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Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Vikings at Bears

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $20,400, FD $17,500)

Pivot: Kirk Cousins (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $14,700, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $15,000, FD $14,000)

The easy choice for the captain chalk is Dalvin Cook, who’s season low is 17.1 DK points in Week 2 against Indy. This season he’s scored 21.8, 17.1, 29.9, 31.6, 19.9, BYE, INJ, 51.6 and 42.2 DK points – numbers bolstered by the fact that he’s scored at least one TD in every game he’s played this season (12 TDs in seven games).  He seems matchup-proof at this point.

We could pivot to Kirk Cousins if assume the Bears will stack the box against Cook, and while Cousins isn’t the most reliable real-world QB (or fantasy producer), he’s notched four weeks with at least 20 DK points and he has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal: Cook, veteran WR and PPR maven Adam Thielen, talented rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and stalwart TE Kyle Rudolph.

The Vikings are without Irv Smith Jr. this week, which likely dings their red zone efficacy, but the gloriously man-bunned Tyler Conklin could soak up a few extra targets in his stead. Conklin played some in 2019 and has yet to be targeted this season, but he’s the only other active TE on the Vikings roster. He’s dirt cheap and probably not a guy I’d use in more than 1/10 GPPs.

Additionally, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that capable RB Alexander Mattison sees a few additional carries this week, as Cook has logged 30 and 22 carries in his last two games. Outside of that lot and a smattering of the Vikings DST mixed into my builds, I don’t see too many other impact players for Minnesota.

The Bears have a team total under 20 in this game, which is never a good sign for fantasy production.  Nick Foles has his moments, so he’s the most obvious choice for a contrarian builds – which have merit based on both game script and the Vikings’ record against opposing QBs.

I’d love to plug Foles and Allen Robinson into some lineups right away, but AR2 is questionable with a knee injury and we could see more targets heading the ay of both Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney. Mooney, even as the Bears deep threat, might even be the safer play of the two given Miller’s spotty performance this season – though Miller has a been a favorite feast-or-famine GPP play for me over the past couple of seasons since he seems to make some truly amazing catches when he’s on his game.

Bears TE Jimmy Graham is another relatively safe fantasy option that maintains some upside, and the Vikings yield about a third more production to opposing TEs than the average NFL team. He’ll be a staple of my builds in all formats.

The backfield is a mess, with the team promoting Lamar Miller from the practice squad to help Ryan Nall with RB duties. Miller hasn’t taken the field since 2018 because of an ACL injury and he was cut from the Patriots roster this summer. He could be a free space at just $200 on DK, but he’ll likely split work with Nall and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 10. This relatively ugly committee should still be led by Nall, with David Montgomery still in concussion protocol and ruled out for Week 10.

Lastly, there’s no way we can omit the Bears DST – a strength of this team and a glaring GPP possibility when we’re honest about the fallibility of Cousins and the 3-5 Vikings in general. I’ll have shares of both them and K Cairo Santos in GPPs.

Week 10 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Forget about the defenses – as both QBs have been known to look downright foolish on the football field.

DO: Use Dalvin Cook somewhere in your lineup – unless you’re planning on him getting injured, which is both mean and dumb.

DON’T: Be afraid to completely fade the Vikings passing game in your “Cook at CPT” builds.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Dalvin Cook
  2. Kirk Cousins
  3. Adam Thielen
  4. Nick Foles
  5. Allen Robinson (if active)
  6. Justin Jefferson
  7. Darnell Mooney
  8. Jimmy Graham
  9. Ryan Nall
  10. Kyle Rudolph
  11. Anthony Miller
  12. Lamar Miller
  13. Vikings DST
  14. Dan Bailey
  15. Cairo Santos
  16. Bears DST
  17. Alexander Mattison
  18. Cordarrelle Patterson
  19. Riley Ridley
  20. Olabisi Johnson

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