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Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 8 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Derrick Henry gets his own spot at the top every week because he is in a class all his own. He will always carry ownership but he has a week in, week out ceiling that is unrivaled in fantasy football. If you can fit him and want to play him I will not talk you off of it. Henry is under 10% this week so he is extremely viable in GPP’s. All Hail the King!
As of Friday the following Browns defensive players are out or limited and could be out: Richard LeCounte III (safety), Denzel Ward, (cornerback), Jadeveon Clowney (defensive end), A.J. Green (cornerback), Malik Jackson (defensive tackle), Takkarist McKinley (defensive end). Because of that, the little red 4 next to Najee’s name on DraftKings causes me zero concern. Ignoring that Broncos game where Fangio decided to run his backs a total of 12 times even then Javonte Williams caught 6 passes for 32 yards and a TD) the Browns have been shredded by opposing running backs. Austin Ekeler had 5 catches, 119 total yards and 3 TD’s and the combination of James Connor and Chase Edmonds had 20 for 117 yards and caught 4 of 5 targets. Najee Harris is the league leader in offensive snaps per game for RB’s (57.2), Targets per game (7.7), second in catches (34), and third in FPPG (20.2). The depleted Browns defense is a spot that I am looking to target in some of my GPP builds as his 8% projected ownership is far too low for the floor/ceiling combination that he provides.
I know I know, we do not typically recommend “non pass catching” running backs outside of King Henry on DraftKings but the only reason Damien didn’t continue his dominating performance (14 carries for 106 yards and two TD’s and two catches for seven yards) is because the Patriots beat the Jets so badly he barely saw the field in the second quarter. It is unlikely that this week will be a repeat and the Charger have the worst group of interior run stoppers in the NFL and it isn’t particularly close. In a game with a projected 51.4 total and a relatively close 4.5 point spread Harris should be in line for a workload north of 20 touches. That being said, this is still a Bill Belichick run offense and we all know that he hates your fantasy team so use discretion. Nothing worse than going all in on a player that can be limited due to coaching decisions.
I really do not believe that this ownership data is correct here. If Nick Chubb is under 8% Sunday with no Kareem Hunt it is officially time to call him the most disrespected player in fantasy sports. Yes, I know it is the Steelers, no I do not care. He is healthy and he should get the lion’s share of the work on that offense without multiple weapons on the Browns right now. He is still one of the premier talents in the NFL at running back and is averaging almost six yards per carry.
Also Consider: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson
I know that last week we found ourselves in a bit of a letdown spot where the Lions played with reckless abandon last week and actually took the lead in the first have and kept the ball out of the hands of the Ram’s for almost the entire first quarter despite being almost 20 point dogs. But in DFS you have to keep a short memory when it comes to outliers. Henderson finds himself in another fantastic spot as the Rams are 16.5 point favorites against a Texans team who is at the bottom of the league in run defense despite changing to a 4-3 under defensive coordinator Lovie Smith. Hendo is also sitting as the highest projected owned running back at anywhere between 20-25% and probably closer to 35%+ in cash contests if I were to read the tea leaves a little. Fading any player at that ownership is a dangerous proposition when you are building cash lineups.
Swift is far too cheap for a game-script proof running back and it looks like everyone agrees as he is projected as our 2nd highest rostered running back on the slate. Nobody in the league has caught more passes out of the backfield and Jared Goff’s inability to get beyond two reads has been a huge benefit to his receiving value. The Lions have been forced to design short passing routes out of the backfield specifically for Swift due to their limitations at quarterback and we saw them lean into this last week against the Rams where he saw 10 targets and saw his best yards per catch number (12 YPC) on the year. Another thing I love is that over the last few weeks is his carry numbers have been very steady at 13 carries over the last two and double digits in all three. He is popular but he is safe, and safe is what we want for cash games.
It took a couple of weeks but the coaching staff for the Jags realized that their offense should start with the running game and build outward. Since week three when they figured that out, James Robinson has scored no less that 19.1 fantasy points on DraftKings and there is no reason that should change against a helpless Seahawks team who struggles defensively on the best of days and is now getting no time to rest with Geno Smith at the helm. Volume+skill+good matchup=Fantasy Gold.
Also Consider: Kenneth Gainwell, Chuba Hubbard
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 8 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.31. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Bye weeks are here ladies and gentlemen! Week 7 is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. When you have time, be sure to check out Stix’s GPP Play article, as he will provide his own insights on some of the plays below and will likely have some guys that I didn’t even consider. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
Cash running backs are about as straight forward as it gets for me this week. We have a few prime matchups that are where I think you should start your cash builds. With so many bye weeks your core of running backs should not vary all that much, just stick with the obvious plays and make your adjustments with wide receivers. Gpp’s we have a few pivots in pretty good spots but as you already know, this is a rough week so tread lightly.
Matt LaFleur is so frustrating when it comes to how he utilizes his running backs but this is a fantastic position for Aaron Jones and we get to roster him at less than 6%. This is impossible to ignore in a week where there are so many injuries and bye weeks. Washington’s defense has been a huge letdown this season being dead last in points per game allowed (31.0) and bottom seven in nearly every defensive statistical category. The question is not whether or not Jones can produce, the question is will Matt LaFleur just go with what works or will he try to be the “smartest coach on the field” as we have seen the snap share go from 70-30 in the first two weeks to 60-40 in two of the last three weeks.
Last week the Ravens looked as if they got a little bit of their mojo back defensively but I am willing to chalk that up as the Chargers being historically bad when it comes to traveling to the east coast. On a re-watch of that game, I did not see anything from Baltimore that made me think they have turned the corner so until I see it with any consistency, targeting pass-catching backs against the Ravens is still a preferred play for me. Mixon was used heavily in that role against the Packers last week, bringing in five of six targets for 59 yards and a TD to go along with 18 carries while still being less than 100%. Mixon’s volume is second only behind Derrick Henry on the season, facing the 28th ranked DVOA when it comes to pass-catching backs, and is going completely ignored being projected between 5-7% rostered on the day making this an elite target for GPP’s on the day.
With everyone gravitating towards Chase Edmonds in what should be a prime spot against the basement dwelling Texans, James Connor saw a 55% snap share compared to Edmonds last week, has a higher rushing prop, and has the best odds to score (-140) of the game. With the Cardinals being an obscene 18.5 point favorite Connor should see his largest workload by far this week and he is being projected under 4% on the slate.
Also Consider: Antonio Gibson (sub 4%, monitor the injury news), JD McKissic (sub 3%, DK only),
I feel like I am copying and pasting this every week but Henry finds himself in another smash spot against a team that is susceptible against the run. You will here me, Ghost, and Stix talk about Henry ad nauseum this week and every week going forward so I will not waste your time repeating the same thing. Fade him at your own peril. All hail the King.
When this season started there were workload concerns and whether or not Henderson could handle the burden of being a number one. After 6 weeks of action, we have a large enough sample to say clearly that he can handle the role. Henderson has had no less than 16 touches in all five of the games he has played and scored no less than 15.7 DK points to date. Now he gets to face the 7th worst defense in terms of DVOA against running backs on the ground and the worst by a wide margin through the air. Oh yeah, and for added benefit, Stafford will be going into this game wanting to beat the breaks off of the Lions. The fans in Detroit spent the last decade blaming their poor performance on Stafford and he is going to go out of his way to rub it in. This is likely going to get out of hand in a hurry and Henderson will have plenty of time to run it down their throat in the second half of the game.
With CMC suddenly finding his way to the IR last week (NFL needs to get a handle on coaches withholding information but that’s another story) this is Chuba’s backfield until further notice and boy does he get a nice week seven opponent in the New York Giants. With a 65% snap share in each of the last two weeks and 16 carries to go along with 3 targets even in a negative game script last week he presents a solid floor at 6.1k with a 95.5 total yards prop and the best odds to score in the game.
Also Consider: Darrel Williams, Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift
It is time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our WDS: Week 7 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 10.24. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.
Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.
Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.
Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.
Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!
We are here ladies and gentlemen! Week one is upon us and we have loads of content coming out over the next few days to help you take down your GPP’s and cash in your 50/50’s and Double-Ups. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the first kick. And check out Adam’s fantastic Game by Game breakdown for week 1. I will not waste a ton of your time here as I know what you are here for so enjoy the WDS: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12
I am going to put this at the top of my articles until the status quo changes. If you want to play Christian McCaffrey and can afford him, go for it. His floor/ceiling combination is unmatched from week to week. This just saves me a few minutes for every Running Back DFS Breakdown just stating the obvious.
***Note to all new players: Any players that may list in cash are viable options for GPP play. Just understand that Cash plays are likely to have higher ownership.***
While much of the attention will go to running backs like Dalvin Cook (17.64% Ownership), Christian McCaffrey (22.21% Ownership), and Alvin Kamara (24.12% Ownership) there is a certain rushing title winner who is projected under 8% ownership. While everyone is concerned with the coaching changes for the Titans and the little red 10 next to Arizona’s ranking we find a prime GPP pivot to take advantage of. The Cardinals are 10th worst in rushing 1st downs allowed (118), 7th worst in YPC (4.6), and 11th worst in 1st Down % (27.1). Now, throw in the 3rd fastest pace, aggressive blitz tendencies, and that the Cardinals spend more time in nickel packages than any other team (4-2-5 base, cover one) and we can begin to see how a beast like Henry can break this GPP slate wide open.
All I needed was to see him in the final preseason game for a few snaps just to make sure his knee was ok and I knew he would end up somewhere in my article in week one. The Lions are a mess and the Niners are one of the most prolific rushing franchises over the last several seasons. Trey Sermon is going to get plenty of work, that much is certain, but Mostert does not need 18-20 carries to smash value. Week one last season, Mostert, on 15 carries only had 56 yards rushing but caught four passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. The man is a Lamborghini. Sure, something will almost certainly happen that sidelines him at some point, but while he is healthy you should have him sprinkled into your GPP builds. Especially when they are expected to get ahead against weak run defenses.
I do not know why his ownership is so low. Atlanta’s defensive personnel can not keep up with this dynamic playmaker, at least not yet. I think people remember the last couple of seasons where the previous coaching regime would rotate backs with no rhyme or reason. Take a breath folks, Nick Sirianni is coming from Indy and he does not share that thought process. Miles will get more reps this year in both carries and targets in 2021 if Sanders stays healthy this should be a career year in terms of volume and production. Dean Pees (ATL Defensive Coordinator) loves, loves, loves blitzing from the secondary, and if Hurts sees that, Miles Sanders can be wide open on those blitz packages and running to daylight. Trust me here folks. Get a couple of shares of him in your GPP’s this week and you will be glad that you did.
Also Consider: Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Chase Edmonds
Pricing for both Draftkings and FanDuel came out around a month ago and even at that time I was eyeing Robinson as a potential GPP play. Etienne is a different kind of back and J-Rob, at least for week one, was always fairly safe. Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball thanks to the Bill O’Brien era and my early script included a heavy dose of running the clock down into the second half. That has not changed since pricing came out, and now we have no Etienne to compete with for workload. Robinson averaged 17.8 carries and 4.3 targets per game in 2020. This year the Jags have a better O-Line, more WR depth, and their franchise QB who already looks like he belongs, so defenses can no longer cheat to stop the run game. Robinson should have a field day in week one with no real competition for touches and targets against arguably the worst franchise in the NFL.
If the Vikings do not get behind early there is one thing that you can be assured of. Dalvin Cook will carry the ball 20+ times and see anywhere from 3-5 Targets in the passing game. I think the Bengals will be improved this season but Burrow will likely be rusty in the early going and the offensive line will take some time to gel. That means stalled drives and a game script where Dal can feast. The Bengals year in and year out have a defense that gets holes ripped through it on the ground and in 2020 they were second worst, giving up 5.1 yards per carry for almost 2,400 yards (fourth-worst). With no Irv Smith and Kyle Rudolph out of the picture, Cook’s already league-leading red zone rush attempts (68 attempts for 13 TD’s) will almost certainly increase and it will be immediate.
The Chargers traveling to the east coast is bad, playing that game at 1:00 PM EST/10:00 AM PST is even worse, and in my opinion not getting any of your starter’s reps in the preseason is a strike three. I fully expect the Chargers to play a flat game against last season’s DROY Chase Young and the rest of that tough Washington defense. Staley’s defensive scheme for LAC (at least up front) is to have three down linemen tight to the formation forcing the ball handler to go outside. That spells disaster as Antonio Gibson is incredibly quick outside of the tackles and was regularly used in off-tackle runs as well as screenplays in 2020. A quick note on Gibson, he played almost half of the season with a foot injury and he has already told us that he was 100% good now.
Also Consider: Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in in 2021 and beyond and our Win Daily Sports: Week 1 NFL Running Back DFS Breakdown 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the Running Back DFS Breakdown, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.
Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.
Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.
GPP – Davante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.
Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.
Cash – Drew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.
GPP – Alvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.
Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.
Cash – Tom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.
GPP – Ronald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.
Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.
Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.
GPP – Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.
Punt – Van Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.
Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf
GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson
Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 9 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Let’s start with a snapshot of the top options at captain on DK:
Wow. That’s a lot of red — but at least we don’t see any injury notes next to the top two options: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. Rodgers is actually cheaper than Adams but my guess is that he’ll end up being the chalk in the top spot. We’ll know a little bit closer to lock if that’s the case.
Aaron Jones is still nursing a calf injury and is listed as questionable – he’ll be a game-time decision and his absence would force the Packers to start someone a relative unknown, be that DK minimum-price Tyler Ervin (who has logged the most field time of the available Green Bay RBs this season with four carries for 43 rushing yards and 6-33-0 on nine receiving targets) or 2019 sixth-round pick Dexter Williams, who’s minimum price (DK $300, FD $5,000) on both sites.
Jones has played injured before, and he’s even been effective – so as of writing this I’m expecting him to suit up. After Adams, we could see lots of targets for TE Robert Tonyan, WR Allen Lazard (if he comes off IR before the game and is activated), and even the likes of Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown.
On the 49ers side, things are looking even more bleak, with all the team’s high-profile fantasy starters missing tonight’s contest – including QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle, IR), TE George Kittle (broken foot, IR), RBs Raheem Mostert (ankle, IR), Tevin Coleman (knee, out) and Jeff Wilson (ankle, IR), as well a triumvirate of WRs in the speedy Deebo Samuel (COVID-19), rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk (COVID-19), and red-zone target Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19). Dante Pettis (shoulder) got cut this week and promptly signed with the Giants.
We’re left with backup QB Nick Mullens, quick-twitch RB Jerick McKinnon, rookie RB JaMycal Hasty, TEs Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley, and these WRs: Trent Taylor, Richie James (questionable with an ankle injury) and practice squad bodies River Cracraft (not joking) and Kevin White, who was once a highly regarded WR prospect for the Bears.
I expect to see a lot of two-TE sets and formations with both McKinnon (lined up as a WR) and Hasty. This is madness, but we can embrace it and use it to our advantage in this showdown.
There will be no trouble fitting the top few performers from both teams if we punt CPT on DK, but even with Rodgers or Adams at 1.5x we can likely get Ervin or Dexter Williams and another Packers pass catcher in there alongside the SF pieces we like.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to play minimum salary guys tonight. There are several who could have a huge impact on this game.
DO: Stay tuned to the inactives and make the necessary pivots. There may be a few builds that we don’t need to tinker with once we know the status of Aaron Jones, but I’m sure there will be relevant breaking news as we approach 8 p.m.
DON’T: Forget about defenses and kickers. Mistakes could abound in this game, and while we’ve seen some poor play from the Packers DST, they and the 49ers DST could be worth a look.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Note: Injuries could also force us to consider Packers WR Malik Taylor (if Lazard is still out), Kevin White (if James is inactive) and 84-year-old Paul Hornung (joking).
Good luck!
To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time to rock and roll. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.
In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.
Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.
NFL DFS GPP FADES:
Jonathan Taylor
Jordan Reed (unless you have to use him for your core build)
Russell Gage
Ronald Jones
Corey Davis
General GPP Notes:
Ownership seems rather spread out this week. Everyone is going to stack DAL/ATL and for good reason. All of the players in the cash game article are in play for GPPs as well. Here are some ways that I’ll be getting different. Hard to not go 100% on Derrick Henry.
Good luck to all!
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We’ve got your NFL Week 16 DFS plays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picks to win your GPPs!
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DK ($10,100) FD ($10,800)
McCaffrey resumes top dog cash game play of the week after a minorbobble of the crown in weeks 13 and 14. He posted his fourth-highest pointstotal of the season in Week 15 and is once again in a smash spot against astruggling Indy defense.
DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)
Carson doesn’t have much competition for touches anymoreand remains a fire-breathing, yard-churning monster the Seattle backfield. Thematchup here checks all the boxes for favorable, including opponent, probable gamescript and home field, He had 133 rushing yards and two scores in Week 15, andthere’s nothing to prevent him form a similar stat line facing the Cards rundefense.
Also consider:Joe Mixon, Devonta Freeman
DK ($6,800) FD ($7,600)
I expect the Ravens to avenge the loss the Browns handed them earlier this season with heavy doses of Mark Ingram, who only had 12 cries and one catch in Week 4. Ingram cost $6,600 then and sputtered to just 9.1 DK points, but I’m expecting production twice that this week, as he should handle a few more red-zone touches and be part of the formula to put the game out of reach, The Browns defense is also pretty beat up.
DK ($8,300) FD ($8,800)
Barkley’s price has come up, but it’s not outrageous yet – and Washingtonhasn’t had the pleasure of trying to stop Mr. Barkley yet this season. TheGiants were committed to getting him the ball in Week 15, and he responded with112 rushing yards and two scores (to go along with 5-31-0 receiving) and we canexpect positive results again this week. He’s fine for cash or GPP.
Also consider: Marlon Mack, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara
DK ($7,900) FD ($8,700)
Elliott gashed the Eagles defense for 111 rushing yards and a score in Week 7 and now faces them in a game that likely decides who wins the NFC East and sends the winner to the playoffs. Although the Eagles defense is usually more vulnerable to the passing game, even Jason Garrett can’t screw this up by eliminating the Zeke factor. It’s not a perfect spot for Zeke, but that’s usually when he surprises you with a monster game by catching a few extra passes and mixing in some big plays.
DK ($6,100) FD (6,800)
Once again, we have a week where nobody is talking about Austin Ekeler, despite a favorable matchup against a division rival that could keep the game close. Last week, Ekeler still managed 10 fantasy points despite low usage and I’m betting he can thump the Raiders with a couple of game-breaking runs or catches. Ekeler’s Kamara-light skillset gives you a huge discount and about the same upside.
Also consider: Aaron Jones, Kenyan Drake
DK ($5,600) FD ($7,000)
If it’s not Ekeler, it’ll be Gordon, who’s actually cheaper on DraftKings because of the PPR factor. Melvin stands to get a few extra goal-line/red zone carries this week and the Chargers, in general, should be in a good spot to score a few extra points facing a battered Raiders defensive unit. I’m less interested in FanDuel but his price on DK is a bargain.
DK ($4,900) FD ($4,500)
Johnson just got activated, so this isn’t aplay for the faint of heart. But the Lions RB has been practicing the past fewweeks and hasn’t experienced any setbacks, and he regularly occupied the 10-20 fantasypoint range when he was healthy. You’re getting low ownership and a solid price(minimum on FD) on a back who could be in for a workhorse role in Week 16.
Additional plays: Phillip Lindsay, Patrick Laird, Dion Lewis (if Derrick Henry sits)
Goal 48.5, Prize: 2x
This game should feature plenty of offense and both RBs should be in your MKF bets for this one, so pair Joe Mixon and Patrick Laird with DeVante Parker.
We’ve got your NFL Week 15 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto win you some major green in huge GPPs!
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DK ($7,500) FD ($7,400)
Normally, lock-n-load cash game RB plays are either expensiveor really cheap, but we’ve got an excellent value play in Carson that’s prettysafe and won’t cost you too much on either site. With Rashad Penny done for theyear, Carson will get elite volume in a smash spot – making this a prime opportunityto eat the chalk and move on with the rest of your lineup.
DK ($7,600) FD ($7,700)
Last week I reiterated that Fournette is a weekly lock for 20+touches, and now he’s seen a total of 29 targets over the past three weeks. He’sfacing an Oakland defense that’s been especially vulnerable to rushing TDs overthe past few weeks and there’s no game script that kills this guy’sinvolvement. His floor is still a robust 12-15 DK points and he’s got 25-30-pointupside on both sites.
Also consider:Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry (questionable)
DK ($10,000) FD ($10,400)
McCaffrey got back over 20 DK points last week but faces a toughSeattle defense that’s among the top 10 in the league against the run. He’sstill priced at $10K or more on both sites so I’ll be avoiding him in cashgames – putting him on the radar in GPPs where we could get an elite player ina tougher matchup with low ownership.
DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)
We’ve lost some of the 20+ upsides that Cook showed us early in the season, but this is a great chance for him to get right and bust out with a big game. Cook said he came out of Week 14 feeling “healthy,” which was a concern because of the chest injury. He’s now scored TDs in four straight and should be a focal point of the offense with a 25-point upside facing the Chargers.
DK ($7,700) FD ($8,300)
Barkley represents decent GPP value on the main slate in awinnable matchup. If he can’t break out for a big day against the Dolphins, I’mafraid he’s just not what we’ve been hoping he’d be for this Giants offense. He’shad just three games with 20+ DK points this year and just two 100-yard rushinggames, but Week 15 is his best matchup of the season.
Also consider: Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert
DK ($7,300) FD ($7,800)
Jonesexploited a weak Redskins run defense to compilea season-high rushing yardage total last week, rushing 16 times for 134and a TD, adding 6-58-0 on seven targets in the passing game. He’ll be a focalpoint of the Packers offense this week against the Bears as well, and he’s gotmassive upside despite what I would hope would be lower ownership in a “red”matchup.
DK ($6,700) FD ($7,200)
I included him in this space last week and he went nuts, rushing forover 100 yards and adding 5-112-1 receiving for 37.3 DK points! I really thinkthat Ekeler is matchup-proof and needs to be included in GPPs at his pricepoint, regardless of the presence of Melvin Gordon. IF anything, he could see afew more targets this week against a decent Vikings run defense.
Also consider: Ezekiel Elliott, Joe Mixon
DK ($5,600) FD ($6,400)
I don’t see a scenario where Lindsay doesn’t get a lot of touchesfacing the Chiefs, so he’s a viable option in GPPs and even some cash games inWeek 15. It’s been a while since he’s had a GPP-winning breakout (Week 5 atLAC), but this is a spot where I’m comfortable buying shares of him and gettingahead of the field at 25-30 percent personal ownership.
DK ($5,400) FD ($6,800)
The price has come up since his big Week 13 performance (and he’sa tough fit on FD at $6,800), but White looks like he could have some scoringupside this week against a bad Bengals defense. It’s possible Belichick dialsdown into a running game heavier on Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead, but White hasmaintained enough involvement (aside from the Dallas game) to warrant considerationin GPPs on DK.
DK ($4,500) FD ($5,500)
Laird is not a stud running back who’s probablygoing to get you 25+ this week, but he’s really the only guy the Dolphins trustright now and he’s in a decent matchup. He rushed for 48 yards on 15carries against the Jets last week and hauled in 4-38-0 on five targets. TheGiants are similarly putrid in their defensive depth and could see Laird notch75 plus total yards and a score – making him a decent value play in allformats.
Additional plays: David Montgomery, LeSean McCoy, Miles Sanders, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis (if Henry inactive or limited)
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Goal: 48.5, Prize: 2x
Lets go with what could be some heavy volume for a couple of RBs in good spots in this Week 15 game with Phillip Lindsay and LeSean McCoy, adding Tyreek Hill to the mix. These guys should easily total 48.5 fantasy points barring an injury to one of them.
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