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Russell Wilson

Week 14 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 14 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Aaron Rodgers, WAS vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,400)

Another week, another NFC East team with little-to-no chance to stop Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The Washington Redskins do not hold the ball enough and this smells like a dominant Packers performance where Aaron Rodgers shows why he is still one of the best passers in the league.

Delvin Hodges, PIT @ ARI

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,000)

Delvin Hodges has looked good in his limited action thus far this season. The Arizona Cardinals have been the worst against the pass as they have given up 307 yards and 31 touchdowns (both lead the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks are able to make big plays with 60 passes of at least 20 yards happening. Even with Juju Smith-Schuster looking like he won’t play, I can’t expect anything out of this Cardinal defense. Hodges isn’t going to dominate here, but he is a valuable option that won’t cost you.

Drew Brees, SF vs NO

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,700)

The first half of last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens has soured me a tiny bit off the 49ers. New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South and now it’s time for the Saints to try to capture a bye in the Wild Card round. San Francisco is one of the best against the passing game but it’s Drew Brees we are talking about. He’s one of the only quarterbacks I blindly follow no matter who is opposing Brees.

Week 14 Quarterback GPP Plays

Pat Mahomes, KC @ NE

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,400)

This one is the “hot take” choice because this one can burn you easily and the number one rule (Belichick eliminates your number one option). However, the one thing that the New England defense struggles with is speed and that was evident against the Ravens and Texans so far. The Chiefs are faster than either of those teams and Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship. Speed is the kryptonite this year and will take it until the Patriots show me otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, DET vs MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,200)

Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated this season with a 23:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In Week 7 when these two teams met, Cousins had one of his best games on the season. Detroit gives up the third-most passing yards per game and allowed 25 passing touchdowns through 12 games. With the weapons that Minnesota has offensively, expect a big game out of good ole’ Kirk Cousins.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,000)

The current runner-up to the MVP is definitely a solid quarterback option this week. Against the Rams in Week 5, Wilson torched them for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams don’t scare me as much as others that I am seeing. I don’t expect that type of performance but something in that ballpark wouldn’t be too eye-opening.

Week 14 Quarterback Fades

Gardner Minshew II, LAC vs JAX

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,600)

Minshew Mania is back as the Jaguars announced he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. However, it’s because of Nick Foles’ play and not because Minshew was the bright star off the bench. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the pass this season and should shut Minshew and the Jaguars passing game down this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,000)

After being viewed as the savior returning to the starting role and picking up Cincinnati’s first victory of the season, I don’t expect much from Dalton. The Bengals aren’t riding that emotional wave of Dalton’s return this week and the Browns are still in the Wild Card hunt. AJ Green will be out for this game as well. Cleveland is 6th in passing defense so don’t expect a lot from the Red Rifle.

Derek Carr, TEN vs OAK

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,000)

Derek Carr is coming off his worst game this season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders are struggling right now and have lost their identity. Carr has three consecutive games with at least one interception and I wouldn’t be shocked if he extended that streak. The Titans average just under an interception per game and should pick him off. They do not give up passing touchdowns or allow quarterbacks to get into a rhythm so don’t expect too much out of Derek Carr this week.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day

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Jameis Winston under 310.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 286.5 passing yards.

Indianapolis allows 226.9 passing yards per game and should control the clock in this game. I see a couple of Winston turnovers costing him the opportunity to reach 311 yards or more. Matt Ryan won’t get the chance either as the Panthers have fired Ron Rivera and will probably be run-heavy with a short week with their interim coach. Chrisitan McCaffrey should dominate this game and not give Ryan a lot of time with the ball.

5 years ago 0 comments

12/3 DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A look back at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 12/3 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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12/3 Win Daily DFS: Russell Wilson

Here’s a snippet from the Monday Night Football DFS Week 13 Showdown article from Andrew Erickson. Wilson went 21-of-31 for 240 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He also rushed four times for 13 yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Wilson had a huge second half of this game as he scored on five consecutive drives for a combined 27 points. He now has 26 touchdown passes to just four interceptions and should be in the consideration for the MVP. Expect more stellar games with the Cardinals and Panthers still on the schedule.

12/3 DFS Winner: Semyon Varlamov

Here is a little preview of what to expect from The Daily Hot Shot that Richard Masana writes every day. In both DraftKings and FanDuel, Semyon Varlamov was the best option at the goalie position. Going against the Detriot Red Wings, he saved 30-of-31 shots. The only goal was a power-play shot midway through the second period.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Varlamov currently sits in 10th place with a 2.39 goals-against average. He’s definitely worth the salary against lesser teams as he shouldn’t cost you too much and has a big upside. Expect Varlamov to sit around two goals given up a night.

12/3 DFS Winner: Nemanja Bjelica

Here is a snippet from the 12/3 NBA DFS Game Previews article from Brandon C. Williams. Going up against the Chicago Bulls, Bjelica had a solid all-around game. He finished with 18 points, eight rebounds, two assists, two blocks, and a steal.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the second-highest scoring game this season for Nemanja Bjelica. Bjelica is shooting 37 percent from behind the arc in his last 10 games played. He is a Top 100 player in the NBA and is definitely a great DFS value player to save some salary.

12/3 DFS Winner: Buffalo Sabres First Line

Here is another excerpt from the Daily Hot Shot. The Sabres dominated early and their first line was a major reason why. Jack Eichel had a goal and two assists and Victor Olofsson had a goal and assist.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Jack Eichel is going to be in the Top 10 in points, goals, and assists when the season ends. Sam Reinhart is improving each season and will be around mid-60s in points and Victor Olofsson is improving in his sophomore season. Expect 4-6 points a game from this line and the ability to have a hot start as they did in the first last night.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

DFS: Injury Fades and Plays

Richard Masana 5 years ago

written by Richard Masana

As I’ve said over and over again: every player is banged up to a certain extent at this point in the season. The key to winning at DFS is navigating the medical implications for said injuries. Enter the DFS Injury Fades and Plays article. Despite what I just said about the state of the NFL’s health, this week there are only a handful of decisions to make in terms of injuries as many guys have already been ruled out or are on bye. I’ll walk you through who those players are. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.

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Tyler Lockett ($7,400)

First up on the DFS Injury Fades and Plays is a guy who looks to be active on Sunday. Lockett was limited in practice all week, but coach Pete Carroll said on Friday that he’s now “good to go”. Keep in mind that although Lockett will probably be active, his effectiveness is not guaranteed. I’m extremely conservative with players coming back from serious injuries (e.g. Emmanuel Sanders in Week 11 playing through rib damage) and considering that he stayed in the hospital for two nights, I need a “prove it” game from him. Not to mention that from a strategy perspective, injuries alter game plans and there is a small chance he’s not as involved in the offensive scheme as we’re used to seeing. So, although I love Tyler Lockett on paper, he’s a fade for me in cash this week. The flip side is that he’s a great tournament play and the potential to pop off for 100 yards and 7 catches still exist. In reality, I’m really only eyeing Russell Wilson ($8,200) in cash for this game.

Alshon Jeffery ($6,200)

Jeffery was a limited practiced participant all week and is now questionable with an ankle injury. He’s a difficult player to prognosticate as this ankle injury has stubbornly stuck around for weeks now, meaning I’m not convinced that he can be that Alshon even if he plays. Despite all of those things, Jeffery still might give it a go due to the fact that fellow receiver Nelson Agholor might sit out with a knee injury, adding extra pressure for Jeffery to try and go. As a result, he’s a fade for me but his teammates Zach Ertz ($6,100) and Miles Sanders ($5,600) become cash and tournament plays respectively. I’m especially bullish on Miles Sanders in tournaments this week despite his dud against the Patriots due to the fact that Jordan Howard will once again be inactive. Additionally, Sanders is a big play waiting to happen. Another rarely discussed factor in situations such as this are injuries on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks’ star defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney did not practice all week, which significantly hurts a Seattle rushing defense that is just barely middle of the pack. Check back with me for an update on that.

Update: Alshon is inactive. Clowney is also inactive. Consider Ajayi as a tournament option.

Phillip Dorsett ($5,400)

Dorsett is still in the concussion protocol as of this morning, which means that he’s truly a game-time decision. Because of the fact that every concussion is unique and non-linear in nature in terms of recovery, I think this is the first time that the Patriots aren’t just playing whack-a-mole with the reports. It is concerning that Dorsett has not been cleared for contact and the fact that he participated in individual drills on Friday, though a good sign overall, does not guarantee he’s active on Sunday. With the added factor that Mohamed Sanu is a likely inactive (or will at least be limited), I believe this is a ceiling game for Julian Edelman ($7,500) so I’m more than okay using him in cash. His teammates, on the other hand, are fades if active.

Update: Mo Sanu’s ankle injury is of the high ankle variety and it seems like he’s pushing to play. Although it’s a valiant effort to say he’ll play, I would be shocked if he plays and even more shocked if he’s productive.

Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400)

Sanders was a risky play last week due to cartilage damage of his ribs and this week is no different. Last week he was painfully limited and it was cringe-worthy to watch. Ribs injuries are brutal to play through and Sanders showed us that last week. Enough times have not passed for Sanders to be significantly improved. So, even though I think San Francisco runs the ball against Green Bay, somebody has to catch the ball. Looking at you in tournaments Deebo Samuel ($6,200).

https://twitter.com/FFStudentDoc/status/1196204168949719040?s=20

George Kittle ($7,000)

Although Kittle is making steady progress in his recovery by practicing in a limited fashion all week, he is still reportedly wearing a non-contact jersey, which is not a great sign for his availability on Sunday. On the off chance that he does get activated, he’s merely a deep tournament play. Instead, I’m looking at Tevin Coleman ($6,300) in tournaments (and potentially cash depending on format) and his counterpart Raheem Mostert ($4,800) who will get the nod as Matt Breida is highly unlike to play. Why you ask? Because the Packers are 5th to last in rushing DVOA and this could become a game of keep away from Aaron Rodgers. Kittle is fade for me if he’s active (which I don’t necessarily expect).

Reports: The reports this morning are that Kittle has a fracture in his foot or ankle but will play tonight. I think that decision is extremely, ahem, not smart. I’m fading Kittle in all formats and willing to live with the consequences (even though I do not expect a productive day from him).

Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Make sure to follow up with me on Sunday morning for the final updated version!

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Image courtesy of Larry Maurer.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 12 Quarterback DFS Picks

Sean Escobar 5 years ago

written by Sean Escobar

The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct QB on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 12 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, SEA @ PHI

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,200)

Russell Wilson is dominating so far this season and is one of the MVP favorites. Wilson is averaging 274 yards through the air and Philadelphia is one of the middle-area passing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary is full of question marks and Wilson leads the league in touchdown passes (23) and tied for the lowest amount of interceptions by a starting quarterback (2). The Eagles are great against the run so expect Wilson to have an increased amount of attempts and continue dominating opposing defenses.

Kyle Allen, CAR @ NO

DK ($5,200) FD ($6,600)

Coming off of his worst game as a professional, Kyle Allen is looking for retribution. He already has a solid performance against the Saints from 2018. The Saints this season have been vulnerable to deep passes as they have given up eight passes of 40+ yards. Expect around 285 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Allen with the threat of Christian McCaffrey in the backfield taking up most of the defensive attention.

Jeff Driskel, DET @ WAS

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,300)

Jeff Driskel has played great in his two games this season against Chicago and Dallas. Going up against a subpar defense, Driskel should be the quarterback you target the most. Washington allows opposing quarterbacks 71.4 percent of passes, which leads the NFL. They also struggle to get to the quarterback as they are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks.

Week 12 Quarterback GPP Plays

Baker Mayfield, MIA vs CLE

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,500)

Baker Mayfield should have a field day against the Miami Dolphins. He has been heating up since Week 8. The Dolphins have just 13 sacks this season and have given up 23 passing touchdowns so far this season. Expect Mayfield to have upper-20s in completions with a lot of yardage. This should be the game that Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry both have great games, which makes Baker even more intriguing.

Drew Brees, NO @ CAR

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,500)

In the three games since returning from his injury, Brees is averaging 296 yards with six touchdowns. The Carolina Panthers are a middle-tier passing defense ranking in the low-teens in important statistical categories. With the weapons that Drew Brees has at his disposal, expect another huge statistical game with 30-plus completions.

Matt Ryan, TB vs ATL

DK ($6,700) FD ($7,900)

Ryan is averaging 27 completions and 296 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s passing defense isn’t good either as they give up the third-most completions and the second-most yards per game at 290.9. His 7.6 yards per attempt is also a huge reason why he should be in your lineup. The passing game of Atlanta with the subpar passing defense of Tampa has all the stars aligning for Matty Ice.

Week 12 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, DEN vs BUF

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,800)

Josh Allen isn’t a productive quarterback so far this season, with a 60.3 completion percentage. That ranks him tied for 42nd of all quarterbacks to have a pass attempt this season. Being behind Andy Dalton, Eli Manning and Mitchell Triubisky is not a good sign of accuracy. The Denver Broncos allows the fifth-fewest passing yards at 210 yards per game. He can have a decent game but nothing special, especially for the price Allen is demanding. He doesn’t turn the ball over but isn’t accurate enough to be on your DFS team.

Mitchell Trubisky, NYG vs CHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($7,000)

Trubisky’s price is low enough where I feel he could be a value option but my head is saying no chance. His season-high is 253 yards, which is pedestrian in today’s NFL. The New York Giants are coming off their bye week and the Bears will look to run the ball often as they run 40 percent of their plays. Too much of a risk to take Trubisky on this slate.

Tom Brady, DAL vs NE

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,700)

Tom Brady is not having a great year, especially by his own standards. He has not reached 300 yards passing since Week 6. He looked lost at times against the Philadelphia Eagles last week and the Dallas Cowboys have a better defense. Wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Phillip Dorsett look as if they will be ready for the game on Sunday, which limits how well he can do without many threats.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Matt Ryan over 304.5 yards and Jameis Winston under 300.5 yards

Matt Ryan is averaging 296 yards per game and the Buccaneers have the second-worst passing defense in the NFL. Jameis Winston is coming off an ankle sprain and the Atlanta Falcons give up 107 yards on the ground. It’s difficult to see Tampa not run the ball, especially with how they average 31 minutes on offense a game.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

The NFL DFS Week 12 Podcast with DFS Pro Javi & BCW focuses on DFS Pro Javi’s big weekend that brought him to the brink of very long green (think millions). The two also embark upon being the first wave to attack what will be a brutal Week 12 main slate.

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Week 12 NFL DFS With DFS Pro Javi & BCW

Among the other topics DFS Pro Javi & BCW discuss in the Week 12 Podcast is whether Eagles QB Carson Wentz is a good play following a frustrating Week 11 matchup against the Patriots, when is a good time to back away from Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey and if we have seen the end of Tom Brady as a Fantasy-viable option.

The duo also looks at how Raiders-Jets could be DFS gold and the challenge that will come from finding good plays in a schedule lacking in quality DFS matchups. DFS Pro Javi & BCW also talk about how Cowboys-Patriots is a must avoid game.

Thank you for listening to the NFL DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Monday Night Football DFS Week 10 Showdown Preview – Best Values and GPP Stacks

Andrew Erickson 5 years ago

written by Andrew Erickson

Welcome to another Monday night preview article. It will come along with a video to break down Monday Night Football in all things DFS. I will be covering value and punt plays, favorite stacks, and my contrarian play of the game. So who is ready for some Monday night action between the 49ers and Seahawks? All prices discussed are via DraftKings in their Monday Night Football Showdown Contest.

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https://youtu.be/7yIcybEL4aw

Value and Punt Plays

Tight end Ross Dwelley ($2,000) is the easy punt play in lineup builds with George Kittle doubtful for Monday night football. Dwelley should see the lion’s share of snaps Monday against Seattle. His price is too cheap for a starting player with significant playing time. The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and fifth-most receiving yards to tight end position this season. Dwelley ran just one fewer route than Kittle in Week 9.

Jaron Brown ($2,200) is interesting as he has three touchdown receptions in his last two games played versus the 49ers. Receiver David Moore ($1,200) has seen his snaps increase since Week 6. He has gone from 22.9%, 41.7%, and 49.2%, all the way up to 54.7% in Week 9. Brown’s snaps have decreased over that timespan.

Favorite Stack

With the 49ers favored by 6.5 points playing at home, the best stack to build with is quarterback Russell Wilson ($11,400). Wilson has been playing at an MVP level this season. In his last two games versus the 49ers, Wilson has thrown for a total of six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The obvious stacks to build Wilson around are the top Seahawks passing weapons in Tyler Lockett ($10,400), DK Metcalf ($7,800), and Chris Carson ($8,600).

Now Lockett and Metcalf both have tougher matchups with the 49ers allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the receiver position this season. I would prefer Lockett. He has scored at least 12 fantasy points in seven games this season. In seven of those games, Metcalf has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of them. You should have at least one build with both receivers, but I would not force Metcalf in. Worth noting Lockett has not surpassed 65 receiving yards in his last four games versus the 49ers.

Adding Carson makes a ton of sense because it gives you total market equity of the Seahawks potential touchdowns. The 49ers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to backs over the past two weeks and will be without starting linebacker Kwon Alexander. I like Carson as an option in the captain spot because of his floor usage in the passing game and his touchdown upside. He also averages more points on the road (19) than at home (16). Going heavy Seahawks on offense I believe is the right play and bringing it back with Emmanuel Sanders ($10,200) and/or Deebo Samuel ($4,800). Seattle has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers over the past two weeks.

49ers Running Game

You will also want to have shares of 49ers running backs Tevin Coleman ($8,200) and Matt Breida ($6,200). After multi-game absences, left tackle Joe Staley (lower leg), fullback Kyle Juszczyk (knee) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (knee) all returned to practice Tuesday and have a shot at returning for an important divisional matchup on Monday Night Football. If these guys return you need to increase your exposure to the 49ers running game. Both Coleman and Breida have scored significantly more points at home than on the road this season. Breida has averaged 16 fantasy points per game at home versus just 9.4 on the road. Meanwhile, Coleman has averaged 28.3 fantasy points per game at home versus 8.9 on the road.

Contrarian Plays

Without Alexander, the 49ers could find themselves extremely vulnerable versus tight ends. According to PFF, Alexander against the pass ranked eighth in pass coverage and second in passer rating against. That is why the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position. Things get more complicated here though because the Seahawks have multiple tight ends that could be featured or used. Jacob Hollister ($4,600) is the more obvious play with Luke Willson ($200) nothing more than a punt. Hollister has run the third-most routes (68) on the Seahawks over the past three weeks.

Kicker Chase McLaughlin ($3,600) is the backup kicker to Robbie Gould who is going to miss this game. The 49ers rank fourth in the NFL in field goal attempts per game (2.5), and Seattle allows the fourth-most field goal attempts per game (2.4). Previously with the Chargers, McLaughlin averaged seven points per game in four starts.

A lot of people will play Jimmy Garoppolo ($11,000) because of his matchup on paper trumps Wilson’s. Seattle has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position over the past four weeks. But with the 49ers always wanting to run the ball (57.00% run play selection at home), I do not think he has the upside. He’s a fade for me. Seahawks DST ($3,200) is not good but could be a nice contrarian play. The 49ers at home have been averaging two giveaways per game.

In terms of Josh Gordon ($5,400), there’s a chance he does not even play, but I am not even sure what is ceiling would even be in this game. Coming off an ankle injury he is an easy fade for me.

Image via Brook Ward

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS, AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 8 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Week 8 DFS QB Picks gives us some odd names to consider in a week of odd matchups. The main slate of games means we are denied Redskins-Vikings (Thursday night), Packers-Chiefs (Sunday night) and the epic Ryan Fitzpatrick v. Mason Rudolph clash (Dolphins-Steelers) on Monday night.

The bye week means no Lamar Jackson (Ravens) nor Dak Prescott (Cowboys)

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Week 8 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA @ ATL

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,600)

Yes, he’s expensive, but he’s second only to Deshaun Watson in Fantasy points per game at DraftKings (25.4) and gets the delicious matchup against a Falcons defense that allows the most Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. In a dome, no less.

Wilson is fifth in both average depth per target (9.6) and air yards per pass completion (7.8 yards). Keep in mind the Falcons have the fifth-worst Fantasy defense against opposing receivers, giving up a 77.7% completion rate and 1.4 TDs per game. This is one case where the high investment reaps monster returns.

2) Teddy Bridgewater, NO vs. ARI

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

The question hovering over Bridgewater is whether the Saints activate Drew Brees in time for this start. If not, I love the prospects of Bridgewater putting up numbers beyond his game management-like totals, although 281 yards and two scores on the road against the Bears isn’t exactly Bob Griese’s Super Bowl totals.

Bridgewater isn’t known for his running skills, but this might be the week he offers the added bonus of a rushing TD. Not only are the Cardinals the fourth-worst defense against opposing quarterbacks, they also help/hurt their cause by allowing 27.9 yards per game on the ground to passers. Brees is returning sooner or later, but I’m thinking it won’t be Week 8, so run with Bridgewater.

3) Josh Allen, BUF vs. PHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

It’s Allen’s turn to pad his Fantasy numbers against the Eagles, who have played a lot worse than the ranking of 21st they currently own against opposing quarterbacks. Philly is giving up 287.9 yards and two touchdowns per game, numbers that would be higher if you took away the gimme that was the Jets. That the Eagles also have the worst Fantasy defense against the opposition’s wide receivers all but makes Allen and John Brown a dreamy pair in Week 8.

The Eagles did allow a rushing touchdown to Dak Prescott on Sunday night, which only enhances Allen’s upside. My bet is there’s a season-high coming with Allen, who should easily eclipse his current season-best of 254 yards passing.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,400)

Similar to Wilson in that he’s going to be costly, Watson is also in a can’t avoid matchup at home taking on a Raiders defense that gave up five touchdown passes to Aaron Rodgers in Week 7. Rodgers also scored a rushing touchdown, something that’s right down Watson’s alley, as he remains on pace to account for double-digit rushing scores.

Oakland is the third-worst defense when it comes to slowing down opposing QBs. Although Watson’s home/road splits are more road friendly, I’ll take him at NRG Stadium. He’s sixth in pass yards after the catch (890), a total that could be hampered by the loss of WR Will Fuller.

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Week 8 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. NYG

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

Stafford is third in the league with average depth of target of 10.3, one of only three QBs (Jameis Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) over 10 yards per ADOT. The Giants are a modest 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, but with RB Kerryon Johnson likely to miss this game, count on Stafford to approach 35-40 attempts.

2) Jared Goff, LAR vs. CIN

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,000)

We are born-again believers of Goff, who will get another favorable matchup versus a Bengals team that is ninth-worst against opposing quarterbacks. To their credit, the Bengals give up just 1.3 TD passes per game but their 50.3 rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks drag their overall numbers down. Goff is one of two QBs who have been blitzed at least 100 times (oddly enough, he’ll be facing Andy Dalton, who happens to be the other QB).

3) Tom Brady, NE vs. CLE

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,900)

In a Sentence: Fifth with 1,122 air yards, those numbers will go higher the addition of WR Mohamed Sanu.

4) Derek Carr, OAK @ HOU

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Season-best 10.1 yards per attempt last week, Carr should equal — if not exceed — against the Texans, who have the fifth-worst Fantasy defense against QBs.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI @ BUF

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Now sixth in air yards per pass completion, Wentz will likely find himself in catch-up mode, so watch the numbers pile up in vain.

6) Kyler Murray, ARI @ NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Boom-bust play, yet I like the chances of boom if WR Christian Kirk is healthy and able to stretch a Saints D ranked 20th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers.

7) Gardner Minshew II, JAX vs. NYJ

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: His two best Fantasy games this season have come when he’s averaged better than eight yards per attempt.

8) Philip Rivers, LAC @ CHI

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

In a Sentence: Has averaged at least 23.62 FanDuel points in each of his previous three road games.

9) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. DEN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,500)

In a Sentence: Three straight games of at least 23.65 FanDuel points at home.

10) Andy Dalton, CIN @ LAR

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Squirt gun production from the running game means Dalton will continue his stretch of at least 36 pass attempts, which happens to be his low water mark for 2019.

Week 7 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Ryan Tannehill, TEN vs. TB

DK ($5,400), FD ($6,900)

In a Sentence: Buccaneers allow 318.5 passing yards per game, and Tannehill did make the Titans receivers look good in the win over the Chargers…

2) Daniel Jones, NYG @ DET

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,000)

In a Sentence: I’ll buy into the fact he’ll produce due to RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram being a week healthier.

3) Jameis Winston, TB @ TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: Turnovers aside (it was one bad game), Winston has averaged at least seven yards per attempt in each of his last five games.

4) Kyle Allen, CAR @ SF

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

In a Sentence: Has yet to throw an INT, but the 224.5 passing yards per game will have to eventually come up to keep Cam Newton at bay.

5) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. CAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,400)

In a Sentence: One game of better than 20 Fantasy points this season.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 6 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.

Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,400)

Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.

Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA at CLE

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.

Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU at KC

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.

3) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. PHI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.

5) Gardner Minshew, JAC vs. NO

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.

Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.

6) Andy Dalton, CIN at BAL

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.

Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.

7) Carson Wentz, PHI at MIN

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.

Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?

8) Jared Goff, LAR vs. SF

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.

Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.

9) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.

Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.

10) Dak Prescott, DAL at NYJ

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).

Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.

Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Josh Rosen, MIA vs. WAS

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)

The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CIN

DK ($6,900), FD ($8,000)

Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, NO at JAC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at DEN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,500)

Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.

5) Joe Flacco, DEN vs. TEN

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,600)

At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.

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5 years ago 0 comments

NFL MLB

10/4 DFS and Betting Winners: Our Wagering Experts are on Fire!

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Thursday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season. All that and more on the 10/4 DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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10/4 Betting Winners – Capper Steve

As a Premium Gold subscriber, you’ll get access to a multitude of exclusive content. One of the key aspects you get is Sports Betting Picks by Capper Steve. As you can see in the screenshot above, Capper Steve was 5-0 on his picks for last night. If you were to follow all his bets shown, you’d have an additional 10 units. .

10/4 DFS Winner: Russell Wilson

Premium Gold members have access to our NFL Projection Model and above is a screenshot from it. Here are the Top 10 quarterbacks on the Week 5 slate. Russell Wilson was phenomenal on Thursday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams, going 17-of-23 with 268 yards and four touchdown passes. He also ran the ball eight times for 32 yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the fifth-highest QBR rating for a quarterback in a game this season. Wilson looked great and is arguably the most overlooked quarterback in the NFL. In his last 19 games, he has 42 touchdowns to four interceptions. With the balanced passing attack of Seattle, they are a difficult team to stop.

10/3 Betting Winner: Phil Naessens

For the second consecutive night, Phil Naessens hit on a pair of NHL lines as both the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers won their season openers. Phil has daily bets in his Cash with the Flash Premium Gold articles and is consistently adding to your bankrolls with these picks. If you are a fan of extra money, you have to be checking these wagering experts on a consistent basis.

10/4 DFS Winner: Gerald Everett

Another NFL Projection Model snapshot of players that have a similar price tag to Gerald Everett of the Rams. The tight end had seven catches (11 targets) for 136 yards.

Outlook for the rest of the season: This was the first game where Everett had over 45 receiving yards. As the backup tight end on the team’s official depth chart, this was a standout game. The Rams could use better production out of their tight ends so expect more quality outings from Everett.

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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