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Christian McCaffrey

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 5 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 5 edition of The Inside Look for the 2022 NFL season. This will be a data-driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig into individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.

Justin Jefferson’s 2022 is off to a stellar start. Week 5 saw him get 13 targets for a second straight week. We also saw Jefferson eclipse double-digit catches for second straight week as he was able to haul in 12 of those 13 targets. At the end of the day, Jefferson finished with 154 yards on those 12 catches. While he didn’t find the endzone, he did end up with a two-point conversion. Up next week for the Vikings will be a date with the Miami Dolphins and a matchup of two of the best in the league at what they do, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson.

Yes, you are reading that correctly. Randall Cobb was tied for the lead this weekend for wide receiver targets with 13. That is not a typo. The 13 targets Cobb had were the most he’s had in a game since all the way back in Week 15 of 2017. Coming into Week 5, Cobb had only been targeted 12 times. We should consider this week an outlier as he normally only gets 2-3 targets a game.

Mike Williams continues to dominate. Williams had double-digit targets for a second straight week and 3 out of his last 4 games. His 13 targets this week were the most he’s had this season, as were the 10 catches. His final stat line was extremely impressive as he finished with 10 catches for 134 yards. The only negative here was he failed to find the endzone. Up next will be a matchup against the Broncos and their tough D.

Running Back Targets

Christian McCaffrey and his pass-catching game is back. For a second straight week, McCaffrey has set a season-high in targets. After being targeted 9 times in Week 4, McCaffrey was targeted 12 times in Week 5. Those were his most targets since all the way back in 2019. For a fourth straight week, McCaffrey finished with at least 100 yards from scrimmage.

The targets for Leonard Fournette are slowly coming around. Each week Fournette has seen more and more targets. In Week 5, Fournette set a season-high with 11 targets. He was able to catch 10 of them 83 yards and had a receiving TD for a second straight week. Fournette will look to keep the good times going in Week 6 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Tight End Targets

Tyler Higbee continues to be one of Matthew Stafford’s favorite targets. While the 10 targets he had in Week 5 weren’t the most he’s had this season, it was the third time this season that Higbee had double-digit targets. It wasn’t all rosy for Higbee though as he was only able to catch 7 of them for just 46 yards. The 46 yards were the fewest he’s had since Week 1. Up next for the Rams will be the Panthers, a team that has given up less than 200 receiving yards so far to Tight Ends.

After being essentially invisible in Weeks 3 and 4, Evan Engram set a season-high in targets with 10 in Week 5. His 10 targets were the most he’s had since 2020 when he was a member of the New York Giants. Engram was able to catch 6 of the 10 targets for 69 yards. The 69 yards were the most he’s had this season.

Quarterback Target Share

When you have a pass-catching back like Christian McCaffrey, you better heavily utilize him in the passing game. And that’s exactly what Mayfield did in Week 5. Nearly 35% of the 25 pass attempts by Mayfield went to his backs. McCaffrey’s 7 targets were far and away the most by anyone on the Panthers this past weekend.

On the polar opposite end of the spectrum, I present to you the Buffalo Bills. Nearly 80% of all of Josh Allen’s passes went to his receivers this weekend. All but 7 of his 36 passes went to his receivers. Devin Singletary was targeted just 2 times and Tight End Quintin Morris was targeted 5 times.

Running Back Touches

No running back had more attempts than Derrick Henry in Week 5. That’s a statement we’ve heard often over the last several seasons. For the fourth time this season, Henry eclipsed 20 runs. His 28 attempts this weekend were the most he’s had this season. Henry also set a season-high with 2 touchdowns in Week 5. All in all, Henry went for 102 rushing yards on his 28 carries. He’ll have a chance to rest those legs this weekend as the Titans have a bye in Week 6.

After averaging around 15 carries through the first 4 weeks of the season, Dameon Pierce set a career-high with 26 carries in Week 5. He just missed having a second consecutive 100-yard rushing game as he finished with 99 yards. He did find the endzone though for the third straight week. The rookie running back is slowly becoming the focal point of this Texans offense.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Up early in this one, the undefeated Dallas Cowboys went with a run-heavy offense. Of their 50 plays on Sunday, 34 were for runs and only 16 pass attempts. While the majority of the carries went to Elliot this week, Tony Pollard was the one that did the damage thanks to a 57-yard TD run in the second quarter that put the Cowboys up for good in this one.

Having a QB that can throw with some competence, the Steelers ran pass plays more than 70% of the time on Sunday. Most of that was dictated by the score though as the Steelers were essentially down from the moment Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense took the field. In Kenny Pickett’s first career start, he threw the ball 52 times and ended up with 327 passing yards. Even though he threw a ton of passes, none went for a TD as the Steelers were slaughtered by the Bill 38-3. Ouch, Pittsburgh!

Always make sure to check out our projection model before setting your weekly lineups.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 5 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Running Back Targets

Tight End Targets

Quarterback Target Share

Running Back Touches

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

Always make sure to check out our projection model before setting your weekly lineups.

2 years ago 0 comment

Week 3 DFS Sunday Night NFL Showdown: Packers at 49ers

Jason Mezrahi 3 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with the Sunday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: Please take a look at our optimizer if you are mass entering lineups!Sunday Night NFL Showdown CAPTAIN / MVP candidates Some notes on the diff...

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 3 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Panthers at Texans

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 3 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 3 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 3 NFL DFS Chalk: Christian McCaffrey (FD $17,500, DK $20,100)

Pivot: Sam Darnold (FD $15,000, DK $16,800)

Contrarian #1: D.J. Moore (FD $14,000, DK $15,900)

Contrarian #2: Brandin Cooks (FD $13,000, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: Panthers DST (DK $9,300)

Given how he’s used and the yardage props (136.5 rushing + receiving yards) that are posted for tonight, Christian McCaffrey has to be the chalk play, but Sam Darnold should probably be the closest pivot since he has his full complement of receiving weapons’ and the Panthers are 8-point favorites. It’s not going to be easy to get both Darnold and McCaffrey in lineups this week because of their inflated salaries, but it’s possible.

Panthers notes: The Panthers offense is mainly Darnold, McCaffrey and D.J. Moore, but Robby Anderson offers some upside at a discount. Stacking up the main options from these teams is near impossibility with any one of the Panthers corps at captain. With pricing so tight, we’re forced to look at kicker Zane Gonzalez, TE Dan Arnold and rookie WR Terrace Marshall, Jr. as the best fringe options. TE Ian Thomas is a punt play I might grab some shares of, and we could see more touches for rookie Chuba Hubbard if the game gets out of hand early. Brandon Zylstra scored a big TD last week and could be relevant tonight, but I’m more interested in the Panthers DST for the extra $1,600. They could be worth using at captain as well if that gets us both McCaffrey, Darnold and the main offensive weapon for the Texans.

Texans notes: Davis Mills is not even close to being ready for prime time, so I have little interest in jamming him into builds this week. The Texans projected team total is just 17.25 points, so the main focus of our lineups should be Brandin Cooks, bargain option Chris Conley (who saw his snap share rise up to 90 in Week 2 with the injuries to Danny Amendola and Nico Collins — both out tonight). I’m also comfortable facing Mark Ingram, since we’ll likely see more of both Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson on the short week and assuming a game script that forces Mills to pepper his RBs with dump-offs. Sure, the Texans could just feed Ingram and the other backs all day and find enough success to keep it close, but I just don’t see this happening too far into the second half. Other worthwhile options include TE Jordan Akins and former Bears WR Anthony Miller, who could be in the mix if he suits up tonight. The only sub-$1K guys I see who could contributing are Andre Roberts (who may not see as many snaps if Miller is active) and Rex Burkhead, but he’s probably only an option if one or more of the main Houston RBs sits this one out.

Week 3 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar. I’ve built one lineup so far that leaves $1K on the table, and I’m fine leaving up to about $2K out there if the narrative makes sense. It could get weird tonight, even with the tight pricing.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Tread too much in the sub-$1K range this week. Houston WRs Miller and Conley are about as cheap as I’ll go, even if both are viable in this particular showdown.

Now that we’ve established some Week 3 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Christian McCaffrey
Sam Darnold
D.J. Moore
Brandin Cooks
Robby Anderson
Davis Mills
Mark Ingram
Panthers DST
Phillip Lindsay
Dan Arnold
David Johnson
Terrace Marshall, Jr.
Chris Conley
Jordan Akins
Brandon Zylstra
Zane Gonzalez
Joey Slye
Anthony Miller
Ian Thomas
Chuba Hubbard
Texans DST
Andre Roberts
Rex Burkhead

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 17 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 17 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto help you win big!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. NO

DK ($10,000) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is the best fantasy RB in the game and has a chance to finish with over 1,000 yards this season for both rushing and receiving. He is only 67 yards short on the receiving end, so expect the Panthers to let him rack up the receptions and eclipse that mark. In a week with plenty of uncertainty, Panthers’ interim coach Perry Fewell has already stated he has no plans to pull CMC early in Week 17.

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL vs.WAS

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)

Zeke should be involved in the Cowboys offense early andoften, and while his workload and productionthis year haven’t been up to his usual standards, he’s still running theball well when given the chance. Just last week against a tough run defense,he had 20 touches and played on 97 percent of the snaps, rushing for 84 yards.Now he gets the lackluster Washington run defense (ranked 28^th inthe NFL) in a game the Cowboys should win. He’s one of the top cash game plays forWeek 17.

Also consider:Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb

Week 17 DFS Running Back – GPP Plays

MarlonMack, IND at JAC

DK ($6,900) FD ($7,300)

The Colts wrap up the season against the Jaguars, who have given up 5.14 yards per carry this season and more than 30 fantasy points a game to opposing runners – the second most in the NFL on both counts. This Jags defense allowed Mack to gash them for 109 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in Week 11, and Mack’s 7.8 yards per attempt during that game ranks as the RB’s highest since Week 6 of 2017. He’s a great GPP play on a team that hasn’t been throwing it too well.

Sony Michel, NE vs. MIA

DK ($4,900) FD ($6,500)

Michel should tear this Miami run defense to shreds, andhis price is obscenely low on DK. He’s a viable GPP play on both sits, however,and should have pretty low ownership on FD where he’s priced between PhillipLindsay and Damien Williams. I think his upside is a little higher than both thosecapable backs, even with the crowded backfield in New England, because he couldeasily rush for two or three TDs. We’ve been burned by him before, but if youcan stand a little risk, this feels like a big Michel week.

Also consider: Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Contrarian GPP Plays

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. PHI

DK ($8,700) FD ($9,300)

Barkley doesn’t have the best matchup on paper, but the Giants are using him an awful lot lately and he’s shown explosiveness that’s been missing for most of 2019, averaging 40.1 DraftKings points over his past two games. The volume is there, and the price is still affordable. I’m in love with Barkley as a low-owned contrarian play in a week that might have the DFS masses looking elsewhere.

Kenyan Drake, ARI at LAR

DK ($7,100) FD (7,300)

Drake is coming off another monster game where he carried the ball 24 times for 166 yards and two TDs, adding 3-18-0 receiving in a stunning win over the Seahawks. He now looks to cap off an unexpectedly productive season in a Week 17 road game against the Rams. It’s not a great spot, but we’ve seen Drake rise to the occasion in a tough matchup before, and there’s a lot of free agency money at stake for him.

Also consider: Austin Ekeler, Devonta Freeman

Week 17 DFS Running Back – Value/Punt Plays

Damien Williams, KCvs. LAC

DK ($4,700) FD ($6,400)

Williams was the workhorse last week for the Chiefs and hegets a favorable home matchup against a faltering division rival. The Chargersallow 110.3 rushing yards per game, making Williams a high-upside play in aleading role.

Chris Thompson, WAS at DAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($5,100)

Thompson got some involvement in the running game lastweek, carrying the ball eight times for 34 yards to go along with his usualpassing game role (4-18-0 on four targets). His skill set fits in nicely for thismatchup with the Cowboys, and we could see him get a lot more targets his wayin what should be a negative game script. The price is right on DK, but I’llstay away on FD.

Additional plays: Mike Boone, Kareem Hunt, Kerryon Johnson

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Goal: 47.5, Prize: 2x

I am looking at three RBs from this game to meet this modest total of 47.5 to pay 2x, including Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. If you are skittish about playing three RBs from this game, feel free to mix in a WR for Chubb or Hunt, but I really like the volume of all these backs here.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 16 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 16 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win your GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR atIND

DK ($10,100) FD ($10,800)

McCaffrey resumes top dog cash game play of the week after a minorbobble of the crown in weeks 13 and 14. He posted his fourth-highest pointstotal of the season in Week 15 and is once again in a smash spot against astruggling Indy defense.

Chris Carson, SEA vs. ARI

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)

Carson doesn’t have much competition for touches anymoreand remains a fire-breathing, yard-churning monster the Seattle backfield. Thematchup here checks all the boxes for favorable, including opponent, probable gamescript and home field, He had 133 rushing yards and two scores in Week 15, andthere’s nothing to prevent him form a similar stat line facing the Cards rundefense.

Also consider:Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Mark Ingram, BAL at CLE

DK ($6,800) FD ($7,600)

I expect the Ravens to avenge the loss the Browns handed them earlier this season with heavy doses of Mark Ingram, who only had 12 cries and one catch in Week 4. Ingram cost $6,600 then and sputtered to just 9.1 DK points, but I’m expecting production twice that this week, as he should handle a few more red-zone touches and be part of the formula to put the game out of reach, The Browns defense is also pretty beat up.

Saquon Barkley, NYG at WAS

DK ($8,300) FD ($8,800)

Barkley’s price has come up, but it’s not outrageous yet – and Washingtonhasn’t had the pleasure of trying to stop Mr. Barkley yet this season. TheGiants were committed to getting him the ball in Week 15, and he responded with112 rushing yards and two scores (to go along with 5-31-0 receiving) and we canexpect positive results again this week. He’s fine for cash or GPP.

Also consider: Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at PHI

DK ($7,900) FD ($8,700)

Elliott gashed the Eagles defense for 111 rushing yards and a score in Week 7 and now faces them in a game that likely decides who wins the NFC East and sends the winner to the playoffs. Although the Eagles defense is usually more vulnerable to the passing game, even Jason Garrett can’t screw this up by eliminating the Zeke factor. It’s not a perfect spot for Zeke, but that’s usually when he surprises you with a monster game by catching a few extra passes and mixing in some big plays.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($6,100) FD (6,800)

Once again, we have a week where nobody is talking about Austin Ekeler, despite a favorable matchup against a division rival that could keep the game close. Last week, Ekeler still managed 10 fantasy points despite low usage and I’m betting he can thump the Raiders with a couple of game-breaking runs or catches. Ekeler’s Kamara-light skillset gives you a huge discount and about the same upside.

Also consider: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake

Week 16 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Melvin Gordon, LAC vs. OAK

DK ($5,600) FD ($7,000)

If it’s not Ekeler, it’ll be Gordon, who’s actually cheaper on DraftKings because of the PPR factor. Melvin stands to get a few extra goal-line/red zone carries this week and the Chargers, in general, should be in a good spot to score a few extra points facing a battered Raiders defensive unit. I’m less interested in FanDuel but his price on DK is a bargain.

Kerryon Johnson, DET at DEN

DK ($4,900) FD ($4,500)

Johnson just got activated, so this isn’t aplay for the faint of heart. But the Lions RB has been practicing the past fewweeks and hasn’t experienced any setbacks, and he regularly occupied the 10-20 fantasypoint range when he was healthy. You’re getting low ownership and a solid price(minimum on FD) on a back who could be in for a workhorse role in Week 16.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Patrick Laird, Dion Lewis (if Derrick Henry sits)

Monkey Knife Fight DFS Picks of the Week

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Goal 48.5, Prize: 2x

This game should feature plenty of offense and both RBs should be in your MKF bets for this one, so pair Joe Mixon and Patrick Laird with DeVante Parker.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 15 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got your NFL Week 15 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Chris Carson, SEA at CAR

DK ($7,500) FD ($7,400)

Normally, lock-n-load cash game RB plays are either expensiveor really cheap, but we’ve got an excellent value play in Carson that’s prettysafe and won’t cost you too much on either site. With Rashad Penny done for theyear, Carson will get elite volume in a smash spot – making this a prime opportunityto eat the chalk and move on with the rest of your lineup.

Leonard Fournette, JAC atOAK

DK ($7,600) FD ($7,700)

Last week I reiterated that Fournette is a weekly lock for 20+touches, and now he’s seen a total of 29 targets over the past three weeks. He’sfacing an Oakland defense that’s been especially vulnerable to rushing TDs overthe past few weeks and there’s no game script that kills this guy’sinvolvement. His floor is still a robust 12-15 DK points and he’s got 25-30-pointupside on both sites.

Also consider:Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry (questionable)

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR vs. SEA

DK ($10,000) FD ($10,400)

McCaffrey got back over 20 DK points last week but faces a toughSeattle defense that’s among the top 10 in the league against the run. He’sstill priced at $10K or more on both sites so I’ll be avoiding him in cashgames – putting him on the radar in GPPs where we could get an elite player ina tougher matchup with low ownership.

Dalvin Cook, MIN at LAC

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)

We’ve lost some of the 20+ upsides that Cook showed us early in the season, but this is a great chance for him to get right and bust out with a big game. Cook said he came out of Week 14 feeling “healthy,” which was a concern because of the chest injury. He’s now scored TDs in four straight and should be a focal point of the offense with a 25-point upside facing the Chargers.

Saquon Barkley, NYG vs. MIA

DK ($7,700) FD ($8,300)

Barkley represents decent GPP value on the main slate in awinnable matchup. If he can’t break out for a big day against the Dolphins, I’mafraid he’s just not what we’ve been hoping he’d be for this Giants offense. He’shad just three games with 20+ DK points this year and just two 100-yard rushinggames, but Week 15 is his best matchup of the season.

Also consider: Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. CHI

DK ($7,300) FD ($7,800)

Jonesexploited a weak Redskins run defense to compilea season-high rushing yardage total last week, rushing 16 times for 134and a TD, adding 6-58-0 on seven targets in the passing game. He’ll be a focalpoint of the Packers offense this week against the Bears as well, and he’s gotmassive upside despite what I would hope would be lower ownership in a “red”matchup.

Austin Ekeler, LAC vs. MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200)

I included him in this space last week and he went nuts, rushing forover 100 yards and adding 5-112-1 receiving for 37.3 DK points! I really thinkthat Ekeler is matchup-proof and needs to be included in GPPs at his pricepoint, regardless of the presence of Melvin Gordon. IF anything, he could see afew more targets this week against a decent Vikings run defense.

Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon

Week 15 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

Phillip Lindsay, DEN at KC

DK ($5,600) FD ($6,400)

I don’t see a scenario where Lindsay doesn’t get a lot of touchesfacing the Chiefs, so he’s a viable option in GPPs and even some cash games inWeek 15. It’s been a while since he’s had a GPP-winning breakout (Week 5 atLAC), but this is a spot where I’m comfortable buying shares of him and gettingahead of the field at 25-30 percent personal ownership.

James White, NE at CIN

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,800)

The price has come up since his big Week 13 performance (and he’sa tough fit on FD at $6,800), but White looks like he could have some scoringupside this week against a bad Bengals defense. It’s possible Belichick dialsdown into a running game heavier on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, but White hasmaintained enough involvement (aside from the Dallas game) to warrant considerationin GPPs on DK.

Patrick Laird, MIA at NYG

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,500)

Laird is not a stud running back who’s probablygoing to get you 25+ this week, but he’s really the only guy the Dolphins trustright now and he’s in a decent matchup. He rushed for 48 yards on 15carries against the Jets last week and hauled in 4-38-0 on five targets. TheGiants are similarly putrid in their defensive depth and could see Laird notch75 plus total yards and a score – making him a decent value play in allformats.

Additional plays: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis (if Henry inactive or limited)

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MONKEYKNIFEFIGHT.COM PICK – Play this Pick here and get 100 percent bonus!

Goal: 48.5, Prize: 2x

Lets go with what could be some heavy volume for a couple of RBs in good spots in this Week 15 game with Phillip Lindsay and LeSean McCoy, adding Tyreek Hill to the mix. These guys should easily total 48.5 fantasy points barring an injury to one of them.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 14 GPP Picks Of Destiny

4 years ago

written by

Week 14 in NFL DFS is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud: Lamar Jackson ($8,700 FD)

He does not have an easy matchup, but he is also matchup proof. He should be lower owned than normal this week in NFL DFS and I have no problem playing him at that kind of ownership. Much like CMC, I do not fade Lamar Jackson. We have seen this Ravens team “mercy rule” a couple opponents so far this year. This offense is legit and it is all because of the MVP contender. Expect Lamar Jackson to do Lamar Jackson things again this week. Three to Four TD’s (either on the ground or through the air) isn’t out of the question.

Pivot: DeShaun Watson (way too cheap), Aaron Rodgers

Value: Sam Darnold ($7,700 FD)

Sam Darnold plays much better at home and get the visiting Miami Dolphins (31st in the NFL) this Sunday. The Dolphins have given up 28 passing touchdowns this season, which is only two behind the Arizona Cardinals. Pair Darnold up with Crowder, Anderson or Griffin in what I think will be a high scoring NFL DFS game.

Pivot: Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($11,000 FD)

He is in another fantastic spot. I will have a ton of him.

Stud Pivot: Derick Henry, Nick Chubb

Value RB: DeVonta Freeman ($6,000 FD)

The Carolina Panthers are a team you want to target with running backs. They have allowed the most scores on the ground in the NFL this year. Freeman is CHEAP and the wide receivers all seem to be dealing with injury setbacks. If Freeman doesn’t come in looking rusty (like he tends to do sometimes) he should smash his cheap salary. This feels like Freeman’s best NFL DFS spot all year.

Pivots: Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette

Value: Powell, Laird (DK)

Punts/High Risk: Kareem Hunt, Sony Michel, Benny Snell (FD), Jaylen Samuels (DK)

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Stefon Diggs ($8,000 FD)

Adam Thielen is doubtful, Dalvin Cook is banged up and the Detroit Lions are ranked in the bottom of the NFL defending WR1’s. Diggs should receive around double digit targets here and get a few deep looks down the field. I am not in love with any of the other high priced receivers this week making Diggs a nice pivot from the bigger named superstar studs. Diggs is sliding under the radar this week and is literally in a better spot than everyone priced above him.

Stud Pivots: DaVante Adams, Julio Jones (if he plays, he should)

Mid WR:

Keenan Allen ($6,800 FD) Simply too cheap on FanDuel. He is the clear number one receiver for the Chargers and the Jags can be beat on the ground and through the air. Keenan Allen is this weeks Alshon Jeffrey.

DeVante Parker ($7,200 FD) He has over 10 targets in each of the last four weeks. He caught two touchdowns (almost three) last week and is clearly Fitzpatrick’s favorite target He gets the 23rd ranked pass defense in what I expect to be a high scoring game. His price went up, but so did his upside.

Zach Pascal ($6,100 FD) He is not a “true WR1” but he is the best thing that Jacoby Brisett has against the Tampa Bay poor pass defense. Another case of being too cheap in NFL DFS.

Pivots: Courtland Sutton, DJ Moore, James Washington

Punt Wide Receivers: Curtis Samuel, Sammy Watkins, Russell Gage

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph ($4,800 FD)

He has six touchdowns in the last six games. Thielen is out again and Dalvin Cook is beat up. The offense should run through Diggs, Rudolph and the running back (notice I didn’t say Cook there). When Thielen has been out it has helped Rudolph tremendously. The price for him makes no sense on FanDuel. Kyle Rudolph is a free square this week in NFL DFS.

Tight End Pivots: Jack Doyle, Ryan Griffin, Vance McDonald

Defense

Packers
Vikings
Steelers
Texans
Punt: Bengals

I will tweet out when there are NFL DFS updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

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4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 14 DFS RB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

We’ve got your NFL Week 14 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expertchats and more!

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Cash Game Plays

Christian McCaffrey, CAR at ATL

DK ($10,300) FD ($11,000)

McCaffrey is coming off his lowest-scoring performance since Week 2, and only the second game since then that he didn’t score a TD. But CMC should have plenty of opportunities to remedy when he visits the Falcons in Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday. Treat last week as an anomaly and take advantage of the $200 price drop on DK!

Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET

DK ($9,500) FD ($8,700)

Cook normally doesn’thave the upside of CMC, but he’s in a great spot versus the Lions, who rank amongthe worst three defenses in the league against RBs. Cook left the Week 13 lossto the Seahawks on Monday night a little early after injuring his chest, but he’snot on the injury report and there’s no indication he’ll be limited Sunday. He’sgot a 10-point floor and 30-point upside and offers a somewhat cheaper optionthan the top dog.

Derrick Henry, TEN at OAK

DK ($8,200) FD ($8,600)

Henryhas been a godsend for DFS players over the past few weeks, and he’s seeking anotherproductive performance against a Raiders defense that’s yielded 134.8 yardsfrom scrimmage per game and 13 touchdowns to running backs so far this season.

Also consider:Devonta Freeman (value cash play)

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – GPP Plays

Aaron Jones, GB vs. WAS

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,800)

Jones dealt with some ankle pain last week but this home matchup againstthe Redskins is about as favorable as you can get. The Packers have an impliedtotal over 27 points, and while we should still see Jamaal Williams (knee) getsome work, both backs offer upside in this smash spot.

Leonard Fournette, JAC vs.LAC

DK ($7,400) FD ($7,500)

Fournette is a lock for 20+ touches this week at home against the Chargers, and he’s seen 23 targets over the past two weeks operating as a workhorse back in all aspects on the Jags offense. His floor remains round 10-12 points and he’s got a 30-point upside.

Nick Chubb,CLE vs. CIN

DK ($8,000) FD ($7,900)

Chubb isn’t cheap, but I could see him matching his production fromthe Miami game a couple of weeks ago, when he rolled for 106 yards and a TD,adding 3-58-0 receiving. The additional of Kareem Hunt has hurt his week-to-weekconsistency, but Chubb is in a positive game script here and the Bengals cannotstop him.

Also consider: Joe Mixon, JamesWhite

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Contrarian GPP Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO vs. SF

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,600)

Kamara has a tough matchup vs. the 49ers on Sunday, but the game is in New Orleans on the turf and this could be a higher-scoring game than the 44.5 game total. The Saints have a 23.5 implied total, and a lot of that should be the fruits of Kamara’s and Michael Thomas’ labor. A contrarian GPP plays for those of you who think the Saints could hand the 49ers their third loss in Week 14.

Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN

DK ($6,300) FD ($7,000)

Even with Melvin Gordon getting regular carries, Ekeler has scoredfour receiving TDs over his last six games. He’s got plenty of big plays in himdue to his speed and elusiveness, and I’m committed to using him in GPPs as acontrarian play once again in Week 14.

Also consider: Todd Gurley,Devin Singletary, Mark Ingram

Week 14 DFS RunningBack – Value/Punt Plays

LeSean McCoy, KC at NE

DK ($4,400) FD ($6,100)

McCoy will get the start on Sunday against the Patriots and while it’s not a great matchup, he should see enough involvement to pay off his dirt-cheap price at $4,400 on DK. I’m less interested in FanDuel, where he’s over $6K.

Alexander Mattison, MIN vs.DET

DK ($4,500) FD ($5,100)

It’s not often you can recommend two RBs in the same offense, but theLions defense has been so bad vs. RBS that it could be warranted. Mattison’s presencelimits Cook’s GPP upside a little bit, and we could easily see 10-15 touchesfor the backup RB in a positive game script at home this week.

Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Melvin Gordon, Bilal Powell (if Bell out), Darwin Thompson

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4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Week 13 GPP Picks Of Destiny

4 years ago

written by

Week 13 in NFL DFS is about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with a high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

There will be updates closer to lock. Check back Sunday morning.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($8,600 FD)

The Chiefs play the Oakland Raiders who are ranked bottom three in touchdowns allowed through the air and average catch per yard for receivers. We have been targeting Oakland all year and now we have an elite QB getting to pick apart this defense at home with all of his receiving options healthy. He is our top NFL DFS quarterback this week.

Stud Pivot: Lamar Jackson ($8,700 FD)

I will have plenty of Lamar Jackson when a lot of people are going to fade the current MVP of the league in NFL DFS this week. The matchup against the 49ers is a tough one, but I truly believe Jackson can beat any defense in the league. If we are getting Jackson at 10% ownership it is an easy play. You don’t have to get too cute at QB this week. Play the top price guys or the value guy I have listed below.

Value Quarterback: Andy Dalton ($6,000 FD)

I can hardly contain my excitement to play Andy Dalton in NFL DFS this week. He returns as the starter for the Bengals and is going to make a statement. He got pulled earlier this season because the Bengals couldn’t win a game, but I think this is the week they finally pull off a W. Dalton’s fantasy numbers were fine before he got benched (most weeks), and now we get a severe discount on him against a middle of the road Jets pass defense. Pair him up with Boyd (or another receiver) and rest easy. He is going to exceed value this week. I will have more of him on DK where he is even more underpriced than on FanDuel.

Pivot: Sam Darnold

Running Backs

Stud RB: Christian McCaffrey ($11,000 FD)

Lock him in or quit playing NFL DFS. That’s it, that’s the analysis.

Stud Pivot: Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones

Mid RB: Le’Veon Bell ($7,300 FD)

The Bengals have allowed the most yards on the ground this season in the NFL. Le’Veon Bell is a duel threat RB with a quarterback who has looked sharp the past few weeks. I would not be surprised to see the Jets trailing in this one (you read that right) and leaning on their stud back more than they have needed to the past couple of weeks. Cincinnati has allowed the the third most rushing touchdowns this season.

Pivots: Phillip Lindsay

Value RB: Ronald Jones ($6,200 FD)

Tampa goes against the Jacksonville Jaguars who have been getting dominated on the ground. Last week Derrick Henry put up 158 yards and two touchdowns on them. While Jones is no Henry, he has been playing very well in his new lead back role the past few weeks. He has five touchdowns in his last seven games and is way underpriced. The Jags are currently ranked 26th against NFL DFS running backs this year. Jones should get in the box once again this Sunday.

Punts/High Risk: Miles Sanders, LeSean McCoy, Kenyan Drake, Darrel Williams

I will update again closer to Sunday. Be sure to check back.

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Tyreek Hill ($8,300 FD)

He is my favorite NFL DFS quarterback’s most reliable downfield threat against a defense the Chiefs should pick apart. If Hill is on the field all four quarters he should be the highest scoring wide receiver on the slate. He has 100+ yard and multiple touchdown potential.

Stud Pivots: DaVante Adams, Cooper Kupp

Mid WR: I have three guys who I love this week in NFL DFS and will have a lot of exposure too. All three are in great spots and are the WR1 on their team and will be heavily targeted.

Tyler Boyd: He scores touchdowns at home and he got Andy Dalton back this week.
DeVante Parker: He has over 10 targets in each of the last three weeks. He gets the 27th ranked pass defense.
DJ Chark: Double digit target potential against the terrible Tampa Bay defensive backfield.

Punt Wide Receiver: Alex Erickson, Andy Isabella (Big GPP guys if you have multiple teams, don’t use in cash)

Tight End

Jack Doyle ($5,000 FD)

He is underpriced and the Colts starting tight end, Eric Ebron, is done for he season. Doyle will be treated like a WR2 in this game against the Titans who rank 22nd against the TE. He has two touchdowns in his past three games. The best part about that stat is Ebron was active in all of those games and Doyle still outproduced him. A huge NFL DFS opportunity awaits Doyle this Sunday.

Tight End Pivots: Tyler Higbee (love him), Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry

Defense

Panthers
Ravens
Steelers
Browns

I will tweet out when there are NFL DFS updates. Be sure to follow me @tenaciousdjones on Twitter so you don’t miss out!

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4 years ago 0 comment

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