ULTIMATE leverage play here is Allen Lazard. Bonus spot, whatever you want. Prior to Watson’s breakout (keep in mind he still only had four catches), Lazard was the guy. He was coming off of six straight games with at least 11.7 DraftKings points. A trio of Rodgers/Watson/Lazard looks mighty tasty here.

I was one of the people who bought in on Treylon Burks in season-long, and I’d do it again. He has all the tools to be successful. Well, aside from a competent QB. But other than that, Burks is a solid flier in this one.

If the Titans are able to control the clock…or IF (god forbid) Derrick Henry gets injured, Dontrell Hillyard is your guy. He has a floor of about 1.2 fantasy points, but the Titans know what they have to do here. I think he’s a reasonable GPP option if you’re doing MME.

Deep GPP flier of the day belongs to Samori Toure. His role has diminished, but with Cobb and Doubs still out, he will likely see a few snaps. He had 3-71-1 on eight targets over a two week span before last week.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 10 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Vegas isn’t expecting this Monday Night Football contest to be close (Philly is favored by 11), but I’m excited about this one. I can see a path to a competitive game here, and while that isn’t the likeliest of scenarios, it can happen. Taylor Heinecke is under center for this one, not perennial loser Carson Wentz. Washington’s offense is MUCH less offensive (get it?) with Taylor at the helm. Let’s smash this one!

Captain/MVP Plays

Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($18,300 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

The top player in this game is also the top option in the bonus spot. No analysis is necessary, but I’ll send some your way anyway. Hurts has been the model of consistency this season, posting 21+ DraftKings points in six of eight games. His low this season? 16.9 against Dallas. Not too shabby.

This matchup will be a good deal easier for him than that one was. He already served up a beatdown on this defense in Week 3, completing 22/35 passes for 340 yards and a trio of scores. The 30.9 DraftKings points he posted in that contest was his second-highest on the season thus far.

Washington has allowed 16 touchdown passes already in 2022. Hurts has an elite floor and ceiling, and the Eagles are favored by 11 here. What more can you ask for?

Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Yes, Terry McLaurin is more of a deep threat. Yes, his upside is higher. Samuel’s salary is far too cheap for this matchup. The Eagles have been stout defensively this season, but are middle of the pack (18th) against the pass. Samuel has the luxury of being involved in the running game as well, which raises his floor and ceiling together.

He has 10 rushes and 16 targets over the last three games, and Washington will need to get creative to keep this one close. I’m expecting Samuel to be the recipient of some of those creative plays. Jahan Dotson is returning here (more on him later), but I’m still a fan of the former Buckeye as a leverage play in the bonus spot.

AJ Brown, Eagles ($15,900 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

Brown is one of only a handful of WR who have an argument to be the among the best in the game. He is a matchup nightmare, and already posted a 5/85/1 line on 10 targets in the first matchup. Brown has found the end zone five times in the last three weeks, totaling 282 yards and 24 targets.

He is the clear top option for the Eagles, and DeVonta Smith has been very inconsistent. I prefer Hurts here, and will make him my priority, but Brown needs to be considered also. Smith had his best game of the season against Washington in Week 3. I expect ownership to reflect that monster 8/169/1 game more than it rightfully should.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Joey Slye, Commanders ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

There are few slates where I want to make a kicker a priority, but this is one of them. There is almost no wind in the forecast, and the Commanders struggle to finish drives. Slye should be a mainstay in your lineups even if you expect the Washington offense to truly keep pace with the Eagles tonight.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders ($5,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Dotson is finally back, and I’m stoked to play him here. I expect him to be featured in the offense, and Heinecke to be throwing a lot. The Eagles are huge favorites and are tougher against the run. Dotson was fantastic in his four games thus far, posting 13+ DraftKings points in three of four. That game just so happened to come against these same Eagles, but once again, that game came with Carson Wentz ruining everything.

DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($8,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

I mentioned above about ownership funneling toward Smith as a result of his monster game Week 3 in the first meeting. That doesn’t mean I don’t want a part of Smith here. When Smith and Hurts get into a groove, watch out. He has had two games with 11+ targets this season. If this game ends up a shootout (there is a real chance, you heard it here first), a Hurts/Brown/Smith stack could pay huge dividends.

Other Options

I’m never going to talk you out of playing Terry McLaurin, and he has a high ceiling as well. If the Eagles score at will, all the passing options for Washington could go off.

I’m not opposed to Jake Elliott here, but I lean more toward Slye. Elliott has made more than one field goal exactly ONE time this season. I’ll pass.

Miles Sanders will likely see volume as he does, but I’m generally not a fan of his upside with Hurts being so aggressive near the goal line.

Listen, Taylor Heinecke is a pretty decent QB. I think he has a solid game here, and needs to be in some of your lineups.

If you’re looking for a home run play, mine here is Dyami Brown. He will likely play very few snaps, but he could see a deep shot or two in the right spot.

Antonio Gibson isn’t a bad play here, but he isn’t a player I’m excited about. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling, and I hate the matchup. I’ll stick with the pass-catchers.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 10 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Wildly enough, the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Falcons and Panthers has…playoff implications? Somehow, both are still alive (the Panthers are only mathematically alive) in the pathetic NFC South race, and this one should be entertaining. The Falcons are favored by a field goal, and we have a total right around 44 points in this one. It has been a Jekyll and Hyde season for the Falcons. They blew out the 49ers, then turned right back around and got dominated by the Bengals. These two faced off two weeks ago, and the NFL ruined the game with their dumb taunting rules. Let’s enjoy what should be a fun TNF showdown game and make some cash!

Captain/MVP Plays

Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons ($17,700 DraftKings, $14,000 FanDuel)

DraftKings wasted no time jumping Patterson up to the top of the salaries for this one, but FanDuel is taking their time. While there is zero chance that Patterson (or anyone else) matches Joe Mixon’s output last week, C-Patt is in a great spot here. Carolina has allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to opposing RB this season (much due to Mixon).

Patterson played only 39% of the snaps in his return from injury, but I’m expecting that number to rise here in this one. A short week will likely prevent his snap count from rising in a huge way, but that doesn’t worry me. He turned 14 touches into 18.3 DraftKings points, including a pair of trips to the end zone. I’m not quite expecting the 71 points we saw in this matchup a few weeks ago, but neither defense is scaring anyone. Get your C-Patt shares!

DJ Moore, Panthers ($13,800 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

This looks like the perfect time to jump back on the DJ Moore bandwagon. Last week was a complete disaster for PJ Walker and the Panthers. Walker completed three passes (for nine yards) to his team, and two passes to the Bengals. Moore was a non-factor, and didn’t see much action late as the Panthers were down by 35.

I have no interest in Walker here, as his leash will be incredibly short with both Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold healthy. Regardless, the Atlanta secondary is an absolute dumpster fire. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed FIFTY-TWO points per game to opposing WR. The Panthers are going nowhere anytime soon, and neither is DJ Moore. The team made it clear that he is the cornerstone of the franchise now, and he will certainly see looks here. I’m all aboard, regardless of who is under center.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($10,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

Pitts is the most talented player in the NFL who gets the least amount of opportunities. That said, he has seen 16 targets over the last two weeks, totaling 7/107/1. The Falcons still run the ball more than any team aside from the Bears, but Pitts will get some looks here. He had a solid game against them a few weeks ago (5/80/1).

Pitts is a frustrating player to roster in any format, and his floor is much, much lower than it likely should be for a player of his talent. Despite throwing a total of 27 times against the 49ers and Bengals, Mariota has averaged 25.5 pass attempts over the last two weeks. If Atlanta wants to stay alive and possibly pull off the improbable in this division, this game is a must. After being gifted a win due to two missed kicks and a complete failure by the NFL, they need to take advantage.

Riddle me this though…DJ Moore gets a game-altering penalty for taking off his helmet (off the field of play). Travis Kelce not only removes his helmet, but angrily slams it to the turf throwing it 10+ yards. One is penalized, one is not. The NFL bias and inconsistency is a joke. Enough about that though…

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Terrance Marshall Jr., Panthers ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

The former LSU Tiger is finally making a name for himself in the NFL. He has 12.7 and 14.3 DraftKings points over his last two games. He has seen 15 targets over that span as well. While the targets can’t be relied on to be accurate, regardless of who is under center, the potential is there.

I mentioned above how awful the Atlanta secondary has been of late. I still have little to no faith in PJ Walker, or either of the failed journeymen behind him. However, volume is king, and Marshall will continue to get looks here.

Chuba Hubbard, Panthers ($5,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Hubbard looks to be ready to return to action this week, and it’s a good spot for him. I feel like a broken record talking about the inconsistencies at the QB position for Carolina. However, both Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman have shown flashes in the backfield.

Hubbard’s last appearance led to 11 touches for 73 yards and a score. He should step right back into a close timeshare with Foreman in this one. The committee here will cap any upside for Carolina backs, but his price is more than reasonable here.

Drake London, Falcons ($8,200 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Add London to the list of Falcons players with elite upside who are simply dying in this run-first offense. He could use a traditional QB under center. Regardless, London is among the best rookies in the NFL, and showed his upside early this season.

I’m banking on a bounceback here for London. The opportunities have been there the last few weeks, as he has seen 12 looks over a two-week period. Call it a hunch. He’s going to break a long touchdown and post a big total here.

Other Options

With Chuba Hubbard back in the mix, everyone will look away from Raheem Blackshear. He had nine touches last week, and totaled 53 yards and a score. He could still see some work on passing downs, and he is fairly cheap. Decent pivot with a low floor but touchdown upside.

Both kickers are in play here, but I prefer Younghoe Koo. Their previous matchup aside, neither offense has done much. If we see some stalled drives, it could be a kicker kind of night.

With the uncertainty under center for the Panthers, I think this could be a spot to take a shot on Sam Darnold if you’re doing MME. Baker Mayfield came in against the Bengals backups and played decent, but I’m not putting much stock into that. The Panthers have seen what Mayfield can (can’t) do, and while Darnold inspires very little confidence…he could see a shot if Walker struggles again. Just to be clear, I’m talking about maybe 2-3% of your lineups if mass-entering. It is most likely you will get a full zero.

Shi Smith played on 80% of the offensive snaps last week, and didn’t do much (1/20 on two targets). However, that sort of opportunity makes him a play to consider if you’re diving deep.

Both of these defenses are absolutely dog water (my kids never stop with that one), but I’d lean toward Atlanta if you’re taking a shot with one. The Panthers QBs are much more turnover-prone.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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