Tag:

Aaron Rodgers

DFS: Injury Insider- Fades/Plays

Edwin Porras 4 years ago

written by Edwin Porras

Week Nine is on the horizon and it’s the time of year when the casual DFS players begin to fall off while the highly competitive people (like yourself) are looking for that extra advantage. Cue the DFS Insider Injury Edge to gain that advantage as I’ll give a comprehensive medical analysis of every fantasy relevant player injury for Week Nine. Let’s optimize those lineups.

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James White

White popped up on the injury report and he was limited in practice on Friday. As a general rule, a midweek downgrade in practice participation is not good. Given that the injury is in relation to his toe, he is probably dealing with a classic case of “turf toe” which is disruption of the ligaments that run on the underside of the big toe. This makes it extremely painful to push off when running and jumping, but it’s worth mentioning that it’s likely not too severe. However, his pain level on Sunday will determine how productive he ultimately is.

To make matters worse, the Patriots are notorious for “miscommunication” when it comes to injury news, and there’s a non-zero chance that they simply used Friday as a rest day for the pass catching back. What’s all of this mean for you? It means that from an injury perspective, I’m fading White in cash games as his range of outcomes are wider than the Mississippi river. Consequently, a potential tournament play at just $3,900 on DraftKings is Rex Burkhead, who has 14 receptions in just four full games this season. Of course, Burkhead is nothing but a deep tournament play.

Davante Adams

Speaking of Adams, he’s got a very good chance at finally playing in Week Nine, but I want to emphasize that I’m fading him in cash this week. I want to see him dig off the line of scrimmage and sprint for a full game before officially declaring him “back”. However feel free to use Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target in tournament lineups as he is astonishingly still third in targets despite missing five games. In fact, he trails Aaron Jones by just six targets for the team lead.

DeSean Jackson

Next on the DFS Insider Injury Edge is DeSean Jackson. The reality is that Jackson might require offseason surgery for this groin/abdomen issue that has now kept him out for six games. With these kinds of injuries even if active, he’s not going to be 100%. He’s a better NFL wide receiver- keeping defenses honest using his speed- than DFS play, even in tournaments. I’m not confident Jackson will be active this week, but regardless I’m fading him due to the nature of this injury and the likelihood that it has not resolved completely. As a result, Dallas Goedert ($3,100 on DraftKings) will likely continue to absorb targets as defenses key in on Zach Ertz, making Goedert a deep tournament option at tight end.

Adam Thielen

Thielen suffered a hamstring injury in Week Seven and has not played since then. He practiced all week though it was in a limited capacity and Friday was no exception. I’ve mentioned repeatedly that hamstring strains can sideline players for up to three weeks, so do not be surprised if Thielen is inactive again on Sunday. However if he is active, I’m fading him in cash and only using him in tournaments until I see that he’s truly recovered. The $7,800 price tag on DraftKings is just too much for me at this time. The last discussion point here is his teammate, Stefon Diggs. If Thielen is inactive, Diggs is a smash in cash at just $7,600 on DraftKings against a below average Kansas City Chiefs team. If Thielen is active, I’m only using one or the other (not both) in tournament lineups).

Dede Westbrook

I believe that Westbrook’s injury is coming from a potential irritation of nerves from the neck, radiating to his shoulder. This can cause numbness, tingling, and pain in both the neck and shoulder. For this reason, there’s a chance he is inactive, but either way I’m fading Westbrook completely. If Westbrook does not play in London on Sunday, Chris Conley is a fine option in single game tournaments at just $6,800 as he scored a season high 23.3 DraftKings points last week when Westbrook went down.

That’s it for this week’s DFS Insider Injury Edge. The goal here is to give you more context about fantasy relevant injuries to help you set your lineups on Sunday. Make sure you check back with me for updates on the status of certain players or any developments. Week Nine is your week to cash in.

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Image courtesy of Jeffrey Beall.

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS: Week Six MNF Showdown Guide and Podcast

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide plays for the Week-Six NFL DFS Monday Night Football slate. I will break down the top fantasy players to consider.

Week Six MNF Podcast with Anthony D’Arcangelis and Dan Wehr

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

O/U: 45 (GB -3.5)

NFL DFS: Green Bay Packers

The Packers started out a bit stagnant on offense the first two weeks, but have found their groove, putting up 27 points or more over their last three games. Their offensive line hasn’t been doing enough for the RB’s, they are averaging just over 3.50 yards per carry. Despite this, they still hold the sixth best output in terms of FPTS per game (33) and will face a Lions defense who is giving up over 120 yards per game on the ground. They also allow opposing RB’s to average nearly 32 FPTS per game. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t exactly been outstanding, but I suppose he is to be considered. He is currently averaging just 16 FPTS per game, and in a game where the Packers should play from ahead, I can see Matthew Stafford serving as a better option at QB just due to the weapons around him and his overall consistency from a fantasy standpoint.

NFL DFS: Detroit Lions

On the Detroit side I am also a big fan of the running game. They average nearly four yards per carry and 120 yards per game on the ground. Green Bay is giving up a league worst 5.44 yards per carry. They are the worst in third and short situations, as well as goal line situations. Kerryon Johnson should have a very nice day on the ground. Detroit has a top offensive line against the pass rush, they have only allowed seven sacks but face a GB defensive line who ranks in the top ten in getting to the QB. My take is the Lions are able to stave off the Packers pass rush by establishing an effective run game. This, in turn, should create a good offensive balance and Stafford should have ample opportunity to throw the ball.

NFL DFS: DraftKings Approach

NFL DFS Captain:

Preferred (in order of preference): Kerryon Johnson ($12,900), Aaron Jones ($17,100), Kenny Golladay ($19,500), Matthew Stafford (14,400).

NFL DFS Flex:

(Whoever you do not use in Captain is also great in the flex): Jamaal Williams ($5,200), Jimmy Graham ($7,000), Marvin Jones Jr. ($6,800), Geronimo Allison ($6,400), T.J. Hockenson ($5400) Matt Prater (3,600), Mason Crosby ($3,800), Punt: Marcedes Lewis ($600)

NFL DFS: FanDuel Approach

NFL DFS MVP:

Matthew Stafford ($15,000), Aaron Rodgers (15,500), Kenny Golladay (12,500), Kerryon Johnson ($12,000)

NFL DFS Flex:

Aaron Jones ($14,000), TJ Hockenson (8,000), Jimmy Graham ($8,000), Jamaal Williams ($7,000), Marvin Jones Jr. ($10,000) Geronimo Allison ($8,000) Punt: Mercedes Lewis ($5,500).

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

10/1 Podcast: Week 5 QB Picks and Waiver Wire

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The 10/1 Podcast features Brandon C. Williams and Antonio D’Arcangelis looking back at an odd Week 4 of quarterback play and an early outlook on Week 5. The two also discuss the names to grab on the waiver wire.

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Fantasy Football Podcast: Why Jameis Winston is a Cash Game Play and why its time to bail on Dak Prescott

The 10/1 Podcast answers what does Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers have in common that could hurt their DFS totals? Is Week 5 an opportunity to go all-in on lesser passers like Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph?

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Five Checkdown (DraftKings)

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week Four was another great week for NFL DFS Cash Games at Win Daily Sports. Feel free to review last week’s Checkdown to see what players we were high on, including the top scoring Running Back, Nick Chubb… at extremely low ownership! Let’s get right back to it for the Week Five Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

I wanted to start something new this week to quickly point out what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Five, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I don’t anticipate there being any crazy chalky players that you have to roster in cash games this week. It’s a rather wide open slate.
Standard to what I’ve been doing the past couple of weeks, I will be paying down at the quarterback position in Week Five.
There is not a whole lot of “value” or “punt” plays at the running back spot like there have been in weeks prior. You’re going to need a top-tier running back (or two) in Week Five NFL DFS Cash Games.
Tons of great plays at the wide receiver position – I don’t think you have to focus on any one player here when building your cash lineups.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,100) – At first glance, I had no interest in including Lamar Jackson into this article due to the fact this matchup against the Steelers has an alarmingly low total of ~42 points. To me, that calls for a slow-paced, run-focused gamescript for both teams that we would usually avoid.

Lamar is the most expensive quarterback on the slate but he is also the only quarterback who is averaging 60+ rushing yards a game. Jackson always provides an excellent floor for DFS players.
Tom Brady ($6,500) – The way to beat the Washington Redskins is through the air. Brady should have a top-five fantasy performance in Week Five.
Kyler Murray ($6,300) – I’m not sure either defense can get a stop in the battle of the winless Bengals and Cardinals. Murray should be in line for his biggest fantasy performance to date in what is by far the softest matchup of his young career.
Andy Dalton ($5,700) – We will continue to pick on the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. Dalton is at home, extremely affordable, and is averaging over 40 passing attempts per game in Zac Taylor’s offense. Dalton is my favorite quarterback play for NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Five.
Chase Daniel ($4,800) – Mitch Trubisky dislocated his shoulder in Week Four and will not play in London against the Raiders next Sunday. When Daniel entered the game, he looked very in tune with this offense and may have even looked better than Trubisky this season so far. Against the Raiders, I have no problem if you want to use Daniel with this minimal price tag.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,800) – Christian McCaffrey is always cash game viable. On paper, this is his hardest matchup of the year, but he appears to be matchup proof.
Dalvin Cook ($8,400) – His usage his beyond belief. No need to talk a lot about Dalvin Cook, he should be the Vikings’ top option on offense against a weak Giants’ team.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300) – Elliott is probably going to be the highest owned running back on the slate and for good reason. Green Bay continues to get carved up by opposing running backs and this week they face the best one in the NFL. Keep in mind, Tyron Smith will miss this game, so Elliott’s production is likely going to take a bit of a hit.
David Johnson ($7,500) – David Johnson’s usage in the passing game continues to increase each week (11 targets in Week Four and 99 yards receiving) and the Cincinatti Bengals are allowing the 3rd most receptions per game to opposing running backs. At this point, David Johnson is a fantasy wide receiver who also gets carries in the red-zone. He is a very valuable fantasy asset in PPR formats like DraftKings.
Le’Veon Bell ($6,800) – Do the Jets have any other offensive weapons? The Philadelphia run defense has been very respectable but with the lack of other playmakers in New York, Le’Veon Bell should be a lock for 25+ touches in Week Five. At the price, I’m quite interested in Le’Veon Bell for cash games.
Joe Mixon ($6,100) – Excellent price. Excellent matchup. I love picking on all aspects of the Arizona Cardinals’ defense. I know on DraftKings you’ll see the scary red font showing “OPRK 8th“, but this is 100% a matchup DFS players should take advantage of. Arizona simply cannot stop the run.

My early projections are finally calling for a 20-touch game by Joe Mixon – he will feast against a defense that has given up 268 rushing yards and two scores to opposing running backs over the past two weeks.
Aaron Jones ($5,900) – Dallas has been tough against the run but they are allowing an average of over six receptions per game to opposing running backs. Assuming Jamaal Williams misses this game (due to injury in Week Four), Aaron Jones is in line for a heavy workload both running and receiving. He’s a nice value play that I don’t think many DFS players will be on this week.
Chris Thompson ($4,600) – Chris Thompson has gotten to double digit DraftKings points in every game this season and he has yet to find the end-zone. We don’t have to go crazy with any analysis of Chris Thompson here. Washington is going to be at least a 15-point underdog in Week Five against New England. The Redskins will be playing from behind for the majority (if not all) of this game and that will lead to a 60%+ offensive snap count for Thompson. He looks to be the only true “pay-down” spot at the running back position for Week Five NFL DFS Cash Games.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) – Hopkins is absolutely due for a blowup performance as he hasn’t topped 70 receiving yards since Week One. Vegas is showing a total of 49 points for this matchup against the Falcons – which is currently the highest on the board. Houston is at home and has to right the ship here against a beat-up Atlanta secondary that was just destroyed at home by Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Hopkins will get back to form in Week Five.
Chris Godwin ($6,900) – I’m not even going to touch on the career day Godwin just had against the Rams. Godwin will see Saints’ Cornerback, P.J. Williams for most of the day on Sunday and that is all you need to know. His price is high, but his matchup against Williams is ELITE.
Adam Thielen ($6,700) – May have the best matchup in the write-up against a putrid Giants’ secondary. He will see a lot of DeAndre Baker (who may be the worst corner in the NFL), but I’d rather see Thielen go back to the slot more often (where he has done the most damage throughout his career). Regardless, this is a great spot for Thielen.
Michael Thomas ($6,600) – Chris Godwin is more expensive than Michael Thomas? If you would have told me that at any time this year Godwin’s price would be higher than Thomas’, I would say that you lost your mind – Yet, here we are. With or without Drew Brees, Thomas continues to provide a high floor for DFS players and everyone is destroying the Tampa Bay secondary, so play Thomas with confidence.
Tyler Boyd ($6,500) – If we love Andy Dalton this week, we obviously love his top option in the passing game who is seeing 10+ targets on a weekly basis. Boyd should have his way with this Arizona secondary.
Allen Robinson ($5,600) – When re-watching the Bears Week Four game against the Vikings, it was clear to me that Chase Daniel trusts Allen Robinson over any other pass catcher on the team. Daniel seemed to have tunnel vision towards Allen Robinson on 75% of the routes he ran and was his first read anytime Daniel and the Bears needed to move the ball via the pass.

Robinson and Daniel should have a lot of fun together in London against a Raiders’ secondary who really struggles against top-tier wide receivers like Allen Robinson.
Courtland Sutton ($4,900) – Sutton is one of my favorite wide receivers in the NFL. He is quietly putting together a helluva season and should continue to make plays in Week Five, despite having an inept quarterback like Joe Flacco. Sutton is responsible for over a 20% target share in the Broncos’ passing attack and leads the team in air yards by a significant margin.

Courtland Sutton is an excellent route runner, he catches everything, and he happens to be leading the NFL in ~~passing yards per attempt~~ in their last three games (since Drew Brees got injured). If you have to save salary to roster more top-tier players elsewhere, I don’t think Ginn will kill your chances at crossing the pay-line, but I’d advise you to just stick with Sanu for your low-priced wideout in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz ($6,000) – He is the only tight end on the slate that is guaranteed to see 10+ targets and his price is affordable if you use some of the value options mentioned above.
Evan Engram ($5,800) – I know that most of his production is inflated by that long touchdown he had in Week Three at Tampa Bay, but Evan Engram is the best receiving option Daniel Jones has to throw to. For some reason, I think the Vikings get back on track this week and put up points at will against this Giants’ so-called defense (although I’m not confident enough to include any Vikings pass catchers in this write-up, but having said that, Diggs and Thielen are definitely in play for me this week).

If the Vikings get back into form, the Giants will be chasing points early and Gallman will get shut down. If that happens, the Giants will have to rely on Evan Engram to anchor this passing attack.
Darren Waller ($5,000) – Incredible price for the best receiver on the Raiders’ offense (sorry to those who love Tyrell Williams). It looks like the floor of 10+ points will be there week in, week out for Waller. Continue to put Waller in your DFS lineups with confidence. This is not an ideal matchup for Waller, but the price warrants him to be considered in cash builds.
Mark Andrews ($4,800) – I mentioned earlier my concerns with the anticipated gamescript for this Ravens @ Steelers game, but my Mark Andrews faith is still in tact. Lamar Jackson loves throwing his way in the red-zone and I love Andrews’ chances of getting in the end-zone yet again in Week Five.

Andrews has never played more than 55% of the offensive snaps for Baltimore, but when he is out there, he is running routes. Andrews is currently leading the Ravens is targets so we do not need to panic on the lack of snaps.
Austin Hooper ($4,500) – No one is talking about Hooper, but we have to start considering him in DFS. Offensive Coordinator, Dirk Koetter made in known prior to this season that he loves to get his tight ends involved, and that is certainly playing true so far in 2019. Hooper is coming off of two monster performances but faces a Houston defense that has been extremely stingy to opposing tight ends.
O.J. Howard ($3,900) – If you choose to punt at the tight end position, Howard would be my only recommendation, but I don’t advise it.

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots ($4,300)
Chicago Bears ($3,800)
Minnesota Vikings ($3,200)
Tennessee Titans ($3,000)
Los Angeles Chargers ($2,700)
Carolina Panthers ($2,500)

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Chase Daniel
RB: Ezekiel Elliott
RB: Le’Veon Bell
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Michael Thomas
WR: Mohamed Sanu
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Chris Thompson
DST: Tennessee Titans

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL MLB

9/27 DFS and Betting Winners: Hot Handicappers

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/27 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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9/27 Betting Winners – Capper Steve and John L.

Our Capper Steve hit 5.5 units on the underdog Eagles at +4. Check out his regular picks as a Premium Gold subscrib er, as you will get access to all of our top handicappers. Our John L. (MLB Moving Avg.) also pinpointed Geronimo Allison as a DFS play on our Thursday Podcast and nailed his prop pick in our Slack Channel.

9/27 DFS Winner: Davante Adams

Premium Gold members had access to the a ton of different content, including the Projection Models just like this. The screenshot is of the five-highest priced wide receivers on the Week 4 slate. Davante Adams somehow still provided a lot of value, even with his price tag. Adams finished with 10 receptions for 180 yards in the Thursday Night Football matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles before a toe injury ended his night early.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Adams now has the second-most receiving yards in the league, albeit with an extra game compared to the rest of the NFL. He was the beneficiary of Ronald Darby being out with an injury as he was burning the single high safety coverage all night long. Now at 94.5 yards per game and the Green Bay offense beginning to click, expect Adams to be one of the elite receivers in the league from hereon out.

9/27 DFS Winner: Aaron Rodgers

Here is a Premium Gold projections screenshot of the Top 25 quarterbacks on the Week 4 slate based on their DFS salaries. Aaron Rodgers barely cracked the Top 10 for the week and balled out against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football. He finished 34-of-53 for 422 yards with a pair of touchdowns, an interception and a lost fumble.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Rodgers has the second-most passing yards in a game this season (Pat Mahomes in Week 2) last night. The offense looks like they are beginning to click on all cylinders. Rodgers did also have good pocket protection as he was only sacked once throughout the game. Expect Rodgers to be an elite QB.

9/27 DFS Winner: Sorano Cirstea

Sorano Cirstea dominated in straight sets against Katerina Zavatska in their semi-final matchup at the Tashkent Open. This snippet is from Cash with the Flash article, available to all Premium Gold members. Cirstea will be going against the three seed Alison Van Uytvanck Saturday morning.

9/27 DFS Winner: Sean Manaea

Here is a screenshot from our MLB Cheatsheet, another perk for all our Premium Gold members. Jason was spot on with his value pitcher as Sean Manaea had his final regular season game and went against divisional-rival Seattle Mariners. He finished the day going six innings and allowing a run on four hits and five strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This game had as much playoff feeling as a Seattle game can have this season with it being Felix Hernandez’s final start there. Manaea has returned to form in his five games this season since returning from shoulder surgery. He has a 1.21 ERA in 29.2 innings with over a strikeout an inning. He seems to be who will line up to get the ball in the Wild Card game on Wednesday.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 4 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.

As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.

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Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Phillip Rivers, LAC at MIA

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.

This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. CAR

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%

Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.

3) Dak Prescott, DAL at NO (Sunday Night)

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,400)

Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.

3) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. OAK

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.

Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.

4) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.

The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.

The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Patrick Mahomes, KC at DET

DK ($7,500), FD ($8,400)

News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.

2) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.

3) Tom Brady, NE at BUF

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.

4) Jared Goff, LAR vs. TB

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.

5) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. PHI (Thursday Night)

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,700)

The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.

6) Carson Wentz, PHI at GB (Thursday Night)

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.

7) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,900)

The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.

8) Jameis Winston, TB @ LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.

Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…

9) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.

Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at BAL

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.

Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”

Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT (Monday Night)

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,100)

Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.

2) Derek Carr, OAK at IND

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,100)

Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR at HOU

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at ATL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,900)

Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.

5) Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.

6) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. CIN (Monday Night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Showdown Preview

5 years ago

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Week 1 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

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VIDEO: DraftKings Showdown Preview and Picks

I want to start off the NFL DFS article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the Million up top on both sites tonight. There is no room for mistakes with so many entires in these contests, if you think you are going to win a million dollars by playing a combo of the top eight guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will tie for first with 5,000 of your closest friends. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I am going for the whole enchilada. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys.

As far as MVP goes, I tend to want to get someone in the midrange for a few reasons. Lower ownership and someone besides the top studs are going to have to produce. I have played a lot of these NFL DFS contests (Including the Showdown Slate Championship on DraftKings last year) and I can tell you they are very difficult to predict.

Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary.

That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my expansive NFL DFS player pool below. Here are my quick thoughts on each player.

Aaron Rodgers: Obviously a fantastic QB who will have the ball in his hands the entire game. Goes against a great Bears D, but that didn’t stop him last year when he threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns against them in the season opener.

Davante Adams;: Rodgers’ WR1, target monster, elite.

Mitch Trubisky: Mediocre quarterback in comparison to Rodgers, not afraid to throw it 40 times a game. All it takes is a few good catches for touchdowns on these NFL DFS slates.

Aaron Jones: Green Bay RB1, will get rushing attempts in the teens and a few targets. Facing stout Bears rush D

Allen Robinson: Bears WR1, guaranteed targets against bad Green Bay defense

David Montgomery: Rookie RB, has impressed during camp, hearing he may be splitting work with Mike Davis. Keep an eye on the news.

Tarik Cohen: Will be change of pace back and get most of, if not all, of the air targets at RB, NFL DFS boom or bust

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Green Bay WR2A, has looked fantastic and earned Rodgers’ trust, worked out with Randy Moss all offseason. Love him.

Geronimo Allison: Green Bay WR2B, will be on the field with Rodgers all game, get some shares.

Mason Crosby: He’s the Green Bay kicker and a reliable one. If Green Bay can’t convert touchdowns against the stingy Bears D, in comes Crosby.

Trey Burton (Groin): I don’t think he plays, and if he does he shouldn’t be effective enough with a lingering groin injury. I am sure the Bears want to get this guy healthy and losing him in Week one isn’t in their long term plan.

Anthony Miller: Bears WR2, it’s not like being Green Bay’s WR2, but he will still be on the field all games vs Green Bay’s sub-par pass defense. He is capable of a big game and should see a small uptick in targets if Burton misses.

Eddy Pineiro: Bears kicker, but they arn’t impressed. He is probably going to be kicking for his job tonight.

Jimmy Graham: He is cleared to play (finger injury). Red zone target more than anything else. If he catches a TD, he pays off, but he is the Packers’ fourth best option in the passing game.

Jamaal Williams: RB nursing a hamstring isn’t good, but he says he is fine and is going to play. He will get on the field some. More of a passing threat out of the backfield than anything. Aaron Jones is the Redzone guy so I wouldn’t expect him to vulture any TDs

Taylor Gabriel: Big Play WR threat for the Bears, cheap NFL DFS price, pretty much what you look for on these slates

Mike Davis: Came over from Seattle with intention to play more but the Bears drafted Montgomery. I am hearing Davis may be splitting carries with Montgomery. Keep an eye on the news dropping closer to game time. If he is going to get a handful of carries he is a fantastic NFL DFS play at the price.

Cordarrelle Patterson: Another big play receiver on the Bears. Patterson just needs a little room and he is in the endzone. He shouldn’t get the lion’s share of the targets by any means but he will get something. He is also a guy you design plays for out of the backfield

Adam Shaheen: He is your top Bears TE if Burton misses. Will get a few targets

Jake Kumerow: Fan favorite Packers receiver from the University of Wisconsin. With St. Brown on the IR, it opens up time for Kumerow

Riley Ridley: Rookie Bears WR, stud in college, hard to know what to expect but should get on the field. Had a solid camp and preseason.

Kerrith Whyte: 7^thround RB draft pick for Bears, might not see field. Pass.

Ben Braunecker: TE2 if Burton misses, he has only been targeted 13 times in his three years in the NFL.

OUT DONT PLAY Wims: Bears wide receiver but not a priority to get the ball to, he is listed behind Anthony Miller. Sub 1% absolute dart that could give you zero very easily

Robert Tonyan: Packers TE2. He had six targets last year and only one touchdown.

Trevor Davis: Green Bay WR4. Had a nice preseason outing grabbing six targets for 78 yards and a touchdown, however, he won’t see the field much, if any

Marcedes Lewis: Green Bay TE3, played four games last year. Was targeted four times.

CUT. DON’T PLAY Allen Lazard:

Dexter Williams: Packers RB3. Only a madman would play him.

The NFL DFS Picks

MVP: Davante Adams ($14,500 FD), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000 FD) One of them is getting in the end zone or they Packers don’t have a chance to win this game. If the Packers are losing late, you can expect Rodgers to take over and pepper the hell to both of the guys as they march down the field. Adams will have the larger role but is more expensive. If you can fit Adams, he is the safest. Use MVS if you need salary.

NFL DFS Safe Flex Options: (listed in order of preference)

Aaron Rodgers ($15,000 FD): I really don’t see a path where he isn’t on the winning team. If the Packers are getting blown out he will pass the ball 40 times, if they are winning it because Rodgers got them to the endzone. Gotta do your best to get him in
Mitchell Tribusky ($13,500 FD): Green Bay pass D is not good. Trubisky has capable receivers in Miller, Robinson, Gabriel and Cohen.
Aaron Jones ($13,000 FD): Will get the majority of the Packers rushing opportunities, I just have a feeling he is going to struggle vs this defense. If he gets in the box, he should be fine. Getting in the box isn’t going to be easy though.
Allen Robinson ($12,500 FD): Bears WR1 vs Green Bay D
David Montgomery ($12,500 FD): Bears are high on him, Packers rush D is suspect. Should get redzone work and will be the primary back. I can see a lot of running the ball here to try and keep Rodgers off the field. My only hesitation is I am hearing some rumblings or Mike Davis getting significant work here.
Tarik Cohen ($12,000 FD): Boom or Bust candidate out of the backfield. Will get a handful of carries and be targeted almost as much as the Bears top receivers.
Geronimo Allison ($9,500 FD): Will have just as much opportunity a MVS and is slightly cheaper
Anthony Miller ($9,000 FD): Starting WR for Bears vs bad Green Bay D

NFL DFS Milli Maker Plays (listed in order of preference)

Taylor Gabriel ($8,000 FD): Starting WR with speed. Not typically targeted as heavily but if he gets in open space he gets in the endzone
Eddie Pinerio ($8,500 FD): Game script play, I think the Bears win here, which means Pinerio is going to need to make a few kicks. He went 8-9 in the preseason
Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,000 FD): Hoping for a few designed plays for him to get in open space
Mason Crosby ($9,500 FD)

VERY HIGH RISK

Mike Davis ($7,500 FD): Give me 35 yards and vulture a TD
Adam Shaheen ($5,000 FD): Possible starting TE for Bears, watch for Burton news
Jake Kumerow ($5,000 FD): Fan favorite, will need to convert one of his very few targets, if any, into a big play
Riley Ridley ($5,000 FD): He is good. Will they play him? I hope so. I will throw a dart

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Aaron Rodgers featured image via Chad Davis

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

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Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500)

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200)

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000)

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600)

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700)

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200)

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400)

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400)

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900)

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700)

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600)

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

5 years ago 0 comment

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