Tag:

Tiger Woods

PGA DFS Picks: U.S. Open at Winged Foot

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 2020 U.S Open at Winged Foot and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Major tournament field of 144 Golfers
Cut: Top 60 and ties
No Brooks Koepka
The course: Winged Foot Golf Club (Mamaroneck, NY)
- Par 70: 7,469 yards – A.W. Tillinghast design (1923)
- Poa Annua Greens
- Brutal rough, tight fairways, oppressive length and scary greens – the bloodbath superfecta
- The course has hosted some memorable U.S. Opens, including “The Massacre” in 1974 (won by Hale Irwin at +7) and Phil Mickelson’s epic collapse in 2006 (I was right on the 18th fairway watching it) where Geoff Ogilvy prevailed with a +5 tournament score
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Fairways Gained, Proximity (200+ yards), Bogey Avoidance

Before we get into the picks this week, let’s talk a little about how this is not your typical tournament. Taking into account the season change, the conditions, the unfamiliarity with the course for the majority of field, and the history of U.S. Opens at this storied venue, we could see the winning score in the +5 to +8 range.

That means we don’t necessarily need a slew of birdie makers; the course has only one hole that’s considered a “birdie hole” by the players – the 321-yard Par 4 6th hole. We certainly want talented golfers who can hit fairways, fly in some under-the-wind approaches like D.J., scramble with the best of them and make some putts, but we don’t need to emphasize things like Birdie or Better% and Opportunities Gained.

I think exceedingly poor putters are out, and really awesome putters might be too because it’s nearly impossible to gain a lot of strokes with the flat stick this week given the terrifying green complexes.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – DJ is the hottest golfer on tour and has the exact set of skills to dominate here. We’ve learned a lot about his mettle the past several weeks and he’s ranked No. 7 overall in my model, with Fairways Gained being the only stat category where he’s outside the Top 10.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – We’ve watched Rahm (who’s No. 3 in my model) wrap up the season with of the best values in the “All-around Ranking” in tour history, and he continues to be a presence on the leaderboard in the toughest tournaments. The possibility of a meltdown scares me a bit, but I do think he’s one of the top three to watch.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory will be in a bunch of my GPPs along with alternating combos of DJ, Morikawa and Webb Simpson, but that approach means I’ll have to roster some punts, which is fine. I’m incredibly excited about the prospect of seeing this man play this course under these conditions, because he could lap the field.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – The sticker shock could keep some folks off his DFS coattails, and his elite ball-striking could carry him into position on Sunday. He’s going to be tough to fit with some of the other studs, but I’m making it a priority.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (large-field GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Webb Simpson

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger actually finishes second in my mixed model (Webb is first), and he’s really been playing well since the reopening, when he notched a win at Colonial, added a T2 and a pair of third place finishes.

Tiger Woods (DK $8,600) – It’s a little crazy that Tiger – who knows how to make pars on tough golf courses and grind out Top 10s – isn’t getting more love this week. His 2006 MC at Winged Foot following the death of his father looms large as a narrative, and I’ll be rooting for him.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,500) – On the other end of the feel-good spectrum, we have Reed,who will undoubtedly call upon the Prince of Darkness to keep him out of the rough and summon another U.S. Open Top 15 finish. I don’t know if he can win, but he can contend.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,000) – Fitzpatrick (No. 10 overall in my mixed model this week) is famous for keeping his ball in play and his elite short game, which he’ll need to save par on some of these tough Par 4s. The wispy Englishman finished second on tour in SG: Putting, and while he’s been inconsistent at times, he seems to show up for majors.

Harris English (DK $7,900) – A shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year, English is elite when it comes to avoiding bogeys and three-putts, he’s Top 15 in both Prox. 200+ and P4: 450-500, and he’s sixth in my overall model. I’ll be at like 50 percent, and he’s my favorite player looming around $8K.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7,700) – What Wolff lacks in experience he makes up for with talent and a flair for the dramatic. I’ll only be using him in my balanced GPP builds and without high expectations, but I like the price and it’s a tournament where the X-factor could come into play.

Also consider: Tony Finau (GPP), Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen (cash)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Brendan Todd (DK $7,400) – I honestly think Todd could be the best golfer in this price range considering his steady play this past year and his growing confidence at tougher venues. A good bet for a Top 20 and a guy who could surprise on Sunday.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,300) – Poulty finished in the top 10 here in 2006, but my model is unkind to him. I’ll emphasize experience over the data for him, because he’s a survivor – and just the type of golfer I want rounding out some of my GPPs.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $6,900) – Van Rooyen doesn’t normally get a lot of press, and when he has, he’s disappointed with some less-than-stellar play and some ill-timed MCs. But this might be the spot to roll him out, where his strengths (SG:BS and approaches from 200+ out) will help tremendously.

Chez Reavie (DK $6,800) – I’ve run a few different models emphasizing higher percentages among the stat categories we discussed, and Chez finished among the Top 10 in all of them. He’s a sneaky good player and he won’t be intimidated by the venue or the carnage he sees along the way.

Kevin Streelman (DK $6,700) – Another darling of my models, Streelman’s form has been pedestrian at best lately. But he’s No. 16 overall in my model and I trust his ability to hit fairways, avoid the majority of trouble and post some decent scores.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,700) – Hubbard is also among the Top 20 in my model this week, and I’ve been impressed by his game in 2020. He’s made the cut in nine of his last ten tournaments and he’s pretty cheap.

More value golfers to consider: Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Ryan Palmer, Rasmus Hojgaard, Brandon Wu

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $6,500) – His MC at the PGA will keep the masses from rostering him, but this is talented golfer who could easily finish among the Top 25.

Max Homa (DK $6,400) – Homa gets love from my mixed model (No. 14 overall) with solid ball-striking numbers and excellent ranks in avoiding bogeys and navigating long par 4s. He’ll be in 20-25% of my GPPs.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,400) – Dahmen has the overall game to finish in the Top 20 and he’s done that a lot in 2020. Plus, he’s just too cheap given his upside.

Additional punts: Mike Lorenzo-Vera (GPP), Lanto Griffin (GPP), Robert Macintyre, Romain Langasque, Andy Sullivan

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at TPC Boston

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust Open helping you find some winning teams in DraftKings GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of 124 Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field
The course: TPC Boston
Par 71: 7,308 yards – Arnold Palmer design and Gil Hanse/Brad Faxon redesign
Penn 4-A Bentgrass Greens (Bentgrass fairways as well)
Smaller-than-average greens
- Favorable weather expected, so no major imbalance in the draw
- First time Northern Trust is at TPC Boston, so course history should be for Dell Technologies, which has been hosted at this course
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Fairways Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – Longer hitters tend to fare well here, and Bryson actually notched a victory on this course in 2018 at the Dell Technologies. Without too much penal rough to stymie Bryson if he misses fairways with his accurate blasting approach, Bryson – who may be the best putter among the highest priced players as well – makes for the best high-priced GPP play with winning upside.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,800) – Rory has good course history at TPC Boston, and while he’s playing sub-par golf in comparison to his lofty standards (and the rest of the expensive guys), this should be a comfy place to rebound – as it plays to all his strengths. I may even try to squeeze in a few Rory/Bryson teams with all the capable golfers in the $6,000 to 6,500 range.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,000) – Another top performer with winning upside, Rahm could easily win this thing if he’s firing on all cylinders. Solid ball-striking and a complete short game mean he’s one of my favorite plays in any format.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jason Day (DK $9,300) – Day’s ball striking, putting and overall game look like he’s returning to his form from a few years back, and he’s a great play in all formats. A world-class player with a great attitude, he’s bound to be popular – but I just can’t fade him.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay’s past few tournaments have been marred by poor putting and usually one bad round thrown into the mix. He chekcs all the boxes, so if he can get the putts to roll in, he makes for a great play in single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed $9,000) – He’s definitely going to be popular, so he fits best in cash games – but there’s definitely enough upside to go all-in with him here since he’s striking the ball pretty well.

Tony Finau (DK $8,800) – Finau’s tee-to-green numbers(10th on tour) are excellent this season, and like Bryson, his tendency to mis fairways shouldn’t burn him too badly here. A solid shot at a Top 10 and plenty of winning upside, and one of the only options I really like in the $8-9K range.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – The missed cut at the PGA could keep his ownership low, but we all know how good this guy is. Normally the Englishman in this price range I’m most intrigued by is Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he might struggle here as a first-timer. Hatton is a better ball striker and he finished T12 in 2018 at his TPC Boston debut. At just $8K, he’s going to be hard for me to avoid.

Matthew Wolff (DK $7.900) – The talent and competitiveness of Wolff make him a plausible GPP play with winning upside, but I’d likely stay away from him in cash games, because it’s his first go-round in Boston.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,600) – A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have considered Champ, but a closer look at his improved play around the greens makes me take notice.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash) Tiger Woods (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Paul Casey, Rickie Fowler, Sungjae Im, Abraham Ancer, Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – He feels super risky even with the price drop, but Lowry has the game to finish in the Top 15 or so and continue his playoff dreams. A tough competitor who won’t have to deal with bad weather this week, the Irishman will be among my GPP value plays.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner looks like a much better player every week, and he seems to be getting used to competing against the best. Another guy who is often plagued by one or two bad rounds putting, Varner could be ready to make the jump and stick around for a few playoff weeks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,400) – Redman is rolling lately in the SG: Ball Striking category, and he’s maturing with his short game. There’s clear upside in his game and the mustache seems to be working its magic.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman plays well in stronger fields and has some recently impressive course history (third place in 2017, T21 in 2018), so he’s a solid GPP wild card.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $7,000) – With more top 10 upside and ball-striking ability than many of the other players in this price range, Niemann is a risky pick but could play well here if his putter doesn’t completely abandon him.

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,200) – Another solid ball-striker, Hadwin will make a few of my Rory/Bryson builds so I can find some value in this $7K range. He’s Canadian, so the switch back to Bentgrass should help.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Among this group of players who’ve fared poorly in stronger fields or have seen their game evaporate in recent months, Cauley stands out as a confident player who could fare well at this venue.

More value golfers to consider: Matt Kuchar (Cash), Ryan Palmer (Cash), Joel Dahmen, Max Homa (GPP), Emiiano Grillo (GPP) Kevin Na (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes,

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Talor Gooch (DK $6,500) – He’s a birdie maker with some GPP upside, but the competition makes for tougher sledding. Still – he’s one of the safer options in this depressed price range, so he’s a great choice for all kinds of builds.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,300) – Straka is hitting more greens this year and making more birdies. He’s a risky play (and he missed the cut last week) but we’ve seen him step up his game and the switch back to Bentgrass should help his putting.

Additional GPP punts: Rory Sabbatini, Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Jones, Matthew NeSmith

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA Premium

Insight Sheet: PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the 2020 PGA Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for ove...

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Insight Sheet: The Memorial presented by Nationwide

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at The Memorial. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

**I’m going hard with stars and scrubs approach this week. Soft pricing tends to lead to balanced builds.**

Players priced $10,000 and higher

***These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.***

Rory McIlroy $10,700 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 17%)
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (M5, 17%)

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Xander Schauffele $9,200 (M7, 14%) – Schauffele finished T14 last week at the Workday Charity and is fifth in the field in strokes gained total over the last six weeks. With a T14 last year at The Memorial, Schauffele isn’t only a safe bet to make the cut but could be in the final pairing come Sunday.

Jon Rahm $9,300 (M12, 17%) – The talent has always been there and last Sunday, Rahm shot -8 to finish T27. That finish has catapulted his ownership but I don’t mind. This week I’ll be very overweight on Rahm this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,400 (M13, 15%) – Two top 20 finishes in his last two events out and three top 15 finishes at The Memorial, Matsuyama is one of the favorites. He started out strong last week, but his putter failed on the weekend. The speed of the greens should help a little with the flat stick and Matsuyama could find himself with another top 15 finish.

****Tiger Woods $9,000 (M17, 22%) – Ownership is just scary on him. I know he’s Tiger, but if he falters on his official return since the break, it’s a huge leverage spot****

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,400 (M11, 11%) – It must be the name, that keeps pulling me back. Every other week, Reed burns me but when he gets hot, he can run through a field. Reed has four straight cuts made here at Jack’s place coming in. Reed in 2020 has averaged .74 strokes gained putting, in three of his last four events, he’s lost strokes on the green. If his putter reverts to average, this week could be very good for Reed.

Tony Finau $8,300 (M23, 14%) – He missed the cut last year, but prior he finished with three top 15 in four tries at The Memorial. Not exactly a lock as he’s missed a cut since the restart and hasn’t really payed off his price either. Don’t go overboard but Finau has the talent to compete with the best here.

Sungjae Im $8,200 (M28, 9%) – What has happened to Im? Sungjae was averaging .39 stroked gained on approaches this year before The PLAYERS (1 round). Since then he’s lost strokes in 4/5 tournaments on approach. Im is more of a play on talent, ownership and price.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,100 (M36, 6%) – I’m both surprised and delighted that Fitzpatrick’s ownership is projected so low. He finished T27 last week on the same course. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in four of his last five tournaments with two T15. He made his lone cut at The Memorial last year. I know around the green play comes in and Fitzpatrick isn’t the greatest, but the rest of his game is plenty sharp to overcome that.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Kevin Kisner $7,500 (M18, 3%) – Kisner is an interesting option. On one hand the approach game and to a lesser degree around the green game are important at The Memorial. While Kisner does have a solid all around game, those are his weak points in 2020. On the other, we have a possible sub 5% owned golfer who in his last tournament (Rocket Mortgage) came in third. On top of that has made the cut here four out of the last five years. Those cuts made include TWO top 10 finishes. Kisner isn’t playing as well as in previous years, but he has the goods to surprise people this week.

Joaquim Niemann $7,900 (M25, 16%) – Statistically speaking, Niemann is having his best year of his young career. A world class ball striker, few in the field can compete with his irons. The one problem with Niemann is it seems one part of his game fails him. Charles Schwab (ARG), Travelers (Putter) and Workday (ARG). When it does come together it’s fantastic, RBC (T5). With the inconstant all around game, his ownership is rather high which gives me some pause. At his price though, the upside is tremendous.

Doc Redman $7,600 (M32, 7%) – Speaking of ball strikers, Redman is another elite player with the approach aspect of his game. Despite losing strokes with the wedge and putter the last three weeks, Redman has finished T21, T11 & T21. As we all know putting is the highest varying aspect of one’s game. If his can get his putter hot Redman could find himself in the top 5 this week at The Memorial.

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Brian Harman $7,100 (M21, 1%) – Oh Harman, we meet again. After the RBC I started playing Harman. As I’m sure you know he then proceeded to miss the cut the two following weeks. His game in theory should setup perfect for The Memorial. I’ve said that though for previous weeks and it didn’t matter. He’s coming in with zero traction from the industry, hence the projected ownership. Third time is a charm, right?

Kevin Na $7,200 (M24, 6%) – Na withdrew last tournament with a back injury, a tournament he was somewhat popular. Na has always lost strokes off the tee and with the extra long rough this week it could be an issue. With that said all other facets of his game match up wonderfully at The Memorial. Won’t need much to match the field and an injury risk is always in play, but I’ll take a shot on Mr Na this week.

Lucas Glover $7,100 (M40, 11%) – Another strong iron player, Glover has been getting some love and it makes sense. Since the restart Glover has averaged over a stroke per round in approach and has finished T23, T21, T20 & T21. He also has not missed the cut since 2015 at The Memorial. While his ownership/price ratio goes against my philosophy I’m going go heavy on Glover this week and double the field in ownership.

Brendan Steele $7,100 (M60, 3%) – Steele had a great tournament last week despite the T52 finish. He gained almost a stroke and a half over the field in approach. His problem was the putter, it got cold quick. Losing almost 2 strokes a round is problematic. Now granted Steele has never been a world class putter but his 2020 average is around zero. If the two stroke departure from his putter can regain his 2020 form I could imagine Steele landing inside the top 20.

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

*****Won’t have more than 10% of any of these guy in my 150 max*****

Nick Taylor $6,900 (M20, 2%)
Troy Merritt $6,600 (M37, 3%)
Talor Gooch $6,500 (M39, 4%)
Matthias Schwab $6,400 (M51, 2%)
Max Homa $$6,800 (M52, 4%)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $6,800 (M79, 1%)
Tyler Duncan $6,300 (M88, 2%)

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

******None of my plays in this section will ever be at 10K and above or 6K and lower.******

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M3, 23%)
Webb Simpson $9,600 (M4, 15%)
Daniel Berger $8,700 (M9, 17%)
Abraham Ancer $8,500 (M8, 21%)
Paul Casey $7,900 (M19, 16%)
Kevin Streelman $7,600 (M16, 16%)
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M22, 11%)
Adam Hadwin $7,400 (M14, 9%)
Corey Conners $7,400 (M57, 7%)
Harris English $7,300 (M29, 8%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for The Memorial. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

NOTE: The PGA DFS prices are pretty soft in the secondary tier, so it should be easy to build teams that look good and have monster upside. Focus on single entry GPPs and low-price MMEs.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller,much stronger tournament field of 133 golfers (including 48 of the world’s top50 players), but more than normal (usually 120) at the Memorial
Secondof two consecutive events being played at Muirfield Village, along with last week’sWorkday Charity Open
Firsttime since 1957 the same course will host consecutive tournament events
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play theweekend (about 49%)
Thecourse: Muirfield Village
7,456 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design
Bentgrass Greens
Rough will be a little longer than last weekand greens will be faster than last week’s event
Wider fairways should still help somelonger hitters
Firestone CC and TPC Sawgrass have winnercorrelation
BrysonDeChambeau (2018 Memorial winner) back in the field after skipping last week,and Tiger Woods is playing for the first time since February
Defending champ: Patrick Cantlay (2019 Memorial:-19)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach;SG: Ball Striking, Par 4s Gained (450-500), GIR, Bogey Avoidance, Birdie orBetter %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,100) – If the roughgives him fits, he could struggle, but it’s hard to argue with the success he’shad harnessing his newfound distance. He won here in 2018 and could do itagain.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,300) – DJ has six top 20s at the Memorial with aT8 last year, and he’s only three weeks removed from an impressive victory atthe Travelers. I’ll be using him as a low-owned GPP plug-n-play.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,000) – Morikawa spent most of Sunday at Muirfield knocking down flagsticks and ended up walking away a victor in a playoff against Justin Thomas. There’s no way we can fade him here.

Patrick Cantlay (DK 9,800) – If we used plenty of Cantlay last week, there’s no reason we shouldn’t go right back to the well after his T7. He’s well-equipped to finish in the Top 5 this week and should be a leaderboard presence come Sunday.

Victor Hovland (DK $9,500) – A few late mistakes cost Hovland a chance at victory, but he was right in the mix all week long and remains one of the better T2G players in the tournament, leading the field in SG: Off the Tee.

Also consider: Justin Thomas, RoryMcIlroy (GPP), Webb Simpson (Cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jon Rahm (DK $9,300) – Rahm is anabsolute steal at $9,300 given his upside, though form and course fit areconcerns. He works in all formats this week and provides one of the bettervalues in the $9K range.

XanderSchauffele (DK $9,200) – Schauffele and Rahm both provide some salary relief from the toptier while maintaining the same upside, so I’ll have some shares. Xander wasquiet lats week but finished with a respectable T14.

Tiger Woods (DK $9,000) – I probably won’t deploy Tiger in cash games, since there are plenty of safer options at this price point, but I can’t count him out in his search for his record 83rd win, especially without the normal distractions of a gallery.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,800) – We got a good look at what Rickie can do when his game comes together in the third round at the Workday (66), and he’s trending up. It’s hard to go all-in but mixing in some GPP shares makes sense.

AbrahamAncer (DK $8,500) – Ancer’s form is excellent (T14-2-T11 coming outof the break) and he actually tops the tour in SG: APP. Add in the soaringfigures at the key efficiency proximity range (150-175 yards) and we’ve got alive one.

MatthewFitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitz shook off his MC at the Travelers and made the cut at the Workday,and the week-to-week changes to the course (faster greens, longer rough) shouldhelp his strengths and set him apart as an even more favorable option.

Jason Day (DK $8,000) – Day had his best tournament since February’s fourth-place finish in Pebble Beach, and the price hasn’t yet come up. A classic risk-reward GPP play with Top 5 (and winning) upside.

Matt Kuchar (DK $8,000) – His form is somewhat questionable following a pair of ho-hum finishes (T41-T39) since the uncharacteristic missed cut at the Charles Schwab, but Kuchar is affordable and has had success at Muirfield with a pair of T4s in 2016 and 2017.

Paul Casey (DK $7,900) – Casey is an enormous risk despite still not missing a cut in 2020, but I love him as a low-owned GPP salary saver given his rankings in the WinDaily model.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, DanielBerger, Tony Finau, Joaquin Niemann, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, KevinStreelman, Doc Redman, Ian Poulter

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,500) – Sabbs comes at a huge discount in this loaded field, and while he’s yet to break through here, he’s not a terrible cash game play.

CameronChamp (DK $7,400) – Champ is at the other end of the spectrum, as he has winning GPPupside but shouldn’t be deployed in cash games.

ShaneLowry (DK $7,200) – He’s 2-for-2 at the Memorial and his game fits this venue. I lovethe price and will be using plenty of Lowry this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,100) – There’s really a ton of value out there in the $7K range, which makes building teams a lot of fun this week. Glover checks all the boxes this week and comes in sporting excellent form, with four straight Top 25s since the restart.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,000) – Wallace is my sleeper play this week and should maintain low ownership. You won’t have to go overboard to stay ahead of the field, and he’s in good position to make the cut.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – Homa missed the cut again last week, but he’s at least apologetic. I’ll be using him again in the hops that he can make some putts, as he finished T37 in his Memorial debut in 2019.

Zach Johnson (DK $6,700) – ZJ is just way too cheap given his cut-making upside, though he’s more of a cash game play. I don’t expect him to win, but a Top 25 could be in the cards.

Bud Cauley (DK $6,600) – Cauley has been all over the place here (T9-113-T25-T38 in his last four) and has missed three straight cuts since the Charles Schwab, but I’m using him in a handful of large-field GPPs.

More value golfers forGPPs: Billy Horschel, Adam Hadwin, Corey Conners, Nick Taylor, Maverick McNealy,Sepp Straka, Graeme McDowell, Troy Merritt, Bernd Wiesberger

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Jason Dufner (DK $6,500) – He finished T7 last year and won the Memorial in 2017 – selling points for this enigmatic golfer among the bottom tiers.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,300) – The stronger field is a tougher test, but Norlander’s recent form justifies using him in stud-scrub builds.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – I’m not the only one who likes him this week, but Duncan is one of a few solid golfers under $6,500 who could surprise.

Additional punts: Branden Grace, Harry Higgs, Tom Hoge, Andrew Putnam

Make sure to check out more PGA content over at WinDailySports.com/golf and follow us on twitter @WinDailySports! You can ask us questions in our Expert Chat on Discord free for 3 days!

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

stephenbrown764@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

The Match: Champions for Charity Event will be played between Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady tees off at 2pm EST on May 24th live on TNT.

Tiger/Phil Brady/Manning – Sia’s picks and plays for the event this weekend

The Match will be a match-play event, meaning each hole will be an independent contest. The format will be four-ball on the front nine (each player will play his own ball, and the best ball wins the hole) and Brady and Manning will get three handicap strokes on the nine. The back nine will be a Modified Alternate Shot format (everyone will tee off and the players will alternate playing the ball they choose).

This will be a fun EVENT for charity and give us ENTERTAINMENT much like the match Phil and Tiger played last November. If you’re looking to throw a few dollars on “The Match” I have you covered. Keep in mind that this is ultimately a charity event, so it may not be the spot to throw down the mortgage, but as you will see below, I think I’ve found a couple of angles worth taking.

Shop for the best line! After checking a couple of our favorite books, I saw some disparity between what you can get in terms of odds. So if there is a side you’re leaning to heavily, make sure to get the line you want!

I like Tiger and Peyton in this event. Tiger is better than Phil and Peyton is better than Tom Brady by approximately two strokes. Brady has also been in the midst of moving teams and cities, while Peyton has been presumably taking it easy, which likely includes several golf outings.

Tiger/Peyton v. Phil/Tom
-186 v. +160
-200 v +160
-220 v. +175

Most birdies – Tiger v. Phil (Tiger -145)
If you’re looking for a fun sweat that will last the entire match, this might be the bet for you. Phil is no stranger to going for the birdie, but I suspect Tiger will be locked in for most of the match as he is technically coming off a loss to Phil last November.

Woods and Manning to Win Hole #10 (-135)
Woods and Manning to Win Hole #11 (-135)

If you’re putting down a few bucks check out some of the lines over at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The front nine is likely to be the more playful nine. Once the golfers make the turn, it will truly be a team effort with the modified alternate shot format, and this is where you are likely to see the better golfers prevail. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tiger and Manning are trailing going into the back nine and then start to turn on the intensity. I like them to lock in for the first true team holes.

BallStreet Trading

Our friends over at BallStreet will be running a real-time market for “The Match.”

There will be both a free contest and a paid entry (no rake) contest for players to join. We recommend entering both as you have twice the opportunity to win a fairly nice cash prize considering it’s free and a low entry format.

Free contest prizes will be $20 to everyone in the top 10 with $2 prizes given out to the rest of the top 20%.

Paid entry will be $10 (no rake) with a $100 prize given to everyone in the top 10%.

Markets have been created for each team and trade based on the win probability as decided by the market. Remember there are no outside APIs, data or models creating the pricing. Only the other players in the market.

BallStreet has IPO’d the match in line with current implied odds of around 2:1 in favor of Woods and Manning. Markets opened with Woods and Manning at §65 and Mickelson and Brady §35.

The biggest factor will be how well Manning and Brady are on the day. Manning has a listed handicap of 6.4 while Brady is listed at 8.1. Couple this with the different aspects to the match (5th hole teams must only just a single club) and we have the chance for almost anything to happen.

The early trading seems to be buying up Mickelson and Brady looking for value but after tee off Sunday the real market begins. If you are planning on watching golf this weekend BallStreet could be a great compliment giving you a chance to check out one of the newest and most innovative startups in the space while winning a little money for your trouble.

Make sure to download the BallStreet app and follow along on their social medias all weekend!
Twitter @BallStreetApp
Apple App Store
Google Play
Web App
Desktop

And make sure to pick some over/unders at Monkey Knife Fight!

If you have any questions make sure to hit me up on Twitter @SiaNejad or jump in our FREE Expert Discord Chat. Read more of my articles over at Win Daily Sports!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

On this Win Daily Show Sia (@SiaNejad) and Michael (@michaelrasile1) discuss this weekends Charity Golf “Event” between Tiger, Tom, Phil, and Peyton dubbed “The Match.” Sia gives us some bets for the lead up and the strategies he’s looking to employ during the event. Hint: this is for entertainment make sure you’re not betting too much, shop your lines, and bet live!

Rich Masana (@JFan303) comes on to tell us about the picks and plays he’s liking for this weeks Bundesliga (German Soccer) Matches. He made us money last week, so listen to him.

Sia and Michael finish off the show with some NFL News that may effect betting and fantasy line up next year. How will the new onside kick rule change betting lines? Does Dak sign a deal? Devonta Freeman to the Eagles? Will Josh Gordon be fantasy relevant this coming year?! No, probably not. We also have a few props that Sia likes for which QB starts for the Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots.

Remember to shop your lines -> DraftKings | FanDuel

Check out Rich’s article going over his Bundeliga Picks and Plays -> https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/

Listen to the show below and remember to subscribe, rate, and review.

You can also check out the Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundesliga DFS, NFL Props on these platforms below.
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

Hop on our Free Expert Discord Chat -> https://discord.com/invite/QsK3HJs

Make sure to follow Win Daily!
https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
https://twitter.com/windailysports
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q
https://www.twitch.tv/windailysports

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Range: The Genesis Open

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour is in California as the players face off at the Genesis Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course: Riviera CC ( Pacific Palisades, CA )
Par: 71
Length: 7,322 yards
Fairways: Kikuyu
Greens: Poa
Past five winners: ’19 JB. Holmes (-14), ’18 B. Watson (-12), ’17 D. Johnson (-17), ’16 B. Watson (-15), ’15 J. Hahn (-6)
For a hole by hole breakdown, visit the PGA Tour website here.

Course Breakdown

Since the 1999 season, the Genesis Open is played at the Riveria Country club. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is -12 with a high of -17 and a low of -6. Twelve of the last twenty rounds have rated as a difficult score. Let’s look at some of the top golfers over the last 24 rounds and how they’ve fared with difficult scoring.

The fairways at the Genesis Open are more narrow than tour average, with this in mind we’ll want to focus on golfers who are sharp ball-strikers (like most weeks). Below are the top ten golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Strokes gained putting tends to be a high correlation to success here. Golfers who can perform well on Poa greens could gain an edge on this tough course. The illustration here shows the top golfers over the last 24 rounds.

Here are the golfers that have performed well under all three conditions listed above.

Player Fit – Back End

At the Genesis Open, most of the toughest holes and a few of the easiest holes are the Par 4 450 – 500 yards. Looking for golfers that excel in this range will be a nice spot to start. Between the Par 3s and the longer holes on the Riviera CC, the long irons will play a huge role. Look for golfers that play well between 175 – 200 yards in proximity.

With the smaller greens, GIR should play a big part. For those that miss the greens in regulation, they’ll need to be able to scramble to save par. As usual, Opportunity Gained will be part of the model but unlike most weeks I’m leaning more bogey avoidance over birdie or better.

Here are the combined stats from up above which will represent the golfers below when they’re evenly weighted.

Final Recap for the Genesis Open

Looking for players that have played the course before should be a priority. I’m not saying new timers cannot do well, but according to Datagolf the Riviera CC plays only behind Augusta for course history relevance.

Course Setup
Difficult Scoring
Hard to hit fairways
Poa Greens

Player Efficiencies
Par 4 scoring: 450 – 500 yards
The proximity between 175 – 200 yards
GIR
Scrambling
Opportunity Gained
Bogey Avoidance

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research at the Genesis Open. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stat Source: Fantasy National

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA Premium

Farmers Insurance Open: Insight Sheet

4 years ago

written by

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock for the Farmers Insurance Open. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play...

4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

Farmers Insurance Open: The Range

Patrick Waters 4 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Range is a course breakdown for the upcoming PGA tournament with a DFS perspective. This week the tour stays in California as the players face off at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course(s): Torrey Pines South and North
Par: 72
Length: South – 7,698 yards, North – 7,258 yards.
Greens: Bentgrass with Poa Annua, 4,500 sq ft in size, below tour average.
Fairways: Kikuyu overseeded with Rye. Rough will be at three and a half inches.
Architect: William Bell originally with a redesign in 2001 (Rees Jones) and later the North Course in 2016 (Tom Weiskopf).
For a hole by hole breakdown of the South Course, click here.
For a hole by hole breakdown of the North Course, click here.

Like last week this will be a course rotation. Each golfer will get a turn on both the North and South course for the Farmers Insurance Open. After the cut (Top 65 and ties) on Friday, golfers will play the remaining weekend on the South Course.

Course Breakdown

Last year the FIO played easier than expected and the winning score was in the low 20s. Previous years the top golfer finished between six to 13. I think the scoring comes back down from years past and with that in mind, let’s look at the top 10 golfers who perform well on average to difficult scoring courses.

On the South course more so than the North course golfers will find hitting the fairways to be troublesome. Most of the fairways are narrow than tour average with trees on both sides. Here are the top golfers in the field when it comes to OTT (off the tee) on hard to hit fairways.

Coming off of Bermuda, the field of golfers will have to contest with Bentgrass greens with Poa Annua. Let’s look at some of the best golfers with dealing with the greens here at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Here are the top 10 golfers with all three course conditions factored in.

Player Fit – Back end

North Course – Farmers Insurance Open

The hardest holes on the course are Par 4 between 450 – 500 yards. The easiest holes on the course are the Par 5 between 500 – 550 yards. Being able to avoid bogey on the Par 4 and birdie on the Par 5 will be critical. With the North course playing shorter golfers should have a smaller iron or wedge in their hands for the second shot. Look for golfers who do well between the 150 – 175-yard range for proximity. Birdie or better will be huge on the North course though it gets played only once out of the four days, assuming the golfer makes the cut.

South Course – Farmers Insurance open

This is where the two courses have a similarity. The toughest holes to play on the South course is between 450 – 500 yards on the Par 4. Par 5 also plays as the easiest but they range from 550 – 600 yards. Golfers will have to be able to play the second shot with 200+ yards in most cases. While opportunity gained should always be used, Bogey Avoidance will be getting applied here. Being able to avoid the big numbers will be key to making the cut and advancing on the weekend.

Below is the top 10 golfers with all player traits evenly weighted for the FIO.

Final Recap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

This tournament is the first of the year that we have a truly loaded field of top-end talent. Players that have been high priced over the start of 2020 will see their pricing suppressed greatly outside of the studs. Just because they’re cheap now doesn’t necessarily make them a good value.

Course Setup
Average to difficult scoring conditions
Hard-hitting fairways
Bentgrass with Poa Annua

Player Efficiencies

North Course –
Par 5 500 – 550
Proximity 150 – 175
Birdie or better

South Course –
Par 5 550 – 600
Proximity 200+
Bogey Avoidance

Farmers Insurance Open Overall –
Par 4 450 – 500
Opportunity Gained
Scrambling

Thanks for reading and I hope this article is a great starting place for your DFS research. Look out for the Insight Sheet dropping Wednesday. It will include my personal player pool and reasoning why each golfer was chosen. Also Wednesday night you can find me in the Win Daily Discord helping members with their lineups and last-minute questions.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Stats source: FantasyNational

4 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Tiger Woods

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Players priced $10,000 and higher

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,500

Players priced between $7,400 and $7,000

Punt plays $6,900 and lower

Cash / SE / 3 Max – Core plays

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

BallStreet Trading

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course Breakdown

Player Fit – Back End

Final Recap for the Genesis Open

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY SPORTS Premium Gold RIGHT HERE! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The Basics

Course Breakdown

Player Fit – Back end

North Course – Farmers Insurance Open

South Course – Farmers Insurance open

Final Recap of the Farmers Insurance Open.

While this article, The Range, will remain FREE, the Insight Sheet will require a Premium Gold membership. To make sure you don’t miss out, sign up for our Premium Gold membership right here!

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.