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Whit Merrifield

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/04/2021

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the first Sunday of the 2021 baseball season. For those celebrating Easter, Happy Easter! For those celebrating Passover, we made it!

The focus today will be on Fanduel’s main slate which cuts off right before the Dodgers/Rockies game. So yes, we have a non Coors main slate to look forward to.

Today’s slate is void of aces. In looking at pitching, there’s no definitive path to success. There are a couple of pitchers that are ‘pretty good’, but not entirely safe. Then there are pitchers that are going to be high risk/high reward. I’m going high risk/high reward today. I’m feeling frisky!

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The ‘Aces’

The first pitcher I’m looking at today comes with some risk. Ian Anderson ($9k) faces off against a tough Phillies lineup. Anderson pitched to a 1.95 ERA last year which was a run and a half better than his xFIP. Although a 3.45 xFIP is good, you can’t expect to Anderson to perform as well as he did last year. He did have a k/9 of 11.41, which of all the pitchers going today would rank numero uno. 3 factors have me leaning towards Anderson. a 52.5% GB rate, a 27.5% FB rate, and a 25.90% hard hit rate last year. Those numbers combined can help and did help him limit damage. Not the safest play, but I am a fan.

The next pitcher I’m looking at is Michael Pineda ($7.3K). You know exactly what you’re getting with Pineda at this point in his career. Someone that’s going to limit damage, but not rack up a bunch of k’s. Pineda only threw 26 innings last year. In that short sample he kept hitters to a 23.2% hard hit rate and he did it by getting them to chase with a chase rate of 39%. He had a k rate 8.44/9 so there’s limited upside. But on a day where there just isn’t much in the way of pitching, sometimes you have to play it safe. This Brewers lineup is not the same lineup it was a couple of years ago. After Yelich, there just isn’t much.

The final pitcher I’m going to recommend is Tarik Skubal ($6k). Here’s my high risk/high reward play. Last season he pitched to a 10.41 k/9. He did this by throwing gas last year. This off-season he added some new pitches to his repertoire. He is a fly ball pitcher so be a little cautious. He had a 54% fb rate last year. With that being said though, the Indians lineup is watered down. You have Ramirez and then not much.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Of the 8 games in today’s main slate, 3 have an implied total greater than 5. One of those teams I’m going to eliminate from my thought process as I just don’t see the Red Sox being able to do that much damage. Their lineup just isn’t very good and we have seen what Means and Harvey did to them the last couple of days. This could very well bight me as Bruce Zimmermann was brutal last year. But until the Red Sox can prove they can hit, I’m staying clear.

The first team I’m looking to stack today are the Royals. Jordan Lyles was horrific last year. He pitched to a 5.92 xFIP and had a swinging strike rate of 6.7%. He doesn’t miss many bats. I’m going 1-3 here, maybe 1-5 depending on how the lineup shakes out today. Merrifield ($4k), Benintendi ($2.9k), and Santana ($3.3k). Do keep an eye on the lineup though as Benintendi did leave the game early yesterday.

The next spot is the good ole Bronx. The Blue Jays are giving TJ Zeuch a spot start today. Although he is predominantly a ground ball pitcher, he doesn’t miss many at bats. He’s got low k stuff. Not missing many at bats is normally a recipe for disaster against a tough lineup like the Yankees. Judge ($4k), Hicks ($3.2K), Stanton ($3.8K), and Torres ($3.8k) is where I’m leaning with this stack.

My final stack recommendation is the Cardinals. Jeff Hoffman was bad last year. He pitched to a 5.39 xFIP. He had a FB rate of almost 39%. And a hard hit rate of almost 43%. Feel confident in rolling with Arenado ($3.8k) and Goldschmidt ($4k). Both have career woba’s of over .368 against right handed pitching. Cardinals fans are going to have a great summer with these 2.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

Keep an eye on Wrigley. There’s currently no line on the game and that could be due to the winds. If it’s blowing out, load em up. If it’s blowing in, consider looking towards Zach Davies as one of your pitchers.

While I think every slate is fun, this slate has the makings of a super fun slate. This is a slate where offense will reign supreme.

Good luck and hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: A Light and Fluffy Wednesday

5 years ago

written by

A surprisingly light Wednesday awaits, as the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks will focus on the eight games that comprise the main slate (five games) and the late schedule (three).

The emphasis will be on those playing the full evening slate, one that lacks elite pitching outside of Shane Bieber of the Indians and Hyun-Jin Ryu of the Dodgers.

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9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Catcher

Mitch Garver, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,600), FD ($3,400)

Garver (jaw) missed Tuesday’s game, but is a likely go tonight. There’s good reason why he’s expense at DraftKings, as Garver has produced a 1.248 OPS over the past two weeks with three homers, eight runs scored and five RBI. Like most of (with apologies to Ole and Arn Anderson) the Minnesota Wrecking Crew, Garver has a monster Isolated Power total (.345), but he’s at his most dangerous on the road, where Garver has a 1.023 OPS with 15 homers and 35 RBI. You have to also love the combination of his 47.2% fly ball rate and 46.1% hard contact rate, which is why Garver’s a heck of a play.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – First Baseman

Rhys Hoskins, PHI at CIN

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,700)

Reds starter Trevor Bauer, he of the 8.40 ERA since arriving in Cincinnati, must face Hoskins, whose bat has come alive at just the right time for the Phillies. Hoskins hit just .161 for the month of August, but he’s hammered pitchers to a 1.015 OPS over the past two weeks and opened September with a pair of homers on Labor Day. With a 17.4% walk rate, Hoskins doesn’t need to go deep to touch base. Like the aforementioned Garver, Hoskins has a (very) strong fly ball rate at 51.5% to go along with a 45% hard contact rate, two very good traits to have at Great American Ball Park.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Second Baseman

Whit Merrifield, KC vs. DET

DK ($4,700), FD ($3,600)

Merrifield has a homer in the three previous times he’s faced Tigers hurler Edwin Jackson. While becoming less of a baserunner, Merrifield’s Isolated Power (.172) took a 34-point jump from 2018 along with a sharp increase in HR/FB% (10.3%). Merrifield had three hits on Tuesday night, and stands to imagine he should be a good 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks member considering he’s going against Tigers pitching.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Shortstop

Kevin Newman, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,600)

The leg tightness that has kept Newman’s blistering bat on the bench the past two games should be a thing of the past. Newman has five multi-hit games in his last seven starts and was hitting .588/.611/1.176 (1.787 OPS) with three homers over the past week. Where the power he didn’t display in the minors came from is beyond me, but Newman’s 60.9% medium contact rate from last season graduated to 51.1% due in part to an increased 27.8% hard contact rate. Aristides Aquino he’s not, but you’ll take Newman picking up where he left off.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Third Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($2,900)

No matter how good a pitcher is, there’s always a batter who has his number. In what feels like a 2019 edition of Major League II, Moncada is Jack Parkman to Biber’s Ricky Vaughn, having recorded five hits in nine career at-bats against the Indians ace with a pair of solo homers and a 1.933 OPS. Perhaps this is what Moncada needs. After all, he’s hitting .182 over the past two weeks, but five of those eight hits are for extra bases (three doubles, two homers). For those of the risky nature, this matchup is sneaky good.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Jorge Soler, KC vs. DET

DK ($4,700), FD ($3,800)

Hmmm…a Royals stack (later)? Soler OWNS Detroit to the point where he could run for mayor in the D. Soler has gone .444/.500/1.000 (1.500 OPS) with nine homers among the 17 extra base hits he’s racked up against the Tigers. Oh, yeah: he’s scored 28 runs and driven 25. It’s at this point where I don’t have to give you hard contact rate percentage or fly ball frequency. Of the 9/4 DFS Hitting Picks, Soler is the one bat you must have in your lineup.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at CLE

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,500)

That picturesque stroke is starting to gain traction, evidenced by a .414 batting average and 1.088 OPS over the past week. Jimenez has a pair of homers in the same span, and why the lack of plate discipline continues to disappoint, the 36.9% hard contact rate continues to rise and offer reason for a strong September. Oddly enough, he’s done well against Cleveland this season, hitting .375/.394/.656 with a pair of dingers among his 12 hits. He’s a cheap play that’s worth adding to the lineup. Few will be bold to take him against Shane Bieber, but I would.

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN vs. PHI

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,300)

For all of his historic power display, the most impressive thing about Aquino has been his patience at the plate. Over the past two weeks, Aquino has a .361 OBP. His 7.1% walk rate is a sign that he’s realizing he doesn’t have to chase everything while waiting for the right pitch to wallop into the nether reaches of Great American Ball Park. Aquino is still doing damage despite the fact his hard contact rate has dipped to 36.5%. That’s cool, since his HR/BB% remains a devastating 37.5%. He’s becoming an advanced enough hitter to where it’s OK to slot him in the lineup, even against Aaron Nola.

9/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: Kansas City Royals: Both Merrifield and Soler have gone deep against Jackson. Hunter Dozier ($4,600 DK) has a homer and four RBI in his last three games. Aldalberto Mondesi ($3,700 FD) has four hits and three runs in his first two games off an extended DL stop. Crazy as it sounds, loading up on Royals could lead to the long green.

9/4 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Philadelphia Phillies: Start with Hoskins and consider adding Bryce Harper ($5,300 DK), who has seven runs scored and seven RBI to go along with a pair of homers over the past week. J.T. Realmuto ($3,600) is a solid play, and Corey Dickerson ($4,700) has the edge in a lefty-righty matchup against the slumping Trevor Bauer.

8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: New York Yankees: The Yankees are playing in an early slate, but if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that it’s Rangers ace Lance Lynn on the mound. Lynn is more effective outside of Texas with a 111-27 K:BB rate in 88 innings on the road. The Yankees options are familiar, but this has Buyer Beware written all over it.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/4 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/4 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Jack Flaherty

As Jason chose him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Jack Flaherty dominated the San FranciscoGiants. Flaherty went eight shutout innings, allowing just a single base hit with a walk and eight strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Jack Flaherty has been one of the best pitchers in MLB in his last seven games. In that span, he has a 0.59 ERA in 46 innings, while allowing less than a hit every two innings. He has pitched like an ace in 2019 and has not shown any signs of slowing down. Expect Jack Flaherty to continue this excellence throughout September.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Whit Merrifield

Another value pick by Jason, this time at the second base slot, Whit Merrifield had a good day at the plate against the Detroit Tigers. Merrifield went 3-for-4 with a double and a run scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Merrifield is having a great season on a largely mediocre Royals team. He upped his average to .302 for the year and is able to play anywhere on the field. He will be a huge asset for an up-and-coming Kansas City team with a great contract. Expect Whit Merrifield to continue to get on base as he ranks in the Top 50 in OBP.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Adam Frazier

Here is a screenshot of all the second basemen listed on our Hitter Projection Model, available for all premium users. Adam Frazier was one of the more expensive second basemen on the slate, but he delivered against the Miami Marlins, going 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI from the leadoff spot.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Incredibly this is a down year batting-wise for Frazier compared to last year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a down year as a whole but Fraizer, in the leadoff spot with nine HRs and 41 RBI and a .335 OBP is solid. He is in the midst of a hot streak, so expect him to ride this out for a while and build momentum into 2020.

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Washington Nationals Offense

The Washington Nationals had an incredible ending to their game last night against the New York Mets. The team combined for 11 runs on 15 hits with three walks and added a stolen base as well. Kurt Suzuki (2-for-5, 4 RBI) and Juan Soto (3-for-4, 3 RBI) each hit a home run as well.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Washington Nationals have superb starting pitching, only comparable to Houston. They don’t need to ask their offense for much on a given night. The team averages 5.31 runs a game and have scored the third-most runs in the National League behind the Dodgers and Braves. It may be difficult for the Nats to compete for the N.L. East but expect them to continue to win down the stretch and secure the top Wild Card spot.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting and Stacking Guide for July 13

Donnie Laur 5 years ago

written by Donnie Laur

Your DFS Hitting Picks and Top Stacks for Saturday.

First Base – Daniel Murphy, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $4,300, FanDuel – $3,700

Tanner Roark struggles a ton against lefties and Daniel Murphy is an above average hitter and we get the Coors Field boost here for DFS Hitting.

Second Base – Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

DraftKings – $4,200, FanDuel – $3,600

I love how Merrifield is hitting right now, he’s on fire. He gets a lefty, and he is a career .310 hitter vs. them. There is always a stolen base threat here also.

Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

DraftKings – $4,400, FanDuel – $3,800

Elvis Andrus is always a very solid DFS Hitting play at home and I love him more against lefties. Wade Miley isn’t going to strike out a ton, so the ball will be put in play here with the Texas air boost.

Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $4,900, FanDuel – $4,400

Nolan Arenado at under $5,000 on DraftKings is a crime. Tanner Roark is mediocre and I think Nolan takes him deep in Coors.

Outfield – Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $5,500, FanDuel – $4,600

As one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Blackmon is my favorite DFS Hitting plays on the slate. Roark cannot get lefties out and Blackmon has been very hot overall.

Outfield – Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

DraftKings – $5,200, FanDuel – $4,800

Mike Trout against a lefty at home? Gimme gimme. Wade LeBlanc is a terrible pitcher and Mike Trout is the best player in the league. Don’t overthink it.

Outfield – Avisail Garcia, Tampa Bay Rays

DraftKings – $4,600, FanDuel – $3,200

Until the day I no longer play DFS I will play Garcia against a lefty. He is my favorite DFS Hitting one off in tournaments every time a southpaw takes the rubber against him.

DFS Hitting Stacks

1.) Colorado Rockies

Tanner Roark is very very bad against left handed bats (.290 BAA, .531 SLG). We get the Coors Field effect here and a terrible pitcher on the mound. Give me all the lefties plus Nolan Arenado. Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, and David Dahl. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t be the highest scoring team on the slate.

2.) Texas Rangers

Outside of his home stadium, Wade Miley has been horrible. He holds a 4.56 ERA and a .250 BAA. He has been worse against right handed bats and that’s who I want to target with DFS Hitting Stacks. I also love Joey Gallo as he MASHES left handed pitching in Texas. Miley is going to be in for a bad night here.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting and Stacking Guide for July 13

Mark Sheppard 5 years ago

written by Mark Sheppard

Your DFS Hitting Picks and Top Stacks for Saturday.

First Base – Daniel Murphy, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $4,300, FanDuel – $3,700

Tanner Roark struggles a ton against lefties and Daniel Murphy is an above average hitter and we get the Coors Field boost here for DFS Hitting.

Second Base – Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals

DraftKings – $4,200, FanDuel – $3,600

I love how Merrifield is hitting right now, he’s on fire. He gets a lefty, and he is a career .310 hitter vs. them. There is always a stolen base threat here also.

Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers

DraftKings – $4,400, FanDuel – $3,800

Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $4,900, FanDuel – $4,400

Nolan Arenado at under $5,000 on DraftKings is a crime. Tanner Roark is mediocre and I think Nolan takes him deep in Coors.

Outfield – Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies

DraftKings – $5,500, FanDuel – $4,600

As one of the hottest hitters in baseball, Blackmon is my favorite DFS Hitting plays on the slate. Roark cannot get lefties out and Blackmon has been very hot overall.

Outfield – Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

DraftKings – $5,200, FanDuel – $4,800

Mike Trout against a lefty at home? Gimme gimme. Wade LeBlanc is a terrible pitcher and Mike Trout is the best player in the league. Don’t overthink it.

Outfield – Avisail Garcia, Tampa Bay Rays

DraftKings – $4,600, FanDuel – $3,200

Until the day I no longer play DFS I will play Garcia against a lefty. He is my favorite DFS Hitting one off in tournaments every time a southpaw takes the rubber against him.

DFS Hitting Stacks

1.) Colorado Rockies

2.) Texas Rangers

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Hitting Picks for 6/20: Colorado Kills Ray!

Alisia Gustafson 5 years ago

written by Alisia Gustafson

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First Base

Joey Votto, MIL vs. CIN

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,100)

Votto has a solid matchup against Jimmy Nelson tonight in Miller Park, a great hitters park. Votto is batting .346 with two home runs in 32 at-bats against Nelson. Nelson has a 10.29 ERA and has allowed at least four earned with four hits in each of his two starts this season. Nelson allows lefties to hit .333 but these sample sizes are very small at only 18 total at-bats. Miller Park is ranked ninth in home runs allowed with 1.226 HR/game. Also, Milwaukee’s bullpen is allowing a 4.23 ERA on the season. The Reds are slight underdogs but the under/over is high at 9.5. Feel free to roster other Reds including: Puig and Dietrich.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield , MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,900) FD ($4,000)

Whit Merrifield is batting .538 with three homers in 14 at-bats against Odorizzi. We have a high 9,5 under/over and Orodizzi has been struggling as of late, allowing four earned over six innings pitched to the Red Sox. Odorizzi has faced K.C. in one prior start this season where he allowed a .292 team BA and a 6.00 ERA. Merrifield and Kike Hernandez, two second basemen who are also OF eligible (depending on the site), are my first two locks of the day.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. ARI *Early*

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)

I’m including this sentence in two spots in this article because it is so important! Colorado kills Ray. The Rockies own a .337 team BA in 191 at-bats. The batters with the most impressive stats are easily Blackmon, Desmond, and Arenado. These players are batting a combined 38-for-90 with eight home runs in 90 at-bats. The Rockies tore up a solid matchup last night fagainst Greinke, how do you think they’ll fare today against a pitcher they have demolished in the past and who comes into this game struggling over the past month with a 4.85 ERA over his last five starts? In those starts, he’s allowed five home runs. It is clear the long ball has been a problem for him as of late and I don’t expect anything to change against an on-fire Rockies team in a great hitting environment in Chase Field.

Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU vs. NYY

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

Now that Bregman is eligible at both SS and 3B, I’ve been rostering him a little more in my GPP lineups, as he always carries upside. And tonight in Yankee Stadium, I love Bregman against Chad Green and the Yankees bullpen. Green is allowing a 7.65 ERA on the year and righties are killing him! Right-handed batters are hitting .364 with four home runs in 55 at-bats. Can Green and Yankee Stadium hold Alex Bregman?.I think not. Beware of weather though. Good thing we have the best DFS weatherman in the business here.

Other option: Trevor Story *Early*

Outfield

Kike Hernandez, LAD vs. SF

DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)

Let’s roster Kike Hernandez against Madison Bumgarner in Los Angeles tonight. Kike went 0-5 in a beautiful leadoff spot last night where he was fairly high owned. Disappointing for sure, but today’s a new day and I do expect him to lead off against despite his hitless efforts last night. Hernandez owns a .500 BA with six doubles and four home runs in 49 at-bats against Bumgarner. The under/over is low but the Dodgers are favored by -180. Expect some small ball, even a stolen base potentially. Regardless of how they do it, Kike will be a crucial piece in the Dodgers beating Bumgarner tonight. Bumgarner has already seen the Dodgers three times this season and owns them with a 0.95 ERA but has gone 0-2 due to no run support. Don’t stack the Dodgers but Hernandez is a viable play at such cheap pricing.

Charlie Blackmon, COL vs. ARI *Early*

DK ($3,400) FD ($5,500)

Colorado kills Ray. The Rockies own a .337 team BA in 191 at-bats. The batters with the most impressive stats are easily, Blackmon, Desmond, and Arenado. These players are batting a combined 38 for 90 with eight home runs in 90 at-bats. Lock and load this stack please and thank you. You won’t regret it. The Rockies are underdogs by -160 with a 9 under/over.

Other Option: Justin Upton

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day:

Early slate MKF game, you know what that means. No work gets done today, we’ll all be checking our phones every two minutes for the updates on the Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks game. We’re going to go with game flow, making four of these five picks pretty simple. For the back three including: Story, Blackmon and Arenado, we’re going with the OVER. I do think this will be a seven+ run effort by the Rockies and consequently Robbie Ray at 6.5 strikeouts seems a little high. Especially since the Rockies have only struck out 48 times over their last six games, ranking them eighth lowest in the league. The Rockies are seeing the ball well and Robbie Ray WILL have a tough time against them today in a hitter’s park.

The last prop is tough. Jeff Hoffman at 3.5 strikeouts isn’t an easy call but consider the Diamondbacks have the third least strikeouts over the past week and rank 14th in the league with 644 strikeouts. We’re going with the UNDER. This is clearly not the strikeout prone Arizona offense we’ve come to know from past seasons. They are seeing the ball well and Hoffman should have a tough day. So, To be clear, from left to right: UNDER, UNDER, OVER, OVER, OVER. And for the record, I do think Trevor Story plays. Get in on this game and get 100 percent bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Winners and Losers: Alonso, deGrom and More

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

There was a 15 game slate on Tuesday, June 18th. After a few delays we were able to get in 14 of those with the exception being the Phillies and Nationals game. The Mets had some huge scoring performances and there were also a few big names who did not perform up to their lofty standards. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings.

Winners

Pete Alonso ($4,900)

Alonso and the Mets were the team you wanted to back in fantasy on Tuesday. They beat the Braves 10-2 on the road and had three huge fantasy performances, starting with Alonso. Alonso went 4-for-4 with a home run and two doubles. He finished the game with three RBI, three runs scored, and walked twice. That all added up to 39 fantasy points. Alonso has been a beast in his rookie campaign and has now hit 24 home runs and has 57 RBI. He has a batting average of .274 to go with his impressive OPS of .982. He extended his hitting streak to seven games.

Alonso’s Outlook

Pete Alonso and the Mets have one more game in Atlanta before heading to Chicago for a four game series with the Cubs. They will face off against Max Fried Wednesday. Fried has decent numbers on the year but he has not pitched well lately. He has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Over his last four starts, though, he has given up 17 earned runs on 17 hits while pitching just 20.1 innings. He has also given up 10 home runs to righties this year and they have a batting average of .281 against him. This looks like a great spot to fire up Alonso again after his huge game Tuesday.

Jacob deGrom ($10,300)

He got the win as he went 8.1 innings while giving up two earned runs on five hits. Both of these runs came on solo home runs in the ninth inning. He scored 35.15 fantasy points. deGrom has been a really good fantasy pitcher this year and his strikeout numbers are in great shape. deGrom has a K/9 that is north of 11 to go with his ERA/WHIP of 3.26/1.08. He has been really good in his last three, striking out 28 over 21.1 innings and giving up only six hits.

deGrom’s Outlook

deGrom’s next projected start will come on Sunday, June 23 in Chicago against the Cubs. The Cubs offense has been just adequate lately and averages 4.6 runs per game in the month of June. Over that same time span they rank 23rd in team batting average, hitting only .237. They are also below league average at home this year, ranking 17th. The positive outlook doesn’t stop there either as they rank 14th in team batting average in day games. Chicago’s strikeout numbers are also up as they rank 10th in the league in the month of June. All of these stats point to deGrom being considered for the top pitcher spot against the Cubs Sunday.

Whit Merrifield ($4,800)

Merrifield and the Royals won in dominating fashion on Tuesday. Merrifield went 3-for-4 and hit two home runs. He ended up with six RBI and three runs scored. He scored 41 fantasy points. This now brings Merrifield’s season batting average to .306 and his OPS is at .862. He has hit 10 home runs and has 39 RBI. He has also added 11 stolen bases.

Merrifield’s Outlook

The Royals have one more game in Seattle before heading back home to face the Twins for four games. Wednesday starter Marco Gonzales has been inconsistent this year and Merrifield has the platoon advantage in this matchup. In Gonzales’ last four starts, he has given up earned runs of one, two, six and 10 and hit numbers of two, two, 10 and eight. The Royals have been one of the worst teams in the league but have found offense lately, scoring 23 runs in their last three games. Expect Merrifield to keep it going against Gonzales and the Mariners Wednesday.

Losers

Julio Teheran ($9,500)

You have already read about the Mets winning big Tuesday and that means that the Braves starter, Teheran, got roughed up early. Teheran was only able to get through four innings and gave up six earned runs. The Mets got to him for eight hits, three walks, and one home run. He did strike out three over his 83 pitches. This netted him -3.6 fantasy points. Teheran fell to 5-5 after the loss and his ERA rose to 3.40. His WHIP also grew to 1.26. His K/9 is at 8.14.

Teheran’s Outlook

Teheran has been a dominant pitcher lately and gave up more earned runs Tuesday than he had over his last eight starts combined. That covered 44.2 innings. The only issue with Teheran in that span is that he does not control his pitch count well and didn’t get past six innings in any of those. Those numbers, though, add up to a bounce-back opportunity for him in his next start against the Cubs at Wrigley on Monday, June 24th. I already went into detail on the Cubs struggles lately and nearly all of those stats from above can be copied and pasted here against Teheran. Look for him to bounce back against the scuffling Cubs offense.

Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200)

Giancarlo Stanton made his highly anticipated return to action Tuesday and disappointed in a big way. He went 0-for-4 with two ugly strikeouts. He didn’t hit the ball hard in any of his at bats and did not look comfortable in the box. This was Stanton’s first action since May.

Stanton’s Outlook

Stanton has come off a long layoff and had mixed results in rehab. He hit .286 overall but went only 1-for-11 in Triple-A. Five of Stanton’s six hits in the minors went for home runs. This has been his all-or-nothing style that we have grown to know. Stanton should get back to hitting home runs but I am giving the rust plenty of time to go away before I pay a premium price on him.

Injury Report

Mike Moustakas left Tuesday’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch. He should have some X-rays to make sure there are no breaks.

Max Scherzer broke his nose after fouling a bunt off of his face in practice Tuesday.

Justin Smoak (quad) and Edwin Jackson (back) are both headed to the 10-day IL for the Blue Jays.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Hitting and MLB Prop Picks for 6/17: Don’t Dodge Dodgers

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We’ve been killing it with our Monkey Knife Fight picks and these articles are a major reason why. Breaking down a slate is key in order to make the correct decisions when picking props and these articles truly help to whittle away any bad plays. With that in mind, there are a couple of teams we absolutely love on this slate and the ballclub we’re really going to key in on is the Dodgers!

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Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy, LAA at TOR

DK ($3,300) FD ($2,700)

If you’ve read my articles, you know that I pay up or punt the catcher position. For this slate, we’re going to punt and go with Lucroy. While the Angels catcher has struggled recently, he’s still providing a .678 OPS for the season. That’s by no means a special number but it’s all you can ask for from a catcher who remains so cheap. What makes him intriguing on this slate is his matchup with Edwin Jackson. The Blue Jays righty is pitching to a 10.22 ERA and 2.03 WHIP this season, which simply puts all of the Angels bats in play.

First Base

Max Muncy, LAD vs. SF

DK ($5,000) FD ($3,700)

Muncy has been one of the best power hitters in the Majors since joining the Dodgers and it’s impossible not to like him in a matchup like this. Since joining Los Angeles, Muncy has a .567 SLG, .300 ISO and .952 OPS. A large amount of those special numbers have come against right-handers, with Muncy generating a .393 OBP and .965 OPS in that span. The matchup is superb too, and we’ll go over Tyler Beede’s ugly numbers later in the article.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield, KC at SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Finding a second baseman is easily the toughest thing to do on this slate but Merrifield makes a fantastic value on both sites. This is a guy who’s typically $4,000 on FD and $5,000 on DK and it’s hard to understand why his price has dropped. Over his last 17 games, Merrifield is hitting .348 while averaging more than 10 FD points per game. That hot stretch becomes particularly enticing against a lefty, with Merrifield posting a .338 AVG and .869 OPS against southpaws so far this season

Third Base

Manny Machado, SD vs. MIL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,500)

Machado is starting to get hot and now’s the time to hop on the train while his price remains so low. This is a perennial All-Star whose typically $500 more on each site and recent results show just why. Over his last four games, Machado is 10-for-19 at the plate while collecting three homers, 10 runs scored and six RBI in that span. That’s a lot of positive regression hitting quickly and it could continue against Jhoulys Chacin, who’s pitching to a 5.74 ERA and 1.48 WHIP so far this season.

Shortstop

Adalberto Mondesi, KC at SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Let’s keep our mini Royals stack going with Mondesi. What’s really bizarre about this guy is the fact that these DFS sites continue to undervalue him. We’re talking about a player whose Top 10 in total fantasy points since the All-Star break last season and he’s not being priced like that. Any guy averaging 13 FD points per game should be well above $4,000 and there are simply not many players who can match his upside. Getting the platoon advantage in his favor only adds to his value, with Mondesi posting an OPS north of .800 and a SLG just shy of .500 against lefties since last year’s All-Star break.

Outfield

Cody Bellinger/Joc Pederson, LAD vs. SF

DK ($5,700) FD ($4.700)/DK ($4,600) FD ($3,200)

We left a little bit of foreshadowing in the Muncy write-up about this matchup, as we absolutely love the Dodgers on this slate. The reason for that is because they face Tyler Beede, who’s pitching to an 8.06 ERA and 2.06 WHIP this season. That’s why the Dodgers are projected for five runs, which should be higher in my opinion. Getting a matchup like this puts all of these talented lefties squarely in play and that’s a scary thought from such a potent lineup. Joc Pederson is definitely the value play of the bunch, as he’s been stellar as the leadoff hitter for the Dodgers. In fact, Joc has all 18 of his dingers against righties so far this season, accruing a .976 OPS against them. Bellinger’s numbers speak for themselves, with the slugging outfielder ranking either first or second in BA, SLG, RBI, OBP and OPS. Don’t be afraid to stack all of these guys together.

Khris Davis, OAK vs. BAL

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,600)

Davis might be my favorite per-dollar play on the board. The reason for that is because he’s getting hot and when Davis starts heating up, you use him! Over his last seven games, Davis has three homers and six RBI. That’s the power hitter we’ve become accustomed to, with Davis leading the league in home runs since 2015. His ISO is actually approaching .300 in that span too, and that further shows just how much power this dude possesses. Facing Andrew Cashner is the finishing touch, with the Baltimore righty pitching to a 4.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP dating back to 2016 while providing a nightmare HR rate.

Yasiel Puig, CIN vs. HOU

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,000)

Puig is a personal favorite of mine and he’s been great to me in these articles. While his .223 AVG is nothing to write home about, this guy just continues to provide fantasy points. He has 13 homers, nine steals and 37 RBI. Those are elite counting statistics and it always puts him in play at this sort of price. What I like here is that he gets the platoon advantage against Wade Miley, with Puig posting an .895 OPS against lefties so far this season.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Max Muncy, Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger over 5.5 runs+RBI

This play really doesn’t take a whole lot of explanation after my write-ups. The simple fact is, I think the Dodgers are going to approach double-digit runs here. These lefties will surely play a huge factor in that, especially against a guy with an 8.06 ERA and WHIP above 2.00.

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Mike Trout over 1.5 hits+walks

I didn’t include Trout in the write-up because it was simply too easy of a pick. We’re talking about the best player in baseball facing a guy with an ERA above 10.00 and a WHIP north of 2.00. That alone makes Trout a great play, but the MVP candidate is also leading the Majors with an absurd .453 OBP. He’ll get on base at least twice

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting and Prop Picks for 6/4: We Love L.A.

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

Catcher

Gary Sanchez ($4,300 FD & $5,400 DK): Right-handed power batters typically fare well in the Rogers Centre. I don’t know what it is about the stadium because it’s a dome, so there are no environmental factors but year after year right-handed power bats kill at the Rogers Centre. The Yankees are also favored at – 185 with a 9 under/over. Sanchez should be a solid part of this offensive effort as they’ll be facing the left-handed Clayton Richard. Richard has started only twice so far this season and has yet to make it past the fifth inning. Toronto’s bullpen is sporting a 4.21 season ERA, which is ranked 12th in the Majors. But you have to remember, the Blue Jays are in the midst of a six game losing streak and have an extremely depleted bullpen. The Yankees catcher is slightly pricey but 100% worth it tonight.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion ($3,700 FD & $4,100 DK): Encarnacion owns a .389 BA with three homers against Wade Miley. Although I do think Miley tosses a solid game, I also think Encarnacion continues his success against Houston’s left-hander.

Second Base

Whit Merrifield ($3,800 FD & $4,700 DK): Every one likes going against E-Rod today and for good reason. Kansas City has been striking out at a massive rate and on top of that producing minimal runs over a two week span. This has occurred in K.C. before, and they usually have a go-to remedy. That remedy is small ball. Merrifield is likely the man to benefit off some solid Kansas City small ball. Stolen Bases, Runs, maybe even an RBI off of a well executed hit and run. Don’t expect the long ball but there are still fantasy points to be had. Merrifield is currently 5-6 against E-Rod with one stolen base.

Third Base

Kris Bryant ($4,200 FD & $5,200 DK): Bryant has two homers in seven at-bats against Jeff Hoffman. The Cubs are at -200 with a 10.5 under/over. Hoffman is currently allowing a .375 BA with two homers to opposing right-handed batters in 32 at-bats. Kris Bryant? Lock him in please.

Shortstop

Corey Seager ($3,500 FD & $4,700 DK): The Los Angeles Dodger left-handed batters: I love all of them. Joc, Muncy, Bellinger etc. I don’t know where to start. How about the fact that opposing pitcher Taylor Clarke has a 7.56 ERA over his past two starts, or that opposing lefties are hitting .297 with two dingers in 37 at-bats. How about this one: In his last start he allowed five earned over two innings pitched to the Colorado Rockies. Corey Seager and the Los Angeles Dodgers left-handed batters, one of my most confident plays of the day.

Outfield

Cody Bellinger ($4,600 FD & $5,800 DK):

Everything that I mentioned for Corey Seager applies to Cody Bellinger. Except there is one more advantage for Bellinger which is, he is expected to be in that cleanup spot. This could be huge for potential RBI opportunities. Los Angeles is favored at -220 with a 9.5 under/over.

Joc Pederson ($3,800 FD & $5,600 DK): Do I have to say all of this again. I’ll add one prediction here, leadoff home run for Joc Pederson. Los Angeles left-handed batters, love them tonight.

David Dahl ($3,500 FD & $4,300 DK): has two home runs in six at-bats against Kyle Hendricks. Similar to the Edwin call, I do think Hendricks performs well tonight. With that said, Dahl could hit another home run against Hendricks on a long ball kind of day in Chicago.

JaguarDFS Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Let’s go big or go home! I’ve made it pretty clear that I like Wade Miley tonight, with Seattle striking out the way they have over the past week. We’re going to be locking the OVER in for the first section. The next prop including Encarnacion is easy to me, 1.5 runs + RBI should definitely be OVER as well.

Encarnacion is batting .389 with three homers in 25 at-bats against Miley. For the third and fourth picks including Bregman and Brantley, I will be updating this article when the confirmed pitcher is announced for Seattle. With that said, the last pick including Mallex Smith, is an easy UNDER for me. Mallex should be going L/L for most of the game and if he’s not leading off, this prop is a definite under to me. Smith is currently batting .220 against lefties and is even worse against right-handed pitchers with a .186 BA. Three of these five plays are easily locked in for me, Play MLB Prop Games NOW and get 100 percent bonus.

Updated: 11:13 AM EST

Seattle will be starting Andrew Moore, and by every indication he is NOT ready for this start. In Triple-A this season he was rocking a 12.98 ERA in four starts. Prior, he allowed massive number in limited starts in Double-A. Not quite sure what they see here but we are going to take the over on both the Brantley and Bregman props. So, to be clear from left to right; Over, over, over, over and Mallex Smith’s parlay I predict the under.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting Stacks for 5/29: Bright Reds

Marshall Rosen 5 years ago

written by Marshall Rosen

Here are thetop teams to stack for MLB’s May 29th action:

EARLY SLATE

Cincinnati Reds

The Pirates’ Steven Brault is a guy we want to attack when he takes the bump for Pittsburgh. The left-handed pitcher has a robust 7.11 ERA. And his other numbers for this season aren’t any better. Brault has a 5.46 SIERA and a 5.85 xFIP. The Pittsburgh starter also is getting hit hard with a 44.9% hard contact rate, making the Reds look like a juicy stacking option for Thursday.

The building blocks for this stack will be Eugenio Suarez (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $4,900) and Nick Senzel (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $4,900). Both of these right-handed bats have at least a .300 ISO against lefties in 2019. And while he doesn’t have great numbers against southpaws this season, how do you not chase yesterday’s three home run performance by Derek Dietrich (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,900)?

Other Reds to look at it include: Kyle Farmer (FanDuel: $2,100 DraftKings: $3,800) and Yasiel Puig (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,200). Both Cincinnati bats have over .200 ISOs against lefties in 2019.

Seattle Mariners

The Rangers’ Drew Smyly is struggling this season with a 6.15 ERA and is allowing 2.14 HR/9. With seven Mariners owning an ISO of over .200 against southpaws in 2019, the Texas starter’s struggles should continue in this one.

These seven players should be the emphasis of your stack: Jay Bruce (FanDuel: $3,100 DraftKings: $4,300), Domingo Santana (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $4,500), Daniel Vogelbach (FanDuel: $3,700 DraftKings: $5,300), Tim Beckham (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,800), Mitch Haniger (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $4,400), Omar Narvaez (FanDuel: $2,900 DraftKings: $4,200) and Edwin Encarnacion (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $4,500).

Los Angeles Angels

Since returning to the big leagues, the Athletics’ Daniel Mengden has been hit really hard by opposing offenses. In fact, he has allowed a 50% hard contact rate. The hard contact has resulted in him having a 6.07 SIERA and a 6.11 xFIP. The Angels’ offense should be able to hit some balls awfully hard against the young Oakland right-hander here and make for a great value play to combine with Cincinnati or Seattle.

Mike Trout (FanDuel:$4,700 DraftKings: $5,500), Kole Calhoun (FanDuel: $3,500 DraftKings: $4,100),Albert Pujols (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,500), Shohei Ohtani (FanDuel: $3,300DraftKings: $3,500) and Tommy La Stella (FanDuel: $3,100 DraftKings: $3,900)all have produced at least a 45% hard contact rate against righties in 2019.

MAIN SLATE

Arizona Diamondbacks

Winning DFS lineups for today’s slate will likely be loaded with Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies will be running Jeff Hoffman out to the bump. The right-handed starter has not fared well at Coors Field in his career. Hoffman has allowed a .303/.376/.541 slash line in 86.1 innings pitched in Colorado. Hoffman also has a 5.20 xFIP and 5.7% K-BB% in those contests. Look for the Diamondbacks to take advantage of this matchup in a big way tonight.

The Diamondbacks’ build must start with Eduardo Escobar (FanDuel: $4,600 DraftKings: $5,700). The third baseman is red hot. He has scored double-digit fantasy points per game for a week now. His hot streak should continue on Wednesday. Escobar has crushed against righties this season. He owns a .250 ISO and a .351 wOBA against them. You can build around Escobar with a combination of Adam Jones (FanDuel: $4,000 DraftKings: $5,300) and Ketel Marte (FanDuel: $4,400 DraftKings: $5,500) as well. Each of these Diamondbacks’ hitters have .200-plus ISOs against right-handed pitching in 2019.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies have had Robbie Ray’s number throughout his career. In 106 at-bats against the current Colorado roster, the Arizona starter has allowed a .302/.395/.586 slash line with a .982 OPS. Of the 32 hits Ray has allowed to the current Rockies’ hitters, 16 of them have been for extra bases. And seven of those have left the yard. The success against Ray should continue tonight as the Rockies’ offense has a.209 ISO versus lefties in 2019.

When building your Rockies’ stack, of course you will want to start the construction with Nolan Arenado (FanDuel: $4,900 DraftKings: $5,600). The infielder has crushed lefties this season. He has a .466 ISO and a .516 wOBA versus them. Also, he has killed Ray in the past. Arenado has a 1.289 career OPS against the Diamondbacks’ pitcher.

You also need to consider Ian Desmond (FanDuel: $3,500DraftKings: $3,900). The outfielder has an ISO of .321 versus lefties in 2019.He also has a 1.289 career OPS versus Ray. Chris Iannetta (FanDuel: $3,300DraftKings: $3,700), Ryan McMahon (FanDuel: $3,200 DraftKings: $4,100), DanielMurphy (FanDuel: $3,600 DraftKings: $4,100), Raimel Tapia (FanDuel: $3,200DraftKings: $4,100) and even Mark Reynolds (FanDuel: $3,000 DraftKings: $3,500)should all be considered. Each of those Rockies’ hitters have .200-plus ISOsagainst left-handed pitching in 2019.

Kansas City Royals

The ChicagoWhite Sox’s Reynaldo Lopez has struggled this season. The Right-hander has a5.09 SIERA and a 5.81 xFIP. Lopez has also allowed a 53.6% flyball rate and a40.9% hard contact rate. In addition to his 2019 struggles, Lopez has also hada difficult time with the Royals in his career. Against the current Royals’roster, the Chicago starter has allowed a .301 batting average and a .382 on-basepercentage.

Hunter Dozier(FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,100) and Jorge Soler (FanDuel: $3,100DraftKings: $4,400) are great building blocks to a Royals’ stack. Both KansasCity hitter have ISO’s of at least .275 against right-handed pitcher but theyalso have .900-plus OPS against flyball pitchers.

Alex Gordon (FanDuel:$3,400 DraftKings: $4,800) and Adalberto Mondesi (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,500)also have produced at least a .200 ISO against righties in 2019. While WhitMerrifield (FanDuel: $3,900 DraftKings: $5,200) has a .364 wOBA and a 127 wRC+against right-handed pitching this season.

Philadelphia Phillies

The St.Louis Cardinals will be starting Genesis Cabrera. The left-handed pitcher has a6.35 ERA in Triple-A this season. In 39.2 innings pitched for the Memphis Cardinals,Cabrera has allowed 43 hits and 19 walks that have led to 28 earned runs. ThePhillies are likely going to provide a rude welcome the Cardinals’ starter.

Jean Segura (FanDuel:$3,900 DraftKings: $4,800), J.T. Realmuto (FanDuel: $3,400 DraftKings: $4,600),Scott Kingery (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $4,100), Rhys Hoskins (FanDuel: $4,400DraftKings: $4,900) and Bryce Harper (FanDuel: $4,300 DraftKings: $4,500) allwill be part of the welcoming party. Each of these players have recorded atleast a .200 ISO versus lefties in 2019.

Baltimore Orioles

The Tigers’Ryan Carpenter has had a rough go to the start of his 2019 campaign. He isallowing 3.21 HR/9 while maintaining a 9.00 ERA. While we usually stack againstthe Orioles, today you want to stack with the Orioles.

This stackwill of course start with Trey Mancini (FanDuel: $3,800 DraftKings: $5,000).While he is not a cheap part of the stack, he is an owner of a .283 ISO and a.430 wOBA versus lefties this season.

The other bat to consider starting the Baltimore stack with is Pedro Severino (FanDuel: $2,800 DraftKings: $3,900). Severino has a .300-plus ISOs against lefties this season.

Good luckand happy stacking!

5 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Whit Merrifield

MLB DFS: The ‘Aces’

MLB DFS: The Bases

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Catcher

Mitch Garver, MIN at BOS

DK ($5,600), FD ($3,400)

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – First Baseman

Rhys Hoskins, PHI at CIN

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,700)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Second Baseman

Whit Merrifield, KC vs. DET

DK ($4,700), FD ($3,600)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Shortstop

Kevin Newman, PIT vs. MIA

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,600)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Third Baseman

Yoan Moncada, CWS at CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($2,900)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Jorge Soler, KC vs. DET

DK ($4,700), FD ($3,800)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at CLE

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,500)

9/4 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN vs. PHI

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,300)

9/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Jack Flaherty

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Whit Merrifield

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Adam Frazier

9/4 MLB DFS Winner: Washington Nationals Offense

DFS Hitting Stacks

DFS Hitting Stacks

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day:

Winners

Pete Alonso ($4,900)

Alonso’s Outlook

Jacob deGrom ($10,300)

deGrom’s Outlook

Whit Merrifield ($4,800)

Merrifield’s Outlook

Losers

Julio Teheran ($9,500)

Teheran’s Outlook

Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200)

Stanton’s Outlook

Injury Report

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

Shortstop

Outfield

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Catcher

First Base

Second Base

Third Base

Shortstop

Outfield

JaguarDFS Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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