Tuesday offers another six-game slate, so Vote Early and dig into the 11/5 NBA DFS Game Previews & Prop Bets
Pacers at a Glance — 21st in scoring (105.2), 7th in scoring (103.8), 21st in offensive rating (104.3), 11th in defensive rating (103), 22nd in pace (100.8).
PF/C Domantas Sabonis ($8300/DK) is questionable, but with the Pacers playing back-to-backs, chances are Sabonis sits tonight and plays against the Wizards on Wednesday. With PF/C Myles Turner also out out, PF/C Goga Bitadze ($4000/DK) will likely see extended minutes tonight and could be worth a flier. PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon ($8200/DK) is a must-consider on a nightly basis, while SG/SF Jeremy Lamb ($6100/DK) is seeing a spike in his DKP per game totals.
Stud — Brogdon. Dud — SF/PF T.J. Warren ($6100). Sleeper — Bitadze.
Hornets at a Glance — 20th in scoring (105.5), 22nd in scoring defense (112.5), 20th in offensive rating (104.7), 27th in defensive rating (111.7), 24th in pace (100.7).
C Cody Zeller ($6500/DK) offers strong sleeper potential, especially if the Pacers choose to sit Sabonis. He should be a lock for a double-double. PG Terry Rozier ($6900/DK) has become more of a scoring threat in his last four games. Considering the lack of options in Charlotte, I think this is more than just a brief trend. Like Zeller, PF/C P.J. Washington ($6100/DK) has upside tonight.
Stud — Zeller. Dud — SF/PF Miles Bridges ($5400/DK). Sleeper — Washington.
Celtics at a Glance — 17th in scoring (108.6), 5th in scoring (103), 14th in offensive rating (107), 8th in defensive rating (101.4), 16th in pace (101.5).
After a down opener, PG Kemba Walker ($9100/FD) has averaged at least 42.2 FDP in his last four games. PF Jayson Tatum ($8300/FD) is more steady than spectacular. Nothing wrong with that, but I’d choose Walker if you had to build around a Celtics player tonight. SG Jaylen Brown ($6300/FD) is out tonight (illness), so look for more minutes for SG Marcus Smart ($5600/FD), who has been a surprise source of DFS production. PF Daniel Theis ($4200/FD) is a curious play. SF Gordon Hayward ($6900/FD) continues as a good value since the Boston bench is pretty thin.
Stud — Walker. Dud — Smart. Sleeper — Hayward.
Cavaliers at a Glance — 23rd in scoring (105), 19th in scoring defense (111), 23rd in offensive rating (103.8), 22nd in defensive rating (109.8), 20th in pace (101.1).
As long as he is healthy, PF Kevin Love ($9400/FD) is a must-consider. Tonight, he might be more of a must-start. C Tristan Thompson ($8400/FD) isn’t a fluke. The offense is now optimal for him to be more of an option rather than an observer. The blocked shots, however, is a fluke. PG Collin Sexton ($5200/FD) is averaging two assists per game. Uh, I’d like more from my PG, please. Stay far away from PG Darius Garland ($4000/FD) and SF Cedi Osman ($4400/FD).
Stud — Love. Dud — Garland. Sleeper — SF Larry Nance ($5000/FD).
Spurs at a Glance — 14th in scoring (112.8), 15th in scoring defense (109.8), 12th in offensive rating (108.6), 15th in defensive rating (105.8), 11th in pace (103.9).
Any time you have a PG averaging 8.6 rebounds per game to go along with 2.2 steals per contest, you have to pay attention, which is why Dejounte Murray ($6700/DK) is a strong option tonight. SG/SF DeMar DeRozan ($7500/DK) is adding rebounds and assists to his usual solid scoring totals. Run with him while that lasts. Facing Alex Len will be a challenge for PF/C LaMarcus Aldridge ($6800/DK), but must better than what he faced on Sunday contending with Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. SF/PF Rudy Gay ($5200/DK) isn’t shooting well from long range but is doing enough stat-stuffing to merit consideration.
Stud — Murray. Dud — Gay. Sleeper C Jakob Poeltl ($3100/DK).
Hawks at a Glance — 26th in scoring (103.4), 8th in scoring defense (104.4), 25th in offensive rating (102.9), 12th in defensive rating (103.8), 25th in pace (100.5).
PF/C John Collins ($8000/DK) was suspended 25 games on Tuesday, taking away 36.9 DKP and huge presence inside for the Hawks. That dampens the news of PG Trae Young ($9200/DK) returning to the lineup. Expect Young to have a larger Usage rate. The value of PG/SG Deandre’ Bembry ($5300/DK) is hurt as well. With Collins out, rookie C Bruno Fernando ($3200) will likely see a considerable jump in minutes. Keep an eye on how much Len ($4100/DK) to get time, but he is dealing with a rib injury. However, he will play tonight.
Stud– Young. Dud– Bembry. Sleeper– Fernando
Magic at a Glance — 30th in scoring (93.5), 2nd in defense (98.2), 30th in offensive rating (93.5), fifth in defensive rating (100.3), 29th in pace (97.9).
The best play is C Nikola Vucevic ($6800/FD), who’s settling in for his usual 34-36 FDP form. Keep an eye on SF Jonathan Isaac ($6600/FD), who continues to offer blocked shots but can’t be completely trusted due to his inconsistent scoring. I’m still not warm on PF Aaron Gordon ($6400/FD), nor am I feeling good about SG Evan Fournier ($5000/FD).
Stud — Vucevic. Dud — Fournier. Sleeper — Isaac.
Thunder at a Glance — 24th in scoring (104.2), 4th in scoring defense (104.8), 26th in offensive rating (101.5), 4th in defensive rating (99.1), 25th in pace (100.5).
SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8300/FD) is a more confident shooter than he was as a rookie last season. He’s playing well enough defensively to where Gilgeous-Alexander has become a lynchpin behind the Thunder’s top-end defensive effort thus far. PG Chris Paul ($7500/FD) has been more scorer than distributor. As usual, if Danilo Gallinari ($6200/FD) isn’t scoring the ball, he doesn’t offer much in DFS, especially in a game where neither team is a lock to score at least 100 points.
Stud — Gilgeous-Alexander. Dud — Gallinari. Sleeper — SF Hamidou Diallo ($4700/DK).
Lakers at a Glance — 16th in scoring (109.8), 3rd in scoring defense (99.3), 16th in offensive rating (106.7), 1st in defensive rating (96.5), 17th in pace (101.2).
You don’t need me to tell you have to expect from PF/C Anthony Davis ($10,000/DK) and PG/SF LeBron James ($9600/DK). The two combine for 112 DKP, so good luck if you can add both of them. C Dwight Howard ($5100/DK) has been revived in a backup role that allows him to be a defensive monster. SF/PF Kyle Kuzma ($5100/DK) is still getting his legs back under him, so I would stay away for now.
Stud — Davis. Dud — SG/SF Danny Green ($3900/DK). Sleeper — Howard.
Bulls at a Glance — 22nd in scoring (105), 18th in scoring defense (110.3), 22nd in offensive rating (103.8), 18th in defensive rating (109), 18th in pace (101.2).
This probably isn’t the game you want to run with the Bulls, as the Lakers match up well defensively against the young and error-prone Chicago offense. The best option would be PG/SG Zach LaVine ($7300/DK). PF/C Wendell Carter Jr. ($6100/DK) is still battling a thumb injury, while PF/C Lauri Markkanen ($6300/DK) is fighting an injury to his side. I love the upside of all three, but I’d avoid them tonight.
Stud — LaVine. Dud — Markkanen. Sleeper — Carter Jr.
Heat at a Glance — 5th in scoring (117.8), 9th in defensive scoring (106.2), 9th in offensive rating (109.2), 3rd in defensive rating (98.4), 7th in pace (106.1).
SG Jimmy Butler ($9400/FD) has not taken long to establish himself as a dominant presence in Miami, averaging better than 48 DKP per game. PF Bam Adebayo ($8400/FD) is living up the preseason promises and is establishing a dangerous outside-inside combo with himself and Butler. PG Kendrick Nunn ($5600/FD) is starting to slip a bit now that Butler is taken the bulk of the usage rate, while PG Goran Dragic ($5600/FD) is cooled off after a strong start. SF Justice Winslow ($6400/FD) is a game time decision.
Stud — Butler. Dud — Winslow. Sleeper — Nunn.
Nuggets at a Glance — 25th in scoring (103.5), 6th in scoring defense (103.2), 19th in offensive rating (104.8), 13th in defensive rating (104.4), 30th in pace (97.1).
The Nuggets are so boring that they make the Jazz look like the Showtime Lakers of the 80s. C Nikola Jokic ($9200/FD) is in an early slump that continues to burn DFS users. PG Jamaal Murray ($6500/FD) will see lots of Butler tonight, so I’m not sure I’d invest in him.
Stud — Jokic. Dud — SG Gary Harris ($5200/FD). Sleeper — PF Paul Millsap ($5400/FD)
Take Anthony Davis over his 27.5 points per game average. He will live on the free throw line tonight. Take the under on Zach LaVine. He may see more of LeBron James defensively than he may have wanted.
Baseball’s over, kiddies, so the 10/31 NBA DFS Game Previews & Prop Bets will have your undivided attention. It’s just a three-game slate, so the diamond withdrawal will come slowly.
The Heat are a surprising seventh in points per game (118). More surprising is they are third in pace at 107.8, trailing only the Rockets (no shock) and Grizzlies (now be shocked). Miami is just 15th in offensive rating and head into Atlanta to face a Hawks team that is playing better defensively than advertised, as they are 10th in defensive rating.
This should be a good matchup for Jimmy Butler, who is playing in just his second game of the season. Bam Adebayo is also a solid play; both are the only Heat players with Player Efficiency Ratings (PER) better than 20. The opposite is with Justise Winslow, whose PER is far worse (10.49) than expected. Not to worry, though: Winslow is out tonight. Rookie Tyler Herro is getting a lot of minutes with little true bang for the buck, but this is a good matchup that favors him.
I don’t feel good about Goran Dragic, who I feel is a bit overrated even in a bench role, but in a three-game slate, the options are limited. He’ll get his share of ownership. With Butler back and his track record of high usage rates (27.5 in his season debut), everyone has to follow his lead.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Butler and Adebayo. Oh, wait…you’re waiting for other names? Keep waiting.
The Hawks are living a charmed life in that Trae Young’s MRI on his injured ankle delivered good news, but they will be without him for tonight’s game. That means 38.2% of usage is up for grabs. Evan Turner has a bad Achilles and will be a game time decision, so it means that rookies Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter and Tyrone Wallace will have an opportunity to eat away at those minutes.
John Collins is the easy play here, but Jabari Parker is an interesting sleeper that I am tempted to add in a lineup or two as his minutes will get a boost in the wake of Young’s absence. Wallace’s 25.82 PER is the result of 14 garbage minutes, but he’s going to get a chance to see what he can do since Young is out until next week. Hunter, Alex Len and Reddish each have PERs under 10. That’s three members of your starting five. It’s going to get awfully ugly without Young, who’s going to really define the phrase Most Valuable Player.
Atlanta is 24th in offensive rating with Young in the lineup. Let that fester for a moment.
Putting it Bluntly: You are a sadist if you’re playing Showdown with this game. Without Young, the Hawks are going to look more like a solid ACC squad than an actual NBA team.
Thus far, the Nuggets look like they’re sleepwalking into the season. Denver is 22nd in scoring but sixth in scoring defense, making them look a more flashy version of the Jazz. Actually, that’s an insult to Utah since the Nuggets are dead last in pace at 96.1.
Look, I heart Nikola Jokic like the next DFSer, but looking at them on Tuesday made me feel like I was watching a game in the late 1990s (ie, the apex of the NBA’s “Dead Ball” era). I won’t have to worry about that since the Nuggets will sit him out tonight. That means lots of Mason Plumlee, and I would be in.
Since this is a three-game slate, I suppose we have to consider some Nuggets. I like Jamaal Murray as the best option to play, and I do feel good about Paul Millsap. Both are moderately priced and you figure the Nuggets will get their offensive act together. Will Barton is also a nice play here now that he’s grabbing boards to go along with his offense.
Putting it Bluntly: Jokic will break out. It just won’t be tonight.
That the Pelicans are 28th in defensive rating should be encouraging to run with the Nuggets tonight, but New Orleans is also fourth in pace, so the bet here is that they will make the Nuggets dance to their beat. They’ll have Jrue Holiday back in the lineup after he missed the past two games, but it’s doubtful Derrick Favors will go tonight with a sore right knee.
Brandon Ingram is going to be a star, and his first four games are showing why I think that. Freed from the circus in LA, he’s also in a system that’s allowing his skills to manifest. He’s not quite an every game add, but I’ll want him in the bulk of my lineups tonight. This is also a good play for Lonzo Ball, as he and Jamaal Murray will make this fun if the pace is in favor of the Pelicans. Josh Hart returns to the bench after filling in for Holiday the past two games.
I’d really love to see more Jaxon Hayes, who looked impressive in his only game played. May not happen tonight, but he’s got some interesting tools I’d love to see more of.
Putting it Bluntly: Play Ingram. I really hope the Pelicans make the Nuggets get out of their comfort zone and make them play a more uptempo style.
Fifth in offensive rating, the Spurs are also seventh in pace. This is a well-balanced team SA has put together, one that has a pair of big guns to bolster a DFS roster along with a handful of players that can be productive in nights where there is a short slate of games. Lookie here, tonight is one of those nights.
LaMarcus Aldridge is 34, but looks like a 27-year-old with the way he’s playing thus far. I’d certainly want him tonight. DeMar DeRozan has looked like DeMar DeRozan over the past couple of games, but the player to grab is Dejounte Murray. Injuries have limited him early in his career, but we’re starting to see why the Spurs had no problem letting the door split on Tony Parker when he left last year. Murray is hitting near 30 in PER with a usage rate of 29. His strong start isn’t a fluke. This is a future All-Star.
Jakob Poeltl serves his purpose. He’s nasty, physical and has a nice R/40 rate. However, Trey Lyles would be a better fit for the offense. That a player with freakish talent like Lyles has yet to get a legit shot is beyond me. Place him on a slag team and Lyles would be getting 28-30% usage. Rudy Gay is just Rudy Gay: solid and damn unappreciated. Bryn Forbes is also an interesting play here.
Putting it Bluntly: I smell some stacking here.
Since Kawhi Leonard sat out on Wednesday, he’ll be more than ready to take on his old team tonight. Only the Rockets have a better offensive rating than the Clippers, but they are 25th in defensive rating. The Clippers run a slower pace than the Spurs, as they are 19th compared to San Antonio’s seventh-place spot in the category.
Lou Williams is scoring at nearly 23 points per game without playing more than 29 minutes per night. Montrezl Harrell got into foul trouble in Wednesday’s loss to the Jazz, playing only 14 minutes. There’s some gold in Ivica Zubac, but we’re not going to so long as he and Harrell are sharing minutes at the 5. JaMychal Green looked solid on Wednesday, but won’t be much of a factor with Leonard in the lineup.
Patrick Patterson, Landry Shamet and Patrick Beverley are each below 10 in PER. That’s unnerving when 3/5ths of your lineup is playing at the level of a back of the bench player.
Putting it Bluntly: It’s Leonard’s show. The bench is actually carrying the Clippers, though.
Goran Dragic — Averaging 19.3 points per game off the bench, Dragic is looking like the Eastern Conference version of Lou Williams.
Jabari Parker — He’s managing just 2.8 rebounds per game, but Parker will be needed to help fill the void left by the injury to Trae Young. That will mean more minutes off the bench.
Verdict — Take the under on Dragic, but take the over on Parker.
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