RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 7 days ago
RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 7 days ago
Daily Fantasy SportsPGAPremium PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship Brian Tulloch 3 years ago written by Brian Tulloch In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sanderson Farms Championship and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Relatively weak field ... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Fortinet Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi It’s the start of a new PGA TOUR season and our PGA DFS picks will help us find you some winning teams at the Fortinet Championship!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Full tournament field of 150 golfers, including some elite playersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesNot a stacked PGA DFS field, but some new faces with tour cards are ready to compete!The course: Silverado CC (North Course) in Napa, CAPar 72: 7,166 yards – redesigned by Johnny MillerSmaller poa annua greens (some Bentgrass mixed in) will play fast this weekShorter course with some tight fairways that longer hitters may be able to dominateGettable par 5s in the 550-600 range, some shorter par 4sDefending champion: Stewart Cink (-21)Clear skies expected this week, early starters could have advantage because of rain/moisture shortageFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass) Par 5s Gained (550-600), Proximity from 75-150 yardsThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $12,100) – Rahm is the best and most expensive golfer in the field, a historic 3-1 favorite to win, the top golfer in my model, and a must-own DFS play this week. When I really like a player to run away with a tournament despite him being the obvious chalk, my goal is to double the field’s projected PGA DFS ownership. So I’ll probably come in around 50% or more with my Rahmbo exposure this week.Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000) – I may not have big shares of Matsuyama (second overall on my model) this week, simply because it’ll be hard to fit both him and Rahm without going stars-and-scrubs, but he’ll be a staple of my non-Rahm lineups and should fare well based on his elite performance in the focus stat categories (SG: APP, Bob%, Par 5s: 550-600).Also consider: Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Kevin Na (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,200) – I’m intrigued by the excellent SG: OTT numbers for Munoz, both here at Silverado and over his past 36 rounds, and getting it in good position off the tee should yield some good scoring opportunities for the Colombian pro and PGS DFS standout. He’s played steady golf in his last four tournaments and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.Cameron Champ (DK $9,000) – Champ won here in 2019 after missing the cut in 2017 and finishing T25 in 2018. It’s a venue he likes and for that reason we can throw out the poor SG:APP rating (112th in the field over his past 36 rounds) a bit. He ranks third in SG: OTT (and first in the field in that category at this venue) and should have an easy time with these par 5s.Charley Hoffman (DK 8,800) – Hoffman could be a great play this week, as he’s third overall on my mixed model despite a spotty course history. We’ve seen Hoffman surprise before, and he’s almost never popular even when he’s striking it well. I’d probably limit my ownership in this event to GPPs, but there’s plenty of birdie-making upside with the Hoff.Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900) – Grillo makes a lot of sense as a high-upside, somewhat risky PGA DFS play considering how badly his putter can let him down. He’s No. 1 overall in the field in SG:APP over his last 36 rounds and fifth overall in my mixed model. I’ll be overweight with my exposure in GPPs.Maverick McNealy (DK $8,600) – Both Sia and I are fans of how McNealy can make birdies in bunches, and while the ball-striking numbers – both recently and on this golf course – have been lacking, this could be the year he breaks through at Silverado with a Top 15 finish. He’s No. 21 overall in my mixed model, even accounting for the relatively poor course history.Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – Ghim debuted here last season with a T14, and he’s certainly got the game to play well at Silverado again. He pounds it off the tee and is eighth overall in my mixed model. While he does have some accuracy issues and is far from the tour’s best putter, he’s one of my favorite PGA DFS GPP plays this week.Also consider: Harold Varner (Cash), Chez Reavie (Cash), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore (GPP), Adam Hadwin (GPP), Sepp Straka, Brian Stuard, Harry Higgs (GPP)Value Golfers (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Patton Kizzire (DK $7,500) – Kizzire is another hit-or-miss PGA DFS GPP play with a dynamic game and erratic tee ball game. He’s long enough that he can occasionally hit less-than-driver and still be fine, but he’s had some difficulty at Silverado in his last three tries (all MCs) after finishing second to Brendan Steele in 2016. I’ll have some exposure in large-field GPPs, but I don’t think I can take the plunge in single-entry or cash.Ryan Moore (DK $7,500) – I’d normally be pretty averse to Ryan Moore because he’s burned me a few times before, but he’s had some solid finishes at Silverado (including a T2 in 2018) and could be a decent low-owned play in GPPs. He’s No. 10 overall in my mixed model and his numbers across this week’s focus stats don’t show any glaring weaknesses.Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – Steele won this event two years in a row (2016-17) and will likely be more popular than usual because of it. But he’s a consistent player who hits it straight off the tee, thrives in the California venues and doesn’t miss cuts here (seven in a row).Adam Schenk (DK $7,300) – This is where things start to get a little bit risky, so I’d steer clear of Schenk and the next few guys in cash games. He’s another player that Sia and I both like this week, and he ranks 16th on my model behind some decent putting and birdie numbers. Hitting good drives at this venue has historically ben a struggle, but his SG:OTT numbers have been better lately and he’s got a T14 to his credit here in 2018.Hank Lebioda (DK $7,100) – Hammerin’ Hank comes in at No. 23 in my model and is a huge risk since he’s missed the cut twice in three attempts at Silverado. But I’m willing to give him a shot in a few GPPs based on his ability to make birdies and the T44 he notched here in 2019.Luke List (DK $7,100) – Sia wrote up newcomer Chad Ramey (and not Lebioda or List – two guys he normally loves), so I’ll take up the mantle and tout them. List can really stink it up with his putter, but he’s No. 11 on my model this week and seems to have a decent handle on this venue, with a T4 in 2018 and two other Top 40s in previous appearances. His ball-striking and Par 5 dominance are quite attractive in this field.Chesson Hadley (DK $7,000) – He can’t be the Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) again because he’s not under $7K, but he’s exactly the type of golfer we target in GPPs for his upside when he’s hitting it good off the tee, a huge advantage on this course, where he’s played very well (T14, T23, T87, T3 in his last four tries at Silverado).Cameron Percy (DK $6,800) – Percy has a T23 and T7 in his last two starts in Napa and just eats up the par 5s here. He’s going to be a huge piece of my stars-and-scrubs builds and could end up being my BBB if he lands under 5% ownership.More value golfers to consider: Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox (GPP), Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Sam Ryder, Kyle Stanley, Adam Long (GPP)Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):Mark Hubbard (DK $6,500) – Hubbard is No. 25 in my model and probably the best PGA DFS golfer you can roster at $6,500 or under this week based on his BoB% and putting numbers, when combined with relatively decent ball-striking. His SG: OTT numbers are his biggest weakness, but at this price there’s always a weakness.Danny Lee (DK $6,400) – I don’t have a ton of interest in the punts this week, but Lee is worth a look in large-field GPPS and in your “scrubs” pieces based on decent overall numbers and some excellent finishes here (T10 in 2018). Don’t go overboard with your exposure to this risky but dynamic player.Paul Barjon (DK $6,200) – Barjon is popping at No. 22 in my mixed model – the only golfer under $6,500 in my top 25. The biggest knock is his lack of PGA Tour experience and course history at this venue, where he’s making his debut. But I like PGA DFS guys who hit it solid off the tee and have putters that come alive and make birdies.Additional GPP punts: Michael Gligic, Dylan Wu, Beau Hossler, Curtis Thompson 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at Liberty National jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Smaller tournament field of top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup pointsCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesStacked playoff field with lots on the lineThe course: Liberty National (Rotating venue with Boston)Par 71: 7,410 yards – designed by Robert E. Cupp and Tom KiteLinks-style except for greens – and right on the Hudson River in NJ/NY areaSmaller but fast A-4 Bentgrass greens that really benefit guys who prefer that surfaceT2G efficiency required hereForm seems to be important based on previous winnersOver 31% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, but TOUR average is only around 23%Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (-30 at TPC Boston)2019 Champ (@ Liberty National): Patrick Reed (-16) over Abraham Ancer (-15)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey AvoidanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor HovlandMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell HenleyValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds. Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such a watered-down field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfersOnly third time playing this PGA event, so still not much course history36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendThe course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)7,431 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consultBentgrass GreensCourse features 27 water hazards and 72 sand trapsPast performance here indicates some correlation with Rocket Mortgage performanceBall-striker’s course2020 Defending champ: Michael Thompson at -19 (Matthew Wolff won in 2019 at -21)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600),The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – If DJ’s game is on, he could walk away with this tournament, as it’s a gettable track that will yield tons of birdies and eagles. He also prefers putting on Bentgrass, so there’s that. If we can find enough value in the $7K range this week – and I think we can – we shouldn’t shy away from him in single-entry GPPs.Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – Finau is expensive this week, but he belongs in this elite company as he and the guys north of $10K are head-and-shoulders ahead of the field in terms of talent. He’s a staple of my builds and I’ll be coming in around double the projected field ownership.Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – This is where the drop-off starts in terms of risk, and Garcia’s is slightly mitigated by the fact that putter isn’t the most important club in the bag this week. I like him a tad better on Bermuda, but Garcia should be able to contend for a win in this watered-down field.Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – He’s GPP only, but as Joel points out in the Breakdown, we need to be ready to pivot in large-field GPP if ownership gets out of control. There’s some chatter that his ball-striking is really coming into form and that’s a huge plus heading into a tournament where he’s already won.Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Cameron TringaleMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,300) – Grillo sticks out as a high-upside, medium-risk play with solid form coming in. In his Initial Picks article, Sia points out that Grillo was a T3 here last year, and that’s exactly why I’m drawn to the Argentinian despite the increase in salary from what we’re used to for Emiliano.Cameron Davis (DK $9,200) – He won the Rocket Mortgage at the start of the month, and the correlation makes me interested in him in GPPs. Davis also finished T12 here last year, so there’s a lot to like about the strides he’s made in 2021, even if he’s not the most consistent player above $9K.Keegan Bradley (DK $8,800) – Bradley struggles with the outer, but he’s one of the best ball strikers around and this could be a great spot for a bounce back. I’d feel more safe about cash game use if his price was a little lower, but he might make my single-entry team for his upside in this field.Stewart Cink (DK $8,700) – Cink is playing some of the best golf of his career and is woefully underpriced given the strength of this field. Safe for cash, but he could get popular if you’re targeting him for GPPs.Maverick McNealy (DK $8,400) – One of our favorite birdie-fest golfers, McNealy is a guy who I’ll be overweight on regardless of his final ownership projections. This is his first run at the TPC Twin Cities, but I’m buying.Luke List (DK $8,100) – List has struck the ball well in 2021 and posted consecutive top five finishes once his newborn son was deemed healthy. The veteran also led the field last week in SG: T2G and ranks No. 22 on tour in that metric. You can do a lot worse in PGA DFS than picking this guy.Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – One of these weeks, the talented Ghim is going to put together four good rounds and win a PGA Tour event. He’s made three straight cuts after an MC at the memorial but was T14 the week before at the Charles Schwab. Ghim isn’t safe, but he could be worth the risk.Chris Kirk (DK $7,900) – This is exactly the kind of PGA DFS tournament where you wonder why you didn’t go back to Kirk, who finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage before last week’s MC at the Open Championship. A much-improved golfer in 2021, I’m banking on a better finish than the T41 he posted at the 3M last year.Richy Werenski (DK $7,600) – A high-risk GPP option I’ll be using in about 2-3 out of 20 lineups, Werenski can get on a roll fast and plant himself on the leaderboard with the best of the mid-range golfers. He’s worth another look at this event, where he finished T3 last year.Also consider: Robert MacIntyre, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Herbert, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Gary Woodland, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Mito PereiraValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,500) – Vegas checks a few important boxes this week, and his weaknesses are mitigated by the layout and putting surfaces. I like Vegas on soft courses you can attack (T11 at the John Deere), and this is certainly one of those.Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,400) – Van Rooyen was actually $8,800 in this event last year, way more expensive than both Grillo and Tringale, who were both in the low-to-mid-$7K range and are now over $9K. Sure, it’s been a wild year, but EVR still has some upside, especially with SG: Putting (where he ranks No. 105 on Tour) not as important here.Matt Kuchar (DK $7,300) – The last birdie-fest course he played was at the AT&T Byron Nelson, when he finished T17 at -16. I really like his chances at a top 20 here and his ownership should stay relatively low.Kyle Stanley (DK $7,300) –Like Vegas, Stanley makes sense for courses you can go after and post lots of birdies, and I’m intrigued by the still-depressed price despite seven straight made cuts. The upside is lacking a bit, but he seems fine for a last piece in more balanced builds where we want to stay away from the sub-$7K golfers.Bo Hoag (DK $7,000) – The pickings get slim once we get down to $7K, but I’ve got plenty of interest in Hoag this week. He posted a T12 here last year and is coming in after a T11 at the Barbasol and three straight made cuts (T47 at the John Deere, T33 at the Rocket Mortgage).Kevin Tway (DK $6,600) – The (Friday) birthday narrative has been discussed ad nauseum on the WinDaily writers text message thread, and again in the Breakdown. This is one of the only venues where Tway plays well, so he’s worth considering at this price.More value golfers for GPPs: Troy Merritt, Michael Thompson, Adam Schenk, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Pat Perez, Sepp Straka, Tom Lewis (GPP), Adam Long (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Satoshi Kodaira (DK $6,500) – Kodaira hurt a lot of folks at high ownership when he was the DFS darling bargain play a couple weeks ago, but he played well at the Barbasol last week (T20). He also made the cut here in 2019 and should do so again. The upside is there at this price point.Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – BB was my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) at the John Deere, and he ruined a great start (67 in round 1) with a 72 on Friday that knocked him out of the weekend. We’ll go back to the well this week, as I think he should fare well here, where he’s made the cut in both tries.Robbie Shelton (DK $6,500) – He’s been bad this July, with three straight MCs, but I like his bounce-back chances on a course where he’s had success before (T3 last year). Again – he’s a GPP-only play and I might use him in up to 3/20 lineups.Additional punts: Josh Teator, Michael Gligic, Fabian Gomez, Michael Gellerman 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS Course Notes:Decent top-end in a full field of 156 golfers, but not an elite group36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendCanceled in 2020 due to COVID-192019 (and 2018) champion: Paul Casey (-8 in ’19; -10 in ’18)The course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbour, FL)Par 71: 7,340 yardsBermuda greensTough track that played easier before 2015 renovations and a 2007 date changeFive par 3s, four par 5sTight fairways, water in play on 11 of 18 holesSolid tee-to-green golf a mustAVOID THE SNAKE PIT (Holes 16-18 can bit you… and poison a victory with a multi-stroke swing come Sunday)Some Friday afternoon wind will bump up (10-14 MPH) but weather looks great in the low 80s with no rain forecastedFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: T2G, Par 3s Gained: 200-225, SG: Short Game, Par 4s Gained: 400-450, Good Drives GainedThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15. Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)Mid-Range Golfers (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)Value Plays (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Zurich Classic of New Orleans jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this PGA DFS picks column, we’re looking for all the right team at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and helping you navigate this team event!PGA DFS Course Notes:Solid field of 160 golfers (80 teams)Eight players out of the world top 20 teeing it up this weekOnly one teammate per team is allowed on your DK lineup36-hole Cut: Top 35 teams and ties play the weekend2019 champion: Jon Rahm/Ryan PalmerThe course: TPC Louisiana (Pete Dye design)Par 72: 7,425 yardsSmall TifEagle Bermuda greensIron play again an emphasis at these tough par 4sFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTTThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $11,000 and up):Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (DK $11,700) – I doubt these golfers will find much trouble off the tee and they look like the best combo of ball-striking and ability to capitalize on opportunities. Cantlay hasn’t played well recently, but in a team event, it’s easy to throw that out and look at the fact that both of these players are in the OWGR Top 10, and have the most combined talent in the field.John Rahm/Ryan Palmer (DK $11,700) – They mastered this format last year, and Ryan Palmer lines up as a good proximity golfer from outside 200 yards (he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour). Combine their past success with Rahm’s overall talent and ability and you could have another winning combo in New Orleans. They’re a solid play in all formats.Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (DK $11,100) – These two were President’s Cup teammates and they both play the same ball – which is a bonus when they get to alternate stroke team play. Smith has shown an affinity for Pete Dye course and ranks fifth in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana, where he was a part of the winning team in 2017 alongside Jonas Blixt. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities every day for this team, which has a shot at winning.Also consider: Collin Morikawa/Matthew Wolff (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $9,500 to $10,900):Scottie Scheffler/Bubba Watson (DK $10,900) – I have no doubts about the team chemistry with these two birdie-makers, and while Watson has struggled in recent weeks, he’s a team player who seems to be more at ease when he’s outside his head. Scheffler’s ability to provide ample scoring opportunities will be a welcome sight for Bubba.Tyrrell Hatton/Danny Willett (DK $10,300) – The English pair complement each other’s games quite well, with Hatton’s ball-striking and Willett’s putting possibly providing a winning combination of skill sets. I may not be overweight on the field if they get popular, but I’ll have shares. Chris Kirk/Brendan Todd (DK $10,100) – A team that might end up making my single entry GPP lineups, Kirk/Todd (we can call them the UGA connection as former Georgia Bulldogs) should make the cut and give us some possible upside if they can get hot with the putters. They’ll be in play on these holes and we know Todd likes the small Bermuda greens and these types of “short-game forward” setups.Max Homa/Talor Gooch (DK $9,900) – Both players can make birdies in bunches and that’s a good thing in team play. It’ll be easier to avoid big numbers that plague these golfers occasionally, and the sub-$10K tag is alluring in such a tight pricing format. The team fares well in combined models and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.Victor Hovland/Kristoffer Ventura (DK $9,700) – They played together at Oklahoma State and a quick review of the metrics indicates another complementary pairing here. Hovland ranks at or near the top of the field in SG:OTT, Opps Gained and BoB%, while Ventura is one of the better putters on tour, ranking well overall and on Bermuda. This could be a sneaky team.Also consider: Tony Finau/Cameron Champ, Billy Horschel/Sam BurnsValue PGA DFS (DK $8,000 to $9,400):Brendan Steele/Keegan Bradley (DK $9,300) – Steele is the better putter and longer driver, and Bradley the better ball-striker, and Steele had a Top 10 at this event in 2018. It’s not an exciting team, but one that might be lingering come Sunday and make a run at a Top 5.Thomas Pieters/Tom Lewis (DK $9,200) –Another EURO connection that combines experience and form (Pieters) with birdie-making and motivation (Lewis). Lewis wants his PGA Tour card and Pieters is motivated in his own right – looking for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. Sia had them in his initial picks and I’m firmly aboard this pairing as well.Lucas Glover/Chez Reavie (DK $8,800) – I’m most worried about this group’s putting statistics, which lag far behind the ball-striking metrics, but that tends to get mitigated a bit in team events, when two heads are usually better than one of reading putts and bouncing back from the bad holes.Jason Kokrak/Pat Perez (DK $8,300) – Both of these golfers are PGA Tour “nice guys” who have had mixed results in 2020-21, with Perez hitting a bit of a plateau and Kokrak breaking through with his first PGA Tour win in October. If DK gave out points for good vibes, they’d be priced even higher, but I’m loving the discount in the value range.Cameron Tringale/Roberto Castro (DK $8,000) – Tringale, who’s had a solid 2020-21 season, is third on my model and while Roberto Castro struggles with consistent play, he’s No. 18 in the field for SG:APP at this golf course. I’m liking the price and upside, but it’s risky in single-entry GPP.More value golfers to consider: Louis Oosthuizen/Charl Schwartzel, Erik van Rooyen/Wyndham Clark, Kevin Kisner/Scott Brown, Doug Ghim/Justin Suh Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $7,900 and under):Matthew NeSmith/Chase Seiffert (DK $7,500) – This team will be very chalky, and they seem to be mispriced considering the talent level. They’re on a bit of a pricing island and seem to be one of the only exciting options between $7-8K.Richy Werenski/Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – I’m glad that Joel brought these two (and Michael Thompson/Will Gordon) up in the Breakdown. Both teams caught my eye looking for cheap options that have upside, and I like the ability of Werenski/Uihlein to make a bunch of birdies in best ball and outperform their affordable salary.Scott Piercy/Ashkay Bhatia (DK $6,900) – It’s kind of an off-the-wall play considering the differing general makeup of these two golfers, but they could surprise some folks in the first couple of days, when they seem to play their best golf. The opportunities should be there, and Piercy won with Horschel in 2018, so they’re worth a look in GPPs.Bo Hoag/Wes Roach (DK $6,300) – It’s a dart throw for sure,because neither of these players is known for their consistency, but Hoag projects well for this golf course on the mixed model (No. 36 overall) and Roach ranks No. 22 in the field for SG:APP at TPC Louisiana. Additional GPP punts: Michael Thompson/Will Gordon (GPP), Sepp Straka/Josh Teator, Tom Hoge/Beau Hossler (GPP), Roger Sloan/Aaron Baddeley, James Hahn/Martin Trainer 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS Course Notes:Solid field of 136 golfers missing only a few big names36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendLast year’s champion: Webb SimpsonThe course: Harbour Town Golf Links (Pete Dye design; Hilton Head Island, SC)Par 71: 7,121 yardsTifEagle Bermuda greensDriving it great not important – because some spots in rough provide fine scoring opportunitiesSmall greens that nobody hits with regularity makes approach and putting key statsCoastal breezes can affect play and reach gale forceLast year’s event had almost no wind, so scores were much lower than usualFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Around the Green, Fairways Gained, Good Drives Gained, Proximity (150-200)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,600) – DJ is a South Carolina-born golfer who went to college in Myrtle Beach (Coastal Carolina), but this isn’t his type of golf course. Still – even though he’s fared poorly here in the past and doesn’t look too appealing on my model (No. 16), he can’t be completely ignored. The missed cut at the Masters and his relatively poor course history should keep him from higher ownership, so I might take a shot in some GPPs.Webb Simpson (DK $11,000) – Simpson is the defending champion at Harbour Town and the chalkiest golfer on the board this week, but I don’t think I can endorse a full fade because he’s just so good on the greens – and his course history is quite impressive (no worse than T16 in his last four appearances here). He was T12 at the Masters last week and is a solid bet for a top 10 at the RBC – he just might not be necessary to roster in GPPs if he doesn’t crack the Top 5.Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – His approach play is second-to-none on tour, he managed to keep it together for a T18 at Augusta last week, and he most recently won in February at the WGC-Workday. Morikawa is projected to be the third-highest owned golfer this week and while there is some merit to a fade considering his T64 finish here during a stretch of poor play in 2020, he’s No. 7 overall on my model and a tough player to get away from in PGS DFS when you consider the metric data.Daniel Berger (DK $10,000) – Berger is No. 2 overall on my model and his ownership should come in well under Simpson’s – making him a fine single-entry and large-field GPP alterative. He’s only played here twice, but finished T33 in 2019 and T3 in 2020 – so it’s clear he likes the venue and the course layout. Berger doesn’t handle al the Pete Dye courses as well as he does this one, but I’m seriously considering him to be the “spend up” golfer in my core of single-entry builds.Also consider: Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Cameron Smith (GPP), Will Zalatoris, Tyrrell Hatton (Cash)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Paul Casey (DK $9,200) – His last performance of note at the RBC Heritage was way back in 2014, when he finished T18, and since then he’s had a couple of missed cuts (2016 & 2018). But my mixed model (fourth overall) and the course layout are pointing in his direction this week, especially considering his SG:APP numbers in recent play. Course history hounds might stay away, but there’s a chance he garners ownership because of name recognition and recency bias.Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,100) – The guy calls this his “favorite place in the world” and he really wants this to be the event where he gets his first win – if not at a major. I really like Fitzpatrick’s chances at bouncing back from his T34 at the Masters with another top 10 finish this week, as he’s shown improvement at this venue over the past few years and has two Top 15s in his last three tries here. He’s a great putter and despite some occasionally shaky approach play from 175-200, ranks 17th in my model, just behind DJ. I won’t be all-in on ownership, but I’ll be slightly ahead of the field, probably around 20-25%.Abraham Ancer (DK $8,900) – Ancer ranks No. 6 overall on my model this week and finished solo second here in 2020, just one stroke behind Simpson. Both will be chalky, but he comes at a huge discount from the defending champion and offers almost as much upside with his solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches. If there’s an area where he can’t match Webb, it’s on the greens.Shane Lowry (DK $8,500) – The Irishman is Stick’s pick to win the event and I couldn’t have been more elated when he announced that during the breakdown video – especially after he lauded Hideki Matsuyama last week before the Japanese sensation won the Masters. Lowry is No. 21 overall on my model, has been striking the ball very well lately, and has a T3 here in 2019. His ownership isn’t expected to surpass 10%, and there’s plenty of upside here compared to most of the other players in the mid range.Harris English (DK $8,400) – English had a rough patch of two MCs at the Farmers and Waste Management, and a final round 80 at the WGC-Workday put him near the caboose of the no-cut event in solo 66th place. But before that he had some solid finishes, and since the WGC event he’s finished T26 (API at Bay Hill) and T21 (Masters). This is a guy you want to jump on as he starts rounding into form.Si Woo Kim (DK $7,900) – I loved him last week at the Masters and he rewarded me with a T12 – a solid finish for his price and ownership level. My concern this week is that he might get a little too popular on the heels of that performance, as he’s still priced under $8K and his name is fresh in the minds of the leaderboard watchers. But if we’re choosing between him and Charley Hoffman (also just under $8K and projected for a similar ownership percentage), I’ll take Si Woo all day.Russell Henley (DK $7,900) – The breakdown boys danced around the topic of Henley, but I’ll take my stand regardless of his spotty course history (his last two tries here are MCs), largely because he fares extremely well in my mixed model (third overall). Another knock on Henley from a DFS perspective is an inflated ownership projection that currently puts him as the ninth most popular play in the field.Also consider: Corey Conners (Cash), Tommy Fleetwood (GPP), Brian Harman, Kevin Na (GPP), Matt Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Brandon Grace, Ian PoulterValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Chris Kirk (DK $7,500) – We have a general consensus among the WinDaily writers that Kirk looks like a fine play for most formats this week in DFS, though his ownership seems to be creeping up as folks ogle his string of made cuts since the Waste Management and his three Top 10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. He’s okay for single-entry and cash games and I’ll have shares right around 10-15% in my GPP builds.Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,500) – Munoz is a solid shotmaker and he’s coming off a somewhat disappointing week at Augusta, where he placed T40 after a T9 finish at the Valero Open. I’d probably steer clear in cash games, but he’s fine for large-field GPPs and should stay below the 5% ownership threshold. I’ll be giving him a look, even if I prefer the discount offered by the next couple of guys on this list.Kevin Streelman (DK $7,300) – If course history matters here (and it does), then we have to consider Streelman, who has a couple of top ten finishes in his last three appearances on Hilton Head Island. He’s a great value for all formats and Sia even staked his claim that Streelman will be the first round leader at long odds (66-1). The tour veteran is 20th overall in my model and he’ll be a staple of my GPP lineups.Michael Thompson (DK $7,200) – Thompson isn’t nearly as safe as Streelman in this range, but he’s tenth overall in my model and does offer upside – despite a relatively high projected ownership for a guy with his brand of spotty play. His popularity can be explained by three straight made cuts (including a T34 at the Masters last week) as well as a sparkling course history that includes top ten finishes in his last two appearances.J.T. Poston (DK $7,100) – He’s firmly in play as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play, and both Joel and Nick like him this week too – probably because he’s finished T8 and T6 in his last two runs here. I never like going too hard on Poston, but he’s definitely in play this qweek.Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – He’s got the “site of his marriage proposal” narrative going this week, and he’s No. 11 overall in my model. He’s a great play in all formats and on my short list for single-entry GPP consideration. He may not have the upside of Poston or Thompson, but a breakthrough is still very possible.Doug Ghim (DK $6,900) – The breakdown touched on how NeSmith might be the better play in cash games, but Ghim could be a fine PGA DFS play in this range for large-field GPPs. The youngster is a first-timer at the RBC Heritage, but he’s made 12 of his last 16 cuts and hits awesome approach shots.More value golfers to consider: Emiliano Grillo, Cameron Davis (GPP), Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Harold Varner III, Ryan Moore (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Russell Knox (GPP), Kyle Stanley (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chez Reavie, Jim FurykLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Patton Kizzire (DK $6,500) – I had a very productive PGA DFS run using Kizzire in GPPs in the 2020-21 transition in December-January, and he’s been okay if nor great since, with a T9 at the Valero ranking as his best finish since his T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s a longer hitter sprays it around a bit off the tee and doesn’t typically light the world on fire on shorter courses, but Kizzire is a verified putting demon who can get hot with the flat stick and make a boatload of birdies.Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – I usually finish up my article as I’m listening to the breakdown, and I’m very glad that Sia mentioned him as a possibly mispriced golfer in the value/punt range. Hoge is a solid T2G golfer who hits good approaches 175-200 (No. 11 in the field), and he’s a decent putter with the ability to finish in the Top 10. I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field GPPs.Scott Piercy (DK $6,300) – Piercy gets inclusion here based on his T3 finish here in 2019 and T16 in 2018, but his form in 2021 has not been great. Perhaps something clicks this week at the site of a venue where he’s had success and he can revisit some of the Top 20 form he flashed in October-November of 2020. He’s a large-field GPP play (maybe one or two lineups out of 20) with some Top 20 upside this week, but don’t go overboard.Additional GPP punts: Tom Lewis, Jason Dufner, Chesson Hadley, Danny Lee, Bo Hoag, Tyler Duncan 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.PGA DFS Course Notes:Enormous, elite field of 154 golfersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesNo 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye designPar 72 (7,189 yards)Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf coursePlays longer in March than it did in MayBermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialisLook for big scoring spreads like at Bay HillWind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge fieldFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey AvoidanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin NiemannValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds. Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie HughesLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong invitational field of 123 golfersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)Par 72 (7,466 yards)Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in playPlayed as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last yearPressure golf at its most demandingBermuda greens and fairwaysWind could play a factor this week, rain expected SaturdayFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities GainedThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae ImMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017. Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas GloverLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Farmers Insurance open and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong, full field of 152 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Marc Leishman (-15)The courses: Torrey Pines North (one of first two rounds) & South (three rounds of four)Both Par 72 (North: 7,258 South: 7,698 yards)Coastal courses so wind/elements are a factorSouth course is tougher, and a long driver helpsHarder-to-hit greensNorth: Bentgrass greens; South: Poa Annua greensFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4s: 450-500The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam BurnsValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs. Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon. Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
