Tag:

Aaron Rodgers

Monkey Knife Fight: Win Daily Sports Picks and Plays Week 15

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

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Today I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite plays on Monkey Knife Fight. Even though Covid has run rampant in the NFL, we still have an action packed Sunday with some solid plays.

More or Less 3.6x Payout

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants (269.5 Passing Yards) – More

If you read my QB’s and Stacks article this week, you know that I love Dak Prescott this week. He’s coming off a subpar game against Washington in which threw for only 211 yards. Dallas should come out firing today against a Giants team that has been absolutely brutal against the pass this year. The Giants have given up at least 270 passing yards in 4 of their last 6 games. One of the games they didn’t was against a team that runs a run heavy offense.

Prescott faced the Giants in Week 5 and threw for 302 yards with 3 touchdowns. I see no reason why he shouldn’t replicate that feat. I’m siding with the More side of the 269.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us today.

Mike Glennon vs. Dallas Cowboys (185.5 Passing Yards) – More

This one gets a little trickier as Mike Glennon just hasn’t played much. I’m going to go w/ more game theory in this pick though because this is a game that should get out of hand pretty early. I expect the Cowboys to get up early in this one. Probably after their first possession. With my expectation that the Cowboys will be up early and often in this one the Giants will have to play through the air today in an effort to catch up.

With that, Glennon should get a ton of passing volume today. He has only 2 starts this year at QB but in both games he hit his number that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us. The Cowboys have given up at least 200 yards in all but 2 games this season. That continues today as Glennon gets over the 200 yards mark. I’m also going with the More side on this one.

More or Less 3x Payout

Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers vs. Baltimore Ravens (265.5 Passing Yards) – More

Similar to Prescott, Aaron Rodgers is one of my favorite QB’s this week. He’s going into a matchup against a depleted Ravens secondary. Even with a healthy secondary, the Ravens have given up the second most passing yards on the year. Only the Seahawks have given up more passing yards.

Rodgers is coming into this one in peak form, throwing for at least 292 yards in 4 straight games. Monkey Knife Fight has the number set at 265.5 yards, a number that Rodgers has failed to get just twice in the last 8 weeks. I just don’t see how he doesn’t easily get to this number today. I’m going with the More side on this too.

Devonta Freeman vs. Green Bay Packers (52.5 Rushing Yards) – Less

This is going to be a weird week for the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been ruled out just yet, but he also hasn’t practiced all week. Should he miss this week, the Ravens game plan will be a different one than we’ve been accustomed to. Although Huntley filled in admirably last weekend, he’s still not in the same category as Jackson.

Regardless, I just don’t see Freeman getting to the 52.5 target that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us today. On the year it’s a number that Freeman has only gotten to twice. Once last week against the Browns and then also in week 9 vs. the Vikings. The Packers have one of the best run defenses in the league. Only 6 teams have given up fewer rushing yards to running backs all year. They should have no trouble keeping Freeman in check today. On this one, I’m going with the Less side.

Good luck and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! !

2 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS: Quarterbacks and Stacks – Week 15 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of QB’s and Stacks. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for A Through Z. With Covid making its way virtually through every locker room, it’s going to be a weird week. We’ll want to make sure that we are keeping as close of an eye to injury reports a...

2 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 2 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Lions at Packers

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams
T.J. Hockenson
Aaron Jones
D’Andre Swift
Jared Goff
Robert Tonyan
Jamaal Williams
Randall Cobb
Quintez Cephus
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Marques Valdez-Scantling
A.J. Dillon
Packers DST
Allen Lazard
Mason Crosby
Trinity Benson
Austin Seibert
Lions DST
Marcedes Lewis
Daniel Fells
Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

3 years ago 0 comment

Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – NFC Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.

Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.

GPP – Davante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.

What a cool-looking card — and not too expensive!

Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.

If you look closely, you can see some minor edge issues that could prevent this card from grading a Gem Mint 10.

New Orleans Saints

Cash – Drew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.

GPP – Alvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.

The 2017 Donruss set is filled with big rookies, including Kamara, Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.

Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cash – Tom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.

Is this Brady rookie card worth $250K in a PSA 10? There are only seven graded that high on the PSA registry.

GPP – Ronald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.

Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.

Los Angeles Rams

Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.

GPP – Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.

Punt – Van Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf

GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson

Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Packers at 49ers

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Let’s start with a snapshot of the top options at captain on DK:

Wow. That’s a lot of red — but at least we don’t see any injury notes next to the top two options: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers is actually cheaper than Adams but my guess is that he’ll end up being the chalk in the top spot. We’ll know a little bit closer to lock if that’s the case.

Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Davante Adams (DK $18,600, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Mullens (DK $13,800, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jerick McKinnon (DK $12,000, FD $7,000)

Aaron Jones is still nursing a calf injury and is listed as questionable – he’ll be a game-time decision and his absence would force the Packers to start someone a relative unknown, be that DK minimum-price Tyler Ervin (who has logged the most field time of the available Green Bay RBs this season with four carries for 43 rushing yards and 6-33-0 on nine receiving targets) or 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams, who’s minimum price (DK $300, FD $5,000) on both sites.

Jones has played injured before, and he’s even been effective – so as of writing this I’m expecting him to suit up. After Adams, we could see lots of targets for TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard (if he comes off IR before the game and is activated), and even the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

On the 49ers side, things are looking even more bleak, with all the team’s high-profile fantasy starters missing tonight’s contest – including QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), TE George Kittle (broken foot, IR), RBs Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, out) and Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), as well a triumvirate of WRs in the speedy Deebo Samuel (COVID-19), rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19), and red-zone target Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19). Dante Pettis (shoulder) got cut this week and promptly signed with the Giants.

We’re left with backup QB Nick Mullens, quick-twitch RB Jerick McKinnon, rookie RB JaMycal Hasty, TEs Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley, and these WRs: Trent Taylor, Richie James (questionable with an ankle injury) and practice squad bodies River Cracraft (not joking) and Kevin White, who was once a highly regarded WR prospect for the Bears.

I expect to see a lot of two-TE sets and formations with both McKinnon (lined up as a WR) and Hasty. This is madness, but we can embrace it and use it to our advantage in this showdown.

There will be no trouble fitting the top few performers from both teams if we punt CPT on DK, but even with Rodgers or Adams at 1.5x we can likely get Ervin or Dexter Williams and another Packers pass catcher in there alongside the SF pieces we like.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play minimum salary guys tonight. There are several who could have a huge impact on this game.

DO: Stay tuned to the inactives and make the necessary pivots. There may be a few builds that we don’t need to tinker with once we know the status of Aaron Jones, but I’m sure there will be relevant breaking news as we approach 8 p.m.

DON’T: Forget about defenses and kickers. Mistakes could abound in this game, and while we’ve seen some poor play from the Packers DST, they and the 49ers DST could be worth a look.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Aaron Rodgers
Davante Adams
Aaron Jones (questionable)
Jerick McKinnon
Nick Nullens
JaMycal Hasty
Robert Tonyan
Jordan Reed
Trent Taylor
Tyler Ervin (bump above Hasty if Jones is out)
Dexter Williams (if Jones is out)
Allen Lazard (if active)
Mason Crosby
Ross Dwelley
Packers DST
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Robbie Gould
49ers DST
Jace Sternberger
Richie James (questionable)
Equanimeous St. Brown
Kyle Juszczyk

Note: Injuries could also force us to consider Packers WR Malik Taylor (if Lazard is still out), Kevin White (if James is inactive) and 84-year-old Paul Hornung (joking).

Good luck!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 1

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

General GPP Note:
Everyone and their brother is going to be using DeSean Jackson/Marvin Jones/Boston Scott/Davante Adams. I will rarely have a lineup with more than one of those players this week. Do not stack up that chalk and expect to be different unless you mix in some incredibly low-owned upside elsewhere.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers ($6,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – Rodgers is going completely under the radar this weekend against arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL (on paper). The AETY Model has him projected for ~270 passing yards and this matchup grades as good as it did for Rodgers since Week 7 of last year against Oakland… Go look at that box score.

Rodgers is likely to be in my main lineup and we can obviously pair him up with Davante Adams (maybe even Lazard and/or Aaron Jones). Use Dalvin Cook on the back-end for a little game stack.
AETY Projection: 18.35 Points
Mitch Trubisky ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Even Vegas player props have Trubisky projected for over 250 passing yards, lol. Trubisky has great history against Detroit and their man-coverage. I’ve been talking about him as a value all week and will have plenty of exposure.

Stack Options: Miller/Robinson, Miller/Graham, Robinson/Graham, Robinson/Cohen, Miller/Cohen.
AETY Projection: 17.44 Points
Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $8,400 FD) – This is the nuts matchup for Russell Wilson. I don’t really care what ownership is, I’ll have a lot of him.

Stack Options: Metcalf/Lockett, Lockett/Carson, Metcalf/Carson
AETY Projection: 21.86 Points

Honorable Mention: Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson (obviously), Josh Allen

NFL DFS GPP: Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD) – See the Cash Game Checkdown for write-up. I love him this weekend.
AETY Projection: 20.19 DK / 18.46 FD
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,800 DK) – Aaron Jones loves playing the Minnesota Vikings, averaging over 133 all-purpose yards in their last three meetings. I love Rodgers. I love Jones. I love this low owned combination paired up with a chalky (rightfully so), Davante Adams.
AETY Projection: 16.52 DK / 14.92 FD
Todd Gurley ($6,100 DK / $7,100 FD) – He’s just too cheap and a great opportunity to get exposure to a high-total game where everyone is playing these wide receivers. There is no threat behind Gurley regarding snap count, so Atlanta is likely to ride him. Gurley will get it done on Sunday at sub-10% ownership.

Chris Carson on the other side is also a very nice, low-owned option for contrarian exposure to this shoot-out.
AETY Projection: 17.60 DK / 15.74 FD
Nick Chubb ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD) – You have all heard me praise this Stefanski outside-zone running scheme, so it should be no surprise that I’m into Chubb this week. No one is going to play him despite having an improved offensive line and dominating on a weekly basis in 2019. He’s going to get a lot of touches and we just need to hope talent and scheme outweigh a great defense.
AETY Projection: 14.43 DK / 13.53 FD
Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK / $6,200 FD) – I’m not a believer in Arizona’s defense just yet and always want some exposure for the late-hammer in the afternoon games. I trust Shanahan’s outside-zone run scheme to take over and run away with this game. If Tevin Coleman has to miss this game due to the air quality, Mostert could offer your lineups some strong, late-upside.
AETY Projection: 13.50 DK / 12.83 FD
Matt Breida ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD) – I’ll keep this one simple. Breida is going to be sub-3% owned in a gamescript where the Dolphins will be chasing points. Jordan Howard won’t be involved in the “playing catch-up” scheme. Breida is going to hit 2-3x value in our NFL DFS GPP lineups, with over 60 all-purpose yards. If he can get in the box, he can be a difference maker in GPPs and an excellent pivot off of Boston Scott/Antonio Gibson chalk.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK / 9.69 FD

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Tarik Cohen

*Keep in mind, you do-not need to use two pass catchers with your Quarterbacks. Just wanted to give you some of the options I’ll be using.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($6,400 DK / $7,000 FD) – If Mike Williams misses this game, Keenan Allen is going to be busy in what should be one of the higher-paced games on the slate.
AETY Projection: 15.70 DK / 12.46 FD
DJ Moore ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Everyone in the industry absolutely loved DJ Moore ALL OFF-SEASON long, but no one wants to play him in a plus-matchup against a rookie cornerback and Trayvon Mullen? I don’t get it, lol. The industry is full of frauds if DJ Moore is truly under 10% owned. Load him up.
AETY Projection: 15.11 DK / 12.09 FD
DJ Chark ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up from the get-go on Sunday. Chark is likely to see a 30% market share of the passes from Gardnew Minshew and that’s all I need to know. This team is going to be awful all year long, but no one in the Colts’ secondary can contain Chark.
AETY Projection: 14.85 DK / 12.12 FD
Anthony Miller ($5,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – I won’t eat DeSean Jackson chalk so Anthony Miller is likely to be my pivot. This dude can run crisp routes and tear apart man-coverage that Detroit is likely to throw at him. We probably will have a lot of Marvin Jones for value and one of Miller/Robinson are perfect candidates to pair on the other side.
AETY Projection: 11.34 DK / 9.11 FD

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Preston Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendrick Bourne, Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard, Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Trent Taylor

NFL DFS GPP: Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD) – He may not be under the radar by any means, but no one has the ceiling Andrews does against Cleveland this Sunday. He’s always in play and isn’t priced up where he should be.
AETY Projection: 14.32 DK / 11.94 FD
TJ Hockenson ($4,200 DK / $5,300 FD) – No Golladay = A lot of target share to open up on Sunday. As everyone flocks to Marvin Jones (don’t get me wrong, I’ll have some too), I prefer moving down to Hockenson as I’m expecting a big opportunity in his favor. The AETY Model loves his chances of getting in the end-zone and he makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP target.
AETY Projection: 11.53 / 9.42
Mike Gesicki ($4,500 DK / $5,400 FD) – Miami will be chasing points. New England’s linebackers cannot keep up with Gesicki. He’s probably my favorite GPP tight-end and someone I’ll always have on the other side of my Cam Newton stacks.
AETY Projection: 8.65 DK / 6.97 FD

Honorable Mention: Ian Thomas, Hunter Henry, Dallas Goeddert, Jimmy Graham

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 17 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Starting off with a bit of a wild card here. Sam Darnold has been looking improved in his last five games with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the fifth seed for the playoffs and this game means absolutely nothing but pride for them. They have already ruled Shaq Lawson out and Darnold played decent against the Bills Week One while dealing with mono. Expect a great performance at this price and pay up for other skill positions in your lineup.

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

The naysayers will say that Brady doesn’t perform well in South Florida but I would counter that with a look at this Miami Dolphins team. This is a great chance for the Patriots offense to get back in stride with a weaker opponent heading into a probable bye week. Tom Brady had one of his better statistical games against this Dolphins team with 264 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a nice performance at another relatively cheaper price than normal for the quarterback slot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over with just three interceptions this season. The Lions have surpassed the Arizona Cardinals as the worst passing defense in the NFL and have six interceptions, the lowest in the league. Aaron Rodgers should be a gunslinger in this game and be around 300 yards as well. No need to discount double-check this decision.

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

With the division title on the line in Week 17 in a primetime matchup, there are very few quarterbacks I would want outside of Russell Wilson. Coming off an all-around stinker against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks should come out on all cylinders against the 49ers. Yes, the numbers say the 49ers pass defense should limit him but the last three weeks do not look good for that defense.

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

He currently is listed as questionable with a back injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is under center on Sunday afternoon. Going up against a hungry Titans team still competing for a playoff opportunity, Watson will have the energy to compete instead of “taking the week off”. He played well in the matchup these two teams had earlier in the season and I expect very similar numbers out of him as well.

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Patrick Mahomes had a bit of a struggle at points in this season but last year’s MVP has been heating up in his last three games. He played against top-level defenses in that span and should be easier for him with the Chargers in town. With the opportunity of a potential bye still looming, expect Patrick Mahomes to showcase his abilities on Sunday.

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Jameis is on the injury report ahead of this game with a thumb and knee injury. This Atlanta team is completely different than the one Winston saw a month ago, with three consecutive victories and a team that will not be changing regimes in the offseason. Without some of his favorite targets on the field due to injury, expect a stinker from Jameis to end this season.

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Do not buy into last week’s offensive performance from Case Keenum once Dwayne Haskins was carted off. This Cowboys team is somehow still competing for the NFC East crown and need to win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. Keenum had back-to-back stinkers before being demoted to the backup and that’s more of what I expect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

The fact that he is facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England defense is the main reason why Fitzpatrick is on this list. With a New England victory, they clinch a Wild Card bye and that will motivate the defense. I don’t necessarily believe he will turn into FitzTragic here, but I’m not believing in the Miami offense either.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 317.5 passing yards.

You can read about each of these quarterbacks above but as a summary, Jameis Winston should struggle without his main weapons against the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand should have a 300 yard day with the Chargers looking to end their miserable 2019 season.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 15 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo, ATL vs SF

DK ($5,600) FD ($8,400)

He is coming off of one of his best games as a starting quarterback and the Falcons defense shouldn’t cause issues. Atlanta is allowing a 100.3 passer rating this season, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Garoppolo is playing with solid receivers that will create separation. With the 49ers still trying to win the NFC West, they should be ready while the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. Even with a backup center for the remainder of the season, Garoppolo should still have a solid game.

Tom Brady, NE @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

This should be the bounce-back week for the Patriots offense in general as they travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns so don’t expect the huge total from Brady. However, he doesn’t turn the ball over often and is a cheaper option on the slate. The Bengals allow 64 percent of passes to be completed so expect Brady’s accuracy to increase from where it has been the previous month. Expect a nice rebound game against a team poised to have the first pick in the NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers, CHI vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

This game is completely different than when these two teams met to open up the season. The Chicago Bears are dealing with injuries across the defense with Roquan Smith being placed on IR as well as Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan potentially missing this game. Aaron Rodgers should dominate a depleted defense and this Bears team has given up at least 275 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last three games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.3 percent of his passes this season and only threw two interceptions so far. Expect Rodgers to continue playing well and get closer to locking up the NFC North.

Week 15 Quarterback GPP Plays

Jameis Winston, TB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Winston had a great statistical game passing the ball last week against the Indianapolis Colts without Mike Evans. Evans is currently doubtful for this matchup as of this writing. Tampa ranks second in passing yards per game and the Lions allow the third-most passing yards in the league. I do not see a situation where Detroit can stop Jameis, all they can do is hope he coughs up the football multiple times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,700)

Not sure if I am pro-Baker or anti-Arizona this week. Baker should feast against this Arizona defense that is the worst at passing defense. They allow the most yards per game, touchdowns and best passer rating in the league. Baker is completing under 60 percent of his passes this season but this should be the return to last year’s version of Mayfield with a soft opposing defense. The Browns somehow have a chance to still make the playoffs and need this win, so expect Baker to come out with a lot of emotion.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ CAR

DK ($ 7,000) FD ($8,100)

Carolina is still trying to find out their identity as the season is reaching its end. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league with the second-most sacks. However, Carolina has two of their DE on the injury report. Expect Wilson to have his usual game as the running game will set him up for some big plays.

Week 15 Quarterback Fades

Mitch Trubisky, CHI @ GB

DK ($,6000) FD ($7,500)

The Packers are a different team at home than they are on the road. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions on the year and Tribusky is prone to mistakes. The Packers are trying to lock up this division and defeating the Bears could eliminate Chicago from the playoffs. Expect the Green Bay defense to lock down Tribusky and turn him back into a pumpkin.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ NE

DK ($4,900) FD ($7,000)

Bill Belichick will shut down Andy Dalton, plain and simple. Dalton has had a solid couple games since being renamed the starting quarterback but that was against the Jets and Browns. The Patriot defense struggles against speedy teams and the Bengals do not have much speed. Expect this to get ugly early and potentially see Dalton pulled late.

Josh Allen, BUF @ PIT

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Buffalo has two of their offensive tackles on the injury report, which is a little concerning. Pittsburgh’s passing defense is one of the best in football with the most sacks, fifth-least passing yards, and 18 interceptions. Allen has been good this year but the Bills offense has stuttered at times this season and against an elite defense is prone to do so again in primetime.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Jimmy Garoppolo over 270.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards.

Atlanta is allowing 258.2 passing yards per game and this is the time for Garoppolo to sling the football. Atlanta stops the run well so look for a large number of passing attempts and Jimmy G should finish with 300+ yards. San Francisco is coming off their worst pass-defending games in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. However, the Falcons do not have nearly the amount of weapons that the Saints did. The 49ers also rank first in pass defense this season so Matt Ryan should easily hit the under.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 14 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 14 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Aaron Rodgers, WAS vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,400)

Another week, another NFC East team with little-to-no chance to stop Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The Washington Redskins do not hold the ball enough and this smells like a dominant Packers performance where Aaron Rodgers shows why he is still one of the best passers in the league.

Delvin Hodges, PIT @ ARI

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,000)

Delvin Hodges has looked good in his limited action thus far this season. The Arizona Cardinals have been the worst against the pass as they have given up 307 yards and 31 touchdowns (both lead the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks are able to make big plays with 60 passes of at least 20 yards happening. Even with Juju Smith-Schuster looking like he won’t play, I can’t expect anything out of this Cardinal defense. Hodges isn’t going to dominate here, but he is a valuable option that won’t cost you.

Drew Brees, SF vs NO

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,700)

The first half of last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens has soured me a tiny bit off the 49ers. New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South and now it’s time for the Saints to try to capture a bye in the Wild Card round. San Francisco is one of the best against the passing game but it’s Drew Brees we are talking about. He’s one of the only quarterbacks I blindly follow no matter who is opposing Brees.

Week 14 Quarterback GPP Plays

Pat Mahomes, KC @ NE

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,400)

This one is the “hot take” choice because this one can burn you easily and the number one rule (Belichick eliminates your number one option). However, the one thing that the New England defense struggles with is speed and that was evident against the Ravens and Texans so far. The Chiefs are faster than either of those teams and Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship. Speed is the kryptonite this year and will take it until the Patriots show me otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, DET vs MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,200)

Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated this season with a 23:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In Week 7 when these two teams met, Cousins had one of his best games on the season. Detroit gives up the third-most passing yards per game and allowed 25 passing touchdowns through 12 games. With the weapons that Minnesota has offensively, expect a big game out of good ole’ Kirk Cousins.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,000)

The current runner-up to the MVP is definitely a solid quarterback option this week. Against the Rams in Week 5, Wilson torched them for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams don’t scare me as much as others that I am seeing. I don’t expect that type of performance but something in that ballpark wouldn’t be too eye-opening.

Week 14 Quarterback Fades

Gardner Minshew II, LAC vs JAX

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,600)

Minshew Mania is back as the Jaguars announced he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. However, it’s because of Nick Foles’ play and not because Minshew was the bright star off the bench. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the pass this season and should shut Minshew and the Jaguars passing game down this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,000)

After being viewed as the savior returning to the starting role and picking up Cincinnati’s first victory of the season, I don’t expect much from Dalton. The Bengals aren’t riding that emotional wave of Dalton’s return this week and the Browns are still in the Wild Card hunt. AJ Green will be out for this game as well. Cleveland is 6th in passing defense so don’t expect a lot from the Red Rifle.

Derek Carr, TEN vs OAK

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,000)

Derek Carr is coming off his worst game this season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders are struggling right now and have lost their identity. Carr has three consecutive games with at least one interception and I wouldn’t be shocked if he extended that streak. The Titans average just under an interception per game and should pick him off. They do not give up passing touchdowns or allow quarterbacks to get into a rhythm so don’t expect too much out of Derek Carr this week.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Jameis Winston under 310.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 286.5 passing yards.

Indianapolis allows 226.9 passing yards per game and should control the clock in this game. I see a couple of Winston turnovers costing him the opportunity to reach 311 yards or more. Matt Ryan won’t get the chance either as the Panthers have fired Ron Rivera and will probably be run-heavy with a short week with their interim coach. Chrisitan McCaffrey should dominate this game and not give Ryan a lot of time with the ball.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 13 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 4 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 13 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

Sam Darnold has been on a roll the past three weeks throwing just one interception. He has not faced the stiffest of competitions with the Giants, Redskins, and Raiders in that span. The offense is clicking and facing another weak opponent in Cincinnati. Going up against a Bengals team that The Bengals allow 251 yards per game and are in a position to lose this game to secure the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Expect a big day at a great price for Darnold.

Jared Goff, LAR @ ARI

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,900)

This is the game where Goff shuts the critics up because he has to. People are now asking the question if he was worth the $110 million guaranteed money and coming off a bad game on Monday night. However, the Arizona Cardinals are the perfect remedy for this Rams offense. Goff is completing 62% of his passes this season and the Arizona Cardinals allow 297.5 yards a game through the pass. The team also allows the most passing touchdowns, passing first downs and quarterback ratings in the league. This is the perfect opportunity for Goff to correct a lot of his mistakes made in the past month.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN @ IND

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,300)

This might come as a shocker but Ryan Tannehill has the second-highest completion percentage this season with 72.1%. The only concern is his yards per game are just over 200, but the Colts give up 34 passing attempts a game and allow 235 passing yards a game. On a shorter slate due to the Thanksgiving games, there might be value going outside the norm for the quarterback position.

Week 13 Quarterback GPP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ NYG

DK ($6,500) FD ($8,100)

After getting humiliated against the Baltimore Ravens last week on a national level, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing in New York. He doesn’t turn the ball over as he has thrown just two interceptions. Rodgers has weapons and a running game to mix in some play-action passes. This Giants defense is not great against the passing attack either. The Giants allowed 260 yards per game and has given 18 touchdowns.

Carson Wentz, PHI @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,300)

Carson Wentz has looked like he has taken a step back lately but the injuries to skill position players for the Eagles seem to continue. As of this writing, Zach Ertz missed practice with a hamstring injury and Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffrey were limited. If Wentz has two of the three then he should be great. The Dolphins do not pose much of threat defensively to stop a passing attack that the Eagles can have even without big-name targets. Miami doesn’t apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks as they recorded just 14 sacks so far. They also give up a quarterback rating of 106.8 which ranks as the second-most in the NFL. Expect a nice bounce-back performance from Wentz.

Nick Foles, JAX vs TB

DK ($5,700) FD ($7,500)

Nick Foles has looked like the quarterback the Jags were expecting after returning from injury. In the two games back, he has 47 and 48 attempts so expect the gameplan to continue to be throwing the football. The Bucs are one of the worst teams against the pass in the NFL so this matchup hugely favors Foles. Tampa allows 290 yards a game through the air and is susceptible to huge plays as they have given up 10 throws of at least 40 yards. Foles should be a high-demand player in a lot of lineups.

Week 13 Quarterback Fades

Tom Brady, NE @ HOU

DK ($6,100) FD ($8,200)

If you look at the numbers of Tom Brady, it makes you shake your head. He has the same completion percentage (62.2) as Mitchell Tribusky and a QBR of 55.8, meaning he is slightly above average this season. In his last four games, Brady threw for 237.5 yards a game and just four touchdowns. The offense isn’t counting on him to play a big role. Both the Texans and Patriots run the ball 27.5 times a game so expect the time of possessions to be inflated which could keep Brady on the sidelines.

Philip Rivers, LAC @ DEN

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Philip Rivers has not been completing passes at a high percentage lately as in the last two weeks, he has completed just 54.2%. Going up against the Denver Broncos defense is no easy order for him. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest passing yards at 207.5 yards a game. They also allow the fourth-fewest passing first downs so moving the chains is going to be difficult as well. Expect another struggling effort for Rivers as his upside isn’t great in this matchup.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ PIT

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,600)

This has the making of an ugly performance for Baker as it seems a lot will be going on. This is the Steelers first time to “get even” with the Browns since the brawl a few weeks ago. Nothing like that should happen but the Steelers will be playing with extra motivation. OBJ is questionable at the time of this writing and a limited team could struggle in this environment. Baker struggles in both road games and the fourth quarter so don’t expect much out of him in this game.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Aaron Rodgers over 277.5 passing yards and Daniel Jones over 241.5 passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers should easily eclipse this with the reasons I mentioned in his section above. Daniel Jones has the big arm and Green Bay allows 238 yards of passing a game so expecting Danny Dimes to do slightly better isn’t that much of a difficult decision.

4 years ago 0 comment

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