Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.
Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.
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Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.
Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.
The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.
Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.
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Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.
Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.
He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.
As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.
Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.
Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.
Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.
Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.
Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.
Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?
Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.
Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.
Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.
Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.
Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).
Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.
The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.
Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.
Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.
Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.
At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.
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The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast, co-hosted by Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis, looks at the best quarterback plays of Week 6 along with a look at the Waiver Wire.
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PODCAST: Brandon and Antonio look at the best QB options for Week 6.
The 10/8 Win Daily Sports Podcast answers why Matt Ryan a better Cash Game Play than either Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson and how the Eagles-Vikings game can be fool’s gold for both Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.
Seriously, Josh Rosen has Week 6 Fantasy value. Why it might be time to stop buying into Baker Mayfield and the Browns offense. The podcast concludes with a look at the top players available on the Week 6 Waiver Wire.
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Week Five was absolutely insane for both NFL DFS Cash Games and GPPs. I usually try to build a cash lineup that can score around 150 points and am confident I’ll hit the pay-line. In Week Five, you needed 200 or more points to cash… WOW! Feel free to review last week’s Checkdown to see what players we were high on, including a ridiculous eight wide receiver plays that all blew it out of the water. Let’s get right back to it for the Week Six Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.
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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.
If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.
Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Six, please see below for my notes on roster construction:
QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Carlos Hyde
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
WR: Larry Fitzgerald
WR: Preston Williams
TE: Austin Hooper
FLEX: Le’Veon Bell
DST: New York Jets
NFL Week 5 is all but in the books. Let’s look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s action. We will analyze 12 major takeaways from the games played. Above all, we will also look ahead to Week 6 and see what edges we can get for the upcoming main slate. The prices discussed are for DraftKings.
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All analysts at Win Daily were touting Will Fuller all week so I really hope you listened. Not only did he have a big game, but Fuller’s Week 5 performance was one for the ages. Via ESPN.com this was the highest Fantasy point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of 2013. Fuller is the first wide receiver to score that many points since Terrell Owens scored 54.8 in Week 16 in 2000. At his price of $4,500, he was so easy to fit into any lineup. Fuller caught 14 of 16 targets for 217 receiving yards and three touchdowns during Sunday’s 53-32 win against the Falcons. He scored over 50 fantasy points. The Deshaun Watson to Will Fuller stack scored over 100 fantasy points.
Fuller was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 31 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. A lot of people saw this big game coming for Fuller. With the Texans facing the Chiefs next week Fuller is bound to be extremely popular, even with his salary increased to $6,000.
Thomas secured 11 of 13 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Thomas has not missed a step since Teddy Bridgewater took over, but his price was low at $6,600. In Week 6 his price has gone up to $7,800. He is going to have very high ownership because of this next week. But as sharp DFS players know, you should always fade the high-priced chalky wide receivers. We saw it this week with both Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Both were over $7,700 and 20 percent ownership, and it did not pay off. Thomas was owned in 20 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 25 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest.
Will Fuller led Week 5 in receiving yards for a few hours before Amari Cooper went over 225 receiving yards in the later portion on Sunday. You need to identify top-end wide receiver talents at the cheaper price tags. Cooper had ownership of just 3.4 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Someone to keep in mind that fits the high wide receiver talent pool under $7,000 for Week 6 is Odell Beckham Jr. at $6,800.
It’s a shame that not more people played Aaron Jones in Week 5. He was set up for a smash spot because of the injury to Jamaal Williams. There should have been no question of how many touches he would receive. Jones was owned in just 11.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in 17.6 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. The main takeaway here from Jones’ four-touchdown performance is that injuries matter A LOT.
Injuries might be a more important factor than matchups. If you followed that type of thinking you would have played Jones over a guy with a great matchup in the same game in Ezekiel Elliott. He did not nearly have as much production in Week 6. One could make the argument that was because the Cowboys were banged up at the offensive line position.
The rule for DFS has usually been to pay down at defense. However, lately this season we have seen defenses put up over 30 fantasy points. In most cases, it has been for expensive defenses that are in obvious great matchups. The Eagles D/ST had ownership of just 6.5 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest, and 3.2 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. These ownership percentages were extremely low compared to the Panthers D/ST.
That unit was by far the highest owned on the main slate. They had ownership of 32.1 percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. They were also in 13.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. As we look to Week 6 with the Cowboys playing the Jets this might be a spot worth paying up for in both cash and GPP formats if Sam Darnold misses the game.
You know the old saying “Squeaky wheel gets the grease?” Well, nothing could have been more apparent on Sunday. Adam Thielen was the wheel getting all the grease in Minnesota. Thielen caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Thielen had ownership of five percent in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. He had ownership of 13.1 percent in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. In Week 6, Thielen gets an equally great matchup against the Eagles. His salary remains the same at $6,700.
Christian McCaffrey is a pretty good football player. He scored 50.7 fantasy points in Week 5. He now has scored 30 or more points in four of his five games so far this season. In the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest his ownership was just at 56.1 percent. What that translates to is that almost 44 percent of lineups did not feature him in cash. As a public service announcement to all, when McCaffrey is on the main slate you must lock him into your cash lineups. He is a must-play. However, we will be without him in Week 6, because the Panthers are playing an early game on Sunday.
We love targeting tight ends that play the Arizona Cardinals. Well, at least we like good tight ends that play them. The most popular play at tight end in Tyler Eifert was only able to score 3.4 fantasy points against the Cardinals in Week 5. He was in 26.8 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. In Week 6, the Cardinals will host the Atlanta Falcons. That is the prime spot for Austin Hooper. He is coming off another productive performance in Week 5 where he had six receptions on nine targets for 56 yards. The nine targets were a team-high. With 42 targets through the first five weeks, Hooper is entering elite status at tight end. He will surely be heavily owned in Week 6, but all signs point to a productive outing.
DFS players should always be fading the high-priced chalkier wide receivers. But we should always be buying the low-priced chalkier wide receivers. That receiver was Auden Tate in Week 5. He was priced at $3,500. Tate was owned in 35.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in a whopping 77 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Though things looked bleak in the first half for Tate with Andy Dalton completing just four passes, he turned things around in the second half. Tate finished the day with one touchdown reception and three receptions on a total of six targets. He is going to be $4,500 in Week 6, but will most likely see coverage from Marlon Humphrey from Baltimore, so he is somebody I will be fading.
Heading into Week 5, Fournette was averaging right around 24 touches per game but had yet to score a touchdown. He finally broke his touchdown drought by scoring from one yard out. Fournette was owned in 14.3 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was owned in 21 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Fournette had 27 touches in Week 5 and because of the guaranteed volume, he needs to be considered in Week 6 with his salary at just $6,700. The matchup is difficult though, with the Jaguars playing the Saints. New Orleans gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Fournette profiles as a GPP play in Week 6.
There may not be a bigger WR surprise than D.J. Chark. After Week 5, he now has five touchdown receptions in just as many games. Chark was owned in just 3.6 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. Now people are going to see the Saints matchup and project Chark to be a bust in Week 6. Marshon Lattimore is coming off a game where he just completely blanked Mike Evans. However, Evans and Chark are two completely different wide receivers. Evans is a size specimen whereas Chark is a guy that possesses 4.34 speed. At just $5,500 entering Week 6 Chark is too cheap. The Saints still allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
Dede Westbrook, who is priced at $5,100, is also worth considering. The Saints have struggled against slot receivers this season. Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards when they played the Saints. Westbrook is coming off his best game of the year, as he had seven receptions on 11 targets for 82 receiving yards.
No matter what team Cook faces he always seems to deliver for his fantasy owners. Cook was owned in 13.2 percent of lineups in the NFL $300K FAIR CATCH GPP contest. He was also owned in just 12.1 percent of lineups in the NFL MASSIVE $25 DOUBLE UP contest. Cook has now scored at least 19 fantasy points in every single game this season. He should be considered a lock-in your lineup in Week 6 when the Vikings play the Eagles. Though the Eagles have not allowed more than 50 rushing yards to an opposing rusher this season they have allowed 13 receptions to the position over the past two weeks. Cook has seen 14 targets in his last two games and is averaging 22.6 touches per game. His salary remains at $8,400 in Week 6.
Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis look back at the Week 3 performances of Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen while also getting an early jump on the best options at quarterback for Week 4. The duo also share their best waiver wire plays for Week 4 on the 9/24 Fantasy Podcast.
Is the Panthers-Texans game a slugfest between Kyle Allen and Deshaun Watson? With Russell Wilson scoring Fantasy points at will, has he established himself as the top Fantasy QB not named Patrick Mahomes? Speaking of Mahomes, he and the Chiefs visit the Lions. The waiver wire has Giants RB Wayne Gallman and Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman topping the list on the 9/24 Fantasy Podcast.
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The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.
As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.
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Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.
This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.
Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%
Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.
Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.
Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.
Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.
Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.
The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.
I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.
The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.
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News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.
You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.
Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.
The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.
Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.
The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.
Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.
Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…
Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.
Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.
Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.
Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”
Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.
Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.
If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.
Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.
Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.
Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.
This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.
PODCAST: Learning from the Big Winners and MNF Showdown with The King and Dan Wehr
The Chicago Bears travel to Landover, MD to take on the Washington Redskins. Jonathan Allen will be rejoining the Redskins defense after going down with a knee injury in Week One. The Redskins defense has been picked apart their first two weeks, surrendering an average of 455 yards per game with 168 yards of that being on the ground. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott were both in tune with hitting their short and intermediate passes against the Redskins and allowed them to take deep shots downfield.
I do not believe tonight is the night for a Bears offensive outbreak, but I think Trubisky is in a better spot than he was in Weeks One and Two. The Redskins defense has only 20 QB pressures and two sacks and even with Jonathan Allen back, he is not 100% and I question his effectiveness in the pass rush. The Bears have struggled with offensive play calling with 42% of all passes going to the RB position. I believe NFL defenses have figured out Matt Nagy’s offensive system. He vowed earlier in the year to not use Tarik Cohen as he did last year, but this still remains to be seen.
Cohen has a 60% snap share and 15 receptions in 2019 compared to his 50% snap share in 2018. This is why I believe the intermediate passes are so crucial in tonight’s game. If the Bears can get away from the predictable dump off passes to their running backs and utilize the talent they have at receiver they should see better game flow and ultimately more scoring.
Allen Robinson ($14,700), Mitch Trubisky ($15,600), Bears DST ($9,300), and Tarik Cohen ($10,200).
Mitch Trubisky ($10,400), David Montgomery ($9,400), Bears DST ($1,600), Taylor Gabriel ($4,400), Trey Burton ($6,000), Terry McLaurin ($8,600), Chris Thompson ($7,400), Tarik Cohen ($6,800), Paul Richardson Jr. ($5,000)
My favorite approach on Draftkings is Allen Robinson at the Captain spot and pairing him up with Mitch Trubisky in the flex. I will have minimal Redskins in my single entry lineup.
Mitch Trubisky ($14,500), Allen Robinson ($13,000), David Montgomery ($12,500), and Tarik Cohen ($9,500).
(All plays at MVP can be used in flex) Taylor Gabriel ($6,500), Trey Burton ($6,000), Terry McLaurin ($13,500), Paul Richarson Jr. ($8000), Dustin Hopkins ($9,500).
My favorite approach on Fanduel is Mitch Trubisky at the MVP spot and pairing him up with Allen Robinson in the flex.
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It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.
Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.
I think Florida Evans put it best.
As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.
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Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.
Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.
Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.
I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.
On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.
Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.
Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.
So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..
Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.
The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.
If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.
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Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.
In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.
Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.
Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.
The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.
Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.
Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.
Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.
Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.
Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.
Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.
Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”
Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.
Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…
The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.
Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.
The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”
If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.
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This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.
After a disappointing Week One home opener against the Titans, the Browns look to rebound on the road against the New York Jets who will be without quarterback Sam Darnold due to illness. The Browns allowed 125 yards on the ground and 248 through the air in Week One. The Titans showed us how ineffective Baker Mayfield can be if defenses are able to pressure him and force him to make throws he normally wouldn’t.
I cannot see the Jets replicating what the Titans did. C.J. Mosley has already been ruled out for tonight’s game and that leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Jets run defense and pass rush. Le’Veon Bell is also questionable with a shoulder injury, but media outlets suggest he should play tonight. Assuming he plays, I have to imagine he will carry a ton of usage as the Jets do not have a lot of offensive talent outside of Bell. If the Browns can execute their game plan and contain Bell the Jets offense could be in for a long night It is worth noting that Demaryius Thomas and Trevor Siemian played together in Denver. Thomas is also listed as questionable, and he definitely isn’t the same player he was in 2017.
One of the key differences between DK and FD is the salary is 1.5 times more expensive at the Captain position on DK. I will provide some core options at both Captain and Flex positions.
My main approach with single games is game scripting. It takes out a lot out of the guesswork and gives you a foundation when building your lineups. In tonight’s matchup we have a 45.5 O/U with the Browns being favored by -2.5 points. Suggested low scoring on both sides and a close spread almost always puts kickers into play for me. All players in consideration at the Captain position can also be used in the Flex player pool.
Captain: Nick Chubb ($15,000), Le’veon Bell ($17,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($17,700), and Jarvis Landry ($13,500).
Flex: Austin Seibert ($3400), Sam Ficken ($3200), Ty Montgomery ($1600), David Njoku ($5800), Jamison Crowder ($8000), Robbie Anderson ($7000), Demaryius Thomas ($3800), and Trevor Siemian ($8200)
FanDuel does not hit us with a salary penalty for their MVP spot so we can choose the player who we believe can score the most raw points at that slot. All players in consideration at the MVP position can also be used in the Flex player pool.
MVP: Nick Chubb ($13,000), Baker Mayfield ($15,000), Le’veon Bell ($15,500), Odell Beckham Jr. ($14,000)
Flex: Trevor Siemian ($12,500), Demaryius Thomas ($6500), Jarvis Landry ($12,500), Austin Seibert ($8,500), Sam Ficken ($9,000), David Njoku ($10,500), and Jamison Crowder ($12,000).
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