Tag:

Denver Nuggets

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 31)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As we approach the last quarter of the NBA season, every game is of importance. Many continue to battle for playoff seeding, while others look to the trade deadline to shape their future. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Los Angeles Lakers @ New York Knicks (-1.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5)

Having rested both LeBron James and Anthony Davis last night, the expectation is that the Lakers offense will return for this contest. Despite Father Time expecting to catch up to LeBron James, one of, if not the greatest to take an NBA court shows no sign of slowing down. Over his last eight games, LeBron has posted 30 or more points in six appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 35.3/8.8/8 on 52% shooting during that span. The return of Anthony Davis certainly causes concern for James’ fantasy outlook, but if the Lakers truly want to make a run, it will be on the back of The King.

New York Knicks (-1.5)

All eyes will be on Julius Randle in a matchup versus his former team. Despite the Knicks being once again a bubble team in the weaker of the two conferences, Randle has flourished after a rocky start to the season. However, this is a prime matchup for Jalen Brunson. The offseason acquisition made waves with his departure from Dallas, but has lived up to the expectations that come with playing in The Big Apple. Over his ten games, Brunson has posted 20 or more points in eight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 26.2/3.6/5.1 on 47% shooting during that span. With the Lakers ranked 28th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, Brunson is primed for a big performance at home.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets (-8.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (+8.5)

The Pelicans’ rotation comes into this contest rested after both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram sat out the second half of a back-to-back on Sunday. The two will continue handling the bulk of the offensive opportunities in the absence of Zion Williamson. In two games back since his toe injury, Brandon Ingram has been far from shy with his game. The two-way wing has averaged 17.5/5.5/4.5 which is lower than his expected output, but he has averaged 20 shots per night. Moreover, Ingram has seen his minutes increase in back-to-back games. Ingram carries a higher volatility and ceiling for tournaments, while McCollum offers a safer floor on this NBA slate.

Denver Nuggets (-8.5)

Whenever he takes the court, all eyes are on the back-to-back NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic. The face of the Nuggets franchise has been simply phenomenal again this season, averaging 25.1/10.9/9.9 on 62.9% shooting. Moreover, he leads the league in triple-doubles with 15 across 43 games. However, he limits what the rest of your lineup looks like considering he is near the top of the pricing grid. With Jamal Murray questionable to play due to injury management, value could open up with Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Bruce Brown. Moreover, Bones Hyland is being actively mentioned in potential trades, meaning this rotation is going to tighten up down the stretch of the season. Monitor the injury report and adjust accordingly.

Honorable Mentions:

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Chicago Bulls (+3.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS for Ghost’s Gems (Jan. 24)

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

A few teams are on the second half of a back-to-back, while others’ injury reports figure to be lengthy. This NBA slate will certainly be one to monitor throughout the day. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5)

Chicago Bulls (+1.5)

The Bulls are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning there is a chance players miss this game. In addition, Chicago has many players still on contracts with term, making them attractive trade deadline pieces. However, this is still one of the best game environments on the NBA slate. The trio of Lavine, Vucevic, and DeRozan will continue to dominate usage on the offensive side of the ball. Of the three, Lavine has the highest ceiling, but Vucevic has the best ceiling/floor combination. Over his last 11 games, Vucevic has record 11 straight double-doubles. Moreover, he has been dominant on the glass and has seen an increase in offensive looks. With the Pacers ranked 27th in the NBA against true centers, Vucevic will line up on Turner for a ton of minutes.

Indiana Pacers (-1.5)

Tyrese Haliburton continues to rehabilitate from a knee injury, leaving this offense with plenty of additional looks to go around. In this particular matchup against the Bulls, Buddy Hield will be the x-factor. On the season, Hield leads the NBA in three-pointers made with 181. Moreover, he has shot 42.2% from behind the arc, averaging 3.8 three-pointers per night. With the Bulls ranked 29th in the league in three-pointers allowed, Hield will be relied upon to shoulder the load.

Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans (OTB)

Denver Nuggets (OTB)

In a rare occurrence, Nikola Jokic has missed the last two games for the Nuggets. Should he miss this one again tonight, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will see more shot attempts. However, the latter is also in question tonight considering he missed last game due to personal reasons. Should Porter Jr. miss this game, Bruce Brown and Aaron Gordon make for intriguing options on this NBA slate, barring a Jokic absence. This is an important injury report to monitor.

New Orleans Pelicans (OTB)

The Pelicans got off to a hot start but have been falling in the absence of both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. While the former is set to be re-evaluated soon, the latter is still listed as doubtful for tonight. Thus, CJ McCollum will continue leading this offense. Over the course of the season, McCollum has a 27.4% usage rate, resulting in 1.11 fantasy points per minute. However, with both Williamson and Ingram off the court, McCollum sees increases to 1.21 fantasy points per minute through a 31.8% usage rate. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, setting the stage for McCollum to have a stellar performance.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5)

Despite missing many games for the Clippers throughout his tenure, Kawhi Leonard has been tremendous. The Klaw now has scored 24 or more points in seven straight appearances. Moreover, he has averaged 29.9/6.7/3.9 on 54.1% shooting during that span. In a game between the two Los Angeles teams, all eyes will be on Kawhi & Paul George versus LeBron James. If you are looking for serious star power on this NBA slate, there is no greater game environment than this one.

Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5)

Despite being in his 20th NBA season, LeBron James is showing no signs of slowing down. Only 223 points behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time scoring record, James is set to make history in the near future. This season, James has averaged 29.8/8.5/6.9 on 50.8% shooting through a 36.8% usage rate. Moreover, he has scored 30 or more points in four of his last five games, averaging 35/8.8/7.6 during that span. Committing to this game environment limits your options for the rest of your DFS lineups, but it truly has the best potential on the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks (+3.5)
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns (OTB)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/17/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are only four games on the NBA schedule tonight, but there is plenty of intrigue. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Toronto Raptors (+6.5)

Both of these teams are on the second half of a back-to-back and have key players in question. After the Raptors starting unit all played over 40 minutes yesterday in an overtime win versus the Knicks, it’s possible to see someone rest. The most likely candidate is Fred VanVleet, who has been dealing with a back injury. With Pascal Siakam dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez in the paint, the perimeter options will have to carry the offense. VanVleet has been having a streaky season, showing upside on the offensive end, while also carrying a low floor. Moreover, Gary Trent Jr. seems to have shaken off his jitters from the beginning of the season. In his last 11 games, GTJ has seen 30 or more minutes in ten appearances, scoring 20 or more points in seven of them. The two are the preferred Raptors on this NBA slate.

Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5)

Giannis Antetokounmpo missed his third consecutive game yesterday. However, he had taken part in warmup and was listed as probable. Barring any setback, he is in a great spot to lead the NBA slate in scoring. While he had two poor performances recently, the upside he carries against the Raptors is tremendous. While Toronto sits 6th in the league in points allowed in the paint, Giannis is matchup proof. The MVP candidate has averaged 30.1/15/6.3 over his last seven games, despite two appearances with seven and nine points. There are plenty of studs to choose from on this slate, so Brook Lopez makes for a fine alternate to get exposure to this competitive game environment.

Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)

Once one of the hottest teams in the NBA, the Nets are 0-2 since losing Kevin Durant to an MCL sprain. However, a matchup versus a Spurs defense that ranks last in the league could be what they need to get things in gear. The Spurs defense struggles most notably in their backcourt. They sit 27th versus primary ball handlers and 29th versus off-ball guards, allowing the 22nd most three-pointers and the highest shooting percentage from behind the arc. Ben Simmons has a modest 9% usage rate in two games without Durant, but he continues to run point alongside Kyrie Irving. Moreover, the quartet of Irving, Curry, Harris, and Warren are set to flourish in a quick game environment.

San Antonio Spurs (+5.5)

Vegas has this game as far from a blowout as anticipated. Despite the lopsided matchup on paper, the Spurs aren’t as big of underdogs as one would expect. Thus, the trio of Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Poeltl are in for big minutes. Jones has been a pleasant surprise for the rebuilding Spurs this season. Over his last seven games, Jones has been phenomenal on offense despite the team’s 1-6 record. During that span, Jones has averaged 19.1/4.3/5.7 on 49.1% shooting. With the Nets shifting Simmons to the paint on defense, Jones gets a friendly matchup versus Kyrie Irving.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

If you’re looking for fireworks on this NBA slate, look no further. This matchup is set to feature two elite offenses, but all eyes will be on Damian Lillard versus Nikola Jokic. The former has been on quite a tear for the Trail Blazers recently. Over his last five games, Lillard has scored 30 or more points in each appearance. Moreover, Lillard has averaged 38/3.6/6.4 on 53.1% shooting during that span while attempting over ten three-pointers per night.

Denver Nuggets (-6.5)

On the flipside of Lillard’s upside is none other than Nikola Jokic. The back-to-back NBA MVP has done it all for the Nuggets this season, and has posted three triple-doubles over his last four games. Moreover, he has averaged 20/13.5/12.3 during that span. If Jokic does not fit builds, both Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are good ways to get exposure to this elite game environment. The two rely heavily on their scoring to provide a good fantasy output, but if Jokic does not break the slate, it’s largely because someone else on Denver is carrying the load alongside with him.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5)

While the status of Paul George greatly impacts the Clippers rotation, his probable return makes this an elite game environment that will go overlooked on a small NBA slate. While there are many players with offensive upside on both teams, none have been playing to the level that James Harden has been lately. Over his last five games, The Beard has averaged 23/8.4/13 on 57.4% shooting. Moreover, Harden has two triple-doubles during that span, while collecting 11 or more assists in each appearance. Primary ball handlers versus the Clippers will forever be one of the best matchups in NBA DFS, and Harden is set to take flight tonight.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1.5)

Exposure to the Clippers on this NBA slate is contingent on the status of Paul George. After practicing on Monday, the expectation is that PG will return after missing the team’s last five games. However, this greatly impacts the production of others around him. Given the level of uncertainty and the fact that this game is the last to tipoff, this is a risk that could send lineups to the top or bottom of the leaderboards.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/13/2023

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As has been the theme of the week, tonight’s NBA slate is riddled with injuries. However, plenty of elite game environments remain. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5)

The lone bright spot of the Pacers in their own end of the court has been their on-ball defense. However, this changes drastically with Tyrese Haliburton ruled out for the next two weeks. Trae Young missed last game with an illness, but is off the injury report. Wednesday night was a prime example of how this offense can struggle without the face of their franchise. Not only does Young lead the team with a 33.6% usage rate, but he also leads the team in both scoring and assists as well. Despite swirling rumors around the team, Young has been excellent this NBA season, averaging 27.5/2.9/9.8 on 42.2% shooting.

Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

As mentioned above, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for at least two weeks with a sprained elbow. Thus, there is ample opportunity for others on the offensive side of the ball. While TJ McConnell and Andrew Nembhard figure to share the rock on the starting unit, interest should also lie in Indiana’s shooters. While Atlanta has good on-ball defense thanks to Dejounte Murray, Trae Young has been abysmal on defense with a 117.7 rating. Thus, Buddy Hield and Bennedict Mathurin cannot be overlooked on this NBA slate. Hield leads the league in three-pointers this season with 165 makes. Moreover, he has averaged 18.3 points while shooting 42.7% from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Mathurin continues to lead the Pacers in usage at 25.8% and figures to play a crucial role in this offense in the absence of Haliburton.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Denver Nuggets (+1.5)

Nikola Jokic was a surprising addition to the Nuggets injury report. Known as one of the most durable players in the NBA over recent years, the back-to-back MVP will dictate exposure to this offense. Should he evidently play, he is in a prime spot to lead the slate in scoring. The Clippers currently rank 19th in points allowed in the paint and 24th versus true centers. Moreover, Jokic has averaged 25.5/12.3/11 over his last 13 games, recording a whopping seven triple-doubles along the way. If Jokic is ruled out, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will lead the starting unit, while Bones Hyland becomes an intriguing play off the bench.

Los Angeles Clippers (-1.5)

Kawhi Leonard is no longer mispriced on NBA DFS sites. Tonight, in the absence of Paul George, Leonard will once again lead the charge for the Clippers. However, there are other targets in this offense as well. Norman Powell and Terance Mann both continue to log heavy minutes over veterans John Wall and Reggie Jackson. Moreover, Powell has now scored in double digits in each of his last four appearances. During that span, Powell has averaged 18.8/3.5/1.8 on 50% shooting, including 20 or more points in two of his last four outings. If you cannot play Leonard, don’t hesitate to get exposure to this offense in other ways.

Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Houston Rockets (+10.5)

A rematch of Wednesday’s contest is highlighted for the second time in three days. A key difference, however, is that Kevin Porter Jr. has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Thus, both Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are elite targets on this NBA slate. On the season, Green leads the team with a 28.1% usage rate and has posted 0.98 fantasy points per minute. However, with KPJ off the court, Green’s output increases to 1.07 fantasy points per minute and a 32.4% usage rate. Moreover, Sengun continues to be ignored by the field. He was highlighted in Wednesday’s article, which you can find here. The sophomore came through with the first triple-double of his career, posting a 10/10/10 scoring line on 55.56% shooting.

Sacramento Kings (-10.5)

Another NBA slate featuring the Kings is another day to play Sabonis or Fox. However, both have been featured countless times over the years. Kevin Huerter was scratched on Wednesday because of an illness and he did not practice yesterday. Should Huerter be ruled out for tonight’s game, both Malik Monk and Terence Davis will play larger roles on offense against one of, if not the worst defense in the NBA. However, make no mistake about it, Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are the prime targets here.

Honorable Mentions:

Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs (OTB)
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls (-4.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/09

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Although there are several stars missing in action tonight, there are still many elite matchups. Moreover, this NBA slate has potential to have several high scoring affairs. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Washington Wizards (-1.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (+1.5)

With key contributors out of each of these teams’ respective lineups, usage will be plentiful for others. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out for the Pelicans, who are surprisingly underdogs to the Wizards in this one. Once again, CJ McCollum figures to be one of the most popular players on this NBA slate. On the season, the point guard sports a 26.3% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute. However, with both Williamson and Ingram off the court, McCollum sees increases to a usage rate of 31.6% and produces 1.24 fantasy points per minute. Moreover, in his last two games, McCollum has averaged 28/3.5/6 on 44.4% shooting.

Washington Wizards (-1.5)

While Bradley Beal remains out for the Wizards, both Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma will shoulder the load on offense. However, there is another Washington player that continues to fly under the radar. Lately, Daniel Gafford has been playing excellent basketball. While he has always been a productive player on a per-minute basis, he has finally gotten enough time on the court to flourish. Startling alongside Porzingis has allowed Gafford to draw easier matchups on both ends of the court. Thus, he has been much more productive. Over his last five games, Gafford has logged 25 or more minutes in every contest. Moreover, he has averaged 13.6/8.2/1.8 on 75% shooting, despite the low usage rate and field goal attempts. New Orleans currently ranks 22nd in the NBA against centers, while allowing nearly 50 points in the paint per game.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-8.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+8.5)

Make no mistake about it, this organization runs through LeBron James. However, with the absences of both Lonnie Walker IV and Austin Reeves, both Russell Westbrook and Dennis Schroder have been tremendous in their respective roles. With the former continues to come off the bench, he is the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year. Over his last two games, Westbrook has averaged 20.5/8/12 through a 25.6% usage rate while logging over 32 minutes per night. Moreover, Schroder has been efficient in the starting lineup. While logging over 32 minutes per contest in each of his last five appearances, Schroder has averaged 21.4/2.6/3.8 on 50.8% shooting. Both Schroder and Westbrook have upside against a Denver defense that ranks 20th in the NBA versus secondary ball handlers.

Denver Nuggets (-8.5)

If there is a stud at the top of the pricing grid on this NBA slate that can lead it in scoring, it’s Nikola Jokic. Not only has the back-to-back MVP led his squad to the #1 seed in the Western Conference thus far, but he has been just as dominant as past years. Over his last ten games, Jokic has posted five triple-doubles. Moreover, he has averaged 25.6/10.4/10.8 on 59.4% shooting during that span. Without Anthony Davis guarding the paint, the Lakers interior defense has crumbled. They now sit 28th in the NBA versus true centers, while being ranked 24th in points allowed in the paint per game.

Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

Orlando Magic (+5.5)

The Magic are still a rebuilding team but they can put up a fight with a healthy roster. Despite missing Bol Bol tonight, they have Jalen Suggs back and their suspended players have all returned. Paolo Banchero continues to lead the Rookie of the Year race, but his point/dollar upside is limited. Thus, this slate is more suited for Franz Wagner. Currently, Sacramento ranks last in the NBA against wings. Moreover, Wagner comes into this one having scored 20 or more points in three straight contests. During that span, Wagner has averaged 24.7/2.7/4.3 on 54.9% shooting, while leading the team in minutes per game.

Sacramento Kings (-5.5)

There are many ways to get exposure to one of the most enticing offenses of the NBA slate. At the top of the pricing grid, both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox continue to perform at an All-Star level no matter what their individual matchups are. Moreover, Kevin Huerter has scored in double digits in five straight contests. Meanwhile, with Paolo Banchero switching onto Domantas Sabonis tonight, Keegan Murray has a friendly matchup versus Wendell Carter Jr., who sports a 114.3 defensive rating on the season. Of the four listed targets, Sabonis and Fox are in their own category. However, Huerter and Murray both have upside in an elite game environment, despite being reliant on their scoring output.

Honorable Mentions:

Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks (+2.5)
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics (-8.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies (-11.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/20

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

As was pointed out yesterday, a multitude of players will miss games over the next two weeks. With the holiday period approaching, some teams will take advantage so give their players as much rest as they can. Thus, monitoring injury reports will be as important as ever to succeed in NBA action. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Utah Jazz @ Detroit Pistons (+3.5)

Utah Jazz (-3.5)

With the Jazz on the second half of a back-to-back, this injury report will be important to tonight’s NBA slate. Both Kelly Olynyk and Collin Sexton were ruled out yesterday, and there is a possibility they both miss this game as well. Moreover, Mike Conley is a candidate to receive the night off to rest. Thus, there is interest to be had in the young duo of Walker Kessler and Nickeil Alexander-Walker against a rebuilding Pistons team. This is an elite game environment given that it has the the highest total on the board and the Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating. Moreover, Detroit sits 19th against centers, while being 28th in points allowed in the paint. More to come in Discord once Utah releases their final injury report.

Detroit Pistons (+3.5)

As much intrigue as Walker Kessler carries in this matchup, there is equal, if not more upside with Jalen Duren. Since taking over the starting center spot over Marvin Bagley, Duren has been playing elite basketball on both ends of the court, most notably on the glass. Over his last six games, Duren has logged 24 or more minutes in each appearance. Moreover, he has averaged 9.2/13.7/1.2 on 66.7% shooting during that span, including double-digit rebounds in every game. While he doesn’t take many shots, he is wildly efficient around the rim. Utah ranks 29th in the NBA against true centers and is last in the league in points allowed in the paint.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets (+1.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

This is the game with all the star power on tonight’s NBA slate. Beginning with Memphis’ point guard, Ja Morant, there is a ton of upside in this matchup. Despite being tossed after a questionable technical foul in his last game, Morant has been elite offensively lately. Excluding last game since he got ejected, Morant has posted 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games before that. Moreover, during that span, Morant averaged 26.1/7.6/9.2 on 44.3% shooting. Denver ranks 29th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, setting the scene for Morant to come back from his ejection with a vengeance.

Denver Nuggets (+1.5)

The only player that will contend with Nikola Jokic to lead the NBA slate in scoring is discussed above. However, with Vegas having this one as a tight contest with a high total, pairing them together is ideal. Jokic is fresh off a ridiculous 40/27/10 triple-double against Charlotte. However, while that stat line will be impossible to replicate, his offensive game has been trending in the right direction as of late. In his last seven appearances, Jokic has scored 30 or more points in five games, with 25 or more in six of seven. During that span, Jokic has averaged 31.9/14/9.4 on 60.1% shooting. He is third in the NBA in total assists and assists per game, giving him yet another opportunity to get a triple-double tonight.

Honorable Mentions:

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-5.5)
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks (-4.5)
Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/08

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA is back with another six teams in action tonight. Similarly to how we saw on Tuesday, strategy is key on small slates. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only six teams in action tonight, a single injury or rotation change can alter the slate. Moreover, these are teams that have the most complicated injury reports in the league. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Miami Heat (OTB)

Los Angeles Clippers (OTB)

There is no way to analyze this rotation until we see the Clippers’ final injury report. Thankfully, this is the first game on the NBA slate. With so many players missing the front end of their back-to-back, LA can have a thin rotation tonight, depending on how the dominos fall. Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, who played last night, are rest candidates, in addition to Reggie Jackson. Moreover, John Wall, Marcus Morris Sr., Norman Powell, and Luke Kennard all missed last night’s game. There will be plenty of value in this game, beginning with the Clippers.

Miami Heat (OTB)

Similarly to the Clippers, the final injury report for the Heat will dictate how the chips fall. The biggest domino of them all is the availability of Jimmy Butler, who is questionable due to conditioning. Should he miss a second straight game, Tyler Herro instantly becomes one of the most popular plays on the NBA slate. Herro has now posted 20 or more points in four straight contests, averaging 26.3/6.8/5.8 on 53.4% shooting through a 26.5% usage rate. The status of Jimmy Butler truly dictates how the Heat will look, which we’ll have to wait on.

Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (+2.5)

Houston Rockets (-2.5)

Should Kevin Porter Jr. miss this game, Jalen Green becomes one of the most enticing options on tonight’s NBA slate. While he has been inconsistent with his shot, Green faces a San Antonio defense that ranks 26th in the league versus combo guards. Moreover, Green leads the team in usage rate this season, but sees a drastic shift in production with KPJ off the floor. His usage rate climbs to 33.5% from 28.9%, while his fantasy points per minute increases from 0.99 to 1.13. Elsewhere, Alperen Sengun gets a friendly matchup versus a Spurs interior that ranks 25th in the league versus true centers. Moreover, the Spurs rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game with over 54 allowed nightly.

San Antonio Spurs (+2.5)

Issues are piling up for the Spurs. Not only is their injury report ridiculously lengthly, but they are 1-16 in their last 17 games. However, they are a mere underdog in this matchup. Jakob Poeltl, Keita Bates-Diop, Jeremy Sochan, and Blake Wesley are all out. Meanwhile, Devin Vassell is doubtful to play. Thus, both Tre Jones and Keldon Johnson are in for a heavy workload on offense tonight, flanked by the likes of Doug McDermott and Josh Richardson. There is also potential value here with Isaiah Roby and the rest of their frontcourt. In summary, make sure to check our projections to see where the value lies because it is with the Spurs on tonight’s NBA slate.

Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trail Blazers (+1.5)

Denver Nuggets (-1.5)

While I hopefully talked you off on Nikola Jokic in their matchup versus Dallas, where he posted a mere 42 fantasy points, I’m hoping to talk you into him tonight. Now, this strategy is only feasible if the Spurs value grades out well in my projections. However, should it do so, the back and forth between Jokic and one of four Trail Blazers is the route to take on this NBA slate. Despite only being third on his team in usage rate at 26.5%, Jokic has the upside to dominate this matchup. Portland currently ranks 24th in the NBA against true centers. Moreover, Jusuf Nurkic and Jerami Grant have two of the worst defensive ratings amongst qualified players. If you choose to go the Keldon Johnson/Tre Jones route with Spurs exposure, then Aaron Gordon/Jamal Murray/Bones Hyland are the Nuggets you can look at.

Portland Trail Blazers (+1.5)

After missing seven games, Damian Lillard made his return to the lineup last game in a victory against Indiana. Lillard posted over 40 fantasy points in his return, but did shoot 7-for-16 from the field. However, he did make five three-pointers on ten attempts. Denver currently ranks 19th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game, while also ranking 20th in three-point percentage allowed. Similarly to the strategy described above with Jokic, should you choose the midrange route for Portland, then Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are the targets. Specifically, Grant has posted 27 or more points in six straight games. During that span, Grant has averaged 32.2/2.8/3.7 on 47.7% shooting through a 32.6% usage rate.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/06

Richard Masana 2 years ago

written by Richard Masana

There are only six NBA teams in action tonight but there is no shortage of intriguing headlines. The King makes his return to Cleveland, while both Miami and Dallas are on the second half of a back-to-back. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Only three games are on the schedule tonight. Therefore, a single injury or lineup change can alter the slate and popularity of players. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat (OTB)

Detroit Pistons (OTB)

Barring any added injuries throughout the day, there is little intrigue in the Pistons offense tonight. Jaden Ivey has the highest upside of the bunch, but I prefer another guard in the last game of the NBA slate at a similar price point. Elsewhere, Bojan Bogdanovic can certainly shoot well from deep in this one with the Heat ranked 27th in the league in three-pointers allowed per game. Additionally, the duo of Marvin Bagley and Isaiah Stewart see a bump in the frontcourt should Bam Adebayo be ruled out, but only in that specific scenario.

Miami Heat (OTB)

We are going to need some value to roster some of the studs discussed below and this is the game to get it. Now, at the time of writing, I am fully anticipating Jimmy Butler sitting out on the second half of a back-to-back. With Detroit being without Cade Cunningham for the foreseeable future, the Pistons are set to be contending for the top of the lottery. Thus, there is no reason for Miami to push Butler, who is dealing with a knee injury. Moreover, Tyler Herro is dealing with an ankle injury, and Max Strus is nursing a shoulder issue. There is no confirmation on who the Heat will sit out, but I’m banking on the fact that is is a lengthly injury report to provide immense value on this NBA slate.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5)

Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5)

Look out for the rejuvenated Lakers! Is this team still a championship contender? One can argue no, but you can certainly argue in favor of LeBron James and Anthony Davis being one of, if not the strongest duo in the NBA right now. Over his last nine games, Davis has been on an absolute tear. The All-NBA talent has posted double-doubles in every one of those appearances with 25 points or more in every one. Moreover, he has averaged 35.3/15.6/2.7/1.2/2.9 on 64.8% shooting during that span. Additionally, Davis currently leads the league in rebounds per game and is second in blocks. A tough matchup looms against Evan Mobley and a potential return for Jarrett Allen to the lineup, but Davis has entered the conversation for being unfadeable right now.

Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5)

If you’re looking for a potentially overlooked player that can contend with the slate’s best, it’s Donovan Mitchell. The back and forth between he and Darius Garland on offense can cause headaches on offense, but one of the two is set to dominate here. Mitchell currently leads the team in usage rate at 31.3% with Garland right behind him at 28.3%. Moreover, the same trend lies true in the Cavs’ last five and ten games. Mitchell has a higher upside due to his shotmaking and minutes splits. With the Lakers ranked 28th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, both Mitchell and Garland are firmly in play, but I prefer the former.

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets (-4.5)

Dallas Mavericks (+4.5)

There should be no doubt that Luka Doncic can lead any NBA slate in scoring. Not only that, but he is one of few players in the league who can produce at a level that alters fantasy sports in indescribable ways. However, as good as he is, playing Doncic on DraftKings tonight forces you into an ugly lineups structure. On FanDuel, it is much more doable. Thus, I’ll have exposure to him on the latter rather than the former. It’s a bold stance to take, but you have to plant your flag on small slates. No exposure to this offense on DraftKings, with Doncic firmly in play on FanDuel.

Denver Nuggets (-4.5)

Similarly to Luka Doncic, there is another international star that can shift an NBA slate like only a few in the league could. Nikola Jokic certainly has a sizeable advantage over Dwight Powell and Christian Wood on the inside, but the Mavericks actually rank first in the league against true centers. They collapse the paint well, but this leaves the perimeter open. Thus, Jamal Murray is a great way to get exposure to Denver if you’re not playing Jokic. Over his last five games, Murray has averaged 23.2/3.8/5.6 on 50% shooting. Moreover, he has the second highest usage rate on the team at 29.1% over that span.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/02

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

The majority of the NBA was off yesterday but we have a loaded slate in its return. Multiple teams are dealing with the injury bug, while others are struggling to overcome early season woes. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Despite the day off yesterday, many players have already been ruled out tonight. Moreover, there are lengthly injury reports heading into tonight’s action. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)

Denver Nuggets (+2.5)

We already knew the Nuggets were banged up heading into the season. Jamal Murray was recovering from an ACL tear, while Michael Porter Jr. was healing from a recurring back injury. Now, the latter is out for tonight’s game with a heel injury, which marks his sixth absence this season. In their absence, Nikola Jokic will shoulder the load on offense. Moreover, his support case of Bruce Brown and Aaron Gordon have been playing at high levels this season. However, the interest here lies in Jokic. His opponent currently rank 23rd in the NBA against true centers. Additionally, Jokic has posted a 26.8/11/8.8 scoring line on 66.7% shooting across his last four games, sporting a 28.3% usage rate.

Atlanta Hawks (-2.5)

We hit big on a Trae Young masterclass the other night versus Orlando, but the Hawks rotation is riddled with value tonight. Both John Collins (ankle) and De’Andre Hunter (hip) left last game and did not return. Additionally, the two have already been ruled out for tonight’s game. Thus, we are going to see a heavy dose of AJ Griffin and Jarrett Culver tonight, in addition to Onyeka Okongwu if Clint Capela (ankle) is ultimately ruled out. Although the usage will be modest, the Hawks duo represent some of the best value plays on the NBA slate.

New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (+7.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5)

Even with CJ McCollum likely to return tonight, Zion Williamson is an elite target on tonight’s NBA slate. In the absence of Brandon Ingram, it’s been Williamson who has carried the Pelicans to a 3-1 record over their last four games. Moreover, Zion has posted two 30-point efforts during that span, averaging 25.5/8.5/4.5 on 68.3% shooting. The Spurs currently rank 28th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game and will be without their best defender in Jakob Poeltl.

San Antonio Spurs (+7.5)

The Spurs are heavy underdogs in this game but if they want to keep it close, it will be because of Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson. The latter gets the more favorable matchup on the wing, but the former has been performing exceptionally well as of late. Keldon Johnson faces a Pelicans defense that currently ranks 29th in the NBA against wings, in addition to avoiding a matchup against Herbert Jones since he has been ruled out. However, it is Vassell that is the better of the two targets for tournaments. Across his last seven games, Vassell has posted a 22.3/4.3/3.7 scoring line on 47.4% shooting, including 44% from deep.

Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz (-4.5)

Indiana Pacers (+4.5)

Look out for Myles Turner on tonight’s NBA slate. Not only has the Pacers center been playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor, but he gets a phenomenal matchup as well. On the season, Turner has averaged 17.1/8.3/1.5 on 52.8% shooting. Moreover, he has chipped in nearly 1.5 three-pointers per game, shooting 37.7% from behind the arc. On the defensive side of the ball, Turner is second in the league with 2.6 blocks per game. Utah currently ranks 29th in the NBA against true centers, making this matchup appealing as ever. Be sure to keep an eye on the status of Tyrese Haliburton, who is questionable to play with a groin injury. Should he be ruled out, there is plenty of value to be had with Bennedict Mathurin and TJ McConnell.

Utah Jazz (-4.5)

Exposure to the Jazz offense is enticing tonight. There is only one spot to avoid against the Pacers defense: Myles Turner. The big man is quite the disadvantage for the duo of Kelly Olynyk and Jarred Vanderbilt. Thus, the trio of Lauri Markkenen, Jordan Clarkson, and Collin Sexton are the desired options. By now, you know the kind of season Markkanen has been having and he has the safest floor of the three. However, the guard duo has tremendous upside in this matchup. Indiana struggles mightily against primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and combo guards. Clarkson has 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games, while Sexton has averaged 17.6/2.6/7.2 on 60% shooting over his last five games.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5)
Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5)
Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts