DFS Golf: The Insight Sheet – U.S. Open

237

By Patrick Waters

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Each week, I’ll run through the golfers and select my personal player pool, along with ownership, exposure and key stats that led me to my selections.

$9500 & Up :

Dustin Johnson – $11,300

Vegas – 8/1

DGWR – 1st

Not much to say here because Johnson is the #1 player in the world. His first and only major was the U.S. Open, in addition to having a three-shot lead in 2010 at Pebble Beach before exploding in the final round and losing to Graeme McDowell. DJ is #2 in my overall model and it’s no surprise he’s the favorite. He’s also Top-10 in every course condition model I outlined in my Range article, which you can find on Twitter. Outside of the rough, he’s 17th but that’s still very solid. He’s as safe as anyone in the field to make the cut and he’s one a handful of guys with the ability to win. (Projected Ownership 20-25%, Exposure 35%)

Patrick Cantlay – $10,000

Vegas – 17/1

DGWR – 3rd

Fresh off a win at The Memorial, he brings plenty of momentum into the U.S. Open. As a contender at both The Masters and the PGA Championship earlier this year, he’s looking to repeat his success at Pebble Beach. Unfortunately, this time around, he’s no longer one of the cheap options. DK priced him up as the fifth-highest golfer this week and that makes him not as good of a value as I was hoping for. That won’t be enough to deter me from going heavy on him in this loaded field though. He’s sixth overall in my model and inside the Top-20 in every condition model I have. Outside of DJ, he’ll be my highest-owned golfer. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 33%)

Justin Rose – $9,700

Vegas – 24/1

DGWR – 5th

Mr. Consistency (#10 Overall in the model) has been anything but this year, but that’s not all on him. He lost his caddie because of health reasons, he’s wearing Hawaiian shirts, making commercials and changed clubs, but that might be the least of his worries. His iron game has been fine even after the switch but he just hasn’t been himself. He did show signs at The Memorial shooting though, posting a 63 (-9) in the second round. I believe the old Justin is coming on and I want to be on the train when it first arrives. His recent finishes should suppress his ownership despite being the seventh largest favorite to win according to Vegas odds. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 25%)

Rickie Fowler – $9500

Vegas – 24/1

DGWR – 10th

If there was ever a time to for the saying, “Always the bridesmaid, never the bride”, it’s with Rickie. On paper, he’s everything you could want in a winner this week — eighth in my model, almost Top-15 in nearly every statistic, plenty of experience and second or T2 in every major at some point. His only downside at Pebble would be the Poa greens, where he ranks 35th overall (remember I said ALMOST Top 15 in every stat). I’m a bit of a Rickie homer, but sooner or later, he’s getting his. That’s why I’ll keep playing him until he does just that. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 24%)

$8000 – $9,400

Tommy Fleetwood – $8,900

Vegas – 32/1

DGWR – 16th

Fleetwood has performed supremely at the U.S. Open over the last two years, finishing second and fifth, respectively. The last three events haven’t been his greatest showings with a 48th (PGA Champ), 25th (RBC Heritage) and 36th (The Masters) overall finished but his game should translate well at the U.S. Open. Coming in eighth in my model (Tied with Rickie), he’s led with his ball striking, which ranks 25th overall. You’re getting a possible Top-5 finish at a discount from the top guys and Fleetwood is certainly one of them. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 23%)

Hideki Matsuyama – $8,800

Vegas – 30/1

DGWR – 12th

Will he ever find his putter? I hope this is the week, as he’s ranked third in my Poa model. He also comes in third overall in my model, which makes me think that he will be highly owned despite his putting woes. He played well at the PGA Championship until a disastrous Sunday and his overall form has been trending upwards.

(Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 33%)

Adam Scott – $8,600

Vegas – 29/1

DGWR – 9th

Scott played so well last week at the RBC Canadian Open that in any other week he would have won it (Rory McIlroy just steamrolled the field). The last couple of years haven’t been kind to Adam at the U.S, Open, but he does have four Top-20 finishes. His recent form is really encouraging, with three Top-25 finishes in a row. Scott usually isn’t considered a good putter but has gained .5 strokes over his last 10 rounds and traditionally he’s done better on Poa. He is 17th overall in my model and I think his run of bad plays at the U.S. Open ends this week. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 27%)

Matt Kuchar – $8,500

Vegas – 39/1

DGWR – 13th

Love him or hate him, Kuchar been playing the best golf of his career, finishing 12th or better in four of his last five events. He finished 22nd at Pebble Beach (AT&T Pro-Am) earlier this year and always shows up at the U.S. Open. The last nine times out, he’s only missed the cut once (Shinnecock 2018). In that span, he’s logged five Top-20 finished and has finished as high as sixth. Ranked #1 overall in my model, I’ll make sure to be twice as heavy on him as opposed to the public. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 30%)

Paul Casey – $8,300

Vegas – 45/1

DGWR – 17th

Casey has finished second and eighth over the last two years at Pebble Beach. HHe’s also made the cut in six of his eight U.S. Open appearances, finishing 16th & 26^th . He did burn people recently with a WD and MC when uber chalk, so that should limit his ownership. Now is the time to jump back on and capitalize on that. With the recent bias against Casey, people might forget he had two Top-5 finishes including a win (Valspar) in his last five outings. He comes in at 13th in my overall rankings led by his seventh-ranked ball striking. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 25%)

Bryson DeChambeau – $8,100

Vegas – 47/1

DGWR – 18th

Ah the scientist, where to begin. He hasn’t played well in the last two months with three MCs and does not have great Pebble Beach experience. Still, with all of that, this is more of a play on talent over results. He does have hit-and-miss results at the U.S. Open with two Top-25s and two MCs. I think his form is rounding into shape though and I feel comfortable playing him at his discounted price. In terms of ownership, I have him as my 31st ranked golfer this week. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 13%)

Gary Woodland – $8,000

Vegas – 68/1

DGWR – 20th

He’s just a guy right now. Woodland has been okay at Pebble, okay at the U.S. Open and just okay recently in general but he comes in 29th in my model with his ninth-ranked ball striking. For the money and ownership around this area on DK, you can do much worse than the 20th-ranked player in the world. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 23%)

$7300 – $7900

Sergio Garcia – $7,800

Vegas – 75/1

DGWR – 24th

This is a pure GPP play. You’ll hear how he’s missed eight straight cuts at a major, his poor form and how he has no Pebble experience but don’t let that deter you. This is a bet on pure talent. He does have five Top-25s at the U.S. Open in his last nine attempts. At $7,800, I’ll have a sprinkle. (Projected Ownership 4%, Exposure 7%).

Webb Simpson – $7,700

Vegas – 38/1

DGWR – 6th

Simpson is going to be chalk and for good reason. He came in as runner-up at the RBCCO last week and has made all five cuts in his last five events. In those events, he’s finished 2/29/18/16/5. Yeah, he’s on a heater. He came in 10th last year at the Open and his two other Top-15 finishes including a win. Coming in strong at fourth in my overall model, I will have plenty of Webb this week. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 27%)

Kevin Na – $7,700

Vegas – 88/1

DGWR – 36th

I wonder if Na is being overlooked? His ownership projections would indicate he is, but that may be a result of such strong golfers around him. Na’s Pebble history is up and down with four Top-25 (two Top-5s) and three MC. He does have good U.S. Open form with 5/7 cuts made with two top-15s. He’s even playing well recently, with four of five made cuts, two Top-10s and a win at Colonial. He’s 31st in my model with Top-20 rankings in both Poa greens and os fantastic with difficult fairways. (Projected Ownership 12%, Exposure 23%)

Henrik Stenson – $7,600

Vegas – 56/1

DGWR – 25th

Outside of the lack of experience of playing at PB, Stenson (20th ranked) Stenson has good open history and even better recent form. With one of the best cut percentages in the field and a red-hot approach, Henrik has been on fire lately. He’s always been lethal with his 3-wood, which is perfect here with so many players clubbing down. (Projected Ownership 20%, Exposure 20%)

Matt Walace – $7,600

Vegas – 83/1

DGWR – 43

Wallace (28th) was a surprise find in my model’s Top-30. Vegas has his odds falling from 74th at the beginning of pricing, to 83rd now, and Datagolf has him 17 spots lower than his OWGR score, but I trust my model. I see him as nothing but a GPP play with his overall lack of experience. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 10%)

Brandt Snedeker – $7,500

Vegas – 45/1

DGWR – 34

He’s essentially Webb Simpson for $200 cheaper. He has two first-place finishes and a fourth at Pebble Beach. He has five Top-15 finishes in the U.S. Open out of the last nine times with three Top-20 finishes at the Canadian Open, Colonial and the PGA Championship. I dont like chalk but I think it’s worth it this week. (Projected Ownership 15%, Exposure 27%)

Shane Lowry – $7,500

Vegas – 53/1

DGWR – 33rd

Lowry has been playing very well lately with three Top-10s in his last three event. What makes Lowry good is his around the green game and putting. Of note, Poa is Lowry’s worst putting surface. He’s essentially Top-10 or MC in U.S. Opens. He seems to be getting a little chalkier than I like but I’ll look for him to have one more good week before he falls back off a bit. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 19%)

Ian Poulter – $7,500

Vegas – 104/1

DGWR – 29th

I don’t understand Vegas’ odds for Poulter (38th), as it seems too low to me. If I could place bets, I would be all over this number. He’s got solid U.S. history and recent results are equally as encouraging. BHis Pebble Beach results leave something to be desired though. Poulter does tend to throw up that bigger number and that will happen this week for sure, as this course is brutal. The best part of his game is his putter, where he is averaging .6 strokes on the greens. Coincidentally, he’s more than twice as productive on Poa greens. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 18%)

Graeme McDowell – $7,300

Vegas – 85/1

DGWR – 88th

This might be a mistake but I’m riding the wave. He’s the reigning U.S. Open winner at Pebble Beach and that alone puts him in play. Graeme came in at 23rd in my rankings this week. He not only has the win, but three other Top-20s at the Open with a couple of Top-20 finishes at Pebble as well. With a 91 percent cut-rate and an overall putting game, I’ll have more than enough shares of McDowell. (Projected Ownership 9%, Exposure 14%)

Rafa Cabrera Bello – $7,300

Vegas – 147/1

DGWR – 35th

RCB doesn’t have a whole lot going for him right now outside of his two Top-30 finishes at Pebble. His biggest strength right now is his 90 percent cut rate, so he is maybe a cash-only play. His around the green play has really stepped up lately. My model is puting him at 22nd right now, perhaps it knows something great is coming for Bello. Let’s hope he finds it sooner rather than later. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 14%).

$6500 – $7200

Jim Furyk – $7,200

Vegas – 104/1

DGWR – 31st

Old man Furyk is as steady as they come and if I was playing cash, he would definitely be in my lineup. He doesn’t have the win equity as some of his other companions in this range but there is plenty in his favor. Furyk’s one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, has fantastic Green In Regulation numbers and has a great ability to dodge bogies. That’s why he’s #7 in my overall model and will be chalky but that’s okay. There are plenty of pivots in this range to get off the chalk if you wish, but again for cash only, he’s a lock in my mind. (Projected Ownership 17%, Exposure 17%)

Billy Horschel – $7,200

Vegas – 134/1

DGWR – 28th

Billy Ho has solid recent performances with three Top-25s in his last three events and he tends to always show up at the Open. He has four of five made cuts in this tournament with three Top-25 showings. His game is running on his irons right now with Horschel gaining more than one stroke over the last 10 rounds. Coming in strong with a 14th ranking in my overall model, I’ll make sure to have double the field in ownership, especially if it stays projected under 10 percent. (Projected Ownership 7%, Exposure 14%)

Tyrrell Hatton – $7,200

Vegas – 111/1

DGWR – 42nd

Hatton(24th) has an all-around T2G game, gaining strokes in each area. One of the better links players in the field, he’s a favorite of mine to land in the Top-20 this week, despite the lack of Pebble Beach experience. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 20%)

Lucas Glover – $7,000

Vegas – 138/1

DGWR – 27th

Another mispriced player according to Vegas, I’ll surely hop on with former winner here at the U.S. Open, though it was a decade ago. With a seventh and 11th finish here over his last two trips to Pebble Beach and solid recent form, he’s one of the models favorite golfers this week at 12th overall. (Projected Ownership 10%, Exposure 17%)

Zach Johnson – $7,000

Vegas – 159/1

DGWR – 69th

As recently as last year, he was playing at much a higher level than he is now, but that won’t stop me from having some shares. This is basically a GPP money-saver as it’s all banking on him regaining some old U.S. Open form. He’s ranked as my 25th overall and I feel that might be a little high, but I cannot tell you how many times I dropped a guy who I thought would flame out only to Top-30 and super-low ownership. I’ve learned to just play the name. (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 12%)

Keegan Bradley – $7,000

Vegas – 131/1

DGWR – 46th

He didn’t exactly go Full Keegan last week but it was disappointing nonetheless after leading through the first 18 holes. Bradley’s (26th) OTT and APP are always popping, but it’s his short game that leads him to trouble. At this price point, you’re just looking for a cut maker. He certainly has more risk built into him but with no MDF. If he can get past the cut, he could get hot and score you some points when others are scrambling to make par. (Projected Ownership 5%, Exposure 13%)

Byeong Hun An – $6,900

Vegas – 179/1

DGWR – 49th

Always a great golfer until he hits the green, especially Poa (-1.56 Strokes), Yikes! In his last event at The Memorial, he finished 17th with a POSITIVE putting performance, for once. If he can keep that momentum rolling with the flat stick at $6,900, he will be a steal! GPP ONLY!! (Projected Ownership 6%, Exposure 13%)

Charles Howell III – $6,900

Vegas – 169/1

DGWR – 41st

I cannot tell you the last time CH3 performed well. This is another bet on talent situation and price for that matter. He still boasts an around the green game, but that’s about it. This is really putting my trust to the test, as he’s ranked 21st in my model this week. Play at your own risk. (Projected Ownership 4%, Exposure 10%)

Danny Willett – $6,800

Vegas – 150/1

DGWR – 106th

A former major winner that’s starting to gain some of his prior form with three cuts made in a row and finished inside the Top-30 and Top-10. This will be the man that I put more stock in than I should and if I fail this week, it will be because of him. But oh well, let it ride for the 50^th-ranked golfer in my model!!! (Projected Ownership 7%, Exposure 18%)

Players that I like I am not using:

Erik Van Rooyen – $6900

Chez Reavie – $6900

Viktor Hovland – $6700

Last guy out of my player pool…Jason Day!!

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