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DFS Pitching, Monkey Knife Fight Picks – 4/28



Sunday features one giant slate in the DFS world. In my mind, this makes things a bit simpler, as there are no worries about what slate to enter. The weather will feature some rain in the Northeast, but I do not think there are any concerns about cancelled games.

Top-Tier Options

Chris Sale TB at BOS ($9,200 FD, $10,000 DK) : Do you want an expensive option not for the faint of heart? Then Sale is your man! Seriously though, he has several factors working in his favor: 1) The weather. Temperatures will remain chilly at Fenway, in the upper 40s for this game, and that means the ball will not carry well. 2) The Red Sox are heavy Vegas favorites. 3) Sale’s velocity on his four-seam fastball has returned and has been in the mid 90s his last two times out. 4) Tampa is middle of the pack offensively against lefties, with a pedestrian .734 OPS with the sixth most strikeouts in the league, 74. On a slate with a dearth of expensive options, Sale is likely your best choice if you want to spend up. It is only a matter of time until Sale turns back into one of the best pitchers in the game as recent indicators point to him getting his Cy Young stuff back.

Middle-Tier Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow TB at BOS ($9,700 FD, $9,600 DK) : Look no further than Sale’s opponent on the mound for the next arm I like. Glasnow is a stud. No doubt about it. I have a feeling that in five years all of MLB will be thinking, “Wait, Tampa got Meadows AND Glasnow for Archer?” So far in 2019, he is striking out a batter an inning with less than two walks per nine innings pitched. His WHIP is 0.92 and 50% of the balls hit off him are on the ground. His FIP is 2.63 and his Line Drive percentage is only 18.4%. All signs of an ace starting pitcher. Yes, he has to go against a powerhouse Red Sox lineup but like mentioned with Sale, the weather should help him keep the ball in the park.

Domingo German NYY at SF ($9,600 FD, $9,200 DK) : The first thing I love about German here is the ballpark. Oracle is the worst, bar none, ballpark for HRs. Consistently year after year it ranks 30th out of 30 in terms of HRs. And it isn’t like the Giants are the incarnation of the ’27 Yankees. Against righties, San Francisco ranks dead last in all of MLB with an OPS of .609. They are tied with the fewest HRs hit at 14. I really do not need to get any more in-depth than this….the worst home run park against the worst home run hitting team in vs. right handers. But I will! German has four starts on the year. In three of the four starts he went at least six innings, allowed two earned runs or less and struck out at least five. Expect him to make it four out of five in all five categories in this smash spot. NOTE: I really wanted Matthew Boyd as well and will recommend him now that he is confirmed for today.

Dirt-Cheap Values:

Kyle Gibson BAL at MIN ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK) : There is no reason to stop picking on the Orioles. In Gibson’s last start against this same team at a much better hitter’s ballpark (Oriole Park at Camden Yards), he went six innings with six strikeouts, no walks and only five hits allowed. He was credited with his first win of the season in that contest. With temperatures expected to be only near 50 degrees and a moderate 10-20 mph wind blowing in from right field, you have to like Gibson’s chance at pitching a good game. As written yesterday, the Orioles lack any sort of power against righties and Gibson’s sinker ball won’t be of any help in that department.

Sonny Gray CIN at STL ($8,300 FD, $8,800 DK): If you take away Gray’s first start of the year, he has struck out at least six batters each time out. He has allowed more than three runs only once in that stretch. His advanced statistics support his terrific start to 2019, with a career high 11.31 batters struck out per nine innings pitched and a career low 2.19 walks per nine. With that many strikeouts, few walks and a 54.1% ground ball rate, he is limiting big innings and not allowing the opponent to score many runs. Isn’t that what you are looking for in a SP?

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Sonny Gray: Strikeouts over 5.5 – Let’s go back to the Sonny Gray pick from above. He has reached at least six strikeouts in all of his last four starts and St. Louis ranks 13th in MLB with 179 strikeouts against righties. The Reds used three arms from their bullpen yesterday and need Gray to go deep in this game. They do not have the benefit of an off-day tomorrow so they won’t be able to empty their bullpen.

DFS meteorologist concentrating on MLB and the NFL, I graduated from UMass-Lowell with a degree in meteorology in 1996. I worked at AccuWeather as a meteorologist for almost a decade. I combined my two loves, weather and sports, and like to think I help 1000s of DFS'ers out each day. Huge Boston sports fan, lover of nature and animals and a proud father of 4 boys (2 biological).

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