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The MLB Sweet Spot – Monday May 20th

We had a great Sunday here at the Sweet Spot as we hit on 5 of our 6 bets. I then followed that up on the Win Daily Sirius show with the San Diego Padres +105 ML. That closed out a solid week of betting and we look to turn that up this week as we head into Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start to summer. The DFS market was also hot as we hit on Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer and Tanner Bibee who all scored 26.75 DK points or more and finished in the top 5 of SP’s.

Both Jared and I will be posting articles during the week and have a central focus on both MLB betting and DFS. Today is my turn and I will provide you a centralized focus on betting, props and DFS plays.

GAME BETS & PLAYER PROPS

HOUSTON ASTROS -205 vs LOS ANGELES ANGELS

I don’t normally take the heavy favorites in my betting column. But tonight feels like one of those nights that I can plug one in and be content with the results. The Astros are cooking right now, as they are winners in 9 of their last 11 games. And they hand the ball to their ace tonight, Framber Valdez, who is on his own mini-hot streak. This will be his 5th start since returning from the IL. The first two starts were a mixed bag of results. But his last two have been lights out as he’s allowed just 2 ER’s over 14 innings of work thus lowering his season ERA from 3.97 to 2.95. And he’s had recent success against the Angels as he struck out 25 LAA batters last year in just 14.1 innings.

Add to that the Astros bats have been red hot as well. Over the past 10 games, they are first in batting average (0.293) and second in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. That’s not good news for Angels SP Reid Detmers who has allowed 26 ER’s in his last 5 starts (8.56 ERA). And Los Angeles has lost all five of those games.

MINNESOTA TWINS -165 at WASHINGTON NATIONALS

There is one thing for certain tonight in DC, one of these teams will snap their long losing streak. Outside of the Oakland Athletics eight-game losing streak, the Twins and Nationals carry the longest consecutive days of losing. The Twins are fresh off a winless week as they were swept by the Yankees and Guardians. While the Nationals head into tonight’s contest after being swept by the Phillies which was on the heels of losing 2 straight to the White Sox.

But based on the pitching delta, I’m betting the Twins will be able to put a halt to their 6-game skid. Pablo Lopez has been solid once again this year for Minnesota. In his 3 starts during the month of May, all quality starts, he has a 2.41 ERA and 21 K’s in 18.1 innings. On the other hand, Nationals SP Mitchell Parker is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in the month of May and has struck out just 11 in 16 innings of work.

And take this for what it’s worth, but the Twins have thrived in the road favorite role as they 8-1 in that spot.

DOG OF THE DAY: BALTIMORE ORIOLES +105 at ST LOUIS CARDINALS

Underdog to Save the Day!

The Orioles travel to St Louis tonight to take on the Cardinals. And because of the pitching matchup, they find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being an underdog. Which is great for us, and hopefully bad for the books. The Orioles are 8-1 ML as an underdog this season. And they are 6-0 as a road underdog which is the exact spot they’re in tonight.

While Cardinals SP Sonny Gray started the year hot, he’s been lit up in his last 2 outings by allowing 11 ER’s in 11 innings of work. And the main reason for that is the long ball as he’s surrendered four homers in his last two starts. As chance has it, guess who leads the league in home runs? That’s right, it’s Baltimore with 68. So in a battle of birds, we’ll back the orange ones to make the most noise tonight and bring home a W and cash in our pockets.

DOG OF THE DAY #2: NEW YORK METS +110 at CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

PLAYER PROPS

FRAMBER VALDEZ over 5.5 K’s (-135 DK)

The Angels have the 10th highest K rate in baseball at 23.5%. And their most recent form, looking at the past 10 games, has them at 23.2%. So they’re treading water in that category which shows little volatility in their performance. And that’s good news tonight as Valdez gets to face a lineup that has high K potential. As noted in the Houston paragraph above, Valdez faced LAA twice last year and has outcomes of 12 K’s and 13 K’s. He’s also coming off his best strikeout performance of the year where he struck out eight A’s batters.

PABLO LOPEZ over 17.5 outs (-170)

There is some juice here, but our numbers say there is value in this play. First off, Lopez has pitched at least 6 innings in all three of his starts in May. And he’s averaged 98 pitches per outing in those games. But what really adds confidence in this number is the current state of the Nats. They are batting just 0.196 over the past 10 games and have scored just 30 runs (28th in the league).

TBD

PLUS PROP OF THE DAY – TBD

We’ll often add a home run prop or something valued over +200 in this spot. For these bets, plan anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5 units.

DFS – 6:40PM SLATE

We’re looking at the 6:40pm slate today as that has the largest pool of games with 8.

Top Pitchers to Target:

PABLO LOPEZ ($9500 DK):

For all the reasons previously stated, his sub 3.00 ERA this month and the Nats woeful bats of late, we love Lopez tonight in Washington. I’ll also add that his 28.7% K rate matches up well with Washington tonight as they have risen to the top half of the league in strikeout rate due to their recent plate struggles. And Lopez’s 3.93 ERA is met with a 2.87 SIERA showing he’s headed towards positive regression.

FRAMBER VALDEZ ($8800 DK):

We’re getting a fully stretched out Valdez tonight against the Angels. Yet, he’s still under $9K which is good news for our DFS lineups. In his last two starts, he’s averaged 100 pitches while posting a 1.28 ERA. While the Angels bats have been good of late, sitting in the top 10 in most major categories this month, Valdez’s recent spike in velocity and uptick in K’s makes us confident in his potential.

OTHER SP’S IN MY PLAYER POOL: YOSHI YAMAMOTO ($10,500 DK), TAJ BRADLEY ($8000 DK)

Value Pitchers to Target:

REESE OLSON ($6900 DK)

It’s crazy to think that a starting pitcher with a 2.09 ERA over eight starts is winless on the season. And that is the case with Reese Olson as he brings in an 0-4 record to tonight’s contest with the Royals. What also catches my eye is that his 2.09 ERA is met with a 2.56 FIP, showing his pitching outcome from an earned run standpoint, has been inline with his performance. While the Royals have been winning of late (7-3 in last 10 games) they are just 22nd in wOBA and 24th in wRC+ in that same stretch. At this price, Olson is definitely worth a look and has the potential to return 3x value on his salary.

HONORABLE MENTION: JOE ROSS ($5800 DK)

Top Stacks to Target:

DODGERS:

I’m not sure what the Diamondbacks are doing tonight but they have RP Joe Mantiply scheduled to open the game against LA tonight. It is Slade Cecconi’s turn in the rotation but he struggled in his last outing versus Cincinatti so it looks like he’ll come in after Mantiply and operate in relief. As for Mantiply, he killed my D’backs bet against Detroit on Saturday by coming in and blowing a 2-run lead. So I’m already jaded but that wouldn’t have stopped me from rostering Dodger bats tonight. We’ll obviously need to start with the best hitter in the MLB in 2024, Shohei Ohtani. But there’s some room to get cheap with Lux, Pages, and Rojas. I’ll also consider, Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez tonight depending on lineup construction.

ASTROS:

As mentioned above, Houston is the hottest hitting team in the Majors over the past two weeks. The hottest of all is Kyle Tucker who has 7 home runs and is batting 0.326 over the past 13 games. In that same stretch, Jake Meyers in batting 0.405 and Jeremy Pena has a 0.333 mark. So add those three to our stack and look at Altuve and Dubon. You can never go wrong with Alvarez or Bregman but it’ll be hard to fit them all in. One note to consider, Jonathan Singleton is 2 for 2 in his career of Detmers. Both were home runs. Therefore, keep an eye to see if he’s in the lineup as well.

Now that you finished reading the MLB Sweet Spot article make sure to check out MLB Lineup Optimizer and our YouTube Channel which keeps you in tune with all of our shows.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the Win Daily Sports family.

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