DFS

A full-slate of action is ahead, with all 30 MLB teams scheduled to be in action. However, there are weather concerns in KC, CHW, TEX and MIN that will need to be watched carefully.

Stacks

White Sox: I love picking on the Orioles pitching staff, especially in a park that has been great for HRs. A major concern is the weather.

Reds: Jason Vargas and the Mets bullpen stink. Only negative factor here is a major park downgrade from Great American to Citi.

Pirates: They have to be relieved getting out of L.A. after a weekend sweep at the hands of the Dodgers. It helps going to one of the best parks to hit in all of MLB and facing one of the worst pitching staffs in the Rangers (25th ranked bullpen in terms of ERA in ’19).

Rays: Jakob Junis has not been good at home. The Royals bullpen is not good. The Rays are feeling good about themselves after winning a series at Fenway over the weekend and being comfortably in first place in the AL East. And a second Lowe was called up yesterday to bolster their lineup (highly touted prospect Nathan Lowe joins rookie slugger Brandon Lowe). Weather concerns are here, however.

Bonus Hitting Picks

First Base-Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $3,700 FD) vs. Adrian Sampson: If you are into narratives at all, this will be Bell’s first game in the stadium he went to growing up. Bell attended Jesuit College Preparatory School in nearby Dallas. Gatordade/ESPN named him the Texas High School Player of the Year when he was a senior. Against righties, the switch-hitting Bell has four HRs in 64 ABS with a .981 OPS. He is getting a massive park upgrade from PNC (26th ranked park in terms of HRs in 2018) to Globe Life (third in ’18).

Second base- Brandon Lowe ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD) vs. Jakob Junis: No major park upgrade here for Lowe. So why do I like him? Mainly because so far in 2019 Junis has struggled at home. In 16 innings at Kauffman, he has given up 22 hits, 12 earned runs, three BBs and three HRs. There is likely to be traffic on the bases for the visiting team and Lowe, with a .957 OPS and five HRs (in only 67 ABs vs. righties) will likely be a major part of it. And, as a bonus, if Junis is gone from the game early, K.C.’s bullpen ERA is ranked 26th in MLB at 5.23. As mentioned before, this is a weather trouble spot, so my other second baseman I really like and I recommend if K.C. is PPD is Kolten Wong ($4,200 DK, $3,500 FD), who excels both against righties and on the road.

Third base- Yoan Moncada ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD) vs. Andrew Cashner: Somewhat surprisingly, Guaranteed Rate Field is the second easiest park to HR in 2019 so far. Moncada has crushed righties on the young season, to the tune of six HRs in only 68 ABs and a 1.084 OPS. Cashner has already given up five dingers on the young season. Moncada has the bonus of going against the last place bullpen in terms of 2019 ERA and HRs against, an incredible 34 with the next highest bullpen only at 19!!!! Again, this game is a major weather risk.

Matt Chapman ($4,800 DK, $4,300 FD) vs. Rick Porcello- Use Chapman, who is a reverse splits batter, taking aim at the Green Monster in Fenway if the White Sox game is cancelled. On the young season, Chapman has five HRs in 76 ABs vs. righties with a 1.001 OPS.

Shortstop- Tim Anderson ($5,400 DK, $4,100 FD) vs. Andrew Cashner: I think you might be able to guess what one of my stacks is going to be (weather permitting). Anderson is killing the ball this season, but even more so against righties and at home. His OPS, respectively, against those two types are 1.150 and 1.376. Yikes. Add in four HRs in 61 ABs vs righties and four in 45 ABs at home and it easy to see why I like him. Alternate: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $3,600) vs. Sandy Alcantara. Walks are beginning to be an issue for Alcantara, with 12 in his last 20 innings. Striking out only 15 batters in that span, Alcantara is playing with fire. Look for Lindor to do some damage with men on base.

Outfield- Yasiel Puig ($3,800 DK, $3,300 FD) vs. Jason Vargas: You don’t think I can write this whole article and not pick on Vargas, can you? Puig has two HRs this young 2019 season in 16 ABs against lefties. Vargas has given up three HRS in 50 ABs against righties. Plus, Vargas is a five innings at most pitcher, meaning Puig will likely get at least two ABs against a Mets bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA.

Outfield- David Dahl ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD) vs. Jhoulys Chacin: Chacin has not impressed anyone this year, giving up seven HRs already on the young season, with three of those off the bats of lefties. Dahl, coming off an oblique injury, seems to be getting his timing back and hitting at Miller Park, which is the third easiest to hit a homer in so far in 2019, may help him as well.

Outfield- Juan Soto ($5,100 DK, $4,300 FD) vs. Adam Wainwright: If you pay attention to narratives, a feel good one in this game is that Wainwright is making his first start since adopting a son, Caleb. On the mound, the long-time Cardinal is struggling to keep the ball in the park on the road this year, giving up two jacks in only 10 innings pitched. On the other side of the ledger, Soto is averaging a dinger once every 11 ABs at home and has an OPS of .953.

Monday is a generally light day on the MLB schedule due to it being a travel day and today is no exception with nine games scheduled. All of these are the first game of new series, which can lend itself to good pitching performances.

Top-Tier Options

Zach Wheeler CIN at NYM ($8,600 FD, $9,300 DK): Not many top-tier arms are scheduled to be on the bump tonight but we don’t have to go too far back in time to see an ace in the making in Wheeler. In his last start, against a good hitting Philadelphia squad, he pitched seven innings, gave up only five hits, did not walk any batters and struck out 11. This start extended his quality start streak to three and coincided with a correction in his mechanics. Before the fix he had eight walks in his first 9.1 innings of the season. Since then, he has walked only six in 20 innings while striking out 24 batters. Also impressive is that he has gone at least six innings and 105 pitches in that three start stretch. He is working tonight in a great park for pitchers as Citi Field ranks 23rd in hits allowed in 2019 (and going back to last season it ranked 22nd in HRs and 30th, which is dead last, in runs). Now about his opponent, the Reds. They are the eighth easiest team to strike out against righties with a 24.7% strikeout rate. With a 27th ranked OPS of .648 and a 28th ranked wOBA of .278, when they do make contact and they are not doing much damage.

Middle-Tier Pitchers

Eduardo Rodriguez OAK at BOS ($8,500 FD, $9,100 DK): Dustin Pedroia a pitching guru? While he recovers from a recurring knee injury, Pedey recently taught E-Rod the grip on a new pitch, the slider. According to an MLB.com article, Rodriguez said, “Four days ago, I was talking with Pedey in the dugout and he told me, ‘Hey, do you want to throw a really good breaking ball?’ I was like, Yeah, bro, I’ve been battling to throw a breaking ball since I got here in the big leagues, since I was in the Minor Leagues. He told me throw the ball like this and hold it like that, and two days ago I started throwing it with my knee over there, and it’s funny, because the first time I threw that kind of breaking ball was today and it was working.” E-Rod said these words after a six inning start against Detroit on April 24th, one in which he gave up only two hits with three walks and seven strikeouts. If you are a believer in E-Rod sticking with this new pitch, you may like his spot at home against the Athletics. According to the same MLB.com article, “Of Rodriguez’s 90 pitches against the Tigers, 16 were sliders. Of the 16, he generated one swing and miss, two called strikes, three foul balls and two outs. And having the slider as a weapon made his other pitches more dangerous. Rodriguez induced 18 swings and misses, which means the Tigers whiffed at one of every five pitches he threw. The mix was a thing of beauty for Rodriguez, as he also threw 52 fastballs, nine cutters and 13 changeups.” Be forewarned though, the A’s hit lefties well (they strike out the fewest of any MLB team so far in 2019 against lefties, have a wOBA of .347 and have an OPS of .823 which both rank in the Top 10) and the game is at Fenway Park. A high risk, high reward play.

Nick Margevicius, SD at ATL ($6,800 FD,$7,600 DK): Another high risk, high reward play here. Yes, the Braves can hit. And they hit lefties very well too. SunTrust Park is a good place to hit HRs in (currently 13th best in 2019). All those factors are against Margevicius. However, Margevicius’s pitching style is all about pinpoint control and limiting hard contact and this makes him profile well against a Braves team that likes to mash fastballs. In his last start, Margevicius walked more than two batters for only the second time in his pro career. I would not bet on that many walks this time out against a Braves team that is middle of the pack in walk rate against lefties (10.5%). With a home run rate against him of only 3% and a line-drive rate of 23% so far in 2019, you can see he has done a good job at limiting hard hit balls. I expect him to pitch a good game against the Braves. He will need to keep the Braves off-balance with his full repertoire of pitches. Luckily, he certainly has the ability and pitch profile to do exactly that.

Dirt-Cheap Values:

Zach Davies COL at MIL ($6,400 FD, $6,800 DK): In five starts in 2019, Davies has not allowed more than two runs in any of them. He has struck out at least four batters in three of those starts. Colorado continues to be a different team on the road than compared to at home, with a team wOBA of .347 at home and .262 on the road. This may be the theme of this article, there is risk in this spot. Miller Park is no ordinary away park, ranking as one of the best to hit in all of MLB. In 2018 it was the 10th easiest park to hit a HR in, while so far in 2019 it is 4th easiest park. However, Davies knows how to pitch at home, not allowing an earned run there so far this season in 10.2 innings.

John Means, BAL at CHW ($7,000 FD, $7,000DK): Means is a revelation so far in 2019. He is a pitcher whose best pitch, and one that he throws second most often, is his changeup. Means’ changeup comes in over 11 mph slower than his fastball, which is averaging 94 mph and is thrown 54% of the time. The average MLB pitcher has a difference of 8.7 mph between his fastball and changeup. His larger than average difference keeps batters off-balance. This is indicated by his hard-hit rate, which is less than 35%. What might be even more impressive is that Means has more than a nine inch drop on his changeup. So not only does a batter have to be worried about the change of pace, but one that has tremendous movement as well. According to Kyle Glaser of Baseball America, “I was not familiar with Means until last week. A scout brought him up to me unprompted. Four days later (by complete chance) I saw him pitch at Fenway against the Red Sox. There’s something there. (The) Os have something.”

Sunday features one giant slate in the DFS world. In my mind, this makes things a bit simpler, as there are no worries about what slate to enter. The weather will feature some rain in the Northeast, but I do not think there are any concerns about cancelled games.

Top-Tier Options

Chris Sale TB at BOS ($9,200 FD, $10,000 DK) : Do you want an expensive option not for the faint of heart? Then Sale is your man! Seriously though, he has several factors working in his favor: 1) The weather. Temperatures will remain chilly at Fenway, in the upper 40s for this game, and that means the ball will not carry well. 2) The Red Sox are heavy Vegas favorites. 3) Sale’s velocity on his four-seam fastball has returned and has been in the mid 90s his last two times out. 4) Tampa is middle of the pack offensively against lefties, with a pedestrian .734 OPS with the sixth most strikeouts in the league, 74. On a slate with a dearth of expensive options, Sale is likely your best choice if you want to spend up. It is only a matter of time until Sale turns back into one of the best pitchers in the game as recent indicators point to him getting his Cy Young stuff back.

Middle-Tier Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow TB at BOS ($9,700 FD, $9,600 DK) : Look no further than Sale’s opponent on the mound for the next arm I like. Glasnow is a stud. No doubt about it. I have a feeling that in five years all of MLB will be thinking, “Wait, Tampa got Meadows AND Glasnow for Archer?” So far in 2019, he is striking out a batter an inning with less than two walks per nine innings pitched. His WHIP is 0.92 and 50% of the balls hit off him are on the ground. His FIP is 2.63 and his Line Drive percentage is only 18.4%. All signs of an ace starting pitcher. Yes, he has to go against a powerhouse Red Sox lineup but like mentioned with Sale, the weather should help him keep the ball in the park.

Domingo German NYY at SF ($9,600 FD, $9,200 DK) : The first thing I love about German here is the ballpark. Oracle is the worst, bar none, ballpark for HRs. Consistently year after year it ranks 30th out of 30 in terms of HRs. And it isn’t like the Giants are the incarnation of the ’27 Yankees. Against righties, San Francisco ranks dead last in all of MLB with an OPS of .609. They are tied with the fewest HRs hit at 14. I really do not need to get any more in-depth than this….the worst home run park against the worst home run hitting team in vs. right handers. But I will! German has four starts on the year. In three of the four starts he went at least six innings, allowed two earned runs or less and struck out at least five. Expect him to make it four out of five in all five categories in this smash spot. NOTE: I really wanted Matthew Boyd as well and will recommend him now that he is confirmed for today.

Dirt-Cheap Values:

Kyle Gibson BAL at MIN ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK) : There is no reason to stop picking on the Orioles. In Gibson’s last start against this same team at a much better hitter’s ballpark (Oriole Park at Camden Yards), he went six innings with six strikeouts, no walks and only five hits allowed. He was credited with his first win of the season in that contest. With temperatures expected to be only near 50 degrees and a moderate 10-20 mph wind blowing in from right field, you have to like Gibson’s chance at pitching a good game. As written yesterday, the Orioles lack any sort of power against righties and Gibson’s sinker ball won’t be of any help in that department.

Sonny Gray CIN at STL ($8,300 FD, $8,800 DK): If you take away Gray’s first start of the year, he has struck out at least six batters each time out. He has allowed more than three runs only once in that stretch. His advanced statistics support his terrific start to 2019, with a career high 11.31 batters struck out per nine innings pitched and a career low 2.19 walks per nine. With that many strikeouts, few walks and a 54.1% ground ball rate, he is limiting big innings and not allowing the opponent to score many runs. Isn’t that what you are looking for in a SP?

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Sonny Gray: Strikeouts over 5.5 – Let’s go back to the Sonny Gray pick from above. He has reached at least six strikeouts in all of his last four starts and St. Louis ranks 13th in MLB with 179 strikeouts against righties. The Reds used three arms from their bullpen yesterday and need Gray to go deep in this game. They do not have the benefit of an off-day tomorrow so they won’t be able to empty their bullpen.