Tag:

Dalvin Cook

DFS: Final Injury Report

4 years ago

written by

We’ve arrived to the final “normal” week of the regular season. It will be normal in terms of starters who are expected to play and contribute. Week 17 will bring a whole new host of opportunities to cash due to second-teamers running the show, but this week I’ll discuss the injuries that will affect us this Saturday through Monday. Note that all of the following prices are from DraftKings. Let’s get into the DFS: Final Injury Report

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Dalvin Cook ($8,100)

In Week 16 it seems that Cook dislocated his shoulder. My tweet below will give a better description of what happened. The bottom line is that when this happens damage occurs to the labrum, which helps to hold the shoulder joint in place. Cook has damaged his labrum twice before so this is not a new injury, which counter-intuitively is an advantage. When a person has this kind of recurring instability issue, most of the damage is done after the first dislocation.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1206356906325037056?s=20

In fact, a study in 2018 found that 92% of NFL players who had a shoulder instability injury (subluxation or dislocation) were able to return that same season. Players who had a subluxation (i.e. shoulder dislocated partially but went back on its own) returned to play at a median at zero weeks. This means they didn’t miss any time. The players who had a complete dislocation (required some pushing and pulling to put back) were able to play at a median of three weeks. This means half of them came back before three weeks and half of them came back after three weeks. The downside? Almost half of these players (47%) re-injured the shoulder once they returned.

The question is this: will the Vikings put Cook out there knowing he’s at a major risk for a recurrence that will almost certainly land him on the IR? They can either risk-it-for-the-biscuit for a shot at clinching a playoff spot or allow Cook to heal up for a few weeks before the playoffs begin. A classic case of what “should” a team do versus what *will* a team do? Check back with me for updates on Cook’s practice report but even if he’s active I cannot imagine using Cook in cash games or tournaments due to his volatility.

Alexander Mattison ($5,400)

Next on DFS: Final Injury Report Mattison’s last carry in Week 14 happened with 2:08 left in the 4th quarter. He took a handoff to the right and was tackled with both his ankles in an awkward position. Although this is admittedly speculation, my hypotheses are this:

Eversion ankle sprain to his right ankle and lateral “low” ankle sprain to the left.
High ankle sprain to the right and lateral “low” ankle sprain to the left.
Isolated lateral ankle sprain to the left.

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1207109532280852480?s=20

If all Mattison did was pick up a low ankle sprain to his left ankle, he could return to play this week with minimal concerns (relative to the other two types of injuries) so long as he gets in at least one full practice by Saturday. Even if Mattison is active without Cook, I’m not confident he’ll dominate the snaps and be healthy enough to produce with Mike Boone ($,900) chomping at the bit. The Vikings have shown they have no issues spreading the snaps around.

So what does this all mean? I’m only confident in using one Vikings running back under one specific set of circumstances: Mike Boone is both Mattison and Cook are active. Otherwise, the entire backfield is a fade in cash and tournaments

Update: There’s nothing new to report on the Vikings backfield other than confirmation of what was projected earlier this week: Alexander Mattison has a high ankle sprain, Dalvin Cook needs time off, and Mike Boone is a smash play and money saver this week. Obviously he’ll be big time chalk, so try sneaking in Ameer Abdullah into a few tournament lineups.

Dak Prescott ($6,400)

Prescott is dealing with finger sprains, a wrist sprain, and now apparently a shoulder issue. The Cowboys reported his MRI is “clean” but as we know from a year of injury reports from me, the MRI correlates very poorly with how an athlete feels. He could be in significant pain. Given the set of circumstances working against Dak with all of his injuries to the throwing shoulder, he’s a cash game fade for me. There’s no reason to take on the risk of re-injury to the shoulder this week. To make matters worse, Dak actually sat out of practice today while Cooper Rush took first-team reps. So, even if Dak is active, pivot to Carson Wentz ($5,800) in tournaments who has had no choice but to shoulder the offensive load for the Eagles in a crucial game to determine the NFC ~~Least~~ East.

Update: Dak was not listed on the final injury report but make no mistake about it, he’s injured. The A.C. joint injury he sustained takes at least a week to partially heal. There’s no plausible way he is 100% considering he missed an entire week of practice for the first time in his career. He is not a cash game play this week.

D.J. Chark ($6,300)

After rolling away(literally) from Week 14 in a walking boot and a scooter, it seems Chark has risen from the dead and is not running routes and cutting hard without restrictions. This is a head-scratcher to me as usual, a rolling scooter is a sign of the IR for players. Whatever the case may be monitoring his practice reports and only use him in cash if he can get in a full practice before Sunday.

Josh Jacobs ($6,700)

Last week I didn’t expect Jacobs to be active but he indeed was and took on a full workload. The result was that against a bottom two rushing defense and bottom five passing defense Jacobs totaled just 89 rushing yards on 24 attempts and two receptions for 20 yards. Now that he’s been officially ruled out for Week 16, it’s evident that I was a week early on Jacobs (read my breakdown on him from Week 15).

DeAndre Washington ($4,000) will be the chalk so, consider a pivot to Keenan Allen ($6,300) against these pathetic Raiders linebackers who won’t be able to slow him down out of the slot.

Update: Jacobs was officially ruled out early in the week, and Jalen Richard is a tournament play in a game the Raiders are seven point dogs in.

JuJu Smith Schuster

JuJu was finally a full participant in practice with no setbacks this week, which is only slightly encouraging given the long road he’s had since a presumed MCL/meniscus issue dating back to Week 11. You can fire him up in tournaments as a contrarian play.

Joe Mixon

Mixon had a setback early in the week with a calf issue as he went from full practice on Wednesday, to partial on Thursday and back to full on Friday. This calf issue is only mildly concerning and theoretically shouldn’t affect Mixon’s production. Just keep in mind the achilles is always at risk here but it appears he’s doing just fine.

Thanks for reading DFS: Final Injury Report. Check back later in the week with me for definitive injury fades/plays.

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4 years ago 0 comment

Week 15 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 15 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

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Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Chris Carson, SEA at CAR

DK ($7,500) FD ($7,400)

Normally, lock-n-load cash game RB plays are either expensiveor really cheap, but we’ve got an excellent value play in Carson that’s prettysafe and won’t cost you too much on either site. With Rashad Penny done for theyear, Carson will get elite volume in a smash spot – making this a prime opportunityto eat the chalk and move on with the rest of your lineup.

Leonard Fournette, JAC atOAK

DK ($7,600) FD ($7,700)

Last week I reiterated that Fournette is a weekly lock for 20+touches, and now he’s seen a total of 29 targets over the past three weeks. He’sfacing an Oakland defense that’s been especially vulnerable to rushing TDs overthe past few weeks and there’s no game script that kills this guy’sinvolvement. His floor is still a robust 12-15 DK points and he’s got 25-30-pointupside on both sites.

Also consider:Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry (questionable)

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. SEA

DK ($10,000) FD ($10,400)

McCaffrey got back over 20 DK points last week but faces a toughSeattle defense that’s among the top 10 in the league against the run. He’sstill priced at $10K or more on both sites so I’ll be avoiding him in cashgames – putting him on the radar in GPPs where we could get an elite player ina tougher matchup with low ownership.

Dalvin Cook, MIN at LAC

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)

We’ve lost some of the 20+ upsides that Cook showed us early in the season, but this is a great chance for him to get right and bust out with a big game. Cook said he came out of Week 14 feeling “healthy,” which was a concern because of the chest injury. He’s now scored TDs in four straight and should be a focal point of the offense with a 25-point upside facing the Chargers.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. MIA

DK ($7,700) FD ($8,300)

Barkley represents decent GPP value on the main slate in awinnable matchup. If he can’t break out for a big day against the Dolphins, I’mafraid he’s just not what we’ve been hoping he’d be for this Giants offense. He’shad just three games with 20+ DK points this year and just two 100-yard rushinggames, but Week 15 is his best matchup of the season.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. CHI

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,800)

Jonesexploited a weak Redskins run defense to compilea season-high rushing yardage total last week, rushing 16 times for 134and a TD, adding 6-58-0 on seven targets in the passing game. He’ll be a focalpoint of the Packers offense this week against the Bears as well, and he’s gotmassive upside despite what I would hope would be lower ownership in a “red”matchup.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200)

I included him in this space last week and he went nuts, rushing forover 100 yards and adding 5-112-1 receiving for 37.3 DK points! I really thinkthat Ekeler is matchup-proof and needs to be included in GPPs at his pricepoint, regardless of the presence of Melvin Gordon. IF anything, he could see afew more targets this week against a decent Vikings run defense.

Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Phillip Lindsay, DEN at KC

DK ($5,600) FD ($6,400)

I don’t see a scenario where Lindsay doesn’t get a lot of touchesfacing the Chiefs, so he’s a viable option in GPPs and even some cash games inWeek 15. It’s been a while since he’s had a GPP-winning breakout (Week 5 atLAC), but this is a spot where I’m comfortable buying shares of him and gettingahead of the field at 25-30 percent personal ownership.

James White, NE at CIN

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,800)

The price has come up since his big Week 13 performance (and he’sa tough fit on FD at $6,800), but White looks like he could have some scoringupside this week against a bad Bengals defense. It’s possible Belichick dialsdown into a running game heavier on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, but White hasmaintained enough involvement (aside from the Dallas game) to warrant considerationin GPPs on DK.

Patrick Laird, MIA at NYG

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,500)

Laird is not a stud running back who’s probablygoing to get you 25+ this week, but he’s really the only guy the Dolphins trustright now and he’s in a decent matchup. He rushed for 48 yards on 15carries against the Jets last week and hauled in 4-38-0 on five targets. TheGiants are similarly putrid in their defensive depth and could see Laird notch75 plus total yards and a score – making him a decent value play in allformats.

Additional plays: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis (if Henry inactive or limited)

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Lets go with what could be some heavy volume for a couple of RBs in good spots in this Week 15 game with Phillip Lindsay and LeSean McCoy, adding Tyreek Hill to the mix. These guys should easily total 48.5 fantasy points barring an injury to one of them.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 14 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

We’ve got your NFL Week 14 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

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Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ATL

DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET

DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)

Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.

Derrick Henry, TEN at OAK

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)

Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.

Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. WAS

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)

Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.LAC

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)

Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.

Nick Chubb,CLE vs. CIN

DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)

Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.

Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. SF

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)

Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)

Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC at NE

DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)

McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs.DET

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)

It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson

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Christian McCaffrey, Devonta Freeman and D.J. Moore are in great spots to bust out for huge fantasy days this week (especially with Greg Olsen out for Carolina), so go big or go home with this 3x bet!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injury Fades and Plays

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Wow. The days leading up to Week 14 kick off have been full of injury drama and news revelations. I’ll touch on the Dalvin Cook saga, Josh Jacobs’ shoulder, Evan Engram’s dance with the practice report (and DFS players’ hearts) and other players’ status in this DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

There is a good amount of confusion surrounding Cook’s situation, and many DFS players aren’t sure how to view him. It is a bit ridiculous that Cook suffered an injury severe enough to rule him out on Monday night, but is no longer on the practice report. Not only that but when the cameras panned to him and the trainers, it was evident Cook was having an emotional response to the injury indicating that it was extremely painful for him. My brief twitter conversation with Dr. Jesse Morse is below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1203085288358268928?s=20

Situations like this are exactly why injury analysts are crucial. Below I’ll outline possible outcomes involving Cook and Alexander Mattison ($5,100).

Dalvin Cook starts, plays approximately half of the snaps (he averages just around 75% normally) and sees about half of his touches. Mattison sees the other half but takes over the goal line/red zone opportunities to protect Cook’s SC joint and has the bigger day.
Cook and Mattison split touches, snaps, and fantasy points rendering each other usable options, but no ceiling for either.
Cook is “dummy active” and sees well below half the touches, Mattison takes the bulk of the work and has a big day against the Lions’ lowly rush defense.

Ultimately, this situation makes Cook a fade in cash, but at $5,100 Mattison warrants consideration in cash simply because any way you slice it, he’ll more than likely see an increased workload.

Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs is not a cash option this week, period. He came out and admitted he has a fractured shoulder, which can help to explain his lack of passing game involvement if this has been a season-long injury. To make matters worse in DFS, he did not practice this week until a very limited session on Friday. He’s also a bit pricey against the middle of the road Titans and if the Raiders continue to give up points by the dozen, Jacobs can easily be game-scripted out. The only player I’m considering in this game is Ryan Tannehill ($7,300).

Le’Veon Bell ($7,300)

Bell missed Thursday and Friday practice with an illness, which is enough for me to completely fade him from a health perspective. We’ve been down this road with Tyler Lockett in Week 13 who followed the same pattern and saw a season-low in targets and snap share. Bell, if active, could be dealing with residual fatigue and dehydration that will cap his touches and production. Instead, I’m pivoting to the Miami passing game that has been on fire lately and is bolstered by the fact that star safety Jamal Adams has already been ruled out with an ankle injury.

The rest of the players in the DFS Injury Fades and Plays are tournament plays and only cash considerations for those who abide by the risk-it-biscuit ideology.

Darwin Thompson ($5,200)

Thompson is not a viable cash option but has a chance to be a slate breaker in tournaments. With the loss of Darrel Williams to the IR and Damien Williams still recovering from a ribs injury, Thompson vaults into the (basically) co-starter position alongside LeSean McCoy ($6,100). Given that the Chiefs signed perennial just-a-guy Spencer Ware, I expect Thompson to see enough work to warrant free square status this week against the Patriots.

David Njoku ($4,900)

Njoku should be completely healthy from a wrist fracture he suffered in Week Two and is a middle of the road option against the lowly Bengals defense this week. From a health perspective, he should be more than ready to go and given the injury should not have impacted his ability to aerobic conditioning, he could be another slate breaker at low ownership. The concern I have with Njoku is his quarterback, who has been a disappointment this year, to say the least. From a cash perspective, Njoku is still on my wait-and-see list, but I’ll be using him in tournaments this week given his opponent, projected ownership and low price tag.

Evan Engram

Engram (and Rhett Ellison) has officially been ruled out. Kaden Smith will be a chalky option against the Eagles in the showdown slates, but he’s a decent option considering the single-game slates are really more about ownership and being contrarian in different spots. Use Smith as a free square to differentiate yourself elsewhere. For example, Saquon Barkley could be low owned due to his recent lack of production. Stacking him with the ghost of the ghost of check down Eli Manning.

Thank you for reading my DFS Injury Fades and Plays for Week 14. If you have any questions don’t hesitate to find on Twitter or comment them down below. Good luck!

Photo courtesy of Ser Amantio di Nicola.

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS: Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays

Brandon C. Williams 4 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Week 14 is here and the window to hit big in NFL DFS is closing soon. Read my injury analysis of Dalvin Cook and the fades/plays across the league to help optimize your lineups. Let’s get to it. Note that all of the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Josh Jacobs ($7,400)

Jacobs came out this week and said that he has a “fractured shoulder” and he “just plays through it” which I find extremely odd. The assumption here is that if the shoulder is truly fractured, the medical staff doesn’t believe it is bad enough to shut him down. The most commonly fractured parts of the shoulder are the upper arm and the shoulder blade, but really there’s no way to know exactly what the injury is. What we do know is that Jacobs has seen a significant decline in targets in neutral and negative game scripts going from 5 to 3 to 1, and somehow to 0 (that’s zero) targets in a 40-9 loss to the Chiefs in Week 14. This decline in targets correlates perfectly with a shoulder injury as any type of scapulothoracic and glenohumeral elevation (i.e. raising arms to catch a ball)

With that said, Jacobs is a fade in cash games for me and I’m not confident using him in tournaments either until further notice. Unfortunately, neither Jalen Richard or Deandre Washington are usable in either formats.

Greg Olsen ($4,900)

Olsen is dealing with his third documented concussion which means he’s entered the point of no return in terms of predicting a quick return to play. It also doesn’t help that he’s nearing age 35 and the brain’s plasticity naturally declines with age. All of this means that Olsen is in legitimate jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game against the Falcons. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, and if he’s inactive on Sunday, Ian Thomas ($4,000) becomes an enticingly cheap option against the Falcons who’s defense gives up passing yards like it’s their job. Consider Thomas a cash game play in order to jam in your studs on this slate.

Update: Olsen did not practice Thursday again. He’ll have to clear protocol before early Sunday morning to play.

Taylor Gabriel ($8,00)

Gabriel remains in the concussion protocol following his second of the season and is in jeopardy to miss Week 14. In his absence Anthony Miller ($10,500) has come into his own as a second year starter and makes for an excellent tournament play in a game that the Bears should be down. Consider Miller a play in cash games as well in the showdown slate.

Update: Gabriel has officially been ruled out.

Dalvin Cook ($8,700)

If I title my DFS article “Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays” I should probably give a thorough analysis on Dalvin Cook, so here it goes. Tuesday Mike Zimmer said Cook is “fine” and didn’t offer many details about the injury. Cook offered us more insight and said his injury is “weird” but that he’ll be good to go for Week 14. He also added that the defender who caused the fumble “hit him good” in the spot that has been bothering him since the Vikings played the Broncos. Although the video of Cook fumbling in the third quarter is not great, the fact that the injury is labeled by the team as “chest” coupled with the video itself, leads me to believe that Dalvin Cook is dealing with a sternoclavicular (SC) joint injury.

Now, these injuries can be very painful but much like the AC joint, the potential for dislocation is the primary concern. If Cook takes a hit in the right spot, the clavicle can be knocked out of socket causing a whole host of issues that would land him on the IR.

With all that said, Cook has a decent chance to play this week depending on his practice activity, so be sure to check back in with me during the week. This injury makes Cook a fade in cash which is unfortunate considering this salivating matchup with Detroit who is awful against the run. The risk of dislocation and/or re-injury to the SC joint is too great for me personally trust him. Even if Cook is active, there is a chance that Alexander Mattison’s ($5,100) role is expanded to protect Cook in what should be an easy win for the Vikings. Obviously Mattison is the play here in tournaments, but consider pivoting to the Vikings defense ($4,800) in cash who should bully rookie David Blough now that he’s put some game on film.

Adam Thielen ($7,300)

It is obvious at this point that Thielen’s hamstring injury was made much worse by him trying to come back too early in Week Nine. He did not practice on Wednesday, but Thursday and Friday will be much more telling. Regardless, I can’t see Thielen playing this week, but even if he does he’s a fade in all formats due to the injury’s history. This vaults Stefon Diggs ($8,000) into consideration for cash games and tournaments as his floor and ceiling have been solid with Thielen out.

Update: Thielen did not practice again on Thursday and will need to at least participate in Friday’s practice to have a shot to play. I’m not confident in this happening.

Julio Jones ($7,800)

Jones is recovering from (what I believed to be) an AC sprain that he suffered in Week 12. The consensus from the reports are that Julio would have given it a go on Thanksgiving if not for the quick Thursday turnaround. Although Jones has not provided many ceiling games this season, I like him as a contrarian play in cash games this week against an atrocious Carolina defense that just fired their defensive minded coach Ron Rivera.

Austin Hooper ($6,600)

Hooper is recovering from an MCL sprain that he suffered about a month ago. The injury was a grade II sprain and has kept him out of practice until Monday this week. He’s now on track to play on Sunday barring any setbacks, but he’s on my “prove it” list before I play him in cash games. If Hooper still cannot go on Sunday, consider Russell Gage ($5,700) in tournaments who has done just fine filling in for the injured pass catchers of the Falcons. Atlanta plays Carolina in Week 14, a franchise who just fired their head coach and is in disarray. This could be a big game for the Atlanta offense.

Tyler Lockett

Hear me out. I get it, Lockett has only one catch over two games, but we have to consider the circumstances. In Week Ten, Lockett suffered a significant contusion to his lower leg that caused a two night hospital stay. That contusion lingered through the bye and showed in Week 12 as he tied a season low 19 routes run, a number that has dipped that low only one other time all season. Then in Week 13, Lockett was dealing with the flu but still played against the Vikings. In that MNF game, Locket played a season low 87% of snaps and saw five fewer targets than his season average. These numbers come against a struggling Minnesota secondary that ranks 14th in pass DVOA. I get into the numbers in my tweet thread below:

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1202306747920273409?s=20

After the win on Monday night, Lockett was quoted as saying “I’ve been sick all week. I just want to go to bed.” What I’m saying here is that this is the window to play Tyler Lockett at low ownership in cash against a Rams secondary that is ranked 12th in pass DVOA.

Update: After not practicing on Thursday or Friday leading up to Week 13, Lockett is not even listed on the practice report for Week 14. As the kids say it might once again be Tyler Lockett SZN.

Evan Engram

Despite the fact that he hasn’t practiced since Week Nine, Engram has told reporters he’s optimistic about his return in Week 14. I’m not sold on this optimism as his foot injury has lingered as serious foot/ankle injuries tend to do. If Engram is active I’m fading him in cash. If he’s inactive yet again, fire up either Rhett Ellison (concussion) or Kaden Smith in tournaments against this Eagles defense who just got torched by the fightin’ Ryan Fitzpatricks.

Thank you for reading Injuries- Dalvin Cook/Fades/Plays. Hopefully I was able to provide some insight on this week’s injuries and provide potential fades/plays. Good luck in DFS this week!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 11 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 11 DFS plays – the best RB picks for the main slate, including cash, GPP and some contrarian recommendations to win you some green!

Sign up NOWfor WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

ChristianMcCaffrey, CAR at GB

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,500)

Cash or GPP, CMC is King, and the price remains unchanged from last week. He gets days off during the week for maintenance, but by Thursday he’s practicing fully so he can smash on Sunday. I don’t need to justify this anymore, do I? He’s the safest play and has the most upside, so use the guy – just find a way to get him in your lineups.

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DEN

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,600)

Cook gets over 20 carries per game and is just a notch below McCaffrey in terms of floor and upside – but still worth of clicking into your cash game lineups and GPPs. Find your value plays at WR, TE and flex this week and just lock both guys in. The Denver defense doesn’t play nearly as well on the road and they’ve been surprisingly mediocre against the run this season – so stopping Cook will be a challenge.

Week 11 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliot, DAL at DET

DK ($8,900) FD($8,400)

It’s s great matchup and the Cowboys clearly want to run theball more – so this could easily end up being Zeke’s best game of 2019 so far.He has 35-40 point upside on DK and the Lions defense gives up the most fantasypoints in the league to opposing RBs.

Alvin Kamara, NO at TB

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,800)

Since Kamara isn’t a prototypical rusher, I’m totally coolwith rolling him out against the league’s toughest run defense, especiallysince it’s also the league’s worst pass defense! Kamara had a rough go of itlast time around and that should keep the masses from clicking his name inGPPs. I’m going right back to the well – because he’ll be instrumental in the Saintsshredding of the Bucs, and that price has come down to a very reasonable place.

Josh Jacobs, OAK vs. CIN

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,000)

Jacobs has been playing through a shoulder injury and it’s worth monitoring his status on Sunday, but the guy is a workhorse for Oakland and a huge part of their success this season. His combined targets and carries each game have fallen below 19 only once since Week 4, and the Q tag could keep folks off him in GPPs – even against a pitiful Bengals defense. Win Daily Sports expert David Jones noted in his GPP Picks of Destiny that Jacobs he has gone over 100 yards in three of his last five games with five touchdowns in that span, and I firmly agree with his assessment of Jacobs as a mid-range GPP option.

Mark Ingram, BAL vs. HOU

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,500)

The Ravens can beat you many ways, but Ingram still makessense as a high-upside GPP play with some amount of risk – but not enough to keepyou from cashing if he has a ho-hum game. He’s not my favorite RB option thisweek and the number of touches he gets per game is a little low for my liking, buthe’s someone to consider as a pivot if Jacobs’ shoulder keeps him from playing.

Devin Singletary, BUF at MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($6,500)

The rookie RB was a disappointment last week but has a favorablematchup in Week 11. He’s one of the best GPP plays on the slate given hisupside, talent and the recency bias of the letdown to DFS owners in Week 10.

Also consider: Le’Veon Bell (illness), Phillip Lindsay

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Leomard Fournette, JAC at IND

DK ($7,900) FD ($7,200)

Priceand matchup will keep Fournette from being heavily owned this week, but he’s ina sneaky spot if the Jags decide to limit the number of throws that Nick Foles makesin his first game back. It’s not a heavy exposure opportunity, but mixingFournette into a few low-stakes, large-field multi-entry GPPs shouldn’t be abad decision.

Tevin Coleman, SF vs. ARI

DK ($6,100) FD ($6,700)

Coleman ducked out of practice due to a personal matter on Thursday, so he may not make the initial builds of the GPP masses heading into the weekend. It’s hard to speculate at this point if he’ll be available or if his head will be in the game, but there’s no injury to speak of and both Matt Breida (ankle, doubtful) and Raheem Mostert (knee) are dealing with some issues. Stay tuned and don’t rule him out of DFS viability in this favorable matchup just yet.

Also consider: Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon

Week 11 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Sony Michel, NE at PHI

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,300)

Michel is just too cheap on DK and despite coming off hisseason-low of four carries in Week 9, I expect the Patriots to go back to whatworks following their bye week – which means 15-20 carries for Michel and multi-TDupside. He’s a fine play in Week 11.

Brian Hill, ATL at CAR

DK ($4,800) FD ($5,900)

Hill is the only show in town for Atlanta in Week 11 and the matchup is a decent one on paper. I worry about a letdown after his big week, as the Falcons could easily fall behind and abandon the running game, peppering both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley with targets, but the absence of Austin Hooper has to help Hill’s usage as a receiving option on dump-offs. Tenacious D even says in his GPP column that “Hill is going to step in for the injured Devonte Freeman and get around 20 touches and a couple targets through the air” and I’m with him that the 24-year-old back stands a good shot of finding paydirt.

J.D. McKissic, DET vs. DAL

DK ($4,600) FD ($5,800)

He’s probably too expensive on FD because of his reliance on the passing game and the Dallas run defense, which looked decent up until they encountered Dalvin Cook in Week 10. He’s got opportunity and game script on his side, and he could get a few more targets (season-high seven last week) with Matthew Stafford ruled out again and Jeff Driskel set to fill in at QB.

Kalen Ballage, MIA vs. BUF

DK ($4,300) FD ($5,300)

Ballage is still cheap and getting lots of usage but arelatively quiet game in Week 10 (20 carries for 43 yards, 4-2-0 on four targetsreceiving), but head coach Brian Flores said Wednesday that the Dolphins willcontinue to lean heavily on him as their lead option out of the backfield. Thebills defense hasn’t been great recently and Ballage is a near lock for 15-20touches.

Additional plays: Miles Sanders, Ty Montgomery (only if Bell is OUT)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Week

Pick the Players that will get the most Fantasy Points

Goal: 68.5, Prize: 3x

Lets go with Christian McCaffrey, Brian Hill and D.J. Moore, who could all go for 20+ Fantasy Points, with McCaffrey a regular threat to eclipse 40. At that rate, I am comfortable locking in the 2x bet all day and going for a little more at 3x considering the upside here. I wanted to include two RBs because its an article about that, so if you are skittish about Hill you can always use Julio Jones.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Seven Running Back Breakdown

5 years ago

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This report will provide NFL DFS running back options for the Week Seven 11-game main slate. Running backs will be broken down into three tiers, high, mid, and low. I will also include punt plays.

High Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Dalvin Cook (MIN) ($8300 FD|$8000 DK)

The Detroit Lions have quietly fallen down the ladder, now allowing over 130 rushing yards per game on the ground. Their bottom five run defense will face a tall task in trying to slow down Dalvin Cook. The Vikings offensive line has been phenomenal, allowing runners to average 5.43 YPC. Cook has 23 receptions for 213 yards and 583 yards on the ground in 2019. As we all know, he has been nearly impossible to stop even against good run defenses. He is averaging almost 23 fantasy points per game and should have no trouble crushing his steep price tag against a lowly Lions run defense.

NFL DFS Running Back: Leonard Fournette (JAX) ($7900 FD|$7000 DK)

I’m fairly certain I was laughed at by some of my colleagues when I said Leonard Fournette would have a great bounce back season. Well look, who’s laughing now! Fournette has 584 rushing yards, which is third best in the league. I am more in tune with his involvement in the pass game now, he has 26 receptions for 189 yards. It is also worth noting he see’s the third most red zone touches of any RB in the league. He will face off against the worst run defense in the NFL. The Dolphins? No. The Bengals. The Bengals allow 184 yards per game on the ground and surrender an average of 5.6 YPC. This is a no brainer, lock in Fournette.

NFL DFS Running Back: Saquon Barkley (NYG) ($8600 FD|$8900 DK)

Saquon Barkley practiced in full on Wednesday, so he is officially a go against the Cardinals this week. I am not crazy about the price tag coming off of injury, but he has no restrictions and quite frankly, it’s Saquon Barkley. Prior to his injury, Barkley avearged 6.5 yards per touch and saw nearly an 80% opportunity share within the offense. Arizona ranks near the bottom against the run, they allow over 4.40 yards per carry and 132 yards per game. It is worth noting that Patrick Peterson is back for the Cardinals this week.

Honorable Mention: David Johnson (Ques.) (ARI) ($7400 FD|$7800)

Mid Tier

NFL DFS Running Back: Mark Ingram (BAL) ($7500 FD|$6600 DK)

Last week we had a slew of mid tier priced RB’s that made lineup construction fairly easy. This week is a different story, I feel more comfortable staying out of the 6k threshold, but Ingram is still a good option. Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards are always going to be there to eat into Ingram’s workload but he has been so efficient in the red zone that it gives him one of the safest floors. He has found pay dirt two weeks in a row and shouldn’t have a problem this week against the Seahawks who just surrendered 157 yards on the ground against the Browns. Mark Ingram has 87 carries for 424 yards and seven TDs.

NFL DFS Running Back: Josh Jacobs (OAK) ($6700 FD|$5000 DK)

The Green Bay defense has tightened up a bit the last couple of games. They still allow nearly five yards per carry and 124 yards per game on the ground. Josh Jacobs saw a monster workload against a tough Bears defense but still managed 123 yards and two TDs on 26 carries. He has 430 yards on 88 carries and four touchdowns in 2019. Jon Gruden clearly loves using Jacobs and he has a palatable price tag, especially on DK.

Honorable Mention: Tevin Coleman (SFO) ($6200 FD|$5600)

Low Tier & Punt Plays

NFL DFS Running Back: Devin Singletary (BUF) ($5800 FD|$5400 DK)

After going down with a hamstring injury in Week Two, Devin Singletary looks to be back to full health, logging a full practice on Wednesday. He only had ten carries before he went down, but still averaged nearly 11 YPC. He will face the lowly Miami Dolphins who allow over 4.8 YPC and 170 yards per game on the ground.

NFL DFS Running Back: Chase Edmonds (ARI) ($5500 FD|$4700 DK)

I’m listing Chase Edmonds mainly due to the new injury to David Johnson. Just a situation that needs to be monitored. If Edmonds get the nod he is a great cheap option and would be big part of the passing offense. Even though DJ saw 75% of the snaps in Week Six, Edmonds still had 67 all-purpose yards and a TD, easily paying off his cheap tag. Keep him on your radar just in case DJ indeed is out this Sunday.

Honorable Mention (Punt): Matt Breida ($5600 FD|$5300 DK)

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week Five: Touches and Targets Outlooks

5 years ago

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This report will provide NFL DFS touches and targets for the Week Five 12-game main slate. I will break down players into three tiers: High, mid, and low.

High Tier

NFL DFS WR: Julio Jones (ATL) ($8200 FD|$7700 DK)

77% Snap Share. 37 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Four TDs.

Julio Jones comes in as a top play once again in Week Five. Bit of a disappointing performance in Week Four as Matt Ryan threw the ball 53 times for nearly 400 yards and Jones only drew seven of those targets. Julio Jones and the Falcons will look to rebound against a beatable Houston Texans secondary and a defense that ranks 13th overall DVOA.

NFL DFS WR: DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) ($8500 FD|$7800 DK)

100% Snap Share. 36 Targets, 24 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins correlation will likely be the heaviest chalk in Week Five. I’m not as crazy as everyone else is about this matchup. Yes, the Falcons rank 25th in terms of getting pressure on the QB but Houston ranks 31st in allowing pressure against the QB (11.9% ADJ. Sack Rate). Atlanta faced a Tennessee team in Week Four that struggles the most in the league in protecting the QB and managed to not register even one sack. If the offensive line can give Watson the protection he absolutely needs to be successful than I can see Houston having a great day, but it is risky.

NFL DFS RB: Christian McCaffrey (CAR) ($8900 FD|$8700 DK)

100% Snap Share, 31 Targets, 25 Receptions for 218 yards, 86 carries for 411 yards, 6 yards per touch, Four TDs.

I predicted 30 touches last week for Christian McCaffrey and he ended up with 37 touches for 179 all-purpose yards and a TD. The entire offense revolves around him and he will continue to receiver monster work loads week in and out. CMC is once again viable in all formats in Week Five.

NFL DFS RB: Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) ($8800 FD|$8300 DK)

71% Snap Share, 14 Targets, 11 Receptions, 63 yards. 73 carries for 324 yards, 4.4 yards per touch, Three TDs.

After starting out looking like the a perennial defense, the Packers have come back down to reality and rank 26th against the run in Week Five. They surrender over 140 yards per game on the ground but they do have a very good secondary. This is clearly Zeke’s day and I will have plenty of shares.

Mid Tier

NFL DFS WR: Adam Thielen (MIN) ($6900 FD|$6700 DK)

93% Snap Share. 22 Targets, 13 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Three TDs.

Adam Thielen expressed his frutration with the poor passing performance by the Vikings offense. All the right pieces are there, unfortunately it falls on one guy and that is Kirk Cousins. Thielen is in a great spot, as is Stefon Diggs. I’d like to think we can expect a breakout performance in the passing game against the Giants who allow nearly 300 yards through the air per game, but Cousins is just not getting it done.

NFL DFS WR: Alshon Jeffrey (PHI) ($6700 FD|$5900 DK)

83% Snap Share. 15 Targets, 8 Receptions, 11 yards per reception, Two TDs.

Very nice matchup for Alshon Jeffrey against a Jets defense that gives up nearly 300 yards through the air per game. His numbers aren’t there just due to injury early in the season but he is a good play at a fair price, particularly on DK.

NFL DFS TE: Mark Andrews (BAL) ($6100 FD|$4800 DK)

48% Snap Share. 32 targets, 23 receptions, 266 receiving yards. Three TDs.

You didn’t fall asleep on my boy, did you? Mark Andrews has been dealing with a foot injury all season but heads into Week Five without an injury designation (finally) and practiced in full on Friday. The Steelers do struggle defending slot receivers and Andrews is lining up in the slot at a 40% clip. Outside of Andrews being Lamar Jackson’s favorite target, his size advantage, and the fact that he’s quickly becoming a top tier NFL tight end, I see no reason not to play him.

NFL DFS WR: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) ($5800 FD|$6000 DK)

99% Snap Share. 36 targets, 23 receptions, 300 yards, Two TDs.

Christian Kirk is out so that’s going to give Fitz a nice boost in looks. The Bengals look decent against the pass, but with David Johnson in such a good spot I just see this Cardinals offense being able to stay on balance and effectively throw the ball just as well as they will run it on Sunday.

NFL DFS WR: Tyler Boyd (CIN) ($6700 FD|$6500 DK)

87% Snap Share. 38 Targets, 27 Receptions, 10 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

Same situation as the Cardinals, John Ross is out for the next 6-8 weeks so Boyd should draw a nice chunk of those targets against a sub-par defense.

NFL DFS RB: Joe Mixon (CIN) ($7100 FD|$6100 DK)

95% Snap Share. 54 touches, 202 yards, One TD.

The Bengals offensive line has been questionable, but the Cardinals surrender nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. Mixon is still looking for his footing on the season and this is as good of a spot as any to find it.

Low Tier/Punts

NFL DFS WR: Will Fuller (HOU) ($5700 FD|$4500 DK)

100% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 14 Receptions, 13 yards per reception.

NFL DFS WR: KeeSean Johnson (ARI) ($4600 FD|$3500 DK)

63% Snap Share. 19 Targets, 11 Receptions, 10 yards per reception.

Christian Kirk is out, boost in targets for Keesean Johnson.

NFL DFS WR: Auden Tate (CIN) ($5300 FD|$3500 DK)

73% Snap Share. 18 Targets, 11 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Zero TDs.

I hate Auden Tate’s price on Fanduel but I’m more than fine with the $3500 tag on DK. Tate should see a boost as well with no John Ross.

NFL DFS WR: John Brown (BUF) ($5500 FD|$5100 DK)

90% Snap Share. 34 Targets, 23 Receptions, 14 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Phillip Dorsett (NEP) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

71% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 15 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Three TDs.

NFL DFS WR: Calvin Ridley (ATL) ($5400 FD|$4900 DK)

76% Snap Share. 23 Targets, 16 Receptions, 13 yards per reception, Two TDs.

NFL DFS TE: Tyler Eifert (CIN) ($4600 FD|$3300 DK)

45% Snap Share. 17 Targets, 11 Receptions, 81 yards, One TD.

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