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Deshaun Watson

Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week One Monday Night Football Breakdown and Podcast

5 years ago

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This report will provide plays for the NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down changes each team has made during the off-season and provide recommended plays for each game.

MNF DFS Podcast with the King and Dan Wehr: Listen Below

Houston Texas vs. New Orleans Saints

O/U: 51.5 (NOS -6.5)

NFL DFS Team: Houston Texans

The Texans were one of the best rushing teams in the league last season according to team rankings, averaging 125 yards per game. They’ve added a few pieces here in the offseason through the draft, specifically at their weakest positon, left tackle (Laremy Tunsil). The Texans fell to the middle of the pack in terms of passing efficiency last season and I think injuries to Will Fuller, Deshaun Watson, and ineffective running by Lamar Miller were big contributors.

Watson took more hits than any QB in the league in 2018 so it was clear where they needed to make a change. By adding bulldog running back Duke Johnson and solidifying their offensive line they have a well rounded offense that can excel in the passing game if they can give Watson the time he needs to throw against a so-so New Orleans secondary (266 YPG allowed in 2018).

NFL DFS Team: New Orleans Saints

The Saints are coming fresh off of a heartbreak loss in the postseason after a much criticized no call on an obvious pass interference call against the Rams. I have to imagine this team comes in firing on all cylinders with aspirations of getting back into the postseason as a top seeded team. They lost a few pieces in the offseason, Mark Ingram being one of the biggest in free agency. The Saints replaced him with journeyman RB Latavius Murray, who should see a good bit of work in the red zone.

The Saints were a Top 10 team in terms of rushing and passing offense in 2018 and I don’t expect much to change this season. With no Ingram and Murray handling some of the workload, I still expect Alvin Kamara to see a massive snap share and should be considered on a week to week basis. Let’s not forget about sure handed receiver Michael Thomas, who reeled in 95% of catchable balls thrown his way. The Saints have lost the last five of their season openers.

NFL DFS Plays to consider:

Michael Thomas WR ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)
Deandre Hopkins WR ($9000 FD|$8000 DK)
Will Fuller WR ($6100 FD|$5300 DK)
Duke Johnson Jr. RB ($6500 FD|$6000 DK)
Alvin Kamra RB ($9000 FD|$8500 DK)
(Punt Play) Latavius Murray ($6000 FD|$4100 DK)
Deshaun Watson QB ($8600 FD|$6800 DK)
(Punt play) Kenny Stills WR ($5200 FD|$3900 FD)
(Punt Play) Tedd Ginn Jr. WR ($5000 FD|$4100 DK)

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders

O/U: 43.5 (DEN -2)

NFL DFS Team: Denver Broncos

The Broncos have struggled with finding a QB since the departure of Peyton Manning and turn to the services of Joe Flacco for the 2019 season. Flacco, once an MVP caliber QB for the Ravens, has struggled to find consistent footing in the offense since his miraculous run in the 2012 postseason. There was a lot of praise for Flacco out of Broncos off-season camps, citing his ability to read the defense and vertically stretch the field (but we already knew that). Philip Lindsay is coming off of surgery but is at full health. Royce Freeman is also back to 100% health and saw a majority of the action in the preseason with Lindsay in recovery. I believe we see a more balanced snap share in the back field between the two this season and I tend favor Freeman in this first game just due to the fact that Lindsay did not see a lot of work and should be eased back into the offense.

Not much should change for the Denver defense, they still have that formidable defensive line and a solid core of LBs to complement them, although they still allowed 120 rushing yards per game last season. The Broncos also added much needed versatility to their secondary, one of the weakest spots in their defense last year. They allowed 245 yards per game through the air on average last season.

NFL DFS Team: Oakland Raiders

What a disastrous last few weeks for the Raiders. With the untimely departure of Antonio Brown it leaves a huge hole in one of their weakest positions on offense. The only receiver worth noting on this offense, Tyrell Williams, draws a tough matchup against Isaac Yiadom. One noteworthy change to the Raiders is their improvement at the offensive line positions.

The defense isn’t very appealing and tried to make up for their woes through the 2019 draft. The defensive performance will be determined by their rookie draft picks (Two edge rushers, and one safety in the first two rounds). If these guys can plug and play I think the Raiders could have a bright spot on the defense. Another player to keep an eye on for the Raiders is highly touted rookie RB Josh Jacobs. He comes into tonight’s slate as a top value play and although the Raiders are not a run first offense, I believe they turn to Jacobs to pick up the slack on offense.

NFL DFS Plays to consider

Joe Flacco QB ($7000 FD|$5100 DK)
Josh Jacobs RB ($6800 FD|$5000 DK)
Royce Freeman RB ($5900 FD|$4300 DK)
Emmanuel Sanders WR ($5700 FD|$5500 DK)
Darren Waller TE ($5400 FD|$3400 DK)
Courtland Sutton WR ($4900 FD|$4500 DK)

Defense

Flip a coin between the Raiders or Broncos. I favor the Broncos just due to all the questions surrounding the offense right now.

Denver Broncos DST ($4800 FD|$3500 DK)
Oakland Raiders DST ($3800 FD|$2300 DK)

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

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Listen to our DFS Podcast on Week One QB picks below.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500)

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200)

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000)

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600)

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700)

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200)

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400)

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400)

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900)

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700)

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600)

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

5 years ago 0 comment

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