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9/23 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

This five-game 9/23 MLB DFS slate is a rather odd duck. Besides the simple fact we have a small player pool to choose from, we also have several matchups that for DFS purposes are a complete fade. The key tonight is going to be variance. Even in cash games the cash line between first place and last place, more-than-likely will be small. So, do not be afraid to take chances.

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On the Defense

PatrickCorbin vs. Philadelphia Phillies

$10,500 FD / $11,800 DK

Warning! The Philadelphia Phillies are a lot less dangerous than they appear in the mirror. Especially facing Patrick Corbin on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The Phillies are striking out 23.1 percent of the time versus LHPs with a middle of the pack .329 wOBA. Despite the fact Corbin has had two sub-par starts this year facing Philadelphia they were both on the road. His home ERA is 2.00 versus his 4.18 ERA while traveling. Corbin has the highest upside on the slate by far, and with no Coors Field game, and limited high-priced bats to spend up on, he is at the top of the hill.

BlakeSnell vs. Boston Red Sox

$7,500 FD / $10,300 DK

The algorithm on FD tonight seems to have hit the mark pricing wise with Snell set to pitch only three or four innings on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate. The thing is, if Snell goes four innings allowing one earned run while striking out six, that is a pretty good day in DFS. Especially on this slate, just keep in mind he will not be getting any kind of site bonuses tonight.

Snell has huge K upside while generally being able to keep batters under control. In his only start versus the mighty Red Sox he went six innings with seven strikeouts allowing one earned run. With Boston winding down their season, and the Rays in a dogfight for the Wild Card, I would take a shot here on FD.

ZackEflin vs. Washington Nationals

$8,200 FD / $6,200 DK

It’s a small 9/23 MLB DFS slate which means chances must be taken. Eflin this season facing Washington has a 1.50 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 18 innings. His price on DK is bottom low which makes no sense considering he has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last five starts. This makes for a fine GPP play on FD, and a great pitcher to pair with Corbin on DK, despite facing each other.

NameTeamIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Patrick CorbinNationals191.210.523.010.9948.90%13.00%3.13.61
Blake SnellRays10312.233.061.2240.20%16.30%4.193.21
Zach EflinPhillies150.27.232.511.4344.70%15.10%44.67

On theAttack

MikeShawaryn vs. Tampa Bay Rays

With the Red Sox playing at this point just to finish the season, Shawaryn could get stretched out an extra inning or two. His history suggests he will come in tonight, give up a bunch of runs right away, and be pulled. Why pull him now? The Rays offense is going to feast tonight facing a Red Sox team basically just giving guys innings. Stack away on this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Tampa BayRays vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+
Austin Meadows40010.80%19.00%0.57100.3830.5750.9580.2790.393151
Brandon Lowe2468.50%28.90%0.350.3580.5480.9060.2650.376139
Willy Adames3778.80%24.90%0.3530.3640.4680.8320.1710.353124
Ji-Man Choi38413.50%22.40%0.620.3670.4520.8190.190.347120
Eric Sogard3228.40%12.70%0.6660.3560.4380.7950.1440.338112
Avisail Garcia3425.00%24.30%0.2100.3330.4590.7920.1710.333110
Tommy Pham4379.60%18.80%0.51150.330.4410.7710.190.327106
Jesus Aguilar21711.50%21.20%0.5400.3330.4180.7520.1740.3296
Yandy Diaz2279.30%15.40%0.610.3170.4280.7450.1790.31498
Nathaniel Lowe1316.90%29.00%0.2400.3130.4290.7420.1680.31397
Joey Wendle1924.70%15.10%0.3170.3180.3870.7050.1270.30290
Travis d’Arnaud2288.30%21.90%0.3800.3030.3680.670.1320.28981
Kevin Kiermaier3425.80%20.80%0.28140.2570.390.6470.1890.2768
Daniel Robertson13610.30%23.50%0.4410.2870.2710.5580.0930.25557
Mike Zunino1835.50%33.90%0.1600.2350.3650.60.1880.25457
Guillermo Heredia1039.70%29.10%0.3320.2670.2440.5120.0930.23746

AdamWainwright vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Before you read any further you need to understand the Cardinals are playing at another level right now, and their pitching is no exception. Wainwright has been lights out lately both at home, and on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are also 26th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs. Everything looks to be in order tonight for Adam basically facing Eve. Or is it? If I had a nickel for every time I jumped on a pitcher with a tendency to be horrible on the road, who suddenly is Nolan Ryan, I would have a whole lot of nickels over the last seven years. On a five-game slate, with no one looking here, I am going to take some chances in GPP play on a Wainwright regression for this 9/23 MLB DFS slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSwOBAwRC+
Abraham Almonte2711.10%25.90%0.4300.4070.6671.0740.437171
Ketel Marte45410.10%14.10%0.7280.3960.5770.9730.404150
Christian Walker4118.80%26.80%0.3370.3360.480.8150.341108
Kevin Cron535.70%35.80%0.1600.2640.5710.8360.337106
Eduardo Escobar4788.40%19.00%0.4440.3180.5020.820.336106
Alex Avila15819.60%34.20%0.5710.3670.4490.8160.336105
Wilmer Flores1656.70%10.30%0.6500.3520.3670.7180.31491
Adam Jones3455.20%19.40%0.2720.3140.4180.7320.31189
Tim Locastro1424.90%15.50%0.32150.3620.3080.670.30786
Carson Kelly25112.00%21.50%0.5600.3030.4160.7180.29881
Nick Ahmed4448.10%19.10%0.4270.30.3970.6970.29478
Jarrod Dyson38210.70%18.10%0.59290.3070.3260.6330.2869
Jake Lamb18313.70%23.50%0.5810.3110.2890.6010.27264
Josh Rojas1009.00%24.00%0.3820.280.30.580.25854
Ildemaro Vargas1505.30%14.00%0.3810.2730.3030.5760.25150
Caleb Joseph293.40%20.70%0.1700.2140.2310.4450.19916

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Patrick Corbin has had eight strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts. With the Phillies striking out so heavily versus RHPs, the over is the path here.

Zach Eflin has had great success facing Washington this season easily surpassing 3.5 strikeouts in each start. Why should this change tonight? Over.

Despite Adam Wainwright’s recent success I smell serious regression here tonight. Over his last six starts he only has more than four strikeouts one time. The under is where I am looking on this one.

Although the Cardinals are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus RHPs, the pitcher in question has a lot of four strikeout games. Facing a hot Cardinals team the under is the answer.

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