Week 9 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Packers at 49ers

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 9 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Let’s start with a snapshot of the top options at captain on DK:

Wow. That’s a lot of red — but at least we don’t see any injury notes next to the top two options: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers is actually cheaper than Adams but my guess is that he’ll end up being the chalk in the top spot. We’ll know a little bit closer to lock if that’s the case.

Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (DK $16,500, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Davante Adams (DK $18,600, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Nick Mullens (DK $13,800, FD $12,000)

Contrarian #2: Jerick McKinnon (DK $12,000, FD $7,000)

Aaron Jones is still nursing a calf injury and is listed as questionable – he’ll be a game-time decision and his absence would force the Packers to start someone a relative unknown, be that DK minimum-price Tyler Ervin (who has logged the most field time of the available Green Bay RBs this season with four carries for 43 rushing yards and 6-33-0 on nine receiving targets) or 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams, who’s minimum price (DK $300, FD $5,000) on both sites.

Jones has played injured before, and he’s even been effective – so as of writing this I’m expecting him to suit up. After Adams, we could see lots of targets for TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard (if he comes off IR before the game and is activated), and even the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.

On the 49ers side, things are looking even more bleak, with all the team’s high-profile fantasy starters missing tonight’s contest – including QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), TE George Kittle (broken foot, IR), RBs Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, out) and Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), as well a triumvirate of WRs in the speedy Deebo Samuel (COVID-19), rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19), and red-zone target Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19). Dante Pettis (shoulder) got cut this week and promptly signed with the Giants.

We’re left with backup QB Nick Mullens, quick-twitch RB Jerick McKinnon, rookie RB JaMycal Hasty, TEs Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley, and these WRs: Trent Taylor, Richie James (questionable with an ankle injury) and practice squad bodies River Cracraft (not joking) and Kevin White, who was once a highly regarded WR prospect for the Bears.

I expect to see a lot of two-TE sets and formations with both McKinnon (lined up as a WR) and Hasty. This is madness, but we can embrace it and use it to our advantage in this showdown.

There will be no trouble fitting the top few performers from both teams if we punt CPT on DK, but even with Rodgers or Adams at 1.5x we can likely get Ervin or Dexter Williams and another Packers pass catcher in there alongside the SF pieces we like.

Week 9 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to play minimum salary guys tonight. There are several who could have a huge impact on this game.

DO: Stay tuned to the inactives and make the necessary pivots. There may be a few builds that we don’t need to tinker with once we know the status of Aaron Jones, but I’m sure there will be relevant breaking news as we approach 8 p.m.

DON’T: Forget about defenses and kickers. Mistakes could abound in this game, and while we’ve seen some poor play from the Packers DST, they and the 49ers DST could be worth a look.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Davante Adams
3. Aaron Jones (questionable)
4. Jerick McKinnon
5. Nick Nullens
6. JaMycal Hasty
7. Robert Tonyan
8. Jordan Reed
9. Trent Taylor
10. Tyler Ervin (bump above Hasty if Jones is out)
11. Dexter Williams (if Jones is out)
12. Allen Lazard (if active)
13. Mason Crosby
14. Ross Dwelley
15. Packers DST
16. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
17. Robbie Gould
18. 49ers DST
19. Jace Sternberger
20. Richie James (questionable)
21. Equanimeous St. Brown
22. Kyle Juszczyk

Note: Injuries could also force us to consider Packers WR Malik Taylor (if Lazard is still out), Kevin White (if James is inactive) and 84-year-old Paul Hornung (joking).

Good luck!