The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in California as the players face off at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Course(s): Torrey Pines South and North
Par: 72
Length: South – 7,698 yards, North – 7,258 yards.
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua, 4,500 sq ft in size, below tour average.
Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye. Rough will be at three and a half inches.
Architect: William Bell originally with a redesign in 2001 (Rees Jones) and later the North Course in 2016 (Tom Weiskopf).
For a hole by hole breakdown of the South Course, click here.
For a hole by hole breakdown of the North Course, click here.
Like last week this will be a course rotation. Each golfer will get a turn on both the North and South course for the Farmers Insurance Open. After the cut (Top 65 and ties) on Friday, golfers will play the remaining weekend on the South Course.
Last year the FIO played easier than expected and the winning score was in the low 20s. Previous years the top golfer finished between six to 13. I think the scoring comes back down from years past and with that in mind, let’s look at the top 10 golfers who perform well on average to difficult scoring courses.
On the South course more so than the North course golfers will find hitting the fairways to be troublesome. Most of the fairways are narrow than tour average with trees on both sides. Here are the top golfers in the field when it comes to OTT (off the tee) on hard to hit fairways.
Coming off of Bermuda, the field of golfers will have to contest with Bentgrass greens with Poa Annua. Let’s look at some of the best golfers with dealing with the greens here at the Farmers Insurance Open.
Here are the top 10 golfers with all three course conditions factored in.
The hardest holes on the course are Par 4 between 450 – 500 yards. The easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. Being able to avoid bogey on the Par 4 and birdie on the Par 5 will be critical. With the North course playing shorter golfers should have a smaller iron or wedge in their hands for the second shot. Look for golfers who do well between the 150 – 175-yard range for proximity. Birdie or better will be huge on the North course though it gets played only once out of the four days, assuming the golfer makes the cut.
This is where the two courses have a similarity. The toughest holes to play on the South course is between 450 – 500 yards on the Par 4. Par 5 also plays as the easiest but they range from 550 – 600 yards. Golfers will have to be able to play the second shot with 200+ yards in most cases. While opportunity gained should always be used, Bogey Avoidance will be getting applied here. Being able to avoid the big numbers will be key to making the cut and advancing on the weekend.
Below is the top 10 golfers with all player traits evenly weighted for the FIO.
This tournament is the first of the year that we have a truly loaded field of top-end talent. Players that have been high priced over the start of 2020 will see their pricing suppressed greatly outside of the studs. Just because they’re cheap now doesn’t necessarily make them a good value.
Course Setup
Average to difficult scoring conditions
Hard-hitting fairways
Bentgrass with Poa Annua
Player Efficiencies
North Course –
Par 5 500 – 550
Proximity 150 – 175
Birdie or better
South Course –
Par 5 550 – 600
Proximity 200+
Bogey Avoidance
Farmers Insurance Open Overall –
Par 4 450 – 500
Opportunity Gained
Scrambling
Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.
Stats source: FantasyNational
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the final leg of theAsian swing with for the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. Let’s find some GPPwinners!
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Quick reviewof last week: We had Tiger, Matsuyama and Rory in our core builds, and theyfinished 1-3. We also pegged high-priced Matthew Fitzpatrick as a key fade, andhe finished second to last among the 76 golfers who finished the tournament. Prettysolid.
Okay. Now onto this week.
PGA DFS Course Notes:
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD$12,400) –We talked about how Rory likestree-line layouts, and he finished T3 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, where he ledthe field in par-5 scoring – obne of our top stats this week. In four starts atSheshan International, he has two top-10s and a T11. Giddyup.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,100, FD $11,400) – Matsuyama is playing really well and his form (T16, a T3 and a solo second to open the season) isn’t the only thing he’s got going. He tore the course to shreds at Sheshan International in 2016 en route to a seven-shot victory.
Xander Schauffele (DK $10,800, FD $11,300) – Xander likes the competition of a loaded field, and there’s a lot of great golfers here to get him pumped up. He’s the defending champion and he finished T10 at Narashino on Sunday. The X-Man is ready.
Justin Rose (DK $10,500, FD $11,200) – I like Rose, despitehis putting woes. I like Justin, so much that I’m bustin! Seriously, though – theEnglishman is a great ball striker and he won here in 2017, finishing third inhis title defense.
Also consider: Paul Casey,Patrick Reed, Tony Finau
Adam Scott (DK $9,300, FD $10,600) – Adam has top-20s in three of the last five appearances here and in five of his last seven starts worldwide. That’s a great start, he’s got a good price, and he’s shown improvement with his occasionally shaky putting.
Billy Horschel (DK $8,900, FD$10,200) –When he’srolling, he’s really rolling. He finished T6 at ZOZO and that gave him his 10thtop-25 in 14 starts worldwide. Finished T11 here last year and has a greatattitude, especially in no-cut events.
Byeong Hun An (DK $9,100, FD$10,000) –Ben hasplayed well recently, which helped carry him through a difficult course design atthe ZOZO. He was T6 at NINE BRIDGES, he finished T8 at Narashino and while Shesanis a challenge, he’s a solid contrarian play who will be low-owned.
Corey Connors (DK $8,200, FD$9,300) – Connorsis one of the more underrated golfers on tout and has finished T13-T12-T6 inadvance of his debut at Shesan. PGA tour notes that he excelled on TPC SanAntonio’s tough par 5s – which is a featured stat here.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,600, FD$8,900) –Oostyfinished T46th last week, but I’ll chalk that up to bad weather. He’s still greatoff the tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who can get hot with theputter.
Matt Wallace (DK $ FD $9,600) – The cheeky, sometimes-harsh Brit is debuting as an official member of the PGA Tour and has three top-10s and a T15 in his last five starts on the Euro Tour. We saw a little of what he can do in crowded fields last season during the majors, and he’s got plenty of upside.
Charles Howell, III (DK $7,900, FD $9,000) – A long and accuratehitter and bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howellis cheap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubton this unfamiliar layout.
Also consider: Sungjae Im, Tyrell Hatton, Bernd Wiesberger, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – One of my favorite under-the-radarGPP plays, Van Rooyen got cut last week but otherwise has been in good form. Hefinished T14-T12-Win-T5-T20-T14-MC-T10-MC over his last nine starts dating backto the Euro Tour’s Scottish Open, and he’s a career best 58th in the OfficialWorld Golf Ranking.
Kevin Kisner (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –Kisner is a capable player without any major flaws who’s always underpriced,and I like his chances of rebounding after a tough T66 at the ZOZO. Jet lag isa thing.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD$8,600) –I’ll be using him exclusively in GPPs after last week’s debacle. I can guessthat poor showing was in part because of the weather, because he’s too good to finishthat far down. He’ll be off most people’s lists, which puts him on mine.
Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000, FD$8,600) – A long and straight driver of the golf ball, theenigmatic but eminently likeable Bradley has some good performances here: T11(2013) and sixth (2018) at Sheshan International and finished T13 at Narashino,where he was T6 in GIR. GPP-only play.
More value golfers for GPPs: Lucas Glover, Joost Luiten, MikeLorenzo-Vera, Romain Langasque, J.T. Poston
Ian Poulter (DK $7,700, FD $9,000) – He’s not great withexpectations, and he’ll be really popular because of his record in China. Golfis a fickle beast, and Poulter won’t make too many of my builds.
Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400, FD $10,400) – I’m not sure Spieth hasproven anything on the golf course recently, and he finished T66 at the ZOZO. Theprice is still too high, and I’m not convinced he’s accurate enough off the teeto excel here.
Henrik Stenson (DK $9,800, FD $10,800) – “He’s only done well in Euro tournaments recently and the first week without his three-wood, he misses the cut. He’s overpriced – should be in the $8K range on DK.” – Mark “Spades” Spada
Right there withyou, Spades. The magic three wood is gone, and so is the magic golf game.Stenson isn’t a great putter, and he missed the cut at the Houston Open despitebeing the odds-on favorite. He’s a fade for me, bro.
R. McIlroy ($11,700)
B. Horschel ($8,900)
C. Conners ($8,200)
K. Kisner ($7,200)
K. Bradley ($7,000)
J.T. Poston ($6,700)
X. Schauffele ($10,800)
A. Scott ($9,300)
L. Oosthuizen ($7,600)
C. Reavie ($7,000)
M. Lorenzo-Vera ($6,600)
M. Wallace ($8,700)
J. Rose ($10,500)
E. Van Rooyen ($7,500)
B. An ($9,100)
J. Luiten ($7,100)
T. Hatton ($8,600)
L. Glover ($7,100)
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In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re onto the second leg of theAsian swing with for the inaugural ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan. Let’s find somegems!
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Justin Thomas (DK $11,800, FD $12,200) – He won last week in Korea and checks most of the boxes this week. I won’t have massive ownership given the high price and need for a Top 3 to be worth the price, but he’s hard to fade.
RoryMcIlroy (DK $11,500, FD $12,300) – Rory said the course really meets his eye off the tee, ashe’s a fan of tree-lined layouts, and the last couple of days he’s been righthere playing in the MGM Resorts The Challenge Japan Skins. He’s one of the top dogswhen it comes to Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, as he’s the best driver of the golfball in the game, and he seems to be enjoying himself alongside his friends inJapan.
HidekiMatsuyama (DK $10,700, FD $11,200) – Matsuyama is right at home on thiscourse and is one of the few who has experience with the layout. A great ballstriker who’s a perennial leader in the focus stat categories, he’ll be popularthis week. He’s also beenplaying here a lot this week in the skins event and eventhough he’s one of the betting favorites, I’ll have shares in all formats.
Paul Casey (DK $10,100, FD $10,700) – Casey is good fit for this golf course as he was eighth on tour in SG: Approach in this past season and he won at the Valspar on Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course – a correlated course. He plays well in rain, played badly in the Italian Open and he’s also kind of expensive – making him an excellent GPP play who should garner low ownership this week.
AdamScott (DK $9,900, FD $10,600) – Much like Casey, Scott could easily fly under the radar athis price point. But he’s a savvy play and good course horse as he’s a regularfinisher among the elite in SG: Approach. The poor showing at the Shriner’swill keep most of the field off him, so I’m buying.
TommyFleetwood (DK $9,800, FD $10,400) – He plays well in theseconditions and has no problem competing with the world’s best. He’s got seventop 20s in his last nine starts worldwide since The Open Championship and he’sa closer who plays well in the final rounds of a tournament – something thathelps in no-cut events. I’ll likely have massive shares sicne ownership wiollbe low after he finished just T20 last week.
Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth
Victor Hovland (DK $9,400, FD $10,000) – Hovland’s insanesub-70s round streak came to and end in Korea, but he’s still a betting favoritewith plenty to prove on the PGA Tour – and he’s not going to carry the ownershiphe did in last week’s event.
Tiger Woods (DK $9,300, FD $10,500) – If he can avoid the long rough and keep it in play, there’s no reason Tiger can’t play well enough to win. He’s been playing the Skins Game this week after getting his knee cleaned out and is optimistic about his chances in the upcoming events. He needs just one more win to tie Sam Snead for most career PGA TOUR victories at 82.
Tony Finau (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Finau might be my favoritegolfer this week at any price. He checks all the boxes in all the stat categorieswe’re focused on, and he’s playedwell at his most recent events (T9 at Shriner’s and T10 at Alfred Dunhill Links).Narashino has some bizarre, undulating bentgrass greens (he likes bentgrass andthey’ll be using alternating sets of the greens in different days) and thattends to favor the consistency of the longer clubs in the bag, where Finaushines.
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,400, FD $9,300) – I am loving this price onOosty, who finished second at last year’s Valspar and is seeing his firstaction in a couple of months since concluding the 2018-19 season with four straight top 20s. He’s great offthe tee, a solid ball striker and a fiery competitor who should perform well inthis loaded field.
Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,200, FD $9,100) – Niemann has fared well as a ball-strikerand rates well in SG: Off the Tee. He also won a few weeks ago but scrambles outof the sand well and ranks inside the top-20 in Par-4 scoring average. Niemannmakes the short hop to Japan after a top-12 finish at The CJ Cup in Korea lastweek.
Also consider: Sergio Garcia, Sungjae Im, Adam Hadwin, Shane Lowry (GPP)
Matthew Wolff (DK $7,200, FD $8,500) – Wolff played badlyin Korea and finished near the bottom of the leaderboard, but I’m a sucker for aredemption story. A talent like this coupled with a price drop means I’ll be grabbingplenty of exposure in GPPs and counting on him for a Top 20 finish.
Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD $8,600) – Reavie is another across-the-boardperformer in our focus stats and he’s relatively cheap on DK this week. Hemight be more of a cash game value play at this price, but I’ll be using him ina few GPPs.
Charles Howell, III (DK $7,300, FD $8,600) – A long and accurate hitterand bentgrass specialist who seems like an excellent course fit, Howell ischeap and scores well on Par 4s – so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt onthis unfamiliar layout.
Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,100, FD $8,200) – Sabbatini plays wellon the course corollaries and is a modest $7,100 on DK despite a T10 at theItalian Open and a T31 finish last week in Korea. I use him in a lot of GPPsand rarely regret it.
Nate Lashley (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – Another under-the-radarpro who finished T20 last week in Korea, Lashley plays well on similar layoutsand seems to be enjoying the PGA Tour after his breakthrough win last season. Arelatively steady performer, he’s guaranteed to9 be low-owned and has upside inGPPs.
Value golfers for GPPs: C.T. Pan, J.T. Poston, JoelDahmen, Bubba Watson, Wyndham Clark
Also consider: Andrew Putnam, Kevin Streelman, Ryan Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Abraham Ancer, Dylan Frittelli
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,000, FD $9,600) – It pains me to fade him,but I’ll have much fewer shares of Fitzpatrick than usual based on his pricejump and unknown course conditions. He also might draw additional ownershipfollowing his one-stroke defeat at theItalian Open, which was his fifth runner-up finish in 11 months. I do like him,but my exposure will be diminished.
Ryan Palmer (DK $6,900, FD $7,900) – He’s a poor bad-weathergolfer and I’m expecting a letdown after a T12 last week in Korea. Palmer alsostruggles with Par 4 scoring and is making a lot of lists as a top value play thisweek, so he might be highly owned. If I was entering 150 lineups I’d have himin 3-5, but he’s far from a core play in this field.
Also fading: Daniel Berger and Jason Kokrak
Patrick Reed (DK $9,600, FD $10,200)
“Everyone else seems to be hanging out with friends outthere, having a good time – but he’s probably just by himself, miserable. I’veseen snapchats of golfers in groups out in the city to eat sushi, but not him.”– Mark “Spades” Spada
Oh man, Spades! That’s so mean — and incredibly appropriate for a guy who hates his own family and is universally loathed on tour. Those sentiments also remind me of one of my favorite Neil Young songs, which I just listened to last night on vinyl.
Reed says he’s “thrived” since committing to more feel and embracing his fundamentally unsound golf swing. He’s gone T36–T15–T4 on the European Tour and has been playing okay, but I think he’s out of his element on this course.
P. Casey ($10,100)
T. Fleetwood ($9,800)
T. Finau ($9,200)
S. Lowry ($8,000)
J.T. Poston ($6,600)
C.T. Pan ($6,200)
J. Thomas ($11,800)
S. Im ($8,800)
R. Moore ($7,800)
C. Reavie ($7,400)
A. Putnam ($7,400)
K. Streelman ($6,700)
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Each week, I’ll run through the golfers and select my personal player pool, along with ownership, exposure and key stats that led me to my selections.
$9500 & Up :
Dustin Johnson – $11,300
Vegas – 8/1
DGWR – 1st
Not much to say here because Johnson is the #1 player in the world. His first and only major was the U.S. Open, in addition to having a three-shot lead in 2010 at Pebble Beach before exploding in the final round and losing to Graeme McDowell. DJ is #2 in my overall model and it’s no surprise he’s the favorite. He’s also Top-10 in every course condition model I outlined in my Range article, which you can find on Twitter. Outside of the rough, he’s 17th but that’s still very solid. He’s as safe as anyone in the field to make the cut and he’s one a handful of guys with the ability to win. (Projected Ownership 20-25%, Exposure 35%)
Patrick Cantlay – $10,000
Vegas – 17/1
DGWR – 3rd
Fresh off a win at The Memorial, he brings plenty of momentum into the U.S. Open. As a contender at both The Masters and the PGA Championship earlier this year, he’s looking to repeat his success at Pebble Beach. Unfortunately, this time around, he’s no longer one of the cheap options. DK priced him up as the fifth-highest golfer this week and that makes him not as good of a value as I was hoping for. That won’t be enough to deter me from going heavy on him in this loaded field though. He’s sixth overall in my model and inside the Top-20 in every condition model I have. Outside of DJ, he’ll be my highest-owned golfer. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 33%)
Justin Rose – $9,700
Vegas – 24/1
DGWR – 5th
Mr. Consistency (#10 Overall in the model) has been anything but this year, but that’s not all on him. He lost his caddie because of health reasons, he’s wearing Hawaiian shirts, making commercials and changed clubs, but that might be the least of his worries. His iron game has been fine even after the switch but he just hasn’t been himself. He did show signs at The Memorial shooting though, posting a 63 (-9) in the second round. I believe the old Justin is coming on and I want to be on the train when it first arrives. His recent finishes should suppress his ownership despite being the seventh largest favorite to win according to Vegas odds. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 25%)
Rickie Fowler – $9500
Vegas – 24/1
DGWR – 10th
If there was ever a time to for the saying, “Always the bridesmaid, never the bride”, it’s with Rickie. On paper, he’s everything you could want in a winner this week — eighth in my model, almost Top-15 in nearly every statistic, plenty of experience and second or T2 in every major at some point. His only downside at Pebble would be the Poa greens, where he ranks 35th overall (remember I said ALMOST Top 15 in every stat). I’m a bit of a Rickie homer, but sooner or later, he’s getting his. That’s why I’ll keep playing him until he does just that. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 24%)
$8000 – $9,400
Tommy Fleetwood – $8,900
Vegas – 32/1
DGWR – 16th
Fleetwood has performed supremely at the U.S. Open over the last two years, finishing second and fifth, respectively. The last three events haven’t been his greatest showings with a 48th (PGA Champ), 25th (RBC Heritage) and 36th (The Masters) overall finished but his game should translate well at the U.S. Open. Coming in eighth in my model (Tied with Rickie), he’s led with his ball striking, which ranks 25th overall. You’re getting a possible Top-5 finish at a discount from the top guys and Fleetwood is certainly one of them. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 23%)
Hideki Matsuyama – $8,800
Vegas – 30/1
DGWR – 12th
Will he ever find his putter? I hope this is the week, as he’s ranked third in my Poa model. He also comes in third overall in my model, which makes me think that he will be highly owned despite his putting woes. He played well at the PGA Championship until a disastrous Sunday and his overall form has been trending upwards.
(Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 33%)
Adam Scott – $8,600
Vegas – 29/1
DGWR – 9th
Scott played so well last week at the RBC Canadian Open that in any other week he would have won it (Rory McIlroy just steamrolled the field). The last couple of years haven’t been kind to Adam at the U.S, Open, but he does have four Top-20 finishes. His recent form is really encouraging, with three Top-25 finishes in a row. Scott usually isn’t considered a good putter but has gained .5 strokes over his last 10 rounds and traditionally he’s done better on Poa. He is 17th overall in my model and I think his run of bad plays at the U.S. Open ends this week. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 27%)
Matt Kuchar – $8,500
Vegas – 39/1
DGWR – 13th
Love him or hate him, Kuchar been playing the best golf of his career, finishing 12th or better in four of his last five events. He finished 22nd at Pebble Beach (AT&T Pro-Am) earlier this year and always shows up at the U.S. Open. The last nine times out, he’s only missed the cut once (Shinnecock 2018). In that span, he’s logged five Top-20 finished and has finished as high as sixth. Ranked #1 overall in my model, I’ll make sure to be twice as heavy on him as opposed to the public. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 30%)
Paul Casey – $8,300
Vegas – 45/1
DGWR – 17th
Casey has finished second and eighth over the last two years at Pebble Beach. HHe’s also made the cut in six of his eight U.S. Open appearances, finishing 16th & 26th . He did burn people recently with a WD and MC when uber chalk, so that should limit his ownership. Now is the time to jump back on and capitalize on that. With the recent bias against Casey, people might forget he had two Top-5 finishes including a win (Valspar) in his last five outings. He comes in at 13th in my overall rankings led by his seventh-ranked ball striking. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 25%)
Bryson DeChambeau – $8,100
Vegas – 47/1
DGWR – 18th
Ah the scientist, where to begin. He hasn’t played well in the last two months with three MCs and does not have great Pebble Beach experience. Still, with all of that, this is more of a play on talent over results. He does have hit-and-miss results at the U.S. Open with two Top-25s and two MCs. I think his form is rounding into shape though and I feel comfortable playing him at his discounted price. In terms of ownership, I have him as my 31st ranked golfer this week. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 13%)
Gary Woodland – $8,000
Vegas – 68/1
DGWR – 20th
He’s just a guy right now. Woodland has been okay at Pebble, okay at the U.S. Open and just okay recently in general but he comes in 29th in my model with his ninth-ranked ball striking. For the money and ownership around this area on DK, you can do much worse than the 20th-ranked player in the world. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 23%)
$7300 – $7900
Sergio Garcia – $7,800
Vegas – 75/1
DGWR – 24th
This is a pure GPP play. You’ll hear how he’s missed eight straight cuts at a major, his poor form and how he has no Pebble experience but don’t let that deter you. This is a bet on pure talent. He does have five Top-25s at the U.S. Open in his last nine attempts. At $7,800, I’ll have a sprinkle. (Projected Ownership 4%, Exposure 7%).
Webb Simpson – $7,700
Vegas – 38/1
DGWR – 6th
Simpson is going to be chalk and for good reason. He came in as runner-up at the RBCCO last week and has made all five cuts in his last five events. In those events, he’s finished 2/29/18/16/5. Yeah, he’s on a heater. He came in 10th last year at the Open and his two other Top-15 finishes including a win. Coming in strong at fourth in my overall model, I will have plenty of Webb this week. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 27%)
Kevin Na – $7,700
Vegas – 88/1
DGWR – 36th
I wonder if Na is being overlooked? His ownership projections would indicate he is, but that may be a result of such strong golfers around him. Na’s Pebble history is up and down with four Top-25 (two Top-5s) and three MC. He does have good U.S. Open form with 5/7 cuts made with two top-15s. He’s even playing well recently, with four of five made cuts, two Top-10s and a win at Colonial. He’s 31st in my model with Top-20 rankings in both Poa greens and os fantastic with difficult fairways. (Projected Ownership 12%, Exposure 23%)
Henrik Stenson – $7,600
Vegas – 56/1
DGWR – 25th
Outside of the lack of experience of playing at PB, Stenson (20th ranked) Stenson has good open history and even better recent form. With one of the best cut percentages in the field and a red-hot approach, Henrik has been on fire lately. He’s always been lethal with his 3-wood, which is perfect here with so many players clubbing down. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 20%)
Matt Walace – $7,600
Vegas – 83/1
DGWR – 43
Wallace (28th) was a surprise find in my model’s Top-30. Vegas has his odds falling from 74th at the beginning of pricing, to 83rd now, and Datagolf has him 17 spots lower than his OWGR score, but I trust my model. I see him as nothing but a GPP play with his overall lack of experience. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 10%)
Brandt Snedeker – $7,500
Vegas – 45/1
DGWR – 34
He’s essentially Webb Simpson for $200 cheaper. He has two first-place finishes and a fourth at Pebble Beach. He has five Top-15 finishes in the U.S. Open out of the last nine times with three Top-20 finishes at the Canadian Open, Colonial and the PGA Championship. I dont like chalk but I think it’s worth it this week. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 27%)
Shane Lowry – $7,500
Vegas – 53/1
DGWR – 33rd
Lowry has been playing very well lately with three Top-10s in his last three event. What makes Lowry good is his around the green game and putting. Of note, Poa is Lowry’s worst putting surface. He’s essentially Top-10 or MC in U.S. Opens. He seems to be getting a little chalkier than I like but I’ll look for him to have one more good week before he falls back off a bit. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 19%)
Ian Poulter – $7,500
Vegas – 104/1
DGWR – 29th
I don’t understand Vegas’ odds for Poulter (38th), as it seems too low to me. If I could place bets, I would be all over this number. He’s got solid U.S. history and recent results are equally as encouraging. BHis Pebble Beach results leave something to be desired though. Poulter does tend to throw up that bigger number and that will happen this week for sure, as this course is brutal. The best part of his game is his putter, where he is averaging .6 strokes on the greens. Coincidentally, he’s more than twice as productive on Poa greens. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 18%)
Graeme McDowell – $7,300
Vegas – 85/1
DGWR – 88th
This might be a mistake but I’m riding the wave. He’s the reigning U.S. Open winner at Pebble Beach and that alone puts him in play. Graeme came in at 23rd in my rankings this week. He not only has the win, but three other Top-20s at the Open with a couple of Top-20 finishes at Pebble as well. With a 91 percent cut-rate and an overall putting game, I’ll have more than enough shares of McDowell. (Projected Ownership 9%, Exposure 14%)
Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,300
Vegas – 147/1
DGWR – 35th
RCB doesn’t have a whole lot going for him right now outside of his two Top-30 finishes at Pebble. His biggest strength right now is his 90 percent cut rate, so he is maybe a cash-only play. His around the green play has really stepped up lately. My model is puting him at 22nd right now, perhaps it knows something great is coming for Bello. Let’s hope he finds it sooner rather than later. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 14%).
$6500 – $7200
Jim Furyk – $7,200
Vegas – 104/1
DGWR – 31st
Old man Furyk is as steady as they come and if I was playing cash, he would definitely be in my lineup. He doesn’t have the win equity as some of his other companions in this range but there is plenty in his favor. Furyk’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, has fantastic Green In Regulation numbers and has a great ability to dodge bogies. That’s why he’s #7 in my overall model and will be chalky but that’s okay. There are plenty of pivots in this range to get off the chalk if you wish, but again for cash only, he’s a lock in my mind. (Projected Ownership 17%, Exposure 17%)
Billy Horschel – $7,200
Vegas – 134/1
DGWR – 28th
Billy Ho has solid recent performances with three Top-25s in his last three events and he tends to always show up at the Open. He has four of five made cuts in this tournament with three Top-25 showings. His game is running on his irons right now with Horschel gaining more than one stroke over the last 10 rounds. Coming in strong with a 14th ranking in my overall model, I’ll make sure to have double the field in ownership, especially if it stays projected under 10 percent. (Projected Ownership 7%, Exposure 14%)
Tyrrell Hatton – $7,200
Vegas – 111/1
DGWR – 42nd
Hatton(24th) has an all-around T2G game, gaining strokes in each area. One of the better links players in the field, he’s a favorite of mine to land in the Top-20 this week, despite the lack of Pebble Beach experience. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 20%)
Lucas Glover – $7,000
Vegas – 138/1
DGWR – 27th
Another mispriced player according to Vegas, I’ll surely hop on with former winner here at the U.S. Open, though it was a decade ago. With a seventh and 11th finish here over his last two trips to Pebble Beach and solid recent form, he’s one of the models favorite golfers this week at 12th overall. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 17%)
Zach Johnson – $7,000
Vegas – 159/1
DGWR – 69th
As recently as last year, he was playing at much a higher level than he is now, but that won’t stop me from having some shares. This is basically a GPP money-saver as it’s all banking on him regaining some old U.S. Open form. He’s ranked as my 25th overall and I feel that might be a little high, but I cannot tell you how many times I dropped a guy who I thought would flame out only to Top-30 and super-low ownership. I’ve learned to just play the name. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 12%)
Keegan Bradley – $7,000
Vegas – 131/1
DGWR – 46th
He didn’t exactly go Full Keegan last week but it was disappointing nonetheless after leading through the first 18 holes. Bradley’s (26th) OTT and APP are always popping, but it’s his short game that leads him to trouble. At this price point, you’re just looking for a cut maker. He certainly has more risk built into him but with no MDF. If he can get past the cut, he could get hot and score you some points when others are scrambling to make par. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 13%)
Byeong Hun An – $6,900
Vegas – 179/1
DGWR – 49th
Always a great golfer until he hits the green, especially Poa (-1.56 Strokes), Yikes! In his last event at The Memorial, he finished 17th with a POSITIVE putting performance, for once. If he can keep that momentum rolling with the flat stick at $6,900, he will be a steal! GPP ONLY!! (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 13%)
Charles Howell III – $6,900
Vegas – 169/1
DGWR – 41st
I cannot tell you the last time CH3 performed well. This is another bet on talent situation and price for that matter. He still boasts an around the green game, but that’s about it. This is really putting my trust to the test, as he’s ranked 21st in my model this week. Play at your own risk. (Projected Ownership 4%, Exposure 10%)
Danny Willett – $6,800
Vegas – 150/1
DGWR – 106th
A former major winner that’s starting to gain some of his prior form with three cuts made in a row and finished inside the Top-30 and Top-10. This will be the man that I put more stock in than I should and if I fail this week, it will be because of him. But oh well, let it ride for the 50th-ranked golfer in my model!!! (Projected Ownership 7%, Exposure 18%)
Players that I like I am not using:
Erik Van Rooyen – $6900
Chez Reavie – $6900
Viktor Hovland – $6700
Last guy out of my player pool…Jason Day!!
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