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Dalvin Cook

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in one of the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 15 NFL DFS MVP cand...

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Welcome to the Week 14 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season.  This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend.   My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend. 

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets.  Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production.  The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value. 

Chris Godwin now has back to back weeks with at least 15 targets.  After getting targeted 17 times in week 13 Godwin saw another 15 targets in week 14.  And for the second straight week he broke the 100 yard mark.  Although it was a third consecutive week where he did not find the end zone, Godwin fantasy owners have to be happy with his level of production.  Good ole Tom Brady continues to look his way and you have to think we a match up vs. the Saints next weekend, we’ll see more of the same.

We need to start talking more about Hunter Renfrow.  Since their bye in week 8, Renfrow has seen at least 9 targets in all but 1 game.  Over the last 2 weeks he’s been targeted 24 times.  He now has 3 straight weeks of at least 100 yards and this week he scored his first touchdown since week 10.  The man is currently on a mission and is quickly becoming one of Derek Carr’s favorite weapons.

After a little bit of a mid season swoon, Davante Adams is back folks.  Coming off the bye Adams exploded for 121 yards yesterday against the bears.  He was targeted 13 times, the most targets he’s had since week 9 against the Chiefs.  For the second time in 3 three weeks Adams finished the game with 2 touchdowns.  Up next week is a big game vs. a Ravens team that is seeing its season spiral out of control.    

Running Back Targets

Opportunity came knocking at Royce Freeman’s door on Sunday.  With David Johnson ruled out prior to the game with Covid and Rex Burkhead leaving the game early with an injury, someone had to take snaps next to Davis Mills and that was Royce Freeman. 

Freeman more than doubled his season’s worth of targets with 8 on Sunday.  Those 8 were more than any other back in the game.  He actually did a little bit of work with them as he finished with 6 catches and 51 yards.  This will probably be a 1 and done though depending on injuries and Covid protocols.

Devin Singletary was another guy that saw productivity come out of nowhere in terms of receiving.  After having been held to just 6 targets between weeks 10 and 13, Singletary was targeted 7 times on Sunday.  He also made the most of them as he caught 6 and went for 37 yards.  With the Bills seemingly down the entire game, Allen through often and Singletary was a beneficiary of that. 

Tight End Targets

George Kittle is on an extremely impressive run right now.  While he didn’t top his week 13 output, he came pretty darn close.  After going for 181 yards in week 13, he went for 151 yards yesterday.  His 15 targets yesterday were the most he’s seen all year and his 13 catches were also the most.  Kittle found the end zone once and now has touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games.  This combo of Garoppolo and Kittle has been a ton of fun to watch.

No Lamar Jackson, no problem for Mark Andrews.  He continues to be the main target for whoever is behind center for the Ravens.  Andrews’ 11 targets this weekend were the most he’s seen since week 5 against the Colts.  His late touchdown almost helped the Ravens come back from what seemed like an insurmountable deficit.  The Ravens look to get back on track with a tough assignment next week against the Packers.

Quarterback Target Share

Matt Ryan only threw the ball 27 times this weekend, but the majority of those went to non-receivers.  Of his 27 passes, 19 went to either running backs or tight ends.  He targeted 3 people 6 times each, 2 of which were Patterson and Pitts.  The loss of Ridley has really hit the team hard in terms of where to pass.  Week in and week out Ryan has been forced to use his running backs and tight ends in the pass game. 

Jimmy Garoppolo has a favorite weapon and it’s not even close.  Garoppolo threw the ball 37 times on Sunday, with 15 going to Kittle.  He was by far the most targeted person in the passing game.  The next closest person was Brandon Aiyuk at 11.  If it isn’t broken, no need to fix it.  Look for that type of game plan to continue in the weeks to come.

When you have a main receiving corps of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, is the really a reason to throw to anyone else?  Of Big Ben’s 39 passes on Thursday night, 19 went to the duo of Claypool and Johnson.  Only 6 of his passes went to non-receivers.  While the Steelers didn’t win on Thursday, it wasn’t due to a lack of offense.  This is a game plan that works well for Roethlisberger and it’s something we’ll see often as the season winds down.

Running Back Touches

For the first time in weeks we got to see a healthy Alvin Kamara.  Boy was it fun to watch.  Kamara carried the ball 27 times in week 14 and was extremely successful.  For the first time since week 4 against the Giants, Kamara broke the 100 yard mark.  His 27 carries were also the most he’s had all year.  The stars aligned for Kamara this week as he got to face the Jets and his back up running back was out due to covid.  Next week he gets a much tougher assignment in the Buccaneers.  

After sitting out week 13 with a shoulder injury, Dalvin Cook came back with vengeance in week 14.  Playing in a prime time game against the Steelers, Cook showed off a skillset only a few have.  He carried the Vikings offense with 205 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns.  Cook had season highs in every aspect of his game.  Most carries, most yards, and most touchdowns.  He should wear that shoulder harness more often.


The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

With the Eagles on a bye in week 14 we’ll need to find another team to talk about.  With Taysom Hill behind center and having an injured finger on his throwing hand, the Saints went with a run heavy offense.  They ran the ball almost 70% of the time this weekend.  While the Jets have many weaknesses, the run defense is one of the biggest.  The Saints finished with 44 run plays and over 200 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns. 

The Jaguars are a mess.  There’s no other way to put it.  They were down seemingly from the start of the game.  With Meyer refusing to use his star running back, Trevor Lawrence was forced to throw the ball more than 80% of the time on Sunday.  He threw the ball 40 times.  You would think that many passes you’d have a respectable final line.  Nope, Lawrence finished with only 221 yards and 4 INT’s.  Urban Meyer, if you’re reading this: Give. The. Ball. To. James. Robinson

Inside Look Wrap Up

Week 14 was another fun weekend of football.  We saw some solid performances from people we’ve come to expect, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and George Kittle.  And some we normally wouldn’t expect it from, Rashaad Penny, Rashod Bateman, and Brandon Cooks.  Make sure to use our

Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 14 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article. Week ...

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We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12

I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.

***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***


Derrick Henry, Titans, ($8,800DK/$8,900FD) 8.12% Own:

While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers, ($5,800DK/$6,100FD) 5.14% Own:

All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.

Miles Sanders, Eagles, ($6,500DK/$6,600) 2.8% Own:

I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.

Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds


James Robinson, Jaguars, ($6,400DK/$5,900FD):

Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings, ($9,100DK/$9,400FD)

If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.

Antonio Gibson, Football Team, ($5,900DK/$7,000)

The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.

Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon

It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Christmas Day showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $18,000, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Alvin Kamara (DK $17,100, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $12,900, FD $12,000)

FD/DK Value: Latavius Murray (DK $4,800 FLEX, FD $10,000), Irv Smith, Jr. (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $7,500)

DK Punts: Marquez Callaway (DK $200 FLEX), Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,600)

Welcome to a special Christmas Day Showdown edition of the preview!

The chalk in this game will be mostly a battle of RBs, with Dalvin Cook having the edge based on his logged 2020 ceiling of 50 points and his matchup-proof reputation. The red one in the matchup rank will scare a few folks off, so I’m still buying in all formats – looking at about 50% ownership as the CPT on FD and slightly less than that on DK. Alvin Kamara could be a sneaky pivot, although Cook is the safer option in cash games. On DK, it will take some finagling to squeeze both Cook and Kamara in, but I’m going to try. Latavius Murray still gets his fair share of touches, too – and he’s facing his old team for you Narrative Street whizbangs.

With Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith out, we can look to the Saints WRs and TEs for value, paying particular attention to Emmanuel Sanders, Lil’Jordan Humphrey (I can’t tell you how long I’ve waited for a reason to type out his name) and Juwan Johnson. Keep any eye on the status of Marquez Callaway, who was just activated from IR. He could be a great value if active, which would slightly ding both Humphrey and Johnson.

I don’t mind Josh Hill’s minimum price in like 2/10 GPPs, and the right kicker and QB – be it a somewhat rusty Drew Brees or the always compelling Kirk Cousins could round out a team with plenty of upside.

Justin Jefferson has gone a couple of weeks without a receiving TD, so I think he’ll notch another one, but his price point makes Adam Thielen the better value with a similar ceiling, as he’s about $600 cheaper on DK.

I’ll have some shares of the Saints DST in some builds that focus on Cook/Kamara/Saints value WR/TE and avoid Cousins and the two big Minnesota WRs, but the Vikings, especially since the Vikings have allowed DSTs to score about two thirds more fantasy points than the average opposing DST over the last three weeks.

Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Dalvin Cook and Kamara in GPPs, preferably together.

DON’T: Forget about the Saints DST in some builds. I’d shooting for about 35-40 percent GPP ownership.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Alvin Kamara
  3. Drew Brees
  4. Adam Thielen
  5. Justin Jefferson
  6. Kirk Cousins
  7. Latavius Murray
  8. Irv Smith, Jr.
  9. Emmanuel Sanders
  10. Jared Cook
  11. Saints DST (bump up three spots for GPPs)
  12. Lil’Jordan Humphrey
  13. Juwan Johnson
  14. Marquez Callaway (if active)
  15. Chad Beebe
  16. Will Lutz
  17. Dan Bailey
  18. Tyler Conklin
  19. Vikings DST
  20. Taysom Hill
  21. Josh Hill
  22. Adam Trautman
  23. Ameer Abdullah
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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $20,400, FD $17,500)

Pivot: Kirk Cousins (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $14,700, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $15,000, FD $14,000)

The easy choice for the captain chalk is Dalvin Cook, who’s season low is 17.1 DK points in Week 2 against Indy. This season he’s scored 21.8, 17.1, 29.9, 31.6, 19.9, BYE, INJ, 51.6 and 42.2 DK points – numbers bolstered by the fact that he’s scored at least one TD in every game he’s played this season (12 TDs in seven games).  He seems matchup-proof at this point.

We could pivot to Kirk Cousins if assume the Bears will stack the box against Cook, and while Cousins isn’t the most reliable real-world QB (or fantasy producer), he’s notched four weeks with at least 20 DK points and he has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal: Cook, veteran WR and PPR maven Adam Thielen, talented rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and stalwart TE Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikings are without Irv Smith Jr. this week, which likely dings their red zone efficacy, but the gloriously man-bunned Tyler Conklin could soak up a few extra targets in his stead. Conklin played some in 2019 and has yet to be targeted this season, but he’s the only other active TE on the Vikings roster. He’s dirt cheap and probably not a guy I’d use in more than 1/10 GPPs.

Additionally, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that capable RB Alexander Mattison sees a few additional carries this week, as Cook has logged 30 and 22 carries in his last two games. Outside of that lot and a smattering of the Vikings DST mixed into my builds, I don’t see too many other impact players for Minnesota.

The Bears have a team total under 20 in this game, which is never a good sign for fantasy production.  Nick Foles has his moments, so he’s the most obvious choice for a contrarian builds – which have merit based on both game script and the Vikings’ record against opposing QBs.

I’d love to plug Foles and Allen Robinson into some lineups right away, but AR2 is questionable with a knee injury and we could see more targets heading the ay of both Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney. Mooney, even as the Bears deep threat, might even be the safer play of the two given Miller’s spotty performance this season – though Miller has a been a favorite feast-or-famine GPP play for me over the past couple of seasons since he seems to make some truly amazing catches when he’s on his game.

Bears TE Jimmy Graham is another relatively safe fantasy option that maintains some upside, and the Vikings yield about a third more production to opposing TEs than the average NFL team. He’ll be a staple of my builds in all formats.

The backfield is a mess, with the team promoting Lamar Miller from the practice squad to help Ryan Nall with RB duties. Miller hasn’t taken the field since 2018 because of an ACL injury and he was cut from the Patriots roster this summer. He could be a free space at just $200 on DK, but he’ll likely split work with Nall and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 10. This relatively ugly committee should still be led by Nall, with David Montgomery still in concussion protocol and ruled out for Week 10.

Lastly, there’s no way we can omit the Bears DST – a strength of this team and a glaring GPP possibility when we’re honest about the fallibility of Cousins and the 3-5 Vikings in general. I’ll have shares of both them and K Cairo Santos in GPPs.

Week 10 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget about the defenses – as both QBs have been known to look downright foolish on the football field.

DO: Use Dalvin Cook somewhere in your lineup – unless you’re planning on him getting injured, which is both mean and dumb.

DON’T: Be afraid to completely fade the Vikings passing game in your “Cook at CPT” builds.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Kirk Cousins
  3. Adam Thielen
  4. Nick Foles
  5. Allen Robinson (if active)
  6. Justin Jefferson
  7. Darnell Mooney
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. Ryan Nall
  10. Kyle Rudolph
  11. Anthony Miller
  12. Lamar Miller
  13. Vikings DST
  14. Dan Bailey
  15. Cairo Santos
  16. Bears DST
  17. Alexander Mattison
  18. Cordarrelle Patterson
  19. Riley Ridley
  20. Olabisi Johnson
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Win Daily Show 6.12 | PGA, NFL, and Soccer

On the Win Daily Show 6.12 Sia (@SiaNejad) and Michael (@michaelrasile1) get to chat about the first day of the Charles Schwab Challenge! Which of Sia’s plays did well, how the bets are looking, and what our DFS lineups look like after one day! 

They also look at the Futures Bets for the tournament and where there is some value in placing some money!

There, of course, is also some NFL News to get to. Dalvin Cook is looking to hold out and they both agree to pay him, but not too much! Todd Gurley passes his physical and is a reminder of maybe why you shouldn’t pay a running back? News cycle is very slow, so they talk about whether DeSean Jackson will be the Eagles number one target this coming season. (Probably not.)

Rich (@JFan303) then comes on the show to discuss all the soccer that will be played this weekend! Bundesliga, Serie A, and La Liga will all be around for our betting, DFS, and watching enjoyment!

Listen to the episode below!

You can also listen on these platforms below!
Apple Podcasts

Austin’s article for Juventus vs. AC Milan Showdown Slate -> https://windailysports.com/6-12-serie-a-showdown-juventus-vs-ac-milan/

Austin’s article for Hoffenheim vs Red Bull Leipzig -> https://windailysports.com/bundesliga-showdown-hoffenheim-vs-red-bull-leipzig/

Rich’s article on the La Liga 6.12 Slate -> https://windailysports.com/6-12-la-liga-valencia-derby/

Win Daily Sports Discord Chat -> https://discord.com/invite/KEFD2Kr

Make sure to follow Win Daily, too!

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NFL Player Total Prop Bets

Sia and Michael make some NFL Player Total Prop Bets for the 2020 season.
You can find lines and over/unders at DraftKings, FanDuel, and Monkey Knife Fight!

Sia’s Picks

Drew Lock over 3375.5 (-110 on DK)

  • @StixPicks likes this one too (needs to average 211 yards per game)
  • Defense isn’t good enough to be lockdown so Drew will have all four quarters to throw the ball in most games
  • All kinds of weapons with Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Sutton and Fant
  • Plus two RB’s that can catch in Lindsay and Melvin

Kenyan Drake over 1050.5 rushing yards (-110 on DK)

  • Hate RB props because of injury risk but this one seems worth it. 
  • No major competition for Kenyan (Chase Edmonds is backup)
  • Arizona continues to add weapons on the outside which should free up more space
  • If Kyler runs and Read-Option it’ll give freeze the LBs and give Drake the alley he needs to make one cut and fly.
  • Note Jason likes the value in Arizona at 60 to 1.  If you look at schedule they can get to the playoffs. Tough but doable.
  • Note Kyler passing prop is 3950.5. He probably gets there but like this one better.

Davante Adams over 1200.5 yards (-110 on DK)

  • 997 yards in 12 games last year.  Couple of which he was hobbled
  • 2018 he played 15 games and got 1386 yards
  • GB going to be more of a running team this year BUT Davante is a lock for major targets if healthy.  If he plays 14 games he clears this number.  13 games and it’s still possible.
  • He’s still only 27
  • Last two games (playoffs) he caught 9 of 10 for 138 and 8 of 11 for 160.  Expect a few dud games from Davante but enough huge ones to hit the number

Michael’s Picks

Drew Brees Passing Yards o/u – 4049.5 yds – UNDER -112 (FanDuel)

  • Hasn’t hit 4000 yards since 2017. 
  • Another year older.
  • Hurt the last two seasons and Taysom Hill comes in to throw the ball sometimes
  • Based on defensive efficiency for 2020 Saints offense is in the bottom half of the league (23rd)
  • Also harder based on 2020 SOS from Vegas Win Totals (23rd)
  • Balanced run/pass attack, not quite what we remember when they were throwing the ball 650 times a year. 
    • Last two years: 2019 – 581 to 407; 2018 – 519 to 471

Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards o/u – 1160.5 – OVER -110 (DraftKings)

  • Finally healthy last year, only missed two games both towards the end of the season
  • Rushing Def against in the top half of the league. If receivers can do anything theyll be able to run as much as they’d like
  • Stephanski is leaving but Kubiak had the heaviest hand in creating that offense last year.
  • Strength of schedule is easier than average, hopefully leading to more leads late in games and opportunities to run out the clock.
  • Nick thinks Mattison and Boone are going to take away carries, but I think Cook hits the over here

Henry Ruggs III Receiving Yards o/u – 740.5 – OVER -112 (FanDuel)

  • No other wide receivers there…
  • Route runner not just a straight line speed guy
  • Darren Waller TE was their leading receiver last year with 90 catches for 1145 yrd – most likely some regression there
  • No wide receiver topped 50 catches – Renfrow had 49
    • Immediately comes in as the best receiver on the team
    • Averaged 17.5 yr/r – if he averages 3 catches a game for 17.5 yards he beats out the 740.5 total
  • Bowden will be more of a gadget play
  • Never topped 750 in college, but also had 3 other incredible receivers on that team and didn’t need to play all that much in most second halves

Go ahead and place your bets  👉 👉 👉 DraftKings and FanDuel

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